population, housing, & employment orange county, california victoria basolo, ph.d., aicp...

Population, Housing, & Population, Housing, & EmploymentEmployment

Orange County, CaliforniaOrange County, California

Victoria Basolo, Ph.D., AICP

Department of Planning, Policy, and Design

University of California, Irvine

Presented: May 2, 2003

POPULATIONPOPULATION

Population, Percent Change 1990-2000Population, Percent Change 1990-2000

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

Orange LosAngeles

Riverside SanBernardino

San Diego CA

Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 1990 Census, STF 1; Census 2000, SF 1.

Population Density, 1990 & 2000Population Density, 1990 & 2000

0

400

800

1200

1600

2000

2400

2800

3200

3600

4000

Orange LosAngeles


San Diego CA

1990

2000

Persons persquare mile


Population by Age Groups, 1990 & 2000Population by Age Groups, 1990 & 2000

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Orange Riverside San Diego

65 and over

45-64

25-44

18-24

Under 18

Orange Riverside San Diego 1990 2000 1990 2000 1990 2000


0

500000

1000000

1500000

2000000

2500000

3000000

3500000

4000000

4500000

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

Orange

Riverside

San Diego

Population Projections, 2000-2020Population Projections, 2000-2020

Source: California Department of Finance, 2000

• Orange County grew by 18.1% from 1990 to 2000, faster than the State as a whole

• Over the next 20 years, the County is expected to grow by an additional 22.4%

• Much of the increase in population will be from natural increase, existing residents maturing through the life cycle

Orange County Population SummaryOrange County Population Summary

HOUSINGHOUSING

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

Orange LosAngeles


San Diego CA

Housing Units, Percent Change 1990-2000Housing Units, Percent Change 1990-2000


0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Orange LosAngeles


San Diego CA

1990

2000

Homeownership Rates, 1990 & 2000Homeownership Rates, 1990 & 2000


Percent Single-Unit Housing, 1990 & 2000Percent Single-Unit Housing, 1990 & 2000


0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

Orange LosAngeles


San Diego CA

1990

2000

Percent Multi-Unit Housing, 1990 & 2000*Percent Multi-Unit Housing, 1990 & 2000*


*Includes mobile homes

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

Orange LosAngeles


San Diego CA

1990

2000

Owner Vacancy Rates, 1990 & 2000Owner Vacancy Rates, 1990 & 2000

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

Orange LosAngeles


San Diego CA

19902000


Rental Vacancy Rates, 1990 & 2000Rental Vacancy Rates, 1990 & 2000

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

Orange LosAngeles


San Diego CA

19902000


0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

Orange Riverside San Diego

Median Value

Median Contract Rent

Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 1990 Census, STF 1 and 3; Census 2000, SF 3.

Median Housing Value and Rent, 1990 & 2000Median Housing Value and Rent, 1990 & 2000

Housing CostsHousing Costs

Index1 Rank2 FMR3 FMR3 FMR4th qtr. Rents Rents % Increase

MSA 2001 2001 2002 2001-2002

Orange (County) 37 19 1046 1097 4.9%San Bernardino-Riverside 50.8 37 621 656 5.6%San Diego 22.4 8 896 1012 12.9%

1 Housing Opportunity Index (NAHB, 2002): Share of homes affordable to median income2 Rank of MSA out of 181 regions across the nation (NAHB, 2002)3 Fair Market Rent for a 2 bedroom unit (HUD, 2002)

Overcrowding Rates, 1990 & 2000Overcrowding Rates, 1990 & 2000


0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

Orange LosAngeles


San Diego CA

1990

2000

• Orange County housing stock grew by 10.8% from 1990 to 2000, lagging behind demand as are many of CA housing markets

• In 2000, vacancy rates were very low at less than 1% for owner housing and 3% for renter housing

• Median housing value increased by about 7% and Median contract rent at just over 18% from 1990 to 2000

• Orange County housing is very expensive• Overcrowded units increased by 15.7% in the

1990s.

Orange County Housing SummaryOrange County Housing Summary

EMPLOYMENTEMPLOYMENT

Employment Change, 1990 to 2000Employment Change, 1990 to 2000


1990 2000 % Change

Orange County 1,292,472 1,338,838 3.59%Los Angeles 4,203,792 3,953,415 -5.96%Riverside 488,257 602,856 23.47%San Bernardino 591,371 661,272 11.82%San Diego 1,145,266 1,241,258 8.38%California 13,996,309 14,718,928 5.16%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

Orange CA

1990

2000

Unemployment Rates, 1990 & 2000Unemployment Rates, 1990 & 2000


Orange County Employment by Industry, 2000Orange County Employment by Industry, 2000

6.1%

16.1%

8.8%2.9%17.0%

12.6%

2.9%

11.2%

3.6%8.3%5.0% 0.4%5.0%

Agriculture, forestry, fishing and mining

Arts, Entertainment, Recr., Accom. &Food Serv.

Construction

Education, Health, & Social Services

Finance, Insurance & Real Estate

Information

Manufacturing

Professional, Scientific, Mngmnt., Admin.,& Waste Mngmnt Serv.

Public Administration

Retail

Transportation, Warehousing, & Utilities

Wholesale Trade

Other ServicesSource: U.S. Census Bureau. Census 2000, SF 3

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Orange LosAngeles


San Diego

1990

2000


Percent Work and Live in Same County, Percent Work and Live in Same County, 1990 & 20001990 & 2000

• The number of Orange County resident employees grew by 3.59% from 1990 to 2000, a much smaller increase than most of the surrounding counties

• Unemployment increased slightly from 1990 to 2000

• Residents are employed in a diverse number of industries suggesting an overall diversified economy

Orange County Employment SummaryOrange County Employment Summary

OVERALL OUTLOOKOVERALL OUTLOOK

• Housing production lags far behind demand and market “catch up” unlikely

•Identified as “High Tech” Economy by Landis & Elmer (2001)--high tech economies associated with higher cost housing

•Housing considered the most important public policy issue by only 6% of OC residents (UCI, OC Annual Survey, 2000), but cited as #1 barrier to doing business in OC (UCI, 2001 OC Executive Survey)

Growth, Housing, and the Economy Growth, Housing, and the Economy

•Existing housing needs are unmet and future population growth creates additional needs for housing

• Economy’s diversity and high tech cluster presents the need for higher middle income housing as well as housing affordable to service workers

•Housing development requires integrative, collective effort among business, residents, and public officials

Innovations Through Integrated, Innovations Through Integrated, Collective ActionCollective Action

• Cooperative development of programs to link housing and jobs– Loans to employees who stay longer terms with employers and live close to work (sliding scale from full

repayment to fully forgiven)– Rental development agreements among employers, developers, and cities/counties (lease up at market and

below market rents guaranteed for period of years)– Development incentives to developers building mixed-income housing near job centers (loans, increased density,

land at reduced cost)

• Cooperative Housing Development Fund– Regional fund receiving donations and stream of revenue from employee tax and sales tax– Land Trust (non profit) receiving donations and purchasing properties for permanent affordability

• Cooperative Effort for State Legislation– State tax credits for businesses with employer-assisted housing programs (certified by staff overseeing

regional housing fund)– State tax credits for landowners (landlords and owners) who demonstrate proximity of tenant to place of work

population, housing, & employment orange county, california victoria basolo, ph.d., aicp...

Documents

census bureau

housing slide

population slide

employment slide

overall outlook slide

orange county housing

housing units

owner housing