Possible scenarios for the Trump Presidency

By David SilverbergPresident

Silverberg Independent Media

© 2017 David Silverberg

About these scenariosWhat follows is an attempt to rationally think through scenarios that might result from the presidency of Donald J. Trump. It has been done in as objective, non-partisan and analytic a manner as possible. It attempts to cover a range of possibilities based on current events and historical precedent.

Assessment of probabilities is subjective and the author’s own analysis.

This presentation was first developed for a non-partisan seminar looking ahead at the congressional elections of 2018 and the issues that candidates

might face.

Scenario 1: Trump Succeeds

Fills full term in office, fully enacts program

Likelihood: Low

• No change in behavior or governing– Instability– Infighting– Unpredictability

• Maintains continuous campaign• Beats media into submission

– Discredits independent media and critical reporting

• Expands base of hardcore supporters

Wins second term

Scenario 1: Trump Succeeds

Domestic

• Mass deportation of migrants• Immigration discouraged/closed• Speculative financial boom• Across-the-board deregulation• Higher consumer prices, fewer goods• Trade protectionism• Fossil-based energy sources• Continued climate change• Increase in low-wage manufacturing jobs in mid-country• Affordable Care Act abolished

Consequences:

Scenario 1: Trump Succeeds

International

• Border wall built• US and Russia divide world into spheres of

influence• NATO dissolved• US international isolation except for Russian

alliance• Trade protectionism

Consequences:

Scenario 2: Trump blockedServes out term, program

hindered

Likelihood: Medium

• No change in behavior or governing

• Congress, judiciary, media, public provide checks and balances

• Parts of program enacted, many initiatives blocked

• Base of support remains static or declines

Second term uncertain, possible 2018 loss in Congress

Scenario 2: Trump blockedConsequences

– Divided government– Political gridlock– Little legislation, governance through Executive

Orders– No ACA replacement– Nearly all presidential initiatives challenged in court– International uncertainty– Constant domestic dissent

Scenario 3: Removed from office

Likelihood: Medium

• Impeachment– Possible causes:

» Emoluments Clause» High crimes and

misdemeanors

• Invocation of 25th Amendment to Constitution

– VP and majority of Cabinet declare him unable to fulfill duties, ratified by Congress

• Physical inability to perform duties

Scenario 4:Trump removes himself

Likelihood: Low

• Resignation– Trump concludes he cannot

continue in office• Exile or defection

– Trump chooses to leave the United States

• Suicide– Cornered and/or defeated, Trump

concludes he cannot continue living

» Precedents: Nero; Hitler; John Milton, governor of Florida 1861-1865, committed suicide on learning of the fall of Richmond, Va.

WildcardsTerrorist attack

• Likelihood: High– Terrorist attack prompts national

crackdown, suspension of civil liberties

– Small, localized incident is exaggerated into national threat

– President declares national emergency and assumes emergency powers

Precedent: Reichstag fire, 1933

Wildcards

War

Likelihood: High

– War breaks out with foreign power

– President attempts to rally support

– Nation mobilizes– President attempts suppression

of popular dissent– Wartime censorship of press

Wildcards

Financial Crash / Panic

• Likelihood: High

– Speculative bubble bursts– Credit locks up– Government does not act– No confidence in presidential

leadership

Consequence: Major depression

WildcardsMilitary coup, uprising

• Likelihood: Low

– US military takes over government• Possible catalysts:

– Refusal to use deadly force against civilians

– Refusal of presidential orders to start war or use nuclear weapons

– Refusal of presidential orders to commit crimes against humanity

– Wholesale firing of Joint Chiefs or top military officers

WildcardsDictatorship

• Likelihood: Medium

– Civil liberties suspended– Congress dismissed– Rule by decree– Press freedom

suppressed, censorship imposed

– Constitution, Bill of Rights suspended

Parting Thoughts“…the Government of the United States, which gives to bigotry no sanction, to persecution no assistance, requires only that they who live under its protection should demean themselves as good

citizens in giving it on all occasions their effectual support.”--George Washington

“Those who surrender freedom for security will not have, nor do they deserve, either one.”

-- Benjamin Franklin

“A Prince, whose character is thus marked by every act which may define a Tyrant, is unfit to be the ruler of a free people.”

-- Declaration of Independence