Portuguese NEC Programme (PTEN)
Workshop on Plans and Programmes of Air Quality and NEC DirectivesBrussels, September 2004
Portuguese NEC ProgrammeBrussels, September 2004
Overview
Setting up PTEN PTEN: Portuguese NEC Programme
Projections and its uncertainty National Economic growth Articulation with related policies Emissions Monitoring NEC Consistent reporting
Future work
Setting up PTEN
Portuguese NEC ProgrammeBrussels, September 2004
Business as Usual Scenario
Reference Scenario
2010
Policy Instruments in Place, 2010
2000
Emissions Sector scenarios for energy demand
Emissions estimates – BAU scenario
Assessment of effectiveness of Policy
instruments in place
Emissions estimates – Reference
scenario
Assessment of the additional emission
reduction effort
Identification of additional necessary
emission reduction Policies & Measures
Methodology framework
Portuguese NEC ProgrammeBrussels, September 2004
Information base – national emission inventories; year 2000 Sector validation with stakeholders – improvement of National
inventories and increase awareness of involved parties
2 versions: 2002 and 2004 Improvements in previous version were made within the scope of CAFE
bilateral consultation process
Developed simultaneously with National Climate Change Programme Better articulation with Energy, Transport and Climate Change Policies
Methodology framework
Portuguese NEC ProgrammeBrussels, September 2004
Adoption and implementation
Enforcement of policy instruments already in place (Reference scenario)
Follow-up of compliance with national commitments
Divulgation of PTEN to stakeholders – sector meetings
Portuguese NEC Programme
Portuguese NEC ProgrammeBrussels, September 2004
Projections - methodology
Demographic scenarios
Energy demand model
Energy supply models
Electricity generation
expansion plans
Policy instruments
in place
Processes emissions
Macroeconomic & sector scenarios
Emissions
Portuguese NEC ProgrammeBrussels, September 2004
Projections Macro-economic & sector scenarios
Sector validation with stakeholders (cement, pulp & paper, refineries, electricity supply, glass, ceramics)
Two scenarios: low and high growth Uncertainty is assumed, although no quantification
Lack of certainty regarding the assessed 2010 effectiveness of the policy instruments in place IPPC allows for great flexibility in setting Emission Limit Values Lack of detailed knowledge on the universe of activities within
the scope of solvent and transport Directives
Portuguese NEC ProgrammeBrussels, September 2004
Projections Identified divergences with EU scenarios
PTEN has a sector approach vs technology used in EU wide
scenarios which somehow hampers detailed comparison
Energy supply & demand – e.g. PTEN considers: CHP in 2000;
no new capacity of Coal Power Plants in 2010; 1.64 Mtoe
(PRIMES 0.94 Mtoe ) oil consumption in thermal power
production in 2010
Emission Factors – e.g. level of implementation of certain end-
of-pipe technologies and its effectiveness (e.g. PTEN considers
0.27kt NOx/PJ for low NOx burners – RAINS considers 0.39)
Policy instruments – e.g. PTEN considers 100% effectiveness of
adopted instruments (e.g. 39% power generated from renewable
resources in 2010)
Portuguese NEC ProgrammeBrussels, September 2004
National Economic Growth
Macro-economic scenarios in use by the Portuguese Government
0
0,5
1
1,5
2
2,5
3
3,5
4
4,5
1973-2000 2000-2015 2016-2025
Low
Central
High
GDP annual real growth rate
Portuguese NEC ProgrammeBrussels, September 2004
Articulation with related policies
• NOx, SO2, Ozone Emission, Air Quality Framework Directive• GHG Emissions, Burden Sharing Agreement_Kyoto Protocol• (...)
Air Quality
PTEN
EU Policy Instruments National Policy InstrumentsUnder implementation or final development
•IPPC Directive(96/61/EC)•LCP Directive(2001/80/EC)•Directive E-FRE (2001/77/EC)•Directives S content in Fuels; Env. Charact. Fuel (2000/71/EC & 98/70/EC)•Directive NMVOC Solvents (99/13/EC)•Directive S content in Fuel (1999/32/EC)•Directive NMVOC Gasoline (94/63/EC)
Other instruments
•ACEA Agreement •Burden Sharing Agreement; ECCP
Under implementation (regulatory & other)
• Ordnance 646/97 (NMVOC Gasoline)• Decree-Law 194/2000 (IPPC)• Decree-Law 242/2001 (NMVOC Solvents)• POE_Rev. MAPE (Ordn. 383/2002)• Programme E4 (Res. CM 154/2001)• Programme 3E • Programme Solar Heated Water Portugal• Reviewed Expansion Plan for the Electricity Supply• Portuguese Energy Policy Guidelines (Res. CM 63/2003)• National Climate Change Programme (PNAC)• Plan for National Network of Logistic Platforms
Portuguese NEC ProgrammeBrussels, September 2004
Emissions: Reductions due to current P&M
Policies & Measures SO2
Directive 98/70/EC (S content of fuels – agriculture) not assessed
Directives 99/32/EC (S content of fuels) 29-31
IPPC (& LCP) Directives 80
E-FRE, E4 17-8
Reviewed expansion plan for electricity supply 17-8
Solar H2O, Energy efficiency in buildings 0.3-0.4
Total reduction 130-122
Directives 98/69, 98/70, 99/32 and ACEA n.d.
Auto-oil (voluntary agreements) 0.029
Bio-fuels 0.042
Total reduction 0.07
Reductions in 2010 (kton)
Tra
nsp
ort
sE
ner
gy
sup
ply
&
dem
and
Total SO2 reduction 131-122
Portuguese NEC ProgrammeBrussels, September 2004
Emissions: Reductions due to current P&M
Policies & Measures NOx
IPPC (& LCP) Directives 25-26
E-FRE, E4 6-5
Reviewed expansion plan for electricity supply 5-4
Solar H2O, Energy efficiency in buildings 0.8-0.96
Total reduction 34-33
Directives 98/69, 98/70, 99/32 and ACEA n.d.
Auto-oil (voluntary agreements) 3-3
Bio-fuels 1
Total reduction 4
Reductions in 2010 (kton)
Tra
nsp
ort
s
Total NOx reduction 38 - 37
En
erg
y su
pp
ly
& d
eman
d
Portuguese NEC ProgrammeBrussels, September 2004
Emissions: Reductions due to current P&M
Policies & Measures NMVOC
IPPC Directive 21-22
Directive 94/63/EC (gasoline storage) 8-9
Directive 99/13/EC (solvents) 15-17
Total reduction 44-48
Directives 98/69, 98/70, 99/32 and ACEA n.a.
Auto-oil (voluntary agreements) 1
Bio-fuels 3
Total reduction 4
Reductions in 2010 (kton)
Tra
nsp
ort
sF
uel
su
pp
ly &
S
olv
ent
con
sum
pti
on
Total NMVOC reduction 48 - 52
Portuguese NEC ProgrammeBrussels, September 2004
Emissions: Reductions due to current P&M
Policies & Measures NH3
IPPC Directive (production of fertilisers) 3-4
Total reduction 3-4
IPPC Directive 10
Total reduction 10
Directives 98/69, 98/70, 99/32 and ACEA n.d.
Auto-oil (voluntary agreements) 0.1
Bio-fuels 0.3
Total reduction 0.4
Reductions in 2010 (kton)
Tra
nsp
ort
sIn
du
str
yL
ive
sto
ck
Total NH3 reduction 14
Portuguese NEC ProgrammeBrussels, September 2004
Related policies - CChange Assessed reduction potential of non-GHG from PNAC
additional measures for transportation
SO2 NOx NMVOC NH3
Reduction in 2010 (kt)
0.095 8.648 5.710 0.57
Portuguese NEC ProgrammeBrussels, September 2004
National Emissions
32
71
39
14
5 16
0
29
9
22
0 23
22
50
24
92
01
22
21
80
89
84
85 90
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
kto
n
SO2 NOx COVNM NH3
2000Low scenario 2010High scenario2010NEC
21 to 42 kt
Portuguese NEC ProgrammeBrussels, September 2004
Sector breakdown 2010 (low scenario)
68
2813
63
58108
7626
19
6
41
33
73
8
0
25
50
75
100
125
150
175
200
225
SO2 NOX NMVOC NH3
Waste
Agriculture
Residential
Services
Transport
Industry &Construction
Energysupply
kt
Portuguese NEC ProgrammeBrussels, September 2004
72
3014
64
61
123
81
28
206
44
34
73
8
0
25
50
75
100
125
150
175
200
225
250
SO2 NOX NMVOC NH3
Waste
Agriculture
Residential
Services
Transport
Industry &Construction
Energysupply
Sector breakdown 2010 (high scenario)
kt
Portuguese NEC ProgrammeBrussels, September 2004
Compliance with NMVOC NEC
High uncertainty of NMVOC national inventories
Emissions in 2010 (kt) Low High
Business as Usual Scenario 248.1 273.6
Reference Scenario 200.7 221.9
Distance to target -20.7 -41.9
Paints & Varnishes Directive -10.4 -11.3
Expected reduction IPPC chemical sector -4.9 -5.7
Additional GHG reduction measures for Transport -5.7 -5.7
Distance to target +0.3 -19.2
Improved wood combustion tech. residential sector (high uncertainty of potential effectiveness)
-4.8 -5.1
Portuguese NEC ProgrammeBrussels, September 2004
NMVOC Emissions Required reduction of 21-42 kt in 2010 EU Directive for Paints and Varnishes will reduce 10-
11kt in 2010 56-60kt emitted in 2010 from activities out of the scope
of current and planned P&M:% of 2010 total emissions
Use of diverse products in residential sector 11 (20-23kt)
Wood combustion in residential sector 8-7 (16kt)
Combustion in industry and construction 4 (7-8kt)
Road paving with asphalt 2 (3-4kt)
Burning of agricultural waste 2 (3kt)
Other activities (e.g. bread & wine production, waste water) 2 (7-6kt)
Portuguese NEC ProgrammeBrussels, September 2004
Monitoring PTEN’s monitoring developed on 2 levels:
Emissions – continual improvement of national inventories
Policy measures – depends on the “owner” of the policy
3 key-monitoring moments: 2005, 2008, 2010
Public governance
Stakeholders
Policy instruments
A
BC
A – Responsibility
B – Execution
C – Monitoring
Future work
Portuguese NEC ProgrammeBrussels, September 2004
Future work EU
Mainstreaming reporting obligation New EU instruments on NMVOC reduction on:
several residential products (e.g. waxes, detergents, cosmetics)
combustion in residential sector asphalt paving
Portugal Improve national NMVOC inventories Improve characterization of combustion in residential
sector (number and type of equipments, date of implementation, etc.)
…
Portuguese NEC ProgrammeBrussels, September 2004
Related policies – Air quality SO2: P&M within PTEN relevant but not decisive
NOx: Transport P&M quite relevant
O3: insufficient information to decide on importance of P&M
Policies & Measures
within PTEN 1h 8-24h 1yr Local Regional National
Directive 98/70/EC - - *
Directives LCP, 99/32/EC * * *
Directives 99/13/EC,94/63/EC * *
E-FRE, E4, Expansion electricity system *
Energy efficiency in buildings - - - - - -
Solar Water Heating - - - - - -
IPPC Directive * * *
Directives 98/69, 98/70, 99/32 * * *
Bio-fuels & Auto-oil - - - -
Air Quality Improvements
* Scale of effects- - Not significantImprovementDecisive improvement