South African Institute of International Affairs (SAIIA)

Presentation to the Portfolio Committee on Foreign Affairs

Analysis of the DFA 2008-2009 budget and programmatic alignment

Wednesday 7 May, 2008

Presented by Tim Hughes

The Brief Given to SAIIA

• Provide a critical view on the previous and current budget, as well as the strategic objectives.

• Are the set objectives achievable in the current allocation?

DFA Programmes

• Programme 1: Administration• Programme 2: Foreign Relations• Programme 3: Public Diplomacy and Protocol• Programme 4: International transfers

DFA Programme 1: Administration

• “Conduct the overall policy development management and management of the department.”

DFA Programme 2: Foreign Relations Objectives

• Consolidation of the African Agenda• Strengthen South-South economic and

political relations• Strengthen North-South economic and

political co-operation• Promote South Africa’s interests

internationally

...Foreign Relations Objectives ctd.

• Increase foreign representation in Asia and Africa• Strengthen the governance, structures and

capacity of the African Union• Support SADC and its structures• Support the development of the African

continent

DFA Programme 3: Public Diplomacy and Protocol Objectives

• Provide logistical, media and communication support to the Ministry

• Provide protocol and diplomacy services, e.g. Diaspora Conference, NAASP Summit, NEPAD Heads of Implementation Committee, African Ministers Meeting and during SA’s Chairing of SADC commencing August 2008

DFA Programme 4: International Transfers

• Fund membership fees and transfers to international organisations

DFA Budget Summary

R Thousand

2008-2009 2009-2010 2010-2011

Total to be appropriated Total Total

MTEF Allocation

Administration 1 049 913 1 510 070 1 150 877

Foreign Relations 2 410 711 2 638 677 2 802 568

Public Diplomacy and Protocol 147 258 224 032 164 114

International Transfers 732 826 789 836 822 847

Total Expenditure Estimates 4 340 708 5 162 615 4 940 406

DFA Strategic Plan Key Performance Areas

Key Performance Area Number of priorities and objectives

Consolidation of the African Agenda 7

Strengthen South-South Co-operation 6

Strengthen North-South Co-operation 3

Participate in the Global System of Governance

13

Strengthen Political and Economic Relations

10

Organisational support 9

Organisational Strengthening 6

Rendering of Professional Services 6

Communication 3

DFA Programmes

PROGRAMME 1

Administration

Budget Allocation 2008/09 R 1 049 913 (R million)

Budget Allocation 2009/10 R 1 510 070 (R million)

Budget Allocation 2010/11 R 1 150 877 (R million)

OBJECTIVES OUTPUTS / DELIVERABLES INDICATORS / TARGETS

14 25 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11

30 29 29

PROGRAMME 2

Foreign Relations

Budget Allocation 2008/09 R 2 410 711 (R million)

Budget Allocation 2009/10 R 2 638 677 (R million)

Budget Allocation 2010/11 R 2 802 568 (R million)

OBJECTIVES OUTPUTS / DELIVERABLES INDICATORS / TARGETS

42 75 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11

89 83 79 PROGRAMME

3 Public

Diplomacy & Protocol Services

Budget Allocation 2008/09 R 147 258 (R million)

Budget Allocation 2009/10 R 224 032 (R million)

Budget Allocation 2010/11 R 164 114 (R million)

OBJECTIVES OUTPUTS / DELIVERABLES INDICATORS / TARGETS

8 8 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11

10 10 10

Expenditure Estimates: A Trend

Expenditure Estimates: A Breakdown

Expenditure Estimates 2006/07 Expenditure Estimates 2010/11

Expenditure Estimates Growth

Departmental strategic alignment?

• Is the DFA’s Strategic Plan and Budget aligned with South Africa’s interests?

Diplomatic Missions Abroad

Indicators

Annual Performance

Past Current Projected

2004-2005 2005-2006 2006-2007 2007-2008 2008-2009 2009-2010 2010-2011

Total number of diplomatic missions abroad 105 111 119 123 127 130 133

Africa 35 39 43 47 48 50 52

Asia and Middle East 27 29 31 31 34 35 35

Americas and Carribean 17 17 18 18 18 18 19

Europe 26 26 27 27 27 27 27

Bilateral Relations Management: Stack

Total Foreign Relations

Comparative GDP Growth for Key Developing Nations

Exports to Continents Imports from Continents

0

50000000

100000000

150000000

200000000

250000000

300000000

350000000

Europe Asia Americas Africa Pacific Asia Euope Americas Africa Pacific

Tra

de in

(R

'000

)

2007

2004

Export to / Import from Continents

South African Exports (Top Ten Regions)

0

30000000

60000000

90000000

120000000

150000000

180000000

210000000

240000000

EU North-EastAsia

NAFTA SADC China MiddleEast

EFTA SAARC OCEANIA ASEAN

Exp

ort

s in

R '0

00

2007

2004

South African Exports (Top 10 Regions)

South African Imports (Top Ten Regions)

0

50000000

100000000

150000000

200000000

250000000

300000000

350000000

Imp

ort

s (R

'000

)

2004 2007

South African Imports (Top 10 Regions)

South Africa's Trade Balance by

-80000000

-60000000

-40000000

-20000000

0

20000000

40000000

SADC North-EastAsia

NAFTA North-EastAfrica

EFTA MiddleEast

EuropeanUnion

China ASEAN Mercosur

Trad

e B

alan

ce in

R '0

00

2004 2007

SA Trade Balance by Region

South African Exports (Top Ten Countries)

0

20000000

40000000

60000000

80000000

100000000

120000000

Ex

po

rts

in

R '0

00

2004 2007

SA Exports

South African Imports (Top Ten Countries)

0

20000000

40000000

60000000

80000000

100000000

120000000

Ger

man

y

China

United S

tate

s

Japan

United K

ingdom

Saudi A

rabia

Iran

France

Italy

South K

orea

Imp

ort

s i

n R

'00

0

2004 2007

SA Imports

South African Exports (Top Ten African Countries)

0

5000000

10000000

15000000

20000000

Zambia

Moza

mbiq

ue

Zimbab

we

Angola

Niger

ia

Kenya

Dem R

ep o

f Congo

Tanza

nia

Ghan

a

Mal

awi

Ex

po

rt in

R '0

00

2004 2007

SA Exports (Africa)

South African Imports (Top Ten African Countries)

0

5000000

10000000

15000000

20000000

Imp

ort

s in

R '0

00

2004 2007

SA Imports (Africa)

South African Trade Balance (Key African Countries)

-12000000

-10000000

-8000000

-6000000

-4000000

-2000000

0

2000000

4000000

6000000

8000000

10000000

12000000

Tra

de B

ala

nce in

R '0

00

2004 2007

SA Trade Balance by Africa

Departmental Capacity Alignment?

• Does the Department have the capacity to achieve its complex and expanding objectives and commitments?

Employment Vacancies by Salary Bands (%)

Vacancies in critical occupations (%)

Vacancy Rate by Programme

Departmental Transformation

• Has the Department transformed?

Percentage of Males in Occupational Bands

Percentage of Females in Occupational Bands

Senior Management

Professionally Qualified, Experienced and Mid-Management

Skilled Technical and Academically Qualified Workers

Questions for consideration

• Why was the R100m requested for Organisational Strengthening refused by Treasury?

• Why was only R22million of R74 million approved for strengthening Missions in Asia and Africa?

• Why was only R18 million of R35 million approved for Chairing SADC 2008/09?

....Questions for consideration ctd

• Is Foreign Service Institute producing the calibre of diplomat required, with the range of skills required?

• Is the PRAU producing relevant, high quality policy research?

• Can we achieve institutional continuity?• Do our diplomats have the requisite policy skills and

understanding to strengthen SA’s economic diplomacy?

• Do our diplomats have the required language skills?

....Questions for consideration ctd

• Are we being realistic in REC harmonisation timelines?

• Are our African Missions equipped to strengthen NEPAD?

• What role do our military attaches play (early warning & intel?)

• Is DFA planning and building capacity to tackle the new emerging threats to Africa, viz climate change, energy security, water stress, migration?

The impact of domestic politics on DFA

• Presidential succession• Institutional flux or continuity?• New Ministers and DG• Foreign Affairs priorities post 2009?• Role of Presidency and PCAS?• Relationship between Presidency, DFA and

parliament?

Thank you