political smackdown senate and gubernatorial candidates battle it out on social media

Political Smackdown: Senate and Gubernatorial Candidates Battle It Out on Social Media

Presented By: Jim Reynolds [email protected]

twitter.com/jimmyrey

mailto:[email protected]

mailto:[email protected]

Setup Senate Candidates from IL, CA, FL, DE, CT, KY, LA, NV, OH & PA Gubernatorial Candidates from AZ, CA, CO, FL, IL, MA, TX, PA & NY Categories

State Race (Senate or Governor) Party Affiliation (Independent, Republican or Democrat)

Election 2010 – Senate & Gubernatorial Races

Analysis 560K social media

mentions of candidates since 3rd week of September

Volume steadily increasing leading up to elections

Conversation follows a weekly trend with decrease in chatter on weekends



Analysis Microblogs – 36%

Social Networks –

20%

Media Types – Other (Mainstream media) – 19.3%

Message boards – 18.8%

All Other Types –

Less than 10%

Analysis: Microblog (Twitter) & Social Network (Facebook et al) mentions follow identical patterns Message Board / Forum has picked up volume significantly leading up to the election


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christine o'donnell

harry reid

sharron angle

rand paul

barbara boxer

chris coons

carly fiorina

charlie crist

linda mcmahon

jack conway

marco rubio

joe sestak

mark kirk

pat toomey

kendrick meek

richard blumenthal

Alexi giannoulias

david vitter

lee fisher

rob portman

charlie melancon

Election 2010 – Senate Races

Analysis: Christine O’Donnell has had over 100K mentions since mid-September Harry Reid & Sharron Angle, both Senatorial candidates from Nevada rank 2nd & 3rd, respectively Overall, the Republicans lead the conversation largely because of Christine O’Donnell (DE)

Democrat 35%

Independent 4%

Republican 61%

Number of Mentions Chart

Percentage of Conversation

0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 60000 70000 80000

meg whitman

jerry brown

carl paladino

rick perry

rick scott

andrew cuomo

bill white

jan brewer

alex sink

tom tancredo

deval patrick

pat quinn

bill brady

tim cahill

tom emmer

charlie baker

tom corbett

dan maes

mark dayton

terry goddard

dan onorato

john hickenlooper

tom horner

scott cohen

Democrat 40%

Independent 5%

Republican 55%

Election 2010 – Gubernatorial Races

Analysis Meg Whitman is the second most talked about candidate overall (after Christine O’Donnell) Gubernatorial races in California, New York & Texas are most discussed In the Senate races, there is more conversation about Republicans but not by a large margin



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Delaware

Nevada

Kentucky

California

Florida

Connecticut

Pennsylvania

Illinois

Louisiana

Ohio

Election 2010 – Senate Races

Analysis

Delaware is the most talked about Senate Race since mid-September due largely to Christine O’Donnell

Interestingly, Nevada & Kentucky both beat California

Ohio’s Senate race is the least discussed on social media

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California

New York

Texas

Florida

Massachusetts

Arizona

Colorado

Illinois

Minnesota

Pennsylvania

Election 2010 – Gubernatorial Races

Analysis

Unlike the CA Senate race, the Gubernatorial race in California is more frequently discussed than the races in NY & TX combined

New York’s race has had a major increase recently due to a controversial Carl Paladino

Surprisingly, Pennsylvania ‘s Senate race is in last place

Election 2010 – Top 5 Senate Races

Nevada: Sharron Angle Harry Reid

Kentucky: Rand Paul

Jack Conway

California: Carly Fiorina

Barbara Boxer

Delaware: Chris Coons Christine O’Donnell

Florida: Kendrick Meek Marco Rubio Charlie Crist

0

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400

600

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1400

barbara boxer

carly fiorina

57%

43%

89.64%

90.56%

California Senate Race

Analysis

Barbara Boxer leads Carly Fiorina in favorability*

The volume of conversation around Boxer and Fiorina is roughly the same, but their favorability ratings differ

This race appears to be leaning towards the incumbent Boxer

* Favorability is measured by diving

the sum of positive and neutral mentions by the sum of positive, neutral and negative mentions

0.00%

20.00%

40.00%

60.00%

80.00%

100.00%

120.00%

Carly Fiorina vs. Barbara Boxer Favorability Chart


Average percent of posts


44%

37%

19%

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

marco rubio

kendrick meek

charlie crist

0.00%

20.00%

40.00%

60.00%

80.00%

100.00%

120.00%

Marco Rubio vs. Kendrick Meek vs. Charlie Crist

Florida Senate Race

Analysis Kendrick Meek

leads all candidates in favorability while Charlie Crist is last

Interestingly, Crist has the largest volume of conversation while Meek has the least

The volume would suggest that the race is between Rubio & Crist

91.75%

92.85%

89.76% Favorability Chart




0.00%

20.00%

40.00%

60.00%

80.00%

100.00%

120.00%

Christine O'Donnell vs. Chris Coons

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1000

2000

3000

4000

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6000

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10000

christine o'donnell

chris coons

84%

16%

86.84%

88.47%

Delaware Senate Race

Analysis Chris Coons has a

slight advantage over Christine O’Donnell in terms of favorability *

O’Donnell dominates the conversation with 84% of the total posts

This race is leaning toward Chris Coons

*Negative commentary is tied to O’Donnell

Favorability Chart




0.00%

20.00%

40.00%

60.00%

80.00%

100.00%

120.00%

Rand Paul vs. Jack Conway

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

rand paul

jack conaway

74%

26%

87.05%

83.62%

Kentucky Senate Race

Analysis Jack Conway has a

4% favorability lead to Rand Paul

Rand Paul owns 74% of the conversation vs. 26% by Jack Conway

If Rand Paul continues to trend upward in favorability he could win the race.

Favorability Chart




0.00%

20.00%

40.00%

60.00%

80.00%

100.00%

120.00%

Sharron Angle vs. Harry Reid

sharron angle harry reid

0

500

1000

1500

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3000

3500

4000

4500

sharon angle

harry reid

57%

43%

86.61%

87.99%

Nevada Senate Race

Analysis Harry Reid leads

Sharron Angle in favorability

Harry Reid also has a 14% lead in volume of conversation

This race looks very good for Harry Reid

Favorability Chart




Election 2010 – Top 5 Gubernatorial Races

Massachusetts: Tim Cahill

Deval Patrick Charlie Baker

Texas:

Rick Perry Bill White

Florida:

Rick Scott Alex Sink

California: Jerry Brown Meg Whitman

New York: Andrew Cuomo Carl Paladino

0.00%10.00%20.00%30.00%40.00%50.00%60.00%70.00%80.00%90.00%

100.00%

Meg Whitman vs. Jerry Brown

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

meg whitman

jerry brown

55%

45%

85.05%

87.39%

California Gubernatorial Race

Analysis

Jerry Brown leads Meg Whitman in favorability

Whitman is beating Brown by 5% in volume of conversation

This is one of the most challenging races to predict

Favorability Chart




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1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

carl paladino

andrew cuomo

0.00%10.00%20.00%30.00%40.00%50.00%60.00%70.00%80.00%90.00%

100.00%

Andrew Cuomo vs. Carl Paladino

55%

45%

85.21%

88.81%

New York Gubernatorial Race

Analysis

Andrew Cuomo leads Carl Paladino by more than 3% in favorability

Paladino leads Cuomo by 10% in volume of conversation, due largely to a recent spike

This race appears to be in favor of Cuomo

Favorability Chart




0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

rick perry

bill white

0.00%

20.00%

40.00%

60.00%

80.00%

100.00%

120.00%

Rick Perry vs. Bill White

58%

42%

90.53%

91.49%

Texas Gubernatorial Race

Analysis

Bill White has a slight advantage over Rick Perry in favorability

Perry has a 16% lead over Bill White in chatter

It appears that Democrat White has a chance in the Texas race

Favorability Chart




0.00%

20.00%

40.00%

60.00%

80.00%

100.00%

120.00%

Rick Scott vs. Alex Sink

0

200

400

600

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1200

rick scott

alex sink

64%

36%

90.68%

91.17%

Florida Gubernatorial Race

Analysis

Alex Sink has a slight .6% lead over Rick Scott in favorability

Rick Scott racks up nearly 30% more conversations than Alex Sink

This race appears to be in Rick Scott’s favor

Favorability Chart




0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

charlie baker

deval patrick

tim cahill

0.00%

20.00%

40.00%

60.00%

80.00%

100.00%

120.00%

Charlie Barker vs. Deval Patrick vs. Tim Cahill

43%

30%

27%

92.30%

93.07%

91.11%

Massachusetts Gubernatorial Race

Analysis

Deval Patrick leads in favorability over the other 2 candidates but is followed closely by Charlie Barker & Tim Cahill

Deval Patrick is in the lead with volume of conversation as well

This race seems to be in Patrick’s favor

Favorability Chart




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