powerpoint presentationpkl.org.pl/pliki/prezentacja p.bellew 17 sep 2014 warsaw... · 2014. 10....
TRANSCRIPT
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Warsaw – 17 Sep 2014
Peter Bellew
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T h e F u t u r e o f LC C i n Po l a n d
1929 – Polish Aviation Innovation
2014 – A Great year for Poland
Ryanair – Changing Business in Poland
Ryanair’s Business Model
The Future of LCC in Poland
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20 1 4 - G r e a t Ye a r f o r Po l a n d
10 years of EU accession
15 years of NATO membership
25 years since Third Polish Republic
Fastest growing economy in Europe - +3.3% recent quarter
Polish GDP doubled in 10 years €390 billion from €201 bn.
Polish economy grown faster than rest of EU, by 49% since 2003.
Avg. rest of the Union is only 11%.
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E u r o p e ’s F a v o u r i t e A i r l i n e
Europe’s Lowest Fares/Lowest Unit Costs
Europe’s No 1, Traffic – 86m (No 1 or 2 in most markets)
Europe’s No 1, Coverage – 69 Bases
Europe’s No 1, C’mer Service – Low Fares/On-time/Bags/Canx
– Always Getting Better/Digital rollout
Fwd bookings & Ld factors rising since Sept 13
Aircraft orders (180 NG’s & up to 200 MAX’s) deliver 150mpa by FY24
Unblemished 30 year Safety Record
World’s highest rated airline, BBB+, S&P and Fitch
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N o 1 F o r C o v e r a g e
69 bases
186 airports
30 countries
1,600+ routes
86m c’mers p.a.
304 a/c – all 737-800’s
Newest fleet (< 5 Yrs)
180 Boeing NG order
New 200 Boeing MAX order
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S t r o n g M a r ke t Po s i t i o n
UK (115)
Germany (112)
Spain (103)
Italy (84)
France (73)
Portugal (20)
Belgium (17)
Ireland (16)
Poland (14)
Morocco (11)
13%
4%
18%
21%
6%
13%
21%
40%
27%
13%
RYA Share
Source: 2013 Dep. Seats per Capstats & Diio Mii. Mkt positions adj. for 2014 schedules.
Country (Cap m’s) No. 1 No. 2
Vueling
easyJet
easyJet
Jetairfly
AF-KLM
Wizz
easyJet
No. 3
IAG
Air Berlin
IAG
Alitalia
easyJet
TAP
SN Brussels
Aer Lingus
LOT
easyjet
Luft
AF- KLM
RAM
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E u r o p e ’s L o w e s t F a r e s
LOW Ryanair
MEDIUM Norwegian
easyJet
Aer Lingus (s/h)
Air Berlin
HIGH Alitalia
Lufthansa
IAG
AF-KLM
Ave .Fare
+ 80%
+ 83%
+ 102%
+ 163%
+ 222%
+ 411%
+ 426%
+ 552%
% > Ryanair Avg. Fare
€46
€83
€84
€93
€121
€148
€235
€242
€300
€163
(-4%)
Source: Latest Annual Reports
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E u r o p e ’s L o w e s t U n i t C o s t ( E x F u e l )
RYA EZY NOR
Staff
Airport & hand
Route charges
Own’ship & maint.
S & M + other
Total
% > Ryanair
€6
€8
€6
€7
€2
€29
€9
€21
€6
€9
€7
€52
+ 79%
€15
€14
€8
€21
€4
€62
+114%
€35
€8
€0
€16
€15
€74
+155%
LUV Spirit
€19
€6
€0
€19
€15
€59
+103%
€17
€27
€8
€29
€26
€107
+269%
AB1
Source: Latest Annual Reports
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9
52 54
61 62
81.7
86
90
96
104
112
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
C’mers (m’s)
FY 2014
FY 2016 FY 2015 FY 2018 FY 2017 FY 2019
Ryanair Growth
Source: Latest traffic stats for 12 mths to Mar14 and company forecasts.
N o 1 F o r Tr a f f i c
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Average saving: €117 per flight
x 86m customers p.a
= €10bn saving every year
S a v i n g E u r o p e > € 1 0 b n E v e r y Ye a r
Average Ryanair fare vs competitors
€46 €163*
* Aer Lingus, Easyjet, IAG, KLM-AF, Air Berlin
x 15
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C u s t o m e r E x p e r i e n c e I m p r o v i n g
11
RECAPTCHA scrapped
24hr grace period
Quiet flights (early AM, late PM)
2nd free small carry on bag
B’rding card reissue & bag fees cut
New Groups & Corp. Travel Dept.
Allocated seating
New PayPal partnership
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Simpler website (17 to 5 clicks)
“My Ryanair”, c’mer registration
“Fare Finder”, great response
GDS (Galileo/Worldspan) for business agents
New mobile app for smart phones
New Business Plus
Continuous IT & digital improvement underway
D i g i t a l E x p e r i e n c e I m p r o v i n g
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F a m i l y e X t r a
50% allocated seating discounts, checked-in bags & travel insurance*
Reduced infant fees (now just €20/£20)
A free 5kg infant bag allowance
Discounted priority boarding*
Bottle warming & baby changing facilities
Two free pieces of infant equipment
Bring an approved car seat on board
Fly & Save bonus - 20% off your 3rd family flight p.a
*(when booked by an adult)
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11 airports
4 bases
7 aircraft
122 routes
7m c’mers p.a.
7,000 jobs (ACI)
€820m savings p.a.
Poland’s No 1 airline
R y a n a i r – Po l a n d
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27% of RYR c’mers travel on business
Business Plus from 295PLN
Flexibility on Ticket Changes
20kg checked-in bag allowance
Fast track airport security (incl WMI)
Priority boarding
Premium seats
B u s i n e s s P l u s
*(at selected airports)
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2 based a/c
Base opens 23 Oct
23 routes W’14
7 new routes W14
276 weekly flights
2m c’mers p.a.
2,000 on-site jobs (ACI)
R y a n a i r E f f e c t – W a r s a w
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W a r s a w D o m e s t i c Ro u t e s
Starts Freq Ryanair LOT
Warsaw – Gdansk Tue 28 Oct 2 x daily 78 PLN 376 PLN
Warsaw – Wroclaw Tue 28 Oct 2 x daily 78 PLN 388 PLN
* Prices for return flights on 28th Oct 14, booked 10th Sep
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200 Boeing MAX Aircraft – “The Gamechanger”
– 100 Firm & 100 Options
– Deliveries start 2019 to 2023
197 seats (+4%), CFM LEAP Engines & competitive pricing =
– Lower unit costs & lower fares for c’mers
– Slimline seats = more leg room
– Boeing Sky Interior improves c’mer experience
– Up to 18% lower fuel costs & 40% noise emission redn.
Fleet grows to 520 a/c by FY24
– Drives growth to 150m c’mers by FY24
– Flexibility via options, sales & lease handbacks
– Maintains youngest fleet age <5 yrs
B o e i n g 7 3 7 M A X 20 0 – T h e G a m e c h a n g e r
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B o e i n g S k y I n t e r i o r
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I m p r o v i n g C u s t o m e r E x p e r i e n c e
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Nov 13 Dec 14
Business Plus
Exte
nd
ed
Pro
du
ct
Winter 14 & new bases
Summer 15 & new routes
Sep 14
Campaign #1
Airport Rebrand
Campaign #2
Bet
ter
Bra
nd
Quiet Flights
2nd Free Bag
Fees Cut
Allocated seats B
ette
r Se
rvic
e
PED use
Groups GDS 1 GDS 2 Corporate
New
D
istr
ibu
tio
n
Google Flight
Website V1
My Ryanair
Website V2
App V1 B
ette
r D
igit
al
App V2
A l w a y s G e t t i n g B e t t e r
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Low cost, more efficient, bigger aircraft
High people productivity through incentives
Lower maintenance costs on new aircraft
Higher utilisation / lower costs at secondary airports
More flights per day per aircraft
Internet sales of 99% = lowest S&M costs
Profitable ancillary sales reduces costs
Lower costs = lower fares = higher growth & profits
The “Ryanair Formula” – Lower fares, lower costs
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The “Ryanair formula” Dublin - London
Dublin – London Passenger Growth 1980 - 2008
0
1
2
3
4
5
1980 1986 1999 2000 2005 2007 2008
Million
PAX
Ryanair start
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The “Ryanair formula” London - Barcelona
London – Barcelona Passenger Growth 2001 - 2008
0
1
2
3
4
5
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Million
PAX
Ryanair start
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86m
90m
96m
104m
112m
120m
127m
134m
143m
150m
FY15
FY16
FY17
FY18
FY19
FY20
FY21
FY22
FY23
FY24
+ 5%
+ 5%
+ 7%
+ 8%
+ 8%
+ 7%
+ 6%
+ 6%
+ 6%
+ 5%
C’mers P.A.
C’mer Growth
F l e e t / Tr a f f i c G r o w t h F Y 1 5 t o F Y 2 4
308
340
368
402
420
450
470
490
510
520
Fleet (at YE)
73
7-8
00
Ord
er
MA
X O
rde
r
Cum’ Growth
+ 5%
+ 10%
+ 18%
+ 27%
+ 37%
+ 47%
+ 55%
+ 64%
+ 74%
+ 84%
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Boeing aircraft orders drive growth from 304 to 520 a/c by FY24
10 yr Stn growth deal agreed from Apr 2014
- Lower costs & more efficient facilities
- Stn traffic to grow 50% from 13m to > 20m p.a.
- Delivers 25% of forecast traffic growth to 2019
10 yr WAW (Mod) growth deal - Sept 2013
- Lower costs & more efficient facilities
- First 2 domestic routes (Gdn & Wro) from April 2014
Flags in Sp, Fr, It, Cen Eur, Scan & Ger cut capacity – growth opportunity
N e w L o w C o s t D r i v e r s
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CLOSURES
FLAGS
LCC’s
Spanair
Malev
BMI Baby
Wind Jet
AF-KLM
Iberia
SAS
LOT
Air Berlin
easyJet
Wizzair
Spain
Hungary
UK
Italy
France/Ned
Spain
Scandinavia
Poland
Germany
UK
E. Europe
2,000 job losses
2,600 job losses
1,200 job losses
2,800 job losses
SH losses of €750m
4,500 job cuts, 35% pay cuts
6,000 job cuts, 15% pay cuts
950 jobs cut
Closed MAD & cut LPL base
Cut Cork & WAW routes
Competition in Retreat (2012/14)
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Proj. Annual Seat Capacity – Europe 2013-2018
Total Market Growth 114M Ryanair Growth 43M
Ryanair accounts for 38% of total growth over next 5 years
Airline 2013 2018 projection Comment
Ryanair 98,830,371 142,263,996 175 a/c order - grow at 5% per annum up to 2019
Norwegian 26,235,950 52,471,899 Aircraft order to support growth to over 50m
Wizz Air 14,665,752 19,626,084 Likely to grow at c6% per annum.
Vueling 21,135,919 30,343,345 Likely to grow at c7.5% per annum.
British Airways 33,700,756 35,385,794 Short haul likely to grow by c1% per annum
easyJet 65,333,932 77,596,216 Guided to grow at c3% per annum up to 2016
Pegasus 15,752,123 22,614,210 Continued growth expected
Turkish Airlines 38,769,669 47,169,230 Continued growth expected
KLM 22,107,604 23,212,985 c1% growth per annum in short haul traffic
Lufthansa 77,683,955 81,568,153 c1% growth per annum in short haul traffic
SWISS 18,014,325 19,889,270 c2% growth per annum in short haul traffic
Flybe 13,624,982 13,624,982 Short haul likely to remain stable
Aer Lingus 13,356,271 13,356,271 Short haul likely to remain stable
Austrian 12,134,547 12,134,547 Short haul likely to remain stable
SAS 32,695,653 31,060,870 Restructuring - short haul likely to reduce
airberlin 29,374,870 29,374,870 Restructuring - short haul unlikely to grow
Iberia 22,076,350 19,868,715 Restructuring - short haul likely to reduce
Alitalia 21,137,546 19,023,791 Restructuring - short haul likely to reduce
Air France 50,797,768 50,797,768 Restructuring - short haul unlikely to grow
TAP Portugal 11,093,875 11,093,875 For sale - may be restructured when sold
OTHERS 211,000,000 211,000,000 No net growth expected as consolidation continues
Total Capacity 849,522,216 963,476,872 Total Market Growth Projection 113,954,655
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Ireland Spain UK
Netherlands Sweden Belgium Germany France Italy Poland
5.9 3.2 3.2
2.8 2.7 2.0 1.9 1.8 1.7 0.4
24m 150m 202m
48m 27m 22m
156m 115m 104m
15m
SH Flights (Per Capita)
Country Population
SH Flights (Per Annum)
4m 47m 63m
17m 10m 11m 82m 64m 61m 38m
Potential Increase (At 3.2 Flights P.C.)
14% 19% 59% 69% 78% 88%
707%
Mature Low Cost Markets
Low costs generate additional pax.
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Business Definition
Product is a commodity
Others can enter business cheaply
Therefore we must do it better
– Continuous improvement
– Continuous cost reduction
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Cost Reduction
The only competitive advantage is to be the lowest cost operator
Champion cost control
Celebrate cost reduction
Every cost item is examined – Highlighters
– Ice
– Stationery
– Distribution / Internet
– Travel
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Simplify
The process
The way we manage
The way we communicate
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Communications strategy
Clarity
Same message for all groups
Reinforce the indicators of success
– Cost control
– Load factor
– Punctuality
– Share price
– Growth story
– ABSOLUTE IMPORTANCE OF INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTION
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Future of Airline Industry
Massive Consolidation
5 Big Players
– Ryanair
– Lufthansa / Swiss / SAS / Austria
– easyjet
– Etihad/ Alitalia
– BA / Iberia
– Air France / KLM
No Room for Small Independent High Cost
Airlines
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Future of LCC in Poland
Polish economy growing rapidly.
Low current levels of penetration of air travel.
Polish People Love to Fly – Love the Sun.
LCC share of seats within C/E Europe is only 15%, compared
with 38% within Western Europe.
Strong record of unbundling products
Lot and Eurolot retrenchment
High costs at Chopin vs. Great regional airports
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Future of Ryanair in Poland
Hire 500 Polish pilots over next 5 years
Hire 1,000’s of cabin crew – opportunity
Possible maintenance facilities
Rebirth of Polish State as an Aviation innovator
Potential new bases and routes
Vast potential for Tourism and Business
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© Ryanair 2014
Boeing aircraft orders drive growth from 304 to 520 a/c by FY24
Traffic grows from 82m p.a. to 150m c’mers p.a. (+84%) by FY24
69 bases, 186 apts, 30 EU countries – huge platform for growth
New a/c improves Ryanair’s lowest cost/lowest fare model
197 seats (+4%) & up to 18% fuel saving drives profit growth
Boeing Sky interiors improves onboard c’mer experience
“The Gamechanger” delivers for RYR c’mers, people & shareholders
S u m m a r y
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© Ryanair 2014
Appendices
28 July 2014
Questions?