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TRANSCRIPT
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PCI Potential Cumulative Impact
Developing a multi-scale, spatially explicit estimator of the impacts of land
cover change on aquatic resources.
WOW is this complicated!
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Types of Resolution• Spatial
6ft grids, buffershed, parcelshed, watershed• Temporal
2005, 2007, 2009, 2010, 2012• Radiometric
81 (each year), 82 (each pair of years), 85+n (study duration – including n years of historical landscape reconstruction)
• Phenomenological– Benthos (e.g., BIBI), hydrology, stream
geomorphology, water chemistry, landcover
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A B C D E F G H
Tree Shrub Herb Building Paved Unpaved Water Wetland
A Tree
B Shrub
C Herb
D Building
E Paved
F Unpaved
G Water
H Wetland
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A B C D E F G H
Tree Shrub Herb Building Paved Unpaved Water Wetland
A TreeAB AC AD AE AF AG AH
B ShrubBA BC BD BE BF BG BH
C HerbCA CB CD CE CF CG CH
D BuildingDA DB DC DE DF DG DH
E Paved EA EB EC ED EF EG EH
F UnpavedFA FB FC FD FE FG FH
G WaterGA GB GC GD GE GF GH
H WetlandHA HB HC HD HE HF HG
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c =( the shortest hydrologic distance from LC∆
to stream) +(stream length to monitoring site)
Where f
is determined by the change from landcover type i
to landcover type j
and λ
= the scale of analysis (i.e., buffershed, parcelshed, or watershed).
∑−
=⎥⎦
⎤⎢⎣
⎡⎟⎠⎞
⎜⎝⎛+⎟
⎠⎞
⎜⎝⎛+⎟
⎠⎞
⎜⎝⎛+⎟
⎠⎞
⎜⎝⎛=
HHAA
ijHHACABAATot F
cF
cF
cF
cF
1
*1...*1*1*1
( )Totij FfPCI =λ
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A B C D E F G H
Tree Shrub Herb Building Paved Unpaved Water Wetland
A TreeAB AC AD AE AF
B ShrubBA BC BD BE BF
C HerbCA CD CE CF
D BuildingDA DB DC
E Paved EA EB EC
F UnpavedFA FB FC
G Water
H Wetland
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A B C D E F G H
Tree Shrub Herb Building Paved Unpaved Water Wetland
A TreeAB AC AD AE AF
B ShrubBD BE BF
C HerbCA CB CD CE CF
D BuildingDA DB DC
E Paved EA EB EC
F UnpavedFA FB FC
G Water
H Wetland
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A B C D E F G H
Tree Shrub Herb Building Paved Unpaved Water Wetland
A TreeClearing
Completely Impervious Other Land
ConversionB Shrub
C HerbNatural Succession
D Building
Recovery Early Recovery
E Paved
F Unpaved
G Water
H Wetland
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A B C D E F G H
Tree Shrub Herb Building Paved Unpaved Water Wetland
A TreeAB AC AD AE AF AG AH
B ShrubBA BC BD BE BF BG BH
C HerbCA CB CD CE CF CG CH
D BuildingDA DB DC DE DF DG DH
E Paved EA EB EC ED EF EG EH
F UnpavedFA FB FC FD FE FG FH
G WaterGA GB GC GD GE GF GH
H WetlandHA HB HC HD HE HF HG
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AA
AA
B+n
AA
AA
C+n
AA
AA
E+n
AA
AA
D+n
HH
HH
F+n
HH
HH
G+n
HH
HH
H+n
AA
AA
F+n
AA
AA
G+n
AA
AA
H+n
AA
AB
A+n
AA
AB
B+n …
fA
AA
AA
+n
These 5+n codes represent the legacy of each grid cell across 5 possible temporal states plus n historical states. There are 85+n possibilities for each gridcell.
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CAUTION
SPATIALLY
EXPLICIT CONTENT
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Spatially Explicit Analysis
• Three scales of analysis– Watershed– Parcelshed– Buffershed
• Three measures of connectivity– Euclidian distance from the sampling location– Euclidian distance from stream network– Hydrologic distance from sampling location
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From: Wigmosta et al., (1994)
Shortest Euclidean Distance
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From: Wigmosta et al., (1994)
Shortest Euclidean Distance
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From: Wigmosta et al., (1994)
Shortest Euclidean Distance
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From: Wigmosta et al., (1994)
Shortest Distance to Stream
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From: Wigmosta et al., (1994)
Shortest Distance to Stream
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From: Wigmosta et al., (1994)From: Wigmosta et al., (1994)
Shortest Distance to Stream
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From: Wigmosta et al., (1994)
Shortest Hydrologic Connectivity
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From: Wigmosta et al., (1994)
Shortest Hydrologic Connectivity
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From: Wigmosta et al., (1994)From: Wigmosta et al., (1994)
Shortest Hydrologic Connectivity
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F : D
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D : D
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A : D
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C : D
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C : D
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F : D
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So – How will this improve the state of our knowledge?
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Watershed
Parcelshed
Buffershed
Res
pons
e Va
riabl
e
Univariate Analysis of Land Cover Change
Scaled Analysis ofLand Cover Change
Res
pons
eVa
riabl
eR
espo
nse
Varia
ble
Connectivity-WeightedLand Cover Change
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– Determine type and scale of monitoring that is informed by the Phenomenological Resolution of the variables under consideration
– Assess how location explicitly affects our ability to resolve impact/ response relations over time
– Generate Potential Cumulative Impact (PCI) assessment of permitted and other actions
– Assess compliance and implementation and adjust potential effect ratings
– Develop Conclusions
– Develop recommendations for Adaptive Management
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Acknowledgements
• U.S. Environmental Protection Agency– Region 10
• U.W. Urban Ecology Lab• Green River Community College GIS
Lab• U.S. Geological Survey• Veteran’s Conservation Corps• King County DNRP