““Policy Decision Support for Sustainable Adaptation Policy Decision Support for Sustainable Adaptation of China’s Agriculture to Globalization”of China’s Agriculture to Globalization”

Land Use Change Project

International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria

Advanced Institute on Vulnerability to Global Environmental Change

19th May 2004

CCHINHINAAGROGRO

CHINAGRO

China Case StudyIntegrated Socio-Economic and Agro-ecological Systems

Policy Analysis : Modeling Tools

Overview of ChinAgro

Approaches to Vulnerability Assessment

Water Resources Vulnerability

Disease Threats and Livestock Vulnerability

Environmental Vulnerability

CHINAGRO

CHINAGRO PartnersCHINAGRO Partners• International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis

(IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria.

• Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research (IGSNRR), Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing.

• Sustainable Agricultural Research Centre, China Agricultural University (CAU), Beijing.

• Centre for Chinese Agricultural Policy (CCAP), Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing.

• Centre for World Food Studies (SOW-VU), Vrije Universiteit, Amsterdam, The Netherlands.

CHINAGRO

CHINAGRO GoalsCHINAGRO Goals• Inform the policy dialogue on food related issues

between China and the EU in the wake of China’s WTO accession.

• Formulate environmentally sustainable and feasible adaptation paths over the period 2001-30, with special reference to disparities between rural and urban, inland and coastal areas.

• Organize dialogue around scenario simulations with a regionalized economy-environment model.

• Provide extensive training in subjects such as trade policy analysis, agro-ecological assessments, and applied modeling with novel decision support tools.

CHINAGRO

The scale of China and the extensive set of features must be accounted for;

The spatial and social diversity to appear in the structure of the model, not only in numbers on population and surface;

Theoretical background on aggregation and novel methods in spatial modeling;

Requires, facilitates and fosters trans-disciplinary collaboration;

Spatially disaggregated AGE-model for the analysis of Chinese agricultural policy

Methodological ChallengesMethodological Challenges

CHINAGRO

Drivers of Regional Food System Changes:Drivers of Regional Food System Changes:ChinaChina

•Demographic changes– Population growth– Rapid aging

•Economic & urban changes– Land for urban, industrial,

infrastructure development– Demand for horticultural products

and animal protein– Increase in marketed production

•Agriculture intensification– Irrigation development– Mechanization and energy use– Biotechnology and input use– R & D

•Environmental change– Dry-land degradation– Pollution– Climate change

• Policy influencePolicy influence– Population (‘one-child family’)– Land use (e.g., economic zones;

‘dynamic balance of farmland’)– Environmental

protection/restoration– Economic reform– Public investment in infra-

structure, R&D, water diversion– Trade regime (regional food

self-sufficiency; joining WTO)

CHINAGRO

Current ChallengesCurrent Challenges

1. Food demand: strong growth in the future1. Food demand: strong growth in the future• Particular meat (and feed)

2. Production:2. Production: Resources

• Declining arable land; Rising water shortage

Productivity• Small farm size; Farm income; R&D investment

Environment• Degradation; Pollution; Extreme events

3. Trade3. Trade• Domestic; International

4. Income distribution4. Income distribution

CHINAGRO

Drivers of Regional Food System Changes:Drivers of Regional Food System Changes:The Example of ChinaThe Example of China

• Demographic changes– Population growth– Rapid aging

Economic & urban changesEconomic & urban changes– Land for urban, industrial,

infrastructure development– Demand for horticultural

products and animal protein– Increased share of marketed

production

CHINAGRO

Distribution of Poverty across Regions (%)Distribution of Poverty across Regions (%)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

East Central West

1989

1998

CHINAGRO

This defines research approach in four ways:

1. agricultural (agronomic) potentials

2. physical balances at level of spatial unit

3. transport flows between markets

4. welfare approach to agricultural policy

CHINAGROCHINAGROSpatially disaggregated AGE modelSpatially disaggregated AGE model

CHINAGROReference Climate

Length of Growing Period

CHINAGRO

Environmental Environmental constraints to constraints to AgricultureAgriculture

HadCM3 A2 2080

Reference Climate

CHINAGRO

Comparison of Comparison of Crop Production Crop Production Value (Yuan/ha)Value (Yuan/ha)

Undefined

Not arable

< 1.2

1.2 - 2.4

2.4 - 3.6

3.6 - 4.8

4.8 - 6.0

6.0 - 7.2

7.2 - 8.4

8.4 - 9.6

9.6 -10.8

10.8 -12.0

12.0 -13.2

13.2 -14.4

14.4 -15.6

15.6 -16.8

> 16.8

Water

Annual potential production (tons/ha), Annual potential production (tons/ha), weighted average of irrigation and rain-fed weighted average of irrigation and rain-fed potentials.potentials.

with weighted with weighted annual Cereal annual Cereal Production Production Potential Potential (tons/ha)(tons/ha)

CHINAGRO

Average transport cost (Yuan / TonKm)Average transport cost (Yuan / TonKm)

CHINAGRO

ROLE OF LUC WELFARE MODEL:

•Model interactions of final demand changes and -Land transformation-Water availability

•Facilitate evaluation of internal and external policy changes (e.g. WTO):-Land and water use-Regional rural income disparity-Consumption and trade

•Measure impacts of global environ-mental change on agriculture sector

DemographicModel

Land UseAllocation

Land Cover,Environmental

Impacts

Policies,Institutions

LandProductivity

Values,Expectations

EconomicModel

ClimateSystem

Migration

Emissions, Albedo, Carbon cycle, etc.

Life styles, Aspirations

Transfers

Env

ironm

ent

Technology,Endowments

Erosion, Soil fertility, etc.

Trade

Yields, Land classesClimate

Pol

lutio

n

Land use,Management

Prices, Capital,Labor, Demand

TransboundaryPollution

InternationalAgreements

Policy objectivesRural/UrbanPopulation

Emissions

Regulations

Taxes, Quota