presentation by nicolas mueller at 5th workshop on strategic crisis management - oecd
TRANSCRIPT
Swiss Federal Chancellery FCh Federal Crisis Management Training
Early Detection of Potential Crises
Nicolas G. Mueller
Head, Federal Crisis Early Detection & Crisis Management Support
Swiss Federal Chancellery, Presidential Service
5th OECD – FCh WS on Strategic Crisis Management Geneva, May 12th, 2016
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Agenda
1. Methodology (Nicolas Mueller)
2. Crisis Identification (John Tesh)
3. Crisis Analysis / Crisis Exercise (4-5 groups)
(John Tesh, Morten, Nicolas, John Roche)
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What is on the Radar?
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David Snowden‘s Cynefin Framework
„Chaos“
„Complicated“ „Complex“
„Simple“
Break Rules! Stick to Rules!
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Challenges: Understanding vs Politics
Decision by Computation
Decision by Politics
Decision by Inspiration / Heuristics
Decision by Judgement
High Low
High
Low
Agreement over Objectives/Values (Politics)
Certainty about C
auses and Effects (Experts)
Risk-based Management
Discourse-based Management
Resilience + Discourse
Resilience-based Management
Literature:
Freckleton, S. et al: Libra Study, Federal Department for Defense, Protection of the Population and Sports, Berne, 1986
Klinke & Renn: Precautionary principle and discursive strategies: classifying and managing risks. In Journal of Risk Research, vol. 4, p. 159-173, London, 2001
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Eruptive / suddenly occurring Crisis Intensity of C
risis
Time TARGET state
Tolerance limit
Tolerance range, crisis in own area of responsibility
Crisis outside own area of responsibility, in public domain
Emergency
Outbreak
Turning point
Suddenly occurring crisis (emergency) Almost no time for early warning and reaction e.g.: Accident, theft, terrorist attack, earthquake
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Fluctuating occurrence of a Crisis Intensity of C
risis
Time TARGET state
Tolerance limit
Tolerance range, crisis in own area of responsibility
Crisis outside own area of responsibility, in public domain
Outbreak
Turning point
Fluctuating crisis occurrence Experience with this kind of crisis, but crises vary each time e.g.: Development of economy or exchange rates, budget cuts, terrorism, epidemics, flooding, accidents in the chemical industry
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Creeping / incremental Development Intensity of C
risis
Time TARGET state
Tolerance limit
Tolerance range, crisis in own area of responsibility
Crisis outside own area of responsibility, in public domain
Cumulative Effect
Outbreak
Turning point
Creeping development Much time for early warning and detection, but difficult to recognize e.g.: Employee satisfaction, budget overspending, loss of service innovation, ageing IT infrastructure, Global Climate Change
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P. Lagadec’s Rapid Reflection Force
1. What is the crisis all about? Political, ethical aspects? «Crisis behind the crisis»?
2. Actors, networks, stakeholders, hidden agendas
3. Key uncertainties? Cascading Effects? How could the crisis develop (scenarios?)
4. Strategic options (short / medium / long term); Which mistakes should be prevented?
5. Key messages (internal, external, special stakeholders)
Patrick Lagadec et al: Implementing rapid reflection forces, Crisis Response, Vol. 3 Issue 2, 2007 / www.patricklagadec.net Updated togehter with Arjen Boin, Eric Stern, Bengt Sundelius in 2014 in the framework of the OECD HLRF
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Crisis cell vs. Rapid Reflection Force
Rapid Reflection Force: • Group of 5 – 10 people • Integration of diverse perspectives and backgrounds • Creativity, Out-of-the-Box thinking, no taboos
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Pandora Cell – Danish Emergency Mgmt Agency 2014
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Pandora Cell – Frequent Assumption
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Pandora Cell – What if…?
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Agenda
1. Methodology
2. Crisis Identification
3. Crisis Analysis / Crisis Exercise (4-5 groups)
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What is on the Radar?
Europe CIS
4 3
2
1
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Impact in the PESTE domains Crisis Politics Economy Society Technolo
gy Environment
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Degree of Complexity of the Crisis
„Chaos“
„Complicated“ „Complex“
„Simple“
4 2
3
1
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Challenges: Understanding vs Politics
High Low
High
Low
Agreement over Objectives / Values (Politics)
Certainty about C
auses and Effects (Experts)
2
3
1
4
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Crisis Timeline – which Type?
Crisis Type 1 Type 2 Type 3 Type 1
Type 3
Type 2
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Agenda
1. Methodology
2. Crisis Identification
3. Crisis Analysis / Crisis Exercise (4-5 groups)
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Analysis of a potential crisis
1. What is the crisis all about? Political, ethical aspects? «Crisis behind the crisis»?
2. Actors, networks, stakeholders, hidden agendas
3. Key uncertainties? Cascading Effects? How could the crisis develop (scenarios?)
4. Strategic options (short / medium / long term); Which mistakes should be prevented?
5. Key messages (internal, external, special stakeholders)
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Pandora Cell – What if…?
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Presentation of Results
10’ per group
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Discussion
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Reserve Slides: What is done in Switzerland?
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New Tasks in Federal Crisis Management (Government and Administration Organisation Act – 28.09.2012)
Advises and supports the Federal Council concerning the timely detection and the management of crises.
New Presidential Service (ca. 10 Staff) - Diplomatic Advisor - Communication Support (Speeches) - Crisis Early Detection - Crisis Management Advice and Support
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Part of Presidential Service
Crisis Early Detection & Sense Making for Cabinet
Goal: Analysis of Global Trends with a strat. Crisis Potential for Switzerland
Cabinet
Federal Crisis Early Detection & Crisis Mgmt Support
Sour
ces
Industry / Insurance
Ministries / Offices
Univ. / Think Tanks Federal Intel Services
Advisory Group (key Partners /
Sources)
- Quarterly Situation Reports - Show Need for Action - Crisis Alerts (via President) - Advice & Support in a Crisis
Crisis Prevention Crisis Management
Semantic Web Tech: (Expert Blogs / Fori), “Wisdom of Crowds”
News Monitoring
Ministries / Offices
Prevention / Mitigation
Private Intel Services
Intl. Organizations
Expert Community Input for Scenarios
and Reports Specific requests
for Information Reports
and Alerts
Federal Risk Mgmt
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Federal Crisis Management Support / Advisory Services available in a Crisis to the Swiss President or to any Federal Crisis Cell mandated by the Cabinet:
3. Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (‘SAGE’)
Advice concerning technical and scientific aspects of the crisis
1. Crisis Counsellor / critical observer (‘King’s fool’)
Input: ‘Out-of-the-box’ thinking, Asking questions, Lessons from other crises, CM methodology, network of experts and partners
2. ’Rapid Reflection Force’ „Sense making“ for complex crises, focus on complexity, cascading effects