primer 119 2010-17 dr. walter hays global alliance for disaster reduction [email protected]
TRANSCRIPT
PRIMER 119 2010-17
Dr. Walter Hays Global Alliance For Disaster
Reduction
PRIMER 119 2010-17
Dr. Walter Hays Global Alliance For Disaster
Reduction
INTEGRATING THE PAST WITH THE PRESENT
A PRIMER OF KNOWLEDGE THAT CAN MULTIPLY AND SPILL OVER FOR THE BENEFIT OF MILLIONS
LEST WE FORGET OUR PAST …
AND SIMILAR EVENTS RECUR AND FIND US
UNPREPARED
MAIN IDEA
• A lot of the UNCERTAINTY in future emergency response and recovery phases will be eliminated if we can make:
• The VIRTUAL REALITY derived from EARTHQUAKE SCENARIOS
• Look like REALITY.
YOUR YOUR COMMUNITYCOMMUNITY
YOUR YOUR COMMUNITYCOMMUNITY
DATA BASES DATA BASES AND INFORMATIONAND INFORMATIONDATA BASES DATA BASES AND INFORMATIONAND INFORMATION
HAZARDS: GROUND SHAKING GROUND FAILURE SURFACE FAULTING TECTONIC DEFORMATION TSUNAMI RUN UP AFTERSHOCKS
•HAZARD MAPS•INVENTORY•VULNERABILITY•LOCATION
RISK ASSESSMENTRISK ASSESSMENT
RISK
ACCEPTABLE RISK
UNACCEPTABLE RISK
RISK MANAGEMENTRISK MANAGEMENT
•MITIGATION•PREPAREDNESS•EMERGENCY RESPONSE•RECOVERY and RECONSTRUCTION
POLICY OPTIONSPOLICY OPTIONS
EVERY ELEMENT IN A COMMUNITY CAN BE EVERY ELEMENT IN A COMMUNITY CAN BE MADE EARTHQUAKE RESILIENTMADE EARTHQUAKE RESILIENT
EVERY ELEMENT IN A COMMUNITY CAN BE EVERY ELEMENT IN A COMMUNITY CAN BE MADE EARTHQUAKE RESILIENTMADE EARTHQUAKE RESILIENT
STRATEGY
• PREVENTION
• MITIGATION
• DISASTER PLANNING SCENARIOS
• EMERGENCY RESPONSE
• RECOVERY
• RECONSTRUCTION
STRATEGY
• PREVENTION
• MITIGATION
• DISASTER PLANNING SCENARIOS
• EMERGENCY RESPONSE
• RECOVERY
• RECONSTRUCTION
TECHNOLOGY BASE
TECHNOLOGY BASE
RISK REDUCTION STRATEGIES
POSTDISASTER INVESTIGATIONS
POSTDISASTER INVESTIGATIONS
RESEARCHRESEARCH
8
California Catastrophic Disaster Planning Scenario
•Major impact to large metropolitan areas
•Consequences would eclipse Katrina
•Large area of impact - 155,959 Sq. Miles
•Highly populated areas - 36M+
•Significant earthquake risk throughout State
9
California Catastrophic Disaster Planning Scenario
•Tsunami risk
•Mass Evacuation
•Significant infrastructure impacts
•Response problems due to roadway collapse/blockage
•Estimated loss -- > $400B
SCENARIO EARTHQUAKES IN CALIFORNIA
ADVANCE PLANNING SO THAT CALIFORNIA WILL BE READY WHEN THE INEVITABLE “BIG ONES” RECUR
Source: US Geological Survey
• Because of its location in the densely populated Bay area of 7 million people, an earthquake on the Hayward fault is likely to be one of the nation's biggest natural disasters.
• A Hayward fault earthquake potentially affects 5 million people, and damages homes, schools, senior centers, hospitals, businesses, the Bay bridge, and the campus of UC Berkeley.
• A M 7.0 earthquake on the Hayward fault will cause an estimated $210 billion dollars in damage. • The region's transportation infrastructure and water delivery systems will take a major hit.
The goal in the ShakeOut Scenario is to identify the physical, social and economic consequences of a major earthquake in southern California , and in so doing, enable end users to identify what they can change now—before the earthquake—in order to avoid catastrophic impacts after the inevitable earthquake occurs.
• The magnitude 7.8 ShakeOut earthquake causes about 1800 deaths and $213 billion of economic losses.
• These numbers are as low as they are because of aggressive retrofitting programs that have increased the seismic resistance of buildings, highways and lifelines, and added economic resiliency.
• The estimates of about 1800 deaths and $213 billion of economic losses are as large as they are because much more retrofitting could still be done.
NEW MADRID SEISMIC ZONE SCENARIO
JUNE 2010 AND MARCH 2008
ASSUMPTIONS: M7.7
2:00 AMhttp://mae.cee.illinois.edu/news/reportusa2.html
EARTHQUAKE SCENARIO
• A COMPREHENSIVE INTEGRATION OF KNOWLEDGE FROM GEOLOGY, GEOPHYSICS, SEISMOLOGY, DEMOGRAPHY, ARCHITECTURE, CIVIL ENGINEERING, AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT IN A RISK ASSESSMENT MODEL LIKE HAZUS-MH
• Based on Increased Scientific and Engineering Knowledge and Regional Demographic Changes, … and
• A continuing dialog sampled in a Regional Workshop, March 17-19, 2008
• Mid-America Earthquake Center, Report 08-02
The New Madrid Seismic Zone covers parts of eight states: Alabama, Mississippi, Arkansas, Illinois, Indiana, Missouri, Kentucky, and Tennessee.It was the source of four great earthquakes (M8.0 to 8.8) in 1811-1812.
INTEGRATED GROUND SHAKING HAZARD MODEL
INTEGRATED GROUND SHAKING HAZARD MODEL
NMSZ: ONE OF WORLD’S LARGEST LIQUEFACTION FIELDS
NMSZ: ONE OF WORLD’S LARGEST LIQUEFACTION FIELDS
34
St. Louis 1.5-2 Million
Rural Pop.8-9 million160–200 Cities
Memphis 1-1.5 Million
MO
IL IN
KY
TN
ALMS
AR
New Madrid Seismic Zone Catastrophic Disaster Planning Scenario
Approximately 12 million people at high risk
•Consequences eclipse Katrina
• impact area - 126,575 Sq Miles
•44M people in eight-State region
•Multiple jurisdictions and Governors
Directly Impacted States
Indirectly Impacted States
35
St. Louis 1.5-2 Million
Rural Pop.8-9 million160–200 Cities
Memphis 1-1.5 Million
MO
IL IN
KY
TN
ALMS
AR
New Madrid Seismic Zone Catastrophic Disaster Planning Scenario
Approximately 12 million people at high risk
•Significant loss of infrastructure
•Response problems hindered by long aftershock sequence
•Estimated loss -- $300B+
•Severe weather & evacuation issues
Directly Impacted States
Indirectly Impacted States
36
St. Louis 1.5-2 Million
Rural Pop.8-9 million160–200 Cities
Memphis 1-1.5 Million
MO
IL IN
KY
TN
ALMS
AR
New Madrid Seismic Zone Catastrophic Disaster Planning Scenario
Approximately 12 million people at high risk
•Nearly 86,000 total casualties
•3,500 fatalities
•Estimated loss -- $300B+
Directly Impacted States
Indirectly Impacted States
MEMPHIS, TN: AT RISK
Damage and loss estimates and the planning assumptions are predicated on the occurrence of a magnitude 7.7 earthquake at 2:00 am.
The epicenter is assumed to be located approximately 33 miles North North-West of Memphis, TN.
The geography of the multi-state area will change dramatically as a consequence of liquefaction and landslides.
The most notable changes will occur in and around the Mississippi River and other rivers within the Mississippi River drainage basin.
715,000 buildings will sustain heavy damage , and 100,000 will be completely destroyed from strong ground shaking.
Damage will occur over a wide area, especially in locations underlain by soft soil. Multiple fires will occur throughout the area.
Utilities will be interrupted, leaving 2.5 MILLION without power, and water, gas, and waste disposal outages will occur over a wide area.
Critical infrastructure (power plants, dams) throughout the region will be seriously compromised
Essential infrastructure (schools, universities, hospitals) throughout the region will be seriously compromised
Transportation systems (highways, bridges, airports, river traffic) throughout the region will be seriously compromised
Communications throughout the region will be seriously compromised
The State of Tennessee incurs the highest level of damage and social impacts. Over 250,000 buildings are moderately or severely damaged.
Over 260,000 people are displaced and over 80,000 casualties (injuries and fatalities) are expected.
Total direct economic losses surpass $56 billion.
Well over 80,000 buildings are damaged leaving more than 120,000 people displaced.Over 15,000 casualties.
Total direct economic losses in Missouri reach nearly $40 billion.
Total direct economic losses surpass $56 billion.
Well over 80,000 buildings are damaged leaving more than 120,000 people displaced.Over 15,000 casualties.
Total direct economic losses in Missouri reach nearly $40 billion.
HAZARDSHAZARDSHAZARDSHAZARDS
ELEMENTS OF A SCENARIOELEMENTS OF A SCENARIOELEMENTS OF A SCENARIOELEMENTS OF A SCENARIO
EXPOSUREEXPOSUREEXPOSUREEXPOSURE
VULNERABILITYVULNERABILITYVULNERABILITYVULNERABILITY LOCATIONLOCATIONLOCATIONLOCATION
RISKRISKRISKRISK