PREVIEW

Racing Post Wednesday, August 1, 2018 3

PREMIER LEAGUE

Wednesday, August 1, 2018 racingpost.com2 THE BIG KICK-OFF

THE RACE FOR THE TITLECONTENTSPremier Leagueby Mark LangdonThe race for the title ........ 2-3Divisional selections ....... 2-3Team-by-team guide .....6-23Relegation ....................24-25Match betting ................... 26Handicaps ......................... 27Sack race ........................... 28Specials ............................. 30Top scorer ....................36-37

Championshipby Dan ChildsThe race for the title ......... 42Relegation ......................... 44Top scorer ......................... 46Team verdicts ................... 47

League Oneby Steve DaviesThe race for the title ......... 48Relegation ........................ 49Top scorer ......................... 50Team verdicts ................... 51

League Twoby Aaron AshleyRace for the title ............... 52Relegation ......................... 53Top scorer ......................... 54Team verdicts ................... 55

Non-Leagueby Dan Childs & Andrew WilsherNational League Race for the title ............... 56Relegation ......................... 57Team verdicts ................... 58National League North & South and Premier divs .... 59

Scotland & N Irelandby Mark Walker & Henry HardwickePremiership ..................60-61Championship .................. 62League One .......................... 62League Two ........................ 63N Ireland Premiership ....... 63

Europeby Joe Champion & Mark LangdonFrance ............................... 64 Germany ........................... 65Italy ................................... 66Spain ................................. 67

Expert opinionsDidi Hamann ................... 4-5Michael Cox ...................... 33Mike Holden ..................... 34Kevin Pullein .................... 39

FeaturesWhere the money’s gone.. 32New faces of 2018 ............ 35Spreadwise ........................ 38Guide to the refs ............... 39 Nations League ................. 68 Expected goals .................. 69

THE BIG KICK-OFF2018-19 editionDesigned and edited by Matthew Ireland & Phil Agius

Production team Aaron Ashley, Joe Champion, Liam Flin, Alex Hilton, James Milton, Ian Wilkerson, Dan Williams, Graham WoodsFront page Stefan SearleMarkets Joe ChampionStats Chris Mann, Dave Clark, Glenn JeffreysPictures & graphics David Cramphorn, Liam Hill, Stefan Searle, Nigel Jones, Shane Tetley, Joel Vaughan

Web racingpost.com soccerbase.comTwitter @racingpostsport @soccerbase

RACING POST

All statistics and prices correct as of July 31, 2018

RACING POST SPORT FOOTBALL WRITERS’ DIVISIONAL PICKS

DAN CHILDS STEVE DAVIES AARON ASHLEY JOE CHAMPION KEVIN PULLEIN

Citizens hungry for more

MANCHESTER CITY have been on the drift in the title betting but are set to dominate again.

To be ranked alongside the truly great teams City need to win multiple titles. They have the quality to do so and Pep Guardiola should ensure that the team’s hunger does not diminish.

Liverpool may be their closest pursuers after significantly upgrading their team but are unlikely to bridge the 25-point gap which separated them from the champions last term.

The relegated teams take up t o o m u c h o f t h e S k y B e t Championship market and Nottingham Forest are the value after adding quality to the squad.

Aitor Karanka has achieved promotion to the Premier League before and can do likewise with Forest, who face competition from Derby and Middlesbrough.

Sunderland can justify market optimism in League One. A long-awaited takeover has gone through and the Black Cats have made enough good signings to set themselves apart from the competition. Newly-promoted Luton could chase them home.

Mansfield look the team to beat in League Two after making some bold moves, bringing in Craig Davies from Oldham and Tyler Walker on loan from Forest. Swindon could give them a run for their money.vvDan Childs’s Championship preview, pages 42-47

Divisional picksPremier League Man CityChampionship Nottingham ForestLeague One SunderlandLeague Two Mansfield

Divisional picksPremier League Man CityChampionship DerbyLeague One SouthendLeague Two Lincoln

Divisional picksPremier League LiverpoolChampionship DerbyLeague One SunderlandLeague Two MK Dons

Divisional picksPremier League Man CityChampionship DerbyLeague One SunderlandLeague Two Lincoln

Divisional picksPremier League Man CityChampionship MiddlesbroughLeague One SunderlandLeague Two Mansfield

Divisional picksPremier League Man CityChampionship MiddlesbroughLeague One BarnsleyLeague Two Lincoln

Impressive Imps can go up

LINCOLN bullied their way into the League Two playoffs where they came up short against Exeter, but older, wiser and no less combative, expect the Imps to go direct (in more ways than one) into League One this time.

There’s nothing complicated about the Lincoln approach and, held together by the amiable and admirable Danny Cowley, it works.

Perhaps they are something of a relic of former times, but results last season were i m p r e s s i v e a n d t h e r e ’ s absolutely no reason to think they should drop off.

Southend look a solid – and value – punt in a wide-open third tier where Sunderland are going

to take some stopping.And so to the top two divisions

where Maurizio Sarri will bring Chelsea back into the mix, only to be pipped by Manchester City.

The champions romped to victory last season and are correctly considered odds-on favourites to retain the trophy.

Chelsea old boy, Frank Lampard, can deliver a dream debut by finally getting Derby over the line in the Sky Bet Championship after making several eye-catching signings. vvSteve Davies’s League One preview, pages 48-51

Ruthless Reds to run riot

THE PREMIER LEAGUE looks a two-horse race and Liverpool could be value to exact their revenge on Manchester City.

Jurgen Klopp’s men have a 25-point gap to bridge on the classy Citizens but won three of their four meetings last season and should go close if holding their form against the league’s lesser lights.

A summer spending spree has significantly strengthened their most vulnerable areas with Brazilian shot-stopper Alisson joining midfield duo Naby Keita and Fabinho at Anfield.

Nottingham Forest are out to e m u l a t e W o l v e s i n t h e Championship, but it is Frank

Lampard’s Derby who look a touch overpriced.

The Rams made the playoffs last term and have bolstered their squad with the acquisitions of Jack Marriott, Florian Jozefzoon, Harry Wilson and Mason Mount.

Sunderland could take some stopping in League One. Jack Ross has spent well and their talented youngsters should make hay at this lower level.

MK Dons can bounce back as champions under Paul Tisdale.vvAaron Ashley’s League Two preview, pages 52-55

Lampard may enjoy success

MANCHESTER CITY won the Premier League with ease last season and it’s going to take a big leap forward from one of their rivals to bridge the gap.

Pep Guardiola isn’t one to rest on his laurels and will want his impressive champions to continue to evolve as they bid for both domestic and European glory.

Big-spending Liverpool are their biggest challengers but they will need help from others if City are going to fail to amass another significant points tally by the end of the campaign.

Rookie manager Frank Lampard looks to be doing some great business and can guide Derby out of the Championship

– highly-rated Chelsea loanee Mason Mount is a particularly eye-catching recruit for the ambitious Rams.

Sunderland are reeling after a double relegation but should never have got into such a mess in the first place and should take the League One title with better guidance.

In League Two, Lincoln are the pick. The Imps came up short in their first season back in the Football League but should continue to improve.vvJoe Champion previews France & Spain, pages 64 & 67

Sunderland look strong

M A N S F I E L D could reward backers in League Two. They seem to be well-run. And last season they were not far away – they finished just outside the playoffs. Such teams have in the past have proved profitable to follow.

Sunderland have new owners. The previous proprietor put in a lot of money but consistently got bad value. Whether that was b e c a u s e o f b a d l u c k , b a d recruiters, or both, no one will ever know.

Sunderland were relegated from the Premier League then from the Sky Bet Championship. But any Sunderland team ought to be the strongest in League One, and they are worthy of support.

Middlesbrough reached the Championship playoffs last season. In their three most recent seasons in the division they finished in the top five. For many years they have seemed to be well-run. They are likeable for the same sor t of reasons t hat Mansfield are.

There may be fewer points between the top teams in the Premier League this season than there were last season. But the team who finish first may once again be Manchester City.vvPullein On Football, page 39

Boro are solid under PulisMANCHESTER CITY are fancied to oblige for favourite backers but the Sky Bet Football League looks as difficult as ever and my tactic will be to back cross multiples with two teams in each division.

MIDDLESBROUGH look a solid enough selection in the Championship under Tony Pulis af ter missing out in last season’s playoffs.

Pulis should improve them after having a pre-season to work on his style and he wants two more players in at the Riverside to join smart summer recruits Aden Flint (from Bristol City) and Sunderland’s Paddy McNair.

Derby would be next best in the Championship with Frank Lampard using his contacts

STORY OF THE LAST TEN SEASONS2017-18 1 Manchester City 15-8, 2 Manchester Utd 7-2, 3 Tottenham 10-12016-17 1 Chelsea 13-2, 2 Tottenham 10-1, 3 Manchester City 13-52015-16 1 Leicester 5,000-1, 2 Arsenal 9-2, 3 Tottenham 150-12014-15 1 Chelsea 19-10, 2 Manchester City 5-2, 3 Arsenal 7-12013-14 1 Manchester City 23-10, 2 Liverpool 33-1, 3 Chelsea 3-12012-13 1 Manchester Utd 13-5, 2 Manchester City 13-10, 3 Chelsea 5-12011-12 1 Manchester City 9-2, 2 Manchester Utd 2-1, 3 Arsenal 10-12010-11 1 Manchester Utd 11-4, 2 Chelsea 13-8, 3 Manchester City 5-12009-10 1 Chelsea 9-4, 2 Manchester Utd 23-10, 3 Arsenal 10-12008-09 1 Manchester Utd 6-4, 2 Liverpool 15-2, 3 Chelsea 15-8

STANDINGS HOME FINAL TABLE AWAY Pl W D L F A W D L F A Pts 38 16 2 1 61 14 Man City (C) ...16 2 1 45 13 100 38 15 2 2 38 9 Man Utd .........10 4 5 30 19 81 38 13 4 2 40 16 Tottenham .....10 4 5 34 20 77 38 12 7 0 45 10 Liverpool ........9 5 5 39 28 75 38 11 4 4 30 16 Chelsea ..........10 3 6 32 22 70 38 15 2 2 54 20 Arsenal ...........4 4 11 20 31 63 38 7 5 7 16 17 Burnley ...........7 7 5 20 22 54 38 10 4 5 28 22 Everton ...........3 6 10 16 36 49 38 7 6 6 25 22 Leicester .........5 5 9 31 38 47 38 8 4 7 21 17 Newcastle ......4 4 11 18 30 44 38 7 5 7 29 27 Crystal Palace 4 6 9 16 28 44 38 7 5 7 26 30 Bournemouth .4 6 9 19 31 44 38 7 6 6 24 26 West Ham .......3 6 10 24 42 42 38 7 6 6 27 31 Watford ..........4 2 13 17 33 41 38 7 8 4 24 25 Brighton .........2 5 12 10 29 40 38 6 5 8 16 25 Huddersfield ..3 5 11 12 33 37 38 4 7 8 20 26 Southampton .3 8 8 17 30 36 38 6 3 10 17 24 Swansea (R) ....2 6 11 11 32 33 38 5 5 9 20 30 Stoke (R) ..........2 7 10 15 38 33 38 3 9 7 21 29 West Brom (R) 3 4 12 10 27 31

HOME 2ND HALF OF SEASON AWAY Pl W D L F A W D L F A Pts 19 7 1 1 25 7 Man City ......... 7 2 1 21 8 45 19 8 1 1 24 10 Tottenham ..... 5 3 1 16 8 43 19 8 2 0 31 7 Liverpool ........ 4 2 3 12 8 40 19 7 2 1 16 6 Man Utd ......... 5 1 3 11 8 39 19 5 3 2 16 9 Chelsea........... 4 1 4 14 15 31 19 7 1 1 29 10 Arsenal ........... 2 1 7 11 18 29 19 5 3 2 17 17 Bournemouth . 2 4 3 13 16 28 19 4 2 4 17 12 C Palace .......... 3 3 3 12 14 26 19 5 3 2 12 5 Newcastle ...... 2 2 5 8 13 26 19 4 4 2 14 12 West Ham ....... 2 3 4 15 21 25 19 4 3 2 11 9 Everton........... 2 2 6 9 19 23 19 2 3 4 9 11 Burnley ........... 3 4 3 11 13 22 19 3 4 2 12 8 Leicester ......... 2 1 7 15 24 20 19 4 1 4 11 9 Swansea ......... 1 4 5 6 21 20 19 4 3 2 14 13 Brighton ......... 0 4 6 5 18 19 19 5 3 2 16 11 Watford .......... 0 1 8 1 19 19 19 1 3 4 7 11 Southampton . 2 5 4 12 20 17 19 2 4 4 12 15 West Brom ..... 2 1 6 5 14 17 19 2 3 5 7 14 Huddersfield .. 1 3 5 4 13 15 19 1 3 5 7 11 Stoke .............. 1 5 4 6 17 14

Season Favourite Price Finish 2017-18 Man City 15-8 1st2016-17 Man City 13-5 3rd2015-16 Chelsea 15-8 10th2014-15 Chelsea 19-10 1st2013-14 Man City 23-10 1st2012-13 Man City 13-10 2nd2011-12 Man Utd 2-1 2nd2010-11 Chelsea 13-8 2nd2009-10 Chelsea 9-4 1st2008-09 Man Utd 6-4 1st2007-08 Man Utd 11-8 1st2006-07 Chelsea 4-9 2nd2005-06 Chelsea 4-5 1st2004-05 Arsenal 7-4 2nd2003-04 Man Utd 5-4 3rd2002-03 Man Utd 11-8 1st2001-02 Man Utd 4-5 3rd2000-01 Man Utd 4-5 1st1999-00 Man Utd 5-4 1st1998-99 Man Utd 2-1 1st

FATE OF THE FAVOURITES

PREMIER LEAGUE

WITHOUT MANCHESTER CITY

LAST 6 YEARS bet365 BetBright Betfair Betfred Betway Boyles Coral Hills Ladbrokes P Power Sky Bet 188Bet

2/1/2/4/3/1 Man City 4-6 4-6 8-13 4-6 8-11 4-6 8-11 4-6 8-11 8-13 4-6 7-10

7/2/6/8/4/4 Liverpool 4 9-2 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4

1/7/4/5/6/2 Man Utd 7 6 15-2 13-2 8 7 7 7 13-2 15-2 8 15-2

3/3/1/10/1/5 Chelsea 12 11 12 14 12 12 12 14 12 12 14 12

5/6/5/3/2/3 Tottenham 16 11 16 12 16 14 14 14 16 16 14 18

4/4/3/2/5/6 Arsenal 20 25 25 20 20 20 25 25 25 25 25 25

6/5/11/11/7/8 Everton 250 200 250 200 250 200 200 200 200 250 250 250

23/1/7/14/15/1 Wolves 250 100 250 250 250 250 100 150 100 250 250 250

6/1/14/1/12/9 Leicester 300 200 300 250 250 300 200 300 200 300 250 450

10/13/12/7/11/13 West Ham 300 500 500 400 250 300 200 300 200 500 250 300

5/11/10/15/14/11 Crystal Palace 750 500 500 750 750 500 500 750 500 500 750 750

16/10/15/18/1/10 Newcastle 750 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 750 750

14/8/7/6/8/17 Southampton 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 750 500 500 500 500

11/2/19/1/16/7 Burnley 750 750 500 500 500 500 750 750 750 500 1000 750

2/10/1/16/9/12 Bournemouth 1000 750 1000 750 750 1000 750 750 750 1000 1000 1000

4/6/20/3/2/15 Brighton 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000

12/19/17/20/6/3 Fulham 1000 750 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000

3/13/2/13/17/14 Watford 1000 1000 500 750 750 1000 1000 1000 1000 500 1000 1000

19/17/16/19/5/16 Huddersfield 1500 1000 1500 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000 1500 1500 1000

1/20/11/8/12/2 Cardiff 2000 1000 2000 1000 1000 2500 1000 1500 1000 2000 2000 1500

Each-way 1/3 1,2 (bet365 & Sky Bet 1/5 1,2,3; 188Bet win only) *Bold figures represent form in a different division All quoted

LAST 6 YEARS bet365 Betfair Betfred Boyles Coral Hills Ladbrokes P Power 188Bet

7/2/6/8/4/4 Liverpool 6-5 11-10 5-4 5-4 5-4 6-5 5-4 11-10 Evs

1/7/4/5/6/2 Man Utd 5-2 11-4 9-4 5-2 5-2 9-4 5-2 11-4 5-2

3/3/1/10/1/5 Chelsea 5 5 6 5 9-2 5 9-2 5 5

5/6/5/3/2/3 Tottenham 6 15-2 6 6 6 5 6 15-2 6

4/4/3/2/5/6 Arsenal 8 17-2 8 8 8 9 8 17-2 8

Win only Others on request

t o b r i n g i n a n u m b e r o f highly-rated youngsters, most notably Mason Mount from his former club Chelsea.

BARNSLEY are worth backing i n L e a g u e O n e d e s p i t e reservations regarding German coach Daniel Stendel, who has struggled to give interviews in English.

Stendel has Kieffer Moore and Tom Bradshaw up front and a number of classy midfield options for a team who were unlucky to go down from the Championship last season.

Luton would not have to improve much from their League Two form to get in the promotion mix either.

LINCOLN have got better every season under Danny Cowley and are ready to go one

better af ter reaching the playoffs last season. Burly striker John Akinde is ideal for Lincoln’s direct approach and Shay McCartan is a clever loan signing from Bradford.

It looks a hot division with Notts County and MK Dons also fancied by many, but Mansfield can follow Lincoln up.

They were not far away last season, have recruited well and clearly have plenty of money after Otis Khan turned down League One clubs to become a Stag.

Reds the biggest threat to sensational Citizens

City may not be as dominant as they were last term, but they will still take all the beating

T HE Premier League prides itself on being the most competitive elite title race in Europe, or at least it

did until Manchester City ripped up the record books to hit a century of points last term.

City were first and the rest nowhere as Manchester United nominally chased home their neighbours who may as well have been in a different postcode with a 19-point chasm separating Pep Guardiola’s greats from floundering field.

The result is that we have odds-on ante-post Premier League title favourites for only the fourth time this century and the first since Chelsea went off at 4-9 in 2006-07. That supposed Blues cruise turned into anything but as Chelsea lost out to Manchester United, who sealed the first of three consecutive championships.

Complacency, opposition teams sussing out ways to stifle the best and the sheer quality of

those who miss out on being champions are legitimate reasons for hoping there could be more of a battle this time, not least because the title has changed hands every year since United threepeated.

However, none of those champions were as dominant as City. They scored the most goals, conceded the fewest and lost only twice, both by one goal, and on eight occasions they were victorious by at least a four-goal margin.

Riyad Mahrez, the only summer arrival, adds further variety to their attack but marauding left-back Benjamin Mendy will feel like a new signing after missing much of last season, while most of the side is young enough to improve.

Leroy Sane, Gabriel Jesus and Raheem Sterling fall perfectly into that category and the increasingly influential Kevin De Bruyne should be in his pomp aged 27.

Maybe the same cannot be said for 30-somethings Fernandinho, David Silva and Vincent Kompany, but the depth is clear for all to see.

John Stones or Aymeric Laporte could replace Kompany, Ilkay Gundogan rotates with Fernandinho and Mahrez’s arrival allows Bernardo Silva to come inside to ease the load on his namesake David.

Perhaps the greatest concern for potential City backers is they may not be allowed such an easy lead and it is unlikely that Guardiola’s side will match their remarkable, record-breaking run of winning 18 straight league matches.

Last season was over almost before it started for most of City’s rivals with only United able to keep pace before defeats to Huddersfield and Chelsea rocked the Red Devils from mid-October.

L IVERPOOL failed to win six of their first nine games, Chelsea suffered losses to Crystal Palace and

Burnley in their opening eight fixtures, Tottenham wobbled at their temporary Wembley home and Arsenal were, well, Arsenal.

It could be a different ball game, or at least a more difficult one, if any of those sides are able to keep tabs on Guardiola’s galaxy of stars and Liverpool look best suited to the role of gallant hunters.

Liverpool have proved themselves in short bursts against City, ending the champions’ hopes of going the league season unbeaten with a thrilling 4-3 victory at Anfield in January and beating the Manchester men twice more in

an equally entertaining Champions League quarter-final.

The test for the Champions League runners-up is to sustain that level of performance for longer periods and Jurgen Klopp has launched an all-out assault on silverware this summer by doing arguably the best transfer business in Europe, at least in terms of upgrading his team.

Alisson, who ranks ahead of City’s Ederson for Brazil, arrived for a world-record transfer fee for a goalkeeper and Fabinho brings steel to the midfield, playing just in front of an improving defence.

Naby Keita may prove even more authoritative than Alisson and Fabinho. A midfield driving force for Leipzig, the Guinean is

a machine made for Klopp’s famed gegenpress.

All this comes after Virgil van Dijk made a monumental difference to the back four following his arrival in January and the front three of Mohamed Salah, Roberto Firmino and Sadio Mane remain in situ.

The sensational Salah scooped personal awards galore and won the Golden Boot with 32 goals. Incredibly, he also left plenty on the table having missed the most big chances (23) in the Premier League, which goes to show how rampant the Reds can be in the final third.

A dual forecast bet on City and Liverpool is the one to have, leaving four of the big six fighting out for two Champions League spots.

A LL things being equal United would be in the top four, but they are not as superior to London

trio Arsenal, Chelsea and Spurs as the odds suggest.

United were sixth-best on expected-goals figures last season and their record of conceding only 28 times gives a false impression as David de Gea was overworked to such an extent the Red Devils would ordinarily have been expected to ship around 43 goals from the chances they conceded.

Jose Mourinho, much to his frustration, has been unable to make significant improvements and they remain vulnerable at centre-back.

United’s starting goalkeeper and defence from the FA Cup final defeat to Chelsea in May were all Sir Alex Ferguson signings so it’s little wonder Mourinho is getting frustrated.

Fred’s arrival in midfield may allow Paul Pogba more freedom and if January buy Alexis Sanchez finds his best form United could improve, but they need to because a repeat of their 2017-18 performances probably won’t be enough.

The same cannot be said for Tottenham. Spurs deserved to finish third last season, are well-coached by Mauricio Pochettino and the lack of

signings does not have to be considered a major negative after they finished third, second and third in the last three years. Moving into their new stadium in September should also give the club a major fillip.

Spurs had nine players involved in the World Cup semi-finals which may hamper their start, although on the plus side France skipper Hugo Lloris lifted the trophy, striker Harry Kane won the Golden Boot and the likes of Kieran Trippier, Christian Eriksen and Jan Vertonghen enhanced their reputations in Russia.

Chelsea and Arsenal are more unknown quantities under different managers. Maurizio Sarri has arrived at Stamford Bridge to replace Antonio Conte and Arsene Wenger finally exited the Emirates with Unai Emery now calling the shots.

Not for the first time Chelsea saw carnage behind the scenes last term and Conte lost out in a power struggle, but the Blues still rallied to win the FA Cup and talk of a mass exodus, so far at least, has come to nought.

Sarri’s complicated style may take time to come to fruition but the signing of his old Napoli midfield general Jorginho will help the cause.

Even if wantaway duo Thibaut Courtois and Willian are sold, they still have Eden

Hazard and N’Golo Kante and started last season as 7-2 shots to retain the title.

Sarri is also trying to bring in expensive players to improve the team and Chelsea’s demise may be overplayed.

Arsenal could be anything.Was Wenger holding them

back and if so to what extent? They have missed out on the top four in each of the last two years but Emery should be hugely confident of at least getting much closer to a return to the Champions League.

The signings have been sensible rather than sensational, although the key is whether Emery is able to engineer more from those who were already at the club such as Granit Xhaka, Mesut Ozil, Alexandre Lacazette, Henrikh Mkhitaryan and Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang.

If Emery can do just that Arsenal suddenly become top-four contenders and may push United closer to their nightmare scenario, watching City and Liverpool do battle for the title as they slip outside of the Champions League qualification spots.

RecommendationsMan City-Liverpool dual forecast 1pt 2-1 Sky BetMan Utd to not finish in the top four 2pts 11-4 bet365

Chief football writer Mark Langdon previews the season ahead

Forest boss Aitor Karanka

Jurgen Klopp

Wednesday, August 1, 2018 racingpost.com4 THE BIG KICK-OFF

DIDIHAMANN

Racing Post Wednesday, August 1, 2018 5

The former Liverpool and Manchester City midfielder offers his best ante-post bets

Manchester City to win Premier League8-11 Betway, Coral, Ladbrokes

Manchester United without Manchester City11-4 Betfair, Paddy Power

West Ham top-half �nish6-5 general

Wolves to be relegated9-1 Sky Bet

R Mahrez to win Golden Boot66-1 general

S Mane to win Golden Boot80-1 bet365

Derby to win Championship14-1 Hills, Sky Bet, 188Bet

Coventry to win League One22-1 Betfair, Paddy Power

Oldham to win League Two22-1 Sky Bet

M ANCHESTER City won the Premier League by 19 points last season and

absolutely nothing suggests they are going to be any weaker this time around.

The question is who will finish second to them in 2018-19?

Plenty of pundits are telling us that Liverpool’s summer spending has been outstanding and that Jurgen Klopp’s men are now ready to take that next step, or that Maurizio Sarri is the man to revive Chelsea after a muddled and disrupted season at Stamford Bridge.

But it was a Manchester one-two last season and the nerveless Jose Mourinho will somehow manage to keep his side at the front of the chasing pack.

There has been hardly any transfer action at Old Trafford this summer. Fred adds something to midfield where

CityarestilltheteamtobeatwithdoubtsoverReds

Manchester City winger Leroy Sane should be raring to go

Mourinho is banking on Paul Pogba finally showing his true colours after a decent World Cup. The United chief has yet to get the best out of his French star.

I just don’t see United being any worse than last season and that should make them City’s nearest challengers again.

My concern with Liverpool is that whenever they get into contention they find ways of throwing away points.

If they are still on City’s tail with ten games to go, that means they’ve got ten cup finals in front of them – and cup finals aren’t Liverpool’s strong suit.

Mo Salah is no longer the secret he was and I don’t for the life of me see the purpose of the Xherdan Shaqiri signing.

Allison has got the critics raving but keeping goal in the Premier League is different to keeping goal in any other league in the world.

I was enthusing about Naby Keita’s signing a year ago but he

didn’t have a memorable 2017-18 season at Leipzig and, all in all, nothing tells me they can bridge that gap to City.

Indeed, I’m not convinced they are going to eclipse United, who look the best value in the betting without Pep Guardiola’s men.

Chelsea should complete the top four, especially now that they have resolved the manager issue and made an excellent appointment in Sarri.

Everything I read about him, and everything I saw him achieve with Napoli, suggests that Chelsea have got an absolute gem.

I always said selling Nemanja Matic was a mistake so the arrival of Jorginho to share the workload with N’Golo Kante restores that rock-solid look to the Chelsea set-up.

The Blues should finish above Tottenham and Arsenal, who will complete the top six.

I’m a huge fan of Mauricio Pochettino and the fact that

he’s done almost nothing in the transfer market says he’s rightly happy with what he’s got.

The balance is there, which is something you can’t say about Arsenal. The Gunners are facing a transitional period under Unai Emery and the new boss needs to be given time to organise a squad who looked so unreliable last term.

But they’ll all be chasing City once again. The Citizens surely won’t pull off another 100 points and 100 goals double because that was almost beyond belief.

To drop points in only six of 38 matches is an amazing statistic – Liverpool dropped points in 17, another measure of the gulf between them.

City’s signing of Riyad Mahrez is a real statement because he is top class but was going stale at Leicester.

I bet Leroy Sane is absolutely gagging to get going after his World Cup omission by Germany and Benjamin Mendy

is fully fit this time around.And beyond the big six?

How about West Ham, who are definitely worth backing to finish in the top half.

The Hammers’ appointment of Manuel Pellegrini, who guided Manchester City to their 2013-14 title triumph and two League Cups – he was an unqualified success at the Etihad – looks inspired.

WOLVES have returned to the top flight with a fanfare and great expectations but I’m not convinced that the reality is going to match the hype.

Anyone who talked up Everton last year should be aware of the modern-day Premier League, a division in which the top six is pretty much set in stone and the rest are getting stronger and stronger.

That’s the division Wolves are entering – one where a manager such as Sean Dyche can sit on his hands over the summer because he’s completely at ease with the players he’s got at his disposal.

This is Burnley we’re talking about, for heaven’s sake.

Wolves are all the rage after the joy of promotion but I’d be wary of expecting too much.

Once upon a time, sides such as Bournemouth or Crystal Palace would have been panicked into trawling the globe for reinforcements after bottom-half finishes.

But bottom-half finishes in the Premier League are nothing

THE Premier League top goalscorer should be someone who plays for Manchester City or Liverpool.

And at big each-way prices, I’m thinking Riyad Mahrez and Sadio Mane.

Mahrez scored 12 times in a poor Leicester side under Claude Puel’s management but in Leicester’s title-winning season he banged in 17.

Now he’s part of a Manchester City team who scored 106 goals last term and

DERBY have made a sage appointment in Frank Lampard and the former Chelsea and England captain can guide the Rams to that long-overdue title success in the Sky Bet Championship.

This looks a really top-heavy section this season with three decent teams going down from the Premier League, although none of Stoke, Swansea or West Brom should fill anyone with dread.

OverhypedWolvesareworthopposing

Mahrezmovelookspromising

LEAGUE

And it’s no surprise that Pellegrini has managed to lure players of the calibre of Jack Wilshere, Andriy Yarmolenko and Felipe Anderson to the London Stadium, where the club surely feels more bedded in now.

Backed by the board at last, this should be the season when West Ham climb towards a European spot.

to be ashamed of when the top half only consists of four places once you take the big six out of the equation.

It’s all about knowing how to survive and the likes of Dyche, Roy Hodgson and Eddie Howe are acutely aware of what it takes. So too are Rafa Benitez, Chris Hughton and even Neil Warnock, who gets another chance to showcase his survival instincts with Cardiff.

But one manager on a voyage into the unknown is Nuno Espirito Santo and he may find that staying in the Premier League is a seriously tough ask.

As punters, we’re all looking for value going into the new season and 6-5 that Wolves finish in the top half isn’t it. The 9-1 that they go down, on the other hand, definitely is.

There was a lot of quality at Molineux last year as Wolves won the Championship with something in hand.

Ruben Neves was the pick of a Portuguese contingent in a Wolves side who played some nice football under the expert leadership of Nuno.

Over the summer he has

Throw into the mix the likes of Aston Villa, Leeds and Middlesbrough and you’ve got a competitive heat, but it’s one that Derby can win.

Lampard will make an excellent manager – he’s got all the tools. He has been there as a player and should therefore command total respect from any footballers working under him.

He’s played for some of the finest managers, he’s articulate, has got contacts and is likeable – basically everything you’d want from a younger manager.

Comparisons with Gareth Southgate aren’t too far wide of the mark and Lampard can kick off a promising coaching career by landing the odds at Derby.

I’m looking for a progressive team in League One and that could be Coventry, who are on the up after winning the League Two playoffs.

It’s Oldham for me in the basement. Unlucky to go down and stronger after some good summer spending, the Latics shouldn’t be stuck in League Two for long.

gone back to Portugal to find more recruits and that could be a dangerous game. Rui Patricio and Joao Moutinho are the latest additions to the group – and they are classy signings.

But the Wolves side has been quickly transformed into a League of Nations 11, dominated by Portuguese players, and it’s a policy that has its pitfalls.

Wolves are undergoing a journey into uncharted waters at the same time as they are readjusting to life in the Premier League. It could well work – but I prefer the price that says it doesn’t.

while he won’t start every game he’s clearly going to be a big player for Pep Guardiola and he’ll get chances.

Mahrez is a fitness doubt for the start of the season but I still expect him to have a big impact for the champions over the course of the campaign.

Mane scored ten times in the league for Liverpool despite missing nine matches and he’s got more goals in him.

The claims of Mo Salah and Harry Kane are obvious, although Salah will surely never again have a season like the one he just had. Liverpool’s Sadio Mane

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PREMIER LEAGUE MARK LANGDON’S TEAM-BY-TEAM GUIDE

Wednesday, August 1, 2018 racingpost.com10 THE BIG KICK-OFF

BEST 11

6 ARSENAL

Player App G Y R P-E Aubameyang 12(1) 10 0 0 H Bellerin 34 (1) 2 5 0 P Cech 34 0 1 0 C Chambers 10(2) 0 1 0 F Coquelin 1(6) 0 0 0 E Nketiah 0 (3) 0 0 0 M Elneny 11(2) 0 3 1 O Giroud 1(15) 4 0 0 R Holding 9(3) 0 3 0 A Iwobi 22(4) 3 1 0 S Kolasinac 25(2) 2 3 0 L Koscielny 25 2 4 0 A Lacazette 26(6) 14 1 0 A Maitland-Niles 8(7) 0 1 0 K Mavropanos 3 0 0 1 P Mertesacker 4(2) 1 0 0 H Mkhitaryan 9(2) 2 0 0 N Monreal 26(2) 5 3 0 S Mustafi 25(2) 3 6 0 R Nelson 2(1) 0 0 0 D Ospina 4(1) 0 0 0 A Oxlade-C’lain 3 0 0 0 M Ozil 24(2) 4 4 0 A Ramsey 21(3) 7 0 0 A Sanchez 17(2) 7 4 0 T Walcott 0(6) 0 0 0 D Welbeck 12(16) 5 1 0 J Willock 1(1) 0 0 0 J Wilshere 12(8) 1 6 0 G Xhaka 37(1) 1 10 0

Last seasonPremier League 6th FA Cup Third round League Cup Runners-up Europa League Semi-finalsManager Unai Emery from May 2018Key stat Arsenal won only four Premier League away matches last season

NOT since the start of the 1996-97 campaign have Arsenal started a season without Arsene Wenger as manager, and a new world is beginning at the Emirates under Unai Emery.

There was a time when replacing Wenger would have been considered a daunting prospect, but he hung around too long and the scope for improvement is obvious following the Frenchman’s worst season at the club, with just 63 points secured in a sixth-place finish.

Emery, who pipped fellow Spaniard Mikel Arteta to the vacancy, had relative success in his homeland with Almeria and Valencia before winning a hat-trick of Europa League titles at Sevilla which earned him a move to PSG.

Last season he won the treble with PSG but those triumphs were overshadowed by missing out on the Ligue 1 title to Monaco in 2016-17 and being in charge of a side who managed to lose a 4-0 first-leg advantage against Barcelona in the Champions League.

“I like playing with the ball. If you don’t have possession, I want a squad who are very, very intensive with pressing,” said Emery on his first day at the helm, which will be music to the ears of those who felt

In Lucas Torreira Sampdoria £26.4m Bernd Leno B Leverkusen £19.3m S Papastathopoulos B Dortmund £17.7m Matteo Guendouzi Lorient £7m Stefan Lichtsteiner Juventus Free

Out Jeff-Reine Adelaide Angers Undisc.Jack Wilshere West Ham FreeSanti Cazorla Villarreal FreeKelechi Nwakali Porto LoanPer Mertesacker Retired

Wenger neglected tactics to the detriment of the squad.

Emery is much more of a coach than an overall Wenger-like controller, handing transfer responsibilities to head of recruitment Sven Mislintat, who was tasked with Borussia Dortmund’s signings before heading to London in November.

However, there’s no magic wand and no blank cheque book to immediately push Arsenal back into the fight for major honours so even if they improve to a points tally in the low 70s it may not be enough for them to return to the Champions League.

There is at least sense to the signings. Stephan Lichtsteiner brings a wealth of experience and adds competition at right-back, Sokratis is a powerful centre-back from Dortmund, joining former teammates Henrikh Mkhitaryan and Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang who arrived in January, and midfield anchor Lucas Torreira is the defensive-minded player supporters have been demanding for years.

A new goalkeeper was needed to challenge Petr Cech, although the jury is out on Bernd Leno, and the new regime probably need several transfer windows to shape the squad to their liking.

No quick fix as Gunners begin new era

bet365 Betfred Betway Boyles Coral Hills Ladbrokes Sky Bet 188Bet

Aubameyang 4-7 4-11 8-13 8-13 11-8 11-10 11-8 2-5 1-2

Lacazette 5-4 2 11-8 7-4 15-8 2 15-8 2 Evs

Welbeck 14 20 14 14 10 12 10 25 14

Ramsey 20 20 16 16 10 10 10 25 20

Mkhitaryan 25 20 14 12 10 14 10 25 25

Ozil 33 50 50 25 12 16 12 40 30

Perez - 100 66 50 14 - 14 50 -Iwobi 100 100 66 66 20 40 20 80 80

TOP SCORER

Lacazette

CF

Ozil

AM

Monreal

LB

Mustafi

CB

Sokratis

CB

Leno

GK

Bellerin

Torreira

MkhitaryanAubameyang

Ramsey

AM

LOWDOWN

KEY TRANSFERS

LAST SEASON’S SQUAD

RB

DM

RFLF

Arsenal are reliant on Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang for goals

BEST 11

5 MAN UTD

Player App G Y R E Bailly 11 (2) 1 2 0 D Blind 4 (3) 0 0 0 M Carrick 1 (1) 0 0 0 M Darmian 5 (3) 0 0 0 M Fellaini 5 (11) 4 1 0 A Herrera 13 (13) 0 5 0 Z Ibrahimovic 1 (4) 0 0 0 P Jones 23 0 2 0 V Lindelof 13 (4) 0 1 0 J Lingard 20 (13) 8 2 0 R Lukaku 33 (1) 16 4 0 A Martial 18 (12) 9 1 0 J Mata 23 (5) 3 1 0 N Matic 35 (1) 1 6 0 S McTominay 7 (6) 0 2 0 H Mkhitaryan 11 (4) 1 2 0 P Pogba 25 (2) 6 5 1 M Rashford 17 (18) 7 3 0 M Rojo 8 (1) 0 6 0 S Romero 1 0 0 0 A Sanchez 12 2 1 0 L Shaw 8 (3) 0 2 0 C Smalling 28 (1) 4 4 0 A Tuanzebe 0 (1) 0 0 0 L Valencia 31 3 7 0 A Young 28 (2) 2 7 0 D de Gea 37 0 0 0

Last seasonPremier League Runners-up FA Cup Runners-up League Cup Fifth round Champions League Last 16Manager Jose Mourinho from May 2016Record P120 W74 D25 L21Key stat United conceded the fewest goals at home in last season’s Premier League with nine

AFTER failing to deliver his customary domestic title in season two, the narrative goes that year three under Jose Mourinho will be difficult for Manchester United.

Mourinho failed to win the league championship in his second season for the first time, having done so during both of his spells with Chelsea. He also did the domestic title-European Cup double with Inter and Porto and toppled Pep Guardiola’s Barcelona at Real Madrid.

There was improvement but the ghosts of Mourinho’s past suggest trouble is ahead.

He fell out with most of Real Madrid’s influential players and the supporters during his trophyless (excluding Spanish Super Cup) stint at the Bernabeu and was sacked in season three the second time around at Chelsea.

Mourinho won the League Cup and FA Cup in his third term first time up at Stamford Bridge but the league title eluded them even though they started the 2006-07 season as 4-9 favourites. It was not long into the following season that Jose obliged for his sack-race backers.

His miserable pre-season demeanour certainly suggests he wants more in the transfer market than Brazilian

In Fred Shakhtar £52m Diogo Dalot Porto £19m Lee Grant Stoke £1.5m

Out Daley Blind Ajax £14.1mSam Johnstone West Brom £6.5m Joe Riley Bradford FreeIndy Boonen Oostende FreeIlias M-Sebtaoui Anderlecht Free Dean Henderson Sheff Utd Loan Matty Willock St Mirren LoanMichael Carrick Retired

midfielder Fred and Portuguese right-back Diogo Dalot.

Fred’s arrival from Shakhtar in theory gives Paul Pogba the freedom he has craved since he returned to Manchester United and it could work well with the pair alongside Nemanja Matic, flanked by Jesse Lingard and Alexis Sanchez, who will supply Romelu Lukaku.

Sanchez must do better following his January arrival from Arsenal, although he would not be the first offensive player to struggle in a Mourinho team where defending comes first.

To that extent Mourinho must be relatively happy with conceding only 28 league goals, one more than Manchester neighbours City, who romped 19 points clear of their rivals.

However, United were nowhere as defensively dominant as the stats suggest.

Goalkeeper David de Gea deservedly won Manchester United’s Player of the Year award for the fourth time in five seasons after the Red Devils conceded more shots than any of their big-six rivals and only six sides conceded more attempts inside the penalty box.

Good fortune played a part last season and if they don’t improve United face a fight to qualify for the Champions League.

Mourinho’s past hints at difficult term

bet365 Betfred Betway Boyles Coral Hills Ladbrokes Sky Bet 188Bet

Lukaku 1-2 1-3 1-3 4-9 4-9 1-2 4-9 4-11 2-5

Sanchez 9-4 4 3 5-2 7-2 3 7-2 11-4 9-4

Rashford 7 8 7 8 8 10 8 11 7

Martial 12 20 16 10 14 10 14 14 12

Pogba 25 16 20 25 16 20 16 33 25

Lingard 25 33 25 20 10 20 10 20 25

Mata 33 25 33 50 33 40 33 40 -Fred 50 80 50 50 50 66 50 50 50

TOP SCORER

LOWDOWN

KEY TRANSFERS

LAST SEASON’S SQUAD

RWB

Lukaku

CF

Sanchez Lingard

LM RM

Young

LB

Fred

Jones

CM

CB

Matic

Smalling

CM

CB

De Gea

GK

Valencia

Pogba

ACM

RB

Paul Pogba will be hoping to get the freedom he craves

Midfielder Lucas Torreira

New keeper Lee Grant

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