planning for agriculture and food winnipeg july 14, 2008 implications of climate change for food...
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Planning for Agriculture and Food
Winnipeg
July 14, 2008
Implications of Climate Change for Food Production
Planning for adaptation and adaptive capacity
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Four Key Points to Make Relevant to Planning
1. Specific Adaptations 2. Capacity
of people to adapt
3. Capacity of plans and
policies to adapt
4. Don’t forget the mitigation + adaptation nexus
[Government of Canada 2007]
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Palliser’s Triangle
In 1860 Captain John Palliser, British North American Exploring Expedition, warned that disaster would befall those who tried to settle the region.
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Drought: A long history of bad experience
–1906; –1936-38 (quarter million people displaced); –1961; –1976-77; –1980; –1984-85; –1988; –2001-2003 (“the worst ever?” $3.6 B Ag /$5.8 B GDP/ 41 000 jobs lost
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Weather Stresses cited by Manitoba Farmers
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Precipitation Variability(1960-2002)
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Spatial Distribution of Temperature Increases
SurfaceSource: IPCC, 2007
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Projected surface temperature change
Source: IPCC, 2007
( C)
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Climate Change on the Prairies
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• Benefits:– warmer and longer growing seasons and a
warmer winter– Increasing temperature will be positive for crop
growth and yield, up to certain thresholds.
• Negative impacts:– from changes in timing of precipitation– Increased risk of droughts and associated pests– Increased risk of excessive moisture
Impacts on Agriculture
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Planning for Adaptation
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Coping and Adaptation Responses of Farmers Interviewed - Manitoba
• Employ a standard farm practice• Alter a farm cycle for no longer than one season• Access outside help from within the agricultural sector• Wait it out.• Work longer or do extra work.• Make crop insurance claims.• Work with the weather• Use technological advances.• Increase buffering capacity• Reduce seeding or other inputs.• Alter a farm cycle for more than one season.• Use local associations and support networks.
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Example Adaptations Relevant to Land Use Planning
• Reduced Tillage– Increase soil moisture and decreased erosion, while also reducing input
costs. – Also beneficial in wetter times, such as by allowing travel on soggy
land. – Important to ensure responsible use of herbicides to prevent negative
long-term impacts
• Land Drainage– Properly maintained drainage infrastructure can increase short and
medium-term capacity to cope with heavy rainfall and excess moisture. – However, long-term adaptation is better enabled by investing in
changes that mimic the natural landscape (e.g., managed wetlands, constructing prairie potholes) to act to retain water in times of drought and regulate water in wetter periods.
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Planning for Mitigation + Adaptation
IISD 2004
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A Generalized Vulnerability FrameworkV = f(Exposure, Adaptive Capacity)Smit and Pilifosova (2003)
Vulnerability
ExposureAdaptiveCapacity
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Economic Resources
Technology Information, skillsand management Infrastructure
Data Sources
2001 Census of Agriculture, 2001 Census of Population, 2005 Statistics Canada report on …
Institutions and Networks
Equity
AdaptiveCapacity
Diversity ofEmploymentopportunities
Income generation Relative to summary
expenses
Income generationRelative to capital
investment
Off-farmearnings
Technological exposure
Computer technology
Water accesstechnology
Technologicalflexibility
Experience and wisdom
Soil resourceManagement
practices
EnterpriseInformation
Management
EnvironmentalManagement
practices
Transportation network
Surface waterresource
Soil resource
Groundwaterresource
Access to agriEducation institutions
Email use
Social capital (viaInformal networks)
Internet use
Distribution of Income in the
Agri. population
Access to healthAnd social services
Employment opportunities
Distribution ofIncome in general
population
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Important are …
1. The capacity of people to adapt; AND
2. The capacity of plans and policies to adapt
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From the Summary:
“When situations are characterized by variability, uncertainty and change, conventional planning scenarios provide little guidance regarding future needs and conditions.”
“…clear need for frameworks that are "adaptive" - that reflect uncertainties and can respond and adapt as contexts change or unforeseen problems emerge.”
“Specific solutions are less important than the existence of processes and frameworks that enable solutions to be identified and implemented as specific constraints and contexts change.”
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framework for adaptive policiesAdaptive Policy
Ability of policy toadapt to anticipated
conditions
(based on a good understanding of cause and effect)
(based on a good understanding of system dynamics and complexity)
AutomaticAdjustment
Formal Review &Improvement
Regular review; pilot testing; experimentationMonitoring to trigger
policy adjustments
Ability of policy toadapt to unanticipated
conditions
Multi-perspectiveDeliberation
To accurately inform policy design and recognize
emerging issues
Multi-perspectiveAnalysis
to perform in a range of anticipated scenarios
Decentralization
Matching scales of ecosystems and
governance
Variation
Multiple interventions; diversity and risk
spreading
Self-organization& Social Networks
Encourage interaction and initiative to foster
innovative responses
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Summary of Four Key Points for Planning
1. Specific Adaptations 2. Capacity
of people to adapt
3. Capacity of plans and
policies to adapt
4. Don’t forget the mitigation + adaptation nexus