Larry M Frolich

Larry M Frolich

Population and Energy in the 21st Century: A Biological Perspective

Larry M Frolich, Ph.D.Miami Dade CollegeWolfson Campus, Natural SciencesFulbright Scholar, Ecuador, 2011www.LarryFrolich.com

Larry M Frolich

Lewis Thomas

1978

Larry M Frolich

What does the century before us hold?

World population will reach its peak

The real challenge on the other side: The dependency ratio or the lack of human capital.

Fuente: UNEP

The Death of Birth: Our Dismal Fertility Rates

Larry M Frolich

What does the century before us hold?

Petroleum production will reach its peak

The real challenge on the other side: New sources of energy or the lack of stored energy capital.

Source: Exit Mundi

Larry M Frolich

The environmental movement, based on an ecological perspective:

Does not provide us with a logical solution to the lack of human capital and the lack of stored energy capital.

They ask that we lower our use of energy…and at the same time,lower fertility rate.

But these two goals cannot go together…

Larry M Frolich

Energy and Birth Rates: A biological principle

(Melanie Moses & James Brown, 2000)

Nat

ality

/Birt

h R

ate

(BR

)

Primates

Size of individual/Energy Use

monkey

humanmetabolic

human extra-metabolic

60 kg 130 WBR = 7

30,000 kg 10,000 WBR < 2

10 kg 20 WBR = 12

Mammals

mouse

elephant

0.05 kg 0.2 WBR = 100

5000 kg 1200 WBR = 4

Larry M Frolich

Actual data from Moses & Brown (2000)

Energy and Birth Rates: A biological principle

Larry M Frolich

Birth rates go downonly when energy use goes up

Energy and Birth Rates: A biological principle

Programs and policies that lower birth rates will lead to higher energy use

(example: China)

Programs and policies that increase energyuse will lead to lower birth rates.(example: Ecuador urbano)

There is no escape from this fundamental biological principle

Symbol for energy

babies being born

Larry M Frolich

The Population Bomb

So, population, in itself, is not the root of the problem

The world ecological crisis is caused by high fertility rates in the “third world” or developing countries.

But we know that lowering birth rates leads to higher energy use, which represents a general increase in the use of resources.

If we want to use population control as a way to reduce the use of energy and resources, we

should start in the “developed world” suburbs with programs aimed at reducing the number of

“30,000 kg apes.”(for example: Palo Alto, California where Paul Ehrlich lives)

1968

Larry M Frolich

Larry M Frolich

Reverse Transfer of

Technology and

Values

Larry M Frolich

The flattening of the world, and overall human/societal development, is bringing about a reduction in birth rates world-wide. All predictions indicate that we will hit a human population peak around mid-century.

Population and Energy in the 21st Century

However, while birth rates decline, enegy use will increase. At the same

time, we will hit a peak in petroleum production during the next few

decades.

Hans Rosling on global population changes, TED

Larry M Frolich

Energy: “Big History”

Larry M Frolich

Energy: “Big History”

The composition of the atmosphere depends on a balance between the process of photosynthesis and the

process of metabolic respiration carried out by living beings.

Meganeura:• 75 cm wing-span Dragonfly• From Carboniferous Period, 300 MYA• How could it fly?

Larry M Frolich

Historia del Planeta Tierra

Energy: “Big History”

300 MYA: Meganeura; Great Coal Forests, 30% O2

100 MYA: Ability to decompoase lignin; 21% O2

4.5-4.0 BYA: Earth Forms; First Life—prokaryotic cells

2.0 BYA: Origin of Photosynthesis by Cyanobacteria--O2

into atmosphere1760: Joseph Priestley discovers O2, ,CO2

1800-present: Industrial Revolution: Humans liberate fossilized carbon deposits (“fossil fuel”) CO2

rises

Larry M Frolich

Source: Arctic Climate Impact Assessment

The “Swoosh” of CO2 and of temperature(“hockey stick curves”)

Larry M Frolich

World-wide energy sources

• Petroleum, coal and natural gas dominate, liberating carbon sequestered since the Carbiniferous Period.

• Sources that don’t liberate carbon provide 20% of the total

(CMO = Cubic Mile of Oil)

1 CMO ≈ 1.6 × 1020 joules

= 160 exajoules

≈ 4.454 × 1013 kilowatt-hours

=  44.54 petawatt-hours

Larry M Frolich

Every hour and a half, the surface of the planet absorbs enough solar energy to provide the 3 CMO’s that the total human population uses in one year

The challenge before us is to

capture, concentrate and store this energy

Larry M Frolich

Potential of Renewable Energy Sources

Larry M Frolich

National Geo energy fractions graph

Larry M Frolich

The “Swoosh” of solar and wind energy production

Since 2008, more than half of all new capacity

for energy production has been in renewable (non-carbon-liberating)

sources.

Larry M Frolich

Fuente: Sightline Daily using McKinsey and Company data

Larry M Frolich

Reverse transfer of

technology and values

Larry M Frolich

We are few with access to this power

1% of the world’s population goes to college

Larry M Frolich

Larry M Frolich

Thank You’s

 Mediaval miniature by Berthold Furtmeyer: Baum des Todes und des Lebens, 1481 (depicting both trees in one). In: Roger Cook: The Tree of Life. Image for the Cosmos. New York 1974. 44

and Propaganda

www.jsedimensions.org

www.LarryFrolich.com

Class in Management of Information Resources,PUCE-SI, Campus Virtual, Septiembre 2011