Post-Election Analysis

*Current as of November 11, 2020

Election 2020 Timeline

Source: NCSL

Dec. 8: Electoral college deadline

for resolving election disputes

(3 U.S.C. § 5)

Nov. 9: Senatereturns

Dec. 14: Electors from each state

meet and cast their ballots for president and vice president

Nov. 16: House returns

Dec. 23: Deadline for the receipt of electors’ ballots

Dec. 18: Final scheduled

congressional session

Jan. 6: U.S. Congress meets in joint session to count electoral votes

Jan. 20: Inauguration Day

Dec. 11: Congressional

appropriations expire

Nov. 18 & 19: House holds leadership

elections

Nov. 12 – 21 and Nov. 29 – Dec. 5: House new

member orientation

Election Recap

Record Voter Turnout

Even with votes still left to tally, 2020 is on track to be the highest voter turnout in over a century.

Source: WP

60.1%2016

61.6%2008

so far 62.5%2020 66.5% projected

63.8%1960

65.7%1908

51.7%1996

58.6%2012

60.1%2004

54.2%2000

Share of voting-eligible population

The Most Expensive Election

$0

$50,000,000

$100,000,000

$150,000,000

$200,000,000

Apr

2017

Jul

2017

Oct

2017

Dec

2017

Apr

2018

Jul

2018

Oct

2018

Dec

2018

Apr

2019

Jul

2019

Oct

2019

Dec

2019

Feb

2020

Mar

2020

Apr

2020

May

2020

Jun

2020

Jul

2020

Aug

2020

Sep

2020

Oct

2020

2020 Presidential Candidates Cash on Hand

Trump Biden

Source: FEC : NPR : Bloomberg

In the week leading up to the election, pro-Biden groups outspent pro-Trump groups by $27.5 million.

$67 million

$39.5 millionPro-Trump Groups

Pro-Biden Groups

Raised

$1.57 billionRaisedDonald Trump and RNC Spent

Cash$1.49 billion

$117 million

$1.51 billionJoe Biden and DNC Spent $1.29 billion

$239 millionCash

Raised

Democratic Senate Candidates Outpaced GOP Spending

With few exceptions, Democratic challengers far outpaced Republican incumbents in terms of spending per vote.

$0

$20

$40

$60

$80

$100

$120

$140

$160

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North Carolina

Ern

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Gre

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Iowa

Gra

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South Carolina

Da

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Bu

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Montana

Co

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Gid

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Mc

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Arizona

Loe

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Georgia 1

**

*Won plurality of votes,

advanced to runoff

Rep.

Dem.

Winner

Dollars Spent Per Vote

Georgia 2

Mc

Sa

lly

Ke

lly

Source: FEC : AP accessed 11/9/20

Trump

Biden

Composition of the Senate Remains Undecided

Georgia

Loeffler vs. Warnock

D: 50 seats for majority

R: 51 seats for majorityDemocratic Party Republican Party

48

Georgia

Perdue vs. Ossoff

The balance of the Senate will come down to runoffs in Georgia.

Runoff: January 5, 2021

50

Republicans Made Unexpected Gains in the House

Source: Cook Report : WP

Of the 13 Democrats who appear to have lost re-election last week, 12 were freshman members elected during the 2018 midterms.

After watching Democrats capture 40 seats in the 2018 midterms, Republicans’ potential net gain of ten seats in a presidential year may give them confidence in seeing a path to the House majority in 2022.

If these elections are certified as indicated above, the Democrats’ margin will shrink from 35 to 11 seats.

Competitive Democratic Races Lost Potentially Lost Democratic Races

California Rep. Gil Cisneros California Rep. TJ Cox

California Rep. Harley Rouda New York Rep. Anthony Brindisi

Florida Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell

Florida Rep. Donna Shalala

Iowa Rep. Abby Finkenauer

Minnesota Rep. Collin Peterson

New Mexico Rep. Xochitl Torres Small

New York Rep. Max Rose

Oklahoma Rep. Kendra Horn

South Carolina Rep. Joe Cunningham

Utah Rep. Ben McAdams

GOP Maintains Edge in State Capitals

23 27

2021

Governorships

Rep.Dem.

Republicans held, if not expanded, their control of state legislatures and governorships. Republicans will have a trifecta in 24 states in 2021 as states begin electoral redistricting.

Source: Multistate

39 59

State Legislative

Chamber Control

Rep.

Dem.

This marked the fewest legislative chamber switches since 1946.

Party Controls State Legislature and Governorship (Trifectas)

Rep. Trifecta

Rep. Trifecta Gain

Divided Government

Dem. Trifecta

‘Blue State’ Voters Reject Tax Hikes

Illinois “Fair” Tax

Proposal to amend the state’s constitution from a flat-rate income

tax to a graduated income tax.

DEFEATED

California Prop. 15

Proposal to remove property tax caps on commercial properties.

DEFEATED

Colorado Prop. 116

Proposal to reduce the state income tax flat rate by 0.08%.

PASSED

Source: Politico : Politico : Politico Accessed 11/9/20

Tax increase ballot measures failed in Democratically-controlled states.

What to Expect for the Remainder of the Year

Congressional Lame Duck Agenda

Government funding bill

Source: WP : Speaker

Leader McConnell and House Democrats have signaled a COVID stimulus package is

a priority for the lame duck.

1.

2.

3.

4.

NDAA

Tax Extenders (e.g. CFC Look-Through)

COVID Stimulus

Known Transition Team Key Players

Transition Co-Chairs• Ted Kaufman – Former Senator from Delaware

• Jeff Zients – Former acting White House budget director

• Yohannes Abraham – Former Obama White House aide

• Anita Dunn – Senior advisor

• Michelle Lujan Grisham – Governor of New Mexico

• Cedric Richmond – Congressman

Key Liaisons Between Administration and Capitol Hill• House Majority Whip James Clyburn (D-SC)

• Sen. Chris Coons (D-DE)

• Rep. Lisa Blunt Rochester (D-DE)

• Rep. Brendan Boyle (D-PA)

• Rep. Filemon Vela (D-TX)

Source: NYT : Financial Times : H/T Ogilvy Government Relations

Biden has already assembled a team of 526 advisors to assist his transition.

Additional Key Biden Advisors

Long-Time Political Advisors• Steve Ricchetti

• Ron Klain

• Valerie Biden Owens

Former Staff• Evan Ryan

• Bruce Reed

• Ben Harris

Young Progressives• Symone Sanders

• Gautam Raghavan

State and local elected officials • Los Angeles Mayor Eric Garcetti

• Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer

• California Gov. Gavin Newsom

• Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms

Source: Ogilvy Government Relations

Biden’s Cabinet Options

Source: Axios : Politico

Under pressure from both parties, Biden’s transition decisions will frame his administration’s priorities for the next four years.

Progressive Cabinet picks may signal

the administration plans to promote a

partisan agenda via executive action.

More moderate nominees may

indicate a push towards bipartisan

action.

If the Republicans keep their majority in the Senate, they could block more

contentious nominees, forcing Biden to choose more centrist cabinet picks.

• White House Ebola Response Coordinator (2014-15) and Senior WH aide to President Obama, responsible for implementing the Recovery Act

• Chief of Staff to VP Joe Biden (2009-2011) and VP Al Gore (1995-1999)

• Associate Counsel to President Clinton in charge of judicial selection

• Chief Council to the U.S. Senate Committee on the Judiciary (1989-1992)

Ron Klain

Likely Chief of Staff

Source: Brownstein Hyatt Farber Schreck : Harvard

Potential Secretary of the Treasury

• U.S. Senator from MA (2013 - present)

• Former Presidential candidate

• Assistant to the President & Special Advisor to the Secretary of the Treasury on the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (2010-2011)

Elizabeth Warren

• Visiting law professor at Duke University (2018-present)

• Former Deputy Secretary of Treasury

• Former Federal Reserve Governor (2010-2014)

Sarah Bloom Raskin

• Member of the U.S. Federal Reserve's Board of Governors

• Served as the U.S. Under Secretary of the Treasury for International Affairs & as Counselor to the Secretary of the Treasury (2009 -2013)

Lael Brainard

• President and CEO of TIAA-CREF (2008-present)

• Former Federal Reserve and Governor

• Served on Obama’s Council on Jobs and Competitiveness and the Economic Recovery Advisory Board

Roger Ferguson

Source: Politico : Financial Times : Prospect

Other potential picks:• Mellody Hobson, President and Co-CEO of Ariel Investments• Raphael Bostic, President and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta

• Governor of Rhode Island (2015-present)

• General Treasurer of Rhode Island (2011-2015)

Gina Raimondo

• CEO of Quibi

• Former CEO of Hewlett Packard (2011-2018)

• Former CEO of eBay (1998-2008)

• Former Republican candidate for Governor of California (2010)

• President and Co-CEO of Ariel Investments (1991-present)

• Recipient of Princeton’s Woodrow Wilson Award (2019)

Potential Secretary of Commerce

Meg Whitman Mellody Hobson

Source: Politico : Financial Times

• Congressional Representative from California (2017-present) on House Ways & Means Committee

• Served on House USMCA working group and helped negotiate stronger labor provisions in USMCA

• President and Co-Founder of McLarty Associates (1998-present)

• Former White House special advisor on Western Hemisphere affairs

• Former General Council of the Senate Judiciary Committee

Potential U.S. Trade Representative

Rep. Jimmy Gomez Nelson Cunningham

Source: Politico : Reuters

Potential Economic Advisors

•Jared Bernstein, Senior Fellow at the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities

•Heather Boushey, President and CEO of the Washington Center for Equitable Growth

Council of Economic Advisors

• Jason Furman, American economist and professor at Harvard University; served as chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (2013-2017)

• Lael Brainard, member of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s Board of Governors

• Sarah Bloom Raskin, American attorney; formerly a member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System and a former United States Deputy Secretary of the Treasury

• Larry Summers, American economist; former director of the National Economic Council for President Obama

National Economic Council

Source: Brownstein Hyatt Farber Schreck : CNBC

What to Expect in 2021

Policies Impacting America’s Global Competitiveness

Known Policy

Themes

China

•COVID Response

•IP/AI Protections

•Human Rights

•Regional Militarization

Supply Chain Accountability

•Buy American

•Human Rights

•Def. Prod. Act

•Tax Policy

‘Technological Sovereignty’

•Data Privacy Patchwork

•US Nat. Security Reviews/EOs

Political Participation

•Lobbying Disclosure

•Corp. Political Activities (e.g. PACS)Gov. Revenue

•State Shortfalls

•Federal Tax Increases

•New Congressional Priorities

Environmental Responsibility

•Paris Agreement

•Green New Deal

•Regulatory Activism

Trade Priorities

•DST Retaliation

•U.S.-EU FTA

•U.S.-UK FTA

•TPA Renewal

Economic Recovery

•Income Inequality

•Infrastructure

•Business Visas

•Workforce Dev.

For GBA members, there are several important policy themes certain to be at the forefront for policymakers next year.

Each of these themes contain important policy considerations and implications for U.S. competitiveness in attracting FDI.

US-China Policy Contentions

Human Rights

COVID-19 Transparency

Interference in the U.S. Political Process

IP Protection & Data Theft

Hong Kong Crackdown

Unilateral Trade Tariffs

Currency Manipulation/

State Subsidization

Coercive Inbound

Investment Policies

Regional Militarization

Political Rhetoric

CFIUS Scrutiny

Export Controls

• Of the dozen distinct issues identified, eight could have direct implications for GBA members.

• As policymakers seeks to address these concerns, the risk that they will inadvertently impact the broader inbound business community remains high.

New Frontiers on National Security Reviews

Commercial Activity & Supply Chains

ICTS Supply Chain EO

BIS Entity List

Bulk Power Supply EO

“National Strategy for Critical and Emerging Technologies”

ECRA

“National Strategy to Secure 5G”

Critical Minerals Supply Chain EO

Mergers & Acquisitions

Expanded CFIUS Scope Under FIRRMA

FCC “Team Telecom”

Federal Procurement Policies

Buy American / Pandemic Response

Federal Acquisition Security Council (FASC)

DOD Procurement Bans

Over the past five years, we’ve seen a dramatic expansion of America’s national security review apparatus.

Rethinking Biden’s Plan for Tax Increases

If Congress remains split, President-elect Biden’s campaign promises on taxes look less certain.

It appears unlikely he will be able to implement the most ambitious parts of his tax agenda, such as increasing the corporate rate to 28 percent and making changes in international

corporate tax policy.

It is possible President Biden opts to work with Leader McConnell to implement smaller reforms in exchange for addressing upcoming phaseouts in TCJA.

Republicans may seek to extend 100% bonus depreciation and delay Section 163(j)’s change from an EBITDA to an EBIT standard in exchange for these reforms.

Biden could, however, halt taxpayer-favorable regulatory structures, such as the pending replacement of debt/equity regulations

(Section 385).

Source: Linked above : H/T Akin Gump

Biden Campaign on Trade

Buy American Buy American

• $400 billion procurement investments for “Made in America” including pharmaceuticals, products in

telecom and AI industries, clean energy products and building materials

• Update international trade rules on government procurement

• Tax benefit claw-back provision for companies outsourcing jobs

China Preference for multilateralism in countering China

• "Hands may be tied" on removing tariffs• Maintain steel and aluminum tariffs

Trade

Agreements

Free Trade Agreements will take a “backseat”

• TPA renewal is not a priority

• U.S.-U.K. trade deal negotiations may be paused

• Will end U.S.-EU trade war

DST Retaliation Restart OECD negotiations on Digital Services Taxes

• Completion of Section 301 investigations

WTO Potential WTO reform

Tariffs Review Trump’s trade tariffs on global imports

Additional

Policies

Repairing relationships with U.S. allies

• May include negotiating an end to the ongoing Boeing/Airbus subsidy dispute and associated tariffs

Potential Policy Timing

First 100 Days

COVID health and economic response will dominate

Executive Orders reversing the Muslim travel ban, reinstating the DACA program, instituting new White House ethics guidelines

COVID response measures• Appoint supply chain commander to oversee PPE and testing• Increase use of Defense Production Act• Rejoin WHO

Reenter Paris climate accords and re-establish Obama-era environmental regulations

President-elect Biden announced that his top four priorities will be COVID-19 economic recovery, racial equity and climate change.

Source: Biden

First Year

Address expiring TCJA provisions

COVID vaccine disbursement

DISCLOSE Act

Bipartisan interest in strengthening FARA

Review of nonimmigrant visa programs

Predictions

Expect a continued bipartisan reassessment of global connections.

The Biden Administration will focus on domestic priorities but expect an effort to rebuild relationships with allies and continued emphasis on curbing China’s influence.

Progressive Democrats will assert their agenda.

It’s an open question on whether it will be welcomed by the Biden Administration and House leadership.

“The leadership and elements of the party — frankly, people in some of the most important

decision-making positions in the party — are becoming so blinded to this anti-activist sentiment that they are blinding themselves to the very assets that they offer.”

“We need to not ever use the word ‘socialist’ or ‘socialism’ ever again. Because while

people think it doesn’t matter, it does matter. And we lost good

members because of it. If we are classifying Tuesday as a success from a congressional standpoint, we will get… torn apart in 2022.”

Source: NYT : CNN

– Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D-VA) – Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY)

Speaker Pelosi’s Challenge

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi

President Trump’s future political pertinence is an open question.

Expect congressional Republicans and 2024 GOP presidential hopefuls to wrestle with Trump’s influence in future elections.

About GBAAs the premier voice of international companies in the United States, the Global Business Alliance (GBA) actively promotes and defends an open economy that welcomes international companies to invest in America. Our members are American companies with global heritage and an indispensable part of our nation’s economic success. When America is open for business, we all benefit.