Presented to

2009 Tennessee Federal Tax Conference

William F. Fox, DirectorCenter for Business and Economic Research

The University of Tennessee, KnoxvilleNovember 19, 2009

The U.S. Economy as the Recession Ends

Real GDP: 2005 to 2012

November 19, 2009 2

Source: IHS Global Insight, Inc.

William F. Fox, Center for Business and Economic Research, http://cber.bus.utk.edu

Growth in Quarterly Real Personal Consumption Expenditures (Chained 2005 Dollars)

November 19, 2009 William F. Fox, Center for Business and Economic Research, http://cber.bus.utk.edu

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Unit Sales of New Light Vehicles and Housing Starts

November 19, 2009 William F. Fox, Center for Business and Economic Research, http://cber.bus.utk.edu

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FHFA Housing Price Index: 2005 to 2012

November 19, 2009 William F. Fox, Center for Business and Economic Research, http://cber.bus.utk.edu

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Source: IHS Global Insight, Inc.

U.S./Euro Foreign Exchange Rate and Real Exports Less Imports

November 19, 2009 William F. Fox, Center for Business and Economic Research, http://cber.bus.utk.edu

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Unified Federal Budget Surplus

November 19, 2009 William F. Fox, Center for Business and Economic Research, http://cber.bus.utk.edu

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$561 Billion Stimulus Injection2009–2010

November 19, 2009 William F. Fox, Center for Business and Economic Research, http://cber.bus.utk.edu

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Boost to GDP

Interest Rates and Inflation

November 19, 2009 William F. Fox, Center for Business and Economic Research, http://cber.bus.utk.edu

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TN and U.S. Nonag Job Growth (Year over Year)

November 19, 2009 William F. Fox, Center for Business and Economic Research, http://cber.bus.utk.edu

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Change in U.S. Employment*August 2008 vs. August 2009

State Private State & Local State Private State & Local

Michigan (9.39) (1.49) Washington (4.60) (0.52)Arizona (8.33) (4.18) Miss iss ippi (4.44) 2.99Nevada (7.30) (2.74) Hawai i (4.44) (2.05)Oregon (6.97) (0.76) Connecticut (4.26) (2.54)Idaho (6.47) (0.50) Oklahoma (4.16) 2.06Georgia (6.42) (3.32) West Vi rginia (4.01) (0.50)North Carol ina (6.28) 0.36 Texas (3.87) 3.02Indiana (6.09) (2.57) Iowa (3.85) 0.24Alabama (5.99) (0.96) Virginia (3.85) (0.32)I l l inois (5.88) (0.40) Rhode Is land (3.80) (5.04)Cal i fornia (5.79) (0.85) Pennsylvania (3.72) 0.19Colorado (5.73) 1.45 Maine (3.68) (2.20)Ohio (5.63) (1.43) Missouri (3.66) 0.65Florida (5.51) (0.74) Massachusetts (3.34) (2.26)Utah (5.46) 1.09 New Jersey (3.22) (1.29)Kentucky (5.43) (1.84) New Hampshire (3.16) 1.58Tennessee (5.41) 2.02 Arkansas (3.12) 3.03Delaware (5.21) (5.38) Maryland (3.04) (1.14)Wyoming (5.11) 1.78 New York (2.83) 3.17Minnesota (5.06) 0.23 Nebraska (2.76) 4.45New Mexico (4.88) 0.38 South Dakota (2.25) 1.13Wiscons in (4.82) 2.42 Louis iana (2.25) 0.99South Carol ina (4.75) (1.60) Montana (2.13) 5.21Vermont (4.72) 2.09 Alaska (0.68) 1.62Kansas (4.68) 1.62 North Dakota (0.34) 2.62

November 19, 2009 William F. Fox, Center for Business and Economic Research, http://cber.bus.utk.edu

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Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.

*not seasonally adjusted

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U.S. Monthly Employment by Sector Compared to Recession Start(1 year before peak through Aug 2009)

November 19, 2009 William F. Fox, Center for Business and Economic Research, http://cber.bus.utk.edu

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Source: Calculated by CBER using data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (Current Employment Statistics database).

TN and U.S. Unemployment Rates (Seasonally Adjusted)

November 19, 2009 William F. Fox, Center for Business and Economic Research, http://cber.bus.utk.edu

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Tennessee Job Growth by Sector(Quarter Ending Sept 2008 to Sept 2009)

November 19, 2009 William F. Fox, Center for Business and Economic Research, http://cber.bus.utk.edu

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Tennessee Manufacturing Jobs, 1990-2008

November 19, 2009 William F. Fox, Center for Business and Economic Research, http://cber.bus.utk.edu

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Nonag Employment Growth, MSAs (Quarter Ending Sept 2008 to Sept 2009)

November 19, 2009 William F. Fox, Center for Business and Economic Research, http://cber.bus.utk.edu

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Percent Growth in Total Tax Revenue Collections, FY2008-2009

November 19, 2009 William F. Fox, Center for Business and Economic Research, http://cber.bus.utk.edu

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Greater than -5.7% --18--

-10.0% to -5.7% --18--

Less than -10.0% --14--

U.S. = -8.2 %