PLACE OF REFUGEDevelopment and Application of a
Risk Informed Process
Place of Refuge
• Refers to situations where a vessel, not in immanent peril, requests to enter a port or place to make needed repairs or take other action to stabilize a dangerous condition.
• Previous incidents, including the Erika, the Castor, and the Prestige, led to political paralysis, sunken ships, and heavy pollution.
• Requires a process to de-politicize the decision making process and involve all appropriate stakeholders.
Complex Issue
• SAR
• Force Majeure– Does not preclude restrictions & requirements
• Safety Concerns (inspection team)– Site Safety Plan REQUIRED
• Financial Responsibility– COFR satisfies most concerns
Complex Issue• Security (intel, HIV matrix, etc)
• Intervention on the High Seas– Requires consultation with flag state– Requires COMDT approval
• International (border) cooperation
• International notifications/Port State Control
• U.S. government notifications/MOTR
Policy Requirements
• The “right decision” may be readily apparent, but a well defined process is necessary to build confidence in that decision, and ensure important issues are not overlooked.
• Optimal policy is transparent, repeatable, and addresses the concerns of all legitimate stakeholders
U.S. Approach
• The U.S. will not pre-designate any location as a Place of Refuge – every case is different
• Plan and prepare by pre-surveying ports and locations that would be good choices in most circumstances
• Evaluate the likely risk to safety, natural resources, and economic resources. Select the option with the least risk.
Coast Guard Methodology
• Quantitative, risk-informed approach
• Assigns distinct numerical values to the probability and consequences associated with any number of Place of Refuge options
• Intended use is scenario based planning to aid decision making in the event of an actual POR situation
ProbabilityProbability
How likely, (%) is it that a worst case How likely, (%) is it that a worst case scenario will occur if the vessel is scenario will occur if the vessel is taken to a given POR, left in place, or taken to a given POR, left in place, or continues its voyage?continues its voyage?
Evaluation should be Evaluation should be made by pilots, made by pilots, professional mariners, professional mariners, salvage masters, etc.salvage masters, etc.
Probability FactorsProbability Factors
Transit DifficultyTransit Difficulty Holding GroundHolding Ground Expected Winds and Sea StateExpected Winds and Sea State Tides and CurrentsTides and Currents Cargo Offload and storageCargo Offload and storage Equipment staging Equipment staging
Probability – Evaluation CriteriaProbability – Evaluation Criteria
ScoreScore description
11 Ideally suited to addressing situation, equipment readily staged and deployed
22 Acceptable under prevailing and expected conditions
33 Poorly suited, additional measures or procedures will be needed
44 Poorly suited to addressing situation even w/additional measures; equipment staged/deployed only with great difficulty
55 Completely unsuitable or unavailable to address situation
Likelihood of an Incident
Occurring Description/Definition
Probability Score
Highly Probable Almost certain an incident will occur 0.9
ProbableMore than 50% likelihood that an incident will occur
0.75
Equal probabilityApproximately 50% likely that an incident will occur
0.5
UnlikelyLess than 50% likelihood than an incident will occur
0.25
ImprobableIncident not expected to occur under prevailing and expected conditions
0.05
Final probability number (%) for each option is then applied to Final probability number (%) for each option is then applied to the expected consequences at each locationthe expected consequences at each location
ConsequencesConsequences
What will be the impact if the What will be the impact if the situation DOES worsen?situation DOES worsen?• Human Health and SafetyHuman Health and Safety• Natural ResourcesNatural Resources• Economic ImpactEconomic Impact
Evaluation done by trustees and Evaluation done by trustees and public safety officialspublic safety officials
Health and Human SafetyHealth and Human Safety
Potential Consequences to:Potential Consequences to:
• General PublicGeneral Public• Vessel CrewVessel Crew• RespondersResponders
Consequences – Health & SafetyConsequences – Health & SafetyScoreScore DescriptionDescription
22 No credible threat to human health and No credible threat to human health and safety safety
44 Minor injuries to a few individuals, exposure to Minor injuries to a few individuals, exposure to hazmat hazmat belowbelow PEL/STEL PEL/STEL
88 Serious but non-life threatening injuries, hazmat Serious but non-life threatening injuries, hazmat exposure beyond PEL/STELexposure beyond PEL/STEL
1616 Some deaths and/or significant injuries/ hazmat Some deaths and/or significant injuries/ hazmat exposure beyond IDLH to small groups or lesser exposure beyond IDLH to small groups or lesser exposure to large groupsexposure to large groups
3232 Many deaths, serious injuries, or life threatening Many deaths, serious injuries, or life threatening health concerns health concerns
Natural ResourcesNatural Resources Threatened and Endangered SpeciesThreatened and Endangered Species Critical HabitatCritical Habitat Subsistence SpeciesSubsistence Species Cultural/Historical ResourcesCultural/Historical Resources Commercial SpeciesCommercial Species
Consequences – Natural Consequences – Natural ResourcesResources
Score Description
2 No expected exposure of the natural resource in question
4 Minimal exposure, impact expected to be local and short term
8 Moderate exposure, measurable impact over a larger area or longertime
16 Significant exposure, regional impact and/or multi-year recoveryperiod
32 High exposure, impact could cause the long term collapse over a largearea
Economic ImpactsEconomic Impacts
Shipping and CommerceShipping and Commerce Marine related tourismMarine related tourism Commercial FishingCommercial Fishing Non-marine impactsNon-marine impacts
Combined Risk ScoreCombined Risk Score
Consequence Scores
Probability Score
Health and Safety
Natural Resources
Economic Impacts
Place of Refuge A 0.5 108 340 80
Place of Refuge B 0.75 92 244 56
Continue Voyage 0.9 236 408 96
Risk by Consequence Type
Probability Score
Health and
Safety
NaturalResources
Economic Impacts
Total Risk
Place of Refuge A 0.5 54 170 40 264
Place of Refuge B 0.75 69 183 42 294
Continue Voyage 0.9 212 367 86 666
Total RiskTotal Risk
Place of RefugePlace of Refuge
Individual scores for each POR Individual scores for each POR option, and each consequence typeoption, and each consequence type
Choose the lowest combined risk Choose the lowest combined risk score, unless common sense dictates score, unless common sense dictates otherwiseotherwise
Sub-totals make it easy to identify Sub-totals make it easy to identify the reason/source of the final scorethe reason/source of the final score
Risk CommunicationRisk Communication
Key is to communicate to public and Key is to communicate to public and stakeholders that risk is being stakeholders that risk is being minimized, right people involved at minimized, right people involved at each stage, and many requirements each stage, and many requirements and actions being taken to reduce and actions being taken to reduce risk.risk.
National Response Team National Response Team GuidelinesGuidelines
Special emphasis on stakeholder Special emphasis on stakeholder issuesissues
Describes role/responsibility of other Describes role/responsibility of other agenciesagencies
Notes that full consultation/ Notes that full consultation/ evaluation may not always be evaluation may not always be possiblepossible
No structured risk evaluation toolNo structured risk evaluation tool
Questions?
Commander Andrew Tucci
U.S. Coast Guard