population ageing in asia-pacific: challenges and ... · (total fertility rate and life expectancy...

Population ageing

in Asia-Pacific: challenges

and opportunities

Sabine Henning, Ph.D.Chief, Sustainable Demographic Transition Section

Social Development Division

Social Expo Thailand 2019

Side event of the Department of

Older Persons in Thailand

Bangkok, 6 July 2019

ESCAP ….

… uses its convening

power to bring

countries together to

address issues

through regional

cooperation

Is the regional development arm of the United Nations

for the Asia-Pacific region

ESCAP work rests on three pillars

Inter-governmental

Analytical

Technical cooperation

ESCAP work is multidisciplinary

Older persons: many faces of one of

the major achievements of

development

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

Life e

xpecta

ncy a

t birth

(years

)

Life

birth

s p

er

wo

ma

n (

ag

ed

15

-49)

Total fertility (births per woman 15-49) Life expectancy at birth (years)

TFR

e(0)

Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2017).

World Population Prospects: The 2017 Revision - Special Aggregates, DVD Edition; United Nations,

Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2017) (Asia-Pacific = ESCAP members).

Demographic transition, Asia-Pacific (total fertility rate and life expectancy at birth, 1950-2050

10.00 5.00 5.0 10.0

0-45-910-1415-1920-2425-2930-3435-3940-4445-4950-5455-5960-6465-6970-7475-7980-8485-8990-9495-99100+

Percentage

Female, 2050 Male, 2050 Female, 2015

Male, 2015 Female, 2000 Male, 2000

Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2017). World Population

Prospects: The 2017 Revision - Special Aggregates, DVD Edition; United Nations, Department of Economic and

Social Affairs, Population Division (2017).

Asia-Pacific, 2050

A growing number and share of

persons 65+ in Asia-Pacific(in thousand - % of total)

2019

2030

2050

415,779 – 9.00%

611,019 – 12.3%

965,438 – 18.15%United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs (2019). World Population Prospects: The 2019 Revision.

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

19

50

19

60

19

70

19

80

19

90

20

00

20

10

20

20

20

30

20

40

20

50

20

60

20

70

20

80

20

90

21

00

Tota

l po

pu

lation, bo

th s

exes (

1,0

00)

0-14 15-64 65+

0-14 15-64 65+



Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2017).

2020

2100

Per cent of total

population

In Asia-Pacific, by 2050, number of

older persons > younger

Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2019). World Population Prospects - Population

Division - United Nations. [online] Available at: https://population.un.org/wpp/Download/Standard/Population/ [Accessed 4 Jul. 2019].;

United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2017).

Share of older persons (65+) in Thailand >

share of older persons in South-East Asia,

2019, 2030, 2050

6.9

10.3

16.7

12.4

19.6

29.6

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

2019 2030 2050

Population aged 65+ as a percentage of the total population (%)

South East Asia Thailand

0

10

20

30

40

50

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45

Po

pu

latio

n 0

-14

(p

er

ce

nt)

Population 65 years or over (per cent)

1950 2000 2030 2050 2100

In Asia-Pacific, age structures

are shifting



Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2017).

Demographic window explained

• Share of children falls

(permanently) below 30%

• Share of older persons is (still)

less than 15% (UN 2004)

• Demographic window =

window of opportunity for

economic development

• Requirement:

Larger investments in

people (education),

infrastructure

and jobs

become possible

Kazakhstan

Indonesia

Papua New

Guinea

Children (0-14) < 30% and older persons (65+) <15%




Demographic window open or opening

for countries in Asia-Pacific

Demographic window – Japan




0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

1950

1955

1960

1965

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

2055

2060

2065

2070

2075

2080

2085

2090

2095

2100

0-14 15-64 65+

←30→

Demographic window – Thailand




0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

1950

1955

1960

1965

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

2055

2060

2065

2070

2075

2080

2085

2090

2095

2100

0-14 15-64 65+

←25→

Demographic window – Timor Leste




0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

1950

1955

1960

1965

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

2055

2060

2065

2070

2075

2080

2085

2090

2095

2100

0-14 15-64 65+

←30→

15

15

20

20

20

25

25

26

45

45

45

53

65

69

73

85

115

Viet Nam (2020-2035)

Singapore (2000-2015)

Sri Lanka (2010-2030)

Republic of Korea (2000-2020)

China (2005-2025)

Brazil (2010-2035)

Turkey (2010-2035)

Japan (1970-1996)

Poland (1966-2011)

Spain (1947-1992)

United Kingdom (1930-1975)

Hungary (1944-1994)

Canada (1944-2009)

United States (1944-2013)

Australia (1938-2011)

Sweden (1890-1975)

France (1865-1980)

number of years required or

expected for percent of population

aged 65 or over to rise from 7 to 14

per cent

In Asia-Pacific, many countries

experiencing rapid population ageing

In Asia-Pacific, older persons often spend

up to 10 years with impairment(life expectancy at birth (dark color) vs. healthy life expectancy at birth (light color), 2015-2020)

0 20 40 60 80

Afghanistan

Kiribati

Papua New Guinea

Myanmar

Lao People's Democratic Republic

Pakistan

Timor-Leste

Mongolia

Turkmenistan

India

Russian Federation

Philippines

Cambodia

Fiji

Kazakhstan

Indonesia

Micronesia (Federated States of)

Nepal

Kyrgyzstan

Bhutan

Solomon Islands

Tajikistan

Vanuatu

Democratic People's Republic of Korea

Tonga

Bangladesh

Uzbekistan

Thailand

Samoa

Viet Nam

Sri Lanka

Turkey

Iran (Islamic Republic of)

Malaysia

Brunei Darussalam

China

Maldives

Republic of Korea

Australia

New Zealand

Japan

Singapore

Male

0 20 40 60 80

Afghanistan

Pakistan

Lao People's Democratic Republic

Kiribati

Papua New Guinea

India

Myanmar

Bhutan

Timor-Leste

Micronesia (Federated States of)

Nepal

Cambodia

Solomon Islands

Indonesia

Fiji

Vanuatu

Turkmenistan

Bangladesh

Philippines

Tajikistan

Mongolia

Iran (Islamic Republic of)

Tonga

Uzbekistan

Kyrgyzstan

Kazakhstan

Democratic People's Republic of Korea

Russian Federation

Turkey

Samoa

Malaysia

Brunei Darussalam

Sri Lanka

China

Maldives

Thailand

Viet Nam

New Zealand

Australia

Republic of Korea

Japan

Singapore

years



Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2017); WHO, Global Health Observatory data repository,

http://apps.who.int/gho/data/view.main.HALEXv (accessed 28 April 2019).

Female

years

http://apps.who.int/gho/data/view.main.HALEXv

0 20 40 60 80 100

100+95-9990-9485-8980-8475-7970-7465-6960-6455-5950-5445-4940-4435-3930-3425-2920-2415-1910-14

5-90-4

Female MalePercentage




In Asia-Pacific, most older persons 60+ are

women, 2019

In Asia-Pacific, most older persons (65+)

live with their children

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40N

ew

Zeala

nd

Ru

ssia

n F

ed

era

tion

Austr

alia

Iran

(Is

lam

ic R

ep

ublic

of)

Re

pub

lic o

f K

ore

a

Kazakhsta

n

Japa

n

Turk

ey

Arm

enia

Ch

ina

, H

ong K

on

g S

AR

Ch

ina

, M

aca

o S

AR

Indon

esia

Mo

ngo

lia

Vie

t N

am

Kyrg

yzsta

n

Uzbe

kis

tan

Ch

ina

Aze

rbaija

n

Ma

laysia

Tha

iland

Myan

ma

r

Ne

pal

India

Ca

mbo

dia

Phili

ppin

es

Tim

or-

Leste

Ma

ldiv

es

Tajik

ista

n

Fiji

Bang

lad

esh

Pakis

tan

Afg

ha

nis

tan

One-p

ers

on

ho

use

ho

lds (

pe

rce

nta

ge

)

female male

Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2018). Database on the

Households and Living Arrangements of Older Persons 2018. (most recent data).

… but more women live

alone than men

In Asia-Pacific, people still live between

19 and 30 years after retirement

6060

55

62

65 55 63 60

57

55 55

55

62 6555

63 6057

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Viet Nam China IslamicRepublicof Iran

Singapore Japan Fiji Thailand Sri Lanka Indonesia

Years

Male Female

Retirement age

Life expectancy at the respective retirement age

Source: ESCAP calculations with data from United Nations Department of Economic and

Social Affairs: World Population Prospects, the 2017 Revision

Coverage of pensions is low in most

countries of Asia-Pacific

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

Ja

pa

nK

aza

kh

sta

nA

ustr

alia Fiji

Ch

ina

Ko

rea

, R

ep

ub

lic o

fH

ong K

ong , C

hin

aM

on

go

liaR

ussia

n F

ed

era

tio

nS

ing

ap

ore

So

lom

on Isla

nd

sK

yrg

yzsta

nT

ha

ilan

dM

ala

ysia

Tu

rke

yA

rmenia

Sa

mo

aG

eo

rgia

Aze

rba

ijan

Ph

ilip

pin

es

Vie

t N

am

Ta

jikis

tan

Ma

ldiv

es

Sri L

an

ka

Ira

n, Is

lam

ic…

Va

nua

tuB

hu

tan

Ind

iaIn

do

ne

sia

To

ng

aP

akis

tan

Pa

pua

Ne

w G

uin

ea

Ne

pa

lA

fgh

an

ista

nLao P

DR

Ba

ngla

de

sh

Ca

mb

od

iaT

imo

r-L

este

Percentage of the working age population

Effective coverage of pensions as a

percentage of the working-age population,

total, latest available year

Source: International Labour Organization, Social Protection Report 2017-2019

Most pension beneficiaries are in

highest income groups

Source: World Bank, ASPIRE database, Atlas of Social Protection Indicators

of Resilience and Equity, online, accessed 6 June 2019

Contributory pensions: beneficiary incidence by income quintile

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Tim

or-

Le

ste

Ind

one

sia

Ban

gla

de

sh

Th

aila

nd

Nepa

l

Vie

t N

am

Phili

ppin

es

Pap

ua N

ew

Guin

ea

Pakis

tan

Sri L

an

ka

Cam

bod

ia

Ma

ldiv

es

Bhu

tan

Kaza

kh

sta

n

Tu

rkey

Chin

a

Kyrg

yzsta

n

Arm

en

ia

Russia

n F

ede

ratio

n

Mo

ngo

lia

Azerb

aija

n

Ta

jikis

tan

Ind

ia

1st quntile 2nd quintile 3rd quintile 4th quintile 5th quintile

Healthcare costs are mostly borne by

private households

Source: WHO, Global Health Observatory Data Repository, online, accessed 10 June 2019

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90

New ZealandKiribatiTuvaluNauru

Micronesia (Federated States of)Solomon Islands

Papua New GuineaCook Islands

VanuatuMarshall Islands

Timor-LesteSamoa

ThailandJapan

TurkeyBhutan

FijiPalauChina

Russian FederationMalaysia

SingaporeRepublic of Korea

Sri LankaKazakhstan

MongoliaIran (Islamic Republic of)

Viet NamLao People's Democratic Republic

KyrgyzstanIndonesia

PhilippinesGeorgia

CambodiaNepal

TajikistanIndia

PakistanTurkmenistan

BangladeshMyanmar

AfghanistanAzerbaijan

Armenia

Out-of-pocket expenditure as percentage of current

health expenditure (CHE) (%), 2015

Thailand: support from children and

work income most important

income sources of older persons

Support from

children, 36.7

Work income,

33.9

Social pension,

14.8

Contributory pension, 4.9

Transfers from

spouse, 4.3

Savings and assets, 3.9 Other,

1.5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

60-64 65-69 70-79 80+P

er

ce

nt

Age group

Income sources of older

persons in Thailand

Source: Jinanggoon Rojananan, Presentation made at the Annual Help Age

Conference 2019; Department of Older Persons, Ministry of Social

Development and Human Security

Percentage of older persons with

savings by age group, 2011

Global guiding document on

population ageing

Priority direction:

A. Older persons and

development;

B. Advancing health and well-

being into old age;

C. Ensuring enabling and

supportive environments.

Madrid International Plan of Action

on Ageing (MIPAA)

1st Review

• 2007 – 1st Asia-Pacific Review of MIPAA in China: Macao Outcome Document - ESCAP

• 2008 – 1st Global Review of MIPAA at te 45th and 46th CSD sessions

2nd Review

• 2012 – 2nd Asia-Pacific Review of MIPAA in Thailand: Bangkok Statement -ESCAP

• 2013 – 2nd Global Review of MIPAA at the 49th CSD session

3rd Review

• 2017 – 3rd Asia-Pacific Review of MIPAA in Bangkok - ESCAP

• 2018 – 3rd Global Review of MIPAA at 52nd CSD session

2022/23 ????

1982 – Vienna International Plan of Action on Ageing2002 – Adoption of MIPAA at the 2nd World Assembly on Ageing

MIPAA - Timeline

MIPAA and 2030 Agenda

The 2030 Agenda is a

holistic agenda -emphasizing

the need to leave no one

behind

MIPAA and the 2030

Agenda are complimentary

MIPAA provides a more

detailed action plan for

older persons

SDG 1 – no poverty

SDG 2 – end hunger

SDG 3 – healthy lives and well-being at all ages

SDG 5 – gender equality for all women

SDG 8 – inclusive and sustainable economic growth,

full and productive employment and

decent work for all

SDG 10 – reduce inequalities

SDG 11 – sustainable cities

SDGs and population ageing

high-quality, timely and reliable data disaggregated by income, gender, age, race,

ethnicity, migratory status, disability, geographic location and other characteristics

relevant in national contexts (A/RES/701/ - para 17.18)

Source: Source: United Nations, World Population Policies Database.

http://esa.un.org/poppolicy/about_database.aspx.(accessed 27 April 2019); only countries with available data

are shown.

2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

Brunei Darussalam NA NA Minor Minor Minor Minor Minor Minor

Cambodia NA NA Minor Major Major Minor Minor Minor

Indonesia Minor Minor Minor Minor Minor Minor Minor Major

Lao PDR NA Minor Minor Minor Minor Minor Minor Minor

Myanmar NA NA Minor Minor Minor Minor Minor Minor

Philippines Minor Minor Minor Minor Minor Minor Minor Major

Singapore Minor Major Major Major Major Major Major Major

Thailand Major Major Major Major Major Major Major Major

Viet Nam NA Minor Major Major Major Major Major Major

Government views on

population ageing – concern or not?

http://esa.un.org/poppolicy/about_database.aspx.(accessed

To provide a comprehensive framework and guide for enhancing the quality of life of older women and men

A healthy, empowered and active older population today and in the future supported and enabled over their life course to live a quality life with dignity and respect

• Coordinate services for older persons• Make services affordable and accessible• Ensure the participation of older persons

in Government policies• Protect the human rights of older persons• Provide a positive image of older persons

VISION

PURPOSE

OBJECTIVES

What are the overarching principles/

values of an older persons’ policy

National Plans on Ageing (MIPAA) - Thailand

Source: Camilla Williamson, Policy Mapping on Ageing in Asia and the Pacific

Analytical Report. HelpAge International, East Asia/Pacific Regional Office (July 2015)

Priority Areas

Awareness on ageing and a

positive image of older persons

Appropriate and accessible healthcare

Care options for older persons,

their families and communities

Financial Security (Pensions)

Access to employment recreation,

education, and community

What should a national policy entail?

A proposal

• Supporting MIPAA review

• ICTs

• Capacity-building on data,

pensions

• Active ageing

index/dashboard

• Research and analysis on

levels, trends

and policies

ESCAP work on population ageing

Population ageing agenda an agenda

for all generations

THANK YOU!

WWW.UNESCAP.ORG

UNESCAP

UNESCAP

UNESCAP

UNITEDNATIONSESCAP

UNITEDNATIONSESCAP

population ageing in asia-pacific: challenges and ... · (total fertility rate and life expectancy...

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