Positivism and Social Inquiry

PositivismAuguste Comte and modern epistemologyLogical positivism

Post-positivist philosophy of scienceKarl R. Popper – The Logic of Scientific DiscoveryThomas S. Kuhn – The Structure of Scientific Revolutions

Social inquiryKing, Keohane and Verba – Designing Social Inquiry

Rational choice theoryPhilosophical originsEconomicsPsychologyPolitical scienceInternational relations

Positivism

Enlightenment philosophyScience vs. metaphysicsEmpiricist epistemology

David Hume (1711-1776)Reason and knowledge (deductive and inductive reasoning)

Rationalist, analytic, a priori statements, true by definitionEmpirical, synthetic, a posteriori statements, true by experience

Differential epistemologyAuguste Comte (1798-1857)

Law of three phases (social progress)Theological → Metaphysical → Scientific (positive)

Envisaged “sociology” as last and greatest scienceScientific knowledge as a historical process

Differential theory of science (Comte)

No universal method or scientific monopolyNature of science depends on historical phase/stage,

and on subject matterIncreasing complexity and decreasing generalizability

Astronomy (geometry and mechanics)Physics (physical forces)Chemistry (chemical affinities)Biology (organization of living bodies)Sociology (human capacity to learn)

Historical development of sciencesStepwise acquisition of knowledge (from simple to complex subject

matters)

Logical positivismMoritz Schlick (Vienna circle)Bertrand RussellEarly Ludwig Wittgenstein (Tractatus Logico-Philosophicus)

Refuting the foundational nature of philosophy“Exact sciences” are paradigmatic, produce knowledge and

certaintyRevolutionary scientific advances make previous philosophies

untenable

MaterialismPhilosophical naturalismEmpiricismVerifiability principle

Scientific practice

Karl R. Popper (1902-1994)The Logic of Scientific Discovery (1934)

Metaphysical does not equal meaninglessUnfalsifiable (hence unscientific) approaches are neither wrong (they

cannot be as long as they remain unfalsifiable) nor do they have to permanently remain unfalsifiable and unscientific

What renders a statement, proposition, or theory scientific is its falsifiability

No theory can ever be verified!Science progresses by means of elimination (of

falsified theories)

History and ideology of science

Thomas S. Kuhn (1922-1996)The Structure of Scientific Revolutions (1962)

Normal science ‘tradition-bound activity’; shared commitment to a paradigm ‘predicated on the assumption that the scientific community knows what the

world is like’ Normal science is puzzle-solving, i.e. discovering what is known in advance Research: ‘a strenuous and devoted attempt to force nature into the conceptual

boxes provided by professional education’ ‘One of the things a scientific community acquires with a paradigm is a

criterion for choosing problems that, while the paradigm is taken for granted, can be assume to have solutions.’

Crisis Discrepancy between theory and fact Normal science ‘ridden by dogma’, paradigms entrenched Only obvious inability of current paradigm to account for observed anomalies

provides opportunity for scholarly criticism of existing theory

Scientific development

Thomas S. Kuhn (1922-1996)The Structure of Scientific Revolutions (1962)

‘The successive transition from one paradigm to another via revolution is the usual developmental pattern of mature science’

Scientific revolutionsKuhn rejects idea that scientific progress is gradual and cumulativeParadigmatic differences cannot be reconciled; are philosophically

incompatible ‘the normal scientific tradition that emerges from a scientific

revolution is not only incompatible but often actually incommensurable with that which has gone before’

Changes of world views (ideological nature of science?) Invisibility of paradigm shifts

Social inquiry

King, Keohane and Verba (1994)Designing Social Inquiry. Scientific Inference in Qualitative Research.

Characteristics of scientific research in social sciencesThe goal is inferenceThe procedures are publicThe conclusions are uncertainThe content is the method

Theory and dataData collection guided by observable implications of theoryReporting uncertainty

Criteria of good scienceValidityReliabilityReplicability

Rational choice theory

Positivist paradigm in political/social science?

Philosophy – conceptual originsEconomics – homo economicusPsychology – bounded rationalityPolitical Science – formal theory and pathologies of

applicationInternational Relations – game theory, realism and

deterrence

Philosophical origins – reason, rationality, utility

Enlightenment

Demystification of the worldOvercoming superstition, and unity of church and stateEmancipating individuals from resignation to god-given

fateProclaiming ‘free will’Educational function of scienceTransforming individuals into mature, rational beingsEnabling autonomous individuals

Thomas Hobbes (1588-1679)

Motivation and reason Actions driven by our appetites and aversions Will is ‘the last appetite, or aversion, immediately adhering to the action, or the

omission thereof’ When different appetites or aversions draw towards mutually exclusive courses of

action, reason (deliberation) functions to solve internal conflict Language of reason: consequentialist Language of desire: imperative Reason tells how to best satisfy goals, but cannot be a motive force

State of nature and social contract Felicity (precursor to utility): continuous, perpetual desire State of nature: continuous war amongst men, driven by ceaseless individualistic

desires Ultimate desire: preservation of life Reason dictates to follow general rules, accept common, absolute authority

(Leviathan, ‘a common power to keep all in awe’) that guarantees peace and order Forfeiting immediate need satisfaction for continuity and safety ‘Reason is the pace; increase of science, the way; and the benefit of mankind, the

end.’

David Hume (1711-1776)

All action product of reason and desire‘Reason alone can never be a motive to any action of

the will’‘Reason is, and ought only to be the slave of the

passions’Ultimate ends are not subject to rational criticismPractical reason: conditional imperative (evaluate

actions with regard to whether they are best capable to bring about desired ends)

Immanuel Kant (1724-1804)

Categorical imperative: ‘act only on that maxim which you can at the same time will that it should become a universal law’

Moral philosophy/psychology: reason as motive to the will

Rationality: moral, autonomous individual who must respect autonomy of others

Actions should be judged by their motives not their consequences (which necessitates that reason is a motive force)

The public use of reason

Jeremy Bentham (1749-1832)

Principle of utility: ‘approves or disapproves of every action whatsoever, according to the

tendency which it appears to have to augment or diminish the happiness of the party whose interest is in question’

Rational action is result-orientedReason is not just slave to desires (as in Hume), more

active, can override passion, if overall balance of happiness is served

Rational choice becomes an exercise in maximisationUtilitarianism contains a psychological hypothesis

about the nature of desires or pleasures

Economics – homo economicus

MotivationsJS Mill: higher and lower pleasuresNeoclassical economists: rational agents driven solely by self-interestPareto: indifference curves, allowing to indicate the likelihood of a

person preferring one consumption good over another at a given price Utility maximisation: choosing in accordance with given set of

preferences ‘the theory of economic science thus acquires the rigour of rational

mechanics; it deduces its results from experience, without bringing in any metaphysical entity’

Substantive/objective rationalityGame against natureConsidering only constraints that arise from external situationRational behaviour – adaptive to given choice situationPreferences: transitiveDeterministic (or probabilistic) model of behaviour

Economics - markets

Assuming perfect competition, informationJust price theory:

Demand and supply determine optimal prices for producer and consumer

Invisible hand mechanismMarkets are self-regulating entitiesEven assuming asocial, self-interested individuals, their interaction is

assumed to be socially beneficial

Psychology – bounded rationality

Classical model of rationality Logic ‘is nothing if not the physics of thought’ (Theodor Lipps) Treating probability theory and logic as approximations of human inference Measuring human performance in inferential tasks (Kahnemann & Tverski)

Bounded rationality Limitations of human knowledge and computing power Uncertainty Potentially rendering human reasoning incapable of making objectively optimal

choices Choices can only be as effective as human decision-making and problem-

solving means permit Bounded rationality: decision-making adaptive to constraints imposed both by

external situation and by capacities of decision-maker Satisficing

Political Science: formal theories

Formal rational/public choice theory Deductive Parsimonious Neither normative, nor descriptive, but positive Methodological individualism Instrumental rationality

Economic definition of rationality: ‘rational as efficient’; ‘never applied to an agent’s ends but only to his means’ (Downs)

Exogenous, fixed preferences Unitary, paradigmatic theory Challenging behaviouralist paradigm Modelling voters, politicians, parties, governments as self-interested agents Political markets Minimalist theory of democracy

Invisible hand mechanism in politics Responsible party model Less elitist, more ‘optimistic’ model of democracy than Schumpeter

Political Science: modelling behaviour

Applications of rational choice in political science Collective action (Mancur Olsen) Voting/party competition (Kenneth Arrow, Anthony Downs, Duncan Black,

William Riker) Minimalist theory of democracy

Pathologies Free riding Paradox of voting Vote cycles Sophisticated voting

International relations – from reason to rationality

Reason and world politicsLiberal materialism: human reason offers collective mastering over forces that

precipitated world war

Realism (Morgenthau): ‘our civilization assumes that the social world is susceptible to rational control conceived after the model of natural sciences, while the experiences, domestic and international, of the age contradict this assumption’

Realism and rationalityAnarchist international systemNational self-interestTemporary nature of alliancesApplication of Hobbesian ‘state of nature’State rationality

Treating the polity ‘as unitary actor, with coherent and stable values, well-grounded beliefs, and a capacity to carry out its decisions’ (Elster)

Strategy in foreign affairs

Game theoryRational choice – game against natureTaking strategic behaviour of others into accountBenefits from (feasibility of) actions may partly depend on chosen

strategy of othersModelling interaction under uncertainty

ApplicationsDeterrence theoryUse of specific games (e.g. prisoner’s dilemma) to analyse historical

conflicts (e.g. Cuban missile crisis)Deducing political predictions/judgments (e.g. Kenneth Waltz’

argument that nuclear capability will render North Korea’s foreign politics more reasonable)