PLACE OF REFUGEDevelopment and Application of a

Risk Informed Process

Place of Refuge

• Refers to situations where a vessel, not in immanent peril, requests to enter a port or place to make needed repairs or take other action to stabilize a dangerous condition.

• Previous incidents, including the Erika, the Castor, and the Prestige, led to political paralysis, sunken ships, and heavy pollution.

• Requires a process to de-politicize the decision making process and involve all appropriate stakeholders.

Complex Issue

• SAR

• Force Majeure– Does not preclude restrictions & requirements

• Safety Concerns (inspection team)– Site Safety Plan REQUIRED

• Financial Responsibility– COFR satisfies most concerns

Complex Issue• Security (intel, HIV matrix, etc)

• Intervention on the High Seas– Requires consultation with flag state– Requires COMDT approval

• International (border) cooperation

• International notifications/Port State Control

• U.S. government notifications/MOTR

Policy Requirements

• The “right decision” may be readily apparent, but a well defined process is necessary to build confidence in that decision, and ensure important issues are not overlooked.

• Optimal policy is transparent, repeatable, and addresses the concerns of all legitimate stakeholders

U.S. Approach

• The U.S. will not pre-designate any location as a Place of Refuge – every case is different

• Plan and prepare by pre-surveying ports and locations that would be good choices in most circumstances

• Evaluate the likely risk to safety, natural resources, and economic resources. Select the option with the least risk.

Coast Guard Methodology

• Quantitative, risk-informed approach

• Assigns distinct numerical values to the probability and consequences associated with any number of Place of Refuge options

• Intended use is scenario based planning to aid decision making in the event of an actual POR situation

ProbabilityProbability

How likely, (%) is it that a worst case How likely, (%) is it that a worst case scenario will occur if the vessel is scenario will occur if the vessel is taken to a given POR, left in place, or taken to a given POR, left in place, or continues its voyage?continues its voyage?

Evaluation should be Evaluation should be made by pilots, made by pilots, professional mariners, professional mariners, salvage masters, etc.salvage masters, etc.

Probability FactorsProbability Factors

Transit DifficultyTransit Difficulty Holding GroundHolding Ground Expected Winds and Sea StateExpected Winds and Sea State Tides and CurrentsTides and Currents Cargo Offload and storageCargo Offload and storage Equipment staging Equipment staging

Probability – Evaluation CriteriaProbability – Evaluation Criteria

ScoreScore description

11 Ideally suited to addressing situation, equipment readily staged and deployed

22 Acceptable under prevailing and expected conditions

33 Poorly suited, additional measures or procedures will be needed

44 Poorly suited to addressing situation even w/additional measures; equipment staged/deployed only with great difficulty

55 Completely unsuitable or unavailable to address situation

Likelihood of an Incident

Occurring Description/Definition

Probability Score

Highly Probable Almost certain an incident will occur 0.9

ProbableMore than 50% likelihood that an incident will occur

0.75

Equal probabilityApproximately 50% likely that an incident will occur

0.5

UnlikelyLess than 50% likelihood than an incident will occur

0.25

ImprobableIncident not expected to occur under prevailing and expected conditions

0.05

Final probability number (%) for each option is then applied to Final probability number (%) for each option is then applied to the expected consequences at each locationthe expected consequences at each location

ConsequencesConsequences

What will be the impact if the What will be the impact if the situation DOES worsen?situation DOES worsen?• Human Health and SafetyHuman Health and Safety• Natural ResourcesNatural Resources• Economic ImpactEconomic Impact

Evaluation done by trustees and Evaluation done by trustees and public safety officialspublic safety officials

Health and Human SafetyHealth and Human Safety

Potential Consequences to:Potential Consequences to:

• General PublicGeneral Public• Vessel CrewVessel Crew• RespondersResponders

Consequences – Health & SafetyConsequences – Health & SafetyScoreScore DescriptionDescription

22 No credible threat to human health and No credible threat to human health and safety safety

44 Minor injuries to a few individuals, exposure to Minor injuries to a few individuals, exposure to hazmat hazmat belowbelow PEL/STEL PEL/STEL

88 Serious but non-life threatening injuries, hazmat Serious but non-life threatening injuries, hazmat exposure beyond PEL/STELexposure beyond PEL/STEL

1616 Some deaths and/or significant injuries/ hazmat Some deaths and/or significant injuries/ hazmat exposure beyond IDLH to small groups or lesser exposure beyond IDLH to small groups or lesser exposure to large groupsexposure to large groups

3232 Many deaths, serious injuries, or life threatening Many deaths, serious injuries, or life threatening health concerns health concerns

Natural ResourcesNatural Resources Threatened and Endangered SpeciesThreatened and Endangered Species Critical HabitatCritical Habitat Subsistence SpeciesSubsistence Species Cultural/Historical ResourcesCultural/Historical Resources Commercial SpeciesCommercial Species

Consequences – Natural Consequences – Natural ResourcesResources

Score Description

2 No expected exposure of the natural resource in question

4 Minimal exposure, impact expected to be local and short term

8 Moderate exposure, measurable impact over a larger area or longertime

16 Significant exposure, regional impact and/or multi-year recoveryperiod

32 High exposure, impact could cause the long term collapse over a largearea

Economic ImpactsEconomic Impacts

Shipping and CommerceShipping and Commerce Marine related tourismMarine related tourism Commercial FishingCommercial Fishing Non-marine impactsNon-marine impacts

Combined Risk ScoreCombined Risk Score

Consequence Scores

Probability Score

Health and Safety

Natural Resources

Economic Impacts

Place of Refuge A 0.5 108 340 80

Place of Refuge B 0.75 92 244 56

Continue Voyage 0.9 236 408 96

Risk by Consequence Type

Probability Score

Health and

Safety

NaturalResources

Economic Impacts

Total Risk

Place of Refuge A 0.5 54 170 40 264

Place of Refuge B 0.75 69 183 42 294

Continue Voyage 0.9 212 367 86 666

Total RiskTotal Risk

Place of RefugePlace of Refuge

Individual scores for each POR Individual scores for each POR option, and each consequence typeoption, and each consequence type

Choose the lowest combined risk Choose the lowest combined risk score, unless common sense dictates score, unless common sense dictates otherwiseotherwise

Sub-totals make it easy to identify Sub-totals make it easy to identify the reason/source of the final scorethe reason/source of the final score

Risk CommunicationRisk Communication

Key is to communicate to public and Key is to communicate to public and stakeholders that risk is being stakeholders that risk is being minimized, right people involved at minimized, right people involved at each stage, and many requirements each stage, and many requirements and actions being taken to reduce and actions being taken to reduce risk.risk.

National Response Team National Response Team GuidelinesGuidelines

Special emphasis on stakeholder Special emphasis on stakeholder issuesissues

Describes role/responsibility of other Describes role/responsibility of other agenciesagencies

Notes that full consultation/ Notes that full consultation/ evaluation may not always be evaluation may not always be possiblepossible

No structured risk evaluation toolNo structured risk evaluation tool

Questions?

Commander Andrew Tucci

U.S. Coast Guard