presentation to icsi on m&a valuations regional conference by ca. manish khanna sept 19, 2015

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Presentation to ICSI On M&A Valuations Regional Conference By CA. Manish Khanna Sept 19, 2015

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Page 1: Presentation to ICSI On M&A Valuations Regional Conference By CA. Manish Khanna Sept 19, 2015

Presentation to ICSI

On M&A Valuations

Regional Conference By CA. Manish Khanna

Sept 19, 2015

Page 2: Presentation to ICSI On M&A Valuations Regional Conference By CA. Manish Khanna Sept 19, 2015

Overview of the PresentationAgenda

I. Introduction to M&A related Valuation

II. Dynamics of M&A Valuation

A. Drivers of M&A and Role of an Investment Banker

B. Valuation Methodologies and the “Football Field”

III. IPO Valuation

A. What Matters and is Most Important?

B. In-depth IPO Valuation

Agenda

Page 3: Presentation to ICSI On M&A Valuations Regional Conference By CA. Manish Khanna Sept 19, 2015

Introduction to M&A related Valuation

Page 4: Presentation to ICSI On M&A Valuations Regional Conference By CA. Manish Khanna Sept 19, 2015

Valuation is a Central Discipline in Investment Banking

Nearly Every Activity in Investment Banking and Private Equity is Driven by Valuation Analyses Determining the value of the Company is generally the first step

– M&A Determining the value in a transaction⇛

– Equity Capital Pricing the Initial Public Offering⇛

– Leveraged Finance Determining collateral value and/or financing capacity⇛ Securities design and pricing is an extension of the same fundamental concepts

Valuation Requires the Interpretation of Information and Sound Judgment (Balance of “Science” & “Art”) Information provides a foundation of knowledge about the asset and the marketplace Interpretation of the information and correct judgment distinguishes the quality of the analysis

At the Core, Valuation is About Finding the Equilibrium Between Risk and Reward Fair market value is typically defined as the price at which a willing buyer and a willing seller will

transact around an asset / company when both have complete information and neither is under any compulsion to act

Obviously, buyers and sellers may value assets differently based on a variety of factors, thereby creating a market

Valuation OverviewIntroduction to Valuation

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Page 5: Presentation to ICSI On M&A Valuations Regional Conference By CA. Manish Khanna Sept 19, 2015

Firm Value (or “Enterprise Value”) The total value of an operating business regardless of its capital structure

Equity Value (or “Market Value of Equity”, “Market Value” or “Market Cap”) The value of an operating business to its equity holders The value of an operating business after the satisfaction of its creditors and preferred claim holders

Equity ValueNet DebtFirm Value equalsless

Valuation Overview (Cont’d)

Definition of Key Terms

Introduction to Valuation

Net Debt The sum of:

– Total indebtedness for borrowed money

– Preferred claims against the value of the business Less the sum of:

– Cash and cash equivalents

Preferred Claims against the Value of the Business May include preferred stock, “out-of-the-money” convertible securities or minority interests

2

Page 6: Presentation to ICSI On M&A Valuations Regional Conference By CA. Manish Khanna Sept 19, 2015

Control Value

IPO Value

Typically involves a premium over the publicly traded equity value

Ability to control the Board, management and strategy of the business

Ability to integrate with other assets and capture synergies

Ability to access all cash flows and create the optimal capital structure

Commonly represented by publicly traded equity value

Assumes adequate liquidity in the market

Generally subject to existing Board, management and strategy

Access to cash flow limited to dividends

Typically involves a discount to the publicly traded

equity value

Discount reflects a lack of market history and therefore certain liquidity and valuation risk

Also reflects an attempt to “entice” shareholders of similar companies to buy IPO (bargain price)

@ IPO

@ Trading

@ M&A

Valuation Overview (Cont’d)

Definition of Key Terms

Introduction to Valuation

Fully Distributed Equity Value

3

Page 7: Presentation to ICSI On M&A Valuations Regional Conference By CA. Manish Khanna Sept 19, 2015

Dynamics of M&A Valuation

Page 8: Presentation to ICSI On M&A Valuations Regional Conference By CA. Manish Khanna Sept 19, 2015

M&A Valuation

Drivers of Mergers & Acquisitions

Compelling Strategic Rationale for a Transaction Diversification vs. Focus (Broaden or Narrow Business

Mix) Manage Market Position and Scale (Commit to a

Product / Market or Exit) Geographic Expansion vs. Retrenchment (Globalization

/ Cost of Entry) Vertical Integration vs. Outsourcing Defensive (What If Our Competitor / Pursuer Wins?)

Compelling Financial Rationale for a Transaction Low Relative Cost or High Relative Opportunity Financing Markets (Ability to Leverage Equity Returns) Equity Market Perception / Reaction (Valuation Metrics /

Business Model / Growth / Profitability) Financial Synergies (Different Value Available to

Different Owners) Financial Stress (Company Selling Subsidiary to Raise

Cash) Financial Sponsor Exit

Other Reasons Management Ego Change in Management

Why Deals Happen Insufficient Strategic or Financial Rationale

Management / Board of Directors Resistance (Social Issues)

Market / Shareholder Concerns (Dilution / Lack of Understanding / Credibility)

Inadequate Financial Resources Available to the Buyers

Anti-Trust Considerations

Changes in Relative Valuation

Accounting, Tax, Legal, and Environmental Issues Are Insurmountable

Regulatory (Domestic or Abroad)

Why Deals Don’t Happen

Why Deals Happen and Don’t Happen

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Page 9: Presentation to ICSI On M&A Valuations Regional Conference By CA. Manish Khanna Sept 19, 2015

M&A Valuation

What are the Deal Mechanics and the Process?

Exclusive Sale Private Sale to a Single Buyer Limited Auction (Formal vs. Informal) Full Auction (Public vs. Private)

Buy-Side Mandate Willing Target Pursuing a Sale Process Unsolicited Approach – Target Attitude Unknown

(Formal vs. Informal)– Friendly Negotiations– “Bear Hug” – Target is Resistant (Disclosure Issues)– Hostile Offer

Equity Restructurings Spin-off – shares of subsidiary distributed tax-free to all

parent shareholders on a pro-rata basis Split-off – shares of subsidiary distributed tax-free to

self-selected parent shareholders Targeted Stock – distributed tax-free in either manner

outlined above or IPO’

Leveraged Buyouts and Recapitalizations

Types of Deals and Processes Asset Sale

Transaction of specific assets and liabilities Required if operations are not held in a distinct

subsidiary or set of subsidiaries Provides the buyer the ability to deduct transaction

goodwill for tax purposes

Stock Sale

Subsid./Private Company Transaction Structures

Types of Deals and Structures

5

Page 10: Presentation to ICSI On M&A Valuations Regional Conference By CA. Manish Khanna Sept 19, 2015

Role of a financial advisor

Drive the Process – From “cradle to grave”

Valuation Advice – Provide comprehensive financial analysis to formulate (buyside) or evaluate (sellside) a bid

Diligence – Assist client in the completion of a thorough and organized diligence process

Marketing – Assist client in preparing diligence materials and public / investor communications

Structuring – Structure transaction to meet the needs of the parties

Market Intelligence – Provide industry knowledge, a perspective on any public market activity and the ability to assess the likelihood of other potential bidders of the target

Bidding Strategy – Advise the client on the best way to ensure success

Financing – Arrange financing alternatives (if necessary)

Negotiations – Increase negotiating flexibility and leverage by acting as a go-between with the other side

Opinion – Deliver fairness opinion (if appropriate)

Market Reaction – Anticipate market reaction and marketability of securities

A financial advisor performs a broad range of functions in the M&A process

M&A Valuation

6

Page 11: Presentation to ICSI On M&A Valuations Regional Conference By CA. Manish Khanna Sept 19, 2015

What is a Football Field?

Fairness Opinion Presents the range of “fair value” for a Board of Directors’ consideration in a sale context Provides guidance to justify a bid value in a buy-side

Sell-Side Summarizes proposed positioning and target valuation range based on preliminary analysis

Buy-Side Demonstrates knowledge of the asset, suggests how other buyers might approach valuation and

provides bid range guidance

Internal Reference For example – supports loan to value analysis when examining financing alternatives

Important to remember that the valuation metrics used will vary

depending on both the industry and the assignment

A football field summarizes the various metrics and assumptions used to determine the valuation of a company or business segment

M&A Valuation

7

Page 12: Presentation to ICSI On M&A Valuations Regional Conference By CA. Manish Khanna Sept 19, 2015

Summary of Valuation MethodologiesMultiple types of valuation analyses will be included in a valuation summary depending on industry, type of presentation, available information and numerous other factors

Metric ConsiderationsTrading

ValueControl

ValuePrivate Co.

Metric

Forward P/E, P/CF, EV/EBITDA, EV/Revenue most common – may show more than one metric

LTM P/E, P/CF, EV/EBITDA, EV/Revenue most common – may show more than one metric. Operational metrics used too, particularly in commodity-oriented businesses

Make sure to apply premium to unaffected price (i.e. pre-announcement or pre-leak)

Alternatively, may apply premium to trading multiples

Choose appropriate target range of IRR Solve for price based on fixed leverage and range of exit

multiples

Option to show with and/or without synergies

Use for distinct business segments or individual assets with different value parameters

Used as reference point 52-week most common; also 3-months, 6-months, period

since significant event

Used as reference point High/low research price targets; check length of time

forward and ensure consistent (or discount back)

Trading Multiples

Equity Research Price Targets

Comparable Transactions

Leveraged Buyout

Stock Price Trading Ranges

Premiums Paid

Discounted Cash Flow

M&A Valuation

Sum-of-the-Parts

8

Page 13: Presentation to ICSI On M&A Valuations Regional Conference By CA. Manish Khanna Sept 19, 2015

Source of the Assumptions / Data

The Projections Consideration must be given to which projections to use – can present multiple cases or one case only Fairness opinion valuations may involve a base case and a downside and should be provided by or

blessed by management Buy-side valuations may involve management case and revised due diligence case If preliminary valuation, consider adding due diligence contingencies for unknown factors that may impact

value

The Key Assumptions Trading Comps: must have back-up for all analysis and consistently apply methodology (e.g. exclude

finance subsidiaries, include / exclude underfunded pension liabilities, etc.) Transaction Comps: be sure to use publicly available data if creating a fairness opinion for a public

company; and be thorough in your search – have rationale for exclusion of deals Exit multiples: justify LBO and DCF exit multiples through trading and transaction comps or cycle analysis WACC: perform a detailed WACC analysis to justify discount rates for DCF Leverage: discuss leverage assumptions to make appropriate LBO valuation Premiums: clearly define the transaction size, time period and reference point of premiums used in

analysis Share count: use exercisable or outstanding options where appropriate Change in Control Costs: review proxy materials to determine if change in control costs are relevant

An analysis is only as good as its inputs

Always keep good back-up of all data sources and assumptions

M&A Valuation

9

Page 14: Presentation to ICSI On M&A Valuations Regional Conference By CA. Manish Khanna Sept 19, 2015

Determining Appropriate Valuation Ranges

“Science” Market information; financial data Mechanics of valuation methodologies

“Art” Valuation inputs and assumptions are based on industry knowledge, experience and

common sense Senior bankers and industry coverage will opine on the appropriate ranges and

assumptions

Individual valuation ranges may seem reasonable, but do they make sense with respect to one another? i.e., Transaction multiples vs. trading multiples

Are assumptions consistent between methodologies? i.e., DCF or LBO exit multiples vs. trading multiples or transaction multiples

Is the valuation range too wide or too narrow? Go back and check the assumptions and calculations

Are there any outliers in the comparable multiples? Are the earnings drivers correct? (i.e., FCFE & earnings for equity value multiples,

EBITDA for enterprise value multiples) Have I used the right share count (exercisable vs. outstanding options)? Is implied perpetuity growth rate appropriate? What metric does the industry trade on?

Step Back and Look at the “Bigger Picture”

Sanity Check

“Science” vs. “Art”

M&A Valuation

Science, Art or Sanity?

11

Page 15: Presentation to ICSI On M&A Valuations Regional Conference By CA. Manish Khanna Sept 19, 2015

$975

$1,100

$1,150

$850

$1,000

$925

$1,000

$1,025

$1,100

$1,100

$850 $925 $1,000 $1,075 $1,150 $1,225

Comparable Transactions

Private Equity LBO

Infrastructure LBO

Ability-to-Pay

Discounted Cash Flow

Preliminary Valuation – the “Football Field”

Preliminary Review of Valuation Parameters

Initial EBITDA Multiple: 14x – 16x

EBITDA Multiple Range: 8x – 10x

Enterprise Value ($MM):

WACC: 8.0%-10.0%

Terminal EBITDA Multiple: 10.0x

M&A Valuation

Target 0% 2012 AccretionMLPs: 11.0x to 13.0x 2012 EBITDAMLPs: 10.0x to 12.0x 2013 EBITDA

Exit Multiple: 10.0x

IRRs: 10%-15%

Exit Multiple: 10.0x

IRRs: 17.5%-22.5%

EBITDA Multiple Statistic

2011 $66.5 12.8x 13.9x 15.0x 16.2x 17.3x 18.4x

2011 PF $80.8 10.5x 11.5x 12.4x 13.3x 14.2x 15.2x

2013 $91.9 9.2x 10.1x 10.9x 11.7x 12.5x 13.3x

2014 $102.4 8.3x 9.0x 9.8x 10.5x 11.2x 12.0x

13

Page 16: Presentation to ICSI On M&A Valuations Regional Conference By CA. Manish Khanna Sept 19, 2015

Purchase Price Ratio AnalysisM&A Valuation

Preliminary Valuation Analysis

PPR Analysis($ in millions)

Enterprise Value $900 $950 $1,000 $1,050 $1,100 $1,150 $1,200 $1,250

Less: Projected OpCo Debt (6/30/11) (294) (294) (294) (294) (294) (294) (294) (294)

Implied Equity Value to the Buyer $606 $656 $706 $756 $806 $856 $906 $956

Less: Projected HoldCo Debt (6/30/11) (305) (305) (305) (305) (305) (305) (305) (305)

Net Proceeds to Sponsor A $301 $351 $401 $451 $501 $551 $601 $651

Enterprise Value as a Multiple of: Statistic:

2011E PF EBITDA $80.8 11.1x 11.8x 12.4x 13.0x 13.6x 14.2x 14.9x 15.5x

2012E Cash EBITDA 71.9 12.5x 13.2x 13.9x 14.6x 15.3x 16.0x 16.7x 17.4x

2013E Cash EBITDA 91.9 9.8x 10.3x 10.9x 11.4x 12.0x 12.5x 13.1x 13.6x

2014E Cash EBITDA 102.4 8.8x 9.3x 9.8x 10.3x 10.7x 11.2x 11.7x 12.2x

14

Page 17: Presentation to ICSI On M&A Valuations Regional Conference By CA. Manish Khanna Sept 19, 2015

M&A Valuation

Discounted Cash Flow Analysis

DCF Analysis

Present Value of Terminal ValueDiscount PV of Based on EBITDA Multiples of: Preliminary Enterprise Value Preliminary Equity Value to the Buyer

Rate Cash Flows 9.0x 9.5x 10.0x 10.5x 11.0x 9.0x 9.5x 10.0x 10.5x 11.0x 9.0x 9.5x 10.0x 10.5x 11.0x10.0% $275.9 $673.8 $711.3 $748.7 $786.2 $823.6 $949.7 $987.1 $1,024.6 $1,062.0 $1,099.5 $655 $693 $730 $768 $8059.0% $282.5 $702.1 $741.1 $780.1 $819.1 $858.1 $984.6 $1,023.6 $1,062.6 $1,101.6 $1,140.6 $690 $729 $768 $807 $8468.0% $289.3 $731.8 $772.5 $813.2 $853.8 $894.5 $1,021.2 $1,061.8 $1,102.5 $1,143.1 $1,183.8 $727 $767 $808 $849 $889

($ millions) Year-End2H 2011E 2012E 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E

EBITDA $37.4 $80.3 $97.1 $104.6 $111.3 $115.0Contract Amortization (4.1) (8.3) (5.2) (2.2) (1.8) Maintenance Capital Expenditures (0.9) (2.7) (2.0) (2.0) (2.1) Growth Capital Expenditures (22.6) (19.9) (2.0) - - Unlevered Free Cash Flow 0 9.7 49.4 87.9 100.4 107.4 1,149.7

Terminal Value Calculation2016E EBITDA 115.0FWD EBITDA Multiple 10.0xTerminal Enterprise Value of FCF $1,149.7

Discount Rate 9.0% 9.0% 9.0% 9.0% 9.0% 9.0%Discount Factor 0.979 0.917 0.842 0.772 0.708 0.679PV of Cash Flows $9.5 $45.3 $74.0 $77.5 $76.1 $780.1

Enterprise Value $1,062.1

Less: OpCo Debt (6/30/11) ($294.4)

Less: HoldCo Debt (6/30/11) ($305.0)

Net Proceeds to Sponsor A $462.7

15

Page 18: Presentation to ICSI On M&A Valuations Regional Conference By CA. Manish Khanna Sept 19, 2015

M&A Valuation

Discounted Cash Flow Analysis (Upside Case)

DCF Analysis

Present Value of Terminal ValueDiscount PV of Based on EBITDA Multiples of: Preliminary Enterprise Value Preliminary Equity Value to the Buyer

Rate Cash Flows 9.0x 9.5x 10.0x 10.5x 11.0x 9.0x 9.5x 10.0x 10.5x 11.0x 9.0x 9.5x 10.0x 10.5x 11.0x11.0% $255.9 $719.4 $759.3 $799.3 $839.3 $879.2 $975.3 $1,015.3 $1,055.2 $1,095.2 $1,135.1 $681 $721 $761 $801 $84110.0% $262.4 $749.3 $790.9 $832.5 $874.1 $915.8 $1,011.7 $1,053.3 $1,094.9 $1,136.6 $1,178.2 $717 $759 $801 $842 $8849.0% $269.2 $780.7 $824.1 $867.4 $910.8 $954.2 $1,049.8 $1,093.2 $1,136.6 $1,180.0 $1,223.3 $755 $799 $842 $886 $929

The valuation below includes all of the potential expansion projects and is discounted at a 10% rate to account for the additional risk associated with un-contracted projects

($ millions) Year-End2H 2011E 2012E 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E

EBITDA $37.4 $80.3 $97.1 $117.0 $123.9 $127.8Contract Amortization (4.1) (8.3) (5.2) (2.2) (1.8) Maintenance Capital Expenditures (0.9) (2.7) (2.0) (2.0) (2.1) Growth Capital Expenditures (22.6) (38.0) (18.2) (2.0) - Unlevered Free Cash Flow 0 9.7 31.2 71.8 110.8 120.1 1,278.4

Terminal Value Calculation2016E EBITDA 127.8FWD EBITDA Multiple 10.0xTerminal Enterprise Value of FCF $1,278.4

Discount Rate 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0%Discount Factor 0.976 0.909 0.826 0.751 0.683 0.651PV of Cash Flows $9.5 $28.4 $59.3 $83.2 $82.0 $832.5

Enterprise Value $1,094.3

Less: OpCo Debt (6/30/11) ($294.4)

Less: HoldCo Debt (6/30/11) ($305.0)

Net Proceeds to Sponsor A $494.9

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Page 19: Presentation to ICSI On M&A Valuations Regional Conference By CA. Manish Khanna Sept 19, 2015

IPO Valuation

Page 20: Presentation to ICSI On M&A Valuations Regional Conference By CA. Manish Khanna Sept 19, 2015

The equity of fundamentally similar, or “comparable” companies tends to be valued on a relatively consistent basis by the public markets Broadly speaking, if Company A competes in the same industry as Company B, using a similar

business model, the equity markets are likely to value the two businesses in a relatively consistent manner

The Comparable Company Analysis seeks to identify a group or “universe” of public companies which are deemed fundamentally comparable to the target and compares the “market trading multiples” of these companies to determine a range of value for the target, expressed in valuation multiples

By analyzing certain key ratios and operating data for each of the comparable companies it is possible to determine how the comparable companies valued relative to their profitability, growth prospects, etc. Public markets typically place premiums to companies which portrays growth and margin profiles better

than those of industry average

As Comparable Company Analysis is based on an analysis of currently publicly trading companies, valuations received by the comparable universe DO NOT typically reflect: Premium a buyer must pay for control of a company in an M&A transaction; or Discount the market may place on shares which are newly introduced in an IPO

Comparable Company Analysis Defined

Comparable Company Analysis Explained

IPO Valuation

23

Page 21: Presentation to ICSI On M&A Valuations Regional Conference By CA. Manish Khanna Sept 19, 2015

Comparable Company Analysis Defined (Cont’d)

What is it? Use of Trading Multiples

IPO Valuation

Fundamental valuation tool used for deriving

company value

Helps in benchmarking performance and

valuations across companies within a sector

Valuation tool based on how comparable

companies are valued by the stock market as a

multiple of profit, sales or other parameters

Assumes that the stock market is relatively

efficient in valuing comparable companies

Importance

Initial Public Offering

Buy-side M&A

Sell-Side M&A

Add-on financings

Share repurchases

Leveraged Buy-out

Most Widely Used Valuation Tool

24

Page 22: Presentation to ICSI On M&A Valuations Regional Conference By CA. Manish Khanna Sept 19, 2015

IPO Valuation

Enterprise and Equity Value Multiples

Takes into account capital structure in decision making

Denominator after interest expense

Main multiples are P/E ratio Equity Market Value / Net Income Price / Book ratio Price / CFPS

Equity Value Multiples Focus towards quality of operation

Unlevered Capital Structure

Denominator before interest expense

Main multiples are EV / Sales EV / EBITDA EV / EBIT or EV / EBITA EV / Capital Employed EV / Subscribers (telecom, similar ratios based on operating

figures in other industries)

Enterprise Value Multiples

Summary Statistics Mean, Median, High Low (The Median is the most meaningful statistic because it will naturally screen

outliers)

Outliers should be evaluated and possibly eliminated

Summarize the Results

25

Page 23: Presentation to ICSI On M&A Valuations Regional Conference By CA. Manish Khanna Sept 19, 2015

Comparison of Multiples

Multiple Advantage Disadvantage

EV / Sales

Meaningful for loss-making companies Very limited impact of

accounting differences

Does not take differences in profitability into account

EV / EBITDA No distortions based on different

depreciation policies Does not take differences in capital

expenditures into account

EV / EBIT Valuation based on quality of operation Possible distortions based on different

accounting policies

EV / Capital Employed

Based on invested capital, which determines potential earnings power

Does not take differences in profitability into account

Distortions through accounting differences

P/E Ratio Focuses on earnings to shareholders Accounting differences may distort true

measures of earnings

Price / CFPS “Cash is king” Does not take differences in capital

expenditures into account

Price / Book Based on equity, which determines

earnings power Does not take differences in profitability

into account

Choice of the Multiple Depends on Industry, Profitability, Accounting Regimes

IPO Valuation

26

Page 24: Presentation to ICSI On M&A Valuations Regional Conference By CA. Manish Khanna Sept 19, 2015

Industry and Sector Outlook

Competitive Position

Research Views

Historical Performance One of Key Indicators of Future Performance Revenue Growth Operating Margins

Qualitative Factors Impact Market’s Belief of the Company’s Future Performance Management Quality and Track Record Corporate and Operating Strategy Ownership Profile

Valuation ultimately assesses the present value of the potential future financial rewards

Current trading valuations or “multiples” of a Company are a reflection of public market’s belief in the future financial rewards by owning the securities of the Company

Cash Flow

Net Income

Regulatory Issues

Environmental Issues

Legal Issues

Understanding Key Drivers of “Multiples”

Why Do Comparable Companies Differ in Valuation?

IPO Valuation

27

Page 25: Presentation to ICSI On M&A Valuations Regional Conference By CA. Manish Khanna Sept 19, 2015

Many Factors are Evaluated at Time of IPO

IPO Valuation

What Else Matters in an IPO?

Peer Group: Clear peer group with sizeable number of companies Only need one; none allows Company / Banks to define the “valuation / story”

Liquidity: % of float vs. other comparable companies Need adequate IPO size to attract institutional investors

Growth: What are organic and acquisitive growth prospects of the Company? How do those projects / returns compare vs. peers and how achievable / financeable are they?

Stability vs. Volatility: Is Company’s business volatile, risky, stable, cyclical? Ability to dampen volatility or smooth out earnings? Capital structure and risk policies

Stage of Company: What stage is the Company experiencing in its life cycle? Developing, nascent, growth, mature? Capital structure and cash flow generation / reinvestment

Capital Structure: Credit ratings and leverage vs. peers and appropriate levels for Company / industry

Market Conditions at time of IPO

Management, Board composition and PE backing

Banking relationships and research coverage Credit support and capital markets access in the future

28

Page 26: Presentation to ICSI On M&A Valuations Regional Conference By CA. Manish Khanna Sept 19, 2015

IPO Valuation

Relative Benchmarking

$15,717

$7,412 $7,292

$2,000 $1,716

$0

$4,000

$8,000

$12,000

$16,000

Peer 3 Peer 2 Peer 1 Company B Peer 4

$ in millions

Enterprise Value ($ in millions)

5,030

4,445

2,254

970 857

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

Peer 3 Peer 1 Peer 2 Peer 4 Company B

tons in millions

2010A Reserves (million tons)

EBITDA CAGR: 2011E – 2013E 2010A EBITDA / ton

41.6%

16.1%

10.1% 9.5%7.0%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

Company B Peer 1 Peer 4 Peer 3 Peer 2

%$12.50

$9.69$8.87

$4.65

$3.39

$0.00

$2.00

$4.00

$6.00

$8.00

$10.00

$12.00

Peer 3 Peer 2 Company B Peer 1 Peer 4

$/ton

___________________________Note: Peer group data as per company filing and Wall Street equity research. Market data as of 3/23/2011.Note: Company B data per Company’s projections.

Reserves /2011E Prod.

38.6 yrs 27.8 yrs 25.8 yrs 10.0 yrs 29.8 yrs

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Page 27: Presentation to ICSI On M&A Valuations Regional Conference By CA. Manish Khanna Sept 19, 2015

3.1x 2.7x1.9x 2.1x

1.2x1.6x

0.3x1.0x0.7x

2.0x

1.9x2.2x2.2x2.2x

2.8x3.4x

4.0x

1.8x 1.6x

1.0x

0.0x

0.5x

1.0x

1.5x

2.0x

2.5x

3.0x

3.5x

4.0x

4.5x

Peer 6 Peer 8 Peer 7 Peer 10 Peer 1 Peer 4 Peer 3 Peer 9 Peer 5 Peer 2

(Multiple)

Net Debt/LTM EBITDA Total Debt/LTM EBITDA

Relative Benchmarking: Balance Sheet Strength

Total Liquidity (1)

___________________________Source: Company information and IBES Estimates.Note: All companies per 12/31/2010 filings.1. Total liquidity is calculated cash & cash equivalents as of latest balance sheet data plus remaining balance on companies’ revolving credit facility, including LOCs.

IPO Valuation

BB+ (Stable)Ba1 (Stable)

BB (Watch)Ba2 (Watch)

BB (Watch)Ba2 (Watch)

BB- (Stable)Ba3 (Stable)

B+ (Watch)B2 (Stable)

BB- (Pos)B1 (Pos)

B+ (Stable)Caa1 (Stable)

B- (Stable)Caa2 (Stable)

BB- (Stable)Ba3 (Stable)

BB- (Watch)B1 (Stable)

Total Debt/Net Debt/LTM EBITDABB (Watch)Ba2 (Watch)

BB (Watch)Ba2 (Watch)

BB- (Stable)Ba3 (Stable)

Net Debt Median 1.9x

Total Debt Median 2.2x

B- (Stable)Caa2 (Stable)

BB- (Watch)B1 (Stable)

B+ (Watch)B2 (Stable)

BB- (Pos)B1 (Pos)

BB- (Stable)Ba3 (Stable)

B+ (Stable)Caa1 (Stable)

BB+ (Stable)Ba1 (Stable)

$1,713

$952

$775

$330$162

$0

$300

$600

$900

$1,200

$1,500

$1,800

P eer 3 P eer 2 P eer 1 P eer 4 Company B

($ in millions)

2011E Cash Flow from Operations2011E EBITDA

$2,115

$1,181$1,031

$348$236

$0

$300

$600

$900

$1,200

$1,500

$1,800

$2,100

$2,400

Peer 3 Peer 2 Peer 1 Peer 4 Company B

($ in millions)

$2,507

$1,488 $1,480

$1,063

$730

$450 $395 $390$235

$87

$0

$500

$1,000

$1,500

$2,000

$2,500

$3,000

P eer 5 P eer 2 P eer 3 P eer 1 P eer 4 P eer 6 P eer 6 P eer 8 P eer 9 P eer 10

($ in millions)

32

Page 28: Presentation to ICSI On M&A Valuations Regional Conference By CA. Manish Khanna Sept 19, 2015

IPO Valuation

Current Trading Multiples

7.1x 7.4x6.3x

4.9x 5.6x7.2x

5.1x

8.1x 8.8x

0.0x

2.0x

4.0x

6.0x

8.0x

10.0x

Peer 1 Peer 3 Peer 2 Peer 4 Peer 7 Peer 8 Peer 10 Peer 9 Peer 5

Multiple

EV / 2011E EBITDA

EV / 2012E EBITDA

___________________________Note: IBES consensus estimates as of 3/23/2011.

5.5x 6.1x5.3x

4.4x 5.2x 4.5x 4.6x5.6x

7.3x

0.0x

2.0x

4.0x

6.0x

8.0x

10.0x

Peer 1 Peer 3 Peer 2 Peer 4 Peer 7 Peer 8 Peer 10 Peer 9 Peer 5

Multiple

EV / 2013E EBITDA

5.2x6.2x 5.5x

4.1x

6.1x4.5x 5.0x 5.4x

7.1x

0.0x

2.0x

4.0x

6.0x

8.0x

10.0x

Peer 1 Peer 3 Peer 2 Peer 4 Peer 7 Peer 8 Peer 10 Peer 9 Peer 5

Multiple

Secondary Comps OthersPrimary Comp

33