policy note: landscapes and resiliency in rural...
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POLICY NOTE: LANDSCAPES AND RESILIENCY IN RURAL YEMEN1
This policy note describes the analysis and offers policy recommendations of the findings of the
Rural Landscapes and Resiliency study, a component of the Yemen Rural Development Agenda
Economic and Sector Work (ESW). The objective of this study was to refocus policy makers and
other stakeholders on the importance, needs and potential for the development of Yemen’s
neglected, rain-fed rural areas which account for approximately 70 percent of Yemen’s
agriculture. Rain-fed areas include rural populations with deep poverty pockets, are the most
vulnerable to climate change, and are critical to social and political stability particularly
among the chronic poor, the disenfranchised and unemployed youth. A particular feature of
rain-fed areas is the increased marginalization of certain groups such as women, despite being
the main actors in rain-fed production activities. The rain-fed agricultural areas of Yemen have
experienced dramatic social and bio-physical changes over time, adversely impacting
livelihood and increasing vulnerability under limited coping mechanisms. As a result, rain-fed
communities lack the necessary resilience for withstanding bio-physical shocks (such as reduced
rain water) from climate change. Suggested policy recommendations include strengthening
formal and informal rural institutions for natural resource management, increasing support for
the production of cash crops as alternatives to, and supporting off-farm income generating
activities in rain-fed areas.
1 This policy note was prepared as part of analytical work on “Scaling Up Rural Development in Yemen,” an
Economic and Sector Work (ESW) study carried out by the World Bank, along with other background papers on
rural institutions, rural investment, and rural public expenditure. The team members who contributed to this policy
note are: Hanane Ahmed ([email protected]) and Erick C.M. Fernandes ([email protected]), both
from the World Bank, Jeffrey Richie from the University of Washington ([email protected]), and Ahmed
Al-Wadaey from the Sana’a University. In the World Bank office in Sana’a, Naif Abu-Lohom provided technical
guidance, Fowzia Yahya Musleh Al-Qobi, and Nabila Al-Mutawakel provided support to the team during their
mission to Sana’a. Kwaw Andam ([email protected]) was the Task Team Leader for the ESW study. The
ESW was carried out under the guidance of Steven N. Schonberger, sector manager for water and agriculture in the
World Bank’s Middle East and North Africa Region. The study has benefited from information and ideas from
government officials, academia, and NGOs in Yemen, and from other members of the study team. Ideas in the paper
are offered as information and analysis for consideration, and do not represent the official policy or
recommendations of the World Bank or any other organization.
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A. THE APPROACH
Since rain-fed agriculture is a farming system
reliant on rainfall for water, understanding the
causes of vulnerability and sources of
resilience in rain-fed rural areas requires
linking the understanding of the socio-
economic context to the “landscape” which
determines livelihood opportunities and
vulnerability to rainfall shocks. This approach
is key since resilience in the rain-fed areas is
determined by how households and
communities engage with their biophysical
environment to support their livelihoods, and
how they are able to adjust to changes which
come from either the social (population growth,
intra and inter-migration) or the biophysical
(land degradation, climate change) contexts.
Therefore, the challenge was to develop and
examine information that would summarize
individual community responses to the
environment across the rain-fed agriculture
regions of Yemen. How does the physical
environment set the stage for the communities?
The next section describes the tasks undertaken
to answer this question, followed by a section
assessing the socio-economic context of the
study area.
B. RAIN-FED LANDSCAPES ANALYSIS
Descriptions of the environment can be
thought of as a “sandwich,” of multiple layers
of information, each representing a key part of
the landscape. Layers include the physical relief
(the topography), soils (their types and
ultimately properties), vegetation (land-use and
land-use change), and finally water resources.
Superimposed on this physical world, then, are
the communities that live there, and their
economic and social attributes. There were 7
tasks involved in describing the bio-physical
environment of rain-fed areas.
Task 1: Delineation of the Study Area
Six sites within the Sana’a basin were selected
for this study2. The Sana’a basin (the basin is
defined as the drainage basin, meaning that rain
falling in the basin flows to a common drainage
point and to, for example, the next basin over)
is a region already suffering from extreme
water stress both in terms of rain water and
groundwater reserves. Climate models predict
that this scenario is going to further deteriorate
under the impacts of climate change
(decreasing rainfall and increasing
temperature). With a population growth rate of
seven percent, and extensive pumping for
irrigation, Sana’a’s water sources are being
rapidly depleted. This creates important
implications for water resource demand and
management.
Figures 1 and 2 delineate the focus areas of the
study.
Figure 1: Delineation of the regional scale (western
Yemen), in red line. The Sana’a basin is shown, in
black outline
The focus area of the study was the Sana’a basin: Bani Matar,
Bani Al-Hareth, Amaran, Bani Hushaish, Manakhah, Hamdan.
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Figure 2: Image of the 6 study sites
Task 2: Digital Elevation Model
A Digital Elevation Model (DEM) establishes
the topography of the Sana’a basin. This
describes the “physical structure” of a region
(Sana’a basin) i.e. what the elevation and slope
gradients are, where drainage patterns
culminating in river networks are, etc. When
more local data of higher resolution becomes
available, the topography of the Sana’a basin
will be accurately established.
Figure 3: Topography of Sana’a basin
Task 3: Develop a Soils Map
Soil maps include not only the “names” of
soils, but, more importantly, the properties of
the soil (depth, texture, chemical composition). At the regional scale, global data sources for
soils showed little differentiation across the
region. At the scale of the Sana’a basin, two
different classifications (Russian and American
classification schemes) presented a more refined
view of the basin. Interestingly, there are
considerable differences between the two
classifications depending on the interpretation
of the soil names. Further conclusions can be
drawn when more data in digital format with
higher resolution becomes available.
Task 4: Develop maps of Land-use and Land-
Use Change (LU/LUC)
How land is used (LU) relative to what is
available is a key determinant of rural
livelihoods. Evaluating what current land use is
provides the baseline of what current conditions
are. How that use changes over time (LUC)
establishes how the landscape has evolved, with
insight for the future. This was done for years
2000, 2005, 2010, and 2013.
Regional vegetation patterns (from the MODIS
satellite) clearly show how focused vegetation is
on the highlands. The patterns suggest that most
of the eastern and northern parts of the
highlands are open shrub-lands and
cropland/natural vegetation mosaics. More
purely croplands are present on the western
slope. The Sana’a basin is at the transition,
sloping from the more vegetated highlands
down to the more barren lowlands (see Figure
4).
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Figure 4: Land cover classes for Western region and
Sana’a basin
In addition, the more western part of the area
has considerable rain-fed crops/natural
vegetation. To the north/northwest is vegetation
that is mostly qat combined with irrigated mixed
crops (local knowledge is important to
distinguish between the two). To the
central/east is more grape production, mixed
further east with qat/mixed (see Figure 5).
Figure 5: Preliminary vegetation classification in the 6
study sites
The next question is how has this mix of
vegetation evolved over time? To examine this
question, a Landsat satellite image from March
3, 2003 was classified in the same way, and the
difference examined (“Land-use change”).
Results, while highly preliminary, are
intriguing. Overall, there is a quite substantial
change in the land-use patterns. The extent of
grapes appears to be less. Rain-fed crops may
have increased, relative to grapes. The most
pronounced change is an increase in qat/mixed
irrigated agriculture (see Figure 6).
Figure 6: Land-use change in the 6 study sites
More refined image analysis is needed.
However, the available data suggests that there
has been a significant evolution in the landscape
of the Sana’a basin over the last 11 years.
Task 5: Regional Climatology (1948-2010)
The next issue was to examine patterns in the
climatology of the region; that is, the rainfall
(P), daily maximum temperature (Tmax), and
daily minimum temperature (Tmin), covering
the period 1948-2010. Over the period of
record, precipitation showed pronounced
phases. From 1948 to about 1970, annual
rainfall was highly variable, with an average of
471 mm/year, with standard deviation of 247
mm/yr (see Figure 7). During high rainfall
years, rainfall was in the 600-800 mm/yr range.
From 1970 on, average rainfall decreased to
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311 mm/yr, with a standard deviation of 98
mm/yr. High rainfall years would serve to
replenish ground water reserves.
Figure 7: Mean yearly records (1945-2015)
Figure 8: Mean yearly minimum and maximum
temperatures
Both minimum and maximum temperature
showed a statistically significant increase over
the period of record (see Figure 8).
The combination of decreased rainfall and
increased temperature adds further stress to the
water cycle of the basin.
Task 6: Changes in Total Water Storage
Closely related to rainfall patterns is the
“change in total water storage” across the
region. With information from the GRACE
(Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment)
satellite, 2003-2013, clear seasonal patterns in
storage were seen, corresponding to the
precipitation regime. There has possibly been
a gradual reduction in overall storage over the
period of record (see Figure 9). Given the
large errors associated with a very small signal,
it is too early to make significant statements
about these trends, but results are suggestive.
Figure 9: Terrestrial Water Storage
Task 7: Dynamic Information Framework
(DIF) web-site
The Dynamic Information Framework (DIF)
was developed as a decision support system
using available datasets. This a user-friendly
web-site which: i) represents and provides
ready access to the data gathered and results to
a broad audience, and ii) to provide relevant
information for future rural and urban planning
by considering the entire landscape.
Information from landscapes analysis rapidly
accumulates. The information generated from
the six tasks was uploaded into the DIF web-
site, and can be updated as further data
becomes available. This kind of information
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allows planners to consider the entire landscape
rather than a segment of it when undertaking
planning/development activities. Having a top-
down view of the landscape under analysis
provides important insights about interactions
among different elements of the natural
resource base which is useful for their long-
term sustainability.
The Center for Environmental Visualization
(CEV) at the University of Washington has set
up an interactive Yemen Dynamic Information
(DIF) web-site. Ultimately, the objective is for
the DIF web-site to be hosted by the Ministry
of Planning and International Cooperation.
Subsequently, the MOPIC will maintain, and
update the site as yearly data on the different
biophysical layers become available.
The web-site can be viewed at:
http://test3.ocean.washington.edu/ Figure 10: Yemen DIF Website
C. SOCIO-ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT
This section of the policy note describes how
rural rain-fed communities in the Sana’a
basin have coped with the bio-physical changes
of their environment (described in the
preceding section), in addition to the social
changes (population growth, and migration) in
pursuit of their livelihoods. The coping
mechanisms as reflected in strategies
determine how resilient these communities are
to the changes.
Understanding how the rural communities
adapted to the bio-physical and socio-economic
changes over time to reduce their vulnerability,
thereby, enhancing their resilience requires
descriptive panel information for rural
households both at the household and farm
levels captured through household surveys.
While this type of information is not readily
available for Yemen, this policy note offers
brief static descriptive background on rain-fed
communities in the rural Sana’a region3. This
was done using the 2005-2006 Yemen
Household Budget Survey (HBS)4. As a second
best approach and complementing this effort,
qualitative description is provided of the
communities in the rural Sana’a region in
terms of how they adapted to the bio-physical
and socio-economic pressure. The qualitative
description is followed by the main findings
and policy recommendations.
The aforementioned data constraints on lack
of available up-to-date household survey
information limits the establishment of
linkages between changes in the biophysical
environment and how the communities until
the recent years have managed to adopt to
3 The 2005-2006 HBS does not capture the Sana’a
basin area. Therefore, the descriptive statistics are
based on information on the Sana’a region (rural).
4 Ideally, information from a follow-up survey would
have been useful to analyze changes in household
behavior from bio-physical and social changes. The
2013-2014 Yemen Household Budget Survey (HBS)
is currently ongoing, and is expected to be available
by the end of 2013/early 2014. While this HBS
captures a variable which identifies whether
households rely on rain for water as a source of
irrigation, concerns exist about the quality of data
entry and consistency of questions captured in the
survey questionnaire and in the actual database.
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these changes. As a result of this limitation,
qualitative information has been used to
provide an overall picture of the socio-
economic changes over time. Currently a
survey is being undertaken (Yemen Household
Budget Survey 2013/2014) which is an update
of the 2005/2006 HBS. There is potential to
update the socio-economic assessment once the
survey data becomes available.
Additional constraints which have limited
establishment of linkages between the
biophysical and socio-economic sections
involved the lack of opportunity to undertake
field work due to security concerns in Yemen.
i) Descriptive Background
According to the 2005-2006 Yemen Household
Budget Survey, the poverty incidence in the
overall Sana’a region was 28% and nearly 10%
were food insecure.
Out of the 4,527 Yemeni households captured in
the agriculture section of the HBS, nearly 68%
rely on rain water as a source of irrigation, and
25% rely on wells for water. In the rural Sana’a
region, 56% and 39% of the households in rural
Sana’a region rely on rain and wells
respectively for irrigating their lands. In
addition, 91% of households in rain-fed rural
Sana’a region engaged in livestock activities,
and 15% have enterprises. As for the type of
land ownership, 48% of rain-fed lands are
owned, and 39% are share-cropped in.
The majority of the household heads in rain-fed
rural Sana’a region are illiterate (84%) and only
1% are female headed households, while the
percentage of female headed households in the
rain-fed areas in rural Yemen is 6%. Even
though women are central agents in the rain-fed
areas, estimates on percentage of female headed
households may not reveal this fact, due to for
example the definition that may have been used
in the survey to classify a household member as
a household head.
As for source of income during the past 12
months (of the survey year) in the rain-fed rural
Sana’a region, qat production and sales is a
primary mean of deriving agriculture income.
According to the 2005-2006 HBS, income
proceeds from the sale of qat averaged 193,503
Yemeni Riyals relative to sales from non-qat
crops amounting to 10,366 Yemeni Riyals.
While income from qat sales contributed
substantially to the overall household income,
the households seemed to have also relied on
alternative source of income for diversifying
their livelihood strategies. According to the
2005-2006 HBS, on average households in the
rural Sana’a region received 3,932 Yemeni
riyals from their retirement payment income,
2160 riyals from the Social Welfare Fund, and
2,628 riyals from remittances. Remittance
income is a vital source of livelihood support to
households in rain-fed areas but the question
remains about its sustainability with increased
limitations of migration opportunities.
According to the 2005-2006 HBS, households
in the rural rain-fed Sana’a region have obtained
loans for several reasons. The most cited reason
is borrowing to meet household’s consumption
needs and this was the response of 57% of the
households, followed by borrowing for
ceremonials such as weddings, funerals, etc…
(28%) and 27% of the households cited
borrowing to meet emergency needs. The
sources of the loans are diverse but the majority
of the rural rain-fed households in the Sana’a
region (73%) borrowed from friends/neighbors.
Overall, while income from the sales of qat is
the primary source of livelihood in the rain-fed
communities of the rural Sana’a region,
alternative sources of income as indicated are
also important. However, given constraints in
water availability for crop production including
qat fiscal constraints, and limits on migration,
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the coping mechanisms for increasing resilience
against bio-physical and socio-economic
changes may not be sustainable potentially
leaving rain-fed communities vulnerable.
ii) Study Site Characteristics
The study site characteristics relate to sites in
the Sana’a basin.
Specifically, in the Bani Matar site, almond is
recognized as a strategic crop. It is considered a
drought tolerant cop and grows in areas low
rainfall amounts (150-400 mm). However,
during the flowering and fruiting stage, water
availability becomes crucial. Communities view
this crop as a substitute for the qat production
which is a promising source of income for
farmers in Bani-Matar.
In the Bani Hushaish site, 35% of the
cultivated area is used for grapes production,
30% for vegetables, and 35% for qat production.
In this area, poor living standards of local
people led many owners and users of wells to
look for other income sources through selling
water to others. This was the situation before the
initiative to prevent selling water was
introduced.
In the Bani Al-Hareth site, key crops produced
include coffee, almond, and qat. The challenges
facing this area include the wastewater and
drainage system from the capital being directed
to Bani Al-Hareth. Therefore, the community
continues to face challenges from biological and
chemical contamination, which can significantly
affect rural landscape development.
In the Manakhah site, this area is famous for
planting coffee as a valuable source of income.
However, recently qat is grown as much as
coffee is, and competes with vegetable crops as
well. Land degradation is present in the terraced
farms especially during the rainy season.
Helping the farmers in adopting optimal land
and water management practices will
significantly raise income and reduce poverty.
In the Amran site, this area has the highest level
of poverty in both rural and urban Amran. In
Amran governorate, farming is the main source
of income after livestock production. The
governorate which is considered agriculturally
fertile, meets a major share of the country’s
agricultural needs. Most farmers in the
governorate practice subsistence farming of
maize, wheat, millet and vegetables. However,
the series of conflicts in the area in recent
previous years had a severe impact on the
agricultural sector. Farmers were hard hit as the
agricultural cycle was interrupted, inflation
soared, and public services deteriorated and
became unreliable. With the aim of improving
farming practices, the Yemeni government took
the step some time ago of setting up agricultural
research farms in different parts of the country.
In the Amran governorate, for example, an
agriculture research station was set up to
introduce improved varieties of grains and
fruits, and to help local farmers adopt new
technologies.
iii) Main Findings
(a)With regard to the social changes of the
Sana’a basin over time, the abandonment of
agricultural land is a phenomenon mostly
driven by socio-economic factors such as
immigration into areas where new economic
opportunities are offered to rural people. Ecological drivers such as elevation and land
mismanagement (biophysical factors) leading to
soil erosion and reduced soil fertility are of
secondary importance. However, water remains
the central constraint for the agriculture of the
basin.
(b) Poverty is relevant in the Sana’a basin. The
poverty rate is considered relatively high
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according to the poverty map prepared by the
World Food Program (WFP) and the World
Bank. The poverty rate ranges between 25.8%-
35%. However, this percentage is expected to
increase due to increased limitation over time in
opportunities for on-farm and off-farm income
generating activities.
(c)Poverty is not directly related to rain-fed
areas alone. However, rain-fed agriculture that
takes place in most parts of Yemen needs to be
supported more strongly, as the option is either
supporting low levels of production or
desertification. Also the continuous
demographic pressures in terms of population
growth will further exacerbate the situation and
undermine most of the efforts exerted to
alleviate poverty. This will be reflected in the
high rates of poverty and widespread
malnutrition, especially with the serious
challenges the government is facing in covering
educational, health and infrastructure services
provision.
(d)Livelihood strategies are diverse but
vulnerable leading to weaker resilience in the
context of limited coping strategies. Rain-fed
households typically own a few small ruminants
(usually from 5-10), in addition to shared
animals (cattle and small ruminants mainly).
(e)Casual seasonal labor exists in agriculture
locally, mostly in harvesting and in weeding. Usually women’s daily pay rates are one-third
to one-half those of men. In some cases
women’s only payment for weeding is the
weeds/grasses that they collect. These are used
for their own livestock activities or even sold.
Collection and selling of firewood for fuel is a
common mean of obtaining energy resources.
(f)Women are occasionally involved in off-
farm activities such as sewing, henna
decoration, bead work etc. and even for a poor
household these do not generate more than
25% of their income. Financial and material
support from others include widow’s pensions
payments from the Social Welfare Fund and
contributions from charitable associations
(mostly at the time of Ramadan and Eid) but
also from wealthier families in the community,
who help them, whether they are related or not.
(g)The lack of income opportunities steadily
forces people to apply negative coping
mechanisms, including child labor and the sale
of assets (including livestock) and relief items.
(h)Women are central agents in the
management of water and land resources in
rain-fed agriculture. Male migration is a key
factor for the increased involvement of women
in rain-fed agriculture. More men in rain-fed
rural communities migrate to the cities or to the
Gulf countries to find jobs. As a result, women
become more and more involved in water
resource management in rain-fed agriculture
activities i.e. production and livestock. Here,
traditional agriculture relies mainly on dry
terraced farming which are maintained and
managed by women, while young girls take on
the responsibility of fetching drinking water, in
addition to other water activities related to
household responsibilities. Adult women are
responsible largely for daily agricultural
activities, while men are in charge of seasonal
activities such as plowing and harvesting. Rain-
fed regions today suffer from terrace
degradation and land erosion, as rain‐fed
systems are neglected for unsustainable irrigated
agriculture practices. While devoting most of
their daily activities in rain‐fed agriculture
practices and livestock rearing, many women
have also developed knowledge in water and
soil management.
D. POLICY RECOMMENDATIONS
The dominant land-use/water linkage is clearly
the expansion of qat and other irrigated crops,
with the associated impacts, both social and
environmental. The shift from more traditional
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crops to qat, coupled with changes in climate
(deceasing rainfall, increasing temperature) adds
additional layers of water stress to Yemen.
The second type of constraint facing the rain-
fed rural communities of the Sana’a basin is
the abandonment of agricultural land driven
by socio-economic factors i.e. immigration of
males into areas with better income
opportunities. This socio-economic change has
implications for the management of both land
and water practices in terms of for example
building new and maintaining existing soil and
water conservation structures.
So far the communities have adopted several
unsustainable coping mechanisms to increase
their resilience to both sets of challenges
through contributions from the Social Welfare
Fund, migration, child labor, sales of assets
(including livestock), and relief items.
Given the aforementioned challenges and the
unsustainable coping strategies, the following
are three suggested policy recommendations to
enhance the resilience of rain-fed communities
against bio-physical and social changes:
First, strengthen the existing traditional land
and water resource management practices that
have been adopted for many generations in
rural Yemen to undertake integrated
landscapes management. It is important for
policy makers to support existing formal and
informal institutions which already have the vast
local knowledge for supporting their natural
resources, to develop local adaptive capacity
and resilience5.
Existing global experiences exhibit the positive
outcome that can be realized if natural
resources are managed efficiently through
integrated landscapes management. For
example, in the lower Amu Darya river basin in
Uzbekistan the approach has included
5 See associated policy note on rural institutions.
improving water management for drainage and
salinity control and wetland restoration,
increasing productivity of irrigated agriculture
and restoring grazing lands. In China, the Loess
Plateau Watershed rehabilitation project has
returned the devastated Loess Plateau to
sustainable agricultural production, improving
the livelihoods of 2.5 million people and
securing food supplies in an area where food
was scarce in the past. In Colombian hillsides,
the landscape approach has been integrating
livestock, trees and a range of crops, depending
on the slope of the land and the direction of the
streams, to increase incomes while conserving
the landscape.
Second, it is important to re-think the
implications of an expanded production of qat
as part of an effort to slow down the depletion
of water resources. Qat is a water intensive crop
and crowds out the production of food crops and
export crops. First and foremost, this requires a
concerted political and social will from the
policy makers. Second, increase the
attractiveness of producing other cash crops such
as coffee and almond so farmers have the
incentive to alter their marginal rate of
substitution between qat and alternative
profitable cash crops. Doing so will require
building a strong and organized value chain for
alternative cash crops production which already
exists in the case of qat production6.
Third, suggested policy recommendation to
address the socio-economic challenges driven
by migration from rain-fed areas would be to
provide support to increase off-farm income
generating activities in the rain-fed areas. Essentially this means promoting a dynamic
rural non-farm sector with linkages to both the
agriculture and the urban economy (World
Development Report, 2008). This was the case
in China in which industry was brought to rural
towns allowing for diversification of rural
6 See associated policy note on the rural investment
climate.
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incomes. While this approach is not readily
available in the short-run, policy makers need to
re-think this as a vital measure for the
transformation of the rural economy, and
strengthening resilience in the medium and
long-run.