plymouth & south west devon joint local plan...health (27,300 jobs), manufacturing (18,500),...

On behalf of Plymouth City Council, South Hams District Council and West Devon District Council

Project Ref: 29199 | Rev: AA | Date: February 2017

Office Address: 10 Queen Square, Bristol, BS1 4NT T: +44 (0)117 332 7840 E: [email protected]

Plymouth & South West Devon Joint Local Plan

Assessment of Employment Forecasts


Plymouth & South West Devon JLP

J:\29199 Plymouth Sub Regional Study\Reporting\Employment\07022017 Plymouth &

SW Devon JLP Employment Topic Paper.docx

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Document Control Sheet

Project Name: Plymouth Joint Local Plan

Project Ref: 29199

Report Title: Assessment of Employment Forecasts

Doc Ref:

Date: February 2017

Name Position Signature Date

Prepared by: Russell Porter Senior Associate

Economist RP February 2017

Reviewed by: Jo Lee Associate Planner JL February 2017

Approved by: John Baker Partner JB February 2017

For and on behalf of Peter Brett Associates LLP

Revision Date Description Prepared Reviewed Approved

This report has been prepared by Peter Brett Associates LLP (‘PBA’) on behalf of its client to whom this report is addressed (‘Client’) in connection with the project described in this report and takes into account the Client's particular instructions and requirements. This report was prepared in accordance with the professional services appointment under which PBA was appointed by its Client. This report is not intended for and should not be relied on by any third party (i.e. parties other than the Client). PBA accepts no duty or responsibility (including in negligence) to any party other than the Client and disclaims all liability of any nature whatsoever to any such party in respect of this report.

© Peter Brett Associates LLP 2017



J:\29199 Plymouth Sub Regional Study\Reporting\Employment\07022017 Plymouth & SW Devon JLP Employment Topic Paper.docx

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Contents

1 Introduction ................................................................................................................................ 1

1.1 Study Purpose and Scope ............................................................................................ 1

1.2 National Guidance ........................................................................................................ 1

2 Current Sub-Regional Employment .......................................................................................... 2

2.1 Introduction ................................................................................................................... 2

2.2 Current Employment Patterns ...................................................................................... 2

2.3 Current Economic Activity ............................................................................................. 3

3 Development of Growth Scenarios ......................................................................................... 11

3.1 Introduction ................................................................................................................. 11

3.2 Experian Employment Forecasts, 2014-34 ................................................................. 11

3.3 Experian Participation Rates ...................................................................................... 11

4 Future Economic Scenarios .................................................................................................... 12

4.1 Introduction ................................................................................................................. 12

4.2 Findings of Employment Growth in the JLP Area ....................................................... 12

4.3 Summary of Future Growth Scenarios ........................................................................ 15

Figures

Figure 1.1 Sector employment across the Plymouth & SW Devon JLP area, 2010 and 2014 ............... 4 Figure 1.2 Combined industrial/warehouse, office and retail employment and floorspace ..................... 5 Figure 1.3 Industrial and Warehousing employment and floorspace ...................................................... 6 Figure 1.4 Office employment and floorspace ........................................................................................ 7 Figure 1.5 Retail employment and floorspace ........................................................................................ 8 Figure 1.6 Plymouth & SW Devon JLP area sector representation and strength ................................... 9

Tables

Table 2.1 Total employment over time across the Plymouth & SW Devon JLP area ............................. 2 Table 1.2 Economic activity among 16-64 years old residents in the JLP area, 2015 .......................... 10 Table 4.1 Baseline employment projections for Plymouth & SW Devon JLP area, 2014-2034 ............ 13 Table 4.2 10-year migration trend projections for Plymouth & SW Devon JLP area, 2014-2034 ......... 14 Table 4.3 Summary of the growth across the Plymouth & SW Devon JLP area, 2014 to 2034............ 15 Table A2.1 Plymouth JLP net additional B-space jobs, 2014-2034 ........................................................ 3 Table A.2 Plymouth JLP net additional B-space floorspace land requirements, 2014-2034................... 3

Appendices

Appendix A Employment Forecasts by JLP Areas

Appendix B Converting Future Employment Demand into Land Use Sectors




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JLP Employment Topic Paper.docx

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1 Introduction

1.1 Study Purpose and Scope

1.1.1 Peter Brett Associates (PBA) has been commissioned by Plymouth City Council, working in partnership with South Hams District Council, West Devon District Council and Dartmoor National Park Authority, to analyse and test the objectively assessed need for new homes and additional jobs that should be planned for across the Plymouth Housing Market Area (HMA) to 2034. The work will inform the levels of growth that will underpin the development of a Joint Local Plan (JLP) for the Plymouth, South Hams and West Devon local authority areas.

1.1.2 This technical note sets out the findings of the analysis undertaken on recent employment forecasts (post BREXIT) prepared by Experian that align with the Plymouth HMA housing growth. PBA has also considered the change in potential demand for employment land implications associated with these future jobs.

1.1.3 Note that HMA, the JLP area and the area examined (Plymouth City, South Hams and West Devon districts) for economic purposes are treated as the same area in this note. However, from here on in this note the study area is solely referred to as the Plymouth & SW Devon JLP area or the JLP area.

1.2 National Guidance

1.2.1 The National Planning Policy Framework (NPPF) makes it clear that evidence, or ‘objectively assessed needs’, should underpin the overall strategy and each policy in the local plan. The Planning Practice Guidance (PPG) goes on to highlight that “Need for all land uses should address both the total number of homes or quantity of economic development floorspace needed based on quantitative assessments, but also on an understanding of the qualitative requirements of each market segment”1. In assessing needs, the PPG clearly states that local authorities are required to consider future scenarios that could only be reasonably expected to occur.

1.2.2 It is important to note that the PPG stipulates that plan makers should not apply constraints to the overall assessment of need, such as limitations imposed by the supply of land for new development, historical underperformance, viability, infrastructure or environmental constraints. However, these considerations will need addressing when bringing evidence bases together to identify specific policies within the development plan.

1 NPPG Housing and economic development needs assessments, para 003.





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2 Current Sub-Regional Employment

2.1 Introduction

2.1.1 Before examining the levels of employment growth that are forecast across the Plymouth & SW Devon JLP area, it is first important to establish the baseline position with regard to the existing scale, spread and past changes in jobs.

2.2 Current Employment Patterns

2.2.1 Analysis of the Business Register and Employment Survey (BRES) reveals that in 2014 there were 163,800 employment jobs2 across the JLP area. The key employment sectors were Health (27,300 jobs), Manufacturing (18,500), Retail (17,900), Education (16,900), and Accommodation and food services (15,500).

2.2.2 In terms of change and direction of travel, Table 2.1 shows that as the UK emerged from

recessionary years 2009 and 2010, which are not indicative of longer term employment trends that may happen in the future, total employment growth across the Plymouth & SW Devon JLP area had increased by approximately 1,100 jobs per annum by 2014. This growth has been driven predominantly by job creation within the City of Plymouth (+4,700 jobs).

Table 2.1 Total employment over time across the Plymouth & SW Devon JLP area

Change

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2009-14 2010-14

Plymouth 109,600 105,500 106,500 107,800 108,900 110,200 600 4,700

South Hams 36,400 36,000 36,200 35,000 35,400 36,500 100 500

West Devon 18,200 17,900 17,100 16,600 16,500 17,100 -1,100 -800

JLP area total 164,200 159,400 159,800 159,400 160,800 163,800 -400 4,400

Source: BRES

2.2.3 Figure 2.1 highlights the growth and decline of broad sectors across the JLP area between

2010 and 2014. It highlights the area’s reliance on public sector employment in Health (27,300 jobs) and Education (16,900), as well as key private sector industries, including Manufacturing (18,500), Retail (17,900), and Accommodation and food services (15,500). The fastest growing sectors in terms of additional jobs over the period were Property (+74%), Public administration and defence (+26%), Construction (+16%) and Health (+16%). At the same time, there were significant declines in employment in Information and communication (-27%), Transport & storage (-20%), and Arts, entertainment, recreation and other services (-13%).

2.2.4 It is estimated that nearly half of all 2014 jobs in the JLP area are within sectors that are typically planned for in terms of land allocations through the Local Plan process, namely industrial and warehousing, office and retail employment. The 2014 spread of these jobs at neighbourhood levels (using Medium Super Output Area (MSOA) level) is illustrated using thematic mapping in Figures 2.2 to 2.5.

2.2.5 The maps also show the approximate quantum of floorspace in each neighbourhood using bars, which has been sourced from experimental data for 2008 from the VOA3. As expected, these figures highlight the dominance of Plymouth City with regard to the quantum of both jobs

2 Note that these BRES figures exclude farm agriculture jobs and employment (normally self-employed) in non VAT and/or PAYE registered businesses, so the actual job number is likely to be slightly higher than this.

3 The last year that this floorspace data was published is 2008, so it may not give a fully up to date picture. But since floorspace changes at a slower rate than jobs, it is not unreasonable to assume that it would still sync with the 2014 jobs data.





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and floorspace provision, alongside with local clusters at Ivybridge, Totnes and Tavistock in South Hams and West Devon.

Current Employment Sector Strength

2.2.6 Figure 2.6 identifies how far the economic structure of the Plymouth & SW Devon JLP area economy is likely to be conducive to growth based on a review of the area’s representation of industry sectors. The chart shows the relative size of sectors in the JLP area by the size of the bubble, and the local sector representation compared to the national (England & Wales) average on the horizontal axis, and each sector’s recent national employment growth on the vertical axis. This allows us to assess which locally significant sectors have higher than national average number of employees in the JLP area and whether they fall into the category of declining or growing sectors nationally.

2.2.7 From the chart, the following can be observed about the Plymouth & SW Devon JLP area’s business sectors:

Sectors located in the bottom left quadrant have been experiencing negative growth rates nationally since 2009 and are under-represented locally compared to the national average. The JLP area only has a few sectors that fall into this category, including Financial and insurance and ‘Agriculture’, although nationally these have experienced relatively stable employment levels with only small declines over the previous five years.

Sectors located in the bottom right quadrant are over-represented locally but have also been experiencing decline nationally. The JLP area sectors falling into this category include ‘Public administration and defence’ and ‘Construction’; both of which have contracted as a result of the economic downturn and budgetary cuts.

Sectors located in the top right quadrant of the chart combine above average representation in the Plymouth & SW Devon JLP area with national employment growth in these sectors. They are therefore considered to be the strong sectors in the Plymouth & SW Devon JLP area. Plymouth & SW Devon JLP area sectors falling into this category include ‘Health’, ‘Education’ and ‘Accommodation and food services’.

2.2.8 Sectors located in the top left quadrant are sectors that generate employment growth but are still relatively under-represented in comparison to the national level. The JLP area sectors falling into this category include ‘Business administration and support services’, ‘Professional, scientific and technical’, and ‘Information and communications’. These sectors could represent the greatest potential for growing the economy in the future.

2.3 Current Economic Activity

2.3.1 Analysis of the Annual Population Survey (2015) reveals that the Plymouth & SW Devon JLP area residents’ average economic activity (77.8%) and unemployment (5.2%) rates were broadly in line with those recorded across Great Britain as a whole (see Table 2.2), but far

less well when compared with the rest of Devon. This would indicate that there is potential for local residents to benefit from more employment growth in the JLP area.





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Figure 1.1 Sector employment across the Plymouth & SW Devon JLP area, 2010 and 2014

Source: BRES 2010-2014





5

Figure 1.2 Combined industrial/warehouse, office and retail employment and floorspace

Source: BRES (2014)/VOA (2008)





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Figure 1.3 Industrial and Warehousing employment and floorspace






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Figure 1.4 Office employment and floorspace






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Figure 1.5 Retail employment and floorspace






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Figure 1.6 Plymouth & SW Devon JLP area sector representation and strength

Source: BRES 2014Economic activity rate

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

1314

15

16

17

18

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

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10%

15%

20%

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0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 2

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Location Quotient: 1 = Eng&Wales1 : Agriculture, forestry & fishing (A) 2 : Mining, quarrying & utilities (B,D and E) 3 : Manufacturing (C)

4 : Construction (F) 5 : Motor trades (Part G) 6 : Wholesale (Part G)

7 : Retail (Part G) 8 : Transport & storage (inc postal) (H) 9 : Accommodation & food services (I)

10 : Information & communication (J) 11 : Financial & insurance (K) 12 : Property (L)

13 : Professional, scientific & technical (M) 14 : Business administration & support services (N) 15 : Public administration & defence (O)

16 : Education (P) 17 : Health (Q) 18 : Arts, entertainment, recreation & other services (R,S,T and U)





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Table 1.2 Economic activity among 16-64 years old residents in the JLP area, 2015

Economically active Unemployment

No. Rate No. Rate

Plymouth 131,500 79% 7,900 6%

South Hams 36,200 73% 1,100 3%

West Devon 25,000 80% 1,000 4%

Plymouth LPA 192,700 78% 10,000 5%

Devon 253,900 80% 12,100 4%

Great Britain 30,713,000 78% 1,710,200 6%

Source: Annual Population Survey 2015





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3 Development of Growth Scenarios

3.1 Introduction

3.1.1 Employment forecasting has been used to provide an indication about the likely net increase in new jobs might be over the Joint Local Plan period. This level of growth is to inform an understanding of the housing and employment land implications to support economic growth in the JLP area.

3.2 Experian Employment Forecasts, 2014-34

3.2.1 Experian Economics was commissioned in Autumn 2016 to provide two scenario forecasts that were agreed between PBA and the study steering group. In consultation with the study steering group, both scenarios were adjusted because of an undercounting of recorded jobs in the fishing and defence sectors. Each forecast uses 2014 as the base year and projects to 2034 to align with the proposed JLP period. The scenario forecasts are:

Baseline scenario – based on Experian’s standard employment projections but adjusted in consultation with the study steering group to take into account of an undercounting of jobs in the fishing and defence sectors. These forecasts are informed by the 2014 Sub-national Population Projections and Experian’s derived participation rate4 (labour market economic activity) forecasts, which are discussed below.

10-year migration trend scenario – these are the baseline forecasts as above but adjusted to reflect the Devon County Council Local projections which use a 10-year migration trend.

3.3 Experian Participation Rates

3.3.1 Using the age and gender population projections for the JLP area, the Experian forecasts project forward participation rates (this is the same definition to the APS defined ‘economic activity’) for each age and gender group taking into account:

Announced changes in public policy (including the change to State Pension Age)

Assuming the activity behaviour of an age-gender group in the future is the behaviour of that same group today with:

Expected changes in the participation of females in older age groups as evidenced by today’s participation rates of younger cohorts (who will age into those older groups); and

Expected changes in behaviour connected with improved longevity and health; changes to patterns of work (allowing older people to continue working under more flexible arrangements); and changes in the industrial composition of the economy.

4 There are alternative methods for defining participation rates which have been recommended but these are preferred





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4 Future Economic Scenarios

4.1 Introduction

4.1.1 In this section, the Experian work is analysed in terms of the future scenarios and any implications of employment growth in the Plymouth & SW Devon JLP area.

4.2 Findings of Employment Growth in the JLP Area

4.2.1 The baseline indicates that the Plymouth & SW Devon JLP area will deliver nearly 20,000 jobs between 2014 and 2034 (see Table 4.1). In contrast, the 10-year migration trend scenario

indicates that the Plymouth & SW Devon JLP area will deliver just over 20,000 jobs over the same period (see Table 4.2). The difference between the two forecasts is just 700 jobs.

4.2.2 The employment forecasts are projected to grow annually by around 1,100 jobs, which is consistent with historical job growth trends (+1,100 jobs per annum between 2010 and 2014). These forecasts would also support the positive economic development objectives of the JLP area among the three councils and the Heart of the South West Local Enterprise Partnership5, which are seeking to encourage employment growth in their areas.

4.2.3 Closer analysis of the two scenarios highlights that some sectors in the JLP area are expected to decline but this is only by a few jobs with the exception of the Retail sector (c.-500 jobs) and most notably in Public administration and defence (c.-2,000 jobs). However, growth of more than 1,000 jobs is forecast in each of the following sectors:

Land Transport, Storage & Post Education

Accommodation and food services Health

Professional services Residential care and social work

Administration and supportive services

Recreation.

Real estate

4.2.4 Note: Experian forecasts are based on Labour Force Survey (LFS) data rather than BRES. Generally, the LFS is regarded by ONS as the best measure of total jobs in the economy. The BRES outputs are regarded as the best estimates at a detailed regional and industrial level. The main differences between them are:

BRES is a point-in-time survey requesting employee counts on a specific date in the year. The LFS estimates are averages for 12-month periods.

The LFS definition of employment is anyone (aged 16 or over) who does at least 1 hour's paid work in the week prior to their LFS interview, or has a job that they are temporarily away from (for example on holiday). On the other hand, BRES produces point-in-time estimates of full and part-time employees on the payroll.

Unlike BRES, LFS includes people who do unpaid work in a family business, Government Supported Trainees and HM Forces. It should be noted that includes the self-employed as long as they are registered for VAT or PAYE. As the LFS includes these “below the threshold” very small businesses employee estimates from LFS and BRES are not directly comparable.

LFS is a household survey while BRES is a survey of businesses.

5 The SW LEP, covering Devon and Somerset, targets transformational growth (i.e. faster than the UK average) of 163,000 additional jobs between 2014 and 2030.





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Table 4.1 Baseline employment projections for Plymouth & SW Devon JLP area, 2014-2034

Sector job numbers (000s) 2014 2034 #

Change %

Change

Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing 4.41 4.19 -0.22 -5%

Extraction & Mining 0.15 0.15 -0.01 -5%

Food, Drink & Tobacco 2.09 2.28 0.19 9%

Textiles & Clothing 0.47 0.36 -0.11 -23%

Wood & Paper 0.46 0.40 -0.06 -12%

Printing and Reproduction of Recorded Media 0.42 0.25 -0.17 -40%

Fuel Refining 0.00 0.00 0.00 45%

Chemicals 0.33 0.31 -0.02 -5%

Pharmaceuticals 0.07 0.14 0.07 101%

Rubber, Plastic and Other Non-Metallic Mineral Products 1.06 1.00 -0.05 -5%

Metal Products 1.42 1.02 -0.40 -28%

Computer & Electronic Products 1.11 1.05 -0.06 -5%

Machinery & Equipment 1.09 0.99 -0.10 -9%

Transport Equipment 7.73 8.16 0.43 6%

Other Manufacturing 2.56 2.69 0.13 5%

Utilities 1.46 1.71 0.25 17%

Construction of Buildings 3.83 4.01 0.18 5%

Civil Engineering 0.74 0.65 -0.09 -12%

Specialised Construction Activities 8.32 8.67 0.35 4%

Wholesale 8.44 8.64 0.20 2%

Retail 19.68 19.13 -0.55 -3%

Land Transport, Storage & Post 7.90 9.04 1.14 14%

Air & Water Transport 0.28 0.32 0.04 16%

Accommodation & Food Services 16.62 21.60 4.98 30%

Recreation 5.98 7.36 1.38 23%

Media Activities 1.79 2.03 0.24 14%

Telecoms 1.91 1.82 -0.09 -5%

Computing & Information Services 1.13 1.27 0.14 13%

Finance 3.01 3.28 0.27 9%

Insurance & Pensions 0.04 0.03 0.00 -5%

Real Estate 4.61 5.78 1.18 26%

Professional Services 9.65 11.73 2.08 22%

Administrative & Supportive Service Activities 11.48 13.70 2.22 19%

Other Private Services 5.94 5.82 -0.12 -2%

Public Administration & Defence 11.66 9.61 -2.04 -18%

Education 18.86 21.23 2.37 13%

Health 17.20 19.19 1.99 12%

Residential Care & Social Work 13.19 17.16 3.97 30%

Total jobs 197.07 216.78 19.72 10%

Annual rate of change in jobs 986 0.48%

Source: Experian Economics





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Table 4.2 10-year migration trend projections for Plymouth & SW Devon JLP area, 2014-2034


Change %

Change


Extraction & Mining 0.15 0.15 -0.01 -5%



Wood & Paper 0.46 0.40 -0.06 -12%


Fuel Refining 0.00 0.00 0.00 45%

Chemicals 0.33 0.31 -0.02 -5%



Metal Products 1.42 1.02 -0.40 -28%





Utilities 1.46 1.71 0.25 17%




Wholesale 8.43 8.63 0.20 2%

Retail 19.67 19.13 -0.54 -3%




Recreation 5.98 7.38 1.40 23%


Telecoms 1.91 1.83 -0.08 -4%


Finance 3.01 3.36 0.35 12%


Real Estate 4.60 5.79 1.18 26%





Education 18.87 21.38 2.51 13%

Health 17.22 19.37 2.16 13%


Total jobs 197.07 217.48 20.41 10%

Annual rate of change in jobs 1,021 0.49%






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4.2.5 The breakdown of employment forecasts for each council area has been provided in Appendix 1.

4.3 Summary of Future Growth Scenarios

4.3.1 The projected growth levels associated with each scenario in the Plymouth JLP are summarised in Table 4.3.

Table 4.3 Summary of the growth across the Plymouth & SW Devon JLP area, 2014 to 2034

Baseline employment trend 10-year migration trend

Variable name (000s) # Change % Change # Change % Change

Total Population 35.06 9% 42.77 11%

Working Age Population 13.52 6% 20.40 8%

Economic Activity Rate (%) - Working Age 0.02 3% 0.01 1%

Workforce Jobs 19.72 10% 20.41 10%

Unemployment 0.02 0% 0.93 8%

Unemployment Rate 0.00 -8% 0.00 -1%

Net commuting balance (inflow) 2.15 557% 2.37 615%


4.3.2 The results show a small difference in the projected total employment numbers between the baseline and 10-year population migration trend scenario over the Plan period. The results, particularly the slightly higher 10-year migration employment forecasts, are consistent with recent changes based on the BRES employment trends between 2010 and 2014 (+1,100 jobs per annum), as well as the Councils’ and LEP growth aspirations for the JLP area.

4.3.3 Since the testing uses mutually consistent assumptions in the demographic and economic models, it is possible to examine if the anticipated demographic projection (10-year migration trend) would support the future job growth expected in the area without substantially affecting commuting flows. As Table 4.3 implies, in-commuting would increase by less than 2,500

workers, however in percentage terms this infers a substantial increase but this is only because it is based on existing small numbers of in-commuters. If this amount of in-commuting was to be considered a problem for the JLP area, then in line with the NPPG the projections should be adjusted. However, in this case it is clear that the results of the bespoke forecast demonstrate that the JLP area is not constrained by a lack of local supply of labour. Instead, the testing shows that the 10-year migration trend generates a slightly larger labour supply.

4.3.4 With the growth in labour supply there is the potential for increasing the local unemployment rate (i.e. share of economically active working age population not working). This is because the resident labour supply may increase at a greater rate than employment (demand) growth. This is relevant in the Plymouth City 10-year migration scenario, which increases the Plymouth population by 7,700 above the Experian baseline population. This higher population growth would lead to higher local job demand throughout the forecasts (because of the need for more services, etc), but this would be insufficient to match the increase in the labour force resulting from the population growth. This is because new business enterprises and output (and therefore additional demand for jobs) take longer to evolve relative to demographic changes. Consequently, the 10-year migration scenario forecasts show a slightly higher unemployment rate and marginally lower economic activity rate in Plymouth relative to the baseline.6

6 Economic activity rates are slightly lower because of the higher chances of unemployment discouraging working-age people from becoming economically active (i.e. they drop out of the labour market) due to more competition for jobs.





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4.3.5 The 10-year migration scenario forecast, which is considered a reasonable and consistent forecast, infers that the councils, and particularly Plymouth Council, should align their aims for increasing local job growth by asserting economic development policies initiatives that may enhance more employment opportunities for residents. It is understood that Plymouth Council is aiming for above trend job growth through planning tools such as in allocating employment land and other economic interventions to address the issues identified. Therefore, there is no justification for adjusting the housing requirement down in response to the top down employment forecasts. Not least because much of the demand for housing is not necessarily driven by job opportunities, and people who do not work also need to live somewhere.





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Appendix A Employment Forecasts by JLP Areas

Plymouth Employment Forecasts 2014-2034 (Baseline)

Sector job numbers (000s) 2014 2034 # Change %

Change

Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing 0.38 0.38 0.00 0%

Extraction & Mining 0.02 0.02 0.00 -9%



Wood & Paper 0.10 0.08 -0.02 -17%


Fuel Refining 0.00 0.00 0.00 44%

Chemicals 0.05 0.05 -0.01 -10%



Metal Products 0.93 0.65 -0.28 -30%





Utilities 1.04 1.21 0.17 17%




Wholesale 4.63 4.97 0.34 7%

Retail 13.06 12.78 -0.28 -2%




Recreation 4.17 5.17 1.00 24%


Telecoms 0.54 0.52 -0.02 -3%


Finance 2.39 2.62 0.23 10%


Real Estate 2.88 3.84 0.96 33%





Education 14.07 15.83 1.76 13%

Health 14.67 16.41 1.74 12%


Total jobs 128.55 143.43 14.88 12%







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Plymouth 10-year migration trend projections 2014-2034


Change %

Change

Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing 0.38 0.38 0.00 0%




Wood & Paper 0.10 0.08 -0.02 -17%


Fuel Refining 0.00 0.00 0.00 43%

Chemicals 0.05 0.05 -0.01 -10%



Metal Products 0.93 0.65 -0.28 -30%





Utilities 1.04 1.21 0.17 17%




Wholesale 4.63 4.98 0.35 7%

Retail 13.05 12.79 -0.26 -2%




Recreation 4.17 5.20 1.02 24%


Telecoms 0.54 0.53 0.00 -1%


Finance 2.39 2.71 0.32 14%


Real Estate 2.88 3.85 0.98 34%





Education 14.08 16.03 1.95 14%

Health 14.68 16.62 1.94 13%


Total jobs 128.55 144.39 15.84 12%







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South Hams Employment Forecasts (Baseline) 2014-2034


Change %

Change





Wood & Paper 0.28 0.24 -0.04 -15%


Fuel Refining 0.00 0.00 0.00 43%

Chemicals 0.23 0.23 -0.01 -4%



Metal Products 0.42 0.32 -0.10 -23%



Transport Equipment 0.44 0.42 -0.02 -6%


Utilities 0.25 0.28 0.03 14%



Specialised Construction Activities 2.10 2.07 -0.03 -1%

Wholesale 2.66 2.52 -0.14 -5%

Retail 4.60 4.29 -0.31 -7%




Recreation 1.33 1.58 0.25 19%


Telecoms 1.28 1.21 -0.07 -6%


Finance 0.34 0.33 -0.01 -3%

Insurance & Pensions 0.02 0.02 0.00 0%

Real Estate 1.25 1.42 0.17 13%





Education 2.87 3.17 0.30 11%

Health 1.66 1.79 0.13 8%


Total jobs 46.48 48.86 2.39 5%







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South Hams 10-year migration trend projections 2014-2034


Change %

Change





Wood & Paper 0.28 0.24 -0.04 -15%


Fuel Refining 0.00 0.00 0.00 43%

Chemicals 0.23 0.23 -0.01 -4%



Metal Products 0.42 0.32 -0.10 -23%



Transport Equipment 0.44 0.42 -0.03 -6%


Utilities 0.25 0.28 0.03 14%



Specialised Construction Activities 2.10 2.07 -0.03 -1%

Wholesale 2.66 2.52 -0.14 -5%

Retail 4.60 4.28 -0.32 -7%




Recreation 1.33 1.58 0.25 18%


Telecoms 1.28 1.20 -0.08 -6%


Finance 0.34 0.32 -0.02 -6%


Real Estate 1.25 1.41 0.16 13%





Education 2.87 3.14 0.27 9%

Health 1.66 1.77 0.11 7%


Total jobs 46.48 48.66 2.18 5%







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West Devon Employment Forecasts (Baseline) 2014-2034


Change %

Change




Textiles & Clothing 0.02 0.02 0.00 -3%

Wood & Paper 0.07 0.08 0.00 3%


Fuel Refining 0.00 0.00 0.00 48%

Chemicals 0.04 0.04 0.00 -6%


Rubber, Plastic and Other Non-Metallic Mineral Products 0.11 0.11 0.00 3%

Metal Products 0.07 0.05 -0.02 -26%

Computer & Electronic Products 0.05 0.05 0.00 -1%




Utilities 0.17 0.21 0.04 25%




Wholesale 1.14 1.14 -0.01 -1%

Retail 2.02 2.06 0.04 2%




Recreation 0.47 0.61 0.13 28%


Telecoms 0.10 0.09 0.00 -1%


Finance 0.28 0.33 0.05 19%


Real Estate 0.48 0.53 0.05 10%



Other Private Services 0.96 1.08 0.11 12%


Education 1.92 2.23 0.30 16%

Health 0.88 0.99 0.12 13%


Total jobs 22.04 24.49 2.45 11%






West Devon 10-year migration trend projections 2014-2034


Change %

Change




Textiles & Clothing 0.02 0.02 0.00 -3%

Wood & Paper 0.07 0.08 0.00 4%


Fuel Refining 0.00 0.00 0.00 49%

Chemicals 0.04 0.04 0.00 -6%


Rubber, Plastic and Other Non-Metallic Mineral Products 0.11 0.11 0.00 3%

Metal Products 0.07 0.05 -0.02 -26%

Computer & Electronic Products 0.05 0.05 0.00 -1%




Utilities 0.17 0.21 0.04 25%




Wholesale 1.14 1.14 -0.01 -1%

Retail 2.02 2.06 0.04 2%




Recreation 0.47 0.61 0.13 28%


Telecoms 0.10 0.09 0.00 -2%


Finance 0.28 0.33 0.05 17%


Real Estate 0.48 0.53 0.05 10%



Other Private Services 0.96 1.07 0.11 12%


Education 1.92 2.21 0.29 15%

Health 0.88 0.99 0.11 13%


Total jobs 22.04 24.43 2.39 11%






Appendix B Converting Future Employment Demand into Land Use Sectors

Jobs can be categorised into two land use sector types:

‘B-Space’ sectors – which are jobs such as business and professional services and some public services, normally occupying offices, industrial and warehousing space that will require what is typically referred to as ‘employment land’, as defined as B-class uses in the Use Classes Order, and sometimes known as ‘business space’ or ‘B-space’.

‘Non B-space’ sector – jobs such as education, health and retail, which are not normally dependent on designated employment land, but require their own specialist sites and premises and are controlled separately in the planning process. These tend to be more service-led jobs, and their expansion is likely to be dependent on housing and population growth.

Based on the analysis of top down sector drivers for growth in the previous section, this section provides a high level indication for the type of land use that might be planned for through site allocations in the Plymouth Joint Local Plan (JLP) to support the employment growth. For consistency, this appendix follows the same approach to estimating requirements for employment land as used by Arup in their commission reviewing the Plymouth employment land requirements for Plymouth City Council (i.e. the Plymouth Employment Land Review (ELR) 2015). Note that PBA have not sought to review these assumptions in this update work.

It is important to note that all calculations are based on the net change in employment (the stock of jobs), which is the difference between jobs lost and jobs gained. Likewise, the corresponding net change in the floorspace stock will be the difference between floorspace gained, mostly from new development, and floorspace lost (for example, where industrial sites are cleared and redeveloped for other uses).

B-space sectors

To identify the requirement for employment space (defined as the ‘B’ land use classes covering offices, factories and warehouses, referred to here as B-space) to meet the potential demand generated by the net jobs growth, Table 8 of the Plymouth ELR (2015) converts Experian’s employment sectors into jobs identified for different B-class uses.

Based on the same conversion, Table A2.1 identifies that under the 10-year migration trend scenario there would be a potential requirement for some 13,200 net additional B-space jobs between 2014 and 2034 across the Plymouth JLP area. This is slightly greater than the baseline scenario. Of these, it is estimated that some 3,500 jobs will require accommodation in industry and warehousing space, and more than 9,700 jobs will require office space7.

The job numbers (net new jobs by sector) shown in Table A2.1 are then converted into land class

sectors using the same conversion rates that were applied in the Plymouth ELR (Arup 2015, Tables 8 and 9). PBA uses the same method with the exception of assuming that offices are planned at an average of 6,000 sqm per hectare of land based on blending Arup’s defined conversion rate for town centre (8,000 sqm) and out of centre offices (4,000 sqm). Also for consistency with the Plymouth ELR

7Production and distribution space (industrial and warehousing) are merged into one category, called “industrial/warehousing” because our experience suggests that data on the supply of space - such as DCLG floorspace statistics and planning data on completions and commitments – do not distinguish accurately between industrial factories and warehouses. This is not surprising since production and distribution can generally operate in the same buildings and, furthermore, subject to size limitations, space can be transferred between production and distribution without planning permission.




method, an additional 20% margin for frictional (vacant) space and choice is included in the total estimate for future land requirements.

Table A2.1 Plymouth JLP net additional B-space jobs, 2014-2034

Scenario Industry & warehousing

Offices Total B-Space

Baseline +3,403 +9,296 +12,698

10-year migration trend +3,472 +9,758 +13,230

Source: PBA derived based on Experian Economics forecasts and Arup

The results, as shown in Table A.2, are that the net additional B-space floorspace would generate a requirement for some 80 hectares of net additional employment land under the baseline employment growth scenario, rising to 82 hectares under the 10-year migration trend scenario.

Table A.2 Plymouth JLP net additional B-space floorspace land requirements, 2014-2034

Scenario B-space use

Total floorspace requirement

(sqm)

Equivalent land requirement

(ha)

Total land requirement

(ha)

Baseline I & W +229,528 +57.4 +80

Offices +133,855 +22.3

10-year migration trend I & W +234,693 +58.7 +82

Offices +140,515 +23.4

plymouth & south west devon joint local plan...health (27,300 jobs), manufacturing (18,500),...

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