presentation from october 11, 2005 dinner meeting

8/9/2019 Presentation from October 11, 2005 Dinner Meeting

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Decision Support for AgileButterflies

… or how to make informed investments in Decision Support

Capabilities for Intelligence Age Agile knowledge-based Enterprises

DM

KM

DI

AgileKnowledge-based

Enterprise



06/10/10 2

Evaluation of Agile Knowledge-based Enterprise Implicatiofor Intelligence Age Decision Support Systems - Vandergri

Copyright 2005 – Linda J. Vandergriff

Why DSS Research for Agile Knowledge-based Enterprises?

Industrial Age Woolen Mills & Factories

Physical Capital

Product Focused

Characteristics Control

Long Floats / Stability Forecasting & Slow change

Mass Production

Complicated butDecomposable

Independent

MOEs Efficiency

Quality

Intelligence Age Customer Service & Products

Intellectual Capital

Customer Focused

Characteristics Empowerment

Short Floats / Edge of Chaos

Limited Predictability &Dynamic

Responsive Expertise /Adaptability

Complex with EmergentBehaviors

Interdependent

MOEs Effectiveness

Value

CKO/CIOs Need a good framework for investment decisions

CKO/CIOs Need a good framework for investment decisions



06/10/10 3



Overview Exploratory Research Questionsand Goal

Re-tooling DSS for Agile Knowledge-based Enterprises

Key questions

What are the 21st century business environment’s keycharacteristics and drivers?

What is the proper Agile Knowledge-based Enterprise

architectural model? What are the prioritized desired operational DSS

capabilities to drive the requirement developmentprocess?

Goal

Propose an integrated, traceable, and vetted set of AgileEnterprise Decision Support Architecture operationalcapabilities for the 21st century Intelligence Ageenvironment



06/10/10 4



Research Methodology Map

KeyQuestions

JCIDS Approach Research Steps Products

Ag

ile EnterpriseCharacteristics

& Drivers

Ag

ile EnterpriseCharacteristics

& Drivers

FAAAgile Enterprise

Context

FAAAgile Enterprise

Context

ArchitectureContext (AV-1)Lexicon (AV-2)

ArchitectureContext (AV-1)Lexicon (AV-2)

• Outline ArchitectureProcess• Identify ArchitectureProducts• Standardize KeyTerms• Define Mission /Vision

• Summarize Drivers• Formulate BusinessStrategies

Agile EnterpriseDecision Support

Architecture

Ag

ile EnterpriseDecision Support

Architecture

FNA

Agile EnterpriseOperationalArchitecture

FNA

Agile EnterpriseOperationalArchitecture

Operational

CONOPS (OV-1)Stakeholders (OV-4)Connectivity (OV-2)

Activities (OV-5)

OperationalCONOPS (OV-1)

Stakeholders (OV-4)Connectivity (OV-2)

Activities (OV-5)

• Capture Operational

Concept• IdentifyStakeholders• Define NodeConnectivity• Decompose Activities

Ag


Capabilities

Ag


Capabilities

Capability Trees

(OV-5)

Capability Trees(OV-5)

FSAAgile Enterprise

ProposedCapabilities

FSAAgile Enterprise

Proposed

Capabilities

PIAAgile Enterprise

PrioritizedCapabilities

PIAAgile Enterprise

PrioritizedCapabilities

Vetted & PrioritizedCapability

Lists

Ve

tted & PrioritizedCapability

Lists

• Further DecomposeActivities•

Identify Capabilities• Develop CapabilityDescriptions

• Identify TargetPopulation• Design ResearchInstrument• ValidateQuestionnaire

• Receive GWU IRBApproval



06/10/10 5



Agile Knowledge-based Enterprise*

Enterprise “Two or more individuals applying resources through

actions to achieve mutual purpose.”

Agile Enterprise “An enterprise that exhibits the ability to self-adapt

(e.g., display agility) to changes in its context (e.g.,fitness landscape), its internal capabilities, its

stakeholder’s interest (e.g., value) while honoringprinciples of system and society (e.g., coherence).”

Knowledge-based Enterprise An enterprise that creates, markets, and sells

products and services based mainly on theintellectual capital of the enterprise.

* Based on INCOSE Intelligent Enterprise Working Group



06/10/10 6



Agile Knowledge-based EnterpriseCharacteristics

Maintains competitiveness in a dynamic unpredictable market place Short term trends but loss of long term predictability Need to co-evolve organization to fit the environment (I.e., Fitness Landscape)

Fly-by-wire organization with situational awareness (I.e., facilitated OODA Loops)

Utilizes coherent leadership and empowerment

Leadership provides vision and example

Flattened empowering organizational culture (I.e., decisions/actions on the frontline)

Solutions from self-organizing agents Decisions at point of contact

Leverages emergent behaviors from simple actions Innovation and learning depend on interconnectedness

Main Revenue Generating Assets

Intellectual Capital

Knowledge Workers Knowledge Services and Products



06/10/10 7



Complexity Business Model

Key Characteristics of Class IV•Non-linearity Small input variations - large changes in results over time

•Emergence Simple Rules give rise to complex behaviors

•Interconnectedness Relationships can impact solutions not always

decomposable

•Self-organization Adaptation and innovation provide best solutions

•Strange Attractors Dynamic Co-Evolutionary Fitness Landscape

Complexity Theory Behavior Classes•Class I – Steady State•Class II – Static Patterns•Class III – Wild Variations•Class IV – Extended Transients

Operate in Class IV – Edge of Chaos

“plic” – to fold“plex” – to weave

“plic” – to fold“plex” – to weave

Complicated – simple

Complex - independent



06/10/10 8



Globalized Functional Core• Integrated Rule Set• Economy• Security• Behavior• Technology

• Conflict Resolution• Lawyers & Diplomats

• Relationships

• Interdependence• Cooperation

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

E m p l o y m e n t ( i n t h

Industrial SupportInformation SupportGovernmentSalesOther

Departmentof Labor 2004Labor ataGlanceStatistics for 12industrysupersectors.

- BasedonNorthAmericanIndustryClassification System(NAICS)

- Basedonprivate-sector employmentexceptfor governmentcategory.

Agile Enterprise Context / Environment

IntelligenceAge

Knowledge-based Economy 3rd Wave of Globalization

Capability to

Receive,

UtilizeStore

Transform &

Transmit

Information

Collapse of Floats

Non-integrating Gap• Conflict Resolution

• Wars & Terrorism• Relationships

• Isolationism

Non-integrating Gap• Conflict Resolution

• Wars & Terrorism• Relationships

• Isolationism

CR

USTT

I

• Information•Rapid transmittal

•Incorporation & Use• Culture•Trends•Global

• Technology•Faster evolution•Feed-back & adoption



06/10/10 9



Observations

Decision

(Hypothesis)

Action

(Test)

Orient

CulturalTraditions

Genetic

Heritage

NewInformation

PreviousExperience

Analyses &

Synthesis

UnfoldingCircumstances

OutsideInformation

UnfoldingInteraction

WithEnvironmen

t

Implicit Guidance& Control

Implicit Guidance& Control

Feedback

Feed

Forward

Cross-referencing process of projection, empathy, correlation, & rejection

Cross-referencing process of projection, empathy, correlation, & rejection

Feed

Forward

Feed

Forward

Observe, Orient, Decide and Act (OODA)Loop or Boyd Cycle

Composed of 3 Major Activities

Decision-making Decision Implementation

Knowledge Management

Composed of 3 Major Activities

Decision-making Decision Implementation

Knowledge Management



06/10/10 10



Current Grab Bag Approach to DSS

AgileE n

terprise

Interne

t

Structured

Data

&Information

Unstructure

dData

&Inf

ormation

VisibleWeb

Invisible

Web

Usenet

P2P

ExplicitKno

wledge

Resource Planning

External Environment& Customer Awareness

Supply Chain Mgmt

OnlineTransactional

Databases

DataWarehouse

Datamart

Datamart

Business Modeling Systems

Document Management

Content Management

Authoring

Implementation Metrics

TacitKnow

l edge

Collaboration

Social Network

Communitiesof Practice

YellowPa

ges

DMToolsAnalysis

Reports

MentoringLearning

StorytellingInterviews

Groupw

are

Distance LearningWeb-based Training

Help-desk ApplicationsExpert SystemsArtificial IntelligenceTopic and Page Tracking

•Reports•Best Practices

•Manuals•Proposals & Contracts

•Presentations•Drawings•Analysis

•Audio Files•Video Files

•E-mail•Correspondence•Newsletters

Full Text

Searches

Archives

•Web Search Engines•Enterprise Information Portal (Intranet)•Government Web Sites•Refereed Web Sites

•Consumer Discussions•Domain Specific Discussions

•Chat & Instant Messaging•Message Boards•Databases•Online Content Archives

•Emerging Applications

•Catalogs•Web Logs•Reviews, Ratings•News, Publications, Magazines

Knowledge Generation

Knowledge

Elicitation

Knowledge

Captu

re

Workflow

SearchEngines

DataMining

Collaboratio

n

Knowledge-based CAD

Performance Tracking

Analytical Apps

- Models

- Heuristics

- Statistics

- Expert Systems

- Artificial IntelligenceWarehousin

g

IntelligentAgents

• Polls• Gallery



06/10/10 11



Decomposed Activities to NeededCapabilities

4/26/05 12

Evaluationof AgileKnowledge-basedEnterpriseImplicationsfor InformationAgeDecisionSupportSystems -Vandergriff 05

Copyright 2005 – Linda J . Vandergriff

Decision Implementation Activities Expanded

RiskTracking

/MonitoringRiskMitigation

/Option

Implementation

NewRisk Identification

Facilitate

Effective

RiskManagement

Explicit

KnowledgeRetrievalTacitKnowledge

Collaboration

Explicit Knowledge

atPOC wCustomerEnsuresharedvalues

Implementation

PlanAccess

forimpacted

staff

Implementation

InsightArticulate

Expectations

Decision

Notification

for impacted

staff

ImplementationManagement

MeasurePerformance

AnalyzeImplementation

Performance

(Metrics/Trends)

SituationalAwarenessof"Fitness

Landscape"

InformImplementation

withStandardReportingInformImplementation

withTailoredReporting

Assess

Implementation

wrtplan

Trigger

Decision ContextChangeNotice

Decision Makers

Decision

ImplementersOthersImpacted

Parties

Notify

DecisionContext

Changes

MonitorImplementation

KnowledgeCreation

Implicit

KnowledgeCapture

SupportImplicit

Knowledge

InnovationsCapture

Innovation

NotificationImprovement

Capture

SupportInnovation

Sharing

LessonLearnedCapture

BestPractices

CaptureReview

Triggers

SupportLessons

Learned

FacilitateLearning

EmpowerAgileEnterprise

Decision

Implementation

Developed Enterprise

ArchitectureOV – 1, OV – 2, OV – 4, OV–5

Decomposed Activities

Survey Literature for

Current CapabilitiesCreated list of 30

l i f il l d b d i li i



06/10/10 12



Capabilities Analysis Map

Decision

ImplementationCapabilities

Decision

ImplementationCapabilities

PrioritizedVetted List


Likert Score

Capability Ranking

Prioritization

Capability Ranking

Spearman ‘s Rho Correlation

Additional Essential DSS Capabilities AdditionalCapabilities List

AdditionalCapabilities List

Likert Score RankingFor each E-CMM High / Other Score

Decision-makingCapabilities

Decision-making

Capabilities



Knowledge

ManagementCapabilities

Knowledge

ManagementCapabilities



Decision Support Capability Evaluation 3

Not NeededNo OpinionDesirable

Highly DesirableEssential

Not NeededNo OpinionDesirable

Highly DesirableEssential

Invitation (2800) &

Respondent (80) Statistics

Respondent

Organizational Demographics

Demographics 1

Defense &Intel

For Profit

Defense &Intel

For Profit

MajorityKW

20+ Years

MajorityKW

20+ Years

E-CMM

Assessment

E-CMMIndividual

Scores

VettedDimensions

Vetted

Dimensions

E-CMM Assessments2

E-CMM

Validation

Strongly DisagreeDisagree

No OpinionAgree

Strongly Agree

Strongly DisagreeDisagree

No OpinionAgree

Strongly Agree

TrustCommunic

ationLeadership

ValuingLearningAuthority

Competenc

y

TrustCommunic

ationLeadership

ValuingLearningAuthority

Competenc

y

30 High50

Medium

30 High50

Medium

Respondent

Individual Demographics

Concept Awareness

Agile Enterprise, DSS,KM

Basic99%

Advanced

Basic99%

Advanced

CorrelatedRankings

CorrelatedRankings

E l ti f A il K l d b d E t i I li ti



06/10/10 13



Decision-making Capabilities AnalysisOverview

• All proposed capabilities rated highly desirable or essential• High Empowerment group identified Situational Awareness of

higher importance

• All proposed capabilities rated highly desirable or essential• High Empowerment group identified Situational Awareness of

higher importance

Activity

Description

Essential

Frequency

Essential

%ExplicitKnowledge

39 48

QuantitativeAnalysis

33 41

DecisionDefinition

27 33

SituationalAwareness

26 32

Decision Points 25 31

Decision Context 25 31

QualitativeAnalysis

18 22

Tacit Knowledge 17 21

Group Decision-making

15 19

Implementation

Planning 12 15

Expert System 7 9

0.00 0.20 0.40 0.60 0.80 1.00

Situational Awareness

Decision Points

Explicit Know ledge

Tacit Know ledge

Decision Definition

Qualitative Analysis

Quantitative Analysis

Decision Context

Implementation Planning

Group D ecision-making

Expert System

% Frequency Likert Score

Essentia l Highly Des irable Des irable No Opinion Not Needed

1/4 3/4

E l ti f A il K l d b d E t i I li ti



06/10/10 14



Decision-making Vetted PrioritizedCapabilities

Short Descriptor Description

Explicit Knowledge Provide explicit knowledge retrieval (e.g., access to data, information,

or knowledge)

Quantitative Analysis Support qualitative and quantitative decision analysis and trades

Decision Definition Elicit decision definition (e.g., frame the decision, identify decisionobjectives, develop evaluation framework)

Situational Awareness Provide situational awareness

Decision Points Notify user at decision points (e.g., triggers)

Decision Context Provide decision context with decision notification (e.g., decision

diary)

Qualitative Analysis Support qualitative decision priority assignment and judgments

Tacit Knowledge Enable tacit knowledge retrieval (e.g., collaboration/networking,yellow pages)

Group Decision-making Enable collaborative or group decision-making

Implementation Planning Enable decision implementation planning

Expert System Support Expert System aided decision-making

N Decision Tracking Tracks decision trees and linkages, maps potential decision impacts,provides feedback on decision success or failure, and provides clearlystated decision authority and accountability trails.

N Decision Reporting and Archival Reports and archives decision-making material f with standardreporting / analysis products using aligned knowledge managementpractices and procedures.•High-empowered respondents valued actionable intelligence

(effective in dynamic environments)

•Statistically significant difference high and medium empowerment

•High-empowered respondents valued actionable intelligence(effective in dynamic environments)


Evaluation of Agile Knowledge based Enterprise Implicatio



06/10/10 15



Decision Implementation CapabilitiesAnalysis Overview

• All proposed capabilities rated highly desirable or essential• High Empowerment group identified Risk Management and Monitor

Progress of higher importance

• All proposed capabilities rated highly desirable or essential• High Empowerment group identified Risk Management and Monitor

Progress of higher importance

0 .0 0 0 .2 0 0 .4 0 0 .6 0 0 .8 0 1 . 0 0

I m p li c it K n o w l e d g e

D e c i s io n N o t i fic a t io n

A c c e s s P la n s

R is k M a n a g e m e n t

M o n i t o r P r o g r e s s

N o t if y C o n t e x t C h a n g e

C a p t u r e In n o v a t io n

C a p t u r e L e s s o n s L e a r n e d

% F r e q u e n c y L i k e rt

E s s e n t ia l H ig h ly D e s ira b leD es ira b le N o O p in ion N ot N e e d

1/4 3/4Activity Description

Essenti

alFrequency

ssential

Risk Management35 43

Decision Notification33 41

Capture LessonsLearned

32 40

Notify ContextChanges

27 33

Monitor Progress17 21

Access Plans14 17

Implicit Knowledge12 15

Capture Innovation12 15




06/10/10 16



Decision Implementation Vetted PrioritizedCapabilities


Risk Management Facilitate effective risk management (e.g., risk identification, tracking,

mitigation evaluation)

Decision Notification Provide timely decision notification to impacted staff

Capture Lessons Learned Leverage organizational learning with capture of lessons learned andbest practices

Notify Context Changes (S) Notify of decision context changes

Monitor Progress (S) Monitor implementation progress and notify with respect to plan

Access Plans Provide access to decision implementation plans

Implicit Knowledge (S) Captures and provides implicit knowledge to support implementation.

Capture Innovation (S) Enable organizational learning through capture of serendipityinnovations

N Implementation QuantitativeModeling

Modeling from values to simulation to evaluate problems at hand

N CCM Change control management of processes, products, and services.

N Implementation Collaboration Implementation team support for collaboration

N Interoperable Implementation Tools

For diverse groups and locations, especially in multi-company teamsprovide ability to integrate any separate tools used to implementdecisions

N Customer-friendly Visualization Process visible to customer

N Asset Visualization & Tracking Visualization of current and projected manpower / tasking intensity

and critical failure points








06/10/10 17



0.00 0.20 0.40 0.60 0.80 1.00

Reliable Knowledge

User-friendly Access

Explict Knowledge Capture

Domain-specific Repository

Organization-specific Repository

Skill-specific Training

J ust-in-time Knowledge

Collaborative

Knowledge Environment

Domain-specific Networking

Control & Security

Knowledge Elicitation

% Frequency Likert Score

Essent ia l Highly Desirab le Desirab le No Opin ion Not Needed

1/4 3/4

Knowledge Management CapabilitiesAnalysis Overview

Activity Description

Essential

Frequency

ssential

Reliable Knowledge 35 43

User-friendly Access 30 37

Control and Security 26 32

Organization-specificRepository

24 30

Collaborative

KnowledgeEnvironment

22 27

Explicit KnowledgeCapture

21 26

Knowledge Elicitation 20 25

Just-in-time Knowledge 19 23

Domain-specificRepository

18 22

Domain-specificNetworking 16 20

Skill-specific Training 9 11

• All proposed capabilities rated highly desirable or essential• High Empowerment group identified Control and Security,

Knowledge Elicitation, and Domain-specific Repository of higher

importance

• All proposed capabilities rated highly desirable or essential• High Empowerment group identified Control and Security,

Knowledge Elicitation, and Domain-specific Repository of higher

importance

Evaluation of Agile Knowledge-based Enterprise Implicatio



06/10/10 18



Knowledge Management Vetted PrioritizedCapabilities


Reliable Knowledge Provide a reliable knowledge source

User-friendly Access Ensure user-friendly access to knowledge

Control & Security Provide assured access control & security to Enterprise InformationPortals

Organization-specific Repository Provide organization-specific knowledge repository (e.g. Processes,Forms)

Collaborative KnowledgeEnvironment

Support collaborative knowledge environment

Explicit Knowledge Capture Facilitate explicit knowledge capture

Knowledge Elicitation Support Knowledge elicitation to support decisions

Just-in-time Knowledge Allow Just-in-time Knowledge pull to minimize information overload

Domain-specific Repository Provide domain specific knowledge repository (e.g. Journals, WhitePapers)

Domain-specific Networking Enable domain-specific networking

Skill-specific Training Facilitate skill specific training

N Project Collaboration Map Id related developments objectives minimize duplication & enhancecollaboration

N Facilitate Tacit Knowledge captureTacit knowledge repositories are not like explicit knowledgerepositories

N Knowledge Map Sophistication built in to maximize Knowledge Workers efficiency&information literacy by providing directions to access Explicit & TacitKnowledge sources








06/10/10 19



Decision Support Capabilities Observations

Decision support consists of decision-making, decision implementation, and

knowledge management in Agile Knowledge-based EnterprisesHighest ranked capabilities are not the historical DSS focus Knowledge capabilities key to DSS success

Early identification, management, and mitigation of potential issues or crises is veryimportant for Agile Enterprise success

Perceived value in developing and providing decision triggers such as events,performance variances, and outcomes

Different capability priorities exist for high and other empowerment groupsDecision support requires integration into the enterprise infrastructure to supporttimely analysis and response

Knowledge workers need realistic and adaptable quantitative analysis techniques

The enterprise needs configuration control of decisions, business processes, andknowledge to ensure consistency and reduce confusion

The enterprise requires effective communication of decision with those whoimplement or are affected by it




06/10/10 20

Evaluation of Agile Knowledge based Enterprise Implicatiofor Intelligence Age Decision Support Systems - Vandergri


AgileE n

terprise

Interne

t

Structured

Data

&Information

Unstru

cture

dData

&Information

VisibleWeb

Invisible

Web

Usenet

P2P

ExplicitKno

wledge

Resource Planning

External Environment& Customer Awareness

Supply Chain Mgmt

OnlineTransactional

Databases

DataWarehouse

Datamart

Datamart

Business Modeling Systems

Document Management

Content Management

Authoring

Implementation Metrics

TacitKnow

l edge

Collaboration

Social Network

Communitiesof Practice

YellowPages

DSSToolsAnalysis

Reports

MentoringLearning

StorytellingInterviews

Groupw

are

Distance LearningWeb-based Training

Help-desk ApplicationsExpert SystemsArtificial IntelligenceTopic and Page Tracking

•Reports•Best Practices

•Manuals•Proposals & Contracts

•Presentations•Drawings•Analysis

•Audio Files•Video Files

•E-mail•Correspondence•Newsletters

Full Text

Searches

Archives

•Web Search Engines•Enterprise Information Portal (Intranet)•Government Web Sites•Refereed Web Sites

•Consumer Discussions•Domain Specific Discussions

•Chat & Instant Messaging•Message Boards•Databases•Online Content Archives

•Emerging Applications

•Catalogs•Web Logs•Reviews, Ratings•News, Publications, Magazines

Knowledge Generation

Knowle

dge

Elicitat

ion

Knowle

dge

Captu

re

Workflow

SearchEngines

DataMining

Collaboratio

n

Knowledge-based CAD

Performance Tracking

Analytical Apps

- Models

- Heuristics

- Statistics

- Expert Systems

- Artificial IntelligenceWarehousin

g

IntelligentAgents

• Polls• Gallery

Research Contribution and Significance

Contributions Defines Agile Knowledge-based Enterprise architecture with

a systematic approach

Produces a vetted Decision Support capabilities set

Assesses empowerment maturity of an organizationSignificance

A complexity theory based Agile Enterprise architecture thatprovides an integrated set of DSS capabilities

Targeted Agile Enterprises acquisition improves ROI

Contributions

Defines Agile Knowledge-based Enterprise architecture witha systematic approach

Produces a vetted Decision Support capabilities set

Assesses empowerment maturity of an organization

Significance

A complexity theory based Agile Enterprise architecture thatprovides an integrated set of DSS capabilities

Targeted Agile Enterprises acquisition improves ROI




06/10/10 21



QUESTIONS

Agile Enterprise

Decision-making

KnowledgeManagement

DecisionImplementation

ValueProducts

&Services

Fitness Landscape

Concept of Operations OV-1




06/10/10 22


Copyright 2005 – Linda J Vandergriff

Recommendations

1.Build upon Management Complexity Theory work

2.Provide research findings and conclusions to a wider audience

3.Ensure architecture context and complexity theory familiarity for those

evaluating and developing capabilities

4.Use structured Agile Knowledge-based Enterprise for coherent acquisitions

5. Integrate isolated research with Complexity Theory based business model

Learning Enterprises

Innovative Enterprises

Adaptive Enterprises

1.Develop needed operational capabilities and provide adequate training

2.Explore Reliable Knowledge processes for capture, vetting, sharing, and

maintenance

Decision Support

Knowledge

Management

Human Capital

presentation from october 11, 2005 dinner meeting

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