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Confidential. © 2020 IHS Markit ® . All rights reserved. Presentation Hydrogen and Renewable Gas Forum An introduction to IHS Markit research to date and the ongoing workplan 2020 Hydrogen and Renewable Gas Forum

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Page 1: Presentation Hydrogen and Renewable Gas Forum

Confidential. © 2020 IHS Markit®. All rights reserved.

Presentation

Hydrogen and Renewable Gas ForumAn introduction to IHS Markit research to date and the ongoing workplan

2020

Hydrogen and Renewable Gas Forum

Page 2: Presentation Hydrogen and Renewable Gas Forum

Confidential. © 2020 IHS Markit®. All rights reserved.

The IHS Markit Hydrogen and Renewable Gas Forum

• Decarbonisation of gas is becoming a key topic for the industry as governments commit to

increasingly ambitious climate targets

• Over the past 2 years IHS Markit has undertaken a series of multiclient studies analysing the

economics of hydrogen and renewable gas and the role it could play in the future

• This work has been brought together in the IHS Markit Hydrogen and Renewable Gas Forum

• The Forum will build on an existing research base—widening the geographic scope, increasing

the depth of the analysis and providing a review of recent developments

2

IHS Markit Hydrogen and Renewable Gas Forum

Page 3: Presentation Hydrogen and Renewable Gas Forum

Confidential. © 2020 IHS Markit®. All rights reserved. 3

(methanation)

Synthetic CH4

+CO2 /CO

LNG

Compressed H2 tube trailers

ororor H2 LH 2

Local water

electrolysis

End use

H2 + O2

H2O

Ammonia / Methanol / LOHC*Conversion

CNGH2

HVDC

e-

Steam reforming

Gasification

Water

electrolysis

H2 + O2

H2O

H2

© 2019 IHS Markit/1736808Source: IHS Markit * Liquid organic hydrogen carriers

IHS Markit Hydrogen supply chain techno-economic analysis

H2

H2

H2 + ½ O2

/

Re-Conversion

LH2

Liquid H2 trucks

or

or direct use

H2 + ½ O2

H2 pipeline

Transmission, distribution and storage End-useProduction

A comprehensive assessment of the low-carbon hydrogen supply chain

IHS Markit Hydrogen and Renewable Gas Forum

Page 4: Presentation Hydrogen and Renewable Gas Forum

Confidential. © 2020 IHS Markit®. All rights reserved.

Agenda

4

• The role of hydrogen and renewable gas in global energy

• Economics of hydrogen production

• The role of hydrogen in a low-carbon economy

• The IHS Markit Hydrogen and Renewable Gas Forum

IHS Markit Hydrogen and Renewable Gas Forum

Page 5: Presentation Hydrogen and Renewable Gas Forum

Confidential. © 2020 IHS Markit®. All rights reserved.

Agenda

5

• The role of hydrogen and renewable gas in global energy

• Economics of hydrogen production

• The role of hydrogen in a low-carbon economy

• The IHS Markit Hydrogen and Renewable Gas Forum

IHS Markit Hydrogen and Renewable Gas Forum

Page 6: Presentation Hydrogen and Renewable Gas Forum

Confidential. © 2020 IHS Markit®. All rights reserved.

• Hydrogen from renewable power can serve multiple roles:

Why hydrogen today? In recent years multiple factors have come together to drive interest in hydrogen

IHS Markit Hydrogen and Renewable Gas Forum

Source: IHS Markit © 2020 IHS Markit

Drivers of increasing interest in hydrogen

6

Environmental policy

Energy independence

Technology development

Versatility

H2

Reduce CO2

emissions

Improve

air quality

Reduce fossil

fuel imports

Falling costs

of renewables

CCS

developments

Applications in all

end use sectors

Technology exports

H2+½O2

H2OInternational sales of

electrolysers & FCEV

Page 7: Presentation Hydrogen and Renewable Gas Forum

Confidential. © 2020 IHS Markit®. All rights reserved.

Low-carbon hydrogen is being developed globally and cover in all sectors

Current status of hydrogen in the energy transition

China: Made in china 2025 initiative. Transport focus. Currently small-scale demonstrations for commercial vehicles

Australia: Demonstration exports of liquid H2 (from lignite without CCS) expected by 2020.

North America: Retrofit of CCS to SMR at two sites

Fuel cells: Global shipments up from 200MW in 2014 to 650MW in 2017.

Source: IHS Markit

United States: 5,000 FCEV sold since 2015 and 20,000 forklifts

California: Evaluating role of H2 in power and transport. 40 of 60 filling stations nationwide in California

Europe: Pilot projects for FCEV for municipal vehicles and trains

Japan: Aiming to be the first H2-based society. Tokyo Olympics to be used as showcase

South Korea: Demonstration projects for transport and stationary fuel cells for power generation.

UK: Conversion of natural gas grid to H2

UK/France: Blending of H2 with natural gas studies

Japan: Expansion of hydrogen fuelling station network 900 stations by 2030

Dubai: DEWA & Siemens solar driven electrolysis facility.

Middle East: Discussions on production of hydrogen for export of low carbon energy

Europe: Over 80 P2G projects

© 2020 IHS Markit. All rights reserved. Provided “as is”, without any warranty. This map is not to be reproduced or disseminated and is not to be used nor cited as evidence in connection with any territorial claim. IHS Markit is impartial and not an authority on international boundaries which might be subject to unresolved claims by multiple jurisdictions.

Canada: Largest PEM electrolyser (20 MW) to be built

7

Demand Supply

IHS Markit Hydrogen and Renewable Gas Forum

Page 8: Presentation Hydrogen and Renewable Gas Forum

Confidential. © 2020 IHS Markit®. All rights reserved.

Momentum is building for hydrogen The size of power-to-gas projects is growing rapidly; 10 MW plant under construction, multiple 20 MW

and 100 MW planned and expected to become the norm.

Source: IHS Markit© 2012 IHS Markit

Electrolysis capacity additions (MWe) and maximum plant size (MWe) (Existing, planned, and plants under construction)

IHS Markit Hydrogen & Renewable Gas Forum

8

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Operating Underconstruction

Planned

Germany Rest of Europe Rest of world

Global power-to-gas projects

Source: IHS Markit Power to Gas Tracker © 2020 IHS Markit

MW

(ele

ctr

ica

lin

pu

t)

72 MW 45 MW 2 GW

Page 9: Presentation Hydrogen and Renewable Gas Forum

Confidential. © 2020 IHS Markit®. All rights reserved.

Seasonal storage

Generation Demand

Align supply and demand

Peak heat High temperature heat

The role of electricity will grow, but gas will remain an important part of a net-

zero carbon economy

• Hydrogen from renewable power can serve multiple roles:rrrrrr

Note: ST = solar thermal; GT = geothermal; HP = heat pump.

Source: IHS Markit © 2020 IHS Markit

Roles for gas in a very low carbon energy system

Peak heatHigh-temperature

heat

Long-duration/

seasonal storage

Low-pressure gas

Electricity

Daily demand variation

Heavy transport

High

uptime

Heavy

Long

distance

Gas Elec

Direct

biomassST

GT

HP

High

Low

9

IHS Markit Hydrogen and Renewable Gas Forum

Page 10: Presentation Hydrogen and Renewable Gas Forum

Confidential. © 2020 IHS Markit®. All rights reserved.

Agenda

10

• The role of hydrogen and renewable gas in global energy

• Economics of hydrogen production

• The role of hydrogen in a low-carbon economy

• The IHS Markit Hydrogen and Renewable Gas Forum

IHS Markit Hydrogen and Renewable Gas Forum

Page 11: Presentation Hydrogen and Renewable Gas Forum

Confidential. © 2020 IHS Markit®. All rights reserved.

H2

Hydrogen

There are many routes to low-carbon gas Renewable sources can create low-carbon hydrogen or methane, while fossil fuels with carbon capture and

storage (CCS) are a proven source of low-carbon hydrogen

Renewable hydrogen paths Renewable methane paths

Hydrogen Methane

H2

H2

Biomass Biomass

Sequestration?

Biogas

CO2

H2

Biogas

CH4

Biomass Biomass

CH4

H2

Recycled

CO2

CH4

Syngas Syngas

CO2

Natural gas to H2

Natural gas

CO2

Pyrolysis of methane with

solid carbon sequestration

in research and

development phase; coal

gasification an alternative

for H2 production, but not

economic in Europe

CO2

11

Note: CO2 = carbon dioxide; H2 =

hydrogen; CH4 = methane.

Source: IHS Markit © 2020 IHS Markit

Wet waste biomass Dry woody biomass Renewable electricity Wet waste biomass Dry woody biomass Renewable electricity

Methane

reformingSeparation

Anaerobic

digestionGasification Electrolysis

Anaerobic

digestionGasification Electrolysis

Upgrading

clean-up

Methanation

Methanation

Methane

reforming

IHS Markit Hydrogen and Renewable Gas Forum

Page 12: Presentation Hydrogen and Renewable Gas Forum

Confidential. © 2020 IHS Markit®. All rights reserved.

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

No CCS 90% CCS Grid DedicatedOffshore

wind -Germany

DedicatedOnshore

wind -Norway

DedicatedSolar PV -

Spain

Large SMR Hydrogen from electrolysis

Capital and O&M Fuel/feedstock

CO2 emissions CO2 transport and storage

Grid fees

Levelized cost of hydrogen at boundary of production facility (2020)

Source: IHS Markit © 2019 IHS

Co

st

of

hyd

rog

en

(E

uro

s/k

g H

2)

SMR with CCS is the lowest cost method for producing low-carbon hydrogen

in Europe today—less than 50% of electrolytic hydrogen cost

Key assumptions (2020)

PEM electrolyzer capacity (MWe) 10 MWe

PEM electrolyzer capacity in Nm3/h 2,000

Large SMR capacity (Nm3/h) 100,000

Carbon price (€/tonne) 25

Source: IHS Markit 2019 IHS Markit

Fuel

price

/LCOE

€/MWh

Capacity

Factor

(%)

Natural gas price 20 95%

Grid electricity (wholesale) 45 95%

Grid transmission fees 20 -

Offshore wind - Germany 54 47%

Onshore wind - Norway 37 31%

Solar PV - Portugal 32 18%

Curtailed power 0 5%

Note: LCOE = levelized cost of electricity.

Source: IHS Markit 2019 IHS Markit

Cost of hydrogen from

curtailed electricity €12/kg

CO2 emission CO2 transport and storage

IHS Markit Hydrogen and Renewable Gas Forum

12

Page 13: Presentation Hydrogen and Renewable Gas Forum

Confidential. © 2020 IHS Markit®. All rights reserved.

3,2

1,8

2,3

0 10 20 30 40

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16

Euros / MWh

Levelised cost of hydrogen production from steam methane reforming with

CCS (with 90% carbon capture) in Europe, North America and China

Source: IHS Markit

Notes:

© 2019 IHS Markit

Natural gas price ($/MMBtu)

201

8 U

SD

/ K

gH

2

IHS Markit Hydrogen and Renewable Gas Forum

13

The gas price is the key determinant of the cost of hydrogen produced from

natural gas. Lower capital costs in China do not offset the higher fuel price

Key assumptions

SMR plant capacity (Nm3/h) 100,000

SMR plant Capex with CCS in Europe and North

America (2018 million USD)

405

SMR plant Capex with CCS in China (2018 million

USD)

245

Carbon price (USD per metric ton) 40

Plant economic life (years) 25

Weighted average cost of capital WACC (%) 7.5%

Source: IHS Markit © 2019 IHS

Markit

Average Beijing industrial

retail price 2015-2019:

13 $/mmbtuAverage US henry hub gas

price in 2015-2019:

3 $/mmbtu

Average European spot

gas price in 2015-2019:

18 euros/MWh

Page 14: Presentation Hydrogen and Renewable Gas Forum

Confidential. © 2020 IHS Markit®. All rights reserved.

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

Offshore wind - Germany

Onshore wind - Norway

Solar PV - Spain

Offshore wind - Germany

Onshore wind - Norway

Solar PV - Spain

Offshore wind - Germany

Onshore wind - Norway

Solar PV - Spain

20

40

2030

2025

Cost range of hydrogen at the boundary of the production facility in Europe

Hydrogen from renewables vs SMR with CCS

Source: IHS Markit

Notes: PEM electrolysers size range: 2-100 MWe. Natural gas price range: €15 - 30 MWh, SMR size: 100,000 Nm3/h

© 2019 IHS Markit

Euros/kg H2

Electrolytic hydrogen costs are expected to fall rapidly

100 MW 2 MW

: input capacity range of installed electrolyzer100 MW 2MW

SMR-CCS-to-H2

Range 1.7 - 2.9 €/kg

(2.3 €/kg average)

100 MW 2 MW

100 MW 2 MW

IHS Markit Hydrogen and Renewable Gas Forum

14

Page 15: Presentation Hydrogen and Renewable Gas Forum

Confidential. © 2020 IHS Markit®. All rights reserved.

With a combination of increased scale and lower renewable cost, electrolytic

hydrogen can compete with hydrogen from fossil fuels

0,0 0,5 1,0 1,5 2,0 2,5 3,0 3,5 4,0 4,5 5,0

100 MW

20 MW

2040 2 MW

100 MW

20 MW

2030 2 MW

100 MW

20 MW

2025 2 MW

2040

2030

2025

Electricity

Electrolyser

Evolution of the cost of hydrogen from offshore wind (Germany)

Source: IHS Markit

Notes: Gas price €15/MWh - €30/MWh, SMR - 100,000 Nm3/h

© 2019 IHS Markit

Ye

ars

an

d e

lec

tro

lyze

r in

let

ca

pa

cit

y

Euros/kg H2

SMR-CCS-to-H2

Range 1.7 - 2.9 €/kg

(2.3 €/kg average)

IHS Markit Hydrogen and Renewable Gas Forum

15

Page 16: Presentation Hydrogen and Renewable Gas Forum

Confidential. © 2020 IHS Markit®. All rights reserved.

449

173

903

209142

178

925

229

89

0

200

400

600

800

1 000

SMR (NoCCS)

SMR(CCS)

Coalgasification(No CCS)

Coalgasification

(CCS)

Biomassgasification(No CSS)

OrganicWaste to

H2

PEM Grid(German

power mix2017)

PEM Grid(French mix

2017)

PEM -Renewable

power

Natural Gas to H2 Coal to H2 Bio-Hydrogen Water Electrolysis

CO2 emission during H2 Transport, delivery and dispensing Direct CO2eq emissions during H2 production

Upstream CO2 emissions Total emissions

Carbon intensity of studied H2 routes (life-cycle)

© 2019 IHS Markit

gC

O2

eq/K

Wh

H2

LH

V

Notes: includes emissions from fugitive methaneSource: IHS Markit, California ARB, A. Moro et al (Electricity carbon intensity in European Member States - 2018)

“Not all H2 is created equal”Currently the least-emitting H2 production pathways are the most costly

• Dedicated renewable power for

electrolysis leads to the least–

carbon-intensive H2, but …

• … it is currently the most costly

pathway to H2.

• With some current power mixes

(e.g. Germany), electrolysis using

the grid is more carbon intensive

than SMR, at same level as coal

to H2.

• With CCS, coal gasification to H2

becomes a reasonable route from

an environmental standpoint.

Natural gas

Carbon intensity

~290

16

IHS Markit Hydrogen and Renewable Gas Forum

Page 17: Presentation Hydrogen and Renewable Gas Forum

Confidential. © 2020 IHS Markit®. All rights reserved.

Provision of large-scale supply likely more cost effective when centralizedThe limited economies of scale for small on-site electrolyzers and higher grid tariff penalize the on-site

model. Electricity tariff is key to make on-site hydrogen supply competitive (below 60-65 euros/MWh)

A 2 MWe onsite electrolyser can be more economical than a centralized renewable electrolysis at a grid power

tariff lower than €65/MWh

Remote or onsite hydrogen for Europe refueling stations in 2025 – Germany (excluding refueling station cost)

Remote

centralizedOnsite

distributed

0

2

4

6

8

Remote SMR-CCS-to-H2

Remote large scaleOffshore wind plant

(100 MWe electrolysismodules)

1 MWe electrolyzeronsite - grid powersupply - 470 kg/day

station

2 MWe electrolyzeronsite - grid powersupply - 940 kg/day

station

5 MWe electrolyzeronsite - grid power

supply - 2350 kg/daystation

10 MWe electrolyzeronsite - grid power

supply - 4700 kg/daystation

Remote centralized H2 production Onsite distributed H2 production

H2 storage, transmission and distribution

Electricity cost for H2 production

H2 production (excl. Electricity cost)

Source: IHS Markit

Notes: Remote offshore wind LCOE: 47 Euros/MWh (capacity factor 51%). Grid electricity is used for onsite electrolysis at an industrial tariff of 90 € /MWh (assumes a Eurostat IE band for industrial power prices –

20,000 – 70,000 TWh/year). Liquid hydrogen storage, transmission and distribution assumed for remote production over 300 Km supplying 1,000 tonnes of hydrogen per day. ** A petrol station in France serves in

average 3500 cars (39 millions cars in France in 2016 for 11,000 gas stations). If those cars were FCEV (requiring 150 kg of H2 per year), the equivalent capacity in hydrogen would be around 1500 kg H2 per day.

© 2019 IHS Markit

Eu

ros

/Kg

de

live

red

to

refu

eli

ng

sta

tio

n

H2

H2

H2

H2

An average petrol station serves the

equivalent of 1,500 Kg/day of hydrogen **

H2 H2

4.7

3.3

6.7

5.5

IHS Markit Hydrogen and Renewable Gas Forum

17

Page 18: Presentation Hydrogen and Renewable Gas Forum

Confidential. © 2020 IHS Markit®. All rights reserved.

Operation of a grid connected electrolyser is an optimization problem: Maximise utilisation to minimise unit capex versus minimise utilisation to minimise electricity price

IHS Markit Hydrogen and Renewable Gas Forum

18

Falling electroyser costs allow for lower levels

of economic utilisation. Tipping point moves

from over 40% to close to 20%

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

2025

2030

2040

Levelised cost of electricity - China average (Yuan/MWh0)

US

D /

kg

Source: IHS Markit © 2019 IHS Markit

Levelised cost of electricity - China average (Yuan/MWh0) Levelised cost of electricity - China average (Yuan/MWh0) Levelised cost of electricity - China average (Yuan/MWh0) Non-electricity cost component variation with

utilization rate of 100 MW electrolyser

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

2025

2030

2040

Levelised cost of electricity - China average (Yuan/MWh0)

US

D/ M

Wh

Source: IHS Markit © 2019 IHS Markit

Levelised cost of electricity - China average (Yuan/MWh0) Levelised cost of electricity - China average (Yuan/MWh0) Levelised cost of electricity - China average (Yuan/MWh0) Price duration curve (case of Netherlands)

IHS Markit EPA 2019

Increasing levels of renewables will change the

shape of the price-duration curve. Frequency of

low prices increases as mid-range falls

XX

Page 19: Presentation Hydrogen and Renewable Gas Forum

Confidential. © 2020 IHS Markit®. All rights reserved.

The optimal electrolyser utilization increases as capex falls and penetration of

renewables on the grid increases. Can be lower cost than dedicated supply

IHS Markit Hydrogen and Renewable Gas Forum

19

Risk of cannibalization if electrolyser additions exceed availability of low cost supply.

Raises questions on cost allocation if renewables subject to support

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

2025

2030

2040

2050

Levelised cost of electricity - China average (Yuan/MWh0)

US

D /

kg

Source: IHS Markit © 2019 IHS Markit

Levelised cost of electricity - China average (Yuan/MWh0) Levelised cost of electricity - China average (Yuan/MWh0) Levelised cost of electricity - China average (Yuan/MWh0) Cost of hydrogen production from grid electricity

Netherlands – 100MW electrolyser / €20/MWh grid fee

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

2025 2030 2040 2050

100 MW PEM Hydrogen - Optimized grid power supply

100 MW PEM Hydrogen - Dedicated offshore wind power supply

Levelised cost of electricity - China average (Yuan/MWh0)

US

D /

kg

Source: IHS Markit © 2019 IHS Markit

Levelised cost of electricity - China average (Yuan/MWh0) Levelised cost of electricity - China average (Yuan/MWh0) Levelised cost of electricity - China average (Yuan/MWh0) Comparison of grid supply and dedicated offshore

wind supply for electrolysis in the Netherlands

Note: grid supply subject to a grid fee of €20/MWh

Page 20: Presentation Hydrogen and Renewable Gas Forum

Confidential. © 2020 IHS Markit®. All rights reserved.

Agenda

20

• The role of hydrogen and renewable gas in global energy

• Economics of hydrogen production

• The role of hydrogen in a low-carbon economy

• The IHS Markit Hydrogen and Renewable Gas Forum

IHS Markit Hydrogen and Renewable Gas Forum

Page 21: Presentation Hydrogen and Renewable Gas Forum

Confidential. © 2020 IHS Markit®. All rights reserved.

Hydrogen as part of the future energy mixIHS Markit have developed outlooks through 2050 that are consistent with regional climate targets

IHS Markit Hydrogen and Renewable Gas Forum

21

• The long-term demand outlooks build upon the Autonomy scenario—but consider the potential for

hydrogen use in all sectors of the economy to meet long-term climate targets

• California—Executive order seeking carbon neutrality by 2045

• China—65% CO2 reduction vs 2015 levels (consistent with “Beautiful China” ambition)

• Europe—net-zero carbon by 2050

• The supply mix is built-up considering the sector of demand, the pace of demand growth and the

outlook for hydrogen production costs

Page 22: Presentation Hydrogen and Renewable Gas Forum

Confidential. © 2020 IHS Markit®. All rights reserved.

Key messages from hydrogen demand and supply analysis

IHS Markit Hydrogen and Renewable Gas Forum

22

1. Share of hydrogen in the energy mix is dependent on the degree of climate ambition. Where

deep decarbonisation is sought the share of hydrogen expected to be > natural gas today

2. Inclusion of aviation in climate targets hugely increases the role for hydrogen as a feedstock

for synthetic jet—but at a significant cost

3. By mid-century, similar volumes of hydrogen are expected to be produced from fossil sources

and electricity. Focusing on only one source is likely to slow deployment of hydrogen

4. Electricity as a feedstock for hydrogen production could to dominate electricity demand—in

2050 in the high case for hydrogen in Europe over 50% of electricity demand is used for H2

5. In Europe and the US, deployment of hydrogen provides long-term security of demand for

natural gas (as a feedstock for methane reforming).

6. In China, deployment of H2 could significantly reduce natural gas imports from the early-

2030s onwards. Domestic H2 from coal (with CCS), wind and solar displaces imported gas

Page 23: Presentation Hydrogen and Renewable Gas Forum

Confidential. © 2020 IHS Markit®. All rights reserved.

Share of hydrogen in final energy demand in the IHS Markit outlooks - 2050

The share of hydrogen in final energy demand increases rapidly as climate

ambition increases—inclusion of aviation a key driver of increase

23

Source: IHS Markit © 2020 IHS Markit

Sh

are

of

hyd

rog

en

Climate ambition (GHG Reduction)

0%

40%

20%

60% 70% 80% 90%

0%

10%

H2

Green

Europe

93% emission reduction (excluding aviation and shipping)

28%

NZC

NZC

Elimination of fossil fuel combustion (including

from international aviation and shipping)

14%

32%

IHS Markit Hydrogen and Renewable Gas Forum

Autonomy

Page 24: Presentation Hydrogen and Renewable Gas Forum

Confidential. © 2020 IHS Markit®. All rights reserved.

Hydrogen can be used in all sectors of the economy

IHS Markit Hydrogen and Renewable Gas Forum

24

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

California China Europe

Residential & Commercial Industry Power & Heat generation Road transport Other transport Other Refinery and feedstock

2050 hydrogen demand by sector across all three studies

© 2020 IHS Markit

Sh

are

of

H2

de

ma

nd

Source: IHS Markit

Page 25: Presentation Hydrogen and Renewable Gas Forum

Confidential. © 2020 IHS Markit®. All rights reserved.

Trajectory for total cost of ownership for FCEV vs BEV Municipal operators could play major role to drive initial cost reductions

25

Driver of cost reduction by sector

Source: IHS Markit © 2020 IHS Markit

Reducing fuel prices important driver of competitiveness once initial price premium removed; benefits of

hydrogen greatest for large fleets

Premium of H2 vehicles over battery vehicles (FCEV-BEV)/BEV Batteries lower

cost than H2

H2 lower cost

than batteries

HDV

2020

2020

Equipment cost

declines and

higher utilization

Fuel efficiency,

uptime, fleet

economics, range,

and payload

Drivers improving competitiveness of H2

100% -100%50% -50%0%

2020

2030

2030

2030

2050

2050

2050

IHS Markit Hydrogen and Renewable Gas Forum

Page 26: Presentation Hydrogen and Renewable Gas Forum

Confidential. © 2020 IHS Markit®. All rights reserved.

In the short-term, H2 from fossil fuels are expected to dominate supply, but by mid-century electrolysis linked to dedicated renewables will be the largest source of supply

IHS Markit Hydrogen and Renewable Gas Forum

26

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2030 2040 2050 2030 2040 2050 2030 2040 2050

California China EuropeSteam methane reforming Coal gasification Oil Electrolysis

Hydrogen supply by technology and fuel

© 2020 IHS Markit

Sh

are

of

hyd

rog

en

syp

pp

ly

Notes: Hashed areas represent use of CCS.

Source: IHS Markit

Page 27: Presentation Hydrogen and Renewable Gas Forum

Confidential. © 2020 IHS Markit®. All rights reserved.

In the long-term, use of electricity as a feedstock for hydrogen supply

could be the largest use of electricity in the economy

0

1 000

2 000

3 000

4 000

5 000

6 000

7 000

8 000

9 000

2018 2030 2040 2050 2050 -NZCGas

H2 supply

Energy sector use

T&D losses

Transport

Industry

Commercial

Residential

Power demand by sector: NZC HP

Source: IHS Markit © 2019 IHS Markit

TW

h

0

500

1 000

1 500

2 000

2 500

3 000

3 500

4 000

2018 2030 2040 2050 2050 -NZCGas

Solar PV - for H2

Wind off - for H2

Wind on - for H2

Electricity storage

Other RES

Solar PV

Wind off

Wind on

Hydro incl. PSP

Thermal

Nuclear

Installed capacity by technology: NZC HP

Source: IHS Markit © 2019 IHS Markit

GW

NZC

Drivers of lower power demand

• Higher end-use efficiency

• Greater share of heat

• Direct use of renewables

IHS Markit Hydrogen and Renewable Gas Forum

27

Page 28: Presentation Hydrogen and Renewable Gas Forum

Confidential. © 2020 IHS Markit®. All rights reserved.

Agenda

28

• The role of hydrogen and renewable gas in global energy

• Economics of hydrogen production

• The role of hydrogen in a low-carbon economy

• The IHS Markit Hydrogen and Renewable Gas Forum

IHS Markit Hydrogen and Renewable Gas Forum

Page 29: Presentation Hydrogen and Renewable Gas Forum

Confidential. © 2020 IHS Markit®. All rights reserved.

IHS Markit Hydrogen and Renewable Gas Initiatives

29

Hydrogen and Renewable Gas Forum 2020Global Coverage

Hydrogen in the Golden State European Hydrogen ForumHydrogen as the Enabler: Meeting

China’s Energy Challenge?

IHS Markit regional hydrogen studies in 2018/2019 developed with 60+ partner companies

IHS Markit Hydrogen and Renewable Gas Forum

Page 30: Presentation Hydrogen and Renewable Gas Forum

Confidential. © 2020 IHS Markit®. All rights reserved.

IHS Markit Hydrogen and Renewable Gas Forum

Research pillars

Deliverables of the Hydrogen and Renewable Gas Forum

Market Fundamentals Data and analytics Community

Economic analysis of the

value chain

Long-term outlooks for low-

carbon gas demand and

supply

Source: IHS Markit © 2020 IHS Markit

Power-to-X project tracker4 workshops per year

1 in US, 2 in Europe, 1 in APAC

Hydrogen & renewable gas

industry site visits

Regular webinars

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Levelized cost of hydrogen

production model

Interactive models for the full

value chain

Full energy balance outlook

for major markets

IHS Markit Hydrogen and Renewable Gas Forum

Page 31: Presentation Hydrogen and Renewable Gas Forum

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What is the Hydrogen and Renewable Gas Forum?

Production / Transportation & Storage / End-use sectors

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Hydrogen Biomethane Synthetic methane Ammonia Methanol

Reforming

(with and without CCS)

Europe Europe Europe

US US US

China China China

Asia importing countries Asia importing countries Asia importing countries

Exporting countries Exporting countries Exporting countries

Gasification

(with and without CCS)

Europe Europe Europe Europe Europe

US US US US US

China

Australia Australia Australia

Methane Pyrolysis Europe

US

China

Electroysis -- AEC Europe Europe Europe Europe

US US US US

Asia Asia Asia

Electroysis -- PEM Europe Europe Europe Europe

US US US US

China China China

Asia importing countries Asia importing countries Asia importing countries

Exporting countries Exporting countries Exporting countries

Electroysis -- SOEC Europe Europe Europe Europe

US US US US

Asia Asia Asia

Completed First half 2020 Second half 2020 China completed, Korea/Japan to be completed Second half 2020 Not applicable

Asian importing countries: Korea and Japan | Exporting countries: Australia, Middle East and North Africa

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What is the Hydrogen and Renewable Gas Forum?

Production / Transportation&Storage / End-use sectors

32

Hydrogen Biomethane Synthetic methane Ammonia Methanol LOHC

Tube trailer Europe

US

Asia

Liquid trailer Europe Injected into gas grid - costs and

treatment as natural gas

Europe Europe Europe

US US US US

Asia Asia Asia Asia

Pipeline Europe

US

Asia

Liquid ship Europe Europe Europe Europe

US US US US

Asia Asia Asia Asia

STORAGE

Compressed tanks Europe Europe Europe Europe

US US US US

Asia Asia Asia Asia

Liquid tanks Europe Europe Europe Europe

US US US US

Asia Asia Asia Asia

Salt cavern Europe

US

Asia

Depleted oil and gas field Europe

US

Asia

Completed First half 2020 Second half 2020 China completed, Korea/Japan to be completed Second half 2020 Not applicable

Asian importing countries: Korea and Japan | Exporting countries: Australia, Middle East and North Africa

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What is the Hydrogen and Renewable Gas Forum?

Production / Transportation&Storage / End-use sectors

33

Low carbon fuels Current dominant fuel (baseline) and other

alternatives

Hydrogen Biomethane Synthetic methane Ammonia Methanol Synthetic jet fuel Diesel/gasoline/jet fuel Battery electric

END USE -- TRANSPORT

Light duty Europe Europe Europe Europe

US US US US

Asia Asia Asia

Medium duty Europe Europe Europe Europe

US US US US

Asia Asia Asia

Heavy duty Europe Europe Europe Europe

US US US US

Asia Asia Asia

Buses Europe Europe Europe Europe

US US US US

Asia Asia Asia

Shipping Europe Europe Europe Europe Europe Europe Europe

US US US US US

Asia Asia Asia Asia Asia

Aviation Europe Europe

US US

Asia Asia

END USE - INDUSTRY Coal Natural gas

Iron and steel Europe Europe Europe

US US US

Asia Asia Asia

END USE - RESIDENTIAL AND COMMERICAL Heat pumps Direct electricity

Space heating Europe Europe Europe Europe

US US US US

Water heating Europe Europe Europe Europe

US US US US

Completed First half 2020 Second half 2020 China completed, Korea/Japan to be completed Second half 2020 Not applicable

Asian importing countries: Korea and Japan | Exporting countries: Australia, Middle East and North Africa

Page 34: Presentation Hydrogen and Renewable Gas Forum

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Deep dive on interaction between carbon capture and storage and

low carbon gases

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Page 35: Presentation Hydrogen and Renewable Gas Forum

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Interaction between CCUS and low-carbon gases

Scope of coverage in Hydrogen and Renewable Gas Forum

35

Coal

Gas

Oil

Biomass

Power generation

Hydrogen production

CO2 capture

CO2 storage

Enhanced oil recovery

Direct air capture

Biological processes

Covered in the GPE CCUS research program

Excluded from the GPE CCUS research program

Input fuels

consideredAreas of focus

Legend

Industry CO2

transportation

Page 36: Presentation Hydrogen and Renewable Gas Forum

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Interaction between CCUS and low-carbon gases: Three main areas of

research

Areas of research:

1. Current feasibility and status of carbon capture and storage

2. Current feasibility and status of negative emission technologies: BECCS* / DAC*

3. Economics of fuels produced with captured CO2 vs alternative low-carbon options

*BECCS—Bioenergy with carbon capture and storage

*DAC—Direct air capture

Page 37: Presentation Hydrogen and Renewable Gas Forum

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Interaction between CCUS and low-carbon gases1. Current feasibility and status of carbon capture and storage

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• Research

• High-level overview of policy measures to support the development of CCS?

• What is the cost of carbon capture and storage? Detailed costing for the various options

• How does the level of CO2 capture vary depending on capture process and source of CO2?

• What are the options for CO2 storage?

• Data and analytics

• Database of carbon capture and storage projects globally

• Indicative cost comparison for carbon capture, CO2 transportation and CO2 storage

Page 38: Presentation Hydrogen and Renewable Gas Forum

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Interaction between CCUS and low-carbon gases 2. Current feasibility and status of negative emission technologies

38

• Research

• High-level overview of policy measures to support the development of negative emission technologies?

• What is the status of the BECCS and DAC?

• What is the cost of BECCS and DAC?

• Data and analytics

• Database of BECCS and DAC projects

• Details of assumptions used for economic analysis—capex, opex, etc

• Current and projected cost comparison for BECCS and DAC

Page 39: Presentation Hydrogen and Renewable Gas Forum

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Interaction between CCUS and low-carbon gases 3. Economics of fuels produced with captured CO2 vs alternative low-carbon options

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• Research: End-use cost comparison

• Cost of synthetic methane vs hydrogen vs direct electricity

• Cost of synthetic methane vs ammonia and methanol

• Cost of synthetic jet vs ammonia

• Cost or pre-vs-post combustion carbon capture—i.e. Use of hydrogen produced from natural gas with carbon capture

and storage vs use of natural gas with carbon capture and storage on flue gases

• Data and analytics

• PowerBI dashboard with cost comparisons

Page 40: Presentation Hydrogen and Renewable Gas Forum

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IHS Markit Hydrogen and Renewable Gas Team

• Simon Blakey – [email protected]

• Ronan Bernard – [email protected]

• Sylvain Cognet-Dauphin – [email protected]

• Mark Griffith – [email protected]

• Alex Klaessig – [email protected]

• Patrick Luckow – [email protected]

• Xiao Lu – [email protected]

• Deborah Mann – [email protected]

• Cristian Muresan – [email protected]

• Saad Raad – [email protected]

• Frederick Ritter – [email protected]

• Catherine Robinson – [email protected]

• Wade Shafer – [email protected]

• Shankari Srinivasan – [email protected]

• Soufien Taamallah – [email protected]

• Jenny Yang – [email protected]

• Dongjie Zhang – [email protected]

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IHS Markit Hydrogen and Renewable Gas Forum

Page 41: Presentation Hydrogen and Renewable Gas Forum

IHS Markit Customer Care

[email protected]

Americas: +1 800 IHS CARE (+1 800 447 2273)

Europe, Middle East, and Africa: +44 (0) 1344 328 300

Asia and the Pacific Rim: +604 291 3600

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