practical techniques for predicting the future
TRANSCRIPT
Practical Techniques for Predicting the Future
Jesse Schell@jesseschellTFNW 2015
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+ =PsychologyTechnology Destiny
CrystalBallSociety.com
5 patterns
Pattern1Foundational Technology
Makes the Biggest Changes
FOUNDATION
Decoration
Mickey Mouse’s First Cartoon?
Steamboat Willie (November, 1928)
Plane Crazy (May, 1928)
Pattern2
The Hype Curve
The Hype Curve
Pattern3
Disruption
Pattern4
Technology Mostly Diverges
Pattern5
History Keeps Repeating
1849!
2011Palmer Luckey(age 20)
1968IvanSutherland
1884NipkowDisk
1927Philo Farnsworth(age 20)
TV
VR
43 Years Later
43 Years Later
Foundational Technology
Makes the Biggest Changes
The Hype Curve
Disruption
Technology Mostly Diverges
History Keeps Repeating5
4
3
1
2
Send your predictions to me!
Thanks!
Find slides at:
JesseSchell.com