presentation for sbs - 2013 03 05 - 001 - public
TRANSCRIPT
The Future of Renewable EnergiesFocus on Emerging Markets
Steve Laycock5th March 2013
All info confidential and proprietary
avenue de la Raquette 12a1150 [email protected]
3 May 2023 aeltari - all info confidential and proprietary 2
Aeltari
• Astrophysics• Management of Large High Tech
International Projects
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Aeltari Stuff
• PV Project Development• ITEA2 Project -- ENERFICIENCY• Consultancy:
– High-tech (eg superconducting magnets)– Renewables – PV– Smart Cities– Solar Lighting
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Presentation Outline
AeltariWhy we should invest in renewables? Atmosphere and climate €, £, $, ¥What we did Invest in the futureWhere are we nowAeltari – a project
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Why Renewables – The Fundamentals
Maximize
NPV= C0 + Σ Ct / ( 1 + r)t
What is t? What is r?
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Some planets
Planet Distance (from Sun) Mean Temperature Comments
Mercury 58,000,000 km 167°C (467°C, to -183°C)
NO atmosphere Sees cold space
Venus 108,000,000 km 462°C Dense atmosphereHOT as Hell
Earth 150,000,000 km 14.6°C (13.9°C 100 years ago)
Lovely
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Greenhouse Effect
• Sunlight comes in – warms planet• Infrared (heat) can’t get out
Gas
Formula
Contribution(%)
Water vapour H2O 60%
Carbon dioxide
CO2 26%
Methane CH4 6%
Ozone O3 8%
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C02 & Climate a Correlation?
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Maximise NPV
NPV = C0 + ΣCt / ( 1 + r)t
tmax & r do you care about future generations?
C0 Investments in renewables
Future cash flows, Ct will be much smaller if we
significantly damage the Earth
Tragedy of the Commons?
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Need Energy
• Photovoltaic very simple (solid state) but variable output, large scale, small scale & can be local
• Solar thermal great value, local
• Wind aesthetics (NIMBYs) & mechanics, best when large
• Geothermal super depending on the place
• Hydro large sources used up? Small hydro!
• Wave exciting but difficult
• Tide needs more study
• Biomass depends on details
• Nuclear could make a great comeback
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Make Investments Now
• Make renewables less expensive• Learning curve – economies of scale• Cost of PV decreasing rapidly
now €0.60/Wp (efficiency 20%)
• 91GWp of PV installed -- mainstream
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Worldwide
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Consequences
Without factoring in the hidden costs of fossil fuels (climate, large armies, political costs)
– Renewables start to become a “no brainer”– Lower cost than conventional!– Deconstructed supply side– Need for energy storage– Long distance energy transport– Smarter grids, buildings, transport etc
One example
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Incomes
Installed Power 125.0 kWp Proportion of Bank Loan 0.0%Energy Yield 1800 kWh/kWp/y Interest Rate 5.5% /year
Bank Loan Period 20 years Average Value 0.00 €/MWhPrice per Watt Peak 3.00 €/Wp First repayment after 1 years Green Cert Value (GCV) 0.00 €/MWh
Total Investment 375,000.00 € NPV Discount Rate 7.0% GC Period (GCP) 25 YearsSubsidised €/Wp 3 €/Wp
Investment after subsidy 375,000.00 € Electricity price to client 0.1000 €/kWhBank loan amount 0.00 € Electricity price to grid 0.2600 €/kWh
Land 0.00 €/y Cash invested 375,000.00 € % to grid 100%Land Cost Inflation 2.0% /year Mean Electricity Price 0.2600 €/kWh
Amortisation time 15 years Electricity Price Inflation 3.00% /yearMaintenance 0.50% of total/year Module Degradation 0.50% /year
Insurance 0.30% of total/year Minimum DSCR Required 1.20General Inflation 2.0% /year DSCR OK? #DIV/0! Investment subsidy 0%First year costs 3,000.00 € Minimum DSCR Found #DIV/0! Investment subsidy 0.00 €
Corporate tax 0.00% Investment subsidy paid at 0 year(s)
Year NPV IRR Year NPV IRR Year NPV IRR0 -375,000.00 €1 -323,130.84 € -85.2% 16 238,567.90 € 14.9% 31 533,827.67 € 17.1%2 -273,437.66 € -53.0% 17 264,692.28 € 15.3% 32 547,557.97 € 17.1%3 -225,829.23 € -30.8% 18 289,720.22 € 15.6% 33 560,711.79 € 17.1%4 -180,218.15 € -16.8% 19 313,697.71 € 15.9% 34 573,313.31 € 17.2%5 -136,520.67 € -7.7% 20 336,668.81 € 16.1% 35 585,385.72 € 17.2%6 -94,656.57 € -1.5% 21 358,675.74 € 16.3% 36 596,951.21 € 17.2%7 -54,548.98 € 2.8% 22 379,758.93 € 16.4% 37 608,031.06 € 17.2%8 -16,124.24 € 5.9% 23 399,957.15 € 16.5% 38 618,645.65 € 17.2%9 20,688.21 € 8.2% 24 419,307.51 € 16.6% 39 628,814.51 € 17.2%
10 55,955.98 € 10.0% 25 437,845.59 € 16.7% 40 638,556.35 € 17.2%11 89,743.84 € 11.4% 26 455,605.45 € 16.8%12 122,113.86 € 12.4% 27 472,619.76 € 16.9%13 153,125.48 € 13.3% 28 488,919.79 € 16.9%14 182,835.70 € 13.9% 29 504,535.51 € 17.0%15 211,299.07 € 14.5% 30 519,495.64 € 17.0%
PV Plant Properties & Costs Financing and NPV
Give Data
-95.0%
-85.0%
-75.0%
-65.0%
-55.0%
-45.0%
-35.0%
-25.0%
-15.0%
-5.0%
5.0%
15.0%
25.0%
-400,000.00 €
-200,000.00 €
- €
200,000.00 €
400,000.00 €
600,000.00 €
800,000.00 €
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40
Value after Taxes
NPV
IRR
€/MWh for Years
Thank you
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Dr Steven [email protected]+32 477 32 27 46+32 2 880 94 86
avenue de la Raquette 12a1150 [email protected]