from arms racing to “dam racing” in asia

8/2/2019 From Arms Racing to Dam Racing in Asia

1/40

p a p e r s e r i e s

From Arms rAcing to DAm rAcing in AsiA

How to contAin tHe geopoliticAl risks

oF tHe DAm-BuilDing competition

Brahma Chellaney

Bosch Public Policy Fellow


2/40

2012 Transatlantic Academy. All rights reserved.

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On the cover: Three Gorges Dam. Lu Heng


3/40

From Arms Racing to Dam Racing in AsiaHow to Contain the Geopolitical Risks of the Dam-Building Competition

Transatlantic Academy Paper Series

May 2012

Brahma Chellaney1

I

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B C C P R N D H v b P

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Uv H Water: Asias New Battleground(G Uv P, ) v v

b, Asian Juggernaut: The Rise of China, India, and Japan (HC, ) H v

j International Security, Orbis, Survival H - b

International Herald Tribune, Wall Street Journal, Japan Times, b Financial

Times New York Times


4/40

Transatlantic Academyii


5/40

From Arms Racing to Dam Racing in Asia 1

Introduction

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In Asia, the world

fastest economic

growth has been

accompanied

by the worlds

fastest increase

in military

spending and th

worlds fiercest

competition for

natural resource

especially water

and energy.


6/40

Transatlantic Academy2

Source: Based on United Nations data, 2012.

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Figure 1: Per-capita Freshwater Availability

in Different Regions


7/40


The New Dam Racing

1

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Asia is the world

most dam-dotted

continent, but

China alone has

slightly more

than half of the

approximately

50,000 large

dams on the

planet.


8/40


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Figure 2: Most of Asias Major Rivers Originate on the Tibetan Plateau

Note: The map also shows the three routes of Chinas Great South-North Water Diversion Project the Eastern Route, the Central Route, and the

Western Route centered on Tibetan waters.


9/40


China has

graduated

from building

large dams to

constructing

mega-dams.

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Versus Storage Dams

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10/40


Storage dams

usually carry

significant

environmental

costs, yet they are

more reliable and

economical for

power generation

than run-of-

river dams.

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The Growing Environmental Impacts

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Figure 3: New Dams Planned in China, Including Mega-Dams on Transnational Rivers

Note: National borders depicted in this map are at variance with actual control.

Source: HydroChina Corp., 2010, http://www.hydrochina.com.cn/zgsd/images/ziyuan_b.gif.


11/40


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3, N 3 (9), 56

Large dams

cause changes

in river hydrology

sediment

load, riparian

vegetation,

migratory patter

of freshwater

species, and

water quality.


12/40


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Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change ,

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The over-damming

of rivers is

causing a retreat

of Asias 11

heavily populated

mega-deltas

that are fed and

formed by rivers

originating on the

Tibetan Plateau.


13/40


The fastest-

growing

economies in

Asia are all in or

close to being

in conditions

of water stress,

raising concerns

about their futur

trajectories.

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14/40


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Precipitation Internal renewable freshwater

resources

Depth per

year (mm)

Volume

per year

(km2)

Volume

per year

(km2)

% of world

freshwater

resources

per captia

(m2)

East Asia 634 7,45 3,4 79 ,4

South Asia ,6 4,755 ,766 4 ,8

Mainland

Southeast Asia

,87 3,69 ,783 4 7,99

MaritimeSoutheast Asia

,74 8,7 4,77 9 3,7

Central Asia 73 ,7 63 6 3,

Figure 4: Freshwater Availability: Precipitation and Internal Renewable Water

Resources (IRWR)

Source: Data drawn from Aquastat, 2012.

Figure 5: Asia Doubled its Irrigated Acreage

in 40 Years

Source: Based on FAO data.


15/40


Asias water crisi

is largely tied to

the high water

withdrawals

for agriculture

because of

climate and

rainfall patterns.

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Figure 6: Declines in Water Availability for Development in Selected

Asian Countries since 1980

Source: United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific, 2009.


16/40


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Figure 7: Worlds Top Rice Exporters and Importers

Note: Figures for 2010. European Union is not treated as a single entity and thus excluded.

Source: Data drawn from Food and Agriculture Organization and U.S. Department of Agriculture.

Top 10 Exporters In 1,000 tons Top 10 Importers In 1,000 tons

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Asia produces

and consumes

much of the

worlds rice,

the thirstiest

grain crop.


17/40


(37 ), V (98 ),

M (8 )

Why Water Quality Matters

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Figure 8: Water Withdrawals in Asia

Source: Data drawn from Aquastat, 2012.

Subregions

Total withdrawl by sectorTotal

freshwater

withdrawl

km2/year

Freshwater

withdrawal

as % of

IRWR

Municipal Industrial Agricultural

km2/

year%

km2/

year%

km2/

year%

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South Asia 699 7 95 94 9 ,36 568

Mainland

Southeast Asia89 5 4 398 83 69 95

Maritime

Southeast Asia 4 8 6 469 86 7 36Central Asia 5 3 8 5 5 9 6 6

Water shortages

can be better

managed when a

nation maintains

water quality or

makes progress

improve quality.


18/40


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Absence of Conflict-Prevention Mechanisms

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Only 4 of the

57 international

river basins in

Asia have a

water-sharing or

cooperative treaty.


19/40


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36

The Great Himalayan Dam-Building

Competition3

The worlds

greatest

freshwater

resources are

concentrated in

the Himalayasand the Tibetan

highlands, where

the dam-building

competition is

concentrated.


20/40


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Figure 9: Rivers Originating in the Great Himalayan Range and

Adjoining Mountains

China has a

natural advantage

over other

countries because

almost all the

major Asian rivers

originate on the

Tibetan Plateau.


21/40


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The Vulnerability of Asias Water Tower

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Theoretical and Applied Climatology (Sb 9)

The concentratio

of dams in Asias

water tower

raises concerns

about their impa

on an ecological

sensitive region.


22/40


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(Db, 4), 65

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(G, Sz: WWF I, 7)

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The majority

of the worlds

endangered rivers

originate in the

Himalayan and

Tibetan highlands.


23/40


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24/40


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With Asia becoming

, v

At

times, even foreign direct investment in forest

real estate (such as the flow of Chinese money to

buy mountains and forests in Japan) has triggered

national suspicions that the motive may be to

control streams and other sources of water.

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Political Discord and Grassroots

Protests over Dam Projects4

The building of big

dams has run into

public opposition

in deeply

rooted Asian

democracies.


25/40


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Dam building in

the Mekong Bas

has stoked publi

controversies

and protests.


26/40


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9 Iv P C C (IPCC), Climate

Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability, W

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China currently

is implementing

the Great South-

to-North Water

Diversion Project

the biggest

hydraulic project

ever designed

in the world.


27/40


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The proposed

Great Western

Route is to tap

the waters of the

Brahmaputra,

the Salween, and

the Mekong.


28/40


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Figure 10: Dam Building on the Salween River in the Three

Parallel Rivers World Heritage Area

In post-Soviet

Central Asia, rising

nationalism and

competition over

water resources

has impeded

the development

of a regional

alternative to the

old water-resource

management

system of the

Soviet era.


29/40


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Uzbekistan has

held out military

threats against

Tajikistans plans

to resume work o

unfinished Sovie

era dam projects


30/40


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34 F A Oz, Country Fact-Sheet:

China, Aq b,

Water has

emerged as a

key security issue

in China-India

relations and a

potential source of

enduring discord.


31/40


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Our Water Future (N Y: 3 W R G,

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36 U S S,Avoiding Water Wars: Water Scarcity and

Central Asias Growing Importance for Stability in Afghanistan

and Pakistan, A Mj S R, P U

C F R (W, DC: US

Gv P O, Fb , ), 7

37 3 W R G, Charting Our Water Future,

56

India has water

treaties with all i

riparian neighbo

other than China

which rejects

the concept of

water sharing.


32/40


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Modest-Sized Dams also Generate Political

Tensions

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Even run-of-

river dams have

become a source

of inter-riparian

tensions, although

they generally do

not alter cross-

border flows.


33/40


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Pakistan has

taken its dispute

over a modest-

sized Indian

dam project to

international

arbitrators.


34/40


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Containing the Geopolitical Risks

5

Transparency

and information

sharing are critical

to preventing

water conflict

and addressing

informational

deficits and

mistrust.


35/40


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By encouraging

a dam-building

competition, the

doctrine of prior

appropriation

has proved

problematic.


36/40


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Figure 11: Dams on the Mekong, Including

Those Planned

Source: Mekong River Commission.

China can play a

leadership role if

it were to accept

water-sharing

arrangements

and cooperative

mechanisms.


37/40


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Because there is

no international

water treaty

presently in effec

it is crucial to

develop water

institutions at

the bilateral or

basin-wide level.


38/40


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39/40


40/40

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