preliminary wave energy hindcast results for the circum-arctic region preliminary wave energy...
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Preliminary wave energy hindcast results for the circum-arctic regionPreliminary wave energy hindcast results for the circum-arctic region
David E. AtkinsonInternational Arctic Research Center / Atmospheric Sciences DepartmentUniversity of Alaska Fairbanks
David E. AtkinsonInternational Arctic Research Center / Atmospheric Sciences DepartmentUniversity of Alaska Fairbanks
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To begin with:To begin with:
> Understand the impact of waves
> Understand the importance of storms
- to drive waves
- to drive surges
Examine storm climatology results
> Understand the impact of waves
> Understand the importance of storms
- to drive waves
- to drive surges
Examine storm climatology results
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Atlantic track is prominent at circum-polar scale
David E. AtkinsonIARC/Atm. Sci., University of Alaska FairbanksA
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ACD zones, weather station locations
Results from Arctic Coastal Dynamics projectResults from Arctic Coastal Dynamics project
David E. AtkinsonIARC/Atm. Sci., University of Alaska FairbanksA
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Storm countsStorm counts
David E. AtkinsonIARC/Atm. Sci., University of Alaska Fairbanks
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
1952
1954
1956
1958
1960
1962
1964
1966
1968
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
me
an
# e
ve
nts
/OW
se
as
on
BN
Kar
Lap
ESS
Chu
Beau
1975Storm counts by sector
Trends in storm countsTrends in storm counts
David E. AtkinsonIARC/Atm. Sci., University of Alaska Fairbanks
- no strong trend
Other influences on coastal erosionOther influences on coastal erosion
In frozen regions must consider
Sea ice
Permafrost
In frozen regions must consider
Sea ice
Permafrost
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Trends in open water season length, 1950 - 2000(model initialized with observations)
Trends in open water season length, 1950 - 2000(model initialized with observations)
David E. AtkinsonIARC/Atm. Sci., University of Alaska Fairbanks
Melt season increasingReduced sea ice cover
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-2.0
-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
-4.0 -3.0 -2.0 -1.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0
R2 = 0.33 F-stat = 11.8, Pr>F = 0.002
X = (Normallized T + Normallized Energy) Y = (Normallized Erosion)
Results from western Kara Sea coast(S. Ogorodov, Moscow State University)
- influence of wave energy and temperature in permafrost coastal zones
Results from western Kara Sea coast(S. Ogorodov, Moscow State University)
- influence of wave energy and temperature in permafrost coastal zones
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Wave energy climatologies - impetusWave energy climatologies - impetus
> Wave energy principle forcing agent
> Much of the circum-polar (AK) coastal zone susceptible to erosion
> Problem is not easy – various parameters that must be considered
- shallow zones
- sea ice
* ice on/off dates controls wave access
* position of ice offshore controls fetch
(presence of floating ice also modifies wave energy)
> Coastal process models require wave energy input (I.e., and not wind)
> Engineering issues
> Wave energy principle forcing agent
> Much of the circum-polar (AK) coastal zone susceptible to erosion
> Problem is not easy – various parameters that must be considered
- shallow zones
- sea ice
* ice on/off dates controls wave access
* position of ice offshore controls fetch
(presence of floating ice also modifies wave energy)
> Coastal process models require wave energy input (I.e., and not wind)
> Engineering issues
David E. AtkinsonIARC/Atm. Sci., University of Alaska FairbanksA
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Desire: develop a system that will translate winds into wave energy
Driving winds – gridded is desirable
- North American Regional Reanalysis for AK (32 km)
- AOGCM for work with prediction scenarios
> Generate climatological wave fields
- monthly totals
- annual totals
- period means and trends (1979-2003)
Provide to coastal dymanics researchers, but
can also assess contribution of ice
Desire: develop a system that will translate winds into wave energy
Driving winds – gridded is desirable
- North American Regional Reanalysis for AK (32 km)
- AOGCM for work with prediction scenarios
> Generate climatological wave fields
- monthly totals
- annual totals
- period means and trends (1979-2003)
Provide to coastal dymanics researchers, but
can also assess contribution of ice
Scope and ApproachScope and Approach
David E. AtkinsonIARC/Atm. Sci., University of Alaska FairbanksA
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Wave energy calculation
- 1st order linear (Airy) approximation
> Coastal Engineering Manual and Technical
Reference for the Automated Coastal Engineering System
(USArmy Corps of Engineers)
> suitable for most applications
> Represents a starting point only
Wave energy calculation
- 1st order linear (Airy) approximation
> Coastal Engineering Manual and Technical
Reference for the Automated Coastal Engineering System
(USArmy Corps of Engineers)
> suitable for most applications
> Represents a starting point only
Scope and ApproachScope and Approach
David E. AtkinsonIARC/Atm. Sci., University of Alaska FairbanksA
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Wind forcing:
- NCEP/NCAR reanalysis, 925 mb to overcome speed problems
- direction limited to 180° (I.e. water side)
Direct forcing approach, not distribution based
Wind forcing:
- NCEP/NCAR reanalysis, 925 mb to overcome speed problems
- direction limited to 180° (I.e. water side)
Direct forcing approach, not distribution based
Scope and ApproachScope and Approach
David E. AtkinsonIARC/Atm. Sci., University of Alaska FairbanksA
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NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis wind speed problemNCEP/NCAR Reanalysis wind speed problem
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NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis wind speed problemNCEP/NCAR Reanalysis wind speed problem
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Scope and ApproachScope and Approach
Depth
- simply specified at 10m
- represents generic shelf zone
Sea ice
- NSIDC extent plots used
- based on ice plots:
> coastal region divided into 12 sectors by longitude
> sectors assigned a binary ice/no ice class
- turned energy on/off for that month
Depth
- simply specified at 10m
- represents generic shelf zone
Sea ice
- NSIDC extent plots used
- based on ice plots:
> coastal region divided into 12 sectors by longitude
> sectors assigned a binary ice/no ice class
- turned energy on/off for that month
David E. AtkinsonIARC/Atm. Sci., University of Alaska FairbanksA
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NSIDC Sea Ice extent from passive microwaveNSIDC Sea Ice extent from passive microwave
ACD zones, weather station locations
Results from Arctic Coastal Dynamics projectResults from Arctic Coastal Dynamics project
David E. AtkinsonIARC/Atm. Sci., University of Alaska Fairbanks
1
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5678
9
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4
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No depth variation
Winds do not catch all events (spatial resolution)
Ice sector approximation
Ice content (binary approach) coarse
Spatial resoution coarse
Orientation of wind energy wrt coastline crude (hemisphere approach)
No depth variation
Winds do not catch all events (spatial resolution)
Ice sector approximation
Ice content (binary approach) coarse
Spatial resoution coarse
Orientation of wind energy wrt coastline crude (hemisphere approach)
LimitationsLimitations
David E. AtkinsonIARC/Atm. Sci., University of Alaska FairbanksA
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David E. AtkinsonIARC/Atm. Sci., University of Alaska Fairbanks
1979 total1979 total
ICE No ICE
David E. AtkinsonIARC/Atm. Sci., University of Alaska Fairbanks
1998 total1998 total
ICE No ICE
David E. AtkinsonIARC/Atm. Sci., University of Alaska Fairbanks
1979 – 2003 mean1979 – 2003 mean
ICE No ICE
David E. AtkinsonIARC/Atm. Sci., University of Alaska Fairbanks
1979 – 2003 trends1979 – 2003 trends
ICE No ICE
> Increase wind forcing resolution
> Introduce local coastal orientation
> Variable depth
> Introduce variable ice concentrations, drop sector approach
> Comparisons with existing observed/modeled information
(e.g. Ogorodov for Pechora Sea)
> Increase wind forcing resolution
> Introduce local coastal orientation
> Variable depth
> Introduce variable ice concentrations, drop sector approach
> Comparisons with existing observed/modeled information
(e.g. Ogorodov for Pechora Sea)
Next steps/improvementsNext steps/improvements
David E. AtkinsonIARC/Atm. Sci., University of Alaska FairbanksA
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David E. AtkinsonIARC/Atm. Sci., University of Alaska Fairbanks
> Trends in (circumpolar) storminess not simple linear
> Ice (marine and terrestiral) must be explicitly considered for erosion work
> Influence of sea ice for wave energy apparent even for this coarse approach
> Wave energy trends, not just seasonal totals, influenced by sea ice conditions
> Trends in (circumpolar) storminess not simple linear
> Ice (marine and terrestiral) must be explicitly considered for erosion work
> Influence of sea ice for wave energy apparent even for this coarse approach
> Wave energy trends, not just seasonal totals, influenced by sea ice conditions
Conclusions from storm and wave energy work:Conclusions from storm and wave energy work:
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FinFin