ponge - illuminating the ground - the mood in siaya county

Illuminating the Ground Illuminating the Ground -- The Mood in The Mood in

SiayaSiaya County ahead of Elections 2013.County ahead of Elections 2013.

By Awuor PongeBy Awuor Ponge

Institute of Policy Analysis and Research (IPAR); andInstitute of Policy Analysis and Research (IPAR); and

Institute of Education (Institute of Education (IoEIoE), University of London), University of London

30 December 201230 December 2012

30 December 201230 December 2012 Awuor Ponge BriefsAwuor Ponge Briefs 22

Presentation OutlinePresentation Outline

• County Voter Statistics

• Comparative Registration Figures

• Comparative Briefs

• Senatorial Race

• Gubernatorial Race

• Constituency Statistics and Parliamentary Race

• What needs to be done


County Voter StatisticsCounty Voter Statistics

79.59%312,518392,682842,304

80.31%50,37762,731134,558RARIEDA

81.18%59,61773,437157,522BONDO

74.68%55,94274,907160,675GEM

82.06%71,62887,293187,243ALEGO USONGA

80.16%34,89343,53093,372UGUNJA

78.88%40,06150,785108,934UGENYA

% age Enrollment at close

of Registration on 18th

December 2012

Enrollment at close

of Registration

on 18th

December 2012

Estimated

Voting

Population

County

Assembly

Ward

Population

(Approx.)

Constituency

Name

Source: Source: IEBC. (2012). Voter Registration Statistics


Comparative Registration FiguresComparative Registration Figures

Siaya County - Constituencies Comparative Registration Figures

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

160,000

180,000

200,000

UGENYA UGUNJA ALEGO

USONGA

GEM BONDO RARIEDA

Constituency Name

Voter Registration Numbers

County Assembly Ward Population (Approx.)

Estimated Voting Population

Enrollment at close of Registration on 18th December 2012



Comparative BriefsComparative Briefs

• Former greater Ugenya Constituency has the highest registered voters at 74, 954 but it has since been split into two.

• Alego-Usonga is the single Constituency with the highest voter registration at 71, 628

• Second in voter registration is Bondo with 59, 617;

• Third is Gem with 55, 942

• Fourth is Rarieda with 50, 377

• Fifth is Ugenya with 40, 061

• Sixth is Ugunja with 34, 893.


Senatorial RaceSenatorial Race• Front runner is Hon. James Aggrey Orengo ‘Nyatieng’.

• Hon. Oburu Odinga withdrew from the race.

• Orengo not likely to meet a challenge from his arch rival Steve Muwanga, after the latter opted to retry the Ugenya seat he was DENIED in Elections 2007.

• Orengo’s support for Dr. Oburu Odinga’s Gubernatorial race likely to cost him a substantial base of support.

• Orengo can bank on the support of Ugenya, Ugunja, Alego-Usonga and Gem.

• This is likely to be a one-horse race if Orengo leaves the Oburu campaigns alone.

• A likely independent candidate from the Diaspora has been touting the possibility of trying the Siaya Senatorial seat, but the mood on the ground is overwhelmingly in support of Orengo.


Gubernatorial Race Gubernatorial Race -- 11

• Front runner is William Oduol Denge from Alego-Usonga.

• Oduol enjoys the support of the populous Alego-Usonga, Gem, Ugenya and Ugunja.

• Facing competition from Dr. Oburu Odinga.

• Mood on the ground is anti-Oburu as it is perceived he is being imposed on the people.

• Another serious challenger is Malik Abong’o Obama as an Independent Candidate.

• Obama is elder brother to the USA President Barrack Hussein Obama Jr.

• Obama likely to benefit in the event of an ODM goof in the nominations.


Gubernatorial Race Gubernatorial Race -- 22• Other NOT SO SERIOUS contenders include Banker Felix Owaga Okatch from Gem.

• Owaga doesn’t even have the Gem support.

• Former Gem MP, Joe Donde - Word has it that he is being prevailed upon to support his cousin, Oburu Odinga and be his running-mate.

• Okinda JT - Also has a very small support base from Gem only.

• General feeling from Gem that they also need to feature in top County positions.

• Lawyer Stephen Aluoch K’Opot being groomed for County Assembly Speaker.


Gubernatorial Race Gubernatorial Race -- 33

• Internationally renown Governance Expert, Gideon Ochanda was being groomed for Deputy Governor but opted out to vie in Bondo Constituency.

• Maseno University Sociology Don, Dr. Nick Ogollaalso being groomed as a potential Deputy Governor.

• The most likely winning team MUST HAVE Oduolwith either Ochanda or Dr. Ogolla as running mate.

• Dr. Oburu Odinga is likely to appoint his cousin Hon. Joe Donde as running mate - This may be DISASTROUS for their candidacy!

• Oduol MUST appoint a running-mate from either Bondo or Rarieda to win.


UgenyaUgenya Constituency Constituency -- 11

78.88%40,06150,785108,934

75.98%10,71814,10630,258East Ugenya

76.17%9,61612,62527,081North Ugenya

86.66%8,5939,91621,270Ukwala

78.76%11,13414,13730,325West Ugenya

% age Enrollment at

close of

Registration on

18th December

2012

Enrollment at close of

Registration on

18th December

2012

Estimated

Voting

Population

County

Assembly

Ward

Population

(Approx.)

County

Assembly

Ward

Name



UgenyaUgenya Constituency Constituency -- 22

Ugenya Constituency Voter Registration Statistics - December 2012

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

West Ugenya Ukwala North

Ugenya

East Ugenya

County Assembly Ward



Population (Approx.)


Enrollment at close of Registration

on 18th December 2012



UgenyaUgenya Parliamentary RaceParliamentary Race• The front-runner for the seat is Mama Mary Otieno ‘Olute’.

• Mama Mary boasts of massive support from the Catholic Church. Although a late comer, she has very strong grassroots support.

• Like in 2007, Ugenya is likely to be a free ride for the ODM candidate.

• Steve Muwanga is also very strong on the ground. His 2007 strong challenge to Hon. Orengo gives him leverage.

• Muwanga’s association with the Oburu campaign team is likely to cost him a substantial support base.

• Other contenders are Steve Kakan, David Ochieng’ and Ranginya.

• David Ochieng’ is unpopular because of his apparent arrogance in dealing with potential voters.


UgunjaUgunja Constituency Constituency -- 11

80.16%34,89343,53093,372

84.78%15,49818,28139,213Ugunja

77.68%10,73113,81429,632Sigomere

75.77%8,66411,43424,527Sidindi


of Registration on

18th December 2012

Enrollment at close

of Registration

on 18th

December

2012

Estimated

Voting

Population

County Assembly

Ward

Population

(Approx.)

County

Assembly

Ward

Name



UgunjaUgunja Constituency Constituency -- 22

Ugunja Constituency Voter Registration Statistics - December 2012

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

Sidindi Sigomere Ugunja










UgunjaUgunja Parliamentary RaceParliamentary Race

• The front-runner for the seat is a former BAT employee, Opiyo Wandaye.

• Just like Ugenya, this is also likely to be a free ride for the ODM candidate.

• Wandaye is facing stiff competition from former KANU stalwart and former Councillor, Peter Odero.

• Peter Odero is very popular with the old while Wandaye boasts of youth and women support.

• Another contender is Otieno Aluru who appears to be fighting a losing game after being widely associated with the Oburu campaign team.


AlegoAlego--UsongaUsonga Constituency Constituency -- 11

82.06%71,62887,293187,243

78.52%16,97921,62546,386South East Alego

76.83%11,38214,81431,777North Alego

100.35%15,08815,03632,252Siaya Township

79.63%11,50614,44930,993Central Alego

78.90%11,85615,02732,234West Alego

75.97%4,8176,34113,601Usonga


of Registration on

18th December 2012

Enrollment at close

of Registration

on 18th

December 2012

Estimated

Voting

Populati

on

County Assembly

Ward

Population

(Approx.)

County Assembly

Ward Name



AlegoAlego--UsongaUsonga Constituency Constituency -- 22

Alego-Usonga Constituency Voter Registration Statistics - December

2012

05,00010,00015,00020,00025,00030,00035,00040,00045,00050,000

Uso

nga

Wes

t Alego

Cen

tral Alego

Siaya

Tow

nship

North Alego

Sou

th Eas

t Alego







Registration on 18th December

2012



AlegoAlego--UsongaUsonga Parliamentary RaceParliamentary Race

• Front-runner for the seat is incumbent Edwin Ochieng’ Yinda.

• No words mentioned about former MP Peter OlooAring’o after it became apparent Oreng’o was favourite for Senate seat.

• Yinda favourite because of consolidated women support. Women comprise the bulk of voters.

• Potential strong challenger, Prof. Jacqueline Oduolfingers recently oiled with a PS appointment.

• No serious challenge for Ochieng’ Yinda.

• Another contender is Odunga Mamba, who despite having massive grassroots support is disadvantaged because of his ‘perceived’ illiteracy.


Gem Constituency Gem Constituency -- 11

74.68%55,94274,907160,675

78.41%11,12114,18230,421South Gem

74.21%8,56711,54524,764East Gem

79.48%8,57810,79323,151Yala Township

70.42%7,83111,12123,854Central Gem

74.83%8,19210,94723,481West Gem

71.41%11,65316,31935,004North Gem


of Registration on

18th December 2012

Enrollment at close

of Registration

on 18th

December 2012

Estimated

Voting

Populati

on

County

Assembly

Ward

Population

(Approx.)

County Assembly

Ward Name



Gem Constituency Gem Constituency -- 22Gem Constituency Voter Registration Statistics - December 2012

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

North G

em

Wes

t Gem

Cen

tral G

em

Yala To

wns

hip

Eas

t Gem

Sou

th G

em










Gem Parliamentary RaceGem Parliamentary Race• There is no front-runner for the seat.

• Likely to be a hot three-horse race.

• Incumbent MP Hon. Washington Jakoyo Midiwo facing stiff competition from two main challengers.

• SDP stamping authority through its candidate Eng. Booker Ng’esa Omole.

• Eng. Booker Omole banking on youth agenda, content and a solid YalaDivision base of 65% of all registered voters in Gem.

• Hon. Jakoyo banking on past development record, but the ODM nomination fears may work against him.

• Candidates fear ODM nominations because they know it is for Jakoyo to lose.

• Former tough-challenger Elisha Ochieng’ Odhiambo not come out in the open to declare interest.

• Independent Candidate, Asuna Oluoch from West Gem is banking on a possible ODM nominations goof.

• Wagai division votes (35%) likely to be split between Hon. Jakoyo and Asuna Oluoch giving Eng. Booker a walkover in Yala Division (65%).

• Asuna Oluoch has a massive grassroots support and likely to beat Jakoyoeven in Jakoyo’s hometuff of South Gem.

• No other serious contenders have declared interest.


BondoBondo Constituency Constituency -- 11

81.18%59,61773,437157,522

80.32%12,41815,46133,164North Sakwa

93.45%11,02811,80125,313West Sakwa

79.80%10,11512,67527,189Yimbo East

75.83%8,22310,84423,260South Sakwa

84.23%7,8909,36720,093Central Sakwa

74.83%9,94313,28828,503West Yimbo


of Registration on

18th December 2012

Enrollment at close

of Registration

on 18th

December 2012

Estimated

Voting

Populati

on

County

Assembly

Ward

Population

(Approx.)

County

Assembly

Ward

Name



BondoBondo Constituency Constituency -- 22Bondo Constituency Voter Registration Statistics - December 2012

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

West

Yimbo

Central

Sakwa

South

Sakwa

Yimbo

East

West

Sakwa

North

Sakwa







Registration on 18th December

2012



BondoBondo Parliamentary RaceParliamentary Race

• The front-runner for the seat is Gideon Ochanda, though a late entrant after expressing interest in Governorship.

• Mama Jacinta Maganda was very strong before Ochanda’sentry, BUT may still turn tables.

• Likely to be a free ride for the ODM Candidate.

• Likely to be a two-horse race between Ochanda and Mama Jacinta Maganda.

• Former UN employee and Social Accountability Activist, Joseph Kwaka is being touted as a potential contender for the seat, although he has not come out in the open to declare interest.

• As a last resort, the incumbent, Hon. Oburu Odinga may opt to defend his seat, but would be really HUMILIATING.

• Other aspirants are Cornelius Agutu, Ouma Onyango and Steve Scot.


RariedaRarieda Constituency Constituency -- 11

80.31%50,37762,731134,558

82.08%10,64512,96927,819West Uyoma

74.30%6,7679,10819,536South Uyoma

77.65%7,6919,90421,245North Uyoma

82.39%12,70315,41833,072West Asembo

81.99%12,57115,33132,886East Asembo


of Registration on

18th December 2012

Enrollment at close

of Registration

on 18th

December 2012

Estimated

Voting

Populati

on

County

Assembly

Ward

Population

(Approx.)

County

Assembly

Ward

Name



RariedaRarieda Constituency Constituency -- 22

Rarieda Constituency Voter Registration Statistics - December 2012

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

East

Asembo

West

Asembo

North

Uyoma

South

Uyoma

West

Uyoma










RariedaRarieda Parliamentary RaceParliamentary Race

• The front-runner for the seat is incumbent Hon. Eng. Nicholas Gumbo.

• Likely to be a free ride for the ODM Candidate.

• Incumbent has no serious challenger.

• Other contenders are Fred Athuok and Agustino Neto.

• Agustino Neto may boast of age and youth support.


What Needs to be DoneWhat Needs to be Done

• Racing against time - Choose credible leaders.

• URGENT need for social vetting of candidates.

• Scrutinise manifestos of candidates.

• Address issues rather than personalities.

• Vote for policies rather than party euphoria.

• Not allow oneself to be bought to vote in a candidate.

• Preach peaceful coexistence beyond the election date.

• Ensure free and fair nomination exercise in all the competing parties.

• Be tolerant of divergent opinion and allow opposing candidates to campaign freely.

• Come out in large numbers and VOTE on election day.


Questions and Answer Session

For further information, get in touch with:

Awuor Ponge

[email protected] ; [email protected]

Mobile Telephone: +254 721 962 660

Thank you for your attention!!!Thank you for your attention!!!

ponge - illuminating the ground - the mood in siaya county

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