presentation dex kotze- global march for elephants and ......1" "!! " "...
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South Africa’s rhino horn shortfall is over 370 tons per year
By Dex Kotze
Comments in November 2014 by officials from the Department of Environmental Affairs (DEA) that South Africa is seeing success in curbing rhino poaching are misleading as the death toll mounts relentlessly, with 1215 rhinos slaughtered in 2014, far above the number of 1004 seen in 2013. Already over 205 rhinos have been killed in South Africa in 2015. The DEA’s absence from the London Wildlife Conference earlier in 2014 and President Zuma’s failure in August to attend a plenary session combatting wildlife crime in Washington whilst he was at the US-‐Africa summit strengthens opinion that the government has adopted a stance in favour of rhino horn trade. The DEA recently stated “there's very little we can do about the belief in the use of rhino horn that exists in other countries. Legalisation would be a more medium-‐term solution.
Does this department have any vision beyond the medium term and has it accurately considered the potential everlasting effects of such a catastrophic decision? The exponential growth of Asian economies, coupled with the proliferation of China’s presence in the African continent (China-‐Africa trade reached $198 billion in 2012) may just be a component of the government’s obeisance to China’s economic dominance. A species on the brink of yet another catastrophe can ill afford miscalculated decisions and hidden agendas.
South Africa owns roughly 83% of the world’s rhino populations and has lost nearly 4000 rhinos since the inception of the poaching crisis in 2008. This pales into insignificance if one considers that Africa lost on average 5021 black rhinos a year for the 10 years between 1970 and 1980, when 65 000 of these iconic animals were hunted and poached ad nauseam and only 14785 were left in the African wilderness. Today fewer than 4800 black rhinos survive in the wild.
History of black rhino trade
• In a TRAFFIC report from 1992 (attached) it is documented that 62 000 black rhinos disappeared from East Africa (Kenya, Tanzania and Uganda) between 1972 and 1992. The report highlights oficial export figures of black rhinon horn to total 56 694 kg between 1949 and 1976 to the following countries:
• Hong Kong 23,852 Kg • SouthYemen 9, 007 kg • Zanzibar 8,101 kg • China 7,619 kg
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• US 2,642 kg • UK 1,686 kg • Japan 1,601 kg • Others 2,186 kg • Total 56,694 kg
The report also highlights mismatched figures between official export data from East Africa and import data from Japan being 4 to 12 times more, with the conclusion that smuggling was rife to cirmumvent import taxes in an era before the creation of CITES and the rhino horn trade ban. Simlilarly the mismatches between declared exports from East Africa to South Yemen and declared minimum imports to North Yemen between 1969 and 1977 total 22 645 kg. One main rhino horn trader in Sanaa, the capital of North Yemen kept records of volumes in the period when horn could be legally imported. He monopolised the two thirds of the trade in Yemen and his records are exact from 1980 to 1986. The report highlights this one Yemeni trader to have claimed 36 000 kg representing the death of a minimum of 12 750 black rhinos.
Between the years 1849 -‐1895, 11 000kg a year, equal to about 170 000 black rhinos disappeared from East Africa.
Taiwan’s declared imports between 1966 and 1985 totalled 9 522 kg and South Korea between 1970 and 1983 were 2 857 kg.
Thgese figures of black rhino horn trade are mostly when trade was legal, CITES did not exists , the world population was less than half it is currently, there were no online platforms reaching billions of people and most importantly China’s population was half of its current population where the vast majority were extremely poor.
South Africa needs a two third majority vote of all 180 CITES members
A legalised trade in rhino horn can only be approved if two thirds of all members of the Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species of Wild Fauna and Flora (CITES) agree to it. South Africa’s government appears to apply for legalised trade when it hosts the next Conference of the Parties (CoP) of CITES in 2016. Global efforts have been underway for numerous years to eradicate the use of rhino horn in Asia. However, it is highly doubtful that the required majority will be obtained. Even if the required two-‐thirds majority of member countries agree to legalised trade, it will take more than 8 years to create the necessary mechanics and legislation around the world to enact legalised trade. Over the last two years alone, more than 2000 rhinos have been killed. South Africa’s poor record of governance and control of corruption at the highest level under President Zuma is a major obstacle for a legalised trade to work. Stockpiles of rhino horn worth millions have already been stolen from government offices where safe custody, security alarms and electric fences were blatantly absent.
The government and pro-‐trade lobby’s concept of a ”transparent” central selling organization regulating rhino horn trade is a pipedream that could never curb illicit rhino horn trade. Comparing this model to the CSO that the diamond industry created many years ago is naïve. Illicit diamond trading continues throughout the world and criminal syndicates in South Africa are targeting jewellery stores on a weekly basis. Shocking statistics by the Consumer Goods Council of South Africa for 2014 show a monthly average of 73 retail robberies across the country for the first 10 months of 2014, a large proportion being retail jewellers.
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Nations who consume rhino horn boast a population of 1.49 billion people. The populations of China, Vietnam, Thailand, Hong Kong and Taiwan are expected to grow to just over 1.7 billion people in 11 years’ time
There are about 11 000 Ultra High Net Worth millionaires in China today-‐ people with wealth in excess of $30 million, expected to grow to 15 000 in the next 8 years. China will add $1 trillion to global GDP every year this decade. By 2022 China will have more billionaires than the UK, France, Switzerland and Russia combined.
Although hundreds of organisations are working tirelessly around the globe on demand reduction campaigns, the vastness of China’s populations still reflects that most Chinese are under the impression that rhino populations in Africa are omnipresent and are unaware of Africa’s poaching crisis and the scourge of illegal wildlife trafficking, estimated in excess of $20 billion per year.
China has roughly 120 million affluent people, more than double the number of South Africa’s population. By 2020 this group will grow to 280 million, their spending power growing fivefold to $3.1 trillion, equal to 35% of China’s total consumption.
As recently as 2000, only 4 percent of urban households in China were middle class. By 2012, that share had soared to over two thirds. Presently there are 250 million middle class consumers in China. By 2022 China’s middle class will swell to 630 million, the upper middle class will account for 54 percent of all urban households and generate just under half of total Chinese private consumption.
The animal welfare debate of China’s disregard for all animals, be it bear bile farming, tiger bone farming or massacres of dogs has continued for decades. Raping another continent’s natural resources of wildlife leaves no indelible consciousness amongst a political elite that is unwavering on restoring China as the pivotal axe in the global arena.
China’s Foreign Direct Investment in Africa
The foundations for China’s investments in Africa and extrapolation of natural resources were laid in 1996, when The Forum on China-‐Africa Cooperation (FOCAC) was established in Addis Ababa after President Jiang Zemin gathered with African Presidents. Four years later, China created a $5 billion African development fund, cancelled all outstanding debt and started creating trade and economic zones, built schools, hospitals and infrastructure. Fitch Ratings estimated China’s $67 billion loans to sub –Saharan African countries between 2001 and 2010 to exceed those of the World Bank by $12.5 billion. Unlike the West, China invested in Africa with no strings attached in terms of political dogma exercised by African leaders. China’s approach to labor in Africa robs the continent’s local population of opportunities to earn a living, as thousands of low-‐skilled Chinese migrant workers construct new public buildings. Chinese bidders, who regularly obtain construction tenders on the continent, indirectly receive American aid to Africa. China is exporting its labor, dumping cheap goods, affecting the environment, disregarding local laws, fuelling corruption and empowering some appalling governments.
The ivory factor
It is no surprise that the renewed onslaught against Africa’s elephants, rhinos, pangolins and other wildlife occurred in parallel with China’s entry into African economies. Conservative estimates are that over a million Chinese people live and work in Africa. In a recent report compiled by the Environmental Investigation Agency, it
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is claimed that officials travelling with Chinese President Xi Jinping to Tanzania in 2013 went on a buying spree of illegal ivory, causing prices of ivory in Tanzanian markets to double overnight. The ivory was loaded in diplomatic bags, immune from custom checks.
CITES approved two once–off sales of ivory, in 1999 and again in 2008. At the last sale, about 106 tons of ivory was sold to Japan and China, at a mere $157 per kg. Notwithstanding these stockpiles entering China legally, the poaching of African elephants continues relentlessly. Recent scientific reports have determined that 100 000 elephants were killed over 3 years between 2010 and 2012. Less than 400 000 elephants survive in Africa. Statistics for African elephants are extremely outdated. Fortunately a census that is currently being conducted will be released in mid-‐2015. Evidence exists that the domestic Chinese ivory market is an important driver of poaching and trafficking and unless it is addressed on a global scale, poaching will continue to the detriment of wild elephants. In the online black market in China, raw ivory trades up to $3700 per kilogram and worked ivory as high as $10700 per kilogram.
Conspicuous consumption the death knell for rhino
Proponents in favour of trade conveniently ignore the dynamics of China’s gargantuan populace, Asia’s newfound addiction to conspicuous consumption and obsessive desire for status and prestige. Legalising rhino horn has the potential to create a demand in excess of 370 tons per annum. If legalised, five percent of populations from consuming countries can effortlessly command a mere 5 grams of rhino horn per person per annum, especially in view of the Ferrari factor where wealthy consumers also purchase rhino horn for status and gifts of jewellery and libation cups, besides using it as traditional Chinese medicine. South Africa’s stockpiles of rhino horn are approximately 25 tons. If a rhino’s horn is cut correctly at a certain height without injury to the animal, it can only yield about 3.5 kg every 3 years. There is little doubt Kruger National Park, that houses less than 8000 of South Africa’s rhinos will not dehorn any of its rhino due to nearly 1.5 million tourists flocking to this world renowned park every year. Immediately, available horn for trade will be diminished. According to a study by the Department of Environmental Affairs, “harvesting” of horn in South Africa will yield at maximum 3.6 ton per annum. Neither a once-‐off sale, nor ongoing “farming” of rhino horn will secure sufficient supplies in a market of such enormity.
APEC is committed to conserve wildlife resources and facilitate trade in legally harvested wildlife
In a joint ministerial statement by the Asia-‐Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) Ministers released on 8 November 2014, it was made abundantly clear that APEC is committed to “facilitate trade in legally harvested wildlife.” On 10 November, Mr. John Scanlon, the Secretary-‐general of CITES, released a statement welcoming the APEC Ministerial decision. A few weeks prior, on 20 October 2014, Mr. Scanlon commented that CITES’ resolutions specifically state it does not allow commercial trade in Appendix 1 specimens and that CITES resolution 9.10 recommends that:
Parties dispose of confiscated and accumulated dead specimens of Appendix-‐I species, including parts and derivatives, only for bona fide scientific, educational, enforcement or identification purposes, and save in storage or destroy specimens whose disposal for these purposes is not practicable;
The rhino horn trade debate is unquestionably creating huge divisions globally in the conservation world. CITES has listed 19 nations as being part of the Gang of 19, those countries who are implicitly involved in illegal wildlife trafficking networks. Of the seven Asian countries who are part of the Gang of 19, five are members of APEC.
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CITES has had very little success in convincing members of the Gang of 19 to comply with measures to effectively combat wildlife trafficking. It is rather inappropriate for CITES to commend APEC’s ministerial statement and more deplorable that neither APEC, nor CITES make an attempt to exclude elephants and rhinos from the definition of “legally harvested wildlife”.
Emerging markets
Presently, emerging markets are experiencing similar industrial and urban revolutions that started in the 18th century in England and elsewhere in the developed world in the 19th century. Emerging markets contribute more to global economic growth than developed ones. By 2025, China will have more large companies than either the United States or Europe and more than 45 percent of Fortune 500 companies will be from emerging markets. In 2000 this was just 5 percent. The global population is growing by 65 million a year and nearly half of global GDP will come from these markets in the next 10 years. The emergence of 2 billion consumers who will now have sufficient incomes to support discretionary spending cannot be ignored in major decision making processes of the future of rhinos. The success of leaders’ strategies will depend on their ability to recognise the magnitude and momentum of these markets and not make decisions based on outdated intuitions.
Selling 25 tons of horn stockpiles, similar to ivory stockpiles sold in 1999 and 2008 will have a calamitous effect on rhinos in the wild. Ignorant policymakers who are instrumental in the extinction of a 50 million year old species will leave no legacy for future generations and will remiss in their duties as guardians against the extinction trend of endangered wildlife. The time has come for Minister Molewa to converse with conservationists and business leaders who oppose her department’s single-‐mindedness that will lead to an upsurge in demand and effectively destroy what has been achieved in terms of demand reduction.