presentation from may 9, 2006 dinner meeting
TRANSCRIPT
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Systems Engineering
Vision 2020
Presentation to Washington Metropolitan Area Chapter
9 May 2006
Dr. Harry E. Crisp
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Background
SE Vision is one of the INCOSE Top 4 Projects
Intent is to provide a consensus SE communitydocument and to regularly update it
Current focus areas include:- Future Systems
- Public Systems
- Model-Based SE
- Global Systems Engineering Environment- Process Evolution
- Human Roles
- SE Education
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Background (Cont.)
Format of the Vision:
Current State of the Practice
New/Emerging Drivers & Technologies
Inhibitors
Vision State of the Art in 2010
Vision State of the Art in 2020
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Progress to Date
INCOSE International Workshop: January 2004
Version 1.5 of the SE Vision: November 2005
http://www.incose.org/membersonly2005/
INCOSE International Workshop: January 2006 Conference on SE Research: April 2006
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IW 2006 SE Vision
2020 Workshop
Future Systems
Model-Based Systems Engineering
Global Systems Engineering Environment Process Evolution
Systems Engineering Education
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Global SE Environment
State of the Practice Emerging Drivers Inhibitors 2010 2020
Awkwardcommunicationsbetween companies
and countries
Some progress
betweenprofessionalorganizations andsocieties
Lack of consistentterminology and
definitions
Manufacturing basemoving to China,Taiwan, Korea, etc.
SW development ismoving to India
Regulatory issuesdrive SE in publicpolicy
Commercialenterprise SEdrivers includemulti-sourceresilience; changingnature of value
chain Inherent tensions
Cultural styles
Language
Terminology
SE scalability to
small projects
IP protection Inability to articulate
value of SE
Inability to visualizethe global systemof systems contextand environment
Advanced systemstheory, methods,and tools
Interdisciplinaryemphasis in
engineeringeducation
Improveduse/integration ofengineeringspecialties
Improvedunderstanding ofpsychology
languages andcultural differences
Interdisciplinarity
Agile enterprises
Multiplicity of SoSSE environmentsfor full
collaboration,modeling andprediction
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SE Process Evolution
State of Practice Emerging Drivers Inhibitors 2010 2020
Limitedunderstanding andapplication of SE
processes beyonddefense andaerospace
Lack of usefulexecutable processmodels
Disagreement onapplicability of SE
to socio-technicaleconomic andpolitical problems
Perception that SEis burdensome andheavy-weight
Drive to harmonizesystemsengineering
process standards
Greater agility,
adaptability androbustness indefining andadapting SEprocesses
Accelerating
changes in userneeds and externalenvironments
Technologyadvances
Teaming fordevelopment
Cultural resistanceto change
Terminologyinconsistencies
Lack of
empowerment Focus on short-
term profits
Increasedintegration ofengineering PM
and businessprocesses
Betterunderstanding ofSE processes
Executable models
Harmonizationacross disciplines
Process agility
SE cost estimationmodels
Cultural andprocess awareness
Education andtraining of SEssupport of SE
vision
Continuous processimprovement
Common lexiconthat crossessectors, domainsand disciplines
Only value-addprocesses get used
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Future SystemsEmerging Drivers Inhibitors 2010 2020
Role of humans in theentire system life cycle,rising expectations,
disruptive technologies,rapid technologychanges, integrity,robustness
Affordability,sustainability, trust,health and socialsystems, globalenvironment, anti-terrorism, transportation,national/internationalpriorities, regulatoryenvironment
Systems of Systems,infrastructure (humanand physical)
Limited bandwidth, lackof collaboration, NIHsyndrome, lack of
interoperabilitystandards, lack of SEtheory and practice tohandle complexity, silodisciplines
Regulatory environment,government/userinflexibility; lack ofsystems thinking outsideof engineering domain;failure of SE in priorsystems efforts
Lack of appropriatemature technology andprocesses, ingrainednature of legacysystems, inertia (e.g.,cost of replacement,political legacy), business
competition
Regional scale SoS;some interconnectedsystems and
communities ofsystems
Experimenting with new
SE approaches beyondthe technical to includepolitical, economic, legal,etc.
Gathering experience onhow to handle legacy,
e.g., doing patch-up jobsand design throughexperimentation
Extensive inter-connectedness, globalscale SoS
Stakeholders will havegreater role in systemrequirements and
acceptability; the rangeof environmentalpossibilities which mayexist and are difficult topredict; new approachesincorporated fromexperiments
Robust consideration oflegacy in designenvironment includingreplacement of legacyelements as a deliberatestrategy; infrastructurewill have built-inupgradeability
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Model Based Systems EngineeringState of Practice Emerging Drivers Inhibitors 2010 2020
Limited use ofarchitectural framework
Models not coherent and
logically consistent
Campaign/missionmodels not integrated
with engineeringmodels
System to component
Across domain
specific (electrical,)
Inconsistent data
sources andassumptions
Lack of execution
capabilities in tools
Automated codegeneration and testing
Emphasis on technology
vs. human centric
SysML just being adopted
Complexity Shorten cycle
time
IT explosion
Evolving profile of
an SE
User andcustomer
acceptance
Learning curve ofMBSE
Limited maturity
of SYSML
SYSMLcompatible tools
Increased use of MBSE across lifecycle
Architecture model being used as
unifying framework
Higher degree of model cohesion
Disciplines
Levels of design (system tocomponent)
Models for development,
production and delivery
Integration of models across lifecycle
Integration between system
design, analysis, and simulationmodels
Improved integration between
models and empirical data(semi-empirical models)
Executable specifications and
design models including code
generation Partly improved modeling of human
interaction
Effects based modeling / multiplerelationships
Composable federations which
encapsulate proprietary data (SOA)
Standard data exchange andimproved data sharing (key to model
integration)
Fully coherent models(component to
enterprise/business)
Trustworthy models witheasy, reliable and
unambiguous datainterchange
Complete models
including humaninteraction, social
aspects, enablingsystems
Automated impacts
across models
Domain specific standardlanguages
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Systems Engineering EducationState of Practice Emerging Drivers Inhibitors 2010 2020
Undergraduate level haschanged little in past 10
years
No standard atundergraduate level for
defining SE education
Some specialty/domainareas starting to infuse a
systems view
Struggling to fill openacademic positions
Globalization hasbecome a major
driver; virtualclassroom is
everywhere
New technologyrequires constant
refreshing ofeducational
pursuit
Still need to train
engineers to
operate existingsystems and to
thinksystematically to
improve
Environmentalissues, natural
disasters, globalterrorist issues
present differentkinds of SE
evaluations
Relatively fewengineers are
educated in asystems manner
SE not
considered ascience
4-year
undergraduateprogram
constraints push
systems thinking
to next level
Most educatorsstill teach using
old methods
Many employersdo not
understand valueof people with
broader system
skills
Expansion of SE thought intoan expanded curriculum
Stable common core of SE
courses for expanding traditionalengineering disciplines
Increased influence of the SE
techniques in a technicalsociety
Drug abuse prevention,
homeland security, crimeprevention, urban expansion,infrastructure development, etc.
New techniques for SEeducation delivery
Just-in-time education; web-enabled education; information
chunking
Increased collaboration
Between management and SE;
societies interested in SE;persons with interdisciplinary
interests
Curriculum expansion,collaboration, use of
newer technologies will
continue
Influence of systems
thinking will get applied togovernments and large
scale societal problemsolving
Use of technology will
create major innovations
for SE education
Simulation,
visualization,gaming, etc.
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Common Themes 2010 & 2020
Integrating and Managing Complexity
Rapidly Evolving & Unpredictable SE Environment
Leveraging Legacy Systems Assets with COTS
Increasing Realization SE is Multidisciplinary & Needs
Collaborative Approaches
More Standardized Processes and Lexicon Needed
Increasing Need for SE Tools & Technology
Identifying, Responding to and Managing Disruptive
Technologies
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Common Themes 2010 & 2020
Increased Role of SE Education
Need for Better Collaboration Across University
Departments, Professional Societies and SE
Communities
Realization of the Pervasive Impact of Globalizationon SE
Emergence of Family & System of Systems
Engineering of More Robust Processes and Systems
Better Integration of the Human is Important
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SE Vision forms a Framework
Use outcome of SE Vision Workshops to
construct a roadmap to achieve the vision
Roadmap used to establish a collaborationframework
Use best athlete approach to pair most
capable organization with the work to be
done recognize that it wont always be
us!
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Operating Environment Study
Identify relevant organizations:
Leadership
Charters Membership
Strengths & Weaknesses
Existing Liaisons / Partnerships with INCOSE
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Approach to Partnering with Other
Professional Organizations
Operating Environment Study
Identify SE Vision Capability Needs
Identify Who Can Best Address the Needs Determine Optimal Partnership Type
Identify the Right INCOSE Liaison
Establish the Partnership Maintain the Partnership
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Establishing Partnerships
Adopt a more strategic approach forestablishing partnerships with others:
Value to us
Cost to us versus payoff
Value to the profession
Other considerations?
Define several levels of partnership
depending on parameters identified above Strategically pick our liaison
representatives
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Maintaining Partnerships
Periodic Health Checks are needed toassure the partnership is still effective:
May require level adjustments
May require liaison changes Should be closed when no longer productive
Need to keep an accessible record of
standing partnerships and associated
liaisons
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Workshop
At CSER06:
Research
Workshop
At IW2007:
Energy
Workshop
At IS2007:
Complex
Systems
Workshop
At CSER07:
Education
Workshop
At IS2006:
Modelling &
Simulation
Workshop
At CSER08:
Research
Workshop
At IS2008:
Infrastructure SE
Trends in
SE Education
Trends in SE
Research
Trends in SE
Research
Trends inEnergy SE
Trends in SE
of ComplexSystems
Major
UpdateWorkshop
At IW2006
Vision
1.5
Vision
3.0
Vision
2.0
Major
UpdateWorkshop
At IW2008
Trends in
InfrastructureSE
Latest Vision documentas input to workshop
Trends documentinforms update of Vision
Draft SE Vision Roadmap
Trends in SE
Modelling &Simulation