predictions 2014: advance & intelligence
DESCRIPTION
What are the key challenges for Tech companies? @dunstewart for more information.TRANSCRIPT
![Page 1: Predictions 2014: Advance & Intelligence](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022042816/55988f071a28aba8128b489b/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Predictions 2014Advance. Intelligence.
![Page 2: Predictions 2014: Advance & Intelligence](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022042816/55988f071a28aba8128b489b/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
Predictions was first published in 2001
![Page 3: Predictions 2014: Advance & Intelligence](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022042816/55988f071a28aba8128b489b/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
Death of the PC
![Page 4: Predictions 2014: Advance & Intelligence](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022042816/55988f071a28aba8128b489b/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
![Page 5: Predictions 2014: Advance & Intelligence](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022042816/55988f071a28aba8128b489b/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
67% at Oct ‘14
![Page 6: Predictions 2014: Advance & Intelligence](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022042816/55988f071a28aba8128b489b/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
Which device is more important to you —that is, which device could you least do without?
(Among respondents who own both a laptop and a tablet)
![Page 7: Predictions 2014: Advance & Intelligence](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022042816/55988f071a28aba8128b489b/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
Global Internet Traffic by Device Type
![Page 8: Predictions 2014: Advance & Intelligence](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022042816/55988f071a28aba8128b489b/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
4K TV
8
![Page 9: Predictions 2014: Advance & Intelligence](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022042816/55988f071a28aba8128b489b/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
![Page 10: Predictions 2014: Advance & Intelligence](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022042816/55988f071a28aba8128b489b/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
![Page 11: Predictions 2014: Advance & Intelligence](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022042816/55988f071a28aba8128b489b/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
11 Join the #Deloittepredicts conversation © Deloitte LLP and affiliated entities.
![Page 12: Predictions 2014: Advance & Intelligence](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022042816/55988f071a28aba8128b489b/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
Smartglasses
![Page 13: Predictions 2014: Advance & Intelligence](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022042816/55988f071a28aba8128b489b/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
You know they are transparent, low-resolution, work only with a smartphone, cost ~$500, and may violate various laws, right?
![Page 14: Predictions 2014: Advance & Intelligence](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022042816/55988f071a28aba8128b489b/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
Smartglasses for smartworkers
![Page 15: Predictions 2014: Advance & Intelligence](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022042816/55988f071a28aba8128b489b/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
Is it time for smartwatches?
![Page 16: Predictions 2014: Advance & Intelligence](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022042816/55988f071a28aba8128b489b/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
But what about fitness trackers?
![Page 17: Predictions 2014: Advance & Intelligence](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022042816/55988f071a28aba8128b489b/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
We have had the decade of the device
![Page 18: Predictions 2014: Advance & Intelligence](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022042816/55988f071a28aba8128b489b/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
$0
$100
$200
$300
$400
$500
$600
$700
$800
$900
99
A
00
A
01
A
02
A
03
A
04
A
05
A
06
A
07
A
08
A
09
A
10
A
11
A
12
A
13
P
14
E
15
E
16
E
17
E
18
E
PCs Smartphones Gaming consoles TVs Tablets
The decade of the device
Bil
lio
ns
![Page 19: Predictions 2014: Advance & Intelligence](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022042816/55988f071a28aba8128b489b/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
Smartphone replacement cycles are getting longer
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013e 2014e
Ha
nds
et
rep
lac
em
en
t c
yc
le in
mo
nths
Source: US data, Recon Analytics, BI Intelligence
![Page 20: Predictions 2014: Advance & Intelligence](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022042816/55988f071a28aba8128b489b/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
03A 04A 05A 06A 07A 08A 09A 10A 11A 12A 13P 14E 15E 16E 17E 18E
5 year trailing CAGR
![Page 21: Predictions 2014: Advance & Intelligence](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022042816/55988f071a28aba8128b489b/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
Less money forhardware means
more money for…
![Page 22: Predictions 2014: Advance & Intelligence](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022042816/55988f071a28aba8128b489b/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
U.S. consumer electronic sales as a percent of global sales of PCs, smartphones,
tablets, TVs and game consoles
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013P 2014E
![Page 23: Predictions 2014: Advance & Intelligence](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022042816/55988f071a28aba8128b489b/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
67%
23%10%
5.1” to 5.9”
6.0” to 6.9”
Phablet ownership breakdown
5.0” to 5.1”
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
![Page 24: Predictions 2014: Advance & Intelligence](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022042816/55988f071a28aba8128b489b/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)
![Page 25: Predictions 2014: Advance & Intelligence](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022042816/55988f071a28aba8128b489b/html5/thumbnails/25.jpg)
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Very likely Somewhat likely Neither likely norunlikely
Somewhat unlikely Very unlikely
After seeing Predictions, how likely are you to spend more money with Deloitte?
(normal distribution)
![Page 26: Predictions 2014: Advance & Intelligence](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022042816/55988f071a28aba8128b489b/html5/thumbnails/26.jpg)
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Very likely Somewhat likely Neither likely norunlikely
Somewhat unlikely I'd rather be attackedby weasels
Thinking about your next mobile device, how likely
are you to purchase a phablet?
(55+ only, n=351)
![Page 27: Predictions 2014: Advance & Intelligence](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022042816/55988f071a28aba8128b489b/html5/thumbnails/27.jpg)
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
18-34 35-54 55+
Likely (T2B)
Very Unlikely (BB)
Phablet intent to purchase as next
mobile device
n=184 n=230 n=129
16%Overall(n=1,032)
46%
![Page 28: Predictions 2014: Advance & Intelligence](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022042816/55988f071a28aba8128b489b/html5/thumbnails/28.jpg)
Phablet intent to purchase as next
mobile device (cont’d)
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
<HS HS Post Sec Univ Grad
Likely (T2B)
Unlikely (BB)
n=72 n=245 n=476 n=239
16%Overall(n=1,032)
46%
![Page 29: Predictions 2014: Advance & Intelligence](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022042816/55988f071a28aba8128b489b/html5/thumbnails/29.jpg)
5.0 - 6.9 inches - phablets <5.0 inches
Phablets will be 25% of the global smartphone market of 1.2 billion devices.
At an ASP of $417, that’s $125 billion in sales.
Global smartphone sales
![Page 30: Predictions 2014: Advance & Intelligence](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022042816/55988f071a28aba8128b489b/html5/thumbnails/30.jpg)
$0
$100
$200
$300
$400
$500
$600
$700
$800
$900
99
A
00
A
01
A
02
A
03
A
04
A
05
A
06
A
07
A
08
A
09
A
10
A
11
A
12
A
13
P
14
E
15
E
16
E
17
E
18
E
PCs Smartphones Gaming consoles TVs Tablets
Putting $125B in context
Bil
lio
ns
![Page 31: Predictions 2014: Advance & Intelligence](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022042816/55988f071a28aba8128b489b/html5/thumbnails/31.jpg)
APEJ portable PC, tablet and phablet shipments,
2011 Q4 - 2013 Q2
0 M
3 M
6 M
9 M
12 M
15 M
18 M
21 M
24 M
4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13
Unit Shipments
Portable PC Tablet Phablet
![Page 32: Predictions 2014: Advance & Intelligence](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022042816/55988f071a28aba8128b489b/html5/thumbnails/32.jpg)
![Page 33: Predictions 2014: Advance & Intelligence](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022042816/55988f071a28aba8128b489b/html5/thumbnails/33.jpg)
Source: The NPD Group, Inc. / Connected Intelligence /
Smartphone Usage Report, 3 months ending July 2013
![Page 34: Predictions 2014: Advance & Intelligence](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022042816/55988f071a28aba8128b489b/html5/thumbnails/34.jpg)
Source: The NPD Group, Inc. / Connected Intelligence /
Smartphone Usage Report, 3 months ending July 2013
![Page 35: Predictions 2014: Advance & Intelligence](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022042816/55988f071a28aba8128b489b/html5/thumbnails/35.jpg)
![Page 36: Predictions 2014: Advance & Intelligence](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022042816/55988f071a28aba8128b489b/html5/thumbnails/36.jpg)
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80%
Germany
France
Netherlands
United States
UK
Japan
Spain
South Korea
Singapore
Proportion of phablet owners having a smaller smartphone too
Source: Deloitte Global Mobile Consumer Survey, Developed countries, May-June 2013
Base: All Smartphone owners: 16, 378, Smartphone owners 12,313, Large smartphone owners 8,269
![Page 37: Predictions 2014: Advance & Intelligence](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022042816/55988f071a28aba8128b489b/html5/thumbnails/37.jpg)
![Page 38: Predictions 2014: Advance & Intelligence](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022042816/55988f071a28aba8128b489b/html5/thumbnails/38.jpg)
27.626.7 27.3
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2011/12 2012/13 2013/14
Hours of traditional TV watched per week by all Canadians aged 2+
![Page 39: Predictions 2014: Advance & Intelligence](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022042816/55988f071a28aba8128b489b/html5/thumbnails/39.jpg)
0–20% Quintile – average hours per week
4.13.8
3.63.4
3.1
5.8 5.9
4.94.6
4.33.9
7.5 7.6 7.5 7.6
7.16.9
7.16.8
6.6
7.1 7.0
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013A 2014E
Av
era
ge
Ho
urs
pe
r W
ee
k
Total TV Eng (0-20%) Total TV French (0-20%)
Source: BBM Canada, P2+, Each year defined by 4 November weeks, M-Su 2a-2a
*PPMs introduced for Total TV Eng in 2009
Adjusted to compare to PPM data
![Page 40: Predictions 2014: Advance & Intelligence](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022042816/55988f071a28aba8128b489b/html5/thumbnails/40.jpg)
![Page 41: Predictions 2014: Advance & Intelligence](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022042816/55988f071a28aba8128b489b/html5/thumbnails/41.jpg)
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
18-34 35-54 55+ Male Female
n=244 n=437 n=351 n=454 n=578
Canadians who currently subscribe to a video subscription service (i.e. Netflix) or are in the free first month
Overall(n=1,032)
19%
![Page 42: Predictions 2014: Advance & Intelligence](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022042816/55988f071a28aba8128b489b/html5/thumbnails/42.jpg)
![Page 43: Predictions 2014: Advance & Intelligence](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022042816/55988f071a28aba8128b489b/html5/thumbnails/43.jpg)
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
<HS HS Post Sec Univ Grad
Current Subs/First Month
Former Subs
Video subscription services (i.e. Netflix)
n=72 n=245 n=476 n=239
Overall(n=1,032)
19%
7%
![Page 44: Predictions 2014: Advance & Intelligence](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022042816/55988f071a28aba8128b489b/html5/thumbnails/44.jpg)
H1 2014 North American Fixed
![Page 45: Predictions 2014: Advance & Intelligence](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022042816/55988f071a28aba8128b489b/html5/thumbnails/45.jpg)
![Page 46: Predictions 2014: Advance & Intelligence](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022042816/55988f071a28aba8128b489b/html5/thumbnails/46.jpg)
![Page 47: Predictions 2014: Advance & Intelligence](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022042816/55988f071a28aba8128b489b/html5/thumbnails/47.jpg)
![Page 48: Predictions 2014: Advance & Intelligence](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022042816/55988f071a28aba8128b489b/html5/thumbnails/48.jpg)
![Page 49: Predictions 2014: Advance & Intelligence](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022042816/55988f071a28aba8128b489b/html5/thumbnails/49.jpg)
![Page 50: Predictions 2014: Advance & Intelligence](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022042816/55988f071a28aba8128b489b/html5/thumbnails/50.jpg)
![Page 51: Predictions 2014: Advance & Intelligence](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022042816/55988f071a28aba8128b489b/html5/thumbnails/51.jpg)
![Page 52: Predictions 2014: Advance & Intelligence](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022042816/55988f071a28aba8128b489b/html5/thumbnails/52.jpg)
![Page 53: Predictions 2014: Advance & Intelligence](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022042816/55988f071a28aba8128b489b/html5/thumbnails/53.jpg)
TMT Predictions tailored events
Duncan Stewart can deliver a presentation for your office/industry.
•Email Duncan: [email protected]
•Follow him on Twitter: @dunstewart
•Connect on LinkedIn
•Subscribe to him on Facebook
•Read his blog: dunstewart.wordpress.com