ppt 3 - real-world population calamities in 'open-space' conditions
DESCRIPTION
UPDATED - Population collapse in environments that appear to be almost entirely empty? POWERPOINT - Crises even when a population occupies less than 2/1000ths of one percent of a seemingly "vast amount of open space" that appears to remain available? An introduction to climb-and-collapse systems and the "open-space" hypothesis.The above scenarios happen all the time and tend to be the rule as opposed to exceptions - which suggests that we pay more attention to that "late-phase" exponential curve that characterizes human population growth over the past two centuries.Mathematical insights that suggest that "running out of" food, or space, or resources (or anything else), though legitimate, may be distracting us from other dangers.Includes three appendicies with the supporting mathematics and links to other PowerPoint and pdf resources.This PowerPoint addresses human population growth, planetary carrying capacity, and overshoot using actual climb-and-collapse realities in reindeer herds and population explosions of red-tide dinoflagellates. Assesses humanity's current demographics in light of earth's environment and its biospheric machinery. (1) Earth's atmosphere and seas as thin surface films, and (2) Real-world population calamities that routinely occur in environments that appear to remain almost entirely empty, and 99% population die-offs even as the afflicted populations occupy less than 2/1000ths of one percent of the environment that appears to remain theoretically-available to them. And the associated mathematics suggests that humanity's first and foremost limiting factors may not be "running out" of food, resources, space, or anything else - but may be our habit of releasing much, much more than just our biological and metabolic wastes into our surroundings, along with the serious eradication, fragmentation, and physical damage that we are inflicting on earth's biospheric life-support machinery.There are now five presentations in this series: (1) WORLD POPULATION and CORE DEMOGRAPHICS - An Introductory Overview(2) ECOLOGICAL SERVICES and BIOSPHERIC MACHINERY(3) POPULATION-ENVIRONMENT CALAMITIES in "vast open-space conditions?"(4) THIN FILMS - Earth's atmosphere, oceans, and seas(5) EXPONENTIAL AND NON-LINEAR MATHEMATICS IN POPULATION SYSTEMSThis PowerPoint 3 in our Biospherics Literacy 101 collection is made available courtesy of The Wecskaop Project (What Every Citizen Should Know About Our Planet).TRANSCRIPT
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Real-worldpopulation calamities
in
seemingly “empty” environments?
(… possible implications for us…? )
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Imagine a real-worldpopulation of organisms
surrounded by ‘vastamounts of open-space’
in surroundingsthat remain 99.998%
unoccupied
and which, visually-speaking, appears to remain
almost entirely empty
2/1000ths
of one percent
For the population in the above tiny white dot, the moment in time depicted
here was already “too-late”
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End of part two
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One must read population articles and graphs CAREFULLY
Some authors and websites, for example, invite their readers to assume that it is permissible to present a graph of human population growth as an “s-curve”
One must examine such graphs CAREFULLY, however.
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For if we do so, we will notice that some authorscommonly do not BEGIN their graphs until
some recent decade such as the 1950s or 1970s
and then extend them several decades into the futureon the basis of their own
…bring them up to the present…
hopes, wishes, guesstimates, and suppositions
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We note, however, that in SCIENCE it is not generally permissible to
OMIT
9,000 years of population data
in order to “force-fit” one’s data into a morepreferable theoretical outcome
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It is possible and disquieting that the real-world worldwide human
population numbers that actually emerge
could turn out to be
than the contemplated medium-fertility U.N. estimates
shown here
very much larger
Although U.N. “medium-fertility”projections suggest trajectories toward
10 or 11 billion by the end of this century
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Unexpected advances inlife-extension or unexpected
declines in mortality
or if worldwide fertility levelsstall or turn out to be just
½ child per womanhigher
than the U.N.’s“medium-fertility” estimates
Six-fold life-extensions have already been achieved in laboratory organisms
And an equivalent extension in humans would result in healthy, active 500-year-olds
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We could find ourselves headed toward
by the end of this century
(as shown in this graph)
15.8billion
Even tiny fractional such extensions in hum
ans would toss
current U.N
. population projections right out the window
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And since we are now beyond seven billion and
may be headed toward10, 11, 12, 13, 14, or 15.8
billion this century
and since each one ofour billions is
a truly enormousnumber (see appendix)
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Some suggest that statistically-speaking, our “rate” of growth is “slowing” down.
There a potentially-calamitous “untruth” concealed in such assertions, however.
Response 1:
1981 – On a worldwide basis our population is growing larger at 80 million extra persons per year
2011 – On a worldwide basis our population is growing larger at 83 million extra persons per year
Imagine that you are on a bus headed off a cliff at 80 km/hr. The driver, however, who is a statistician, seeks to reassure you by informing you that
although the bus is now closer to the cliff and is now headed off the cliff at 83 km/hr, the ‘RATE’, he says, of increasingly heading off the cliff is “slowing
down” and is on a trajectory that could result in eventual stabilization
Quite reassuring, isn’t it?
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Earth’s natural systems and life-support machinery might beforgiven, perhaps, for not considering that to be “slowing down?”
Response 2:
Back in 1981, Earth’s biospheric life-support machinery was being assaulted, damaged, and eradicated by roughly 4.5 billion persons supplemented by approximately 80 million extra persons per year
Since then, our worldwide totals have grown to more than 7 billion and our assaults, damages, and eradications are now being amplified and supplemented by 83 million extra persons per year
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It is the fault of those silly natural systems, however, for never having taken a statistics course, isn’t it?
Otherwise, if they were so smart, they might realize that all of the damageand eradications that they think they are experiencing are just temporary
illusions?
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Notice that these graphs are quintessential
examples of J-curves
(one of the most dangerous types of graphs in the world)
and since earth’s planetary carrying
capacity for amodern industrialized
humanity is onthe order of
TWO billion or less
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There is a widely-held misperception within our societies that human population growth and overpopulation cannot be truly
serious so long as “vast amounts of open space”appear to remain theoretically-available
Key Ideas so far
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Real-world examples of Climb-and-collapse in population systems
Collapse can and does occur in environments that appear to be almost entirely empty (.. less than 2/1000ths of one percent ..)
Real-world examples of 99% - plus die-offs
A graph of human population growth over the past two centuries appears to be both more-pronounced and more extreme than those seen in either of the cited reindeer examples
Part two– Key Ideas
Su
pp
orti
ng
mat
hem
atic
s is
pos
ted
in
ap
pen
dic
es O
NE
AN
D T
WO
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One would hope that we are collectively smarter thana mindless population of one-celled dinoflagellates
Given the current demographic challenge that these numbers
represent
(and with up to our 10th to 15th billions on-track to arriveby the end of this century)
that routinely show themselves capable of calamity while
occupyingless than 2/1000ths of 1% of the volume in which the population
sample resides
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Invoking sobriety, however,we may actually be following
a trajectory that has aworrisome similarity to that
of the dinoflagellates
because our own species, like the red-tide dinoflagellates of marinehabitats, releases chemical wastes and toxins into our surroundings
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Worse still, from at least one point of view, however, we may actually be on a
trajectory that is worse than thatof the dinoflagellates
and multiple orders of magnitude worse at that
for each dinoflagellate cell releases ONLY itsmetabolic and biological wastes into its surroundings
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In our own case, however, we release not only our biological and
metabolic wastes
but also an unprecedented daily avalanche of societal and industrial
wastes that are worldwidein scope
and amplified by ourever-growing numbers
and increasing industrialization
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Dinoflagellate red-tides are quintessential examples of population calamities arising from the release of wastes Dinoflagellate red-tide calamities, however, arise from their release of cellular and metabolic wastes into their surroundings
Because our own species also releases wastes into its surroundings,we may be following a trajectory that is provocatively similar to thatof an outbreak of dinoflagellate red-tide
1
2
3
Reviewing Several Key Ideas
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Except, of course, our own species supplements its biological and cellular wastes with a daily worldwide avalanche of industrial and societal wastes
(A behavior that no other animals on earth exhibit – and has never previously happened in the entire history of the earth)
And lastly, while deadly outbreaks of dinoflagellate red-tide are localized events, our own population outbreak is a worldwide phenomenon and worldwide in its effects
4
5
. 6
Reviewing Several Key Ideas
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Lastly, but not least, there are these
two graphsof our demographics
which are verymuch like
J-curves on steroids
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Policymakers, academia, and the world’s rising generations of ‘Under-20s’ should accord
emergency-scale attention to these numbers
J-curves…
Biologically-speaking, anything even approaching
15.8 billion constitutes the demographic equivalent
of a collision trajectory with a near-earth asteroid
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First, five additional billions in less than one human lifetime
since 1930
with the potential arrivals of billionsnumbers 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, and 15(and 800 million more after that)
due by the end of this century
on a planet whose biospheric machinery was already beingdamaged at levels of five billion and six billion in 1987 and 1999
and whose planetary carrying capacity for a modern,industrialized humanity is on the order of two billion or less
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sheer physical damageand eradication
alsoremembering the
levels of
that we inflict all around the world
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We also suggest the PowerPoint shown below
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