Post-2015 Education Scenarios,

ASEAN Integration, and

the Post-EFA Education Agenda in

A working paper developed by

Dr Sheldon Shaeffer, Consultant

as background document for the SEAMEO Study and Development of Post-2015 Education Scenarios and Post-EFA Agenda in Southeast Asia

conducted by the

Southeast Asian Ministers of Education Organization (SEAMEO) Secretariat

in collaboration with SEAMEO Member Countries, SEAMEO Centres, development

partners and invited experts

December 2013 to May 2014

Southeast Asian Ministers of Education Organization

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Post-2015 Education Scenarios, ASEAN Integration,

and the Post-EFA Education Agenda in Southeast Asia

I. Introduction

2015 brings together a conjunction of events of great significance to the nations of Southeast Asia. First is what is likely to be the approval of a new set of Education for All (EFA) targets at an international conference on education to be held in Korea in May 2015. Second is what will also likely be the universal endorsement by the United Nations General Assembly of a new set of International Development Goals, in some way extending, amending, and/or replacing the current Millennium Development Goals (MDGs), most probably in the form of Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). And third is the declaration of an integrated Community of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) with related economic, socio-cultural, and political-security “communities”. All three of these, to some extent or another, will be concerned with education, and all three will therefore have significant implications for the education systems of Southeast Asian governments, in particular their Ministries of Education. This paper will attempt to do several things in relation to these events:

provide background on the development and achievements in education globally and in Southeast Asia

describe the processes underway to determine the post-2015 development agenda and plan for the full implementation of the ASEAN Community

identify major driving forces that are important to the further development of education, particularly in Southeast Asia

offer ideas for strengthened or new areas of focus for the further development of education in Southeast Asia after 2015

ultimately, promote an in-depth discussion on the future of education in Southeast Asia

II. Summary of Progress towards Education for All1

Governments of the world have long committed themselves to guaranteeing the long-proclaimed right to education. This commitment, contained in a variety of international instruments, finally took the form of the process of Education for All, the subject of two international conferences, numerous other international and regional meetings, national consultations and plans (at least in developing nations of the world), and national, regional, and global assessments of progress, some systematic and continuous and some less so. The process continues and will reach some kind of climax at the third international EFA conference to be held in Korea in May, 2015.

A. Jomtien – the World Conference on Education for All, 1990

The vision of Jomtien was simple and powerful: Every person - child, youth and adult - shall be able to benefit from educational opportunities designed to meet their basic

1 Some of this analysis is derived from Summary of Progress towards Education for All by Sheldon Shaeffer,

prepared for the High Level Group Meeting on EFA held in Jomtien, Thailand, in 2011.

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learning needs. In other words: Education for All. Although Universal Primary Education had long been part of the rhetoric of governments and international development agencies and advocated in their policies and programmes, the World Conference on Education for All held in Thailand in 1990 – attended by almost every country of the world, every development agency, and a large collection of national and international non-government agencies – made it both universal and official: education, not only in primary school but for young children, youth, and adults as well, really IS for all.

The Jomtien Declaration of the World Conference on Education for all and its Framework for Action, based on a background document, Meeting Basic Learning Needs2 did not lay out global goals but rather proposed six dimensions against which countries would set their own targets. This proved more easily said than done, of course. Between 1990 and 2000, many national EFA committees were formed and EFA action plans and programmes formulated, but these were often neither comprehensive nor credible and were often inspired more by multilateral and bilateral donors than owned by the Ministries that were meant to implement them. Donors and some governments did increase their funding to education, data were collected a bit more systematically and reliably (leading to a mid-term review in Amman, Jordan), and some progress was made towards the Jomtien goals – but to a large part, its vision was not realised.

B. Dakar - The World Education Forum, 2000

The World Education Forum in Dakar in 2000 reported on the decade‟s results (generally disappointing), tweaked the goals (with a greater focus on gender, quality, equity, and the “learning and life skills” needed for emerging knowledge societies), and attempted to reinforce the vision of Jomtien (but with less of its inspiring rhetoric). But its most important outcomes dealt more with better implementation rather than different content. These included the following:

greater national ownership of the EFA process and goals, with more serious national EFA plans developed by Ministries of Education (more often embedded in longer-term education sector plans and therefore concerned with more than universal primary education), mechanisms for implementing them, and funds to finance them

more government and donor funding for, and stronger donor coordination and harmonisation towards, “credible” EFA plans and programmes

the greater participation of non-government organisations (NGOs) at national, regional, and global levels, in the achievement of EFA goals; the Global Campaign for Education and its networks and programmes are a good example of such participation

a greater focus on monitoring and assessing progress towards the goals. The last led both to a series of annual, comprehensive, and analytic Global Monitoring Reports and to more systematic efforts by both governments and NGOs, implemented in different ways in different regions of the world, to regularly assess whether and how the goals were being achieved (and if not, why not) and to build national capacity to do so.

2 World Conference on Education for All. 1990. Meeting Basic Learning Needs. Paris: UNESCO.

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C. Achievements since Dakar3

EFA achievements since Dakar have been many and varied, quite different, in fact, among regions of the world. The largest (in size and population) and most diverse region, Asia and the Pacific, has shown substantial economic growth over the last decade and more, even during the economic crisis of 2009-2010, with an increasing number of middle-income countries and ever fewer people living in poverty. Given the diversity of the region, there is no one programme or approach which comprehensively guides educational development. Considerable progress has been made in regard to most of the EFA dimensions, but serious income inequities remain across and within countries, and this leads to low school enrolment and completion among traditionally excluded groups such as girls, the extreme poor, children with disabilities and living in remote areas, and ethnic/linguistic minorities. Goal 1: Early childhood care and education (ECCE) “Expanding and improving comprehensive early childhood care and education, especially for the most vulnerable and disadvantaged children.” Globally, considerable progress has been made in achieving the first Dakar goal. Early childhood well-being is improving in most countries; child mortality and malnutrition rates have declined in many countries in all regions of the world. Enrolment in pre-school programmes has also expanded over the last decade -- enrolment in such programmes has increased from 33% in 1999 to 50% in 20114 -- as more and more governments have realised the positive impact which a comprehensive, multi-sectoral approach to the health, nutrition, and cognitive and psycho-social development of young children can have on both educational efficiency and later social outcomes. Many countries in Asia and the Pacific have developed ECCE policies, both multi-sectoral and comprehensive in nature. This has helped increase the gross enrolment ratio in pre-primary education to 57% in East Asia5 -- but with a range from 13% in Cambodia to 100% in Thailand. The important parenthetical part of this goal, however -- “especially for the most vulnerable and disadvantaged children“ -- has been less successfully met. Around the world, in other words, expansion of ECCE programmes has largely been to the benefit of urban, well-to-do groups, thus denying such programmes to the most disadvantaged households which have the most to gain from them and increasing the gap in school readiness between the rich and the poor and between urban and rural populations. In some Southeast Asian countries the pre-school enrolment among children from upper socio-economic quintile families is many times that of children from the lowest quintile. On another issue related to this goal, Ministries of Education have been slow to assume the role they could and should assume in regard to the well-being of children aged 0-3. Such children are usually seen as the responsibility of ministries of health and/or social welfare when, in fact, the education sector can also contribute significantly to their well-being. They can, for example, ensure that any adult education/literacy courses and even formal school curricula (especially in secondary school) contain messages important to future parents in regard to the health and nutrition of both mothers and young children and the essential need for these children to receive stronger cognitive and psycho-social support and stimulation from birth.

3 The goals listed below are from the World Forum on Education for All held in Dakar in 2000. 4 Unless otherwise stated, EFA goal data are taken from the 2012 Global Monitoring Report using data

collected in 2010 5 East Asia in this document refers to Southeast Asia but also includes China.

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Goal 2: Universal Primary Education “Ensuring that by 2015 all children, particularly girls, children in difficult circumstances, and those belonging to ethnic minorities, have access to and complete free and compulsory primary education of good quality.” Globally, considerable progress has also been made in primary school enrolment and in some cases, in countries which define basic education as extending beyond primary school, in secondary school enrolment as well. From 2000-2011, the global enrolment rate grew from 83% to 90%, and the number of children out of school dropped from 102 to 57 million. The rate of this decrease is slowing, however, and if lower secondary education is included, 127 million children are not in school. In addition, perhaps 250 million children graduating from primary schools are not able to read or write6. This growth in enrolment since Jomtien has been unprecedented and reflects not only additional resources from national governments and development agencies but also a range of educational innovations and reforms such as the abolition of school fees, the greater use of mother tongue in the early grades, and the expansion of ECCD programmes; in other words, the world knows much more now about what is needed to get children in school and keep them there. But this apparent progress masks several problems:

the view that 98%, or even 95%, is “good enough” and that therefore EFA Goal 2 has been achieved when, in fact, that final percentage must be enrolled and helped to complete basic education if this essential EFA goal is to be reached. This requires an increased commitment to equity through targeted plans, strategies, and programmes linked to specific budgets to address the education needs of the excluded.

disparities within nations in access and achievement between girls and boys, urban and rural locations, socio-economic classes, majority and minority ethnic/linguistic groups, and the “abled” and those with disabilities. Even high national NERs can hide large differences between the “included” and the “excluded” within society. Thus, there are serious disparities in the region, with the adjusted net enolment rate for East Asia at 96% but with Timor Leste, the Philippines, and Thailand having rates lower of 90% or less leading to a likely total of over 2.5 million children of primary school age remaining out or school.

a need to directly address the barriers and needs of remaining out-of-school groups. The closer countries move towards UPE, the greater difficulty of reaching the last of the unreached. With current population growth as it is, this could mean more children out of school in 2015 than there are today. In response to this, many countries, such as Lao PDR and Timor Leste have developed comprehensive inclusive education policies, strategies and action plans.

high repetition and drop-out (or, more accurately, “push-out”) rates. Primary school completion rates are quite high in the region but less than 90% in Cambodia, Thailand, and Timor Leste. This is partly because repetition rates exceed 15% in Timor Leste and Lao PDR, and although the region‟s dropout rate – children leaving school early -- is 9%, it is over 25% in the Philippines, Timor Leste, Cambodia, and Lao PDR. Such processes occur first in the early grades often due to children not being ready for school (with no pre-school experience, for example) or to the school

6 Abuel-Ealeh, Shaharazad. 2013. Education Saves Lives: Ensuring the Right to Education in the Post-2015

Development Agenda. Global Campaign for Education.

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not being ready for the child (e.g., teaching in a language the child does not understand). But it also can occur either in later grades, as older children leave for family work or less able children are nudged out of school, or in the critical transition to what is often a more expensive, less accessible, and often less relevant secondary school. This means that in some countries a large percentage of children never complete primary education.

Goal 3: Learning and Skills for Young People and Adults “Ensuring that the learning needs of all young people and adults are met through equitable access to appropriate learning and life-skills programmes.” Progress towards this goal is essential, for individual well-being, social stability, and national development. But existing local labour markets often simply do not have the capacity to absorb the number of school graduates wanting to work – leading to increasing (and increasingly dangerous) under-employment and unemployment and, potentially, greater social and political instability. On the other hand, those who do graduate from secondary or higher education, especially in higher income countries, often do not have the skills required for rapidly changing labour markers and expanding knowledge economies. The vagueness of the goal has led to various interpretations and has been defined as covering formal secondary education, life skills, technical and vocational education and training (TVET), skills development, continuing education, lifelong learning, and/or the learning needs of youth and adults; thus, progress towards this goal is difficult to assess. Globally, in 2011 69 million adolescents were out of school and the extent of youth unemployment is only growing (1/5 of the youth in Indonesia are unemployed). In Southeast Asia, the secondary enrolment rate is 52% with a lower secondary rate of 77% and a senior secondary rate of 52%, but attendance and completion rates are still too often linked to factors such as SES, ethnicity, sex, and location; in many countries, girls continue to be disadvantaged at this level. The percentage of students in secondary school who attend TVET programmes is only 8% -- which rises to 16% when China is added to the calculation.7 Goal 4: Adult Literacy “Achieving a 50% improvement in levels of adult literacy by 2015, especially for women, and equitable access to basic and continuing education for all adults.” Literacy rates have also increased around the world, more substantially, of course, in populations aged 15-24 than among older age groups. As more children complete a formal education, they leave school (at least partly) literate. But the absolute number of illiterates remains persistently and inexcusably high; the adult literacy rate of 84% still leaves 774 million people illiterate. Reaching these illiterates – many of whom, such as women, suffer from entrenched biases within education systems or have special needs related to extreme poverty, language use (mother tongue vs. official language), poverty, and disability – is not a problem easily solved, especially given the lack of innovative responses to illiteracy and the general disinterest in literacy by governments and development agencies alike. But even good literacy rates must be viewed with caution, for two reasons:

Official literacy rates are often inflated, still largely based on self-report. Seldom are ministries willing or able to carry out systematic, nationally representative sample surveys of literacy performance (reading, writing, comprehension). Where they have, such as in Laos where such study was done a decade ago, the results can indicate literacy rates 20%-30% lower than the official figures.

7 Ibid. p. 36

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The definition of functional literacy, by necessity, keeps changing – and changing faster than the quality of attempts to measure it. Assessments made which are sensitive to the literacy or literacies needed to function in a particular society show that even very developed countries have high rates of illiteracy.

Goal 5: Gender parity and equality “Eliminating gender disparities in primary and secondary schooling by 2005, and achieving gender equality in education by 2015, with a focus on ensuring girls’ full and equal access to and achievement in basic education of good quality.” Many countries have reached gender parity in access and completion of pre-school and primary school, even across place of residence, income levels, and ethnicity. In fact, East Asia and the Pacific are reaching gender parity at all levels of education. But the gender parity issue is becoming ever murkier, especially at secondary level, including a growing number of countries in Southeast Asia, as boys are becoming more and more the unschooled and the underachieving. In East Asia and the Pacific, for example, the gender parity index for tertiary education is 108.8 in favour of girls. There are many reasons for this: male-unfriendly school environments and curricula, the perceived irrelevance of schooling to their likely future, and their family‟s need for their labour either at home or in a workplace. Because the contexts for such low performance are so different, the responses must also be context-specific. Little of the discussion around gender, unfortunately, revolves around the larger issue of gender equality, which the Millennium Development Goals handle more comprehensively that the EFA targets. Inequality between men and women in career tracks and income (inside and outside of education), gender-biased education budgets, textbooks which continue to stereotype girls/women and boys/men – all of these confirm the need to move beyond numerical parity to the larger issue of equality. Achieving true gender equality therefore means questioning many assumptions about how subjects are taught and what teaching materials are used. Goal 6: Education Quality “Improving every aspect of the quality of education and ensuring the excellence for all, so that recognized and measurable learning outcomes are achieved by all learners, especially in literacy, numeracy, and essential life-skills.” With more and more children included in school, at least according to official figures, even more attention is being paid to ensuring that pupils are not simply included physically in class but also “included” in learning – in other words, that they are receiving an education of good quality. Irrelevant curricula, untrained or unmotivated teachers, the use of a teaching language which the pupils do not understand, and/or the lack of textbooks, among other factors, can discourage many children from ever enrolling, push them out of school, or leave them still in school but not learning. Globally, estimates indicate that 250 million children after 4 years of school do not have basic reading, writing, and arithmetic skills.8 An increasing number of national assessments of children in the early grades in Southeast Asia is showing similarly disappointing results. As a result of such findings, the frameworks used to analyse quality are many and still increasing. But some clarity has been reached about what constitutes quality and how to achieve it. This includes the following trends:

8 See, for example, the EFA Global Monitoring Report 2012 and the work of the Learning Metrics Task Force

of the Brookings Institution.

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seeing “basic education” as encompassing 9-10 years; designing such an education in a more holistic, coherent, and continuous manner; and ensuring that the end of primary school (and any examination that goes with it) does not become a barrier to further education

developing much more comprehensive and systematic approaches to educating (and re-educating) teachers. This begins from the more careful selection of teacher candidates, through better quality initial teacher education, deployment to where good teachers are needed the most, serious induction and probation processes, and continuing professional development and depends on ensuring that teaching is once again seen as a profession of “first choice” rather than “last chance”; this, in turn, requires raising both the status of the profession (e.g., through higher standards of qualification and certification) and teacher salaries and other benefits.

greater accountability of the school for its outcomes, not only up the system to the local education office and, ultimately, the Ministry of Education but also, and increasingly so, out to parents of its pupils and the larger community surrounding the school. This implies a greater role for the community in school-based management, school self-assessment, and the development of school improvement plans.

more comprehensive competency standards for students (and also teachers) and more accurate and useful achievement assessment processes. All regions of the world are moving towards the common, cross-national definition of desired student competencies and toward clearer systems of student assessment and system evaluation. But the domination of school-leaving examinations or school entrance examinations as the sole requirement for entrance into higher levels of education, especially for elite private schools, persists. This, in turn, skews the system even more towards teaching only “to the test” and private tutoring, and this, in turn, reinforces the gap between the rich and the poor.

non-classroom factors. One important progression from Jomtien to Dakar was a greater focus on a broader definition of quality, beyond classroom inputs, processes, and outputs. This has led to a greater concern factors such as a healthy, protective school environment and the importance of harmonious, positive human relationships within schools.

D. Experience elsewhere in the world

The challenges of education in Southeast Asia are not unique in the world. In fact, other regions of the world, both developed and developing, face many of the same problems and, in many nations, to a much more serious extent. In Latin America and the Caribbean, since 2000 the region as a whole has shown steady if not remarkable economic growth and improvements both in general living conditions and in educational access and completion. But the complexity of the region‟s past and its resulting -- and enduring -- structural problems based on social, economic, ethnic, and gender inequalities remain as serious constraints to further progress, especially to the eradication of remaining inequities in educational provision and particularly in educational quality. Marginalised groups, especially indigenous groups and urban slum dwellers, remain at a serious disadvantage. In addition, political and ideological concerns are very important in this region.

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In Sub-Saharan Africa, many countries elaborated EFA national plans post-Dakar, and many, although heavily indebted but with credible EFA plans, were supported by funds from the Fast Track Initiative and other bilateral and multilateral sources. This had led to considerable progress in reaching the EFA targets in some countries, including achieving gender parity, at least in primary school; expanding basic education to include additional years of secondary education; and finding a better balance between academic education and technical-vocational and training. But many serious challenges remain, notably inadequate infrastructure and teacher resources and persistent geographic and socio-economic disparities which leave many children (girls, the poor, ethnic minorities) never enrolled in, or eventually pushed out of, school. In the Arab States, much change is occurring – and rapidly -- in a region that is more diverse politically, culturally, socially, economically then it first appears. The aggregate numbers in education have improved over time, but many governments of the Arab States would be the first to admit that from a qualitative perspective – inequities in access, low levels of internal and external efficiencies and learning achievement, the mismatch between educational products and labour market needs – their education systems are not yet responding adequately to the demands of EFA. This is seen as being particularly important given the increasing role that knowledge economies play in the development process and the slow but steady demographic changes in the region leading to large adolescent and youth populations and resulting pressure on job creation in a context of already high unemployment in the labour market.

E. EFA Post-2015

The recent General Conference of UNESCO authorized the organisation to proceed with the development of a new EFA agenda closely integrated in the broader international development framework and promoting an overarching goal with global objectives, targets, and indicators and specific target setting and indicator development at the national level. The suggested goal is: “Ensure equitable quality education and lifelong learning for all by 2030”. Specific objectives relate to basic education (from ECCE to lower secondary), post-basic education including tertiary, quality and relevant teaching an l earning, youth and adult literacy, and skills for life and work.9 National EFA assessments of progress, regional summaries and preparatory conferences, and a global meeting in Korea in 2015 will complete this process – the issue being, of course, the extent to which this process, which lags considerably behind the MDG/SDG process outlined below, will influence the outcome of the United Nations. III. The Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) and the Sustainable Development

Goals (SDGs)

A. History and Progress to Date

In September 2000, building upon a decade of major United Nations conferences and summits, world leaders came together at United Nations Headquarters in New York to adopt the United Nations Millennium Declaration, committing their nations to a new global partnership to reduce extreme poverty and setting out a series of time-bound targets - with a deadline of 2015 - that have become known as the Millennium Development Goals. These goals were based on an earlier set of International Development Goals proposed by OECD and then further refined to meet the aspirations of the Millennium Declaration approved by the General Assembly in 2000. The MDGs include the following:

9 UNESCO. 2013. Concept Note on Education Post-2015. Document submitted to the 37th Session of the

General Conference. UNESCO: Paris.

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To eradicate extreme poverty and hunger

To achieve universal primary education

To promote gender equality and empowering women

To reduce child mortality rates

To improve maternal health

To combat HIV/AIDS, malaria, and other diseases

To ensure environmental sustainability

To develop a global partnership for development Each goal has related targets and indicators. Those related to education follows, with current progress shown for Southeast Asia as assessed by the recent MDG regional report: Goal 2: Achieve universal primary education10

Target 2A: Ensure that, by 2015, children everywhere, boys and girls alike, will be able to complete a full course of primary schooling

o Indicator: Enrollment in primary education -- Off-track: Philippines, Timor

Leste (no data from Myanmar) o Indicator: Reaching the last grade – Off-track: Cambodia, Indonesia, Lao

PDR, Myanmar, Philippines (no data from Thailand and Timor Leste) o Indicator: Completion of primary school -- Off-track: Laos, Philippines, Timor

Leste (no data from Thailand)

Goal 3: Promote gender equality and empower women Target 3A: Eliminate gender disparity in primary and secondary education

preferably by 2005, and at all levels by 2015 o Indictor: Ratios of girls to boys in primary school – all achieved o Indicator: Ratios of girls to boys in secondary school – Off-track: Lao PDR

(no data from Vietnam) o Indicator: Ratios of girls to boys in tertiary education – Off-track: Cambodia

and Timor Leste It is not completely clear why the education-related goals in the MDGs were both so narrow in focus (they only selected issues related to two of the six EFA goals) and unfeasible (eliminating gender disparity at all levels), but they have added to and -- in some cases perhaps – superseded the attention governments were paying to the EFA goals (thus, for example, limiting this focus to only universal primary education). Globally, some of the MDGs have led to considerable achievements11; the number of out-of-school children dropped from 102 million to 57 million from 2000 to 2011, and primary education enrolment in developing countries reached 90 per cent in 2010. But early school leaving remains persistent. Among the 137 million children who entered first grade in 2011, 34 million are likely to leave before reaching the last grade of primary school. This translates into an early school leaving rate of 25 per cent – the same level as in 2000. In addition, gender gaps in access to education have narrowed, but disparities remain among regions in all levels of education, particularly for the most excluded

10 ESCAP, ADB, and UNDP. 2013. Asia-Pacific Aspirations: Perspectives’ for a Post-2015 Development

Agenda – Asia-Pacific Regional MDG Report 2012/2013. Bangkok. 11 The following data come from United Nations Millennium Development Goals at

http://www.un.org/millenniumgoals/

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and marginalized. There has been major progress across all developing regions in reducing gender gaps in primary school attendance, but access to secondary and university-level education remains highly unequal including, more and more often, to the disadvantage of boys.

B. The MDGs post-201512

Unlike the process that led to the MDGs, the process of developing a new set of post-2015 international development goals has been lengthy, inclusive, and intense. There have been literally dozens of organisations (UN, bilateral, private sector, academic, non-governmental) which have hosted hundreds of conferences, seminars, and workshops and produced hundreds of reports and at least 150 recommendations in regard to draft goals and targets related to the post-2015 agenda – and we are still 1-1/2 years away from the final approval of the agenda at the 2015 General Assembly. To foster an inclusive global conversation, the UN Development Group has coordinated national, global and 11 thematic consultations (including one on education organised by UNESCO and UNICEF in Dakar in March, 2013). To date more than 90 consultations, involving partnerships with multiple stakeholders, including local ministries, businesses and civil society groups, have been supported by the UN with more planned. Civil society organizations from all over the world continue to engage in the post-2015 process, while academia and other research institutions, including think tanks, remain particularly active. The process started at the September 2010 MDG Summit where UN Member States initiated steps towards advancing the development agenda beyond 2015. In June 2012 at Rio+20, the UN Conference on Sustainable Development, UN Member States adopted „The Future We Want‟ outcome document, which set in motion many of the inter-governmental processes for the post-2015 development agenda. Through the MY World survey, the United Nations global survey for a better world, more than 1.4 million people have voted on which six development issues most impact their lives, and the number of voters continues to grow. A “good education” was voted as the top priority, even before better health care and good governenace. Complementing MY World is the World We Want online platform, where citizens have engaged further in various consultations on the post-2015 development process. Inputs from the global conversation were included in the following reports presented to the UN Secretary-General and Member States:

The Global Thematic Consultation on Education in the Post-2015 Development Agenda (UNESCO and UNICEF 2013): Envisioning Education in the Post-2015 Development Agenda

The UN System Task Team of UNDP and UN DESA: Realizing the future we want for all (2012) and A renewed global partnership for development (2013) with four major pillars related to environmental sustainable, inclusive economic development, inclusive social development, and peace and security

The report of the High-Level Panel of Eminent Persons on the Post-2015 Development Agenda (2013) chaired by the Presidents/Prime Ministers of Indonesia, Liberia, and the United Kingdom

The UN Development Group: A million voices: The world we want (2013)

12 Much of the following section on the post-2015 architecture is taken from Kenneth King and Robert Palmer.

2013. Education and skills Post-2015: What Evidence, Whose Perspectives? NORRAG Working Paper #6.

Geneva: NORRAG.

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The UN Global Compact (a business perspective on a future agenda): Architects for a better world (2013)

The Sustainable Development Solutions Network, with 10 expert thematic groups including one on Early Childhood Development, Education, and Transition to Work: An action agenda for the sustainable development (2013) and A regional perspective on the post-2015 development agenda (2013)

On 25 September 2013, the President of the UN General Assembly hosted a special event to follow up on efforts made towards achieving the Millennium Development Goals. At this event, UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon presented to Member States his report entitled “A Life of Dignity for All” drawing on the work of the High-Level Panel, the UNDG consultations, and UN global Compact, and the SDSN. The report provides a vision for bold action to achieve the MDGs and calls for a new and responsive sustainable development framework that meets the needs of both people and the planet; it also indicates the importance of high-quality education and learning from early childhood to post-primary as well as life skills and vocational education and training. Also in September 2013, the Secretary-General hosted a high-level forum to catalyze and accelerate further action to achieve the MDGs and enrich the deliberations of the General Assembly and beyond. The forum focused on concrete examples of scaling up success and identifying further opportunities. Additional commitments to boost MDG achievement were announced, bringing the total to more than $2.5 billion. Further events include:

The President of the General Assembly plans to hold six events – three thematic debates and three high-level events -- on the post-2015 development agenda from February through June 2014.

The High-level Political Forum will meet at the ministerial level as part of the high-level segment of the Economic and Social Council in July 2014.

The Open Working Group on the Sustainable Development Goals progress report in July highlighted education as “absolutely central to any sustainable development agenda”. Following further consultations, its work will conclude in February 2014. The Group will then consider specific goals and work on negotiating a text for its Report to be presented to Member States in September 2014.

The report by the Intergovernmental Committee of Experts on Sustainable Development Financing is expected to be presented in September 2014.

The Secretary-General‟s Synthesis Report will be presented to Member States to set the stage for negotiations leading up to the Summit in September 2015.

In addition to these activities, some bilateral agencies have developed or considering positions on the post-2015 agenda, including Switzerland, France, DfID, USAID, and BMZ (Germany). The Basic Education Coalition USA (18 global development organisations), Education International, the Global Campaign for Education, the Consultative Group on Early Childhood Care and Development, the Global Partnership for Education, Save the Children, and the Learning Metrics Task Force13 of the Brookings Institution have all

13 LMTF. 2013. Toward Universal Learning: A Global Framework for Measuring Learning. Report No. 2 of

the Learning Metrics Task Force. Montreal and Washington: UNESCO Institute of Statistics and the Center

for Universal Education at the Brookings institution.

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analysed research, proposed frameworks, adopted principles, and/or advocated for specific goals related to the post-2015 agenda. Formal interest in similar discourse has so far been limited at the national level although China, Bangladesh (via local NGOs), and South Africa have developed relevant positions. As a result of this complex discourse, some specific proposals have been made in regard to what will likely be one stand-alone goal related to education in the future post-2015 agenda such as:

The UNESCO-UNICEF Thematic Consultation – equitable, quality education and lifelong learning for all

High-Level Panel of Eminent Persons – provide quality education and lifelong learning

UN Secretary General – provide education and lifelong learning

SDSN – ensure effective learning for all children and youth for life and livelihood

France – quality lifelong learning for all

Save the Children – by 2030 ensure all children receive a good quality education and have good learning outcomes

IV. ASEAN integration and its implications for the development of education in

Southeast Asia

The integration of ASEAN14 nations into an ASEAN Community was originally planned for 2020, but the ASEAN Summit of 2007 advanced this date to 2015. This process is being guided by three blueprints: for an ASEAN Socio-Cultural Community, an ASEAN Economic Community, and an ASEAN Political-Security Community. All of the blueprints are based on ASEAN‟s underlying principles of human rights, equity, and sustainable development, and all deal to varying degrees with the role of education in achieving these three principles in the process of integration. The Socio-Cultural Community Blueprint15 is most explicit in this regard. Its desired “characteristics and elements” include:

being people-centred and socially responsible

ensuring solidarity and unity

forging a common identify

building an inclusive and harmonious caring and sharing society in order to enhance the well-being, livelihood, and welfare of its people

being environmentally friendly and promoting sustainable development

building a strong foundation of greater understanding and good neighbourliness

adhering to agreed principles

promoting human and social development

14 Although the discussion around ASEAN integration necessarily excludes Timor Leste, for the purposes of this

paper, it will apply to all SEAMEO member countries. 15 The following is taken from ASEAN Socio-Cultural Community Blueprint. 2008. Jakarta: ASEAN Secretariat.

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respecting fundamental freedoms, protecting human rights, and promoting social justice

respecting different cultures, languages, and religions

narrowing the development gap.

In order to help achieve the elements, ASEAN foresees utilising several strategies. The first, “human development”, is most strongly linked to education. Thus, “ASEAN will enhance the well-being and livelihood of the people of ASEAN by providing them with equitable access to human development opportunities by promoting an investing in education and lifelong learning, human resource training and capacity building, encourage innovation and entrepreneurship, promote the use of English language, ICT and applied science and technology in socio-economic activities (sic).”16 The strategic objective of “advancing and prioritising education” is “ensuring a knowledge-based society; achieving universal access to primary education; promoting early child care and development; and enhancing awareness of ASEAN to youths through education and activities to build an ASEAN identity based on friendship and cooperation.”17 Actions to achieve this objective – and therefore actions which should be driving the future education agenda of Southeast Asia and SEAMEO – include:

achieve universal access to primary education through equal opportunity regardless of gender, social class, geography, ethnicity, background, or physical disabilities

improve the quality and adaptability of education, including technical/vocational/skills training education

establish national skills frameworks towards an ASEAN skills recognition framework

increase ICT literacy and use ICT, from primary school, to promote education and life-long learning

promote university networking, student and staff exchanges, and research clusters

promote equal access to education for women and girls

include the teaching of common values and cultural heritage

develop and offer courses on ASEAN studies

support learning of ASEAN languages

support proficiency for ASEAN citizens in English

promote early child care and development

apply science and technology for sustainable development

Other major strategies in the Socio-Cultural Community blueprint also have implications for education. Thus:

under “social welfare and protection”, the Blueprint promotes education for a healthy lifestyle and behaviour change, for reproductive and sexual health

16 Ibid. p. 2 17 Ibid.

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education, for the prevention of drug use and abuse, and to develop disaster-resilient communities

under “social justice and rights”, the Blueprint promotes the implementation of programmes on child survival, development, and protection

under “ensuring environmental sustainability”, the Blueprint promotes environmental education consistent with the ASEAN Environmental Education Acton Plan of 2008 including the insertion of environmental education and education for sustainable development in curricula and materials that are locally relevant, in teacher education, and in quality assurance systems; and the promotion of sustainable schools;

under “building ASEAN identity”, the Blueprint supports school activities which promote ASEAN awareness.

The two other Community blueprints also make reference to the role of education in helping achieve their goals. The Political-Security Community Blueprint18 hopes to ensure “that the peoples and Member States live in peace with one another and with the world at large in a just, democratic, and harmonious government” and “to promote political development in adherence to the principles of democracy, the rule of law and good governance, respect for and promotion and protection of human rights and fundamental freedoms” in which “all sectors of society, regardless of gender, race, religion, language, or social and cultural background are encouraged to participate in, and benefit from, the process of ASEAN integration and community building” and to promote “gender-mainstreaming, tolerance, respect for diversity, equality, and mutual understanding”. To achieve this, the Blueprint urges:

all ASEAN sectoral bodies (presumably including education) to promote the understanding and appreciation of political systems, culture, and history of ASEAN nations

promote understanding of the principles of democracy among ASEAN youth at schools at an appropriate stage of education

The Economic Community Blueprint19, designed to deepen and broaden economic integration accordance to the principles of an open, outward-looking, inclusive, and market-driven economy, discusses yet additional roles for education including:

the development of core competencies and the mutual recognition of the qualifications of professionals and skilled labour engaged in trade in goods, services, and investment to facilitate movement across the region

enhance cooperation among ASEAN University Network members to increase mobility for both staff and students

Underlying all of these strategies is ASEAN‟s more general commitment to education reform: to guarantee equitable opportunities for all to participate in quality learning at all levels aiming to provide the knowledge, skills, competencies and values vital to achieve inclusive and sustainable development.

18 The following is taken from ASEAN Political-Security Community Blueprint. 2009. Jakarta: ASEAN

Secretariat. 19 The following is taken from ASEAN Economic Community Blueprint. 2009. Jakarta: ASEAN Secretariat.

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But in this range of roles desired of education systems – and human resource development more generally – there appear to be two important gaps that will need to be considered more systematically in the post-2015 global and ASEAN agenda. These include:

early childhood care and development (ECCD). Although this is mentioned briefly in the Community blueprints, there should be much greater focus on both the essential health and nutrition care of pregnant women and young children aged 0-3 (which even Ministries of Education can influence through effective adolescent and parenting education) and on the expansion and improvement of ECCD services, including daycare centres for younger children and pre-schools/kindergartens.

cultural heritage and diversity. Although there is some discussion of the need to recognise the cultural, religious, and ethnic diversity of the region‟s population (whether majority or minority cultures, indigenous or migrant populations), the role of education in preserving, developing, and reinforcing this diversity is neglected; e.g. the use of mother tongue in promoting initial literacy is completely ignored. Interfaith dialogue is promoted but not interethnic dialogue, and while there is concern for “promoting sustainable management of natural resources and biodiversity”20 and reducing the current rate of loss of biodiversity, there is no similar concern for cultural/linguistic diversity or reducing the current rate of language death. The role of the media in promoting an ASEAN identify and promoting tolerance for the region‟s diverse cultures, religious, and ethnicity is highlighted – but not the role of the school.

V. The “drivers” for the future development of education in Southeast Asia

From the above discussion of the past achievements and future challenges related to education in Southeast Asia – particularly linked to the development of global development goals and ASEAN integration, one can identify a number of important driving forces which will necessarily influence the future development of education in the region. These include the following:

A. Population growth and urbanization

A major driver influencing education around the world is the nature of population growth and urbanisation. “Based on historical growth rates and national calculations, it is estimated that between 2000 and 2050 the national populations are expected to grow in every country of East, Southeast, and South and Central Asia except for Japan and Kazakhstan. Populations will double or nearly double in Cambodia, and Laos. Growth rates will also be particularly high in Indonesia, Malaysia, Myanmar, the Philippines, and Vietnam. Much of the population growth projected for the next few decades will occur in countries that are least capable of coping with additional stress on land, water, and other natural resources. According to recent studies, countries where population is projected to grow fastest have some of the lowest income levels in the world. These countries already rank high in terms of environmental stress”21. As is true elsewhere in the world, the region is also urbanising as more and more people move permanently (or seasonally) to cities. “Within the member states of the Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN), it is expected that by 2020, two-thirds of the entire ASEAN urban population will reside in only five Mega-Urban-Regions (MUR): the Bangkok-centered MUR (30 million); the Kuala Lumpur-Klang MUR (6 million); the Singapore Triangle (10 million); the Java MUR (100 million); and the Manila MUR (30 million).

20 ASEAN Socio-Cultural Community Blueprint. p. 18. 21 World Population Statistics. http://www.worldpopulationstatistics.com/asia-population-2013/

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Nevertheless, despite this concentration of populations in MURs, it is the second and higher tier cities of ASEAN that are urbanizing the fastest.”22 (Italics in the original)

B. Economic growth and the persistence of exclusion and disparities

Closely related to the influence of population growth is economic growth (or the lack of such growth) and how such growth is distributed within the population of a given country and region. “Real growth in Southeast Asia as well as the People‟s Republic of China and India should recover from the slowing during 2011-12 and achieve a robust pace over 2013-17, according to the results of the OECD Development Centre‟s Medium-Term Projection Framework for this Outlook (MPF-2013). Growth of the Southeast Asian region is projected to average 5.5% over 2013-17, the same rate recorded during the pre-crisis period (2000-07). The success of the Southeast Asian economies in sustaining robust growth in the near term attests to their resilience in the face of major external shocks. The projected growth for ASEAN countries highlights the fact that some are at an earlier stage of development, while others are at a stage where further rapid gains in productivity become more difficult to achieve. Indonesia is projected to lead the ASEAN 6 countries [Brunei Darussalam, Indonesia, the Philippines, Singapore, Malaysia and Thailand] with a growth rate of 6.4% over 2013-17...Projected growth in Singapore, Malaysia, the Philippines and Thailand compares favourably to growth for other developing countries at a comparable stage of development…Growth in the CLMV countries (Cambodia, Lao PDR, Myanmar and Viet Nam) is also projected to be quite rapid over the medium term, ranging from over 6% for Cambodia and Myanmar, and more than 7% in Lao PDR…Growth in Cambodia and Viet Nam is projected to be somewhat slower than before the global financial crisis…High inflation, due partly to the weak macroeconomic management framework, is a major downside risk for Viet Nam.”23 But this general growth masks various kinds of disparities. “GDP per capita – one measure of income disparity among countries – rose faster between 2005 and 2011 in the ASEAN 6 countries…than in CLMV. The result was a widening of the income gap between the two country groupings. Although Viet Nam‟s per capita GDP was just behind that of the poorest members of ASEAN 6 – the Philippines and Indonesia – Cambodia‟s was only USD 2 200 and Lao PDR‟s USD 2 800 in 2011. Myanmar lagged even further behind with an estimated GDP per capita of USD 1 300. However, even within the ASEAN 6 countries, there are wide disparities. At over USD 48 000, Singapore and Brunei record the highest GDP per capita, while the rest (Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines and Thailand) have less than half that level.”24 But “the region faces an issue of dual disparities – i.e. disparities both among and within countries. Examination of recent patterns in income inequalities within countries, as measured by the Gini coefficient, reveals different trends among ASEAN countries. Between 2005 and 2011, inequality eased in Cambodia and Viet Nam and grew in Lao PDR, even though it started from a very low level. Patterns of change in income inequality also vary in ASEAN 6 economies. Indonesia and Malaysia became more unequal, while the Philippines and Thailand managed to reduce inequality to a certain extent. Income inequality in Singapore seems to have been stationary at a relatively high level since 2005.25

22 Institute for Sustainable Communities. Urbanization, Infrastructure and Economic Growth In Southeast

Asia. http://www.iscvt.org/news/urbanization-infrastructure-and-economic-growth-in-asia/ 23 OECD. 2013. Southeast Asian Economic Outlook 2013: With Perspectives on China and India. OECD.

24 Ibid. p. 17. 25 Ibid. p. 18.

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Education is said to be one of the great “levelers” of social and economic inequality, by allowing even children of the poor to succeed on the basis of merit rather than wealth and advantage. But education often reinforces such inequality through allowing (or promoting) wide differences in the amount and quality of education provided to different parts of a country, different sexes, different ethnic groups, and economic classes, and children of “different” abilities.

C. Environmental deterioration and sustainability

Southeast Asia is not immune from the destruction of its natural environment and the likely impacts of climate change and rising sea levels. Several coastal cities in the region are threatened by future flooding, and the destruction of forests, clean sources of water, and the size and flow of its many rivers is characteristic of almost all of its nations. A little bit of environmental education will not help much, of course, when the destroyers are so much more powerful than those whose livelihoods and ways of life are destroyed in the process. But education systems can at least make the effort to promote sustainable development in what they teach and in efforts to make their own institutions “green” and eco-friendly.

D. Emergencies – conflicts and disasters

The increasing incidence of conflicts and natural disasters (typhoons, flooding, earthquakes, landslides) around the world – many being the consequence of the environmental deterioration described above -- is now generally understood, but less discussed is the impact of such emergency contexts on education, in some cases, setting back the progress of EFA by years through the destruction of schools, the interruption of the schooling process, and the death of teachers, administrators, and students. Even less discussed is what education systems must do to sustain themselves and be resilient in the face of – and to prevent, prepare for, mitigate the impact of, respond to, and recover from – such emergencies. Ensuring that education systems understand and implement their role in disaster risk management and reduction is of increasing importance, at both the system and school level.

E. Information and communication technologies

Access to ICTs is expanding exponentially, even in relatively poor communities where cellphones are found wherever there is adequate connectivity. But the digital divide remains real, with sophisticated laptops, videogames, and e-learning materials much more likely to be found in wealthier families (and schools) – and it is children from these families who will likely take greater advantage of the further inevitable expansion of information and communication technologies. Government programmes to provide every child (even in Grade 1) with laptops are politically popular, but results are mixed, and ministries of education will face difficult decisions in regard to how to better prepare their students for the increasingly complex and omnipresent ICTs of the future.

F. Governance

Despite some progress towards more democratic and more stable governments in Southeast Asia, many problems remain. Many governments are democratic in form, with regular (but sometimes not free nor fair) elections, but not in substance with opposition parties seldom having a chance to help shape legislative decisions or have their own opportunity for governing. In regard to education systems, some nations face frequent changes of ministers (and sometimes, subsequently, of senior ministry staff) and therefore of often inconsistent and unsustainable policies. In addition, some education systems have serious problems with corruption, at all levels – from massive procurement schemes, the

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leaking of examinations (for students and candidate teachers), the hiring and posting of teachers, and illegal fees and other “contributions” at the school level. Education systems can hardly make a claim to train “moral” students when the students themselves are surrounded by examples of dishonesty and corruption.

G. Social-cultural development

As ASEAN recognises, one driving force for education in the future is the realization that genuine integration must go beyond issues of economics and finance and move into the often more difficult issues of social and cultural identities and relationships. The challenges are many. Can those nations which have a history of war and conflict, even if papered over at the moment, set aside their biased and discriminatory attitudes towards their neighbours? Can any kind of common history of the region (who did what to whom, for what reasons) ever be written? Can education systems go beyond teaching their students to merely tolerate – bur rather celebrate -- diversity and difference (of language, ethnicity, religion) within and across nations? Can a Southeast Asian regional identity – a Southeast Asian “citizen” – ever really be realised in the context of so much diversity, of a history of conflict, and, especially now, of an increase of less tolerant and fundamentalist religious beliefs and, in some cases, stronger national or ethnic identities. And what role can a common regional language (of economics at least) play in making social-cultural integration more likely?

VI. Possible policy directions for future education development and the post-

EFA/SDG agenda in Southeast Asia The discourse around (and likely outcomes of) the post-2015 development agenda (in regard to both EFA and the SDGs) and the imperatives of imminent ASEAN integration will exacerbate existing – and create new – challenges for education systems in the region.

A. Continuing challenges that need renewed, more focused attention 1. Including the excluded in education

A critical issue now and for the future is the extent to which Ministries of Education take seriously those learners still excluded from school and from literacy programmes. This demands greater attention to net non-enrolment rates and the understanding that getting 95% or 98% of children enrolled in school does not achieve EFA. The 5% not in school (even if these data can be believed) represent many millions of children destined for a life of continuing exclusion and disadvantage. In other words, what reforms are Ministries willing to undertake toward more inclusive education (e.g., use of mother tongue for early literacy, expansion of ECCE programmes, innovations directed at the more remote population groups, the systematic inclusion of learners with disabilities in regular classrooms) and at what cost in order to get ever closer to genuinely universal basic education? And how can they guarantee a sharper focus on addressing exclusion by an increased commitment to equity through targeted plans, strategies and programmes clearly linked to budgets and strong EMIS capacity especially targeting marginalised groups. Despite progress in the region in terms of achieving high initial enrolment rates, many children still do not enroll in primary school, drop out before completion, or do not continue to higher levels of education – even lower secondary school let alone higher education. This is especially the case, of course, for children of the most disadvantaged populations groups: girls (but increasingly, boys) and children living in remote areas, in extreme poverty, of ethnic/linguistic minorities, with a disability, and affected by HIV and AIDS.

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The implications for current Ministry activities are numerous including the need for:

more and better ECCE programmes (0-8), especially those which are child-centred, play-based, and provided in mother tongue

the reduction and even elimination of school fees and other costs along with stipends and other special incentives for the very poor

the reduction of repetition rates. which often lead to higher drop-out rates, through such policies as automatic promotion accompanied by serious remedial support to those who are failing

special efforts directed at remote, rural populations and the urban poor through programmes such as satellite schools, multi-grade teaching, and non-formal approaches which are accredited by the government and recognised by the labour market

greater sensitivity to issues of gender discrimination and inequality – not only girls (e.g., the exclusion of pregnant girls and young mothers) but also, increasingly, boys

the greater integration of learners with disabilities into regular classrooms with specialised support before and during this process

2. Improving the quality of education

Countries are realising more and more the need to go beyond access to quality – a link made as early as the Jomtien EFA declaration but often ignored – and therefore require the reinforcement of the full range of factors which determine quality:

Develop a coherent, seamless educational framework for children aged (say) 3-8 which: covers the curriculum, teacher education, pedagogy (teaching-learning

practices), and the learning environment for children from ECCD centres through the early years of primary school

is based on a child-centred approach and, wherever possible, uses the students‟ mother tongue(s)

is developmentally appropriate for young children, following their natural stages of development (physical, socio-emotional, and cognitive)

has good teachers and assessment systems able to identify, respond to, and, where needed, remediate individual developmental and learning delays

Improve the primary school curriculum through actions such as:

simplify (decongest) the curriculum, based on clearly defined student learning outcomes, to remove content and perhaps even subjects from overloaded timetables

assign (say) 20% of the curriculum to “local content” appropriate to and supportive of local cultures, physical environments, and economic conditions.

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Promote a serious, comprehensive reform of how teachers teach and how learners learn in order to enhance teaching-learning practices and promote a genuinely child-centred approach to teaching and learning. This includes the whole process of teacher management and development, from recruitment through field- and school-based pre-service training; in-school induction, mentoring, and probation; continuing professional development including in-service training; regular performance appraisal; and, where appropriate, career progression. 26 Such a process includes:

development of a standard teacher competency framework able to be

used by teacher education institutions as the basis for their curricula and for the assessment of candidate teachers and by head teachers and supervisors in the mentoring, evaluation, and promotion (or not) practicing teachers

the systematic and comprehensive reform of pre-service training including:

o a greater focus on content knowledge and an understanding of the fundamentals of lesson planning, questioning and feedback, differentiated instruction, effective peer work and problem-based approaches – all essential components of a child-centred approach to teaching and learning

o the essential skills linked to teaching in large classes, multi-grade teaching, inclusive education, positive discipline, and teaching students whose mother tongue is not the language of instruction

o a much greater focus on making both pre-service (PRESET) and in-service (INSET) education and training more practical, localised, and field- and school-based

in support of such reforms, a strengthened quality assurance system

including a better system of head teacher and supervisor/inspector selection and training, a more effective school cluster system, and, in a decentralising system, stronger district level offices

a strengthened school cluster and/or school family system to ensure

that it promotes better classroom practice

3. Expanding secondary and tertiary education

The relative success of EFA has produced a much larger cohort of primary school graduates requiring – and even demanding – opportunities to continue to secondary education and beyond. Fulfilling this demand is easier where at least junior secondary education is considered an integral part of basic education and thus does not filter out applicants through an entrance examination or, more informally, through higher fees (though other obstacles, such as the greater distance to a new school and other expenses, may make continuation difficult). Where the demand for junior and/or secondary education remains unfulfilled, ministries face difficult challenges:

26 Chang, M., Shaeffer, Sheldon, et al. 2013. Teacher Reform in Indonesia: The Role of Politics and Evidence

in Policy Making. World Bank: Jakarta.

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how to expand absolutely the number of secondary school places while maintaining some minimum standards of quality across all of them

how to ensure equitable opportunities for secondary education for the most excluded population groups (e.g., “open” secondary schools as are found in Indonesia; secondary schools designed for remote, rural areas; boarding schools, if properly managed and not destructive of the students‟ cultures and languages)

how to ensure secondary education provides the full range of skills and knowledge needed for a globailising (and regionalizing) world

how to decide if and when secondary education should be divided into academic and technical/vocational streams

The difficulties only multiply for higher education, with a whole range of outstanding challenges:

expanded access to higher education, especially for the normally disadvantaged

governance of higher education and the extent of university autonomy

the rapid expansion of private higher education

the development of quality assurance and accreditation mechanisms and processes

links between what universities teach and what the labour market needs

4. Linking education more closely to the world of work

Important transitions in education – from the home or pre-school to primary school, from primary to secondary school, and, in general, from school to work – are often not given the attention they deserve. The transition from home or even preschool can be difficult enough. But because in most countries of the world, EFA has “worked”, there are more and more children leaving primary schools which have become more affordable and more accessible. But these children find it increasingly difficult to make the transition to what are inevitably more expensive and often more distant and less welcoming secondary schools. Figuring out how to provide secondary-level education to groups usually excluded from such education will become an ever large challenge for ministries. Assuming this is done, the final and often more difficult transition is to the world of work. As more students complete some level of secondary education, they (and their families) will expect this to lead to “a good job”. And in many countries of the world, especially in those labelled as “failed states”, up to 40% of the population are under the age of 15. Especially in a decade of economic crisis, economies simply cannot keep up with the demand for work which such statistics imply. This is not a problem which Ministries of Education alone can solve, but they will have to be able to reform their systems in a fundamental way in order to contribute to its solution. Thus, given the larger number of children entering secondary education with subsequently higher aspirations in regard to future work, education systems are more and more concerned about the expansion and nature of skills development in general and technical and vocational education specifically. The particular educational and economic context and needs of a country must be taken more carefully into account in the development of skills development programmes. This includes, for example, whether TVET is provided in specialised schools or is integrated into general education, what kinds of skills are taught (from basic survival skills to post-industrial skills for knowledge-intensive services), and the

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extent to which governments try to ensure some kind of skills development programmes for its most excluded populations. The articulation between what industries and businesses (both large and small) need and what training providers deliver produce is weak. Systematic workplace training is almost completely absent in developing countries and is one of the biggest differences between education and training in developed and developing countries. More effort is going towards establishing standard competencies and national qualification frameworks in TVET, and some regions are developing regional frameworks and therefore encouraging labour mobility across the region. Given the burgeoning youth populations in many countries of the world – and the frequently narrowing and down-sizing of labour markets -- ever more systematic but also innovative approaches to skills development will be needed by 2015 and beyond. This will become even more important in the context of ASEAN integration which will not only promote migration of students and labour (both skilled and unskilled) but also require the development of complicated common competency frameworks and standards, credit transfer systems, and the mutual recognition of certificates, diplomas, and degree.

B. Emerging/new trends in education

Demographic changes and lifelong learning.27 The age profile of the region is changing rapidly with serious implications not only for continuing support to an ever larger elderly population by an ever smaller younger generation but also for ensuring some kind of lifelong learning for the ageing population cohort. The Median Age of a population increases as it ages. The Median Age for the world‟s population is projected to increase by 10 years – from 26 to 36 years – during 2000-2050. The increase will be greater in LDCs reflecting their more rapid population ageing. In East Asia and South-East Asia, the Median Age is projected to increase by more than the average for LDCs. All countries of East and Southeast Asia will need to address the issue of population ageing; in some the proportion of older persons in population is already high while others are faced with high rates of increase in the older population. In four countries (Japan, Republic of Korea, Singapore and China) older persons will constitute 30 per cent or more of the population by 2050; in all other Southeast Asian countries older persons will constitute more than 10 per cent of the population. Countries with the lowest proportions of older persons in their population (Cambodia, Mongolia, Philippines and Timor-Leste) are projected to have the highest rates of increase in older population during 2000-2050. Countries with a low percentage of older persons should therefore not be complacent towards the issue of population ageing. Also, in every country the proportion of females in the older and oldest populations has been and will continue to be higher than for men. A higher proportion of older females than males are "single", illiteracy rates are higher among older females, and a lower proportion of them are gainfully employed. Population ageing in all countries is therefore more a female phenomenon and older women face more vulnerabilities.

27 Muhajid, Ghazy. 2006. Population Ageing in East and South-East Asia: Current Situation and Emerging

Challenges. UNFPA Country Technical Services Team for East and South-East Asia: Bangkok.

www.eldis.org/vfile/upload/1/document/0708/DOC22434.pdf

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Specifically, the percentage of older persons in the population, for 2000, 2025, 2050, has been/will be as follows: Singapore:10.6 - 30.0 - 35.0 Thailand: 8.1 - 17.1 - 27.1 Indonesia: 7.6 - 12.8 - 22.3 Viet Nam: 7.5 - 12.6 - 23.5 Myanmar: 6.8 - 12.1 - 21.6 Malaysia: 6.6 - 13.4 - 20.8 Lao PDR: 5.6 - 7.0 - 13.3 Philippines: 5.5 - 10.4 - 19.5 Timor-Leste: 4.7 - 8.8 - 18.0 Cambodia: 4.4 - 6.7 - 11.7 With such high rates in many countries of the region, education systems will be challenged to provide their ageing populations with the kind of lifelong learning opportunities they – and their nation‟s development – will require. Successful early learning. One clear lesson of the post-Jomtien decades has been the fact that inclusion in the classroom does not necessarily mean inclusion in learning. It is increasingly obvious, in other words, that many children are leaving primary school without the basic literacy and numeracy skills – let alone essential general knowledge and social-emotional maturity – needed for success either in further learning or in the world of work. Evidence from early grade assessments (not only at the end of primary schools) and international comparative studies such as TIMSS and PISA and from national assessments is revealing truly shocking data about the extent to which children are not learning in school. It is more and more understood that much of this failure to learn begins in the early years of school, with large classes, overly academic curricula, poor teachers, and a language many children cannot understand -- and even before, back to pre-school (if any exists), to the environment of the home and family, and to the health and nutrition of the expectant mother. It is very difficult to make up for these negative circumstances in the later years of primary school. Ever greater effort – i.e., a much stronger commitment to the issues around quality described above -- is therefore needed to ensure that children are ready to learn when they enter school and that schools are ready to respond to the wide variety of individual needs and backgrounds that their students bring with them. “21st century skills”. The beginning of the new millennium ushered in considerable discourse and debate around the skills needed for (at least) the 21st century. One important initiative in this regard was the Decade for Education for Sustainable Development, with a focus on a range of issues related to the environment, socio-cultural, and economic sustainability. Increasingly clear scientific evidence and the increasing frequency of natural disasters skewed the focus of the Decade in some ways toward education in the skills and knowledge related to climate change and disaster risk reduction, but other kinds of education and the skills and values they are expected to promote have also been proposed, including:

moral education -- character education, values education, democracy education, etc.

international and intercultural education – global education, global citizenship education, education for international understanding,

skills related to critical thinking, teamwork, problem-solving, etc.

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entrepreneurship education

literacy skills related to the media, information and communication technology, and financial literacy

education for conflict sensitisation and resolution, peacebuilding, social cohesion, and respect for and the celebration of difference and diversity

The implications of this plethora of proposed 21st century skills for education systems are profound, especially in the context of ASEAN integration. How can more and more of a school‟s timetable be devoted to such issues when, as we have seen before, many children are not even gaining basic literacy and numeracy? More specifically, are their enough commonalities and common understandings among Southeast Asian nations which would lend themselves to both the definition of what a Southeast Asian “regional citizen” should “look like” – e.g., honest and incorruptible, global in outlook, devoted to peace and conflict resolution, literate in the many kinds of literacy needed for this century, gender sensitive, and respectful of all religions, nationalities, races and ethnicities – and eventually, perhaps, to common textbooks around these issues. Given the very different histories of nations (and of the relationships between nations) now taught in schools across the region – if they are taught at all – this will not be an easy task.

Cultural diversity. Linked to this issue, and of increasing importance today, is the need to preserve and even reinforce the rich cultural and linguistic diversity of the world. Southeast Asia is home to some 1500 languages, but if the rate of global language death estimated by some linguists (perhaps ½ of existing languages disappearing by the end of the century) holds true for the region, its cultural and linguistic diversity in the 22nd century will be much poorer. But languages will only continue to exist – and even thrive – if they are used, and especially if they are used in the education system. Even more important to the final outcomes of education systems is the fact that the use of mother tongue for initial literacy leads to even greater mastery of the national language and eventually to an international language such as English – and the last will be essential for successful ASEAN integration. Education systems must therefore map out language patterns in their countries – who speaks what and when – and, especially in more monolingual areas, promote the use of mother tongues for initial literacy by providing the necessary materials and training the necessary teachers to teach through mother tongue and then use it to ensure mastery of the national language and one or more international languages.

C. Examples of current efforts of SEAMEO and other organisations in relation to the remaining challenges and emerging trends

SEAMEO. Considering the priority areas outlined in the SEAMEO Strategic Plan 2011-2020 in regard to education, science and culture, the following represent activities by SEAMEO and its centres which can contribute to meeting the challenges outlined above.

Credit transfer system and student mobility (SEAMEO RIHED, AUN)

10 multi-country projects on “Reaching the Unreached” (SEAMEO Member Countries, coordinated by SEAMEO Secretariat)

Heritage preservation and cultural management (SEAMEO SPAFA)

Others (Please see separate matrix of programmes, projects and activities of the SEAMEO Centres that are supportive of the MDGs and the EFA(EFA) Goals.

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Other organisations. The activities of other organisations – both global and regional – will also need to be taken into account in this process. This includes:

Learning metrics (UNICEF – Southeast Asia, Brookings Institute – global)

Education in emergencies (INEE)

Skills development and TVET (UNESCO)

Science and technology (IPST) VII. Conclusion The changes coming to – or being forced upon – the nations of Southeast Asia in 2015 are significant ones: one derived from international obligations to be made by virtually every nation in the world, one driven by the imperatives brought about by a regional decision which will likely have far-reaching consequences for all sectors of their societies and all aspects of the daily lives of their citizens. Both will have equally far-reaching consequences for their education systems. Beginning the analysis of these consequences now – through both research and dialogue – and proactively beginning to respond to them can help ensure that the next set of International Development Goals and EFA targets and the impact of ASEAN integration will help rather than hinder the future development of the region and the wellbeing of its people.