political importance and arm imports anirudha vaddadi & josi sinagoga
TRANSCRIPT
Armed & DangerousPolitical Importance and Arm Imports
Anirudha Vaddadi & Josi Sinagoga
Introduction
Inspiration Literature▪ Kuziemko, Illyana, and Erik Werker. “How Much is a
Seat on the Security Council Worth? Foreign Aid and Bribery at the United Nations”. Journal of Political Economy 114, no. 5 (October 2006): 905-930
▪ Dreher, Axel., Jan-Egbert Sturm, and James Raymond Vreeland. “Global horse trading: IMF loans for votes in the United Nations Security Council”. European Economic Review 53, no. 7 (October 2009): 742-757
Research Question
Variables Independent: UNSC non-permanent
membership (dichotomous) Dependent: volume of arms imports,
measured by Trend-Indicator Value (TIV) The Question:
Does political importance increase arms imports to a given country?
Our Hypothesis: Positive relationship between arms imports
and political importance.
Methodology
Data Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
(SIPRI) World Bank Vreeland, James Raymond, and Axel Dreher. Money and
Politics on the International Stage: The Political Economy of the United Nations Security Council: Money and Influence. New York, NY: Cambridge UP, 2014. Print.
World Data vs. Top Exporter Data Regressions
Linear Country-fixed Effects
Graphs
Not on the UNSC On the UNSC 0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
Effect of UNSC membership on volume of arms imports
SIPRI Trend Indicator
Value (TIV)(Measured in millions)
Graphs, contd.
USA Germany UK China
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Effect of UNSC Membership on Arms Imports, by Country of Origin
Not on the UNSCOn the UNSC
Country of Origin
SIPRI TIV
Results
Confounding Variables:▪ Population▪ GDP ▪ GDP per capita▪ War
Origin-specific Results▪ Germany▪ UK
Results, contd.
Country of Origin
All countri
esUSA Germa
ny France UK Italy
Recipient
Countries
Hungary
✔ ✔
Italy ✔ ✔
Jordan ✔ ✔ ✔
New Zealan
d
✔ ✔ ✔
South Africa
✔ ✔ ✔
Sweden ✔ ✔ ✔
Conclusion (if we have one)
Story for the Results The Take-Away