possibility of synchronizing multiple data for monitoring one goal monitoring one goal by amara...

Possibility of Synchronizing Possibility of Synchronizing

Multiple Data forMultiple Data for

Monitoring One GoalMonitoring One Goal

By Amara SatharasingeDeputy DirectorDepartment of Census and StatisticsSri Lanka

Sri Lanka is

demarcated into

an administrative

hierarchy of 9

provinces, 25

districts, 325

Divisional

Secretariat (DS)

divisions and

14,009 Grama

Niladhari (GN)

divisions.

Sri Lanka is potentially on tract on most of the available

MDG indicators. Among the key achievements are

access to safe drinking water, equitable primary

education, literacy, child and maternal health. A

significant achievement is that there is no gender

disparity in these achievements.

However, there remain considerable challenges. The

critical challenge is that 23% of Sri Lanka’s

population is still living below the national poverty line.

Table 1: Status of Sri Lanka according to some selected MDG indicators

Value

Indicator No.

Indicator Last decade

This decad

e

Forecast for 2015

Target by

2015

Progress towards target

G1T1I1a Poverty Headcount Ratio (Percentage) 26.1

(1990/91)

22.7 (2002)

19.0 13.1 Off track

G1T1I2 Poverty gap ratio (Percentage) 5.6

(1990/91)

5.1 (2002)

4.56 2.80 Off track

G1T1I3 Share of poorest quintile in national consumption (Percentage)

8.9 (1990/91

)

7.0 (2002)

4.95 - -

G1T2I4 Prevalence of underweight children under five years of age (Percentage)

37.7 (1993)

29.4 (2000)

11.62 18.9 On track

G1T2I5 Proportion of the population below minimum level of dietary energy consumption (Percentage)

50.9 (1990/91

)

51.3 (2002)

51.7 25.5 On track

Net enrolment ratio in primary education: 6 – 10 years (Ratio)

95.7 (1996)

96.3 (2002)

-

100 On track

G2T3I6 Net enrolment ratio in primary education: 11 – 14 years (Ratio)

93.8 (1996)

96.3 (2002)

- 100 On track

G2T3I7 Proportion of pupils starting grade 1 who reach grade 5 (Percentage)

68.1 (1990)

95.6 (2002)

- 100 On track

G2T3I8 Literacy rate of 15-24 year-olds (Percentage) - 95.6

(2001) - 100 On track

G3T4I9 Ratio of girls to boys in primary, secondary and tertiary education: Primary (6 -10 yrs.) (Percentage)

94.2 (1996)

94.6 (2002)

- 100 On track

Ratio of girls to boys in primary, secondary and tertiary education: Junior secondary (11 – 14 yrs.) (Percentage)

91.2 (1996)

94.8 (2002)

- 100 On track

Ratio of girls to boys in primary, secondary and tertiary education: Senior secondary (15 - 19 yrs.) (Percentage)

107.7 (1996)

101.8 (2002)

- 100 On track

Ratio of girls to boys in primary, secondary and tertiary education: Tertiary (20 - 24 yrs.) (Percentage)

75.4 (1996)

113.8 (2002)

- 100 Exceeded target

G3T4I10 Ratio of literate women to men, 15-24 years old (Percentage)

- 100.9 (2001)

- 100 Achieved

G3T4I11 Share of women in wage employment in the non-agricultural sector (Percentage)

- 32.8

(2001) - 50 Off track

G4T5I13 Under-five mortality rate (Percentage - Expressed as a rate per 1,000 live births)

22.2 (1991)

13.5 (2002)

3.2 8.10 On track

G4T5I14 Infant mortality rate (Percentage - Expressed as a rate per 1,000 live births)

17.7 (1991)

11.2 (2002)

3.5 5.9 On track

G4T5I15 Proportion of 1 year-old children immunized against measles (Percentage)

95.5 (1993)

94.2 (2000)

91.4 98.5 On track,

Already high level

G5T6I16 Maternal mortality ratio (Ratio - Deaths per 100,000 live births)

42.3 (1991)

27.5 (2002)

10.0 10.6 On track

G5T6I17 Proportion of births attended by skilled health personnel (Percentage)

94.1 (1993)

96.0 (2000)

100.0 98.5 On track


Value

Indicator No.


This decad

e

Forecast for 2015

Target by

2015



(1990/91)

22.7 (2002)

19.0 13.1 Off track


(1990/91)

5.1 (2002)

4.56 2.80 Off track


8.9 (1990/91

)

7.0 (2002)

4.95 - -


37.7 (1993)

29.4 (2000)

11.62 18.9 On track


50.9 (1990/91

)

51.3 (2002)

51.7 25.5 On track


95.7 (1996)

96.3 (2002)

-

100 On track


93.8 (1996)

96.3 (2002)

- 100 On track


68.1 (1990)

95.6 (2002)

- 100 On track


(2001) - 100 On track


94.2 (1996)

94.6 (2002)

- 100 On track

G6T7I19 Condom use rate of the contraceptive prevalence rate (Percentage)

5.0 (1993)

5.3 (2000)

- - -

G6T7I19c Contraceptive prevalence rate (Percentage) 66.1

(1993) 70.0

(2000) - - -

G7T9I29 Proportion of the population using solid fuels (Percentage)

- 80.3

(2001) - - Off track

G7T10I30

Proportion of population with sustainable access to an improved water source, urban and rural (Percentage)

- 82.0

(2001) - - On track

G7T10I31

Proportion of population with access to improved sanitation, urban and rural (Percentage)

- 67.5

(2001) - - Possibly off track

G7T11I32

Proportion of households with access to secure tenure (Percentage)

- 98.1

(2001) - - On track

G8T16I45

Unemployment rate of young people aged 15 - 24 years, each sex and total (Percentage)

31.6 (1996)

27.9 (2002)

- - -

G8T18I48

Personal computers in use per 100 population (Percentage)

- 3.8

(2004) - -

Achievement very challenging

G8T18I48b

Internet users per 100 population (Percentage) - 2.8

(2004) - -

Achievement very challenging


Value

Indicator No.


This decad

e

Forecast for 2015

Target by

2015



(1990/91)

22.7 (2002)

19.0 13.1 Off track


(1990/91)

5.1 (2002)

4.56 2.80 Off track


8.9 (1990/91

)

7.0 (2002)

4.95 - -


37.7 (1993)

29.4 (2000)

11.62 18.9 On track


50.9 (1990/91

)

51.3 (2002)

51.7 25.5 On track


95.7 (1996)

96.3 (2002)

-

100 On track


93.8 (1996)

96.3 (2002)

- 100 On track


68.1 (1990)

95.6 (2002)

- 100 On track


(2001) - 100 On track


94.2 (1996)

94.6 (2002)

- 100 On track

Available from regular stat. activities of DCS (15) New survey for MDG indicators (12)

Expected from the Data Producers’ Working Group (13)

Not possible to prepare (03)

Not applicable (09)

Status of indicators at a glance

Regular SurveysRegular Surveys

Household Income & Expenditure Survey (HIES) Labour Force Survey (LFS) Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) Computer Literacy Survey (CLS) New SurveyNew Survey

Survey to capture selected MDG indicators (MDGIS)

Administrative RecordsAdministrative Records

Civil Registration System (CRS)

DCS sources related to MDG indicatorsDCS sources related to MDG indicators

Indicators compiled by data collected from regular surveys No. Indicator Source

48 Personal computers in use per 100 population and Internet users per 100 population (ITU) CLS 13 Under-five mortality rate CRS 14 Infant mortality rate CRS 16 Maternal mortality ratio CRS 4 Prevalence of underweight children under five years of age DHS 15 Proportion of 1 year-old children immunized against measles DHS 17 Proportion of births attended by skilled health personnel DHS 19 Condom use rate of the contraceptive prevalence rate DHS 19c Contraceptive prevalence rate DHS 1 Poverty headcount ratio HIES 2 Poverty gap ratio HIES 3 Share of poorest quintile in national consumption HIES 5 Proportion of population below minimum level of dietary energy consumption HIES 11 Share of women in wage employment in the non - agricultural sector LFS 45 Unemployment rate of young people aged 15-24 years , each sex and total LFS

DHS: Demographic and Health Survey, HIES: Household and Income Survey, LFS: Labour Force Survey

Data Gaps and Remedial Action

• Data from outside sourcesData from outside sources

• Data not availableData not available

• Data available with limitations Data available with limitations

Indicators compiled by data collected from special MDG surveys

No. Indicator Source

6 Net enrolment ratio in primary education MDGIS 7 Proportion of pupils starting grade 1 who reach grade 5 MDGIS 8 Literacy rate of 15 - 24 year-olds MDGIS 9 Ratio of girls to boys in primary, secondary and tertiary education MDGIS

10 Ratio of literate women to men, 15-24 years old MDGIS 21 Prevalence & death rates associated with malaria MDGIS 22 Proportion of population in malaria-risk areas using effective malaria prevention and treatment

measures MDGIS

31 Proportion of population with access to improved sanitation MDGIS 32 Proportion of households with access to secure tenure MDGIS 47 Telephone lines and cellular subscribers per 100 population MDGIS

19b Percent of population aged 15-24 yrs. with comprehensive correct knowledge of HIV/AIDS MDGIS 29 Proportion of population using solid fuel MDGIS 30 Proportion of population with sustainable access to an improved water source, urban & rural MDGIS

MGIS: Special Surveys on MDG’s

Indicators compiled with the assistance of Data Producers’ Technical Working Group

No. Indicator Source 6 Net enrolment ratio in primary education DPTWG 7 Proportion of pupils starting grade 1 who reached grade 5 DPTWG

9.1 Primary completion rate DPTWG Ratio of girls to boys in primary and secondary education DPTWG

12 Proportion of seats held by women in provincial councils and local govt. authorities DPTWG 13 Under five mortality rate DPTWG 14 Infant mortality rate DPTWG 16 Maternal mortality ratio DPTWG

Prevalence and death rates associated with malaria DPTWG 23 Prevalence and death rates associated with tuberculosis DPTWG 24 Proportion of tuberculosis cases detected and cured under DOTS DPTWG 25 Proportion of land area covered by forest DPTWG 26 Ratio of area protected to maintain biological diversity to surface area DPTWG 27 Energy use per 1$ GDP DPTWG 28 Carbon dioxide emissions per capita and consumptions depleting CFCs DPTWG 39 Average tariffs imposed by developed countries on agricultural products, textiles and clothing from developing

countries DPTWG

41 Proportion of ODA provided to help build trade capacity DPTWG 44 Debt service as a percentage of exports of goods and services DPTWG 46 Proportion of population with access to affordable essential drugs on a sustainable basis DPTWG

DPTWG: Data Producers Technical Group

Data not available Three indicators had to be abandoned as it is not possible to collect

the required data from surveys or administrative records.

Indicator No. and Name

18. HIV prevalence among pregnant women aged 15-24 yrs.

19a. Condom use at last high-risk sex

20. Ratio of school attendance of orphans(due to HIV) to school attendance of non-orphans 10-14 yrs.

1. Maps at DS division level – 2002 (An application of Small Area Estimation Technique)

2. Maps at GN division level (compiled based on the analysis measurable characteristics reflecting poverty)

3. Reports based on the analysis of HIES data

Tools for monitoring poverty reduction programmes

a) Head count ratio (Goal 1)

b) Share of poorest quintile in national consumption (Goal 1)

c) Literacy rate of 15 – 24 year-olds (Goal 2)

d) Net enrolment ratio in primary education (Goal 2)

e) Share of women in wage employment in the non-agricultural sector

(Goal 3)

f) Ratio of girls to boys in education (Goal 3)

g) Infant mortality rate (Goal 4)

h) Under five mortality rate (Goal 4)

i) Maternal mortality (Goal 5)

j) Proportion of the population using solid fuels (Goal 7)

k) Proportion of households with sustainable access to safe drinking

water (Goal 7)

l) Proportion of population with access to improved sanitation (Goal 7)

Classification of districts by overall status of selected MDG indicators

An index reflecting the overall situation with respect to a set of selected MDG indicators at district level was computed

12 indicators representing all goals but goal 6 were selected for the analysis.

By applying Principal Component Analysis 12 indicators were reduced to an index retaining 80% of the total variation

Districts were classified into 5 groups based on the values of this index using Natural Break method

Districts shaded in red are the most backward in terms of achieving the MDGs

The most deprived districts (most unsatisfactory class) are Rathnapura, Polonnaruwa, Badulla and Anuradhapura

This map will be updated as data become available

Comments/suggestions on this methodology are welcome

A tool to facilitate monitoring progress in achieving MDG’sFindings of an exploratory study

DCS has carried out several activities to disseminate available MDG indicators for Sri Lanka and to bridge data gaps. Some activities are

Developing tools for monitoring impacts of poverty eradication projects

Preparation of two publications

Preparation of a database using DevInfo software

Preparation of the web version of the MDGInfo database, which will be launched shortly

Preparation of GN division boundary maps for data presentation

Conducting two surveys to bridge some data gaps

In 2005, DCS prepared a publication presenting available indicators for monitoring MDG goals.

Preparation of publications

MDGInfo Sri LankaMDGInfo Sri Lanka Millennium Development Goals in Sri Lanka – A Statistical ReviewMillennium Development Goals in Sri Lanka – A Statistical Review

In 2006, DCS prepared a publication presenting the trends and patterns of the available indicators and a user friendly database for monitoring MDG goals.


C:\DevInfo\DevInfo.exe /a C:\DevInfo\MDGInfo Sri Lanka 1.0\

Trends and patterns and whether the targets are likely to be achieved is briefly reviewed in the publication titled “ Millanium Development Goals in Sri Lanka – A Statistical Review”


A database titled “MDGINFO – Sri Lanka” was released in 2006.This was prepared using DevInfo software. User friendly tools for storing, retrieving and presenting retrieved data by tables, charts and maps are available in this database.

MDGInfo Sri LankaMDGInfo Sri Lanka

Preparation of databases

C:\DevInfo\DevInfo.exe /a C:\DevInfo\MDGInfo Sri Lanka 1.0\

Preperation of Preperation of

“MDGInfo” Online “MDGInfo” Online

Database for Database for

Monitoring Monitoring

Millennium Millennium

Development GoalsDevelopment Goals

Provision of information for local level planning poverty eradication projets

Classification of GN Divisions by Unsatisfied Basic Needs

Table 3: Correlation coefficients of Headcount Ratio and indicators selected for the study

Indicator Correlation

coefficient

I1: Percentage of Households not having improved sanitary facilities .461(**)

I2: Percentage of Households using kerosene for lighting .625(**)

I3: Percentage of Households using firewood for cooking .646(**)

I4: Percentage of Housing units without permanent materials for wall .557(**)

I5: Percentage of Housing units without permanent materials for floor .607(**)

I6: Percentage of Housing units without permanent materials for roof .401(**)

I7: Percentage of household heads who have not passed G.C.E. A/L or above .707(**)

I8: Percentage of household heads who are not paid employees .484(**)

I9: Percentage household members aged 20 and above, not passed G.C.E. A/L and

above examinations .530(**)

** Correlation is significant at the 0.01 level (2-tailed).

Correlations

1 -.627**

.000

248 248

-.627** 1

.000

248 271

Pearson Correlation

Sig. (2-tailed)

N

Pearson Correlation

Sig. (2-tailed)

N

headcount ratio

UBNI

headcountratio UBNI

Correlation is significant at the 0.01 level (2-tailed).**.

Factor extraction: communalities

Communalities

1.000 .553

1.000 .851

1.000 .822

1.000 .452

1.000 .940

1.000 .895

1.000 .776

1.000 .662

1.000 .867

wallper

floorper

roofper

toityper

edualper

gcealper

non_kero

non_firw

emp52pec

Initial Extraction

Extraction Method: Principal Component Analysis.

Extraction communalities are estimates of the variance in each variable accounted for by the factors (or components) in the factor solution.

Total Variance Explained

4.406 48.958 48.958

1.326 14.736 63.694

1.085 12.052 75.746

.712 7.906 83.652

.482 5.359 89.011

.422 4.692 93.703

.296 3.294 96.997

.192 2.129 99.126

.079 .874 100.000

Component1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

Total % of Variance Cumulative %

Initial Eigenvalues


Factor extraction: Total variance explained

The "Total" column gives the amount of variance in the observed variables accounted for by each component or factor.

Rotated Component Matrix a

.836 .320

.762 -.467

.759 .349

.703

.647

.953

.922

.326 .686

.880

floorper

roofper

non_kero

wallper

toityper

edualper

gcealper

non_firw

SMEAN(emp52pec)

1 2 3

Component


Rotation Method: Varimax with Kaiser Normalization.

Rotation converged in 4 iterations.a.

This table reports the factor loadings for each variable on the components or factors after rotation.Each number represents the partial correlation between the item and the rotated factor.These correlations can help you formulate an interpretation of the factors or components.

Unsatisfied Basic Needs Index

compute f1 = fac1_1*.65 + fac2_1*.19 + fac3_1*.16.

Natural breaksClasses are based on natural groupings of data values. ArcMap identifies break points by looking for groupings and patterns inherent in the data. The features are divided into classes whose boundaries are set where there are relatively big jumps in the data values.

Badulla district

Gampaha district

Galle district

possibility of synchronizing multiple data for monitoring one goal monitoring one goal by amara...

Documents

yearolds goal

available mdg indicators

mdg indicators data

primary education goal

maternal mortality goal

available data available

status of indicators

computed12 indicators