population, households, gross floor area and hue ... · population, households, gross floor area...

Population, Households, Gross Floor Area and HUE Projections – Background Report

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Table of Contents 1. INTRODUCTION ............................................................................................................................................................................1

2. PROJECTIONS...............................................................................................................................................................................3

2.1 USUALLY RESIDENT POPULATION ....................................................................................................................................................3

2.1.1 Gisborne District ........................................................................................................................................................3

2.1.2 Gisborne Urban Area and Rest of the District........................................................................................................4

2.2 AGE AND SEX OF THE POPULATION ................................................................................................................................................4

2.2.1 Aging Population ......................................................................................................................................................5

2.2.2 Youth ..........................................................................................................................................................................6

2.2.3 Working Age Population ..........................................................................................................................................6

2.3 HOUSEHOLDS ...............................................................................................................................................................................7

2.3.1 Explanation of Projections........................................................................................................................................7

2.3.2 Number of Households and Average Household Size in the Gisborne District ..................................................7

2.3.3 Number of Households in the Gisborne Urban Area and Rest of the District.....................................................8

2.3.4 Number of Households by Locality .........................................................................................................................9

2.4 GFA NON-RESIDENTIAL ACTIVITIES ..............................................................................................................................................10

3. METHODOLOGY AND SOURCES ...............................................................................................................................................13

3.1 USUALLY RESIDENT POPULATION ..................................................................................................................................................13

3.2 AGE AND SEX OF THE POPULATION ..............................................................................................................................................15

3.3 HOUSEHOLDS .............................................................................................................................................................................15

3.4 GFA OF NON-RESIDENTIAL ACTIVITIES .........................................................................................................................................18

APPENDIX A - GFA OF NON-RESIDENTIAL ACTIVITIES TABLES ......................................................................................................23


1. Introduction This report provides projections of population, households and Gross Floor Area of Non-Residential Activities for the Gisborne District, as well an explanation of the methodology used to develop the projections.

The projections are largely based on Statistics New Zealand population and household estimates and projections. For the projections of Gross Floor Area of non-residential activities trends were also based on the Gisborne Environment-Economy Model1 and base data was sought from the District Land Valuation Register.

The projections are intended to support the development of the Council’s Long Term Plan and other planning exercises. However they may not be appropriate for use in all planning exercises. It is important to note that they do not represent a Council ‘strategy’ for the future or a prediction of the future.

Projections are provided until 2031 or 2051. They are also provided at three different geographic scales: (1) District Wide; (2) Gisborne Urban Area and the Rest of the District; and (3) ‘Locality’ level.

Particular caution must be taken when using projections at detailed geographic level or over a long period of time, as the limitations in the base data and assumptions become more apparent. The first ten or twenty years are considered most relevant to the majority of planning exercises. Projections at locality and over the longer period are primarily for use in the Development Contribution Funding model.

Figure 1: Gisborne Urban Area

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1 Gisborne District Environment-Economy Model Business as Usual Scenario, Market Economics, May 2007 - adjusted for current population projection.


Figure 2: Localities in the Gisborne Urban Area

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2. Projections

2.1 Usually Resident Population

2.1.1 Gisborne District

The population of the Gisborne District is projected to remain around fairly constant, at around 46,000, for the projection period to 2051.

Year

2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041 2046 2051

Gisborne District 46,000 46,900 47,100 47,000 46,700 45,900 45,600 45,700 46,100 46,400

Table 1: Usually Resident Population Projection for the Gisborne District, 2006-2051

05,000

10,00015,00020,00025,00030,00035,00040,00045,00050,000

2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041 2046 2051

Year

Usua

lly R

esid

ent P

opul

atio

n

Populationat 30 June

Figure 4: Usually Resident Population Projection for the Gisborne District 2006-2051

The change in population is assumed to result from a small natural increase (births minus deaths) that declines as the population ages, and a small net migration loss that stabilises at 2046.

Year

2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041 2046 2051

Natural Increase - 5 years ended 30 June 1900 1700 1400 1100 800 700 600 400 300

Net Migration - 5 years ended 30 June -1000 -1500 -1500 -1500 -1500 -1000 -500 0 0

Table 2: Assumed Population Characteristics for the Gisborne District 2006-2051

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2.1.2 Gisborne Urban Area and Rest of the District

Population in the Gisborne Urban Area is projected to remain fairly constant at around 34,000 for the projection period to 2051, while population in the Remainder of the District is projected to remain around 12,000.

Year

2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041 2046 2051

Gisborne Urban Area 33,600 34,500 34,800 34,900 34,700 34,400 34,100 34,200 34,500 34,700

Rest of the District 12,300 12,300 12,300 12,100 11,900 11,600 11,500 11,500 11,600 11,700

Table 3: Usually Resident Population Projection for the Gisborne Urban Area and Rest of the District 2006-2051

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041 2046 2051

Year

Usua

lly R

esid

ent P

opul

atio

n

GisborneUrban Area

Rest of theDistrict

Figure 5: Usually Resident Population Projection for the Gisborne Urban Area and Rest of the District 2006-2051

2.2 Age and Sex of the Population 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031

Sex Male Fem Male Fem Male Fem Male Fem Male Fem Male Fem

0-4 1,920 1,830 2,050 1,920 1,930 1,810 1,840 1,720 1,750 1,640 1,650 1,540

5-9 1,990 1,930 1,910 1,800 2,010 1,880 1,890 1,780 1,800 1,690 1,710 1,610

10-14 2,140 2,050 1,930 1,870 1,830 1,730 1,940 1,820 1,820 1,710 1,730 1,620

15-19 1,900 1,770 1,870 1,700 1,630 1,510 1,530 1,380 1,640 1,460 1,520 1,350

20-24 1,190 1,290 1,500 1,430 1,440 1,370 1,210 1,170 1,110 1,040 1,220 1,120

25-29 1,120 1,290 1,230 1,420 1,490 1,500 1,440 1,440 1,210 1,250 1,110 1,110

30-34 1,320 1,460 1,150 1,350 1,210 1,430 1,480 1,510 1,420 1,450 1,190 1,260

35-39 1,430 1,650 1,330 1,490 1,140 1,350 1,200 1,430 1,470 1,510 1,410 1,450

40-44 1,550 1,710 1,450 1,640 1,330 1,470 1,150 1,330 1,210 1,410 1,470 1,490

45-49 1,630 1,750 1,540 1,690 1,420 1,610 1,310 1,450 1,120 1,310 1,190 1,390

Age

(yea

rs)

50-54 1,510 1,470 1,600 1,710 1,500 1,640 1,380 1,570 1,270 1,410 1,090 1,270

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2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031

Sex Male Fem Male Fem Male Fem Male Fem Male Fem Male Fem

55-59 1,320 1,300 1,460 1,430 1,540 1,650 1,450 1,590 1,330 1,520 1,230 1,360

60-64 970 960 1,270 1,250 1,400 1,380 1,480 1,590 1,390 1,530 1,290 1,470

65-69 800 870 910 920 1,180 1,190 1,320 1,310 1,390 1,520 1,320 1,470

70-74 630 710 710 800 810 850 1,070 1,110 1,200 1,230 1,270 1,430

75-79 490 630 510 620 590 700 680 750 900 980 1,020 1,090

80-84 290 450 340 490 360 490 430 560 500 610 680 810

85 + 190 410 200 400 240 430 270 440 320 500 390 570

0-14 6,100 5,800 5,900 5,600 5,800 5,400 5,700 5,300 5,400 5,000 5,100 4,800

15-39 7,000 7,500 7,100 7,400 6,900 7,200 6,900 6,900 6,800 6,700 6,500 6,300

40-64 7,000 7,200 7,300 7,700 7,200 7,800 6,800 7,500 6,300 7,200 6,300 7,000

20-64 12,000 12,900 12,500 13,400 12,500 13,400 12,100 13,100 11,500 12,400 11,200 11,90

0 Age

Gro

up

65+ 2,400 3,100 2,700 3,200 3,200 3,700 3,800 4,200 4,300 4,800 4,700 5,400

Total 22,400 23,500 22,900 23,900 23,100 24,000 23,000 23,900 22,900 23,800 22,500 23,40

0

Table 4: Age and Sex of the Usually Resident Population Projection for the Gisborne District 2006-2031

2.2.1 Aging Population

The population of the Gisborne District is expected to be older in the future. In 2011 the projected usually resident population aged 65 years or more is 5,900. By 2031 the projected number is 10,050. This is an increase of 70%. In terms of proportions of the population, in 2011 the population aged over 65 years represents 13% of the population. This increases to 22% by 2031.

The population aged 85 years or more is projected to increase by 60% from 600 in 2011 to 960 in 2031.

Figure 6: Age and Sex of the Usually Resident Population Projection for the Gisborne District 2011


Figure 7: Age and Sex of the Usually Resident Population Projection for the Gisborne District 2031

2.2.2 Youth

Gisborne District is projected to have fewer children and youth in the future. The population aged less than 20 years is projected to decrease by 15% from 15,050 in 2011 to 12,700 in 2031. In terms of proportions of the population, the population aged less than 20 years declines from 32% in 2011 to 28% by 2031.

The population aged less than 15 years is projected to decrease by 14% from 11,500 in 2011 to 9,900 in 2031.

2.2.3 Working Age Population

The working age population is also expected to decline in absolute terms and as a proportion of the usually resident population. In 2011 the projected population between 20 and 64 years (inclusive) is 25,900. This decreases by 11% to 23,100 in 2031. As a proportion, this age group declines from 55% to 50% of the population.

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

0-19 Years 20-64 Years 65+ Years

Age Group

Usua

lly R

esid

ent P

opul

atio

n

20112031

Figure 8: Age Groups of the Usually Resident Population Projection for the Gisborne District 2011 and 2031

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2.3 Households

2.3.1 Explanation of Projections

‘Household’ projections are about the living arrangements of the usually resident population. One household is defined as one person usually living alone, or two or more people usually living together and sharing facilities (e.g. eating facilities, cooking facilities, bathroom and toilet facilities and a living area) in a private dwelling.

Household projections exclude people living in non-private dwellings, unoccupied dwellings and dwellings which are not the usual residence of people (e.g. holiday homes and second homes). Because households are defined as discrete units, the fluidity of living arrangements, where people are associated with more than one household for study, work or shared-care purposes is not addressed. Rather, the projections are intended to reflect the household where people usually live.

Households should not be confused with building activity or dwelling numbers. However they may provide some assistance for considering trends in building activity and dwelling numbers.

2.3.2 Number of Households and Average Household Size in the Gisborne District

The number of households in the Gisborne District is projected to increase by 2,400 households or 14% between 2006 and 2031; from 16,600 in 2006 to 19,000 in 2031. This represents an average increase of 96 households per year. Growth is fastest at the beginning of the period and slows each year. The increase in the number of households is primarily due to the projected decrease in the average household size.

The average household size is projected to decrease from 2.7 persons per household in 2006 to 2.4 persons per household in 2031. This reflects an increasing proportion of one-person households and a decrease in the average size of family households. These trends, in turn, are largely driven by the ageing of the population.

Year

2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031

Average Annual Change

Number of Households 16,600 17,400 18,000 18,500 18,800 19,000 Average Annual Change 5 year periods

160 120 100 60 40 96

Average Household Size 2.7 2.6 2.6 2.5 2.4 2.4

Table 5: Number of Households and Average Household Size Projection for the Gisborne District 2006-2031


2.3.3 Number of Households in the Gisborne Urban Area and Rest of the District

The number of households in the Gisborne Urban Area increases at an average rate of 57 households per year from 12,141 in 2006 to 14,791 in 2051. The number of households in the Rest of the District is projected to increase at an average rate of 11 households per year from 4,459 in 2006 to 4,972 in 2051.

Year

2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041 2046 2051

Average Annual Change

Households Gisborne Urban Area 12,141 12,820 13,314 13,737 14,014 14,220 14,218 14,341 14,583 14,791

Ave. Annual Change 5 year periods 136 99 85 55 41 0 25 48 42

57

Households Rest of the District 4,459 4,580 4,686 4,763 4,786 4,780 4,784 4,810 4,897 4,972

Ave. Annual Change 5 year periods 24 21 15 5 -1 1 5 17 15

11

Table 6: Household Projections for the Gisborne Urban Area and Rest of District 2006-2051

0

2,0004,000

6,000

8,000

10,00012,000

14,000

16,000

2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041 2046 2051

Year

Num

ber o

f Hou

seho

lds

HouseholdsGisborneUrban Area

HouseholdsRest of theDistrict

Figure 9: Household Projections for the Gisborne Urban Area and Rest of District 2006-2051

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2.3.4 Number of Households by Locality

At the locality level, the projected average increase in households per year is 2.56 in the Gisborne Urban Area and 1.14 in the Rest of the District. Household growth in the Gisborne Urban Area is not projected to be spread evenly. The fastest growing localities are projected to be the Taruheru Block encompassing Makaraka A and Riverdale A localities (combined 13 households per year) Mangapapa (9 households per year), Whataupoko (7 households per year), Te Hapara (6 households per year) Wainui (5 households per year) and Gisborne Central (4 households per year).

Year

2,006 2,011 2,016 2,021 2,026 2,031 2,036 2,041 2,046 2,051

Gisborne Airport (A) 912 915 917 919 921 922 922 922 923 924

Gisborne Airport (B) 77 86 92 97 101 103 103 105 108 110

Gisborne Airport (C) 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10

Gisborne Central 1,341 1,387 1,422 1,451 1,470 1,484 1,484 1,492 1,509 1,523

Kaiti North 768 776 781 786 789 791 791 792 795 797

Kaiti South 974 1,000 1,018 1,034 1,045 1,052 1,052 1,057 1,066 1,074

Makaraka (A) 27 103 159 206 237 260 260 274 301 324

Makaraka (B) 90 105 116 126 132 137 137 139 145 149

Makaraka (D) 157 180 197 212 221 229 228 233 241 248

Makaraka (C) 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2

Makaraka (E) 109 128 142 154 161 167 167 171 177 183

Mangapapa 1,616 1,733 1,818 1,890 1,938 1,973 1,973 1,994 2,035 2,071

Matokitoki (A) 79 104 122 137 147 155 155 159 168 175

Matokitoki (B) 93 108 119 129 135 140 140 142 148 152

Outer Kaiti 738 752 762 771 777 781 781 783 788 793

Riverdale (A) 266 337 388 432 461 482 482 495 520 542

Riverdale (B) 329 331 332 333 333 334 334 334 335 335

Riverdale (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6

Tamarau 724 729 732 735 737 738 738 739 741 742

Te Hapara 1,730 1,801 1,854 1,898 1,928 1,950 1,949 1,962 1,988 2,010

Tiniroto (A) 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3

Wainui 595 654 697 734 758 776 776 786 807 825

Whataupoko 1,496 1,571 1,626 1,673 1,704 1,726 1,726 1,740 1,767 1,790

Gisborne Urban Area 12,141 12,820 13,314 13,737 14,014 14,220 14,218 14,341 14,582 14,790

East Cape 967 993 1,016 1,032 1,037 1,036 1,037 1,043 1,061 1,078

Manutuke 226 232 237 241 242 242 242 243 248 252

Patutahi 131 131 131 131 131 131 131 131 131 131


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Year

2,006 2,011 2,016 2,021 2,026 2,031 2,036 2,041 2,046 2,051

Ruatoria 249 256 262 266 267 267 267 269 274 278

Tarndale-Raukora 620 636 651 662 665 664 665 668 680 691

Te Karaka 189 194 198 201 202 202 202 203 207 210

Tiniroto (Remainder) 829 851 871 885 889 888 889 894 910 924

Tokomaru Bay 179 183 188 191 192 191 192 193 196 199

Tolaga Bay 320 329 336 342 343 343 343 345 351 357

Wharekaka 751 771 789 802 806 805 806 810 825 837

Rest of District 4,459 4,580 4,686 4,763 4,786 4,780 4,784 4,810 4,897 4,972

TOTAL GISBORNE DISTRICT 16,600 17,400 18,000 18,500 18,800 19,000 19,002 19,152 19,480 19,763

Table 7: Household Projection for Localities 2006-2051

2.4 GFA Non-Residential Activities

The total Gross Floor Area (GFA) of Non-Residential Activities in the Gisborne District is projected to increase from around 990,000m2 (0.99 square kilometers) to remain at around 1,040,000m2 (1.04 square kilometers). Note that this does not include buildings associated with primary activities such as farming and minor non-residential activities carried out in association with residential activities (e.g. ‘home occupations). It is also noted that some of this increase is likely to be accommodated in existing vacant buildings. For example, the Central Business District is estimated to contain at least 28,000m2 of vacant buildings as at February 2011. This alone could accommodate about half of the overall increase.

Year

2011 Base 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041 2046 2051

Difference 2011-2051

Community Infrast. 113,486 113,974 113,735 113,007 111,074 110,352 110,485 111,501 112,237 -1,249

Education 149,157 142,773 135,292 127,851 125,664 124,848 124,997 126,147 126,980 -22,177

Health & Comm. Serv. 78,329 76,128 73,966 71,887 70,658 70,199 70,283 70,929 71,398 -6,931

Residential Services 11,646 12,962 15,365 17,711 20,915 23,871 26,112 27,386 28,723 17,077

Visitor Accomm. 37,243 38,841 40,542 42,500 41,773 41,502 41,552 41,934 42,211 4,968

Rest., Bars & Cafes 33,794 35,244 36,788 38,565 37,905 37,659 37,704 38,051 38,302 4,508

Retail 134,505 136,456 139,294 143,333 140,882 139,967 140,135 141,424 142,357 7,852

Commercial (Other) 97,860 99,475 102,131 106,206 104,390 103,711 103,836 104,791 105,483 7,622


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Year

2011 Base 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041

Difference 2046 2051 2011-2051

Warehousing 16,119 16,781 17,562 18,503 18,186 18,068 18,090 18,256 18,377 2,258

Heavy Industry 91,926 103,704 108,154 113,523 111,718 111,044 111,168 112,117 112,804 20,878

Other Ind.& Servicing 226,576 232,467 240,650 251,624 247,321 245,714 246,008 248,272 249,910 23,334

TOTAL 990,641 1,008,805 1,023,478 1,044,709 1,030,488 1,026,934 1,030,369 1,040,809 1,048,781

Table 8: GFA of Non-Residential Activities Projection for the Gisborne District 2011-2051

0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

2011Base

2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041 2046 2051

Year

GFA

Non

Res

iden

tial A

ctiv

ities

(s

quar

e m

eter

s)

Figure 10: GFA of Non-Residential Activities Projection for the Gisborne District 2011-2051

The greatest increases in GFA are projected to occur for Other Industry and Servicing (increase of 23,000m2 between 2011 and 2051), Residential Services (increase of 17,000 m2 between 2011 and 2051) and Heavy Industry (increase of 21,000 m2 between 2011 and 2051). The growth in the GFA for Other Industry and Servicing and Heavy Industry are a result of the assumed relationship between the GFA and projected increases in employment in the related industries; in particular additional employment in wood processing and forestry and logging. The growth in GFA is for Residential Services is due to its assumed relationship to the ageing of the population.

Other activity categories that are expected to occupy more floor area in 2051 than 2011 are Retail and Commercial (Other) (each around 8,000m2), Visitor Accommodation (5,000m2), Restaurants Bars and Cafés (5,000m2) and Warehousing (2,000m2). These projections are a result of the assumed relationship between the GFA and projected increases in employment in the related industries.

However the following activity categories are expected to occupy less floor area in 2051 than 2011: Education (-22,000m2), Health and Community Services (-7,000m2) and Community Infrastructure (-1,000m2). The GFA projection for Education is driven primarily by the demographics of the district and the decline in school-age children.


The decline in GFA for Health and Community Services is due to the assumed relationship between the GFA and a projected decline in employment in this industry. The decline in employment, in turn, is assumed to be driven by decline in the working-age population and efficiency gains.2

Tables showing the anticipated change in GFA by locality and industry-type are attached as Appendix A. As stated in the introduction, particular caution should be when using detailed projections. At such a detailed geographic level, and over such a long period of time, the limitations in the base data and assumptions are particularly apparent. However they do provide some indication of how district-wide changes could impact on local areas.

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

Community

Infra

st.

Educ

ation

Health &

Com

m. Serv.

Resid

ential S

ervices

Visitor A

ccomm

.

Rest.

, Bars

& Cafes

Reta

il

Commercial (O

ther)

Wareho

using

Heavy In

dustry

Other In

d.& Se

rvicing

Activity

GF

A (

sq

ua

re m

ete

rs)

2011 Base

2016

2021

2026

2031

2036

2041

2046

2051

Figure 10: GFA on Non-Residential Activities by Activity-type 2011-2051

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2 Gisborne District Environment-Economy Model Business as Usual Scenario, Market Economics, May 2007.


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3. Methodology and Sources

3.1 Usually Resident Population The projection of usually resident population for the Gisborne District 2006-2031 was taken directly from Statistics New Zealand’s Subnational Population Projection for the Gisborne District (2006 base, updated February 2010, medium series). The remainder of the projection period (2031-2051) extends beyond the horizon of the Statistics New Zealand projections and was developed assuming (refer to table 2):

a) A birth rate per thousand population of 1.46 more than that for New Zealand, which is consistent with current trends.

b) A death rate per thousand population of 1.41 higher than that for New Zealand, which is consistent with current trends.

c) Due to a decline in the proportion of young adults, net migration loss would be reduced and migration would be neutral by 2046.

Year Births (Live) - 5 years ended

30 June

Deaths - 5 years ended

30 June

Natural Increase - 5 years ended

30 June

Net Migration - 5 years ended 30

June

Population at 30 June

Median Age (Years) at 30

June

2006 - - - - 46000 34.6

2011 3900 2000 1900 -1000 46900 35.6

2016 3700 2000 1700 -1500 47100 36.5

2021 3500 2100 1400 -1500 47000 37.6

2026 3300 2200 1100 -1500 46700 38.9

2031 3100 2300 800 -1500 45900 40.6

Table 9: Statistics New Zealand Subnational Population Projection for the Gisborne District with Projected Population Characteristics (2006 base, medium projection, updated February 2010).

Year Assumed Birth Rate per 1000

Births (Live) - 5 years ended 30

June

Assumed Death Rate

per 1000

Deaths - 5 years ended

30 June

Natural Increase - 5 years ended

30 June

Net Migration -

5 years ended 30

June

Population at 30 June

2031 45900

2036 13.39 3100 10.33 2400 700 -1000 45600

2041 13.29 3000 10.85 2500 600 -500 45700

2046 13.14 3000 11.28 2600 400 0 46000

2051 12.90 2900 11.56 2600 300 0 46400

Table 10: Assumed Population Characteristics 2036-2051

The population projection for the Gisborne Urban Area for the period 2006-2031 was developed by compiling Statistics New Zealand Subnational Population Projection by Area Unit 2006-2031 (2006 base, updated February 2010, medium series) for thirteen area units within the Gisborne


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District. The extent of these area units closely corresponds to the boundary of the Gisborne Urban Area used in this report (refer to Section 1 - Introduction).

The projection for the Rest of the District for this period was compiled from Statistics New Zealand projections for the other ten area units within the Gisborne District.

The projections for the Gisborne Urban Area and Rest of the District for the remainder of the period (2031-2051) were developed by rationing the change in population at the District level on a pro-rata basis to the Gisborne Urban Area and the Rest of the District.

Year

Statistics New Zealand Area Unit 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031

544400 Gisborne Airport 2,850 2,830 2,820 2,810 2,790 2,760

544600 Gisborne Central 3,220 3,200 3,200 3,180 3,140 3,080

544701 Kaiti North 2,100 2,080 2,050 2,020 1,970 1,920

544801 Kaiti South 2,950 3,030 3,090 3,130 3,150 3,140

544200 Mangapapa 4,390 4,450 4,470 4,460 4,430 4,380

543901 Makaraka 1,070 1,210 1,280 1,340 1,400 1,440

543902 Matokitoki 480 550 570 590 600 610

544702 Outer Kaiti 2,720 2,830 2,810 2,780 2,720 2,630

544900 Riverdale 1,660 2,010 2,090 2,150 2,200 2,240

544802 Tamarau 2,400 2,410 2,430 2,410 2,360 2,280

544300 Te Hapara 4,420 4,470 4,430 4,370 4,300 4,210

543903 Wainui 1,550 1,630 1,720 1,790 1,860 1,920

Gisb

orne

Urb

an A

rea

544500 Whataupoko 3,790 3,840 3,850 3,840 3,810 3,750

Gisborne Urban Area 33,600 34,500 34,800 34,900 34,700 34,400

543301 East Cape 2,800 2,780 2,750 2,710 2,650 2,570

544003 Manutuke 620 610 590 570 550 530

543800 Patutahi 390 400 410 410 400 400

543601 Tarndale-Rakauroa 1,700 1,710 1,700 1,670 1,640 1,580

543602 Te Karaka 570 570 560 550 540 520

544002 Tiniroto 2,180 2,230 2,240 2,230 2,200 2,160

543303 Tokomaru Bay 460 440 420 400 390 380

544004 Tolaga Bay 860 860 850 830 800 770

543302 Ruatoria 790 760 760 760 760 750

Rest

of D

istric

t

544001 Wharekaka 1,970 1,980 1,970 1,960 1,930 1,890

Total Rest of District 12,300 12,300 12,300 12,100 11,900 11,600

Total District 46,000 46,900 47,100 47,000 46,700 45,900

Table 11: Statistics New Zealand Subnational Population Projection for the Gisborne District by Area Unit 2006-2031 (2006 base, medium series, updated February 2010)


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3.2 Age and Sex of the Population

The projections for the age and sex of the population are taken directly from Statistics New Zealand Subnational Population Projections by Age and Sex 2006-2031 (2006 base, updated February 2010, medium series).

3.3 Households

The projections of the number of households and average household sizes in the Gisborne District are taken directly from Statistics New Zealand Subnational Household Projections (2006 base, updated December 2010, medium series). Statistics New Zealand, in turn, derived the projections from the population projections using a ‘propensity’ method, which multiplies population by assumed living arrangement rates for each age-sex group. Further information is available in the Statistics New Zealand website.

The household projections for the Gisborne Urban Area and Rest of the District from 2006 to 2031 were derived by apportioning the total household numbers for the Gisborne District pro-rata by population.

Year

2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031

Population Gisborne District 45,940 46,880 47,060 46,960 46,590 45,910

Households Gisborne District 16,600 17,400 18,000 18,500 18,800 19,000

Population 33,600 34,540 34,810 34,870 34,730 34,360

% of District Pop.

Assumed % District Households

73.1% 73.7% 74.0% 74.3% 74.5% 74.8%

Gisb

orne

Urb

an A

rea

Households 12,141 12,820 13,314 13,737 14,014 14,220

Population 12,340 12,340 12,250 12,090 11,860 11,550

% of District Pop.

Assumed % District Households

26.9% 26.3% 26.0% 25.7% 25.5% 25.2%

Rest

of D

istric

t

Households 4,459 4,580 4,686 4,763 4,786 4,780

Table 12: Assumed Proportions of Households in the Gisborne Urban Area and Rest of the District 2006-2031


n-183196 Page 16 of 40

The projections were then extended to 2051. For the period 2031-2051 it was assumed that 98% of the population live in private dwellings and that the average household size would continue to decline due to the aging of the population, but at a slower rate, reducing from 2.37 in 2031to 2.3 by 2051.

Year

2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031

Population Gisborne District 46000 46900 47100 47000 46700 45900

Stats NZ Household Projection 16,600 17,400 18,000 18,500 18,800 19,000

Stats NZ Average Household Size 2.7 2.6 2.6 2.5 2.4 2.4

% of Pop in Private Dwellings 97.43% 96.46% 99.36% 98.40% 96.62% 99.35%

Average % of Pop in Private Dwellings 98%

Table 13: Assumed Percentage of Population Living in Private Dwellings 2006-2031

Year

2031 2036 2041 2046 2051

Population 34,400 34,100 34,200 34,500 34,700

Assumed % Pop. in Private Dwellings 98% 98% 98% 98% 98%

Pop. in Private Dwellings 33,673 33,447 33,487 33,796 34,019

Assumed Ave. Household Size 2.37 2.35 2.34 2.32 2.30

Gisb

orne

Urb

an A

rea

Households 14,220 14,218 14,341 14,583 14,791

Population 11,550 11,500 11,500 11,600 11,700

Assumed % Pop. in Private Dwellings 98% 98% 98% 98% 98%

Pop. in Private Dwellings 11319 11243 11256 11360 11435

Assumed Ave. Household Size 2.37 2.35 2.34 2.32 2.30

Rest

of D

istric

t

Households 4,780 4,784 4,810 4,897 4,972

Table 14: Household Projections Gisborne Urban Area and Rest of the District 2031-2051

For the locality projections, first an estimate was made of the number of households in each locality in 2006. This was prepared by adjusting the 2006 census night household counts upwards so that the total number of households matched those projected for the Gisborne Urban Area and the Rest of the District. It is noted that the census night counts are only those households counted on the night that the actual number of households is higher.

The change in household numbers in the Gisborne Urban Area and Rest of the District was then allocated to localities with consideration of known development areas and past development trends. It was assumed, consistent with past trends, that 46% of the growth would be ‘infill’ development, 40% would occur in ‘greenfield’ areas, and 14% would occur in peri-urban areas.


n-183196 Page 17 of 40

Stats NZ 2006 Census

Household Count Adjusted 2006 Household

Estimate

Gisborne Airport (A) 912

Gisborne Airport (B) Industrial 77

Gisborne Airport (C) Airport 942 10

Gisborne Central 1,272 1,341

Kaiti North 729 768

Kaiti South 924 974

Makaraka (A) Taruheru Block 27

Makaraka (B) Rural Residential 90

Makaraka (C) Makaraka 157

Makaraka (D) Rural Industrial 2

Makaraka (E) Remainder 369 109

Mangapapa 1,533 1,616

Matokitoki (A) 79

Matokitoki (B) 162 93

Outer Kaiti 702 738

Riverdale (A) Taruheru Block 266

Riverdale (B) Riverdale 329

Riverdale (C) Hospital 570 6

Tamarau 687 724

Te Hapara 1,641 1,730

Tiniroto (A) NA 3

Wainui 564 595

Loca

lity

Gisb

orne

Urb

an A

rea

Whataupoko 1,419 1,496

Gisborne Urban Area 11,514 12,141

East Cape 861 967

Manutuke 201 226

Patutahi 117 131

Ruatoria 222 249

Tarndale-Raukora 552 620

Te Karaka 168 189

Tiniroto (Remainder) 738 829

Tokomaru Bay 159 179

Tolaga Bay 285 320

Loca

lity

Rest

of D

istric

t

Wharekaka 669 751

Rest of District 3,972 4,459

Table 15: Household Estimates by Locality 2006


n-183196 Page 18 of 40

3.4 GFA of Non-Residential Activities

The Gross Floor Area (GFA) projections for non-residential activities were determined by first estimating a base set of data for 2011, which was compiled from information in the District Land Valuation Register. The register records GFA and activity categories for rates assessment numbers in the Gisborne District. The results are indicative only due to the limitations of the data. For example, the activity categories differ from the typology used in the projections, and therefore assumptions were made to align the register activity categories with the projection categories. Furthermore each assessment number only has one register category, whereas there may be several actual uses on the site. Vacant buildings were also not easy to determine from the data. A visual audit was made of activity categories in the central business district. This allowed the GFA for assessment numbers with multiple activities to be estimated in this area.

Growth rates were then assumed for each type of activity and applied to the Gisborne District, Gisborne Urban Area and Rest of District base data. The assumed growth rates are shown in tables 16 to 18 below. For the first fifteen years of the projections many of the growth rates are assumed to align with the growth rates of Full Time Employment (FTE’s) and/or Gross Regional Product (GRP) for various industries, as determined by the Gisborne Environment Economy Model (GEEM). Further information about this Model can be found in the report ‘Gisborne District Environment-Economy Model, Business as Usual Scenario’ by Market Economics (May 2007).

Finally, an adjustment was made to the GFA in Heavy Industry to reflect the possible construction of a large timber mill. It is noted that the Gisborne Environment Economy Model projects significant growth in the Wood Product Manufacturing industry between 2006 and 2011 with the construction of a new timber mill. However this has not yet eventuated and, for these projections, is assumed to happen in the 2011 to 2016 period.

The change in floor area was then assigned to localities within the Gisborne Urban Area and Rest of the District.

Year

5- year Growth Rates

2011-2016

2016-2021

2021-2026

2026-2031

2031-2036

2036-2041

2041-2046

2046-2051

Rate 4.29% 4.38% 4.83% -1.71% -0.65% 0.12% 0.92% 0.66%

Visitor Accomm.

Basis for rate

5-year growth rate from the GEEM for FTE's in the Accomm. Restaurants and Bars Industry in the Gisborne District

5-year growth rate for usual resident population in the Gisborne District from the Gisborne District Council Projections

Rate 1.65% 2.67% 3.99% -1.71% -0.65% 0.12% 0.92% 0.66%

Commercial (Other)

Basis for rate

Average of the 5-year growth rate from the GEEM for FTE's and GRP in all Industries in the Gisborne District


Rate 1.45% 2.08% 2.90% -1.71% -0.65% 0.12% 0.92% 0.66%

Retail

Basis for rate

Average of the 5-year growth rate from the GEEM for FTE's and GRP in Retail Trade Industry in the District



n-183196 Page 19 of 40

Year

5- year Growth Rates

2011-2016

2016-2021

2021-2026

2026-2031

2031-2036

2036-2041

2041-2046

2046-2051

Rate 4.29% 4.38% 4.83% -1.71% -0.65% 0.12% 0.92% 0.66% Bars, Restaurants and Cafes

Basis for rate

5-year growth rate from the GEEM for FTE's in the Accomm. Restaurants and Bars Industry in the Gisborne District


Rate 11.30% 18.54% 15.27% 18.09% 14.13% 9.39% 4.88% 4.88%

Residential Services

Basis for rate

5-year growth rate for population aged 70+ from Statistics New Zealand Gisborne District Population Projection, Medium Series (2006 base, updated February 2010)

5-year growth rate for population aged 70+ from Statistics New Zealand National Population Projection, medium projection (2006 base)

Rate -2.81% -2.84% -2.81% -1.71% -0.65% 0.12% 0.92% 0.66% Health and Comm. Services

Basis for rate

Average of the 5-year growth rates from the GEEM for FTE's and GRP in the Health and Community Services Industry


Rate 0.43% -0.21% -0.64% -1.71% -0.65% 0.12% 0.92% 0.66%

Comm. Infrastructure

Basis for rate


Rate 2.60% 3.52% 4.56% -1.71% -0.65% 0.12% 0.92% 0.66%

Other Industry & Servicing

Basis for rate

5-year growth rate from the GEEM for FTE's in Other Secondary Industries in the Gisborne District


Rate 4.11% 4.65% 5.36% -1.71% -0.65% 0.12% 0.92% 0.66%

Heavy Industry

Basis for rate

5-year growth rate from the GEEM for FTE's in manufacturing Industries in the Gisborne District


Rate 4.11% 4.65% 5.36% -1.71% -0.65% 0.12% 0.92% 0.66%

Warehousing

Basis for rate

5-year growth rate from the GEEM for FTE's in manufacturing Industries in the Gisborne District


Rate -4.28% -5.24% -5.50% -1.71% -0.65% 0.12% 0.92% 0.66%

Education

Basis for rate

Average of 5-year growth rate from the GEEM for FTE's and GRP in Education Industries in the District


Table 16: Assumed Growth Rates used to Project Gross Floor Area of Non-Residential Activities


n-183196 Page 20 of 40

Year

2011 Base 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041 2046 2051

5-year growth 0.43% -0.21% -0.64% -1.71% -0.65% 0.12% 0.92% 0.66%

Community Infrastructure GFA 113,486 113,974 113,735 113,007 111,074 110,352 110,485 111,501 112,237

5-year growth -4.28% -5.24% -5.50% -1.71% -0.65% 0.12% 0.92% 0.66%

Education GFA 149,157 142,773 135,292 127,851 125,664 124,848 124,997 126,147 126,980

5-year growth -2.81% -2.84% -2.81% -1.71% -0.65% 0.12% 0.92% 0.66%

Health & Comm. Services GFA 78,329 76,128 73,966 71,887 70,658 70,199 70,283 70,929 71,398

5-year growth 11.30% 18.54% 15.27% 18.09% 14.13% 9.39% 4.88% 4.88%

Residential Services GFA 11,646 12,962 15,365 17,711 20,915 23,871 26,112 27,386 28,723

5-year growth 4.29% 4.38% 4.83% -1.71% -0.65% 0.12% 0.92% 0.66%

Visitor Accomm. GFA 37,243 38,841 40,542 42,500 41,773 41,502 41,552 41,934 42,211

5-year growth 4.29% 4.38% 4.83% -1.71% -0.65% 0.12% 0.92% 0.66%

Restaurants Bars & Cafes GFA 33,794 35,244 36,788 38,565 37,905 37,659 37,704 38,051 38,302

5-year growth 1.45% 2.08% 2.90% -1.71% -0.65% 0.12% 0.92% 0.66%

Retail GFA 134,505 136,456 139,294 143,333 140,882 139,967 140,135 141,424 142,357

5-year growth 1.65% 2.67% 3.99% -1.71% -0.65% 0.12% 0.92% 0.66%

Commercial (Other) GFA 97,860 99,475 102,131 106,206 104,390 103,711 103,836 104,791 105,483

5-year growth 4.11% 4.65% 5.36% -1.71% -0.65% 0.12% 0.92% 0.66%

Warehousing GFA 16,119 16,781 17,562 18,503 18,186 18,068 18,090 18,256 18,377

5-year growth 4.11% 4.65% 5.36% -1.71% -0.65% 0.12% 0.92% 0.66%

GFA 91,926 95,704 100,154 105,523 103,718 103,044 103,168 104,117 104,804

Heavy Industry

GFA with adj. 103,704 108,154 113,523 111,718 111,044 111,168 112,117 112,804

5-year growth 2.60% 3.52% 4.56% -1.71% -0.65% 0.12% 0.92% 0.66%

Other Industry & Servicing GFA 226,576 232,467 240,650 251,624 247,321 245,714 246,008 248,272 249,910

Table 17: Growth Rates and Projected Gross Floor Area of Non-Residential Activities in the Gisborne District


n-183196 Page 21 of 40

Year

2011 Base

2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041 2046 2051

5-year growth

0.43% -0.21% -0.64% -1.71% -0.65% 0.12% 0.92% 0.66% Community Infrastructure GFA 67,530 67,820 67,678 67,245 66,095 65,665 65,744 66,349 66,787

5-year growth

-4.28% -5.24% -5.50% -1.71% -0.65% 0.12% 0.92% 0.66%

Education GFA 112,807 107,979 102,321 96,693 95,040 94,422 94,535 95,405 96,035

5-year growth

-2.81% -2.84% -2.81% -1.71% -0.65% 0.12% 0.92% 0.66% Health & Comm. Services GFA 73,968 71,889 69,848 67,885 66,724 66,290 66,370 66,980 67,422

5-year growth

11.30% 18.54% 15.27% 18.09% 14.13% 9.39% 4.88% 4.88% Residential Services GFA 11,646 12,962 15,365 17,711 20,915 23,871 26,112 27,386 28,723

5-year growth

4.29% 4.38% 4.83% -1.71% -0.65% 0.12% 0.92% 0.66% Visitor Accomm. GFA 30,508 31,817 33,211 34,815 34,219 33,997 34,038 34,351 34,578

5-year growth

4.29% 4.38% 4.83% -1.71% -0.65% 0.12% 0.92% 0.66% Restaurants Bars & Cafes GFA 29,564 30,832 32,182 33,737 33,160 32,944 32,984 33,287 33,507

5-year growth

1.45% 2.08% 2.90% -1.71% -0.65% 0.12% 0.92% 0.66%

Retail GFA 122,803 124,584 127,175 130,863 128,626 127,790 127,943 129,120 129,972

5-year growth

1.65% 2.67% 3.99% -1.71% -0.65% 0.12% 0.92% 0.66% Commercial (Other) GFA 93,761 95,309 97,853 101,758 100,018 99,367 99,487 100,402 101,065

5-year growth

4.11% 4.65% 5.36% -1.71% -0.65% 0.12% 0.92% 0.66%

Warehousing GFA 13,280 13,826 14,469 15,245 14,984 14,887 14,905 15,042 15,141

5-year growth

4.11% 4.65% 5.36% -1.71% -0.65% 0.12% 0.92% 0.66%

GFA 88,760 92,408 96,705 101,888 100,146 99,495 99,615 100,531 101,195

Heavy Industry

GFA with adj.

100,408 104,705 109,888 108,146 107,495 107,615 108,531 109,195

5-year growth

2.60% 3.52% 4.56% -1.71% -0.65% 0.12% 0.92% 0.66% Other Industry & Servicing GFA 208,458 213,878 221,406 231,502 227,544 226,065 226,336 228,418 229,926

Table 18: Growth Rates and Projected Gross Floor Area of Non-Residential Activities in the Gisborne Urban Area


n-183196 Page 22 of 40

Year

2011 Base 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041 2046 2051

5-year growth 0.43% -0.21% -0.64% -1.71% -0.65% 0.12% 0.92% 0.66%

Community Infrastructure GFA 45,956 46,154 46,057 45,762 44,979 44,687 44,741 45,152 45,450

5-year growth -4.28% -5.24% -5.50% -1.71% -0.65% 0.12% 0.92% 0.66%

Education GFA 36,350 34,794 32,971 31,158 30,625 30,426 30,462 30,743 30,945

5-year growth -2.81% -2.84% -2.81% -1.71% -0.65% 0.12% 0.92% 0.66%

Health & Comm. Services GFA 4,361 4,238 4,118 4,002 3,934 3,908 3,913 3,949 3,975

5-year growth 11.30% 18.54% 15.27% 18.09% 14.13% 9.39% 4.88% 4.88%

Residential Services GFA 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

5-year growth 4.29% 4.38% 4.83% -1.71% -0.65% 0.12% 0.92% 0.66%

Visitor Accomm. GFA 6,735 7,024 7,331 7,685 7,554 7,505 7,514 7,583 7,633

5-year growth 4.29% 4.38% 4.83% -1.71% -0.65% 0.12% 0.92% 0.66%

Restaurants Bars & Cafes GFA 4,230 4,412 4,605 4,828 4,745 4,714 4,720 4,763 4,795

5-year growth 1.45% 2.08% 2.90% -1.71% -0.65% 0.12% 0.92% 0.66%

Retail GFA 11,702 11,872 12,119 12,470 12,257 12,177 12,192 12,304 12,385

5-year growth 1.65% 2.67% 3.99% -1.71% -0.65% 0.12% 0.92% 0.66%

Commercial (Other) GFA 4,099 4,166 4,278 4,448 4,372 4,344 4,349 4,389 4,418

5-year growth 4.11% 4.65% 5.36% -1.71% -0.65% 0.12% 0.92% 0.66%

Warehousing GFA 2,838 2,955 3,092 3,258 3,202 3,182 3,185 3,215 3,236

5-year growth 4.11% 4.65% 5.36% -1.71% -0.65% 0.12% 0.92% 0.66%

Heavy Industry GFA 3,166 3,296 3,449 3,634 3,572 3,549 3,553 3,586 3,610

5-year growth 2.60% 3.52% 4.56% -1.71% -0.65% 0.12% 0.92% 0.66%

Other Industry & Servicing GFA 18,119 18,590 19,244 20,122 19,777 19,649 19,673 19,853 19,985

Table 19: Growth Rates and Projected Gross Floor Area of Non-Residential Activities in the Rest of the District


n-183196 Page 23 of 40

Appendix A - GFA of Non-Residential Activities Tables Year

2011 Base 2,016 2,021 2,026 2,031 2,036 2,041 2,046 2,051

Community Infrastructure 3,350 3,364 3,357 3,336 3,279 3,257 3,261 3,291 3,313

Education 5,389 5,158 4,888 4,619 4,540 4,511 4,516 4,558 4,588

Health & Comm. Services 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

Residential Services 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Visitor Accomm. 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3

Restaurants, Bars & Cafes 26 51 79 110 98 94 95 101 105

Retail 104 104 104 104 104 104 104 104 104

Commercial (Other) 30 107 234 430 343 310 316 362 395

Warehousing 52 52 52 52 52 52 52 52 52

Heavy Industry 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Other Ind. & Servicing 7,364 7,635 8,011 8,516 8,318 8,244 8,258 8,362 8,437

Non

-Res

iden

tial A

ctiv

ity C

ateg

ory

TOTAL 16,319 16,476 16,730 17,171 16,738 16,576 16,606 16,834 16,998

Table A1: GFA of Non-Residential Activities Projection for Gisborne Airport (A) 2011-2051

Year

2011 Base 2,016 2,021 2,026 2,031 2,036 2,041 2,046 2,051


Education 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0



Visitor Accomm. 8 74 144 224 194 183 185 201 212


Retail 324 414 543 728 616 574 582 641 684

Commercial (Other) 1,457 1,534 1,662 1,857 1,770 1,737 1,743 1,789 1,822

Warehousing 6,316 6,453 6,614 6,807 6,742 6,718 6,722 6,757 6,782

Heavy Industry 30,900 33,818 34,678 35,715 35,366 35,236 35,260 35,443 35,576


Non

-Res

iden

tial A

ctiv

ity C

ateg

ory

TOTAL 103,330 107,780 110,693 114,458 112,935 112,366 112,470 113,272 113,852

Table A2: GFA of Non-Residential Activities Projection for Gisborne Airport (B) 2011-2051


n-183196 Page 24 of 40

Year

2011 Base 2,016 2,021 2,026 2,031 2,036 2,041 2,046 2,051


Education 810 775 735 694 682 678 679 685 690



Visitor Accomm. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0


Retail 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0


Warehousing 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Heavy Industry 12,580 12,580 12,580 12,580 12,580 12,580 12,580 12,580 12,580

Other Ind. & Servicing 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Non

-Res

iden

tial A

ctiv

ity C

ateg

ory

TOTAL 15,030 15,000 14,957 14,909 14,878 14,867 14,869 14,885 14,897

Table A3: GFA of Non-Residential Activities Projection for Gisborne Airport (C) 2011-2051

Year

2011 Base 2,016 2,021 2,026 2,031 2,036 2,041 2,046 2,051


Education 35,164 33,659 31,895 30,141 29,626 29,433 29,468 29,739 29,936

Health & Comm. Services 7,064 6,865 6,670 6,483 6,372 6,331 6,338 6,397 6,439

Residential Services 950 1,147 1,508 1,860 2,340 2,784 3,120 3,311 3,512

Visitor Accomm. 16,328 17,244 18,220 19,343 18,926 18,770 18,799 19,018 19,177

Restaurants, Bars & Cafes 23,680 24,441 25,251 26,184 25,838 25,709 25,732 25,914 26,046

Retail 101,825 102,983 104,667 107,064 105,610 105,066 105,166 105,931 106,485


Warehousing 4,263 4,317 4,382 4,459 4,433 4,423 4,425 4,439 4,449

Heavy Industry 3,310 3,310 3,310 3,310 3,310 3,310 3,310 3,310 3,310


Non

-Res

iden

tial A

ctiv

ity C

ateg

ory

TOTAL 385,554 388,909 393,553 400,317 395,596 394,096 394,789 397,716 399,897

Table A4: GFA of Non-Residential Activities Projection for Gisborne Central 2011-2051


n-183196 Page 25 of 40

Year

2011 Base 2,016 2,021 2,026 2,031 2,036 2,041 2,046 2,051


Education 6,769 6,479 6,140 5,802 5,703 5,666 5,673 5,725 5,763


Residential Services 5,606 5,606 5,606 5,606 5,606 5,606 5,606 5,606 5,606

Visitor Accomm. 575 601 629 661 649 645 645 652 656


Retail 185 185 185 185 185 185 185 185 185


Warehousing 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4



Non

-Res

iden

tial A

ctiv

ity C

ateg

ory

TOTAL 14,756 14,484 14,157 13,833 13,696 13,646 13,655 13,727 13,778

Table A5: GFA of Non-Residential Activities Projection for Kaiti North 2011-2051

Year

2011 Base 2,016 2,021 2,026 2,031 2,036 2,041 2,046 2,051


Education 3,367 3,223 3,054 2,886 2,837 2,818 2,822 2,848 2,866



Visitor Accomm. 905 971 1,041 1,121 1,091 1,080 1,082 1,098 1,109

Restaurants, Bars & Cafes 819 882 950 1,027 998 988 990 1,005 1,016

Retail 3,277 3,277 3,277 3,277 3,277 3,277 3,277 3,277 3,277

Commercial (Other) 928 974 1,051 1,168 1,115 1,096 1,100 1,127 1,147

Warehousing 993 1,047 1,112 1,189 1,163 1,153 1,155 1,169 1,179



Non

-Res

iden

tial A

ctiv

ity C

ateg

ory

TOTAL 61,515 61,876 62,346 63,007 62,566 62,401 62,431 62,663 62,831

Table A6: GFA of Non-Residential Activities Projection for Kaiti South 2011-2051


n-183196 Page 26 of 40

Year

2011 Base 2,016 2,021 2,026 2,031 2,036 2,041 2,046 2,051

Community Infrastructure 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Education 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0


Residential Services 0 395 1,116 1,820 2,781 3,667 4,340 4,722 5,123

Visitor Accomm. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0


Retail 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0


Warehousing 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0



Non

-Res

iden

tial A

ctiv

ity C

ateg

ory

TOTAL 2,600 2,995 3,716 4,420 5,381 6,267 6,940 7,322 7,723

Table A7: GFA of Non-Residential Activities Projection for Makaraka (A) 2011-2051

Year

2011 Base 2,016 2,021 2,026 2,031 2,036 2,041 2,046 2,051


Education 1,637 1,567 1,485 1,403 1,379 1,370 1,372 1,384 1,394



Visitor Accomm. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0


Retail 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0


Warehousing 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0



Non

-Res

iden

tial A

ctiv

ity C

ateg

ory

TOTAL 1,637 1,567 1,485 1,403 1,379 1,370 1,372 1,384 1,394

Table A8: GFA of Non-Residential Activities Projection for Makaraka (B) 2011-2051


n-183196 Page 27 of 40

Year

2011 Base 2,016 2,021 2,026 2,031 2,036 2,041 2,046 2,051


Education 830 794 753 711 699 695 696 702 707



Visitor Accomm. 1,160 1,199 1,241 1,289 1,271 1,264 1,266 1,275 1,282


Retail 2,829 2,918 3,047 3,232 3,120 3,078 3,086 3,145 3,187


Warehousing 1,411 1,439 1,471 1,510 1,497 1,492 1,493 1,499 1,504

Heavy Industry 1,600 2,330 2,544 2,804 2,717 2,684 2,690 2,736 2,769


Non

-Res

iden

tial A

ctiv

ity C

ateg

ory

TOTAL 20,282 21,835 23,148 24,886 24,046 23,732 23,790 24,231 24,551

Table A9: GFA of Non-Residential Activities Projection for Makarka (C) 2011-2051

Year

2011 Base 2,016 2,021 2,026 2,031 2,036 2,041 2,046 2,051


Education 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0



Visitor Accomm. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0


Retail 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0


Warehousing 0 136 297 491 426 402 406 440 465


Other Ind. & Servicing 0 1,355 3,237 5,761 4,771 4,402 4,470 4,990 5,367

Non

-Res

iden

tial A

ctiv

ity C

ateg

ory

TOTAL 0 1,491 3,534 6,252 5,197 4,803 4,876 5,430 5,832

Table A10: GFA of Non-Residential Activities Projection for Makaraka (D) 2011-2051


n-183196 Page 28 of 40

Year

2011 Base 2,016 2,021 2,026 2,031 2,036 2,041 2,046 2,051


Education 1,637 1,567 1,485 1,403 1,379 1,370 1,372 1,384 1,394



Visitor Accomm. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0


Retail 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0


Warehousing 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0



Non

-Res

iden

tial A

ctiv

ity C

ateg

ory

TOTAL 1,637 1,567 1,485 1,403 1,379 1,370 1,372 1,384 1,394

Table A11: GFA of Non-Residential Activities Projection for Makaraka (E) 2011-2051

Year

2011 Base 2,016 2,021 2,026 2,031 2,036 2,041 2,046 2,051


Education 2,903 2,779 2,633 2,488 2,446 2,430 2,433 2,455 2,471



Visitor Accomm. 62 102 143 192 174 167 168 178 184


Retail 2,394 2,483 2,612 2,797 2,685 2,643 2,651 2,710 2,752


Warehousing 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46



Non

-Res

iden

tial A

ctiv

ity C

ateg

ory

TOTAL 10,175 10,350 10,607 10,951 10,830 10,873 11,004 11,215 11,389

Table A12: GFA of Non-Residential Activities Projection for Mangapapa 2011-2051


n-183196 Page 29 of 40

Year

2011 Base 2,016 2,021 2,026 2,031 2,036 2,041 2,046 2,051


Education 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0



Visitor Accomm. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0


Retail 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0


Warehousing 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0



Non

-Res

iden

tial A

ctiv

ity C

ateg

ory

TOTAL 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Table A13: GFA of Non-Residential Activities Projection for Matokitoki (A) 2011-2051

Year

2011 Base 2,016 2,021 2,026 2,031 2,036 2,041 2,046 2,051


Education 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0



Visitor Accomm. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0


Retail 150 150 150 150 150 150 150 150 150


Warehousing 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0



Non

-Res

iden

tial A

ctiv

ity C

ateg

ory

TOTAL 150 150 150 150 150 150 150 150 150

Table A14: GFA of Non-Residential Activities Projection for Matokitoki (B) 2011-2051


n-183196 Page 30 of 40

Year

2011 Base 2,016 2,021 2,026 2,031 2,036 2,041 2,046 2,051


Education 8,959 8,576 8,126 7,679 7,548 7,499 7,508 7,577 7,627



Visitor Accomm. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0


Retail 170 170 170 170 170 170 170 170 170


Warehousing 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0



Non

-Res

iden

tial A

ctiv

ity C

ateg

ory

TOTAL 9,129 8,746 8,296 7,849 7,718 7,669 7,678 7,747 7,797

Table A15: GFA of Non-Residential Activities Projection for Outer Kaiti 2011-2051

Year

2011 Base 2,016 2,021 2,026 2,031 2,036 2,041 2,046 2,051


Education 10,967 10,498 9,948 9,400 9,240 9,180 9,191 9,275 9,336



Visitor Accomm. 616 655 697 745 727 721 722 731 738


Retail 1,010 1,099 1,228 1,413 1,301 1,259 1,267 1,326 1,368


Warehousing 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12



Non

-Res

iden

tial A

ctiv

ity C

ateg

ory

TOTAL 13,676 13,476 13,291 13,250 12,843 12,691 12,719 12,933 13,088

Table A16: GFA of Non-Residential Activities Projection for Riverdale (A) 2011-2051


n-183196 Page 31 of 40

Year

2011 Base 2,016 2,021 2,026 2,031 2,036 2,041 2,046 2,051


Education 3,666 3,509 3,325 3,142 3,089 3,069 3,072 3,100 3,121



Visitor Accomm. 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1


Retail 246 246 246 246 246 246 246 246 246


Warehousing 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1



Non

-Res

iden

tial A

ctiv

ity C

ateg

ory

TOTAL 9,194 9,056 8,863 8,651 8,521 8,472 8,481 8,549 8,599

Table A17: GFA of Non-Residential Activities Projection for Riverdale (B) 2011-2051

Year

2011 Base 2,016 2,021 2,026 2,031 2,036 2,041 2,046 2,051


Education 150 144 136 129 126 126 126 127 128



Visitor Accomm. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0


Retail 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0


Warehousing 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0



Non

-Res

iden

tial A

ctiv

ity C

ateg

ory

TOTAL 64,447 62,634 60,852 59,138 58,127 57,749 57,818 58,350 58,735

Table A18: GFA of Non-Residential Activities Projection for Riverdale (C) 2011-2051


n-183196 Page 32 of 40

Year

2011 Base 2,016 2,021 2,026 2,031 2,036 2,041 2,046 2,051


Education 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0



Visitor Accomm. 3,845 3,845 3,845 3,845 3,845 3,845 3,845 3,845 3,845


Retail 2,477 2,477 2,477 2,477 2,477 2,477 2,477 2,477 2,477


Warehousing 47 47 47 47 47 47 47 47 47



Non

-Res

iden

tial A

ctiv

ity C

ateg

ory

TOTAL 9,358 9,363 9,359 9,349 9,324 9,315 9,317 9,330 9,339

Table A19: GFA of Non-Residential Activities Projection for Tamarau 2011-2051

Year

2011 Base 2,016 2,021 2,026 2,031 2,036 2,041 2,046 2,051


Education 28,410 27,194 25,769 24,352 23,935 23,780 23,808 24,027 24,186


Residential Services 5,090 5,222 5,462 5,697 6,017 6,312 6,537 6,664 6,798

Visitor Accomm. 4,702 4,741 4,783 4,831 4,813 4,807 4,808 4,817 4,824

Restaurants, Bars & Cafes 979 1,042 1,110 1,188 1,159 1,148 1,150 1,165 1,176

Retail 3,919 4,008 4,138 4,322 4,210 4,168 4,176 4,235 4,277


Warehousing 75 102 135 173 160 155 156 163 168


Other Ind. & Servicing 332 603 980 1,484 1,286 1,213 1,226 1,330 1,406

Non

-Res

iden

tial A

ctiv

ity C

ateg

ory

TOTAL 48,255 47,700 47,240 47,050 46,438 46,385 46,673 47,291 47,780

Table A20: GFA of Non-Residential Activities Projection for Te Hapara (A) 2011-2051


n-183196 Page 33 of 40

Year

2011 Base 2,016 2,021 2,026 2,031 2,036 2,041 2,046 2,051


Education 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0



Visitor Accomm. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0


Retail 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0


Warehousing 0 109 238 393 341 321 325 352 372

Heavy Industry 39,030 47,030 50,253 54,140 52,834 52,345 52,435 53,122 53,620


Non

-Res

iden

tial A

ctiv

ity C

ateg

ory

TOTAL 40,460 49,382 53,863 59,420 57,467 56,738 56,871 57,899 58,642

Table A21: GFA of Non-Residential Activities Projection for Tiniroto (A) 2011-2051

Year

2011 Base 2,016 2,021 2,026 2,031 2,036 2,041 2,046 2,051


Education 1,380 1,321 1,252 1,183 1,163 1,155 1,156 1,167 1,175



Visitor Accomm. 2,220 2,259 2,301 2,349 2,331 2,325 2,326 2,335 2,342


Retail 727 816 946 1,130 1,018 976 984 1,043 1,085


Warehousing 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0



Non

-Res

iden

tial A

ctiv

ity C

ateg

ory

TOTAL 5,627 5,834 6,146 6,548 6,495 6,563 6,689 6,865 7,013

Table A22: GFA of Non-Residential Activities Projection for Wainui 2011-2051


n-183196 Page 34 of 40

Year

2011 Base 2,016 2,021 2,026 2,031 2,036 2,041 2,046 2,051


Education 2,406 2,303 2,182 2,062 2,027 2,014 2,016 2,035 2,048



Visitor Accomm. 83 122 164 212 194 187 188 198 205


Retail 3,165 3,254 3,384 3,568 3,456 3,415 3,422 3,481 3,524


Warehousing 61 61 61 61 61 61 61 61 61

Heavy Industry 1,340 1,340 1,340 1,340 1,340 1,340 1,340 1,340 1,340


Non

-Res

iden

tial A

ctiv

ity C

ateg

ory

TOTAL 21,463 21,677 21,983 22,385 22,240 22,273 22,406 22,631 22,814

Table A23: GFA of Non-Residential Activities Projection for Whataupoko 2011-2051

Year

2011 Base 2,016 2,021 2,026 2,031 2,036 2,041 2,046 2,051


Education 8,260 7,906 7,492 7,080 6,959 6,914 6,922 6,986 7,032



Visitor Accomm. 2,491 2,598 2,712 2,843 2,794 2,776 2,779 2,805 2,823


Retail 1,012 1,026 1,048 1,078 1,060 1,053 1,054 1,064 1,071


Warehousing 558 581 608 641 630 626 627 632 637



Non

-Res

iden

tial A

ctiv

ity C

ateg

ory

TOTAL 34,316 34,184 33,947 33,726 33,149 32,934 32,973 33,277 33,496

Table A24: GFA of Non-Residential Activities Projection for East Cape 2011-2051


n-183196 Page 35 of 40

Year

2011 Base 2,016 2,021 2,026 2,031 2,036 2,041 2,046 2,051


Education 259 248 235 222 218 217 217 219 220



Visitor Accomm. 9 9 10 10 10 10 10 10 10


Retail 336 341 348 358 352 350 350 353 356


Warehousing 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7


Other Ind. & Servicing 928 953 986 1,031 1,013 1,007 1,008 1,017 1,024

Non

-Res

iden

tial A

ctiv

ity C

ateg

ory

TOTAL 5,672 5,713 5,739 5,765 5,666 5,630 5,636 5,688 5,726

Table A25: GFA of Non-Residential Activities Projection for Manutuke 2011-2051

Year

2011 Base 2,016 2,021 2,026 2,031 2,036 2,041 2,046 2,051


Education 1,060 1,015 961 909 893 887 888 896 902



Visitor Accomm. 13 14 14 15 15 14 14 15 15


Retail 498 505 516 531 522 518 519 524 527


Warehousing 1,020 1,061 1,111 1,170 1,150 1,143 1,144 1,155 1,162



Non

-Res

iden

tial A

ctiv

ity C

ateg

ory

TOTAL 5,665 5,726 5,803 5,914 5,813 5,775 5,782 5,835 5,874

Table A26: GFA of Non-Residential Activities Projection for Patutahi 2011-2051


n-183196 Page 36 of 40

Year

2011 Base 2,016 2,021 2,026 2,031 2,036 2,041 2,046 2,051


Education 10,006 9,578 9,076 8,577 8,430 8,375 8,385 8,462 8,518



Visitor Accomm. 240 250 261 274 269 267 268 270 272

Restaurants, Bars & Cafes 1,795 1,872 1,954 2,048 2,013 2,000 2,003 2,021 2,034

Retail 2,302 2,336 2,384 2,453 2,411 2,396 2,398 2,421 2,437


Warehousing 114 119 124 131 129 128 128 129 130



Non

-Res

iden

tial A

ctiv

ity C

ateg

ory

TOTAL 22,400 22,154 21,849 21,594 21,225 21,087 21,112 21,306 21,447

Table A27: GFA of Non-Residential Activities Projection for Ruatoria 2011-2051

Year

2011 Base 2,016 2,021 2,026 2,031 2,036 2,041 2,046 2,051


Education 2,368 2,267 2,148 2,030 1,995 1,982 1,984 2,003 2,016



Visitor Accomm. 684 713 744 780 767 762 763 770 775


Retail 915 929 948 975 959 952 954 962 969


Warehousing 108 112 117 123 121 121 121 122 123

Heavy Industry 0 65 142 234 203 191 194 210 222


Non

-Res

iden

tial A

ctiv

ity C

ateg

ory

TOTAL 8,522 8,596 8,675 8,797 8,620 8,553 8,565 8,659 8,726

Table A28: GFA of Non-Residential Activities Projection for Tarndale-Rakauroa 2011-2051


n-183196 Page 37 of 40

Year

2011 Base 2,016 2,021 2,026 2,031 2,036 2,041 2,046 2,051


Education 5,386 5,155 4,885 4,617 4,538 4,508 4,514 4,555 4,585



Visitor Accomm. 32 33 35 36 36 36 36 36 36


Retail 1,222 1,240 1,266 1,303 1,280 1,272 1,273 1,285 1,294


Warehousing 23 24 26 27 26 26 26 27 27



Non

-Res

iden

tial A

ctiv

ity C

ateg

ory

TOTAL 12,255 12,118 11,960 11,837 11,634 11,559 11,572 11,679 11,756

Table A29: GFA of Non-Residential Activities Projection for Te Karaka 2011-2051

Year

2011 Base 2,016 2,021 2,026 2,031 2,036 2,041 2,046 2,051


Education 1,062 1,017 963 910 895 889 890 898 904



Visitor Accomm. 991 1,034 1,079 1,131 1,112 1,105 1,106 1,116 1,124


Retail 440 447 456 469 461 458 459 463 466


Warehousing 8 9 9 10 10 9 9 10 10

Heavy Industry 3,166 3,231 3,308 3,400 3,369 3,357 3,360 3,376 3,388


Non

-Res

iden

tial A

ctiv

ity C

ateg

ory

TOTAL 14,276 14,455 14,642 14,872 14,645 14,560 14,575 14,695 14,781

Table A30: GFA of Non-Residential Activities Projection for Tiniroto (R) 2011-2051


n-183196 Page 38 of 40

Year

2011 Base 2,016 2,021 2,026 2,031 2,036 2,041 2,046 2,051


Education 1,822 1,744 1,653 1,562 1,535 1,525 1,527 1,541 1,551



Visitor Accomm. 354 370 386 404 397 395 395 399 402


Retail 2,085 2,116 2,160 2,222 2,184 2,170 2,173 2,193 2,207


Warehousing 40 42 44 46 45 45 45 45 46



Non

-Res

iden

tial A

ctiv

ity C

ateg

ory

TOTAL 10,424 10,461 10,490 10,546 10,366 10,299 10,311 10,406 10,475

Table A31: GFA of Non-Residential Activities Projection for Tokomaru Bay 2011-2051

Year

2011 Base 2,016 2,021 2,026 2,031 2,036 2,041 2,046 2,051


Education 4,540 4,346 4,118 3,891 3,825 3,800 3,805 3,840 3,865



Visitor Accomm. 1,450 1,512 1,578 1,654 1,626 1,615 1,617 1,632 1,643


Retail 1,711 1,735 1,772 1,823 1,792 1,780 1,782 1,799 1,811


Warehousing 33 34 36 38 37 37 37 37 37



Non

-Res

iden

tial A

ctiv

ity C

ateg

ory

TOTAL 16,360 16,389 16,424 16,529 16,247 16,141 16,160 16,309 16,417

Table A32: GFA of Non-Residential Activities Projection for Tolaga Bay 2011-2051


n-183196 Page 39 of 40

Year

2011 Base 2,016 2,021 2,026 2,031 2,036 2,041 2,046 2,051


Education 1,587 1,519 1,439 1,360 1,337 1,328 1,330 1,342 1,351



Visitor Accomm. 471 491 512 537 528 525 525 530 534


Retail 1,180 1,197 1,222 1,257 1,236 1,228 1,229 1,241 1,249


Warehousing 928 966 1,011 1,065 1,047 1,040 1,041 1,051 1,058



Non

-Res

iden

tial A

ctiv

ity C

ateg

ory

TOTAL 7,664 7,704 7,736 7,787 7,654 7,604 7,613 7,683 7,734

Table A33: GFA of Non-Residential Activities Projection for Wharekaka 2011-2051

population, households, gross floor area and hue ... · population, households, gross floor area...

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