poverty and inequality during previous recessions ... · basic state pension source: hbai data rpi...
TRANSCRIPT
![Page 1: Poverty and Inequality During Previous Recessions ... · Basic State Pension Source: HBAI data RPI inflation 4.1% BHC Poverty Line 4.3%. 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 1979 1983 1987 …](https://reader031.vdocuments.us/reader031/viewer/2022031000/5b81ee557f8b9aad638d7400/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
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0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 1100 1200 1300 1400 1500+
Nu
mb
er
of
ind
ivid
ua
ls (
mil
lio
ns
)
Income, £ per week, 2007/08 prices
Source: HBAI data
1.2 million
individuals with
income above
£1,500 per week
Mean, £487
Median, £393
![Page 6: Poverty and Inequality During Previous Recessions ... · Basic State Pension Source: HBAI data RPI inflation 4.1% BHC Poverty Line 4.3%. 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 1979 1983 1987 …](https://reader031.vdocuments.us/reader031/viewer/2022031000/5b81ee557f8b9aad638d7400/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994-9
5
1996-9
7
1998-9
9
2000-0
1
2002-0
3
2004-0
5
2006-0
7
Re
al p
erc
en
tag
e in
cre
as
e
0.9% per year
avg. growth
![Page 7: Poverty and Inequality During Previous Recessions ... · Basic State Pension Source: HBAI data RPI inflation 4.1% BHC Poverty Line 4.3%. 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 1979 1983 1987 …](https://reader031.vdocuments.us/reader031/viewer/2022031000/5b81ee557f8b9aad638d7400/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994-9
5
1996-9
7
1998-9
9
2000-0
1
2002-0
3
2004-0
5
2006-0
7
Re
al p
erc
en
tag
e in
cre
as
e
3.4% per year
avg. growth
0.9% per year
avg. growth
![Page 8: Poverty and Inequality During Previous Recessions ... · Basic State Pension Source: HBAI data RPI inflation 4.1% BHC Poverty Line 4.3%. 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 1979 1983 1987 …](https://reader031.vdocuments.us/reader031/viewer/2022031000/5b81ee557f8b9aad638d7400/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994-9
5
1996-9
7
1998-9
9
2000-0
1
2002-0
3
2004-0
5
2006-0
7
Re
al p
erc
en
tag
e in
cre
as
e
![Page 9: Poverty and Inequality During Previous Recessions ... · Basic State Pension Source: HBAI data RPI inflation 4.1% BHC Poverty Line 4.3%. 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 1979 1983 1987 …](https://reader031.vdocuments.us/reader031/viewer/2022031000/5b81ee557f8b9aad638d7400/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9%
Total
Payments
Other
Savings
Self-emp
Benefits
Earnings
2001/02 to 2007/08 1996/97 to 2001/02
Source: HBAI data
66%
18%
10%
11%
3%
-7%
% of total
income
![Page 10: Poverty and Inequality During Previous Recessions ... · Basic State Pension Source: HBAI data RPI inflation 4.1% BHC Poverty Line 4.3%. 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 1979 1983 1987 …](https://reader031.vdocuments.us/reader031/viewer/2022031000/5b81ee557f8b9aad638d7400/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009Pe
rce
nta
ge
in
cre
as
e o
n s
am
e m
on
thp
revio
us
ye
ar
Source: Average Earnings IndexSource: Average Earnings Index
![Page 11: Poverty and Inequality During Previous Recessions ... · Basic State Pension Source: HBAI data RPI inflation 4.1% BHC Poverty Line 4.3%. 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 1979 1983 1987 …](https://reader031.vdocuments.us/reader031/viewer/2022031000/5b81ee557f8b9aad638d7400/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009Pe
rce
nta
ge
in
cre
as
e o
n s
am
e m
on
thp
revio
us
ye
ar
Source: Average Earnings IndexSource: Average Earnings Index
![Page 12: Poverty and Inequality During Previous Recessions ... · Basic State Pension Source: HBAI data RPI inflation 4.1% BHC Poverty Line 4.3%. 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 1979 1983 1987 …](https://reader031.vdocuments.us/reader031/viewer/2022031000/5b81ee557f8b9aad638d7400/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
![Page 13: Poverty and Inequality During Previous Recessions ... · Basic State Pension Source: HBAI data RPI inflation 4.1% BHC Poverty Line 4.3%. 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 1979 1983 1987 …](https://reader031.vdocuments.us/reader031/viewer/2022031000/5b81ee557f8b9aad638d7400/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
![Page 14: Poverty and Inequality During Previous Recessions ... · Basic State Pension Source: HBAI data RPI inflation 4.1% BHC Poverty Line 4.3%. 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 1979 1983 1987 …](https://reader031.vdocuments.us/reader031/viewer/2022031000/5b81ee557f8b9aad638d7400/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
Poorest 2 3 4 Richest
Ave
rag
e a
nn
ua
l in
co
me
gro
wth
(%
)
Income Quintile GroupSource: HBAI data
![Page 15: Poverty and Inequality During Previous Recessions ... · Basic State Pension Source: HBAI data RPI inflation 4.1% BHC Poverty Line 4.3%. 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 1979 1983 1987 …](https://reader031.vdocuments.us/reader031/viewer/2022031000/5b81ee557f8b9aad638d7400/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
Poorest 2 3 4 Richest
Ave
rag
e a
nn
ua
l in
co
me
gro
wth
(%
)
Income Quintile GroupSource: HBAI data
![Page 16: Poverty and Inequality During Previous Recessions ... · Basic State Pension Source: HBAI data RPI inflation 4.1% BHC Poverty Line 4.3%. 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 1979 1983 1987 …](https://reader031.vdocuments.us/reader031/viewer/2022031000/5b81ee557f8b9aad638d7400/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
-10%
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90
Ave
rag
e a
nn
ua
l in
co
me
ga
in (
%)
Percentile point
Source: HBAI data
![Page 17: Poverty and Inequality During Previous Recessions ... · Basic State Pension Source: HBAI data RPI inflation 4.1% BHC Poverty Line 4.3%. 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 1979 1983 1987 …](https://reader031.vdocuments.us/reader031/viewer/2022031000/5b81ee557f8b9aad638d7400/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
-10%
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90
Ave
rag
e a
nn
ua
l in
co
me
ga
in (
%)
Percentile point
Source: HBAI data
![Page 18: Poverty and Inequality During Previous Recessions ... · Basic State Pension Source: HBAI data RPI inflation 4.1% BHC Poverty Line 4.3%. 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 1979 1983 1987 …](https://reader031.vdocuments.us/reader031/viewer/2022031000/5b81ee557f8b9aad638d7400/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
-3%
-2%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90
Ave
rag
e a
nn
ua
l in
co
me
ga
in (
%)
Percentile point
Source: HBAI data
![Page 19: Poverty and Inequality During Previous Recessions ... · Basic State Pension Source: HBAI data RPI inflation 4.1% BHC Poverty Line 4.3%. 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 1979 1983 1987 …](https://reader031.vdocuments.us/reader031/viewer/2022031000/5b81ee557f8b9aad638d7400/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
-3%
-2%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90
Ave
rag
e a
nn
ua
l in
co
me
ga
in (
%)
Percentile point
Source: HBAI data
![Page 20: Poverty and Inequality During Previous Recessions ... · Basic State Pension Source: HBAI data RPI inflation 4.1% BHC Poverty Line 4.3%. 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 1979 1983 1987 …](https://reader031.vdocuments.us/reader031/viewer/2022031000/5b81ee557f8b9aad638d7400/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
-3%
-2%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90
Ave
rag
e a
nn
ua
l in
co
me
ga
in (
%)
Percentile point
Source: HBAI data
![Page 21: Poverty and Inequality During Previous Recessions ... · Basic State Pension Source: HBAI data RPI inflation 4.1% BHC Poverty Line 4.3%. 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 1979 1983 1987 …](https://reader031.vdocuments.us/reader031/viewer/2022031000/5b81ee557f8b9aad638d7400/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
-3%
-2%
-1%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90
Ave
rag
e a
nn
ua
l in
co
me
ga
in (
%)
Percentile point
1979-1996/7
Source: HBAI data
![Page 22: Poverty and Inequality During Previous Recessions ... · Basic State Pension Source: HBAI data RPI inflation 4.1% BHC Poverty Line 4.3%. 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 1979 1983 1987 …](https://reader031.vdocuments.us/reader031/viewer/2022031000/5b81ee557f8b9aad638d7400/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
-3%
-2%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90
Ave
rag
e a
nn
ua
l in
co
me
ga
in (
%)
Percentile point
Source: HBAI data
![Page 23: Poverty and Inequality During Previous Recessions ... · Basic State Pension Source: HBAI data RPI inflation 4.1% BHC Poverty Line 4.3%. 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 1979 1983 1987 …](https://reader031.vdocuments.us/reader031/viewer/2022031000/5b81ee557f8b9aad638d7400/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
0.2
0.3
0.4
Gin
i C
oe
ffic
ien
t
Thatcher Major Blair/Brown
Source: HBAI data
![Page 24: Poverty and Inequality During Previous Recessions ... · Basic State Pension Source: HBAI data RPI inflation 4.1% BHC Poverty Line 4.3%. 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 1979 1983 1987 …](https://reader031.vdocuments.us/reader031/viewer/2022031000/5b81ee557f8b9aad638d7400/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)
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![Page 26: Poverty and Inequality During Previous Recessions ... · Basic State Pension Source: HBAI data RPI inflation 4.1% BHC Poverty Line 4.3%. 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 1979 1983 1987 …](https://reader031.vdocuments.us/reader031/viewer/2022031000/5b81ee557f8b9aad638d7400/html5/thumbnails/26.jpg)
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999 2003 2007
60% AHC Median 60% BHC Median
Source: HBAI Data (FES and FRS)
![Page 27: Poverty and Inequality During Previous Recessions ... · Basic State Pension Source: HBAI data RPI inflation 4.1% BHC Poverty Line 4.3%. 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 1979 1983 1987 …](https://reader031.vdocuments.us/reader031/viewer/2022031000/5b81ee557f8b9aad638d7400/html5/thumbnails/27.jpg)
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999 2003 2007
60% AHC Median 60% BHC Median
Source: HBAI Data (FES and FRS)
![Page 28: Poverty and Inequality During Previous Recessions ... · Basic State Pension Source: HBAI data RPI inflation 4.1% BHC Poverty Line 4.3%. 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 1979 1983 1987 …](https://reader031.vdocuments.us/reader031/viewer/2022031000/5b81ee557f8b9aad638d7400/html5/thumbnails/28.jpg)
70% of
BHC
Median
60% of
BHC
Median
50% of
BHC
Median
40% of
BHC
Median
1996-97 Rate 28.1 19.4 10.6 4.3
Source: HBAI Data (FRS)
![Page 29: Poverty and Inequality During Previous Recessions ... · Basic State Pension Source: HBAI data RPI inflation 4.1% BHC Poverty Line 4.3%. 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 1979 1983 1987 …](https://reader031.vdocuments.us/reader031/viewer/2022031000/5b81ee557f8b9aad638d7400/html5/thumbnails/29.jpg)
70% of
BHC
Median
60% of
BHC
Median
50% of
BHC
Median
40% of
BHC
Median
1996-97 Rate 28.1 19.4 10.6 4.3
Labour I Change -0.8 -1.0 -0.1 +0.8
Source: HBAI Data (FRS)
![Page 30: Poverty and Inequality During Previous Recessions ... · Basic State Pension Source: HBAI data RPI inflation 4.1% BHC Poverty Line 4.3%. 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 1979 1983 1987 …](https://reader031.vdocuments.us/reader031/viewer/2022031000/5b81ee557f8b9aad638d7400/html5/thumbnails/30.jpg)
70% of
BHC
Median
60% of
BHC
Median
50% of
BHC
Median
40% of
BHC
Median
1996-97 Rate 28.1 19.4 10.6 4.3
Labour I Change -0.8 -1.0 -0.1 +0.8
Labour II Change -1.4 -1.4 -0.9 -0.2
Source: HBAI Data (FRS)
![Page 31: Poverty and Inequality During Previous Recessions ... · Basic State Pension Source: HBAI data RPI inflation 4.1% BHC Poverty Line 4.3%. 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 1979 1983 1987 …](https://reader031.vdocuments.us/reader031/viewer/2022031000/5b81ee557f8b9aad638d7400/html5/thumbnails/31.jpg)
70% of
BHC
Median
60% of
BHC
Median
50% of
BHC
Median
40% of
BHC
Median
1996-97 Rate 28.1 19.4 10.6 4.3
Labour I Change -0.8 -1.0 -0.1 +0.8
Labour II Change -1.4 -1.4 -0.9 -0.2
Labour III Change +0.6 +1.3 +1.3 +1.1
Source: HBAI Data (FRS)
![Page 32: Poverty and Inequality During Previous Recessions ... · Basic State Pension Source: HBAI data RPI inflation 4.1% BHC Poverty Line 4.3%. 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 1979 1983 1987 …](https://reader031.vdocuments.us/reader031/viewer/2022031000/5b81ee557f8b9aad638d7400/html5/thumbnails/32.jpg)
70% of
BHC
Median
60% of
BHC
Median
50% of
BHC
Median
40% of
BHC
Median
1996-97 Rate 28.1 19.4 10.6 4.3
Labour I Change -0.8 -1.0 -0.1 +0.8
Labour II Change -1.4 -1.4 -0.9 -0.2
Labour III Change +0.6 +1.3 +1.3 +1.1
2007-08 Rate 26.5 18.3 10.8 6.0
Source: HBAI Data (FRS)
![Page 33: Poverty and Inequality During Previous Recessions ... · Basic State Pension Source: HBAI data RPI inflation 4.1% BHC Poverty Line 4.3%. 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 1979 1983 1987 …](https://reader031.vdocuments.us/reader031/viewer/2022031000/5b81ee557f8b9aad638d7400/html5/thumbnails/33.jpg)
0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0%
Non-working couple, 3 children
Non-working Lone Parent, 1 child
Part-time working Lone Parent, 1 child
Single Adult on JSA
Single Adult on IB
Single Pensioner on Pension Credit
Basic State Pension
Source: HBAI data
RPI inflation
4.1%
BHC Poverty
Line
4.3%
![Page 34: Poverty and Inequality During Previous Recessions ... · Basic State Pension Source: HBAI data RPI inflation 4.1% BHC Poverty Line 4.3%. 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 1979 1983 1987 …](https://reader031.vdocuments.us/reader031/viewer/2022031000/5b81ee557f8b9aad638d7400/html5/thumbnails/34.jpg)
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999 2003 2007
Source: HBAI Data (FES and FRS) and authors’ analysis
Children
Working age with children
Working age no children
Pensioners
![Page 35: Poverty and Inequality During Previous Recessions ... · Basic State Pension Source: HBAI data RPI inflation 4.1% BHC Poverty Line 4.3%. 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 1979 1983 1987 …](https://reader031.vdocuments.us/reader031/viewer/2022031000/5b81ee557f8b9aad638d7400/html5/thumbnails/35.jpg)
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
Ch
ild
ren
(m
illi
on
s)
Child poverty
![Page 36: Poverty and Inequality During Previous Recessions ... · Basic State Pension Source: HBAI data RPI inflation 4.1% BHC Poverty Line 4.3%. 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 1979 1983 1987 …](https://reader031.vdocuments.us/reader031/viewer/2022031000/5b81ee557f8b9aad638d7400/html5/thumbnails/36.jpg)
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
Ch
ild
ren
(m
illi
on
s)
Child poverty Progress to date Required path Projected
2010 Target looks challenging
![Page 37: Poverty and Inequality During Previous Recessions ... · Basic State Pension Source: HBAI data RPI inflation 4.1% BHC Poverty Line 4.3%. 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 1979 1983 1987 …](https://reader031.vdocuments.us/reader031/viewer/2022031000/5b81ee557f8b9aad638d7400/html5/thumbnails/37.jpg)
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0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004
Pensioners AHC Pensioners BHC
Source: HBAI Data (FES and FRS)
![Page 39: Poverty and Inequality During Previous Recessions ... · Basic State Pension Source: HBAI data RPI inflation 4.1% BHC Poverty Line 4.3%. 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 1979 1983 1987 …](https://reader031.vdocuments.us/reader031/viewer/2022031000/5b81ee557f8b9aad638d7400/html5/thumbnails/39.jpg)
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004
Pensioners AHC Pensioners BHC
Source: HBAI Data (FES and FRS)
Number of pensioners
living in poverty now:
2.0 million (AHC)
2.5 million (BHC)
![Page 40: Poverty and Inequality During Previous Recessions ... · Basic State Pension Source: HBAI data RPI inflation 4.1% BHC Poverty Line 4.3%. 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 1979 1983 1987 …](https://reader031.vdocuments.us/reader031/viewer/2022031000/5b81ee557f8b9aad638d7400/html5/thumbnails/40.jpg)
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
20%
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2006
60% of AHC Median 60% of BHC Median
Source: HBAI Data (FES and FRS)
![Page 41: Poverty and Inequality During Previous Recessions ... · Basic State Pension Source: HBAI data RPI inflation 4.1% BHC Poverty Line 4.3%. 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 1979 1983 1987 …](https://reader031.vdocuments.us/reader031/viewer/2022031000/5b81ee557f8b9aad638d7400/html5/thumbnails/41.jpg)
![Page 42: Poverty and Inequality During Previous Recessions ... · Basic State Pension Source: HBAI data RPI inflation 4.1% BHC Poverty Line 4.3%. 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 1979 1983 1987 …](https://reader031.vdocuments.us/reader031/viewer/2022031000/5b81ee557f8b9aad638d7400/html5/thumbnails/42.jpg)