principal investigators (pis) dr. paul mohai dr. byoung-suk kweon post-doctoral research fellow

Using Combined Air Toxic Concentrations to Discern Patterns of School

Absenteeism and Academic Performance

Principal Investigators (PIs)Dr. Paul Mohai

Dr. Byoung-Suk Kweon

Post-doctoral Research FellowDr. Sangyun Lee

April 13, 2011

School of Natural Resources & EnvironmentUniversity of Michigan

Sponsor The Kresge Foundation

Locations of 3660 public schools in the State of Michigan in 2007

2

Total Air Toxic Concentrations from Industrial Sources (RSEI-GM) in the State of Michigan

(Total of All Chemicals in 2006)

3

Total Air Toxic Concentrations from Industrial Sources (RSEI-GM) in the State of Michigan

(Total of All Chemicals in the Top 10 Percentile)

4

2006 Toxic Concentration Contours in Michigan(For Manganese)

About 30% of cells have zero toxic concentration

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2006 Toxic Concentration Contours in Michigan(For Manganese and Top 10 Percentile)

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2006 Toxic Concentration Contours in Michigan(For Lead)

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2006 Toxic Concentration Contours in Michigan(For Lead and Top 10 Percentile)

8

Estimating toxic air concentrations from industrial sources (RSEI-GM) within 2 km of schools

using areal apportionment

Estimating toxic air concentrations from industrial sources (RSEI-GM) within 2 km of schools

using areal apportionment

Mean air toxic concentration within 2 km circle of the school =

∑ %CGi * TCi

%CGi = Percent of area of the 2 km circle captured by grid celliTCi = Total toxic concentration in grid celli

n

i=1

9

Data obtained from Scorecard: http://www.scorecard.org.

Top 12 chemicals in areas within 2 km of schoolsand identified adverse health effects

Developmental

Cardiovascular

Carcinogenic

Respiratory

Neurological

Diisocyanates Yes

Manganese Yes Yes

Sulfuric Acid Yes

Nickel Yes Yes Yes Yes

Chlorine Yes Yes Yes

Chromium Yes Yes

Trimethyl-benzene

Yes Yes Yes

Hydrochloric Acid

Yes

Molybdenum trioxide

Yes Yes Yes

Lead Yes Yes Yes Yes

Cobalt Yes Yes Yes

Glycol Ethers Yes Yes Yes Yes

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11

Deciles of TC by land

area (sq km)

SchoolsAll

Students White

Students

African American Students

Hispanic Students

Students in Free Lunch

Program

(%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%)

1st Decile65 16,754 13,228 170 129 5,732

(1.78) (1.03) (1.14) (0.05) (0.17) (1.19)

2nd Decile 78 23,118 21,793 193 405 7,043

(2.13) (1.42) (1.88) (0.06) (0.53) (1.46)

3rd Decile95 32,269 30,354 337 537 9,441

(2.60) (1.98) (2.61) (0.10) (0.71) (1.96)

4th Decile147 50,165 46,124 1,173 1,370 11,666

(4.02) (3.08) (3.97) (0.36) (1.81) (2.43)

5th Decile182 71,208 63,349 2,074 3,274 15,978

(4.97) (4.37) (5.45) (0.64) (4.32) (3.32)

6th Decile233 100,045 89,117 4,064 3,921 21,319

(6.37) (6.14) (7.67) (1.26) (5.18) (4.43)

7th Decile268 109,229 87,444 14,545 3,946 28,470

(7.32) (6.70) (7.53) (4.51) (5.21) (5.92)

8th Decile305 129,906 113,023 8,315 4,700 30,525

(8.33) (7.97) (9.73) (2.58) (6.21) (6.35)

9th Decile514 233,399 181,574 28,641 10,413 51,645

(14.04) (14.32) (15.63) (8.89) (13.75) (10.74)

10th Decile1,773 863,629 515,839 262,685 47,046 298,984

(48.44) (52.99) (44.40) (81.53) (62.11) (62.18)Total 3660 1,629,722 1,161,845 322,197 75,741 480,803

Deciles of toxic air concentrations (TC) by land area in Michigan and school-based demographics

Deciles of toxic air concentrations (TC) by land area in Michigan and school-based demographics

Based on 2006 RSEI-GM

Percent of Students Not Meeting MEAP Standards by Quintiles of Total Air Toxic Concentrations

Percent of Students Not Meeting MEAP Standards by Quintiles of Total Air Toxic Concentrations

12

MEAP scores are for 2007. Total air toxic concentrations are for 2006. Percent of students not meeting MEAP standards are based on averages across all schools in Michigan.

English

Math

Toxicity Quintiles 1st


Regression analysis of percent of students not meeting English MEAP standards by quintiles of total air toxic

concentrations

13

English (N=2633)Model 1 Model 2

Beta Sig Beta Sig

1st Quintile

2nd Quintile 0.034 -0.013

3rd Quintile -0.002 -0.019

4th Quintile 0.173*** 0.042*

5th Quintile 0.385*** 0.052**

Rural

Central cities 0.071***

suburbs 0.100***

Attendance rates -0.097***

Expenditure per pupil -0.010

#Students (100) 0.068***

Student/Teacher Ratio 0.030*

%Free lunch students 0.661***

R2 0.135*** 0.572**** p<0.05; ** p<0.01; *** p<0.001•Grades 3rd to 8th combined

Regression analysis of percent of students not meeting math MEAP standards by quintiles of total air toxic concentrations

14* p<0.05; ** p<0.01; *** p<0.001•Grades 3rd to 8th combined

Math (N=2633)Model 1 Model 2

Beta Sig Beta Sig

1st Quintile

2nd Quintile 0.025 -0.026

3rd Quintile -0.005 -0.029

4th Quintile 0.149*** 0.022

5th Quintile 0.361*** 0.051*

Rural

Central cities 0.025

suburbs 0.097***



#Students (100) 0.130***

Student/Teacher Ratio 0.053***


R2 0.120*** 0.478***

Regression analysis of school attendance rates by quintiles of total air toxic concentrations

N=3417Model 1 Model 2

Beta Sig Beta Sig

1st Quintile -- -- -- --

2nd Quintile -0.021 -0.012

3rd Quintile -0.028 -0.042 ***

4th Quintile -0.099 *** -0.080 ***

5th Quintile -0.243 *** -0.129 ***

Rural -- --

Central cities -0.086 ***

Suburbs 0.066 **

Expenditure per pupil 0.042 **

#Students (100) 0.026

Student/Teacher Ratio -0.113 ***

%Free lunch students -0.249 ***

R2 0.049 *** 0.167 ***

* p<0.05; ** p<0.01; *** p<0.001

Percent of students not meeting MEAP standards by quintiles of manganese concentrations

Percent of students not meeting MEAP standards by quintiles of manganese concentrations

18

MEAP scores are for 2007. Concentrations of manganese are for 2006 RSEI. Percent of students not meeting MEAP standards are based on averages across all schools in Michigan.

English

Math



Percent of students not meeting MEAP standards by quintiles of lead concentrations

Percent of students not meeting MEAP standards by quintiles of lead concentrations

19

MEAP scores are for 2007. Concentrations of lead are for 2006 RSEI. Percent of students not meeting MEAP standards are based on averages across all schools in Michigan.

English

Math



Regression analysis of % of students not meeting English MEAP standards by manganese and lead concentrations

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Beta Sig Beta SigLow lead-low mang. -- -- Low lead-med. mang. -0.027 0.006 Low lead-high mang. -0.043* 0.003 Med. lead-low mang. -0.012 0.008 Med. lead-med. mang. 0.046* 0.040*Med. lead-high mang. 0.083*** 0.043** High lead-low mang. -0.024 -0.014 High lead-med. mang. 0.056** -0.004 High lead-high mang. 0.381*** 0.052** Rural -- Central cities 0.087***suburbs 0.063** Attendance rates -0.103***Expenditure per pupil -0.011 #Students (100) 0.071***Student/Teacher Ratio 0.030*%Free lunch students 0.672***R2 0.142*** 0.571***

* p<0.05; ** p<0.01; *** p<0.001•Grades 3rd to 8th combined

Regression analysis of % of students not meeting Math MEAP standards by manganese and lead concentrations

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Beta Sig Beta SigLow lead-low mang. -- -- Low lead-med. mang. -0.029 -0.002 Low lead-high mang. -0.041* -0.003 Med. lead-low mang. -0.009 0.008 Med. lead-med. mang. 0.039 0.031 Med. lead-high mang. 0.078*** 0.040* High lead-low mang. -0.022 -0.012 High lead-med. mang. 0.053* -0.010 High lead-high mang. 0.355*** 0.053** Rural -- Central cities 0.081***suburbs 0.015 Attendance rates -0.119***Expenditure per pupil -0.005 #Students (100) 0.133***Student/Teacher Ratio 0.052***%Free lunch students 0.577***R2 0.125*** 0.477***

* p<0.05; ** p<0.01; *** p<0.001•Grades 3rd to 8th combined

Respiratory risk contours in the state of Michigan (2005 National Air Toxics Assessment)

Contours based on accumulated area (in square kilometers) of census tracts in ascending order of respiratory risk ratio from 2005 NATA

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Respiratory risk contours of the 10th decile in the state of Michigan (2005 National Air Toxics Assessment)

Contours based on accumulated area (in square kilometers) of census tracts in ascending order of respiratory risk ratio from 2005 NATA

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Estimating respiratory risk ratios (NATA) within 2 km of schools using areal apportionment

Estimating respiratory risk ratios (NATA) within 2 km of schools using areal apportionment

Mean respiratory risk ratio within 2 km circle of the school =

∑ %CTi * RRRi

%CTi = Percent of the area of the circle captured tracti

RRRi = Respiratory risk ratio for tracti

n

i=1

24

Deciles of RRR by land area

(sq km)

SchoolsAll

Students White

Students

African American Students

Hispanic Students

Students in Free Lunch

Program

(%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%)

1st Decile29 4986 3876 26 27 1264

(0.79) (0.31) (0.33) (0.01) (0.04) (0.26)

2nd Decile 23 5618 4681 35 34 2073

(0.63) (0.34) (0.40) (0.01) (0.04) (0.43)

3rd Decile44 10083 9230 86 57 2971

(1.20) (0.62) (0.79) (0.03) (0.08) (0.62)

4th Decile105 25863 23950 220 384 9180

(2.87) (1.59) (2.06) (0.07) (0.51) (1.91)

5th Decile97 29960 28073 347 624 9606

(2.65) (1.84) (2.42) (0.11) (0.82) (2.00)

6th Decile144 43507 40567 696 1267 14787

(3.93) (2.67) (3.49) (0.22) (1.67) (3.08)

7th Decile197 66021 60557 771 3047 18647

(5.38) (4.05) (5.21) (0.24) (4.02) (3.88)

8th Decile289 108515 98786 2289 4759 26214

(7.90) (6.66) (8.50) (0.71) (6.28) (5.45)

9th Decile484 208595 188342 7260 7513 43518

(13.22) (12.80) (16.21) (2.25) (9.92) (9.05)

10th Decile2248 1126574 703783 310467 58029 352543

(61.42) (69.13) 60.57 96.36 (76.62) (73.32)Total 3,660 1,629,722 1,161,845 322,197 75,741 480,803

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Deciles of respiratory risk ratio in Michigan and school-based demographics

Deciles of respiratory risk ratio in Michigan and school-based demographics

Respiratory risk ratios are based on 2005 National Air Toxics Assessment (NATA) and includes major, area, on-road mobile, non-road mobile, and background sources

Percent of Students Not Meeting MEAP Standards by Quintiles of Respiratory Risks

Percent of Students Not Meeting MEAP Standards by Quintiles of Respiratory Risks

26

MEAP scores are for 2007. Respiratory risks are for 2005. Percent of students not meeting MEAP standards are based on averages across all schools in Michigan.

Regression analysis of percent of students not meeting English MEAP standards by quintiles of total respiratory risk

27* p<0.05; ** p<0.01; *** p<0.001•Grades 3rd to 8th combined


Beta Sig Beta Sig

1st Quintile -- --

2nd Quintile -0.093*** -0.028

3rd Quintile -0.004 -0.017

4th Quintile 0.065** 0.003

5th Quintile 0.379*** 0.105***

Rural --

Central cities 0.059*

suburbs 0.104***



#Students (100) 0.061***

Student/Teacher Ratio 0.028*


R2 0.165*** 0.587***

Regression analysis of percent of students not meeting math MEAP standards by quintiles of total respiratory risk

28

* p<0.05; ** p<0.01; *** p<0.001

•Grades 3rd to 8th combined


Beta Sig Beta Sig

1st Quintile -- --

2nd Quintile -0.088*** -0.042

3rd Quintile -0.008 -0.044

4th Quintile 0.048* -0.034

5th Quintile 0.345*** 0.073**

Rural --

Central cities 0.033

suburbs 0.120***



#Students (100) 0.127***



R2 0.138*** 0.483***

Regression analysis of school attendance rates by quintiles of total respiratory risks

N=3417Model 1 Model 2

Beta Sig Beta Sig

1st Quintile -- -- -- --

2nd Quintile 0.064** 0.019

3rd Quintile 0.034* 0.025

4th Quintile 0.019 0.012

5th Quintile -0.209*** -0.132***

Rural -- --

Central cities -4.204***

Suburbs 1.838

Expenditure per pupil 0.029**

#Students (100) 0.026



R2 0.060*** 0.175***

* p<0.05; ** p<0.01; *** p<0.001

principal investigators (pis) dr. paul mohai dr. byoung-suk kweon post-doctoral research fellow

Documents

total toxic concentration

toxic concentration

percent of students

percent of area

english meap standards

math meap standards

industrial sources rseigm

michiganfor lead