portuguese nec programme (pten) workshop on plans and programmes of air quality and nec directives...

Portuguese NEC Programme (PTEN)

Workshop on Plans and Programmes of Air Quality and NEC DirectivesBrussels, September 2004

Portuguese NEC ProgrammeBrussels, September 2004

Overview

Setting up PTEN PTEN: Portuguese NEC Programme

Projections and its uncertainty National Economic growth Articulation with related policies Emissions Monitoring NEC Consistent reporting

Future work

Setting up PTEN


Business as Usual Scenario

Reference Scenario

2010

Policy Instruments in Place, 2010

2000

Emissions Sector scenarios for energy demand

Emissions estimates – BAU scenario

Assessment of effectiveness of Policy

instruments in place

Emissions estimates – Reference

scenario

Assessment of the additional emission

reduction effort

Identification of additional necessary

emission reduction Policies & Measures

Methodology framework


Information base – national emission inventories; year 2000 Sector validation with stakeholders – improvement of National

inventories and increase awareness of involved parties

2 versions: 2002 and 2004 Improvements in previous version were made within the scope of CAFE

bilateral consultation process

Developed simultaneously with National Climate Change Programme Better articulation with Energy, Transport and Climate Change Policies

Methodology framework


Adoption and implementation

Enforcement of policy instruments already in place (Reference scenario)

Follow-up of compliance with national commitments

Divulgation of PTEN to stakeholders – sector meetings

Portuguese NEC Programme


Projections - methodology

Demographic scenarios

Energy demand model

Energy supply models

Electricity generation

expansion plans

Policy instruments

in place

Processes emissions

Macroeconomic & sector scenarios

Emissions


Projections Macro-economic & sector scenarios

Sector validation with stakeholders (cement, pulp & paper, refineries, electricity supply, glass, ceramics)

Two scenarios: low and high growth Uncertainty is assumed, although no quantification

Lack of certainty regarding the assessed 2010 effectiveness of the policy instruments in place IPPC allows for great flexibility in setting Emission Limit Values Lack of detailed knowledge on the universe of activities within

the scope of solvent and transport Directives


Projections Identified divergences with EU scenarios

PTEN has a sector approach vs technology used in EU wide

scenarios which somehow hampers detailed comparison

Energy supply & demand – e.g. PTEN considers: CHP in 2000;

no new capacity of Coal Power Plants in 2010; 1.64 Mtoe

(PRIMES 0.94 Mtoe ) oil consumption in thermal power

production in 2010

Emission Factors – e.g. level of implementation of certain end-

of-pipe technologies and its effectiveness (e.g. PTEN considers

0.27kt NOx/PJ for low NOx burners – RAINS considers 0.39)

Policy instruments – e.g. PTEN considers 100% effectiveness of

adopted instruments (e.g. 39% power generated from renewable

resources in 2010)


National Economic Growth

Macro-economic scenarios in use by the Portuguese Government

0

0,5

1

1,5

2

2,5

3

3,5

4

4,5

1973-2000 2000-2015 2016-2025

Low

Central

High

GDP annual real growth rate


Articulation with related policies

• NOx, SO2, Ozone Emission, Air Quality Framework Directive• GHG Emissions, Burden Sharing Agreement_Kyoto Protocol• (...)

Air Quality

PTEN

EU Policy Instruments National Policy InstrumentsUnder implementation or final development

•IPPC Directive(96/61/EC)•LCP Directive(2001/80/EC)•Directive E-FRE (2001/77/EC)•Directives S content in Fuels; Env. Charact. Fuel (2000/71/EC & 98/70/EC)•Directive NMVOC Solvents (99/13/EC)•Directive S content in Fuel (1999/32/EC)•Directive NMVOC Gasoline (94/63/EC)

Other instruments

•ACEA Agreement •Burden Sharing Agreement; ECCP

Under implementation (regulatory & other)

• Ordnance 646/97 (NMVOC Gasoline)• Decree-Law 194/2000 (IPPC)• Decree-Law 242/2001 (NMVOC Solvents)• POE_Rev. MAPE (Ordn. 383/2002)• Programme E4 (Res. CM 154/2001)• Programme 3E • Programme Solar Heated Water Portugal• Reviewed Expansion Plan for the Electricity Supply• Portuguese Energy Policy Guidelines (Res. CM 63/2003)• National Climate Change Programme (PNAC)• Plan for National Network of Logistic Platforms


Emissions: Reductions due to current P&M

Policies & Measures SO2

Directive 98/70/EC (S content of fuels – agriculture) not assessed

Directives 99/32/EC (S content of fuels) 29-31

IPPC (& LCP) Directives 80

E-FRE, E4 17-8

Reviewed expansion plan for electricity supply 17-8

Solar H2O, Energy efficiency in buildings 0.3-0.4

Total reduction 130-122

Directives 98/69, 98/70, 99/32 and ACEA n.d.

Auto-oil (voluntary agreements) 0.029

Bio-fuels 0.042

Total reduction 0.07

Reductions in 2010 (kton)

Tra

nsp

ort

sE

ner

gy

sup

ply

&

dem

and

Total SO2 reduction 131-122



Policies & Measures NOx

IPPC (& LCP) Directives 25-26

E-FRE, E4 6-5

Reviewed expansion plan for electricity supply 5-4

Solar H2O, Energy efficiency in buildings 0.8-0.96



Auto-oil (voluntary agreements) 3-3

Bio-fuels 1

Total reduction 4


Tra

nsp

ort

s

Total NOx reduction 38 - 37

En

erg

y su

pp

ly

& d

eman

d



Policies & Measures NMVOC

IPPC Directive 21-22

Directive 94/63/EC (gasoline storage) 8-9

Directive 99/13/EC (solvents) 15-17


Directives 98/69, 98/70, 99/32 and ACEA n.a.

Auto-oil (voluntary agreements) 1

Bio-fuels 3

Total reduction 4


Tra

nsp

ort

sF

uel

su

pp

ly &

S

olv

ent

con

sum

pti

on

Total NMVOC reduction 48 - 52



Policies & Measures NH3

IPPC Directive (production of fertilisers) 3-4

Total reduction 3-4

IPPC Directive 10

Total reduction 10


Auto-oil (voluntary agreements) 0.1

Bio-fuels 0.3

Total reduction 0.4


Tra

nsp

ort

sIn

du

str

yL

ive

sto

ck

Total NH3 reduction 14


Related policies - CChange Assessed reduction potential of non-GHG from PNAC

additional measures for transportation

SO2 NOx NMVOC NH3

Reduction in 2010 (kt)

0.095 8.648 5.710 0.57


National Emissions

32

71

39

14

5 16

0

29

9

22

0 23

22

50

24

92

01

22

21

80

89

84

85 90

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

kto

n

SO2 NOx COVNM NH3

2000Low scenario 2010High scenario2010NEC

21 to 42 kt


Sector breakdown 2010 (low scenario)

68

2813

63

58108

7626

19

6

41

33

73

8

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

175

200

225

SO2 NOX NMVOC NH3

Waste

Agriculture

Residential

Services

Transport

Industry &Construction

Energysupply

kt


72

3014

64

61

123

81

28

206

44

34

73

8

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

175

200

225

250

SO2 NOX NMVOC NH3

Waste

Agriculture

Residential

Services

Transport

Industry &Construction

Energysupply

Sector breakdown 2010 (high scenario)

kt


Compliance with NMVOC NEC

High uncertainty of NMVOC national inventories

Emissions in 2010 (kt) Low High

Business as Usual Scenario 248.1 273.6

Reference Scenario 200.7 221.9

Distance to target -20.7 -41.9

Paints & Varnishes Directive -10.4 -11.3

Expected reduction IPPC chemical sector -4.9 -5.7

Additional GHG reduction measures for Transport -5.7 -5.7

Distance to target +0.3 -19.2

Improved wood combustion tech. residential sector (high uncertainty of potential effectiveness)

-4.8 -5.1


NMVOC Emissions Required reduction of 21-42 kt in 2010 EU Directive for Paints and Varnishes will reduce 10-

11kt in 2010 56-60kt emitted in 2010 from activities out of the scope

of current and planned P&M:% of 2010 total emissions

Use of diverse products in residential sector 11 (20-23kt)

Wood combustion in residential sector 8-7 (16kt)

Combustion in industry and construction 4 (7-8kt)

Road paving with asphalt 2 (3-4kt)

Burning of agricultural waste 2 (3kt)

Other activities (e.g. bread & wine production, waste water) 2 (7-6kt)


Monitoring PTEN’s monitoring developed on 2 levels:

Emissions – continual improvement of national inventories

Policy measures – depends on the “owner” of the policy

3 key-monitoring moments: 2005, 2008, 2010

Public governance

Stakeholders

Policy instruments

A

BC

A – Responsibility

B – Execution

C – Monitoring

Future work


Future work EU

Mainstreaming reporting obligation New EU instruments on NMVOC reduction on:

several residential products (e.g. waxes, detergents, cosmetics)

combustion in residential sector asphalt paving

Portugal Improve national NMVOC inventories Improve characterization of combustion in residential

sector (number and type of equipments, date of implementation, etc.)

…


Related policies – Air quality SO2: P&M within PTEN relevant but not decisive

NOx: Transport P&M quite relevant

O3: insufficient information to decide on importance of P&M

Policies & Measures

within PTEN 1h 8-24h 1yr Local Regional National

Directive 98/70/EC - - *

Directives LCP, 99/32/EC * * *

Directives 99/13/EC,94/63/EC * *

E-FRE, E4, Expansion electricity system *

Energy efficiency in buildings - - - - - -

Solar Water Heating - - - - - -

IPPC Directive * * *

Directives 98/69, 98/70, 99/32 * * *

Bio-fuels & Auto-oil - - - -

Air Quality Improvements

* Scale of effects- - Not significantImprovementDecisive improvement

portuguese nec programme (pten) workshop on plans and programmes of air quality and nec directives...

Documents

pten slide

nec directives brussels

pten pten

programme e4

emissions sector scenarios

e programme solar

eu scenarios pten

ec directive s content