Economic Update

Seamus Coffey

Actual Performance

Internal Position• Employment and the Labour Market

• Record employment (>2.3m)

• Low unemployment (<5%)

External Position•Balance of Payments and Exports

• Current account surplus (6% of GNI*)

• Strong export growth (+9% y-on-y)

Potential Risks

Internal

•The Public Finances • Public Debt (€210bn)

• Corporation Tax (€11bn)

External

• International Trade• Tariffs/Trade Disputes

• Corporation tax

•Overheating• Housing (21,000)

• Wages (+4%)

• Brexit

1.8

1.9

2.0

2.1

2.2

2.3

mill

ion

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Seasonally Adjusted

Unadjustedeconomic-incentives.blogspot.com

Source: CSO Ireland: QNHS, Table QNQ03

Total employment 2005-2019, seasonally adjusted quarterly data

Number Employed

-200

-150

-100

-50

0

50

100

000s o

f P

eople

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

economic-incentives.blogspot.com

Source:CSO Ireland: QNHS, Table QNQ03

Change in the total number of people employed

Annual Change in Employment

400

500

Pa

rt-T

ime

, 0

00

s

1,400

1,500

1,600

1,700

1,800

1,900

F

ull-

Tim

e, 000s

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Full Time (LHS) Part Time (RHS)

economic-incentives.blogspot.com

Source: Central Statistics Office

Full- and part-time employment, 2008-2019

Numbers Employed

0.0

4.0

8.0

12.0

16.0

20.0

Ireland: Unemployment Rate 1923-Source: Stuart and Gerlach (2016)

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

€m

illio

n

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

economic-incentives.blogspot.com

Source: CSO, Non-Financial Institutional Sector Accounts

Quarterly compensation of employees received, €million

Household Accounts: Employee Compensation Received

-15.0

-10.0

-5.0

0.0

5.0

10.0

%G

NI, %

GN

I*

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

National Accounts Historical Series (1970-1995)

Modified Current Account, various (1995-2018)

Source: CSO - Balance of Payments, (Historic) National Accounts

Headline and Modified Current Account Balance, 1970-1995 (%GNI), 1995-2018 (%GNI*)

Balance of Payments: Current Account

-10.0

-5.0

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

% G

NI*

Savings minus InvestmentGross Savings less Gross Fixed Capital Formation, Domesic Sectors, % GNI*

Households GovernmentForeign Corps/Redoms* Domestic Financial CorpsDomestic Non-Financial Corps Not SectorisedCurrent Account*

-20,000

-15,000

-10,000

-5,000

0

5,000

€m

illio

n

20022003

20042005

20062007

20082009

20102011

20122013

20142015

20162017

2018

economic-incentives.blogspot.com

Source: CSO - Non-Financial Institutional Sector Accounts

Four-Quarter Moving Sum of Net Lending/(Borrowing) of the Household Sector

Household Sector: Net Lending

0

50

100

150

200

€bill

ion

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Loans

Deposits

economic-incentives.blogspot.com

Source: Central Bank of Ireland, Quarterly Finanacial Accounts

Total currency and deposits assets and loan liabilities of the household sector

Household Sector: Loans and Deposits

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

€m

illio

n

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018

Entrepreneurial Income

economic-incentives.blogspot.com

Source: Central Statistics Office

Nominal entrepreneurial Income (including subsidies less taxes) from Agriculture, 2000-2017(e)

Agriculture: Entrepreneurial Income

Potential Risks

Internal

•The Public Finances • Public Debt (€210bn)

• Corporation Tax (€11bn)

External

• International Trade• Tariffs/Trade Disputes

• Corporation tax

•Overheating• Housing (21,000)

• Wages (+4%)

• Brexit