insights, predictions, and actions - test science · 2018-03-20 · insights, predictions, and...
TRANSCRIPT
Insights, Predict ions, and Act ions
Descript ive Definit ions of Data Science, Machine Learning, and Art ificial Intelligence
Andrew Flack
The terms “Data Science,” “Machine Learning,” and “Art ificial Intelligence” are increasingly common.
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DoD must stay on the cut t ing edge in technology, culture, operat ions, and processes.
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Defense Innovation Advisory Board
Recommendat ion 5: Catalyze Innovat ions in Art if icial Intel l igence and Machine Learning
“Textbook” definit ions are not terribly helpful.
4http:/ / fortune.com/ ai-artificial- intelligence-deep-machine-learning/
Textbook definit ions are not terribly helpful.
5https:/ / steemit.com/ education/ @agmakosz/ the-approaching-impact-of-a-i-on-the-education-industry
Is it just market ing?
6https:/ / twitter.com/ xaprb/ status/ 930674776317849600
Forget the formal definit ions and hierarchies.
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What does a practitioner in each discipline actually do?
Data Science Produces InsightsMachine Learning Makes Predict ions
Art ificial Intelligence Produces Act ions
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Data science is the process of obtaining, t ransforming, analyzing, and communicat ing data to answer a quest ion.
Data Question
Raw Data
Tidy Data
Data Analysis
• Descriptive, exploratory, predictive, inferential, causal, or mechanistic
Data Product
• Business question / analytical question
• Collecting, scraping
• Cleansing, preparation
• Report, visualization, model, tool, other decision aid
Who is a data scient ist?
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Head of IT Analyst
The Num be rCrunche r
The Sale spe rson
Com pute r Scie nce
Profe ssor
Sta tis tics Profe ssor
Hot Air GoodConsultant
The Data Ne rd
The Hacke r
R Core Te am
The IT Guy
The Accountant
The Data
Scie ntis t
Com m unication
Statis tics Program m ing
Busine ss
Who is a data scient ist?
Isn’t this just an Operat ions Research / Systems Analyst (ORSA)? Not quite …
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No Data Some Data “Big Data”
Op e ra tions Re se a rch
Da ta Sc ie nce
“Data Science” in Defense
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Is this friendly activity (cordon and search, raid, road block, etc.) reducing enemy activity?
Compare the number of enemy events, before and after a friendly activity, to see if there is a significant difference.
Data Science in Defense
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Data Science in the wild
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Who are the most profitable customers?
Is there really a difference between profitable customers and the average customer?
Can I characterize customers in some way?
Data Science Produces InsightsMachine Learning Makes Predict ions
Art ificial Intelligence Produces Act ions
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Discover a function 𝒚𝒚=𝒇𝒇(𝒙𝒙) that be st p re d ic ts the value of 𝒚𝒚associate d with e ach value of 𝒙𝒙.
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If the response variable is numeric, we’re doing regression.*
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* In this context, we’re using regression to PREDICT, not to EXPLAIN.
See Shmueli, G. 2010. “To Explain or to Predict?,” Statistical Science (25:3), pp. 289-310.
If the response is categorical, it is a classificat ion task.
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Petal
Sepal
Iris Setosa Iris Versicolor
Find a funct ion that maps each at t ribute set to one of the predefined class labels.
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Find “Learn” a funct ion that maps each at t ribute set to one of the predefined class labels …
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… and generalizes to make accurate predict ions on previously unseen data.
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Separat ion between these disciplines is blurry.
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DataScience
MachineLearning
ArtificialIntelligence
LogisticRegression
Machine Learning in Defense
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Machine Learning in Defense
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“… augment or automate Processing, Exploitation, and Dissemination (PED) for tactical Unmanned Aerial System
(UAS) and Mid-Altitude Full-Motion Video (FMV) …”
“38 classes of objects the department needs to detect”
Machine Learning in the wild
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Data Science Produces InsightsMachine Learning Makes Predict ions
Art ificial Intelligence Produces Act ions
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Rather than teaching computers how to do everything, teach them to learn for themselves.
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Arthur Samuel, a pioneer in Artificial Intelligence, created a program to play checkers.
He was the first to develop a machine that surpassed his ability in a task that he taught it.
Again, separat ion between these disciplines is blurry.
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DeepLearning
DataScience
MachineLearning
ArtificialIntelligence
Art ificial Intelligence in the wild
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Data Science Produces InsightsMachine Learning Makes Predict ions
Art ificial Intelligence Produces Act ions
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