pon and ethernet in ftth networks: incompatible or...
TRANSCRIPT
PON and Ethernet in FTTH Networks:
Incompatible or Complementary?
March 6, 2008 11:30 a.m. ET
Presented bySponsored by
Copyright © 2008 by Infonetics Research, Inc.
Today’s Speakers
Jeff Heynen
Directing Analyst, IPTV and
Next Gen OSS/BSS
Juan J. Vela
Director, Solutions Marketing
and Strategy
Steven Glapa
VP of Marketing and
Product Management
Copyright © 2008 by Infonetics Research, Inc.
Agenda
• Market Trends
• The Bandwidth Dilemma
• Moving Forward with Fiber: Assessing the Solutions
• Deployment Approaches
• Conclusions
• Q&A
Copyright © 2008 by Infonetics Research, Inc.
Agenda
• Market Trends
• The Bandwidth Dilemma
• Moving Forward with Fiber: Assessing the Solutions
• Deployment Approaches
• Conclusions
• Q&A
Copyright © 2008 by Infonetics Research, Inc.
Trends in FTTH Networks
• Video services driving demand for more bandwidth
• ADSL-ADSL2+ won’t satisfy long-term subscriber bandwidth
demands
• Success of FTTH in Japan, Korea, France, and the US plus
component cost reductions are bolstering the FTTH argument
• That said, many providers still on the fence about FTTH
– High initial costs to pass initial set of homes
– Costs to train labor force
– Opex costs associated with maintaining two networks
– Regulatory hurdles: right of way access, video franchising
• Finally, technology arguments still abound, especially between
Ethernet FTTH and PON
– Capex and long-term opex are major concerns
Copyright © 2008 by Infonetics Research, Inc.
FTTH Subscribers by Region
Source: Infonetics Research,PON & FTTH Equipment & Subscribers Market Share & Forecasts
0
10
20
30
40
50
Su
bs
cri
be
rs (
M)
CY04 CY05 CY06 CY07 CY08 CY09 CY10CALA
EMEA
Nor
th A
mer
ica
Asia
Pac
ific
Calendar Year
FTTH Subscribers by Geographic Region
Copyright © 2008 by Infonetics Research, Inc.
Access Network Technologies for
IPTV and Video
37%
47%
53%
0%
21%
5%
11%
5%
26%
21%
16%
5%
79%
26%
37%
42%
53%
21%
74%
0%
16%
16%
16%
26%
32%
37%
0%
11%
16%
21%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80%
FTTH BPON
Cable HFC
WiMAX
FTTH Active
Ethernet
FTTH EPON
FTTNode with
last-mile DSL
FTTCurb with
last-mile DSL
VDSL/VDSL2
FTTH GPON
ADSL2/ADSL2+
Bro
ad
ba
nd
Te
ch
no
log
ies
Percent of Respondents
After 2008
2008
2007
• Both PON and
Ethernet replacing
copper over time
• Multiservice access
networks are the trend
Source: Infonetics Research, Service Provider Plans for IPTV and Video: North America, Europe, Asia Pacific 2007
Copyright © 2008 by Infonetics Research, Inc.
Critical Aspects to Increase
IPTV Subscribers
16%
16%
5%
0%
32%
21%
11%
16%
37%
5%
21%
53%
42%
42%
32%
32%
47%
5%
5%
5%
11%
11%
16%
26%
0% 20% 40% 60%
Fast channel change
User interface
Operational costs
Scalability
VOD applications
Ease of use
EPG services
Interactive applications
Broadcast video
services
Personalization
Exclusive content
Quality of experience
As
pe
cts
Percent of Respondents
2008
2007
• 3 of top 5 responses
depend on service and
policy intelligence in the
access network
• QoE dependent largely
on access network bandwidth
Source: Infonetics Research, Service Provider Plans for IPTV and Video: North America, Europe, Asia Pacific 2007
Copyright © 2008 by Infonetics Research, Inc.
Agenda
• Market Trends
• The Bandwidth Dilemma
• Moving Forward with Fiber: Assessing the Solutions
• Deployment Approaches
• Conclusions
• Q&A
Copyright © 2008 by Infonetics Research, Inc.
Broadband as a
Competitiveness Issue
Source: OECD, April 2007
1
3
5
7
9
11
13
15
17
19
21
23
25
61.0
45.6
21.7
18.2
17.6
8.8
8.1
7.6
7.5
7.4
7.3
6.2
6.0
6.0
4.8
4.6
4.2
3.1
2.6
2.3
2.3
2.2
1.7
1.6
1.2
Japan
Korea
Finland
Sweden
France
Netherlands
Portugal
Canada
Poland
Norway
Austria
Belgium
Iceland
Germany
United States
Denmark
Italy
Luxembourg
United Kingdom
Switzerland
New Zealand
Ireland
Australia
Czech Republic
Spain
Top 25 Average: 10.4
0.51 subscribers/HH
Korea, with
0.9 subs/HH
Average Broadband Subscriber’s Data Rate, MbpsUS Broadband Penetration Rank
Copyright © 2008 by Infonetics Research, Inc.
Subscriber Demand Follows a Trend
Source: Jakob Nielsen
1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
100
1 k
10 k
100 k
1 M
10 M
100 M
1 G
10 G
100 G
R² = 0.97
3/3.5G (EV-DO, HSPA)WiMAX, WiFi
ADSL2+, EFM over CuVDSL2, GPON
WDM
DOCSIS 3.0Active E, WDM-PON
Per-Subscriber Data Rate v. Time (bps)
– Multiple HD streams
– HD VOD
– UGC, OTT
– Telepresence
– Ubiquity
– P2P
– Gaming
– IP transition
– FMC
Copyright © 2008 by Infonetics Research, Inc.
Copper-based Approaches Fall Short
Rate/Reach for Current Cu-based Broadband Access Technologies
25
50
75
100
125
150
175
200 Mbps
Sources: DSL Forum; Zhone testing
VDSL22 bonded pairs
VDSL2
ADSL2+ (2 pr)
EFM (8 pr)
ADSL2+
EFM (1 pr)
0 1.0 2.0 miles0.5 1.5
Copyright © 2008 by Infonetics Research, Inc.
ARPU vs. Bandwidth:
Pipe Economics Are Critical
cellular voice
wireline voice
satellite data
cellular data
wired broadband
on-demand HD
satellite TV
digital cable TV
10¢ $11¢0.1¢0.01¢
Willingness to Pay per Unit of Capacity Consumed
US$/MB
Sources: US commercial network offers circa January, 2008; Zhone analysis
Copyright © 2008 by Infonetics Research, Inc.
1950s 2007+
1990s
Narrowband
TDM Based
• Dedicated copper
• Basic services
• CO based
• Pairgain releif
• CO extensions –
UDLC
• Remote electronics
1980s
“Next Generation” with Broadband Upgrades
Mixed Circuit and Cell Structures
• Voice and data
• Optical SONET and
ATM feeder
• Upgrade for BB
service capacity
• Primarily Cu
infrastructure support
1990s
Broadband Evolved
Pure Packet
• Voice, data and IP video
• Packet-based service delivery
model
• Stackable IP services
• Ubiquitous reach
• Optical access and
aggregation
Evolution of Last Mile Access
COFTTH/B, FTTC, FTTNRT
POTS
SLCNGDLC
MSAP
Copyright © 2008 by Infonetics Research, Inc.
Aggregation and Last Mile Decisions
Network services Aggregation Last mile
Class 5
Softswitch
Internet
PSTN
RF video headend
Media gateway
Business / government:SMB, MTU, large enterprise
Residential: SFR, MDU
POTS
VoIP
RF broadcast video
IP HDTV on demand
Web
Virtual worlds & gaming
Video networ
k DS0 voice
VoIPVideo conferencing
10/100
GigE
Travel
Cellular networ
k
Subscriber premises
?
Copyright © 2008 by Infonetics Research, Inc.
Agenda
• Market Trends
• The Bandwidth Dilemma
• Moving Forward with Fiber: Assessing the Solutions
• Deployment Approaches
• Conclusions
• Q&A
Copyright © 2008 by Infonetics Research, Inc.
Fiber Provides a Path Forward
Rate/Reach for Fiber-based Broadband Access Technologies
Sources: DSL Forum; Zhone testing.
0 2
100
200VDSL22 bonded pairs
VDSL2
ADSL2+ (2 pr)EFM (8 pr)
ADSL2+EFM (1 pr)
1,000 Mbps
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
~50 miles4 6 8
GPON (2.5 G split 32 ways)
Active Ethernet (Dedicated fiber)
WDM-PON (10 G split 32 ways)
Copyright © 2008 by Infonetics Research, Inc.
Four Common Fiber Access
Scenarios to Assess
Copyright © 2008 by Infonetics Research, Inc.
FTTx Cost Comparison
27
651
327
233
143
1,121
1,798
2,593
1,798
1,776
AE FTTN +VDSL2
ActiveEthernetFTTP
WDM-PON,CO Split*
GPON,CO Split
GPON,Field Split
9.87
18.20
20.40
15.47
14.34
CO OSP
Capex per Subscriber, $ Opex per Subscriber-Month, $
1,150
2,450
2,920
2,030
1,920
Total:
Depreciation
Total:
CO OpsOSP Maint.
*Rough estimates!Sources: Various industry/customer benchmarks; Zhone analysis
Copyright © 2008 by Infonetics Research, Inc.
FTTx Costs vs. Data Rate
AE FTTN +VDSL2
ActiveEthernetFTTP
WDM-PON,CO Split*
GPON,CO Split
GPON,Field Split
Capex per Subscriber, $/Mbps Opex per Subscriber-Month, $/Mbps
*Rough estimates!Sources: Various industry/customer benchmarks; Zhone analysis
14
2
9
26
25
0.12
0.02
0.07
0.20
0.18
Copyright © 2008 by Infonetics Research, Inc.
GPON Benefits
Network services Aggregation Last mile
Class 5
Softswitch
PSTN
RF video headend
1 – 10 GbRing
GPON fiber
Copper DSL
Copper POTS
Residential: SFR, MDU, SMB
POTS
VoIP
RF broadcast video
IP HDTV on demand
Web
Virtual worlds & gaming
IPTV Networ
k
Cellular Networ
k
Subscriber premises
EDFA
• RF Overlay
• Residential MDU
• Dense Urban Distribution
• Predictable BW Requirements
• Natural Option for Planned Growth
Internet
Router
Copyright © 2008 by Infonetics Research, Inc.
P2P Benefits
• Residential Overbuilds and Business Ethernet
• Media Distribution for MDU/MTU
• Slow or Incremental Growth Rates
• Unpredictable BW Requirements
• Natural Option for Unexpected Growth
Bandwidth
• From 1M to 1000Mbps
• Granular BW Management
• Complements GPON for ‘Super Users’
Network Location
• CO/POP
• OSP Terminals
• Equipment Closets
• Pole/Pedestal
• Customer Premise
Applications
• IPTV
• MEF Services
• VoIP, POTS
• Media Conversion
• TLS / VPNs
• Extended Reach
Copyright © 2008 by Infonetics Research, Inc.
Simplified Service Management
Class 5
Softswitch
Internet
PSTN
RF video headend
Media gateway
Video networ
k
Cellular networ
k
Network services Aggregation Last mile Subscriber premises
Media Independence
N:1 Service Model
Copyright © 2008 by Infonetics Research, Inc.
RT Home / BusinessWAN / Metro / CO
FTTN
FTTP
n x 10Gb
Backhaul
Curb
MSAP
MSAP
Complementary Deployment Options
P2P Ethernet
GPON
Copyright © 2008 by Infonetics Research, Inc.
Agenda
• Market Trends
• The Bandwidth Dilemma
• Moving Forward with Fiber: Assessing the Solutions
• Deployment Approaches
• Conclusions
• Q&A
Copyright © 2008 by Infonetics Research, Inc.
Zhone Access Solutions
• Industry’s broadest portfolio of truly
integrated multi-service access
solutions
– All current access technologies
– Copper, fiber, or both
– Extensive legacy interface support
– Scalable to 10G
– One software architecture,
one EMS, one OSS interface
– Sophisticated access service
enablement features
(e.g., QoS, IP SLA, rate shaping,
IGMP snooping)
– Higher versatility, flexibility, efficiency
• 600+ service providers worldwide
Copyright © 2008 by Infonetics Research, Inc.
Zhone Complete FTTx Solutions
• zNID Intelligent FTTH Gateway for GPON or AE
– Radically simplified provisioning and management
– Advanced QoS — The only gateway to deliver Layer 3 intelligence
– Remote Management — DSL Forum Standard TR-069 server, OMCI,
SNMP or HTTP
– Resilient thermal enclosure — add electronics on service demand
– No new wiring HPNAv3 over coax and phone lines
– Integrated power source via home’s phone line
– Premium voice, video, data
– Complemented by indoor unit options
• MALC Integrated Multi-Service GPON and AE Platform
– Smooth migration, low-cost entry for MSAP-architecture networks
– Line card upgrades — rapid deployment for first-to-market services
– Integrated system approach, streamlines inventories and operations
• Bitstorm VDSL2 for FTTN
– 100 Mbps symmetric performance
– Cost-effective, temperature-hardened 1U form factor for remote installation
Copyright © 2008 by Infonetics Research, Inc.
Occam High Definition AccessTM
Powerful Access ConvergenceNetwork services Aggregation Last mile
Class 5
Softswitch
Internet
PSTN
RF video headend
Media gateway
1Gbring
10Gbring GPON fiber
Copper DSL
Copper POTS
Business / government:SMB, MTU, large enterprise
Residential: SFR, MDU
POTS
VoIP
RF broadcast video
IP HDTV on demand
Web
Virtual worlds & gaming
Video networ
k DS0 voice
VoIPVideo conferencing
10/100
GigE
Travel
Cellular networ
k
Subscriber premises
1G Pt-Pt fiber
EDFA
Copyright © 2008 by Infonetics Research, Inc.
• Residential and Business service convergence over
comprehensive Carrier Ethernet access solutions
– Complementary P2P and GPON FTTx Solutions
– Common service management models
• Unmatched flexibility in simple, cost competitive
platforms that scale from 64kbps to 10GigE
• Leverage Ethernet over Any Media to deliver Any
Service Anywhere
• Standards Simplified….
– MEF defined E-LINE and E-LAN services
– DSL Forum and Broadband Suite defined residential services
Occam Networks
Simplifying FTTx Access
Copyright © 2008 by Infonetics Research, Inc.
Agenda
• Market Trends
• The Bandwidth Dilemma
• Moving Forward with Fiber: Assessing the Solutions
• Deployment Approaches
• Conclusions
• Q&A
Copyright © 2008 by Infonetics Research, Inc.
The Right FTTP Choice
Attribute P2P GPON Notes
Bandwidth 75-150M* P2P most future proof
Deployment Flexibility P2P scales low to high
RF Overlay PON best for existing RF
OAM & Maturity 802.3ah widely used
OSP Simplicity P2P = 1 to 1
Feeder Relief PON minimizes feeder
Urban Residential PON built for density
Rural & Business P2P allows for precision
Economic Cents PON saves CAPEX
Power and Management PON minimizes fiber mgmt
Copyright © 2008 by Infonetics Research, Inc.
The Right Wireline Access
• It all depends...
– Investment time horizon
– Service definition
– Customer segment needs
– Asset initial conditions
• Choosing
– Equipment flexibility, versatility for network evolution
and heterogeneity
– Do the math, with some good help
GPON AE FTTP
AE FTTN
+ VDSL2
ADSL2+
Bonding
Medium Long Medium Short
Tomorrow Long-term Tomorrow Today
Residential Res + Biz Residential Res + Biz
None None Plentiful Cu Plentiful Cu
Copyright © 2008 by Infonetics Research, Inc.
Q&A
Jeff Heynen
Directing Analyst, IPTV and
Next Gen OSS/BSS
Juan J. Vela
Director, Solutions Marketing
and Strategy
Steven Glapa
VP of Marketing and
Product Management