Population Size Population Size Factors (7-2)Factors (7-2)Jeff RobergeJeff Roberge

Growth or DeclineGrowth or Decline

Populations can shrink or growPopulations can shrink or grow Based on Based on population changepopulation change Pop change=(B+I)-(D+E)Pop change=(B+I)-(D+E) Measured annuallyMeasured annually When (B+I) larger, pop increasesWhen (B+I) larger, pop increases (D+E) larger, pop decreases(D+E) larger, pop decreases Population change= number of people Population change= number of people

added or taken from total population each added or taken from total population each year of a specified locationyear of a specified location

(“Texas Population”)

Growth or DeclineGrowth or Decline

Demographers study populationsDemographers study populations Use Use crude birth ratecrude birth rate and and Crude death rateCrude death rate Equal to number of deaths/births per 1000 Equal to number of deaths/births per 1000

peoplepeople

(“National Population”)

PopulationPopulation

Population GraphPopulation Graph China most populousChina most populous Then IndiaThen India And USAAnd USA

(Miller)

Population StabilizationPopulation Stabilization

Have fewer babies to control populationHave fewer babies to control population Fertility RateFertility Rate-number of children born to a -number of children born to a

womanwoman Two types: Two types: Replacement-level fertility rateReplacement-level fertility rate

and and total fertility rate total fertility rate (TFR)(TFR) Replacement= ave. number of children to Replacement= ave. number of children to

replace the parents (usu. ~2.1)replace the parents (usu. ~2.1) Still does not control pop. because children will Still does not control pop. because children will

begin to have children, carries on growth for 50 begin to have children, carries on growth for 50 more yearsmore years

TFR= ave. number of children per womanTFR= ave. number of children per woman

(“Below Replacement”)

Population StabilizationPopulation Stabilization

TFR has been decliningTFR has been declining 2007 Global ave=2.72007 Global ave=2.7

Developed countries 1.6 (from 2.5 in 1950)Developed countries 1.6 (from 2.5 in 1950) Developing countries 2.9 (from 6.5 in 1950)Developing countries 2.9 (from 6.5 in 1950) Still above replacement-level of 2.1Still above replacement-level of 2.1 Therefore pop is not decliningTherefore pop is not declining

(Da Vanzo)

Factors Affecting BirthFactors Affecting Birth

Children as laborersChildren as laborers Cost of children (education, Cost of children (education,

Costs $250,000 to raise child Costs $250,000 to raise child to 18)to 18)

Possibility to attain a pensionPossibility to attain a pension Urban living vs. rural livingUrban living vs. rural living Advancement opportunities Advancement opportunities

for womenfor women

Infant mortality rateInfant mortality rate-# of -# of death per 1000 of children death per 1000 of children under 1 years oldunder 1 years old

Age when marriedAge when married Ability to get abortionsAbility to get abortions Birth controlBirth control Religious beliefsReligious beliefs Tradition and cultureTradition and culture

Factors Affecting DeathFactors Affecting Death

Life ExpectancyLife Expectancy-ave. number of years -ave. number of years expected to liveexpected to live

NutritionNutrition DiseaseDisease Medical availabilityMedical availability Health care for pregnant womenHealth care for pregnant women

Population ChangePopulation Change

Caused by:Caused by: birth ratesbirth rates Fallen/risen death ratesFallen/risen death rates Emigration/Immigration Emigration/Immigration MigrationMigration-moving of people into or out of a -moving of people into or out of a

populationpopulation Seek better jobs, improvementSeek better jobs, improvement Conflicts, political strife, war, disasters, Conflicts, political strife, war, disasters,

escape religious intolerationescape religious intoleration

Case StudiesCase Studies

US PopulationUS Population 76 mil (1900) to 302 mil (2007)76 mil (1900) to 302 mil (2007) 1946-1964 is the baby boom (79 mil added to 1946-1964 is the baby boom (79 mil added to

population)population) Max TFR was 3.7, but now around replacement Max TFR was 3.7, but now around replacement

levellevel 2007 TFR was 2.05; 1.6 in China2007 TFR was 2.05; 1.6 in China USA still growing: 60% births, 40% immigrationUSA still growing: 60% births, 40% immigration Expected to be:Expected to be:

419 mil by 2050419 mil by 2050 571 mil by 2100571 mil by 2100

(Miller)

Case StudiesCase Studies

US immigrationUS immigration Accepts twice the immigrants as all other Accepts twice the immigrants as all other

countries added togethercountries added together 40% of growth40% of growth 1820-1960- most immigrants from Europe1820-1960- most immigrants from Europe Now most from Latin America (53%), Asia Now most from Latin America (53%), Asia

(25%), Europe (14%)(25%), Europe (14%) Of Latin America: 67% are MexicansOf Latin America: 67% are Mexicans

(Vogel)

Case StudiesCase Studies

For immigrationFor immigration Need it to keep culture and standing as Need it to keep culture and standing as

place of better horizonsplace of better horizons Needed for jobs most others reject, boost Needed for jobs most others reject, boost

economyeconomy

Case StudiesCase Studies

Against- 60% of people against imm.Against- 60% of people against imm. Mostly poorMostly poor Will help stop population growthWill help stop population growth Better for ecological footprint with less Better for ecological footprint with less

peoplepeople

(“Immivasion”)

ConclusionConclusion

Population grows through increased Population grows through increased births/decreased deaths and higher births/decreased deaths and higher immigration than emigrationimmigration than emigration

Population is mostly decided by total Population is mostly decided by total fertility ratefertility rate

Works CitedWorks Cited““Below Replacement Fertility.” Below Replacement Fertility.” Singapore: The Last Ten YearsSingapore: The Last Ten Years. Aug. 2001. . Aug. 2001.

4 Jan. 2009 <http://www.gov.sg/ndr/p62.htm>.4 Jan. 2009 <http://www.gov.sg/ndr/p62.htm>.Da Vanzo, Julie and David Adamson. “Russia’s Demographic ‘Crisis’: How Da Vanzo, Julie and David Adamson. “Russia’s Demographic ‘Crisis’: How

Real is it?” July 1997. Center for Russian and Eurasian Studies. 4 Jan. Real is it?” July 1997. Center for Russian and Eurasian Studies. 4 Jan. 2009 <http://www.rand.org/pubs/issue_papers/IP162/index2.html>.2009 <http://www.rand.org/pubs/issue_papers/IP162/index2.html>.

““Immivasion.” 2003. 4 Jan. 2009 <http://www.immivasion.us/>.Immivasion.” 2003. 4 Jan. 2009 <http://www.immivasion.us/>.Miller, Jr., G. Tyler, and Scott Spoolman. Environmental Science: Problems, Miller, Jr., G. Tyler, and Scott Spoolman. Environmental Science: Problems,

Concepts, and Solutions. 12th ed. US: Cengage Learning, 2008.Concepts, and Solutions. 12th ed. US: Cengage Learning, 2008.““National Population Report.” National Population Report.” Development Planning Unit of the British Virgin Development Planning Unit of the British Virgin

IslandsIslands. 21 Nov. 2005. 4 Jan. 2009 . 21 Nov. 2005. 4 Jan. 2009 <http://www.dpu.gov.vg/AboutOurCountry/NationalPopRepICPD/Images/<http://www.dpu.gov.vg/AboutOurCountry/NationalPopRepICPD/Images/4.2.4.gif>.4.2.4.gif>.

““Texas Population Change 1900-2000.” 11 July 2005. Texas Department of Texas Population Change 1900-2000.” 11 July 2005. Texas Department of State Health Services. 4 Jan. 2009 State Health Services. 4 Jan. 2009 <http://www.dshs.state.tx.us/chs/gis/PopulationChangeMap.shtm>.<http://www.dshs.state.tx.us/chs/gis/PopulationChangeMap.shtm>.

Vogel, Richard D. “Mexican and Central American Labor: The Crux of the Vogel, Richard D. “Mexican and Central American Labor: The Crux of the Immigration Issue in the U.S.” 20 June 2006. 4 Jan. 2009 Immigration Issue in the U.S.” 20 June 2006. 4 Jan. 2009 <http://mrzine.monthlyreview.org/vogel200606.html>.<http://mrzine.monthlyreview.org/vogel200606.html>.