presentation hydrogen and renewable gas forum
TRANSCRIPT
Confidential. © 2020 IHS Markit®. All rights reserved.
Presentation
Hydrogen and Renewable Gas ForumAn introduction to IHS Markit research to date and the ongoing workplan
2020
Hydrogen and Renewable Gas Forum
Confidential. © 2020 IHS Markit®. All rights reserved.
The IHS Markit Hydrogen and Renewable Gas Forum
• Decarbonisation of gas is becoming a key topic for the industry as governments commit to
increasingly ambitious climate targets
• Over the past 2 years IHS Markit has undertaken a series of multiclient studies analysing the
economics of hydrogen and renewable gas and the role it could play in the future
• This work has been brought together in the IHS Markit Hydrogen and Renewable Gas Forum
• The Forum will build on an existing research base—widening the geographic scope, increasing
the depth of the analysis and providing a review of recent developments
2
IHS Markit Hydrogen and Renewable Gas Forum
Confidential. © 2020 IHS Markit®. All rights reserved. 3
(methanation)
Synthetic CH4
+CO2 /CO
LNG
Compressed H2 tube trailers
ororor H2 LH 2
Local water
electrolysis
End use
H2 + O2
H2O
Ammonia / Methanol / LOHC*Conversion
CNGH2
HVDC
e-
Steam reforming
Gasification
Water
electrolysis
H2 + O2
H2O
H2
© 2019 IHS Markit/1736808Source: IHS Markit * Liquid organic hydrogen carriers
IHS Markit Hydrogen supply chain techno-economic analysis
H2
H2
H2 + ½ O2
/
Re-Conversion
LH2
Liquid H2 trucks
or
or direct use
H2 + ½ O2
H2 pipeline
Transmission, distribution and storage End-useProduction
A comprehensive assessment of the low-carbon hydrogen supply chain
IHS Markit Hydrogen and Renewable Gas Forum
Confidential. © 2020 IHS Markit®. All rights reserved.
Agenda
4
• The role of hydrogen and renewable gas in global energy
• Economics of hydrogen production
• The role of hydrogen in a low-carbon economy
• The IHS Markit Hydrogen and Renewable Gas Forum
IHS Markit Hydrogen and Renewable Gas Forum
Confidential. © 2020 IHS Markit®. All rights reserved.
Agenda
5
• The role of hydrogen and renewable gas in global energy
• Economics of hydrogen production
• The role of hydrogen in a low-carbon economy
• The IHS Markit Hydrogen and Renewable Gas Forum
IHS Markit Hydrogen and Renewable Gas Forum
Confidential. © 2020 IHS Markit®. All rights reserved.
• Hydrogen from renewable power can serve multiple roles:
Why hydrogen today? In recent years multiple factors have come together to drive interest in hydrogen
IHS Markit Hydrogen and Renewable Gas Forum
Source: IHS Markit © 2020 IHS Markit
Drivers of increasing interest in hydrogen
6
Environmental policy
Energy independence
Technology development
Versatility
H2
Reduce CO2
emissions
Improve
air quality
Reduce fossil
fuel imports
Falling costs
of renewables
CCS
developments
Applications in all
end use sectors
Technology exports
H2+½O2
H2OInternational sales of
electrolysers & FCEV
Confidential. © 2020 IHS Markit®. All rights reserved.
Low-carbon hydrogen is being developed globally and cover in all sectors
Current status of hydrogen in the energy transition
China: Made in china 2025 initiative. Transport focus. Currently small-scale demonstrations for commercial vehicles
Australia: Demonstration exports of liquid H2 (from lignite without CCS) expected by 2020.
North America: Retrofit of CCS to SMR at two sites
Fuel cells: Global shipments up from 200MW in 2014 to 650MW in 2017.
Source: IHS Markit
United States: 5,000 FCEV sold since 2015 and 20,000 forklifts
California: Evaluating role of H2 in power and transport. 40 of 60 filling stations nationwide in California
Europe: Pilot projects for FCEV for municipal vehicles and trains
Japan: Aiming to be the first H2-based society. Tokyo Olympics to be used as showcase
South Korea: Demonstration projects for transport and stationary fuel cells for power generation.
UK: Conversion of natural gas grid to H2
UK/France: Blending of H2 with natural gas studies
Japan: Expansion of hydrogen fuelling station network 900 stations by 2030
Dubai: DEWA & Siemens solar driven electrolysis facility.
Middle East: Discussions on production of hydrogen for export of low carbon energy
Europe: Over 80 P2G projects
© 2020 IHS Markit. All rights reserved. Provided “as is”, without any warranty. This map is not to be reproduced or disseminated and is not to be used nor cited as evidence in connection with any territorial claim. IHS Markit is impartial and not an authority on international boundaries which might be subject to unresolved claims by multiple jurisdictions.
Canada: Largest PEM electrolyser (20 MW) to be built
7
Demand Supply
IHS Markit Hydrogen and Renewable Gas Forum
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Momentum is building for hydrogen The size of power-to-gas projects is growing rapidly; 10 MW plant under construction, multiple 20 MW
and 100 MW planned and expected to become the norm.
Source: IHS Markit© 2012 IHS Markit
Electrolysis capacity additions (MWe) and maximum plant size (MWe) (Existing, planned, and plants under construction)
IHS Markit Hydrogen & Renewable Gas Forum
8
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Operating Underconstruction
Planned
Germany Rest of Europe Rest of world
Global power-to-gas projects
Source: IHS Markit Power to Gas Tracker © 2020 IHS Markit
MW
(ele
ctr
ica
lin
pu
t)
72 MW 45 MW 2 GW
Confidential. © 2020 IHS Markit®. All rights reserved.
Seasonal storage
Generation Demand
Align supply and demand
Peak heat High temperature heat
The role of electricity will grow, but gas will remain an important part of a net-
zero carbon economy
• Hydrogen from renewable power can serve multiple roles:rrrrrr
Note: ST = solar thermal; GT = geothermal; HP = heat pump.
Source: IHS Markit © 2020 IHS Markit
Roles for gas in a very low carbon energy system
Peak heatHigh-temperature
heat
Long-duration/
seasonal storage
Low-pressure gas
Electricity
Daily demand variation
Heavy transport
High
uptime
Heavy
Long
distance
Gas Elec
Direct
biomassST
GT
HP
High
Low
9
IHS Markit Hydrogen and Renewable Gas Forum
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Agenda
10
• The role of hydrogen and renewable gas in global energy
• Economics of hydrogen production
• The role of hydrogen in a low-carbon economy
• The IHS Markit Hydrogen and Renewable Gas Forum
IHS Markit Hydrogen and Renewable Gas Forum
Confidential. © 2020 IHS Markit®. All rights reserved.
H2
Hydrogen
There are many routes to low-carbon gas Renewable sources can create low-carbon hydrogen or methane, while fossil fuels with carbon capture and
storage (CCS) are a proven source of low-carbon hydrogen
Renewable hydrogen paths Renewable methane paths
Hydrogen Methane
H2
H2
Biomass Biomass
Sequestration?
Biogas
CO2
H2
Biogas
CH4
Biomass Biomass
CH4
H2
Recycled
CO2
CH4
Syngas Syngas
CO2
Natural gas to H2
Natural gas
CO2
Pyrolysis of methane with
solid carbon sequestration
in research and
development phase; coal
gasification an alternative
for H2 production, but not
economic in Europe
CO2
11
Note: CO2 = carbon dioxide; H2 =
hydrogen; CH4 = methane.
Source: IHS Markit © 2020 IHS Markit
Wet waste biomass Dry woody biomass Renewable electricity Wet waste biomass Dry woody biomass Renewable electricity
Methane
reformingSeparation
Anaerobic
digestionGasification Electrolysis
Anaerobic
digestionGasification Electrolysis
Upgrading
clean-up
Methanation
Methanation
Methane
reforming
IHS Markit Hydrogen and Renewable Gas Forum
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0
1
2
3
4
5
6
No CCS 90% CCS Grid DedicatedOffshore
wind -Germany
DedicatedOnshore
wind -Norway
DedicatedSolar PV -
Spain
Large SMR Hydrogen from electrolysis
Capital and O&M Fuel/feedstock
CO2 emissions CO2 transport and storage
Grid fees
Levelized cost of hydrogen at boundary of production facility (2020)
Source: IHS Markit © 2019 IHS
Co
st
of
hyd
rog
en
(E
uro
s/k
g H
2)
SMR with CCS is the lowest cost method for producing low-carbon hydrogen
in Europe today—less than 50% of electrolytic hydrogen cost
Key assumptions (2020)
PEM electrolyzer capacity (MWe) 10 MWe
PEM electrolyzer capacity in Nm3/h 2,000
Large SMR capacity (Nm3/h) 100,000
Carbon price (€/tonne) 25
Source: IHS Markit 2019 IHS Markit
Fuel
price
/LCOE
€/MWh
Capacity
Factor
(%)
Natural gas price 20 95%
Grid electricity (wholesale) 45 95%
Grid transmission fees 20 -
Offshore wind - Germany 54 47%
Onshore wind - Norway 37 31%
Solar PV - Portugal 32 18%
Curtailed power 0 5%
Note: LCOE = levelized cost of electricity.
Source: IHS Markit 2019 IHS Markit
Cost of hydrogen from
curtailed electricity €12/kg
CO2 emission CO2 transport and storage
IHS Markit Hydrogen and Renewable Gas Forum
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3,2
1,8
2,3
0 10 20 30 40
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16
Euros / MWh
Levelised cost of hydrogen production from steam methane reforming with
CCS (with 90% carbon capture) in Europe, North America and China
Source: IHS Markit
Notes:
© 2019 IHS Markit
Natural gas price ($/MMBtu)
201
8 U
SD
/ K
gH
2
IHS Markit Hydrogen and Renewable Gas Forum
13
The gas price is the key determinant of the cost of hydrogen produced from
natural gas. Lower capital costs in China do not offset the higher fuel price
Key assumptions
SMR plant capacity (Nm3/h) 100,000
SMR plant Capex with CCS in Europe and North
America (2018 million USD)
405
SMR plant Capex with CCS in China (2018 million
USD)
245
Carbon price (USD per metric ton) 40
Plant economic life (years) 25
Weighted average cost of capital WACC (%) 7.5%
Source: IHS Markit © 2019 IHS
Markit
Average Beijing industrial
retail price 2015-2019:
13 $/mmbtuAverage US henry hub gas
price in 2015-2019:
3 $/mmbtu
Average European spot
gas price in 2015-2019:
18 euros/MWh
Confidential. © 2020 IHS Markit®. All rights reserved.
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Offshore wind - Germany
Onshore wind - Norway
Solar PV - Spain
Offshore wind - Germany
Onshore wind - Norway
Solar PV - Spain
Offshore wind - Germany
Onshore wind - Norway
Solar PV - Spain
20
40
2030
2025
Cost range of hydrogen at the boundary of the production facility in Europe
Hydrogen from renewables vs SMR with CCS
Source: IHS Markit
Notes: PEM electrolysers size range: 2-100 MWe. Natural gas price range: €15 - 30 MWh, SMR size: 100,000 Nm3/h
© 2019 IHS Markit
Euros/kg H2
Electrolytic hydrogen costs are expected to fall rapidly
100 MW 2 MW
: input capacity range of installed electrolyzer100 MW 2MW
SMR-CCS-to-H2
Range 1.7 - 2.9 €/kg
(2.3 €/kg average)
100 MW 2 MW
100 MW 2 MW
IHS Markit Hydrogen and Renewable Gas Forum
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With a combination of increased scale and lower renewable cost, electrolytic
hydrogen can compete with hydrogen from fossil fuels
0,0 0,5 1,0 1,5 2,0 2,5 3,0 3,5 4,0 4,5 5,0
100 MW
20 MW
2040 2 MW
100 MW
20 MW
2030 2 MW
100 MW
20 MW
2025 2 MW
2040
2030
2025
Electricity
Electrolyser
Evolution of the cost of hydrogen from offshore wind (Germany)
Source: IHS Markit
Notes: Gas price €15/MWh - €30/MWh, SMR - 100,000 Nm3/h
© 2019 IHS Markit
Ye
ars
an
d e
lec
tro
lyze
r in
let
ca
pa
cit
y
Euros/kg H2
SMR-CCS-to-H2
Range 1.7 - 2.9 €/kg
(2.3 €/kg average)
IHS Markit Hydrogen and Renewable Gas Forum
15
Confidential. © 2020 IHS Markit®. All rights reserved.
449
173
903
209142
178
925
229
89
0
200
400
600
800
1 000
SMR (NoCCS)
SMR(CCS)
Coalgasification(No CCS)
Coalgasification
(CCS)
Biomassgasification(No CSS)
OrganicWaste to
H2
PEM Grid(German
power mix2017)
PEM Grid(French mix
2017)
PEM -Renewable
power
Natural Gas to H2 Coal to H2 Bio-Hydrogen Water Electrolysis
CO2 emission during H2 Transport, delivery and dispensing Direct CO2eq emissions during H2 production
Upstream CO2 emissions Total emissions
Carbon intensity of studied H2 routes (life-cycle)
© 2019 IHS Markit
gC
O2
eq/K
Wh
H2
LH
V
Notes: includes emissions from fugitive methaneSource: IHS Markit, California ARB, A. Moro et al (Electricity carbon intensity in European Member States - 2018)
“Not all H2 is created equal”Currently the least-emitting H2 production pathways are the most costly
• Dedicated renewable power for
electrolysis leads to the least–
carbon-intensive H2, but …
• … it is currently the most costly
pathway to H2.
• With some current power mixes
(e.g. Germany), electrolysis using
the grid is more carbon intensive
than SMR, at same level as coal
to H2.
• With CCS, coal gasification to H2
becomes a reasonable route from
an environmental standpoint.
Natural gas
Carbon intensity
~290
16
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Provision of large-scale supply likely more cost effective when centralizedThe limited economies of scale for small on-site electrolyzers and higher grid tariff penalize the on-site
model. Electricity tariff is key to make on-site hydrogen supply competitive (below 60-65 euros/MWh)
A 2 MWe onsite electrolyser can be more economical than a centralized renewable electrolysis at a grid power
tariff lower than €65/MWh
Remote or onsite hydrogen for Europe refueling stations in 2025 – Germany (excluding refueling station cost)
Remote
centralizedOnsite
distributed
0
2
4
6
8
Remote SMR-CCS-to-H2
Remote large scaleOffshore wind plant
(100 MWe electrolysismodules)
1 MWe electrolyzeronsite - grid powersupply - 470 kg/day
station
2 MWe electrolyzeronsite - grid powersupply - 940 kg/day
station
5 MWe electrolyzeronsite - grid power
supply - 2350 kg/daystation
10 MWe electrolyzeronsite - grid power
supply - 4700 kg/daystation
Remote centralized H2 production Onsite distributed H2 production
H2 storage, transmission and distribution
Electricity cost for H2 production
H2 production (excl. Electricity cost)
Source: IHS Markit
Notes: Remote offshore wind LCOE: 47 Euros/MWh (capacity factor 51%). Grid electricity is used for onsite electrolysis at an industrial tariff of 90 € /MWh (assumes a Eurostat IE band for industrial power prices –
20,000 – 70,000 TWh/year). Liquid hydrogen storage, transmission and distribution assumed for remote production over 300 Km supplying 1,000 tonnes of hydrogen per day. ** A petrol station in France serves in
average 3500 cars (39 millions cars in France in 2016 for 11,000 gas stations). If those cars were FCEV (requiring 150 kg of H2 per year), the equivalent capacity in hydrogen would be around 1500 kg H2 per day.
© 2019 IHS Markit
Eu
ros
/Kg
de
live
red
to
refu
eli
ng
sta
tio
n
H2
H2
H2
H2
An average petrol station serves the
equivalent of 1,500 Kg/day of hydrogen **
H2 H2
4.7
3.3
6.7
5.5
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Operation of a grid connected electrolyser is an optimization problem: Maximise utilisation to minimise unit capex versus minimise utilisation to minimise electricity price
IHS Markit Hydrogen and Renewable Gas Forum
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Falling electroyser costs allow for lower levels
of economic utilisation. Tipping point moves
from over 40% to close to 20%
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
2025
2030
2040
Levelised cost of electricity - China average (Yuan/MWh0)
US
D /
kg
Source: IHS Markit © 2019 IHS Markit
Levelised cost of electricity - China average (Yuan/MWh0) Levelised cost of electricity - China average (Yuan/MWh0) Levelised cost of electricity - China average (Yuan/MWh0) Non-electricity cost component variation with
utilization rate of 100 MW electrolyser
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
2025
2030
2040
Levelised cost of electricity - China average (Yuan/MWh0)
US
D/ M
Wh
Source: IHS Markit © 2019 IHS Markit
Levelised cost of electricity - China average (Yuan/MWh0) Levelised cost of electricity - China average (Yuan/MWh0) Levelised cost of electricity - China average (Yuan/MWh0) Price duration curve (case of Netherlands)
IHS Markit EPA 2019
Increasing levels of renewables will change the
shape of the price-duration curve. Frequency of
low prices increases as mid-range falls
XX
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The optimal electrolyser utilization increases as capex falls and penetration of
renewables on the grid increases. Can be lower cost than dedicated supply
IHS Markit Hydrogen and Renewable Gas Forum
19
Risk of cannibalization if electrolyser additions exceed availability of low cost supply.
Raises questions on cost allocation if renewables subject to support
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
2025
2030
2040
2050
Levelised cost of electricity - China average (Yuan/MWh0)
US
D /
kg
Source: IHS Markit © 2019 IHS Markit
Levelised cost of electricity - China average (Yuan/MWh0) Levelised cost of electricity - China average (Yuan/MWh0) Levelised cost of electricity - China average (Yuan/MWh0) Cost of hydrogen production from grid electricity
Netherlands – 100MW electrolyser / €20/MWh grid fee
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
2025 2030 2040 2050
100 MW PEM Hydrogen - Optimized grid power supply
100 MW PEM Hydrogen - Dedicated offshore wind power supply
Levelised cost of electricity - China average (Yuan/MWh0)
US
D /
kg
Source: IHS Markit © 2019 IHS Markit
Levelised cost of electricity - China average (Yuan/MWh0) Levelised cost of electricity - China average (Yuan/MWh0) Levelised cost of electricity - China average (Yuan/MWh0) Comparison of grid supply and dedicated offshore
wind supply for electrolysis in the Netherlands
Note: grid supply subject to a grid fee of €20/MWh
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Agenda
20
• The role of hydrogen and renewable gas in global energy
• Economics of hydrogen production
• The role of hydrogen in a low-carbon economy
• The IHS Markit Hydrogen and Renewable Gas Forum
IHS Markit Hydrogen and Renewable Gas Forum
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Hydrogen as part of the future energy mixIHS Markit have developed outlooks through 2050 that are consistent with regional climate targets
IHS Markit Hydrogen and Renewable Gas Forum
21
• The long-term demand outlooks build upon the Autonomy scenario—but consider the potential for
hydrogen use in all sectors of the economy to meet long-term climate targets
• California—Executive order seeking carbon neutrality by 2045
• China—65% CO2 reduction vs 2015 levels (consistent with “Beautiful China” ambition)
• Europe—net-zero carbon by 2050
• The supply mix is built-up considering the sector of demand, the pace of demand growth and the
outlook for hydrogen production costs
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Key messages from hydrogen demand and supply analysis
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22
1. Share of hydrogen in the energy mix is dependent on the degree of climate ambition. Where
deep decarbonisation is sought the share of hydrogen expected to be > natural gas today
2. Inclusion of aviation in climate targets hugely increases the role for hydrogen as a feedstock
for synthetic jet—but at a significant cost
3. By mid-century, similar volumes of hydrogen are expected to be produced from fossil sources
and electricity. Focusing on only one source is likely to slow deployment of hydrogen
4. Electricity as a feedstock for hydrogen production could to dominate electricity demand—in
2050 in the high case for hydrogen in Europe over 50% of electricity demand is used for H2
5. In Europe and the US, deployment of hydrogen provides long-term security of demand for
natural gas (as a feedstock for methane reforming).
6. In China, deployment of H2 could significantly reduce natural gas imports from the early-
2030s onwards. Domestic H2 from coal (with CCS), wind and solar displaces imported gas
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Share of hydrogen in final energy demand in the IHS Markit outlooks - 2050
The share of hydrogen in final energy demand increases rapidly as climate
ambition increases—inclusion of aviation a key driver of increase
23
Source: IHS Markit © 2020 IHS Markit
Sh
are
of
hyd
rog
en
Climate ambition (GHG Reduction)
0%
40%
20%
60% 70% 80% 90%
0%
10%
H2
Green
Europe
93% emission reduction (excluding aviation and shipping)
28%
NZC
NZC
Elimination of fossil fuel combustion (including
from international aviation and shipping)
14%
32%
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Autonomy
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Hydrogen can be used in all sectors of the economy
IHS Markit Hydrogen and Renewable Gas Forum
24
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
California China Europe
Residential & Commercial Industry Power & Heat generation Road transport Other transport Other Refinery and feedstock
2050 hydrogen demand by sector across all three studies
© 2020 IHS Markit
Sh
are
of
H2
de
ma
nd
Source: IHS Markit
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Trajectory for total cost of ownership for FCEV vs BEV Municipal operators could play major role to drive initial cost reductions
25
Driver of cost reduction by sector
Source: IHS Markit © 2020 IHS Markit
Reducing fuel prices important driver of competitiveness once initial price premium removed; benefits of
hydrogen greatest for large fleets
Premium of H2 vehicles over battery vehicles (FCEV-BEV)/BEV Batteries lower
cost than H2
H2 lower cost
than batteries
HDV
2020
2020
Equipment cost
declines and
higher utilization
Fuel efficiency,
uptime, fleet
economics, range,
and payload
Drivers improving competitiveness of H2
100% -100%50% -50%0%
2020
2030
2030
2030
2050
2050
2050
IHS Markit Hydrogen and Renewable Gas Forum
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In the short-term, H2 from fossil fuels are expected to dominate supply, but by mid-century electrolysis linked to dedicated renewables will be the largest source of supply
IHS Markit Hydrogen and Renewable Gas Forum
26
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2030 2040 2050 2030 2040 2050 2030 2040 2050
California China EuropeSteam methane reforming Coal gasification Oil Electrolysis
Hydrogen supply by technology and fuel
© 2020 IHS Markit
Sh
are
of
hyd
rog
en
syp
pp
ly
Notes: Hashed areas represent use of CCS.
Source: IHS Markit
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In the long-term, use of electricity as a feedstock for hydrogen supply
could be the largest use of electricity in the economy
0
1 000
2 000
3 000
4 000
5 000
6 000
7 000
8 000
9 000
2018 2030 2040 2050 2050 -NZCGas
H2 supply
Energy sector use
T&D losses
Transport
Industry
Commercial
Residential
Power demand by sector: NZC HP
Source: IHS Markit © 2019 IHS Markit
TW
h
0
500
1 000
1 500
2 000
2 500
3 000
3 500
4 000
2018 2030 2040 2050 2050 -NZCGas
Solar PV - for H2
Wind off - for H2
Wind on - for H2
Electricity storage
Other RES
Solar PV
Wind off
Wind on
Hydro incl. PSP
Thermal
Nuclear
Installed capacity by technology: NZC HP
Source: IHS Markit © 2019 IHS Markit
GW
NZC
Drivers of lower power demand
• Higher end-use efficiency
• Greater share of heat
• Direct use of renewables
IHS Markit Hydrogen and Renewable Gas Forum
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Agenda
28
• The role of hydrogen and renewable gas in global energy
• Economics of hydrogen production
• The role of hydrogen in a low-carbon economy
• The IHS Markit Hydrogen and Renewable Gas Forum
IHS Markit Hydrogen and Renewable Gas Forum
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IHS Markit Hydrogen and Renewable Gas Initiatives
29
Hydrogen and Renewable Gas Forum 2020Global Coverage
Hydrogen in the Golden State European Hydrogen ForumHydrogen as the Enabler: Meeting
China’s Energy Challenge?
IHS Markit regional hydrogen studies in 2018/2019 developed with 60+ partner companies
IHS Markit Hydrogen and Renewable Gas Forum
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IHS Markit Hydrogen and Renewable Gas Forum
Research pillars
Deliverables of the Hydrogen and Renewable Gas Forum
Market Fundamentals Data and analytics Community
Economic analysis of the
value chain
Long-term outlooks for low-
carbon gas demand and
supply
Source: IHS Markit © 2020 IHS Markit
Power-to-X project tracker4 workshops per year
1 in US, 2 in Europe, 1 in APAC
Hydrogen & renewable gas
industry site visits
Regular webinars
30
Levelized cost of hydrogen
production model
Interactive models for the full
value chain
Full energy balance outlook
for major markets
IHS Markit Hydrogen and Renewable Gas Forum
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What is the Hydrogen and Renewable Gas Forum?
Production / Transportation & Storage / End-use sectors
31
Hydrogen Biomethane Synthetic methane Ammonia Methanol
Reforming
(with and without CCS)
Europe Europe Europe
US US US
China China China
Asia importing countries Asia importing countries Asia importing countries
Exporting countries Exporting countries Exporting countries
Gasification
(with and without CCS)
Europe Europe Europe Europe Europe
US US US US US
China
Australia Australia Australia
Methane Pyrolysis Europe
US
China
Electroysis -- AEC Europe Europe Europe Europe
US US US US
Asia Asia Asia
Electroysis -- PEM Europe Europe Europe Europe
US US US US
China China China
Asia importing countries Asia importing countries Asia importing countries
Exporting countries Exporting countries Exporting countries
Electroysis -- SOEC Europe Europe Europe Europe
US US US US
Asia Asia Asia
Completed First half 2020 Second half 2020 China completed, Korea/Japan to be completed Second half 2020 Not applicable
Asian importing countries: Korea and Japan | Exporting countries: Australia, Middle East and North Africa
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What is the Hydrogen and Renewable Gas Forum?
Production / Transportation&Storage / End-use sectors
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Hydrogen Biomethane Synthetic methane Ammonia Methanol LOHC
Tube trailer Europe
US
Asia
Liquid trailer Europe Injected into gas grid - costs and
treatment as natural gas
Europe Europe Europe
US US US US
Asia Asia Asia Asia
Pipeline Europe
US
Asia
Liquid ship Europe Europe Europe Europe
US US US US
Asia Asia Asia Asia
STORAGE
Compressed tanks Europe Europe Europe Europe
US US US US
Asia Asia Asia Asia
Liquid tanks Europe Europe Europe Europe
US US US US
Asia Asia Asia Asia
Salt cavern Europe
US
Asia
Depleted oil and gas field Europe
US
Asia
Completed First half 2020 Second half 2020 China completed, Korea/Japan to be completed Second half 2020 Not applicable
Asian importing countries: Korea and Japan | Exporting countries: Australia, Middle East and North Africa
Confidential. © 2020 IHS Markit®. All rights reserved.
What is the Hydrogen and Renewable Gas Forum?
Production / Transportation&Storage / End-use sectors
33
Low carbon fuels Current dominant fuel (baseline) and other
alternatives
Hydrogen Biomethane Synthetic methane Ammonia Methanol Synthetic jet fuel Diesel/gasoline/jet fuel Battery electric
END USE -- TRANSPORT
Light duty Europe Europe Europe Europe
US US US US
Asia Asia Asia
Medium duty Europe Europe Europe Europe
US US US US
Asia Asia Asia
Heavy duty Europe Europe Europe Europe
US US US US
Asia Asia Asia
Buses Europe Europe Europe Europe
US US US US
Asia Asia Asia
Shipping Europe Europe Europe Europe Europe Europe Europe
US US US US US
Asia Asia Asia Asia Asia
Aviation Europe Europe
US US
Asia Asia
END USE - INDUSTRY Coal Natural gas
Iron and steel Europe Europe Europe
US US US
Asia Asia Asia
END USE - RESIDENTIAL AND COMMERICAL Heat pumps Direct electricity
Space heating Europe Europe Europe Europe
US US US US
Water heating Europe Europe Europe Europe
US US US US
Completed First half 2020 Second half 2020 China completed, Korea/Japan to be completed Second half 2020 Not applicable
Asian importing countries: Korea and Japan | Exporting countries: Australia, Middle East and North Africa
Confidential. © 2020 IHS Markit®. All rights reserved.
Deep dive on interaction between carbon capture and storage and
low carbon gases
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Confidential. © 2020 IHS Markit®. All rights reserved.
Interaction between CCUS and low-carbon gases
Scope of coverage in Hydrogen and Renewable Gas Forum
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Coal
Gas
Oil
Biomass
Power generation
Hydrogen production
CO2 capture
CO2 storage
Enhanced oil recovery
Direct air capture
Biological processes
Covered in the GPE CCUS research program
Excluded from the GPE CCUS research program
Input fuels
consideredAreas of focus
Legend
Industry CO2
transportation
Confidential. © 2020 IHS Markit®. All rights reserved.
Interaction between CCUS and low-carbon gases: Three main areas of
research
Areas of research:
1. Current feasibility and status of carbon capture and storage
2. Current feasibility and status of negative emission technologies: BECCS* / DAC*
3. Economics of fuels produced with captured CO2 vs alternative low-carbon options
*BECCS—Bioenergy with carbon capture and storage
*DAC—Direct air capture
Confidential. © 2020 IHS Markit®. All rights reserved.
Interaction between CCUS and low-carbon gases1. Current feasibility and status of carbon capture and storage
37
• Research
• High-level overview of policy measures to support the development of CCS?
• What is the cost of carbon capture and storage? Detailed costing for the various options
• How does the level of CO2 capture vary depending on capture process and source of CO2?
• What are the options for CO2 storage?
• Data and analytics
• Database of carbon capture and storage projects globally
• Indicative cost comparison for carbon capture, CO2 transportation and CO2 storage
Confidential. © 2020 IHS Markit®. All rights reserved.
Interaction between CCUS and low-carbon gases 2. Current feasibility and status of negative emission technologies
38
• Research
• High-level overview of policy measures to support the development of negative emission technologies?
• What is the status of the BECCS and DAC?
• What is the cost of BECCS and DAC?
• Data and analytics
• Database of BECCS and DAC projects
• Details of assumptions used for economic analysis—capex, opex, etc
• Current and projected cost comparison for BECCS and DAC
Confidential. © 2020 IHS Markit®. All rights reserved.
Interaction between CCUS and low-carbon gases 3. Economics of fuels produced with captured CO2 vs alternative low-carbon options
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• Research: End-use cost comparison
• Cost of synthetic methane vs hydrogen vs direct electricity
• Cost of synthetic methane vs ammonia and methanol
• Cost of synthetic jet vs ammonia
• Cost or pre-vs-post combustion carbon capture—i.e. Use of hydrogen produced from natural gas with carbon capture
and storage vs use of natural gas with carbon capture and storage on flue gases
• Data and analytics
• PowerBI dashboard with cost comparisons
Confidential. © 2020 IHS Markit®. All rights reserved.
IHS Markit Hydrogen and Renewable Gas Team
• Simon Blakey – [email protected]
• Ronan Bernard – [email protected]
• Sylvain Cognet-Dauphin – [email protected]
• Mark Griffith – [email protected]
• Alex Klaessig – [email protected]
• Patrick Luckow – [email protected]
• Xiao Lu – [email protected]
• Deborah Mann – [email protected]
• Cristian Muresan – [email protected]
• Saad Raad – [email protected]
• Frederick Ritter – [email protected]
• Catherine Robinson – [email protected]
• Wade Shafer – [email protected]
• Shankari Srinivasan – [email protected]
• Soufien Taamallah – [email protected]
• Jenny Yang – [email protected]
• Dongjie Zhang – [email protected]
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IHS Markit Hydrogen and Renewable Gas Forum
IHS Markit Customer Care
Americas: +1 800 IHS CARE (+1 800 447 2273)
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