presented to

ISMORS

September 2009

Dr. David S. AlbertsDirector, ResearchOASD/NII – DoD CIO

Redefining the “M” in MOR -- 21st Century OR Challenges for Militaries

Redefining the "M" in MOR -- ISMORS September 20092

Military Operations Research

Q. What makes MOR different from OR?

A: It is all about the problem formulation.

Specifically, ~ the Objective Function / MoE ~ the assumptions ~ the “approved” scenarios ~ the “validated” models

Redefining the "M" in MOR -- ISMORS September 20093

The Problem

There is a fundamental disconnect between

Military Operations Research

Problem Formulations of

&21st Century

Military Mission Challenges

Redefining the "M" in MOR -- ISMORS September 20094

The value chain is broken!

InformationSharing

InformationQuality

SharedAwareness

Self-Synchronization

MissionEffectiveness

RobustlyNetworked

Force

Collaboration

The Result

Redefining the "M" in MOR -- ISMORS September 20095

21st Century Military Missions are Complex Endeavors

Complex Endeavor

Complexity of ‘Self’

Complexity in the Task and Environment

=

+

21st Century Military Missions

Redefining the "M" in MOR -- ISMORS September 20096

• The success of 21st Century “Military” Missions requires a multi-dimensional effects space

• - political, social, economic, military

• The complexity of the mission is a result of the interactions between and among the effects, particularly across dimensions, and the uncertainties associated with a cascading effects chain.

Humanitarian Assistance Counter Terrorism

Stability Operatio

ns

Disaster Relief

Peace Keeping

Task and Environment

Redefining the "M" in MOR -- ISMORS September 20097

• The success of 21st Century “Military” Missions requires a multi-dimensional effects space

• - political, social, economic, military

• The complexity of the mission is a result of the interactions between and among the effects, particularly across dimensions, and the uncertainties associated with a cascading effects chain.

Humanitarian Assistance Counter Terrorism

Stability Operatio

ns

Disaster Relief

Peace Keeping

Task and Environment

Military Missions are no longer Military Missions !

Redefining the "M" in MOR -- ISMORS September 20098

• Self = A large number of heterogeneous, independent entities that differ significantly with respect to:

• Culture, values and norms;• Laws, policies, rules, and regulations;• Practices and processes; • Levels of trust; • Language;• Information and communications capabilities; • Approach to organization and management.

• The complexity of ‘Self’ comes from the nature of the interactions between and among the participating entities and the dynamics of the situation that affect entity willingness, constraints, perceptions, and capabilities.

Complexity of Self

Redefining the "M" in MOR -- ISMORS September 20099

Implications for Command and Control

• There will not be a unified chain of command.• Entities will each have their own intent.• The situation will be, in part, unfamiliar to all

entities.• There will be multiple planning processes.• Critical information and expertise necessary to

understand the situation will be non-organic. • Actions, to be effective, will require developing

synergies between and among entity actions.

There is a difference between Entity C2 and Collective C2

The nature of C2 is an assumption

Redefining the "M" in MOR -- ISMORS September 200910

It’s all about Networks

EffectsNetwork

NetworkedSelf

• Complex Endeavors are the rule not the exception• Complex Effects Space

– More than just effects in a single domain – Interactions in effects space significant– Lack of understanding of cross-domain cause-effects– Inability to predict

• Operating in a Network-Centric Environment– Many v. Few– Unfamiliar v. Familiar

• Complex “Self” – “Self” is composed of a large number of heterogeneous entities – Different objectives, values, constraints– No single entity in charge– Entities have significantly different perceptions

Redefining the "M" in MOR -- ISMORS September 200911

Focus and Convergence

Focus and Convergence accomplishes the functions

associated with command and control

without

• the existence of a single chain of command

• the assumption of control

Replaces the C2 assumption

Redefining the "M" in MOR -- ISMORS September 200912

F&C Approach Space

Allocation of Decision Rights to the Collective

Pat

tern

s of

Int

erac

tion

Am

ong

Ent

ities

Distrib

ution

of In

form

ation

Amon

g

Partic

ipant

s

Redefining the "M" in MOR -- ISMORS September 200913

Approach Space

Allocation of Decision Rights to the Collective

Pat

tern

s of

Int

erac

tion

Am

ong

Ent

ities

Distrib

ution

of In

form

ation

Amon

g

Partic

ipant

s

TraditionalMilitary / IndustrialOrganizations

Redefining the "M" in MOR -- ISMORS September 200914

Approach Space

Allocation of Decision Rights to the Collective

Pat

tern

s of

Int

erac

tion

Am

ong

Ent

ities

Distrib

ution

of In

form

ation

Amon

g

Partic

ipant

s

TraditionalMilitary / IndustrialOrganizations

The constraint to operate in a small

part of this spaceIs not longer valid

Redefining the "M" in MOR -- ISMORS September 200915

Approach Space

Allocation of Decision Rights to the Collective

Pat

tern

s of

Int

erac

tion

Am

ong

Ent

ities

Distrib

ution

of In

form

ation

Amon

g

Partic

ipant

s

TraditionalMilitary / IndustrialOrganizations

Edge Organizations

Redefining the "M" in MOR -- ISMORS September 200916

Archetypical Approaches

Archetypical

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The Challenge

Approach to Focus and Convergence

Endeavor Space

What is your requisite level of Maturity? How much Agility do you need to have?

Redefining the "M" in MOR -- ISMORS September 200918

F&C Agility

• Agility is an umbrella concept that includes:– Responsiveness;– Robustness;– Resilience;– Flexibility;– Innovativeness;– Adaptability.

• F&C Agility is the ability to maintain effective F&C as a function of changing circumstances and stresses.

replaces the objective to maximize mission effectiveness

Redefining the "M" in MOR -- ISMORS September 200919

F&C Agility

• F&C Agility involves more than being able to recognize the nature of the situation and adjust the C2 Approach

• F&C Agility also involves being able to maintain an acceptable level of effectiveness in the face of: – Physical, Electronic, and Cyber attacks that destroy or degrade

nodes and/or links;– Information attacks that results in a loss of information or the

insertion of misinformation;– A loss of trust in information, services, or entities;– An austere environment that limits connectivity and services;– ….

Redefining the "M" in MOR -- ISMORS September 200920

Getting Started on the Way Ahead

• Acquire a New Mindset– Recognize the need to move beyond traditional approaches– Recognize that there is no single approach that fits all situations– Recognize the difference between entity and collective action– Adopt the language of Focus and Convergence

• Use Case Studies and related Analyses to – Select targets for F&C Maturity and Agility – Determine, for a given endeavor, your Requisite Maturity and Requisite Agility– Work with others, in a given endeavor, to determine the Requisite Maturity and

Agility of the Collective

• Use the F&C Maturity Model to:– Characterize and understand your approaches and capabilities– Identify what co-evolution is required to move to the next level of maturity– Create time-phased milestones for your implementation plan

Redefining the "M" in MOR -- ISMORS September 200921

Military Operations Research