Illuminating the Ground Illuminating the Ground -- The Mood in The Mood in
SiayaSiaya County ahead of Elections 2013.County ahead of Elections 2013.
By Awuor PongeBy Awuor Ponge
Institute of Policy Analysis and Research (IPAR); andInstitute of Policy Analysis and Research (IPAR); and
Institute of Education (Institute of Education (IoEIoE), University of London), University of London
30 December 201230 December 2012
30 December 201230 December 2012 Awuor Ponge BriefsAwuor Ponge Briefs 22
Presentation OutlinePresentation Outline
• County Voter Statistics
• Comparative Registration Figures
• Comparative Briefs
• Senatorial Race
• Gubernatorial Race
• Constituency Statistics and Parliamentary Race
• What needs to be done
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County Voter StatisticsCounty Voter Statistics
79.59%312,518392,682842,304
80.31%50,37762,731134,558RARIEDA
81.18%59,61773,437157,522BONDO
74.68%55,94274,907160,675GEM
82.06%71,62887,293187,243ALEGO USONGA
80.16%34,89343,53093,372UGUNJA
78.88%40,06150,785108,934UGENYA
% age Enrollment at close
of Registration on 18th
December 2012
Enrollment at close
of Registration
on 18th
December 2012
Estimated
Voting
Population
County
Assembly
Ward
Population
(Approx.)
Constituency
Name
Source: Source: IEBC. (2012). Voter Registration Statistics
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Comparative Registration FiguresComparative Registration Figures
Siaya County - Constituencies Comparative Registration Figures
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
180,000
200,000
UGENYA UGUNJA ALEGO
USONGA
GEM BONDO RARIEDA
Constituency Name
Voter Registration Numbers
County Assembly Ward Population (Approx.)
Estimated Voting Population
Enrollment at close of Registration on 18th December 2012
Source: Source: IEBC. (2012). Voter Registration Statistics
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Comparative BriefsComparative Briefs
• Former greater Ugenya Constituency has the highest registered voters at 74, 954 but it has since been split into two.
• Alego-Usonga is the single Constituency with the highest voter registration at 71, 628
• Second in voter registration is Bondo with 59, 617;
• Third is Gem with 55, 942
• Fourth is Rarieda with 50, 377
• Fifth is Ugenya with 40, 061
• Sixth is Ugunja with 34, 893.
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Senatorial RaceSenatorial Race• Front runner is Hon. James Aggrey Orengo ‘Nyatieng’.
• Hon. Oburu Odinga withdrew from the race.
• Orengo not likely to meet a challenge from his arch rival Steve Muwanga, after the latter opted to retry the Ugenya seat he was DENIED in Elections 2007.
• Orengo’s support for Dr. Oburu Odinga’s Gubernatorial race likely to cost him a substantial base of support.
• Orengo can bank on the support of Ugenya, Ugunja, Alego-Usonga and Gem.
• This is likely to be a one-horse race if Orengo leaves the Oburu campaigns alone.
• A likely independent candidate from the Diaspora has been touting the possibility of trying the Siaya Senatorial seat, but the mood on the ground is overwhelmingly in support of Orengo.
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Gubernatorial Race Gubernatorial Race -- 11
• Front runner is William Oduol Denge from Alego-Usonga.
• Oduol enjoys the support of the populous Alego-Usonga, Gem, Ugenya and Ugunja.
• Facing competition from Dr. Oburu Odinga.
• Mood on the ground is anti-Oburu as it is perceived he is being imposed on the people.
• Another serious challenger is Malik Abong’o Obama as an Independent Candidate.
• Obama is elder brother to the USA President Barrack Hussein Obama Jr.
• Obama likely to benefit in the event of an ODM goof in the nominations.
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Gubernatorial Race Gubernatorial Race -- 22• Other NOT SO SERIOUS contenders include Banker Felix Owaga Okatch from Gem.
• Owaga doesn’t even have the Gem support.
• Former Gem MP, Joe Donde - Word has it that he is being prevailed upon to support his cousin, Oburu Odinga and be his running-mate.
• Okinda JT - Also has a very small support base from Gem only.
• General feeling from Gem that they also need to feature in top County positions.
• Lawyer Stephen Aluoch K’Opot being groomed for County Assembly Speaker.
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Gubernatorial Race Gubernatorial Race -- 33
• Internationally renown Governance Expert, Gideon Ochanda was being groomed for Deputy Governor but opted out to vie in Bondo Constituency.
• Maseno University Sociology Don, Dr. Nick Ogollaalso being groomed as a potential Deputy Governor.
• The most likely winning team MUST HAVE Oduolwith either Ochanda or Dr. Ogolla as running mate.
• Dr. Oburu Odinga is likely to appoint his cousin Hon. Joe Donde as running mate - This may be DISASTROUS for their candidacy!
• Oduol MUST appoint a running-mate from either Bondo or Rarieda to win.
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UgenyaUgenya Constituency Constituency -- 11
78.88%40,06150,785108,934
75.98%10,71814,10630,258East Ugenya
76.17%9,61612,62527,081North Ugenya
86.66%8,5939,91621,270Ukwala
78.76%11,13414,13730,325West Ugenya
% age Enrollment at
close of
Registration on
18th December
2012
Enrollment at close of
Registration on
18th December
2012
Estimated
Voting
Population
County
Assembly
Ward
Population
(Approx.)
County
Assembly
Ward
Name
Source: Source: IEBC. (2012). Voter Registration Statistics
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UgenyaUgenya Constituency Constituency -- 22
Ugenya Constituency Voter Registration Statistics - December 2012
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
West Ugenya Ukwala North
Ugenya
East Ugenya
County Assembly Ward
Voter Registration Numbers
County Assembly Ward
Population (Approx.)
Estimated Voting Population
Enrollment at close of Registration
on 18th December 2012
Source: Source: IEBC. (2012). Voter Registration Statistics
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UgenyaUgenya Parliamentary RaceParliamentary Race• The front-runner for the seat is Mama Mary Otieno ‘Olute’.
• Mama Mary boasts of massive support from the Catholic Church. Although a late comer, she has very strong grassroots support.
• Like in 2007, Ugenya is likely to be a free ride for the ODM candidate.
• Steve Muwanga is also very strong on the ground. His 2007 strong challenge to Hon. Orengo gives him leverage.
• Muwanga’s association with the Oburu campaign team is likely to cost him a substantial support base.
• Other contenders are Steve Kakan, David Ochieng’ and Ranginya.
• David Ochieng’ is unpopular because of his apparent arrogance in dealing with potential voters.
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UgunjaUgunja Constituency Constituency -- 11
80.16%34,89343,53093,372
84.78%15,49818,28139,213Ugunja
77.68%10,73113,81429,632Sigomere
75.77%8,66411,43424,527Sidindi
% age Enrollment at close
of Registration on
18th December 2012
Enrollment at close
of Registration
on 18th
December
2012
Estimated
Voting
Population
County Assembly
Ward
Population
(Approx.)
County
Assembly
Ward
Name
Source: Source: IEBC. (2012). Voter Registration Statistics
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UgunjaUgunja Constituency Constituency -- 22
Ugunja Constituency Voter Registration Statistics - December 2012
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
Sidindi Sigomere Ugunja
County Assembly Ward
Voter Registration Numbers
County Assembly Ward
Population (Approx.)
Estimated Voting Population
Enrollment at close of Registration
on 18th December 2012
Source: Source: IEBC. (2012). Voter Registration Statistics
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UgunjaUgunja Parliamentary RaceParliamentary Race
• The front-runner for the seat is a former BAT employee, Opiyo Wandaye.
• Just like Ugenya, this is also likely to be a free ride for the ODM candidate.
• Wandaye is facing stiff competition from former KANU stalwart and former Councillor, Peter Odero.
• Peter Odero is very popular with the old while Wandaye boasts of youth and women support.
• Another contender is Otieno Aluru who appears to be fighting a losing game after being widely associated with the Oburu campaign team.
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AlegoAlego--UsongaUsonga Constituency Constituency -- 11
82.06%71,62887,293187,243
78.52%16,97921,62546,386South East Alego
76.83%11,38214,81431,777North Alego
100.35%15,08815,03632,252Siaya Township
79.63%11,50614,44930,993Central Alego
78.90%11,85615,02732,234West Alego
75.97%4,8176,34113,601Usonga
% age Enrollment at close
of Registration on
18th December 2012
Enrollment at close
of Registration
on 18th
December 2012
Estimated
Voting
Populati
on
County Assembly
Ward
Population
(Approx.)
County Assembly
Ward Name
Source: Source: IEBC. (2012). Voter Registration Statistics
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AlegoAlego--UsongaUsonga Constituency Constituency -- 22
Alego-Usonga Constituency Voter Registration Statistics - December
2012
05,00010,00015,00020,00025,00030,00035,00040,00045,00050,000
Uso
nga
Wes
t Alego
Cen
tral Alego
Siaya
Tow
nship
North Alego
Sou
th Eas
t Alego
County Assembly Ward
Voter Registration Numbers
County Assembly Ward
Population (Approx.)
Estimated Voting Population
Enrollment at close of
Registration on 18th December
2012
Source: Source: IEBC. (2012). Voter Registration Statistics
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AlegoAlego--UsongaUsonga Parliamentary RaceParliamentary Race
• Front-runner for the seat is incumbent Edwin Ochieng’ Yinda.
• No words mentioned about former MP Peter OlooAring’o after it became apparent Oreng’o was favourite for Senate seat.
• Yinda favourite because of consolidated women support. Women comprise the bulk of voters.
• Potential strong challenger, Prof. Jacqueline Oduolfingers recently oiled with a PS appointment.
• No serious challenge for Ochieng’ Yinda.
• Another contender is Odunga Mamba, who despite having massive grassroots support is disadvantaged because of his ‘perceived’ illiteracy.
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Gem Constituency Gem Constituency -- 11
74.68%55,94274,907160,675
78.41%11,12114,18230,421South Gem
74.21%8,56711,54524,764East Gem
79.48%8,57810,79323,151Yala Township
70.42%7,83111,12123,854Central Gem
74.83%8,19210,94723,481West Gem
71.41%11,65316,31935,004North Gem
% age Enrollment at close
of Registration on
18th December 2012
Enrollment at close
of Registration
on 18th
December 2012
Estimated
Voting
Populati
on
County
Assembly
Ward
Population
(Approx.)
County Assembly
Ward Name
Source: Source: IEBC. (2012). Voter Registration Statistics
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Gem Constituency Gem Constituency -- 22Gem Constituency Voter Registration Statistics - December 2012
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
North G
em
Wes
t Gem
Cen
tral G
em
Yala To
wns
hip
Eas
t Gem
Sou
th G
em
County Assembly Ward
Voter Registration Numbers
County Assembly Ward
Population (Approx.)
Estimated Voting Population
Enrollment at close of Registration
on 18th December 2012
Source: Source: IEBC. (2012). Voter Registration Statistics
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Gem Parliamentary RaceGem Parliamentary Race• There is no front-runner for the seat.
• Likely to be a hot three-horse race.
• Incumbent MP Hon. Washington Jakoyo Midiwo facing stiff competition from two main challengers.
• SDP stamping authority through its candidate Eng. Booker Ng’esa Omole.
• Eng. Booker Omole banking on youth agenda, content and a solid YalaDivision base of 65% of all registered voters in Gem.
• Hon. Jakoyo banking on past development record, but the ODM nomination fears may work against him.
• Candidates fear ODM nominations because they know it is for Jakoyo to lose.
• Former tough-challenger Elisha Ochieng’ Odhiambo not come out in the open to declare interest.
• Independent Candidate, Asuna Oluoch from West Gem is banking on a possible ODM nominations goof.
• Wagai division votes (35%) likely to be split between Hon. Jakoyo and Asuna Oluoch giving Eng. Booker a walkover in Yala Division (65%).
• Asuna Oluoch has a massive grassroots support and likely to beat Jakoyoeven in Jakoyo’s hometuff of South Gem.
• No other serious contenders have declared interest.
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BondoBondo Constituency Constituency -- 11
81.18%59,61773,437157,522
80.32%12,41815,46133,164North Sakwa
93.45%11,02811,80125,313West Sakwa
79.80%10,11512,67527,189Yimbo East
75.83%8,22310,84423,260South Sakwa
84.23%7,8909,36720,093Central Sakwa
74.83%9,94313,28828,503West Yimbo
% age Enrollment at close
of Registration on
18th December 2012
Enrollment at close
of Registration
on 18th
December 2012
Estimated
Voting
Populati
on
County
Assembly
Ward
Population
(Approx.)
County
Assembly
Ward
Name
Source: Source: IEBC. (2012). Voter Registration Statistics
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BondoBondo Constituency Constituency -- 22Bondo Constituency Voter Registration Statistics - December 2012
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
West
Yimbo
Central
Sakwa
South
Sakwa
Yimbo
East
West
Sakwa
North
Sakwa
County Assembly Ward
Voter Registration Numbers
County Assembly Ward
Population (Approx.)
Estimated Voting Population
Enrollment at close of
Registration on 18th December
2012
Source: Source: IEBC. (2012). Voter Registration Statistics
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BondoBondo Parliamentary RaceParliamentary Race
• The front-runner for the seat is Gideon Ochanda, though a late entrant after expressing interest in Governorship.
• Mama Jacinta Maganda was very strong before Ochanda’sentry, BUT may still turn tables.
• Likely to be a free ride for the ODM Candidate.
• Likely to be a two-horse race between Ochanda and Mama Jacinta Maganda.
• Former UN employee and Social Accountability Activist, Joseph Kwaka is being touted as a potential contender for the seat, although he has not come out in the open to declare interest.
• As a last resort, the incumbent, Hon. Oburu Odinga may opt to defend his seat, but would be really HUMILIATING.
• Other aspirants are Cornelius Agutu, Ouma Onyango and Steve Scot.
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RariedaRarieda Constituency Constituency -- 11
80.31%50,37762,731134,558
82.08%10,64512,96927,819West Uyoma
74.30%6,7679,10819,536South Uyoma
77.65%7,6919,90421,245North Uyoma
82.39%12,70315,41833,072West Asembo
81.99%12,57115,33132,886East Asembo
% age Enrollment at close
of Registration on
18th December 2012
Enrollment at close
of Registration
on 18th
December 2012
Estimated
Voting
Populati
on
County
Assembly
Ward
Population
(Approx.)
County
Assembly
Ward
Name
Source: Source: IEBC. (2012). Voter Registration Statistics
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RariedaRarieda Constituency Constituency -- 22
Rarieda Constituency Voter Registration Statistics - December 2012
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
East
Asembo
West
Asembo
North
Uyoma
South
Uyoma
West
Uyoma
County Assembly Ward
Voter Registration Numbers
County Assembly Ward
Population (Approx.)
Estimated Voting Population
Enrollment at close of Registration
on 18th December 2012
Source: Source: IEBC. (2012). Voter Registration Statistics
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RariedaRarieda Parliamentary RaceParliamentary Race
• The front-runner for the seat is incumbent Hon. Eng. Nicholas Gumbo.
• Likely to be a free ride for the ODM Candidate.
• Incumbent has no serious challenger.
• Other contenders are Fred Athuok and Agustino Neto.
• Agustino Neto may boast of age and youth support.
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What Needs to be DoneWhat Needs to be Done
• Racing against time - Choose credible leaders.
• URGENT need for social vetting of candidates.
• Scrutinise manifestos of candidates.
• Address issues rather than personalities.
• Vote for policies rather than party euphoria.
• Not allow oneself to be bought to vote in a candidate.
• Preach peaceful coexistence beyond the election date.
• Ensure free and fair nomination exercise in all the competing parties.
• Be tolerant of divergent opinion and allow opposing candidates to campaign freely.
• Come out in large numbers and VOTE on election day.
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Questions and Answer Session
For further information, get in touch with:
Awuor Ponge
[email protected] ; [email protected]
Mobile Telephone: +254 721 962 660
Thank you for your attention!!!Thank you for your attention!!!