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www.siemens.com/pof Pictures of the Future The Magazine for Research and Innovation | Spring 2011 The New Age of Electricity Research without Borders Collective Intelligence Plugging the world into a universal energy carrier Developing innovations in an international environment Refining data into actionable information Solutions for Tomorrow’s World

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Pictures of the FutureThe Magazine for Research and Innovation | Spring 2011

The New Age of Electricity

Research without Borders

CollectiveIntelligence

Plugging the world into a universal energy carrier

Developing innovations in aninternational environment

Refining data into actionable information

Solutions forTomorrow’sWorld

2 Pictures of the Future | Spring 2011

Pictures of the Future | Editorial

The very first issue of Siemens’ Pictures ofthe Future magazine was published a

decade ago, at the turn of the new millenni-um. Since then our authors have researchedover 1,000 articles to find out what trends andtechnologies will characterize the world of to-morrow. We have always tried to not only con-vey Siemens’ perspective but also to look be-yond our own horizon and take the social andeconomic environment into account. After all,technical feasibility is only one of the factorsthat determine the success of innovations.

Dr. Ulrich Eberl is head of Siemens’

worldwide innovation communications.

He is founder and Editor-in-Chief of

Pictures of the Future, and is its co-

publisher, together with English Edition

Executive Editor Arthur F. Pease.

dicted. The human race has had to cope withthe fact that terrorists can attack entire coun-tries and that hacker attacks can strike crucialblows to key elements of a country’s infrastruc-ture. New security solutions must therefore bedeveloped to protect infrastructures (p. 105).We are also learning how to cope with a grow-ing number of natural disasters — earth-quakes, tsunamis, volcanic eruptions, hurri-canes (pp. 80, 91), heat waves, and floods,which have claimed thousands of human lives.

Two severe economic collapses — thebursting of the dotcom bubble and the recentglobal financial crisis — also occurred duringthe past decade. These events show us thatthe risks harbored by the global financial sys-tem need to be reassessed — just as the Gulfof Mexico oil spill and the destruction of nu-clear power facilities in Japan remind us of theneed to take a long hard look at the world’senergy production systems.

Many fundamental trends have been ana-lyzed in previous issues of Pictures of the Future:the growing scarcity of resources, climatechange, globalization, urbanization, demo-graphic developments, and the tremendous in-fluence of information and communicationtechnologies on every area of life. I havesummarized the most important conclusionswe have reached in the first ten years of ourresearch into the world of tomorrow in a newbook called Life in 2050 (p. 4).

In this issue of Pictures of the Future, weonce again have our finger on the pulse of thetimes. We explain how the global energy sys-tem will change as the “New Age of Electricity“begins and electricity becomes a comprehen-sive energy carrier (pp. 12–39).

And in our “Collective Intelligence” section,we show how the rapidly expanding universeof data — from industry, traffic, energy, andthe healthcare sector — can be transformedinto actionable knowledge (pp. 80–113).

In the second decade of Pictures of theFuture, which is now beginning, we will con-tinue to look over the shoulders of researchersand developers who are inventing the future.For us, this topic has never lost any of its fasci-nation. We share the viewpoint of Albert Ein-stein, who once said, “I’m more interested inthe future than in the past, because the futureis where I intend to live.”

Cover: Located off the coast of Northern Ireland, SeaGen, the world’sfirst commercial tidal current powerplant, is producing enough electricity to supply some 1,500 households. Theplant’s rotors can be lifted out of thewater for servicing.

Pictures of the Future is breaking new ground onthe Web. Readers visiting www.siemens.com/pof can now find a multimedia online magazine with not only the contents of the print version, but also a wealth of videos, audio slide shows, and interviews.Pictures of the Future is also available free of chargeas an iPad app from the App Store.

Customers’ wishes, social and political devel-opments, environmental impact, the optimiza-tion of production processes, and collabora-tion in the global networks of partners,suppliers, and sales structures have at least asstrong an influence.

The world has grown smaller since 2001.The process of globalization now encompassesmore than just worldwide channels of financeand trade. Countries such as China, India, Rus-sia, and Brazil have become much more thanraw material producers, production plant loca-tions or service providers — experts estimatethat these four countries alone will account forhalf of all global economic growth by 2020.Moreover, they are also becoming extremelyattractive research locations.

Dozens of new universities are being found-ed in India; an international research city is be-ing built in Russia (p. 74); and China today hasas many university freshmen as the EU, theU.S., and Japan put together (p. 68). Withinthe last decade the number of Chinese applica-tions for patents has increased sixfold. In the“Research without Borders” section of this issueof Pictures of the Future (pp. 44–77), we de-scribe how research can be effectively pursuedin our densely networked world, what role isbeing played here by the new social networks,and how to develop products that are perfectlytailored to the growing needs of developingnations and emerging markets.

Many of the developments that have takenplace since 2001 could hardly have been pre-

Our Mission Is the Future

Pictures of the Future | Spring 2011 3

CollectiveIntelligence

Research without Borders

The New Age ofElectricity

Features

112 Scenario 2035Energy Comes Home

114 TrendsElectrifying Times

117 Smart BuildingsAutomation’s Ground Floor Opportunity

120 Renewable Energy in the GridPreparing for a Flood of Green Power

122 Smart GridsNo Longer a One-Way Street

124 Lighting SystemsLet the Sun Shine In!

126 ElectrolysisSecond Wind for Hydrogen

128 Tidal Current Power PlantsTapping Invisible Rivers

130 Drinking WaterDesalination: Plunging Price

132 Interviews: Powering China’s DreamProf. Li Junfeng, Prof. Du Xiangwan, and Dr. Shi Zhengrong on the Future of China’s Energy Supplies

134 Electric VehiclesJust Plug ‘er in!

137 Facts and ForecastsOur Evolving Energy Mix

138 Biogas PlantsMaximum Methane

144 Scenario 2030Cosmic Mystery

146 TrendsNetworking Knowledge

149 University Collaborations Meeting of Minds in Cyberspace

150 Research CooperationUniting European Expertise

152 Interview with Prof. Alois MoosmüllerIntercultural Communications

154 Learning CampusInternational School of Thought

156 Innovation in Emerging MarketsProducts Set to Sizzle

158 Chinese MedicineWhen Worlds Combine

160 Portrait of Charles CoushaineThe Idea Generator

162 Portrait of Ramesh VisvanathanSystems that See What’s Important

163 Portrait of Heike BarlagPlugging into Motivation

164 Portrait of Michael ShoreOn a Roll Worldwide

166 Portrait of Li PanPaths to the Heart

167 Interview with Prof. Eugene WongA World of Opportunities

168 Facts and ForecastsEmerging Markets Catching up in R&D

170 Biograph mMRHybrid Insights

172 Wind in MaliDo-it-Yourself Power

174 SkolkovoHeading for Russia’s Science City

175 PatentsProtecting Success

180 Scenario 2030The City Speaks

182 TrendsZettabyte Gold Mine

185 IT in MedicineData Mining Engine

188 Mobile MedicsTracking Illnesses in India

190 Interview with Prof. Thomas W. MaloneNew Models for Human-Machine Collaboration

191 Traffic SystemsGreen Light for Vehicle-to-Infrastructure Communications

194 City CockpitReal-Time Government

196 Logistics in the Auto IndustryWheeler-Dealer Agents

197 Wind FarmsTurning Many into One

199 Sensor NetworksInstant Communities

102 Interview with Prof. Dirk HeckmannData: Where is it? Who Owns it?

104 Facts and ForecastsCloud Services and Social Networks

105 IT SecurityA Step Ahead of Intruders

106 Social MediaEnterprise 2.0

109 Cloud ComputingWhen the Sky’s the Limit

112 Interview with Prof. Gerhard WeikumMelding Soft Data and Machine Intelligence

184 Book Recommendation: Life in 2050How We Invent the Future Today

185 Short Takes News from Siemens’ Labs

187 100 Years of SuperconductivitySupercool Anniversary

188 Sustainable Cities: Rio and LondonTop Efficiency in the Docklands

189 Asian Green City IndexBuilding a Better Quality of Life

140 Sustainability in the GulfOpening New Horizons

178 GalileoA World of Precision Services

114 Feedback115 Preview

Pictures of the Future | Contents

Pictures of the Future | Spring 2011 5

Recharging electric vehicles will become faster, safer, and more con-venient thanks to a new charging station developed by Siemens.

The system can fully recharge standard batteries with a power of 22 kilo-watts (kW) within one hour using alternating current. Safety has veryhigh priority. Thus, the station’s power socket does not carry any voltageuntil the vehicle is connected, the user registers with a non-contact chipcard and launches the charging and payment process on a display.

But in the future, motorists may not even need a cable to rechargetheir electric cars’ batteries. A non-contact inductive charging technolo-gy developed by Siemens Corporate Technology and BMW works if driv-ers only make a short stop to recharge — at cab stands, for example. Thecharging stations can be easily incorporated into practically any setting,making them almost invisible and effectively protecting them from van-dalism and wear and tear. The charging station is connected to the pub-lic grid by a primary coil that is completely underground. A secondarycoil is mounted under the car; the distance between the two coils is typ-ically between eight and 15 centimeters. When the driver starts thecharging process, an electric current begins to flow through the primarycoil, creating a magnetic field. This induces an electric current in the sec-ondary coil, which recharges the battery. Electricity is transmitted fromthe grid at 3.6 kW through all of the components to the battery at an ef-ficiency of over 90 percent. The magnetic field is generated only in anexactly predetermined area between the two coils. In summer 2011 sev-eral vehicles will be used to test the systems’ capabilities in Berlin. hd

Pictures of the Future | Short Takes

How to Charge ElectricCars without a Cable

Anew gas sensor from Siemens can tell hours ahead oftime if someone is at risk of experiencing an asthma

attack. The system analyzes an asthma sufferer’s breathand registers whether the user’s air passages are about tobecome inflamed. This enables the patient to take anti-in-flammatory medication in time to prevent an attack. A pro-totype unit outfitted with the new sensor is just as sensi-tive as larger systems that are more expensive and hardlyportable.

Sensor Warns ofAsthma Attack

The sun’s position varies depending on the time of day and year, so most sunlight hits solarcells mounted on fixed panels at an oblique angle. Maximum electricity yield is achieved

only when sunlight strikes cells perpendicular to their surface. With this in mind, Siemens hascome up with software that allows photovoltaic modules on movable mountings to preciselyfollow the sun. The new system’s control software uses parameters such as longitude, lati-tude, and the exact time to calculate the sun’s position. Three-phase alternating current mo-tors align the photovoltaic modules accordingly. They swivel the modules in a semicirclearound the azimuthal support axis, tracking the sun’s daily course from east to west, and tiltthe module around the zenithal axis, tracking the sun’s height according to the time of dayand year. The modules’ energy yield is over 35 percent higher than that of fixed systems. ne

Solar Panels Follow the Light

Thanks to new software, these photovoltaic modules

with movable mountings always follow the sun.

Siemens’ new charging station (left)

can completely recharge an electric car in

an hour. Non-contact charging techniques

are being tested (below).

Thanks to a new gas sensor (above right), asthma patients could

be able to analyze their own breath by blowing into a device.

Previously, the only way to predict an asthma attackwas to conduct expensive pulmonary examinations thatmeasure the patient’s breath to determine the concentra-tion of nitrogen monoxide (NO) gas that is released intothe air passages as a result of inflammation. The patient isat risk of an attack if his or her breath contains heightenedlevels of NO. The Siemens sensor could allow patients toanalyze the NO in their breath themselves. The system firstconverts the NO into nitrogen dioxide and then allows airto flow across the actual sensor. Only those particles sig-naling an attack adhere to the sensor’s surface. This gener-ates a voltage that is measured by a field-effect transistor.The voltage is directly dependent on the concentration ofnitrogen monoxide in the patient’s breath. Depending onthe amount of this gas, the patient will know the minimumdose of medication he or she should take. ne

We are on the threshold of a new era. Ourplanet’s climate is at risk. The century of

oil is coming to an end, and the world’s energysupply must be put on a new and sustainablefoundation. In 2050 the number of people liv-ing in cities will be almost as large as theworld’s entire population today — and for thefirst time in history, there will be more seniorcitizens than children and young people.

Life in 2050How We Invent the Future Today

Pictures of the Future | Book Recommendation

4 Pictures of the Future | Spring 2011

That’s why researchers, inventors, and engi-neers must be more creative today than ever be-fore. Computers as medical assistants, robots ashousehold servants, sensory organs for electriccars, buildings as energy traders, farms in sky-scrapers, ceilings made of light, power plantsin deserts and on the high seas, supercomput-ers the size of peas, virtual universities, onlinefactories — these are not visions but almosttangible realities in laboratories worldwide.

For ten years now the magazine Pictures ofthe Future has been exploring the world of to-morrow. In 20 issues comprising over 2,000pages, Pictures of the Future has been investi-gating future trends and identifying the impor-tant technologies that will shape our lives inthe coming decades. In the new book Life in2050, Ulrich Eberl, Editor-in-Chief of Picturesof the Future, provides for the first time a com-pact, clearly structured summary of the key de-velopments that will determine how we live in

the decades ahead. Considered in the light oftrends in society, business, and politics, thesedevelopments point the way forward as wejourney into the future.

The book is intended primarily for youngreaders who are curious about how innova-tions are born, how various developments af-fect one another, which professions are need-ed, and how they can help to inventtomorrow’s world. But staying informed aboutthe work of today’s research centers and indus-trial companies is important for everyone —from schoolchildren and college students to re-searchers, professors, managers, and politi-cians. Life in 2050 contains 240 pages of clear-ly presented insights into the laboratories ofthe people who create the future and excitingglimpses of the world of tomorrow. It showsthat the challenges of the 21st century can bemastered — if we keep our minds open to po-tential solutions and have the courage to act.

Life in 2050

Ulrich Eberl, Verlag Beltz & Gelberg, €19.95.

Editor, English edition: Arthur F. Pease.

More information and a video are online at

www.siemens.com/innovation/lifein2050Zukunft 2050 (German), Ulrich Eberl, Beltz & Gel-

berg, €17.95. siemens.de/innovation/zukunft2050

Pictures of the Future | Spring 2011 7

Dutch physicist Heike Kamerlingh Onneshad no idea he was launching a scientific

revolution when he became the first person toliquefy helium back in 1908. The process heused resulted for the first time in temperaturesonly two degrees (two Kelvin) above absolutezero (-273 degrees Celsius). Through his cryo-genic experiments in 1911, he discovered thatthe electrical resistance of mercury droppedsuddenly to a barely measurable value at atemperature of four Kelvin (K). Superconduc-tivity — the loss-free transmission of electricalenergy — had been discovered.

Although it would take 46 more years todevelop a theory explaining this phenomenon,scientists nonetheless soon realized its poten-tial. Superconductivity not only offered thepossibility of transporting large amounts ofelectricity over great distances without losses,it could also be used to generate strong mag-netic fields, develop extremely precise meas-urement techniques, and make energy sys-tems more efficient and powerful. But one

major problem remained. Complex and expen-sive cooling technology with the inert gas heli-um seemed to be the only way to achieve thetransition temperature — i.e. the point atwhich the superconducting effect first occurs.Superconductors were therefore simply toocost-intensive for most industrial companies.

But this changed in 1986, when two physi-cists, Alex Müller from Switzerland and GeorgBednorz from Germany, discovered a ceramiccompound, lanthanum barium copper oxide,that becomes superconductive at 35 K. Theyreceived the Nobel Prize in 1987 for their work.Inspired by this so-called high-temperature su-perconductor (HTS), researchers around theworld began searching for substances witheven higher transition temperatures. The HTSrecord is currently held by mercury thalliumbarium calcium copper oxide, whose transitiontemperature is 138 K. The discovery of yttriumbarium copper oxide (transition temperature:92 K) in 1987 made it possible to cool with liq-uid nitrogen at 77 K. Unlike liquid helium, liq-

Pictures of the Future | Superconductivity

Back when Heike Kamerlingh Onnes used liquid helium to cool mercury 100 years ago, he could not have known he was laying the foundation for a new science known as superconductivity. Although this technology is still not used commercially on a large scale, its early applications offer a preview of the things superconductors are capable of.

Supercool Anniversary

Dr. Marjin Pieter Oomen tests the practical

feasibility of a superconducting coil for a future

electrical generator in a cooling basin filled

with liquid nitrogen.

uid nitrogen is a coolant that is easy and rela-tively inexpensive to produce.

However, until HTS technology can be usedon a broad scale, technically complex, high-quality-superconductors will continue to domi-nate the market. Such superconductors can befound today in imaging systems manufacturedby Siemens, such as magnetic resonance to-mographs (MRT). Here, superconducting wiresare made of a niobium-titanium alloy. Thanksto the powerful electric currents flowingthrough them, these superconducting mag-nets generate very strong magnetic fields ofseveral tesla — stronger than those created byHTS. Stronger magnetic fields in an MRT resultin better signal-to-noise ratios and sharper im-ages.

Ship Propulsion with Superconductors.The first commercial HTS-based applicationsare gradually emerging in Siemens’ Industryand Energy Sectors. Working with Siemens’Marine Solutions and Large Drives businessunits, researchers at Siemens Corporate Tech-nology (CT) have developed an HTS shippropulsion unit whose rotor displays no electri-cal losses although the superconductors in therotor coils have a current density 100 timesgreater than that of copper coils. This makes itpossible to reduce weight and volume by up to50 percent; since fewer materials are used,costs are also significantly lower. This is impor-tant for ship operators, whose propulsion sys-tems are subject to size limitations.

CT researchers are also examining the useof HTS current limiters at high-voltage facili-ties. These limiters can automatically and rap-idly protect power grids in the event of shortcircuits, thus preventing damage to cables,transformers, and generators. Another re-search focus is on HTS coils that can cut powerplant generator losses in half. HTS cables in agenerator rotor must withstand centrifugal ac-celerations 5,000 times greater than the accel-eration due to the Earth’s gravity. They alsomust be reliably cooled to 33 K. In February2011 a project for building an HTS test rig forsuch a power plant generator application waslaunched with funding from Germany’s Min-istry of Economics and Technology. The projectis being coordinated by CT and carried out incooperation with the Karlsruhe Institute ofTechnology (KIT). The project’s long-term ob-jective is to develop a prototype HTS generatorwith an output of several hundred megawatts.

Despite all these projects and successes,the potential of superconductors is far from ex-hausted. Scientists are sure that Onnes’ discov-ery will be the foundation of many future ap-plications, from generators and motors tocurrent limiters and MRTs. So here’s to another“cool” 100 years! Sebastian Webel

6 Pictures of the Future | Spring 2011

The Train of Ideas (above) is a mobile exhibition about green cities. The train’s six containers

provide insights into the world of tomorrow.

With a view to addressing the challenges posed by environmental protection in ur-ban areas, the city of Hamburg, Germany, which is the recipient of the European

Commission’s 2011 Green Capital Award, has organized an interactive exhibitioncalled “Visions for the Cities of the Future.” This April, as part of the exhibition, the citylaunched its “Train of Ideas” for a European tour. The train showcases more than 100projects from throughout Europe, presenting them in over 70 exhibits and on 26touch screens. This mobile exhibition, which is housed in six display containers, is tar-geted at a general audience. It provides a thrilling, easily understandable look at top-ics such as mobility, energy, and energy use. The topics are addressed from perspec-tives that range from personal and local to regional and global. As a premium partnerfor green infrastructure, Siemens is supporting Hamburg by supplying some of thetrain’s equipment. Among other things, the company has provided the train with thelatest model of an energy-efficient locomotive, supplied a number of exhibits, and en-abled visitors to experience electric mobility and smart grids. The company has alsocreated a special issue of Pictures of the Future devoted to green cities. From nowthrough October 2011, the Train of Ideas will tour 18 European cities, including Brus-sels, Vienna, Zurich, Munich, and Paris — some of the places where Hamburg andSiemens plan to hold events on sustainable cities. hd

Green Ideas Take to the Rails

Customers suffering from clogged mail-boxes, long delivery times, and unwant-

ed advertising will soon be able to benefitfrom Trust-Ebox. This automation solutionfrom Siemens will enable postal service com-panies to cost-effectively make physical mailaccessible in digital form. Using new sortingand recognition technology, the system reg-isters images of the envelopes of incomingletters and then forwards these images by e-mail to Trust-Ebox customers. At the click of amouse, customers can then decide which let-ters the service provider should immediatelydestroy and which should be sent by normalmail or be opened and scanned for transmis-sion. The system not only saves customerstime but also radically cuts postal servicecosts. The Swiss Postal Service plans to beginoffering private end customers a Trust-Ebox-based service this summer. hd

ZappingPhysical Mail inits Tracks

The Formula 1 Red Bull Racing team has been using Siemens Teamcenter and NX simulationapplications since 2005. The products enable the team, which is headed by world champion

race car driver Sebastian Vettel, to simulate a vehicle’s performance on a specific track, identifymodifications that could improve results, and order appropriately-modified parts. For example, ifa simulated race shows that a Red Bull car needs more downforce for the track in Monaco, thisdata is immediately passed on to NX developers, who can then adjust the design of the frontfender accordingly. A mouse click then ensures that new parts are cut and pressed right away. Nodata has to be entered by hand or transferred into other IT systems. This has enabled Red BullRacing to accelerate design and manufacturing processes by up to 75 percent. The team’s successspeaks for the software’s effectiveness. In the 2010 season the British team won the Formula 1Championship title in both the driver and constructor ratings. ne

Simulation Software Powers Red Bull to Victory

Siemens simulation software is helping Formula 1

Red Bull Racing cars win the title.

An envelope reader processes over 50,000 pieces

per hour. Subscribers can delete unwanted mail.

Pictures of the Future | Short Takes

Pictures of the Future | Spring 2011 9

Guangzhou is a place where people like towork but prefer not to live” — that’s what

the Chinese say when asked about their mostimportant industrial center. The capital of thesouthern Chinese province of Guangdong,where China’s economic miracle was launched30 years ago, is known for its high wages andpoor quality of life. Guangzhou’s population of7.9 million faces traffic jams, frequent smog,and repeated power shortages in the summer.It’s no surprise that Guangzhou is not consid-ered one of China’s shining cities.

But old proverbs tend to stick even after re-ality has long since changed. WhenGuangzhou welcomed some 9,700 athletes tothe Asian Games in November 2010, itsguests, as well as millions of television view-ers, were surprised to see a city where peopleevidently enjoy spending time after finishingtheir day’s work. A new district has been creat-ed in the city center over the past few years —

an area that boasts sparkling skyscrapers,parks, a riverside promenade, and numerouscultural facilities. In addition, a public rail sys-tem offers hundreds of thousands of residentsan alternative to buses and cars. The trade-mark of the new Guangzhou is the 432-meterWest Tower, whose elegant steel facade standsout as a shining focal point at night.

Guangzhou’s government didn’t pull anyrabbits out of a hat here. Instead, it focused itsplanning activities on the needs of its citizens,utilizing state-of-the-art technology to makethe city more environmentally friendly and ef-ficient, and more pleasant to live in. Many ofthe solutions that were employed originatedwith Siemens (see Pictures of the Future,Spring 2010, p. 38). For example, the compa-ny provided the technology for the high-volt-age direct current transmission system thatsupplies Guangzhou very efficiently with elec-tricity from hydroelectric plants in Yunnan

Pictures of the Future | Asian Green City Index

Asia’s major cities were long considered overpopulated, dirty, and chaotic. But today many of themhave become pioneers in modern urban planning, as shown by the Asian Green City Index, whichgave Singapore an outstanding rating. Siemens technology is helping to improve its sustainability.

Building a Better Quality of Life

Guangzhou in southern China is attracting new

residents with high wages. As it does so, the city is

focusing on improving its environmental sustainabil-

ity by investing in subways, environmentally-friendly

energy supplies, and efficient lighting.

The area near the Royal Victoria light rail-way station has seen better days. In the

19th century, this part of East London was oneof the city’s leading trade centers because ofthe shipping industry. Goods such as wood,rubber, wool, and sugar were unloaded here.But after the docks were closed, the area expe-rienced a period of prolonged decline.

Recently, however, this former industrialwasteland has been experiencing a revival.One of the world’s most prominent financialcenters has sprung up on the opposite bank ofthe Thames, at Canary Wharf. Not far fromthere is the OH2 entertainment center, betterknown as the Millennium Dome. And soon the2012 Olympics will bring numerous brand-

new buildings, thus further improving theneighborhood.

What’s more, the Royal Victoria station willsoon acquire a striking new neighbor that willrepresent the area’s urban and economic re-newal — a conference, exhibition, and officebuilding on the waterfront, which will be builtby Siemens and is scheduled for completion inspring 2012. The building’s office areas are ex-pected to use only a third of the energy thatwould be used in a conventional building.

This very high level of energy efficiency willbe the result of cutting-edge architecture andintelligent technology. Ground source heatpumps will cool or heat the building through-out the year. Intelligent building management

Pictures of the Future | Sustainable Cities

Top Efficiency in the Docklands

At night, with its arms outstretched, itseems to float high above Rio de Janeiro.

And recently the glow it casts over the city hasbeen even brighter and more colorful. Thecity’s 30-meter-high statue of “Cristo Redentor”has been illuminated with LED projectors fromOsram since March 2011.

The monumental statue was erected 80years ago at a height of 710 meters, on MountCorcovado, which, along with the Sugarloaf, isone of the most impressive peaks in the city. Inthe past, the statue was illuminated in a waste-ful way. The lights that were placed around itin the surrounding jungle consumed 74 kilo-watts (kW). The 300 new projectors that Os-ram installed together with its subsidiary Trax-on — at no cost to the city — now consume amaximum of 17.2 kW. Each of them combinesthe light of 27 or 36 LEDs. This technology notonly saves energy but also generates less heat

than conventional light bulbs — a feature thatbenefits plants and animals.

A further advantage is the fact that the pro-jectors focus their light even more precisely,with the help of special lenses. This makes itpossible to illuminate individual parts of thestatue, such as the left or right hands, theheart or the head. Thanks to the use of differ-ent colored LEDs, it is now also possible tochange colors faster to create different moods;this was previously done by placing differentcolored foils in front of the lights by hand. Thisopens up new possibilities for light shows, ac-cording to light designer Peter Gasper, who isthe artistic director of the new system. “It usedto be a laborious task, and sometimes entirelyimpossible, to change the mood lighting of themonument,” he says. “But with the new projec-tors we can adjust the lighting quickly and eas-ily.” Andreas Kleinschmidt

Light in the Night

The statue of Christ in Rio de Janeiro is now more effi-

ciently illuminated thanks to LEDs.

The city of the future will be on display in an energy-efficient Siemens building in London’s Docklands.

8 Pictures of the Future | Spring 2011

technology and energy-efficient devices suchas LED lamps will do their part to save enor-mous amounts of electricity. The facade willprovide high levels of natural daylight whilebeing thermally efficient to keep heat in dur-ing the winter and out during the summer.Photovoltaic panels covering the roof will helppower the building; rainwater harvesting willprovide water for bathrooms and landscape ir-rigation surrounding the site.

Thus the center will not only inform visitorsabout the numerous possibilities of sustain-able urban development, but will also be a liv-ing demonstration of the same. Quite aptly,the new center will also be part of London’snew Green Enterprise District, an area de-signed to attract low-carbon businesses in par-ticular. Such companies provide products andservices that generate low CO2 emissions orhelp to reduce emissions. The Mayor of Lon-don, Boris Johnson, explains, “We envisage theDistrict as a vibrant international hub incubat-ing dozens of low-carbon businesses to trans-form what have historically been some of thepoorest parts of the capital.” The area certainlyrepresents an ironic twist of history. This neigh-borhood, which has experienced both thehighs and the lows of the coal-driven industrialrevolution, will now host the urban spaces ofthe future. The area will offer a home to com-panies that earn money by conserving energyrather than wasting it. Andreas Kleinschmidt

Pictures of the Future | Spring 2011 11

In Latin America, Battle for Climate Focuses on Cities

In 2007, for the first time in history, more people lived in cities than in the countryside. However, in Lat-

in America, this turning point had already been reached in the 1960s. Today more than 80 percent of

Latin Americans live in urban areas. The Latin American Green City Index, a study that was carried out on

behalf of Siemens by the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU), examines the challenges and opportunities

associated with this development. The study was presented in November 2010 in Mexico City. It exam-

ined the environmental sustainability of 17 cities with populations in excess of one million in eight Latin

American countries. Its most important finding was that cities without an integrated long-term strategy

received below-average ratings.

An impressive positive example of sustainability is offered by the Brazilian city of Curitiba, which was

named Latin America’s “greenest” city, among other things because of its long-term approach. For more

than 40 years, Curitiba has been pursuing a strategy for effectively managing urban growth and traffic

planning. “The fact that the residents of Curitiba actively participate in the political process has also

played a big role in the city’s achievements,” said Curitiba’s mayor, Luciano Ducci, while he was in Mexico

City to sign the “Mexico City Pact” with 137 other mayors from around the world. The pact obliges the

signatories to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions as part of the World Mayors Summit on Climate.

Mexico City was an ideal venue for the agreement, as the Mexican capital’s consistent environmental

protection measures are setting an example for the rest of the world.

On the day the pact was signed, Pedro Miranda, head of the Siemens One project that consolidates sus-

tainable urban development activities at the Group, said, “The battle to save the Earth’s climate must be

fought and won in the world’s cities, because it’s the cities that are responsible for around 80 percent of

man-made CO2 emissions.” Modern technology is a must if CO2 emissions from cities are to be reduced.

This can be seen in Latin America, where Siemens is providing state-of-the-art technologies to help

Buenos Aires and Lima, for example, to expand their rail networks. Siemens is also supporting Brazil’s na-

tional energy supplier with the installation of a new energy management system for Rio de Janeiro,

Brasilia, and other cities that will mark the first component in a future Brazilian smart grid.

These examples illustrate that products and services from the Siemens Environmental Portfolio are being

used not only in highly developed industrial countries but also in an increasing number of emerging

markets in Latin America. The economic importance of these countries will grow significantly in coming

years — along with the populations of their cities. Andreas Kleinschmidt

the environment. Siemens has carried out sim-ilar projects in many Asian cities. KualaLumpur’s airport rail line uses Siemens controlsystems, as do West Rail in Hong Kong and thenew subway lines in Beijing and Nanjing.

All of these examples show that two ele-ments are always required for contemporary

urban planning: on the one hand, political willand farsightedness on the part of the decision-makers; on the other, technical innovationsthat enable the construction of an environ-mentally friendly, energy-efficient, and eco-nomical infrastructure. Asia’s megacities cancount on both. Bernhard Bartsch

achieved with state-of-the-art technologieshave a huge effect. The potential for improve-ment here is being demonstrated by Siemensin seven of its own offices and factories in In-dia, where the company will invest €1.7 mil-lion over the next two years to make its build-ings state-of-the-art, leading to a planned 15percent increase in energy efficiency. Thismodernization is not only environmentallysound and climate-friendly; it also makes eco-nomic sense, because the lower energy con-sumption will allow Siemens to recoup its in-vestment in less than four years.

Cutting Energy Use by One Third. Siemensis also modernizing buildings belonging toSouth Korea’s largest department store chain,Shinsegae, which is based in Seoul. More effi-cient air conditioners, electricity supplies, andlighting systems will enable Shinsegae to cutelectricity consumption by one third and re-duce operating costs by 20 percent. Siemenshas implemented similar projects in manyAsian cities. The Olympic swimming stadiumfor the Olympic Games in Beijing and the Chi-nese Pavilion at the Expo in Shanghai wereequipped with Siemens building technologies— as were the Petronas Twin Towers in KualaLumpur, the Taipei 101 skyscraper, and the Pa-cific Place high-rise building in Jakarta.

Transport systems are the second-largestenergy consumers in cities. Owning a car is ascherished a dream for Asia’s middle class as it isfor people in established industrialized na-tions. But the dream usually turns into a traffic-jam nightmare in Asian megacities, so urbanplanners are building subways and commuterrail systems that offer an attractive alternativeto automobiles. The larger and more complexthe systems get, however, the greater are thedemands placed on the control technologyneeded to coordinate them and ensure ex-tremely short intervals between trains.

Bangkok offers a good example of successin this area. The number of cars in the Thaicapital has doubled since 1990 and now totals5.5 million. At the end of the 1990s, urbanplanners in Bangkok therefore commissionedSiemens to build the city’s first rapid transit railsystem — the Skytrain BTS (see Pictures of theFuture, Spring 2006, p. 26). The 23-kilometerline carries 400,000 passengers a day, and itssuccess led to a follow-up order for Bangkok’sfirst subway, which now transports 180,000people each day.

In 2010 Siemens completed its third rapidtransit rail line for Bangkok, which links thenew Suvarnabhumi Airport with the city cen-ter. As a result, over 600,000 people a day whowould otherwise take buses, taxis, or theirown cars now use Bangkok’s rail systems, eas-ing the burden on both the city’s streets and

10 Pictures of the Future | Spring 2011

Guangzhou and neighboring Foshan. Theshimmering West Tower is “engineered bySiemens” as well. The 10,000 LEDs that illumi-nate the building were produced by Osram.

What has happened in Guangzhou is alsooccurring in many other large Asian cities. In-deed, the continent is undergoing the biggestefficiency transformation in the world at themoment — and its cities are the protagonists.Many of the region’s megacities are now pio-neers of modern urban development, as is evi-denced by the Asian Green City Index. This in-dex, along with those for Europe and LatinAmerica, was produced by the Economist Intel-ligence Unit (EIU) on behalf of Siemens. It de-livers objective data that helps cities improvetheir environmental sustainability by providinga foundation for sharing knowledge.

200 Cities with Over One Million People.The challenges being faced by Asian cities to-day are immense. Over the last five yearsalone, their population has been growing byaround 100,000 every day. Experts predict thatChina will have well over 200 cities with morethan a million people by 2025. The figure for2011 is 90. By comparison, there are 25 citiesin Europe whose populations exceed one mil-lion. Sustainability is therefore no longer sim-ply the latest fashion for urban planners — it’sa minimal requirement. According to the AsianDevelopment Bank, Asian cities need to build20,000 new apartment units and 250 kilome-ters of new roads every day — not to mention

Kong, Osaka, Seoul, Taipei, Tokyo, and Yoko-hama received above-average ratings. “Theanalysis of cities in Asia very clearly shows thathigher income doesn’t necessarily translateinto higher resource consumption,” says JanFriederich, who headed the research team forthe EIU study. Although it’s true that resourceconsumption rises sharply up to an annual percapita gross domestic product of around€15,000, it declines again as per capita incomeincreases further.

Among the more positive findings of thestudy is the fact that at 4.6 tons, average annu-al per capita CO2 emissionsin the 22 Asian cities stud-ied are lower than in Eu-rope (5.2 tons of CO2 percapita per year). Asian citiesalso produce 375 kg ofgarbage annually per capi-ta, much less than cities inLatin America (465 kg) and Europe (511 kg).However, Asian cities need to catch up when itcomes to air pollution and renewable energysources, which account for only 11 percent oftotal electricity production in Asia. That’s farbelow the figure for Latin America, where ex-tensive use of hydroelectric power makes for a64 percent share.

The citizens of Singapore are very proudthat their city-state has been able to make theleap from the Third World to the First World injust half a century (see Pictures of the Future,Spring 2010, p. 44). This was made possible by

lization of innovative government administra-tion systems (see p. 94).

One of the city-state’s most recent initia-tives for further improving environmental andclimate protection and reducing energy con-sumption is a regulation stipulating that newbuildings must comply with even higher stan-dards for energy efficiency and environmentalfriendliness in the future. Singapore alreadyhas a reference project for this, the “CitySquare Mall,” a shopping complex that demon-strates that expansive buildings can also be ef-ficient. Sophisticated sensor controls for light-

ing, ventilation, and air conditioning at the65,000-square-meter mall generate annualelectricity savings of 11 million kilowatt hours,the equivalent of the power consumed by2,000 four-room apartments. To ensure thateveryone knows that this really is the case,video screens at the mall display the facility’sreal-time electricity and water consumptionfigures, as well as other parameters.

The impact of such projects extends far be-yond Singapore. That’s because buildings ac-count for 40 percent of global energy con-sumption, which means that the savings

An efficient public transport system is helping to improve the quality of life in Guangzhou (left) and Bangkok (center). Tokyo now offers electric bikes for rent.

province, located 1,400 kilometers away. Thisnot only stabilizes the power grid, but also pro-tects the environmental by supplyingGuangzhou with energy from renewablesources. Siemens also supplied the signalingsystems for several of the city’s subway linesand the commuter railroad between

the infrastructure for transporting an addition-al six million liters of drinking water per day —if they are going to manage this population in-crease.

Singapore has done a very good job of mas-tering these challenges. It achieved the best re-sult in the Asian Green City Index, while Hong

a far-sighted strategy involving systematic in-vestments in education and research. Todaythe country is one of the leading centers forwater purification technology (see p. 30). Sin-gapore also has one of the world’s best publictransport networks and has earned a reputa-tion as a pioneer in the development and uti-

“Higher income doesn’t necessarily translate into higher resource consumption.”

The road to the new era of electricity isbumpy and overgrown by high grass. The

bush rises up on both sides of the dirt road likea solid multicolored wall. Now and then aclearing appears, giving us a view of a giraffeor two as we almost soundlessly roll past. For

Pictures of the Future | Spring 2011 1312 Pictures of the Future | Spring 2011

The New Age of Electricity | Scenario 2035

Central Africa in 2035. In the middle of the bush stands a remote village that used to be dependent on fire wood for power.But now the government has equipped it with renewable technologies and catapulted it into a new era. A visiting journalistdiscovers how electricity has changed the inhabitants’ lives.

Energy Comes Home

Highlights17 Buildings Join the Energy Picture

In the future, buildings will be ableto independently adjust their powerconsumption to the current supply ofrenewable energies — and automati-cally turn off power guzzlers withoutcompromising comfort levels.

22 Smart Grids: Two-Way Streets At the Smart Grid laboratory in Erlangen, Siemens researchers are working on the smart grid of tomorrow. The future has already begun inthe Swiss town of Arbonin, where smart meters have revolutionized the energy supply system.

26 Second Wind for HydrogenSiemens scientists are using excesswind power to produce hydrogen byelectrolysis — and are thus layingthe foundation for tomorrow’s energy storage systems.

28 Tapping Invisible RiversTidal power plants operate like under-water wind turbines, producing ener-gy from the ebb and flow of the tides.In Northern Ireland, such a plant isalready supplying 1,500 householdswith energy from the sea.

34 Just Plug ‘er in!Siemens is using a large-scale fleet tri-al to test the reliability of electric vehi-cles in daily operation. Up to a hun-dred Siemens employees are beingprovided with electric cars for thispurpose. The trial will focus onrecharging technology and commu-nications between drivers, chargingstations, and the power grid.

2035The age of electricity has begun in a small

village in central Africa that was previously

cut off from the outside world. Wind turbines

and a biogas power plant now supply renew-

able energy. Villagers use the electricity to

operate household appliances, charging

stations for electric vehicles, and streetlights.

The village’s medical center is equipped with

a solar-powered cooling and air-conditioning

system.

Pictures of the Future | Spring 2011 15

The New Electrical Age | Trends

For most of us, life without electricity would be unthinkable. And with global generation capacity expected to grow by two thirds by 2030, electricity is set to provide even stiffer competition for other sources of energy in areas such as transportation, industry, and even the desalination of seawater. In short, the world is on the threshold of a new age of electricity.

In 1878, King Ludwig II of Bavaria had an grotto

built at Linderhof Palace. It was lit by 24 dynamos

based on a discovery made by Werner v. Siemens. The

dynamo was the forerunner of today’s generators.

Electrifying Times

candescent light bulb and Siemens’ discoveryof the dynamo-electric principle, which madeit relatively easy to generate large quantities ofelectricity, more and more cities around theworld began to take the first tentative stepsinto the age of electricity.

By the mid-1880s cities such as New York,London, and Berlin were a blaze of electriclight. In the mean time, Siemens developedthe first electrically powered locomotive in1879 and the first electric streetcar in 1881. By1890 the world’s first electric subway was inoperation beneath the streets of London, andin 1905 Siemens began construction in Berlinof the Elektrische Viktoria, an electric automo-bile that was mainly used as a hotel taxi.

During the 20th century, the use of electric-ity rapidly gathered pace. “One milestone wasthe transition from steam to electrically-pow-ered drives,” explains Umbach. “Today, you’llfind highly efficient electric motors in use al-

most everywhere — in electric toothbrushes,in trains, in industrial processes.” In fact, manyaspects of everyday life would be unthinkablewithout electricity. These range from the hometo public transportation, communications, IT,and healthcare.

More than a Passing Trend. What’s more,the age of electricity is by no means on thewane. According to a study by the KIT, electric-ity currently accounts for 22 percent of totalenergy consumption in Germany. The largestshare goes to industry, with 43 percent, fol-lowed by private households, trade, com-merce, and services, each with 27 percent. TheKIT forecasts that consumption will continue torise in all of these sectors by as much as 1.4percent a year. “We’re also seeing a shift toelectricity from other forms of energy,” saysUmbach. All in all, the International EnergyAgency predicts that global electricity con-

tricity is therefore the perfect energy carrier.Ludwig II was not the only person to profitfrom this new form of power. Only a few yearsafter the fairytale king had installed electriclight in his castles, the general public also be-gan to enjoy its benefits. In the wake ofThomas Alva Edison’s development of the in-

The amazing success story of electricity be-gan in darkness — or at least it did so in

the Kingdom of Bavaria. It was there in thetranquil valley of Graswangtal, almost 140years ago, that the legendary King Ludwig IIushered in a new technological era: the age ofelectricity. On clear winter nights, while therest of the populace slept, the shy monarchwould ride through a moonlit forest in a horse-drawn sleigh. For the lucky few who were for-tunate enough to witness this spectacle, theroyal sled was a magnificent sight — and alsoa glimpse of the future, since it was illuminat-ed by a mysterious light that was almost asbright as day.

Ludwig’s sleigh, which was lit by battery-powered carbon arc lamps from Siemens, wasonly the first of a number of royal follies to fea-ture electrical illumination. In 1878, for exam-ple, the whimsical monarch commissioned theconstruction of an artificial cavern, hiddenaway on the grounds of Linderhof Palace.Complete with an underground lake and a wa-

terfall, it was modeled on the Grotto of Venusin Richard Wagner’s opera Tannhäuser and theBlue Grotto on the island of Capri. Some 24Schuckert dynamos, based on a concept dis-covered by Werner von Siemens and driven bya steam engine housed in a specially-built ma-chine building, provided power for the light-ing. It was the world’s first small-scale generat-ing facility — four years before the EdisonElectric Light Station in London and the PearlStreet Station in New York, both built in 1882and generally regarded as the world’s first pub-lic power plants.

“Electricity has many advantages, not leastthe fact that it’s highly flexible and easy touse,” says Prof. Eberhard Umbach, President ofthe Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT). “Itserves to produce light, heat, and mechanicalmotion, and when the electricity itself is gener-ated with renewable energy it doesn’t gener-ate any greenhouse gases.” For Umbach, elec-

14 Pictures of the Future | Spring 2011

some time now, the bush taxis here in centralAfrica have been electric. If our battery shouldgive out in rough terrain, a small combustionengine can extend our vehicle’s range. At thewheel is district physician Dr. Salim Taylor, whois our tour guide for today. He has a rather un-healthy lifestyle for a doctor — there’s always acigar in the corner of his mouth, and his driv-ing style is almost as wild as the surroundinglandscape. But hardly anyone else on this sideof the equator is as well informed about thiscountry’s development and inhabitants as heis. Taylor is on the way to his weekly outpatientclinic in a remote village, where he plans toview the initial results of a development pro-gram that has literally electrified the village.

“Rats!” curses Taylor as the right front wheelsuddenly disappears into a very deep pothole.“This is the tenth aardvark hole since we leftthe gravel road.” He pulls out a fresh cigar andlights it with a snap of his lighter. “This ‘road’doesn’t deserve its name, but the village upahead has really changed unbelievably,” hesays. Taylor knows this better than anyoneelse, because he was there last year whentechnicians catapulted the village from itsStone Age past into the new age of electricity.He advised the government officials in chargeof the project and provided support for the vil-lagers.

Previously, the village had in effect been cutoff from the outside world, without electricityor access to communication networks — ananachronism that has become rare today, evenin Africa. Through its new program for sustain-able development in remote regions, the gov-ernment is trying to remove the “emptyspaces” from the country’s map. “It’s a questionof evolution rather than revolution,” says Tay-lor. “We’re not trying to abolish the village’s so-cial structures and traditions; instead, we aimto improve people’s living conditions.”

He points to the vegetation on both sides ofthe road. “Have you noticed? Even thoughwe’ve already almost reached the village, theovergrowth is still as thick as ever. A few yearsago the area around the village was complete-ly deforested — but today the people nolonger need to gather firewood.” Taylor puffsout a cloud of cigar smoke and bumps throughyet another pothole. The bush slowly thins out,revealing a view of a vast plain. We descendfrom a small hill, at whose foot lies the village.

At first glance the collection of round hutslooks more traditional than progressive. How-ever, in the savanna behind the village standthree wind turbines turning lazily in the lightbreeze. And in the middle of the village is aneye-catching modern building with rooftop so-lar cells flashing in the sun. What’s more, acloser look reveals rows of metal poles thatsupport LED streetlights.

“We’ve arrived,” says Taylor with a smile,then climbs out of the vehicle with a grunt ofrelief. “That’s the medical center,” he says,pointing to the building with the solar cells. “Ithas a cooling and air conditioning system thatis solar-powered and uses an absorption refrig-erator. The system keeps the building refresh-ingly cool. But today we’re making housecalls.” He pulls a tablet PC out of his pocket andgreets Abdul, the village mayor. “Abdul issomething like a paramedic. He keeps regularrecords of how my patients in the village aredoing and sends me the data by radio. Thedata might consist of photographs of the find-ings or the results of blood tests he carries outwith automatic test devices no larger than acell phone. So I’m always well-informed aboutmy patients’ current state of health.”

On the way to the first patient we pass acylindrical container flanked by a couple ofelectric charging stations. “That’s our biogaspower plant,” says Abdul proudly, tapping theside of the tank. “We feed it with plant clip-pings and manure. The bacteria in the tank useit to produce methane, which is then automat-ically turned into electricity. Together with thewind turbines, this power plant makes us ener-gy self-sufficient.” He points to the chargingstations and says, “Don’t forget to unplug yourvehicle when you’ve finished, Salim!”

As we approach the patient’s round grass-roofed hut, we can hear soft music. The potsimmering on the stove gives off a spicy aro-ma, and an LED lamp hangs from the ceiling.“Aardvark stew,” says Taylor with satisfaction ashe takes a look at his tablet PC. “My young pa-tient is obviously doing better.” He points to aboy lying on a bed, who looks to be abouttwelve years old. “Does he have malaria?” I ask.“We’ve hardly seen any cases of malaria sincethe last round of vaccinations,” Taylor answers.“Snake bites aren’t so critical any more either.Thanks to the stable power supply, we nowhave refrigeration at the medical center. Thisallows us to stock enough serum and othermedications to take care of many conditions.Now that the village has entered the age ofelectricity, the villagers are no longer as vulner-able as they were before. Previously, if an acci-dent happened there was no way to get help.Today, people can call for help on a cell phoneor get to the medical center on an electric bike.This boy was such a case. He was riding hisbike without a helmet and had a crash thatgave him a concussion.”

The doctor shines a flashlight into the boy’seyes. “Was he going too fast?” I ask. “He hit anaardvark hole,” Taylor grins and nods to thewoman at the stove, who is holding out a ladleof stew for him to sample. “By the way, thecause of the accident didn’t survive the crash.”

Florian Martini

Pictures of the Future | Spring 2011 17

The New Age of Electricity | Smart Buildings

In the future, smart buildings will autonomously adjust their electricity consumption to fluctuating supplies of solar and wind power. A recent study demonstrates the technical feasibilityof this approach, which could involve adjusting ventilation systems and pumps without sacrificingcomfort. Switching off high-consumption devices to prevent grid overloads has long been common practice in the U.S. New automation technologies will make it even more efficient.

Future buildings will autonomously adjust their

power consumption to supplies of renewable energy

by adjusting heating and cooling systems and using

electric cars for energy storage.

The roofs of many one-family houses arecovered with shiny blue-black photovoltaic

modules, hills are dotted with wind turbines,and offshore wind farms generate power inplaces like the North and Baltic Seas. However,electricity from the sun and wind is unreliable,because the energy produced fluctuates withthe weather. Wind facilities now account forroughly seven percent of all the electricity gen-erated in Germany, with almost two percent

Automation’s Ground Floor Opportunity

16 Pictures of the Future | Spring 2011

sumption will increase by around 70 percentby 2035. In other words, we are on the thresh-old of a new age of electricity.

According to Umbach, electricity is going toprovide serious competition for the conven-tional heating systems used in today’s build-ings. Electrical heat pumps, for example, aremore efficient at providing warmth than car-bon fuel-based systems, particularly now thatimproved thermal insulation is progressivelyreducing the amount of energy that buildingsrequire for heating purposes. Moreover, ac-cording to the Federal Association of the HeatPump Industry, emissions of the environmen-tally harmful gas CO2 caused by heat pumpsare around 40 percent lower than those fromgas-fired heating. “The generation of heat forbuildings is the largest consumer of energy inindustrial nations,” says Umbach. “I see big po-tential for electricity here.”

New Applications for Power. Commercialand residential buildings are an area wherenew developments can be expected. Re-searchers are investigating the use of networksof tiny sensors to transmit data on parameterssuch as temperature and CO2 concentrationsto an intelligent building management system(p. 99). Thus equipped, a new generation ofsmart buildings could become active agentson the power market and automatically adjusttheir consumption to fluctuating supplies ofsolar and wind energy. As a recent study bySiemens and the Technical University of Mu-nich shows, such a vision is by no means unre-alistic (p.17). The study demonstrates that it isperfectly feasible to ramp down air condition-ing and heat pumps without compromisingcomfort within a building.

In order to ensure that green power reachesconsumers more efficiently, grid technologywill also need to smarten up its act. Engineersfrom Siemens Corporate Technology are cur-rently working on this problem at a special testfacility in Erlangen (p. 22). Here they are busydeveloping special control algorithms andhardware components for the smart grids of

the future. To date, results have been highlyencouraging, and now a pilot project to testthe findings has been launched using the gridof power company Allgäuer Überlandwerk(AÜW) in southern Germany.

Electric Mobility. Another area in which elec-tricity could be an alternative to carbon fuels isroad transportation. According to the KIT,transportation currently accounts for a merefour percent of electricity consumption in Ger-many. Practically all of this is for rail transport,90 percent of which is electrified. Meanwhile,roads remain dominated by vehicles equippedwith internal combustion engines, which areresponsible for around 20 percent of total CO2

emissions worldwide. Given climate change,however, and the increasing difficulty of tap-ping the earth’s remaining oil reserves, re-searchers at KIT confidently predict the comingof age of the electric automobile. Just when amass market begins to de-velop will depend on whenthe technology — charg-ing systems, for example— has become affordableand practical for everydayuse. At Siemens, engineersare investigating conceptsto advance the development of electric mobili-ty. At the end of last year, for example, thecompany launched a major field trial with em-ployees testing a fleet of around 100 electricvehicles (p. 34). The project’s goal is to exam-ine not only the everyday practicality of elec-tric cars but also the overall system itself andthe interplay between various components —ranging from the generation and distributionof power to the process of recharging vehicles.Technologies for the drive, communications,and charging systems have been developed bySiemens and will be progressively installed inthe company’s electric vehicles in the course ofthe project.

Electricity will also be required in many oth-er areas. These include the desalination of sea-water. In Singapore, for example, Siemens re-

searchers have developed a desalination plantthat works by means of electrical fields (p. 30).Conventionally, seawater is desalinated usingeither evaporation or reverse osmosis process-es, both of which are extremely energy-inten-sive. The new technology requires only half asmuch energy — and that amounts to a techno-logical revolution. Since December 2010, a pi-lot plant has been converting seawater highlyefficiently into pure drinking water.

The future will also bring new ways of gen-erating electricity. These include tidal energysystems, which function like underwater windturbines. A number of these are already in op-eration at various locations, including thecoast of Northern Ireland, where SeaGen wentinto operation in 2008. With an output of 1.2megawatts, enough to supply 1,500 house-holds, it is currently the most powerful tidalcurrent power plant in the world (p. 28). “Elec-tricity has virtually limitless applications,” says

Umbach. Whether these are realized or not willdepend on a number of constraints, not leastthe future price of power. “The best route to asustainable future is not yet clear,” he empha-sizes. “That’s why it’s crucial to continue in-tense research in all areas and not neglect otherenergy carriers such as synthetic hydrocarbonfuels and hydrogen.” For the purposes of stor-age, for example, excess wind-generated pow-er could be converted into a chemical energycarrier. Here too, Siemens is working on such asystem — one that uses hydrogen (p. 26). Ac-cording to Umbach, when it comes to master-ing future challenges, the most importantthing is to combine a firm grip on reality with awell-developed sense of imagination — some-thing that takes us right back to Ludwig II,Bavaria’s eccentric monarch. Florian Martini

Ludwig II equipped his horse-drawn sleigh with battery-powered carbon arc lamps; by 1905 the first electric cars from Siemens were on the streets of Berlin (shown

during a battery change); and in 2011 the company fitted several Porsche models with ultramodern electric motors.

Experts predict that global electricityconsumption will increase by as much as 70 percent by 2035.

Pictures of the Future | Spring 2011 19

have an energy content of roughly 40 gigawatthours of electricity — the combined capacityof all German pumped storage units.

Consumption Follows Production. Andnow, a new potential solution to the energypuzzle is emerging — one that could be imple-mented by simply introducing a sophisticatedsoftware package. Known as “load shifting,”the idea is to manage electricity consumers, orloads, in buildings in such a way that they aremainly allowed to occur only when windmillsand photovoltaic modules are generating sur-plus power — i.e. when electricity is cheap.Conversely, as much electrical equipment aspossible would be powered down at night orwhen winds are weak. This amounts to a para-digm shift, since these days the operation ofgas and coal-fired power plants is geared to-ward energy consumption behavior in house-holds, factories, and offices. But in the future,the situation would be exactly reversed. Build-ings would alter their power demand in linewith current energy supplies. Consumptionwould follow production.

Working with specialists from SiemensBuilding Technologies, researchers at Munich’sTechnical University (TUM) have found that arange of equipment in all kinds of buildingscan be switched on and off in a relatively sim-ple manner. The team spent several monthscollecting data from building managementcenters on everything from ventilation systemand water pump activity to temperatures in of-fices and conference rooms. They examinedquestions such as: How long does it take for anoffice made of lightweight materials to heatup after you turn off the building’s air condi-

tioning system? “The key question for us washow long you can turn off certain equipmentwithout affecting comfort in a room or office,”says Timm Rössel, a research assistant in theDepartment of Building Climatology and Build-ing Services at TUM. German building stan-dards stipulate that office temperatures shouldnot fall below 21 degrees Celsius if comfort isto be maintained. Rössel and his colleague Jo-hannes Jungwirth from the Department of En-ergy Systems and Application Technologies an-alyzed four different building types for theirstudy: office and administrative buildings, hos-pitals, indoor swimming pools, and schools.

They found that load shift potential wasparticularly high in office buildings. For exam-ple, ventilation systems in offices with normaloccupancy can be com-pletely shut down for aslong as half an hour with-out causing rooms to be-come stuffy — and thiscan be done several timesa day. The same goes forventilation systems in un-derground garages. The researchers also ex-amined how often and, more importantly,how fast elevators travel in office buildings.They determined that elevator speed could becut back several hours every day outside themorning and evening rushes, thereby reducingelectricity consumption by around ten percent.They also found that elevator users were notannoyed by the slower speed.

There is also plenty of room for improve-ment in buildings equipped with a service wa-ter system for toilet flushing. The pumps thatfill the system’s tanks could be started with a

delay of as much as 12 hours without any dan-ger of the tanks running empty. And in hospi-tals, energy-saving efforts can focus on sterili-zation equipment for surgical utensils. Inbuildings equipped with indoor swimmingpools, the greatest load shift potential lies inthe compressors used in dehumidification sys-tems, which can actually be shut down for sev-eral hours. The same is true of ozone and UVunits used for water purification.

“The results of the study are important forus because they prove that large buildingshave an overall load shift potential that paysoff,” says Joachim Kiauk, a project manager atSiemens Building Technologies (BT) in Zug,Switzerland, who was responsible for thestudy. “Put simply, Siemens is now developing

software tools with TUM that can be used tomanage building control systems in line withtomorrow’s increasingly renewable-energy-centered electricity supply.”

A new regulation that went into effect thisyear in Germany requires energy suppliers tooffer variable electricity rates that changethroughout the day in line with supply and de-mand. Although the system still does not allowfor extremely short-term price fluctuations, ex-perts believe that in the near future we will beseeing electricity prices that change everyhour or even every 15 minutes. In this sce-

In the future, building management systems will take hundreds of parameters into account in real time in order to alter power demand in response to power availability.

Ventilation in most offices can beshut down for half an hour withoutcausing rooms to become stuffy.

18 Pictures of the Future | Spring 2011

Soon, Solar Energy Could Keep Your Office Cool

In the northern hemisphere, most energy consumption results from the need to generate heat. The

colder a winter, the higher the consumption of natural gas and heating oil. But in hot climates, air condi-

tioners account for a considerable amount of electricity consumption, and therefore of carbon dioxide

emissions. To address this problem, Siemens researchers in Bangalore, India, are developing a solar re-

frigeration system that generates its own electricity, allowing it to operate without an external power

supply.

In India, given the country’s generally hot, muggy climate, people require plenty of cool air. As a result,

around 60 percent of the electricity consumed in India’s office buildings in the daytime isn’t used to

power lamps, computers, or servers, but to keep inefficient air conditioners running. This is why devel-

opers from Siemens Corporate Technology in Bangalore are developing a refrigeration system that runs

on electricity it generates itself. The device consists of a light collection system for capturing heat from

the sun and a photovoltaic unit for generating electricity. “We are currently creating the system’s con-

cept, and we want to test it on the roof of our Bangalore office building at the beginning of 2012,” says

project manager Peeush Kumar Bishnoi.

The system is based on the proven principle of the absorption refrigerator, which generally utilizes a salt

solution, with water serving as a coolant. Solar heat warms up the water-salt solution and separates the

water by means of evaporation. The water is then condensed and pumped into a vaporizer, which is the

part of the system that generates cold. The interior of the vaporizer is a vacuum, which means that even

low outside temperatures are enough to evaporate water. Heat is drawn in from the surroundings and

the room cools off. The vaporized water (steam) is then once again bonded to the salt solution. Because

the system operates in a cycle, the surroundings are permanently cooled. Electricity from the photo-

voltaic unit is required to pump the water and the salt solution through the system.

Although other developers have tried to combine refrigeration with photovoltaics, such a setup always

required expensive photovoltaic systems that were too big for the roofs of most offices. Kumar Bishnoi

and his colleagues are therefore combining both features into a single compact system that more effec-

tively exploits solar energy. The challenge lies in obtaining enough heat for the cooling process without

restricting electricity production in the photovoltaic cells. One idea here is to use a special fluid that ex-

tracts enough heat from sunlight before it reaches the photovoltaic unit. “There is very strong demand

for autonomous systems in India,” says Bishnoi. “Many people, especially in rural areas, aren’t connected

to the power grid.” According to Bishnoi, the amount of electricity supplied by the photovoltaic unit

wouldn’t suffice for conventional vapor-compression refrigeration systems, but would be enough for the

small pumps used in absorption refrigerators — and that means this technology clearly has great poten-

tial. Experts estimate that India will need around 31,000 megawatts of power to cool its business offices

in 2015. This figure corresponds to the output of roughly 30 large coal-fired power plants. If the technol-

ogy from Bangalore were to be employed on a large scale, the resulting energy savings would be huge.

obtained through solar power. Over the lastfew years, wind parks in the North Sea have re-peatedly been shut down due to strong windsthat threatened to overload the local grid. Inother cases, surplus electricity has been sent toneighboring countries, despite the fact that itwas not really needed. This can sometimes re-duce prices to such an extent that suppliers be-gin losing money, especially since they stillhave to pay transmission fees. Conversely,whenever winds are weak, so-called peakingplants must be switched on, which makes elec-tricity more expensive.

The increasing use of energy from renew-able sources will put even more pressure onpower grids in the future. According to theGerman Energy Agency, some 3,600 kilome-ters of new power lines will have to be built by2020 in Germany alone to transport electricityto consumers. But even that won’t be enough,as grids will have to become more intelligentso as to create greater transparency and en-sure more flexible pricing models and betterelectricity distribution (see Pictures of the Fu-ture, Fall 2009, p.12).

Also being discussed are electricity storageunits that store surplus electricity when windsblow and the sun shines, and then return it tothe grid when winds are calm and the sky isgray. In addition, electric vehicles might beused in the future as a giant energy pool con-sisting of innumerable batteries. Indeed, thebatteries in two million electric vehicles would

Siemens researchers are developing building

management systems that regulate electricity

consumption, enabling energy to be conserved

without sacrificing comfort.

How Photovoltaic-Based Cooling Systems Work

Sunlight

Optics

Solar cells

Pump

Electricity

Heat drives coolant out of salt solution

Salt solution absorbscoolant vapor

Cooling through low-pressure coolant vaporization

Pictures of the Future | Spring 2011 21

The New Age of Electricity | Renewable Energy in the Grid

More and more electricity produced by solar and wind plants will be fed into the power grid. The grid will therefore have tohandle large amounts of such electricity, which can fluctuatesharply in line with the weather. Researchers from Siemens and Munich’s Technical University are developing solutions thatcan prepare the grid for this flood of green power.

Preparing for a Flood ofGreen Power

between €140,000 and €200,000. That’s be-cause today’s transformers are designed solelyfor a specific voltage range and they overloadif this range is exceeded. Electricity distributioncables could also be damaged by too muchvoltage, leading to a potential proliferation ofshort circuit events.

Mastering Reactive Current. In view of thischallenging scenario, a pilot project nearFürth, Germany indicates that there are lessexpensive alternatives (see also p. 22). Re-searchers there are integrating inverters intothe grid. Normally, inverters transform directcurrent from photovoltaic units into alternat-ing current and adjust it to the frequency ofthe power network. However, a new develop-ment from Siemens enables inverters to alsodraw so-called reactive current from the gridand thus assume a control function. In otherwords, more electricity could be fed into thegrid without having to implement costly ex-pansion projects. Reactive current is generatedby devices like motors that continually build upand break down magnetic fields. In this way,they draw current at regular intervals and thenimmediately feed it back into the grid.

Another challenge associated with renew-able energy sources is their fluctuating output.Wind and solar power facilities do not continu-ously generate the same amount of electricitybecause winds speeds change, clouds coverthe sun, and it gets dark at night. Scientistsfrom Siemens and TUM are therefore lookinginto electricity storage units that take in sur-plus power and then return it to the grid whenit is needed. A variety of concepts for such stor-age units already exist (see p. 26 and Picturesof the Future, Fall 2009, p. 31). “The mainthing that concerns us now is the question ofhow big such storage units should be to ensurethat the pressures being placed on the grid arereduced in the most effective and least expen-sive manner possible,” says Witzmann. To dothis, scientists are simulating the year 2005 ina kind of slow-motion sequence that usesweather data to depict the interactions be-tween environmental conditions, photovoltaicfacilities, and consumers. The results, whichare expected by late 2011, will enable them tocompare electricity production with demand.

Data Transfer in Milliseconds. In anotherproject, Dr. Dragan Obradovic from Siemens CTand Professor Sandra Hirche from TUM are try-ing to determine the fastest possible way tooffset fluctuations in electricity infeeds. “We’redeveloping control strategies that enable all ofthe plants in a grid to communicate with oneanother,” Obradovic explains. At the moment,only large power plants exchange information,but problems can often be foreseen manyhours in advance — for example, when a pow-er plant component needs to be replaced. Astatus report every ten minutes is sufficient foraddressing smaller fluctuations. However, be-cause photovoltaic electrical output dependson wind and weather, an outage can occurmuch more spontaneously than is the casewith other sources. And while it may not be abig deal if only one unit goes down, failure ona regional scale can result in a blackout. In thiscase, all of the surrounding plants and storageunits have to kick in. “We believe that in the fu-ture, the type of information required will haveto be exchanged in just milliseconds,” saysObradovic.

Obradovic and other researchers are incor-porating the results of the project into a labo-ratory network that is now being set up by CTresearchers at a Siemens center in Erlangen.This network will not only test solutions for in-dividual problems such as local voltage surges;it will also feature a small-scale grid of the fu-ture complete with photovoltaic plants, powerconsumers, and electricity storage units. Atthat point, in addition to simulating interac-tions, it will be possible to test everything un-der real conditions. Helen Sedlmeier

The share of solar power in the global ener-gy mix is still relatively low, but experts agreethat it could increase by a factor of 50 over thenext 20 years. If that happens, it would puttremendous pressure on grid stability and volt-age. “Such changes might not only damageimportant and expensive components liketransformers but also negatively affect thefunctionality and lifespan of other electricalequipment and appliances,” says Dr. MichaelMetzger from Siemens Corporate Technology(CT). Metzger and Professor Rolf Witzmannfrom the Department of Electrical Energy Sup-ply Networks at TUM are therefore working tofind a solution to these problems.

Their first step was to analyze the situation.They calculated how much photovoltaic elec-tricity could be generated in Germany if allsuitable roofs and open areas were fitted withphotovoltaic units. The result they came upwith was 161 to 188 gigawatts. Pilot photo-voltaic facilities currently supply only aroundten percent of that amount — or 18 gigawattsmaximum. A second calculation showed howcosts could skyrocket if such a step were taken.Upgrading the grid in just a single village to ac-commodate the potential increase would cost

In a pilot project near Fürth, Germany, Siemens

researchers are using inverters that intervene in

the power network, thereby enabling more

renewable energy to be fed into the grid.

Dark blue is the new color of an increasingnumber of roofs. That’s because ever

since Germany’s Renewable Energy SourcesAct was passed in 2000 — and was then usedas a model for similar subsidy legislation inaround 50 other countries — more and moreroofs have been transformed by photovoltaicunits into small blue power plants.

Scientists from Siemens and the TechnicalUniversity of Munich (TUM) are addressing thechallenges associated with this development,including the danger of local grid overloads.They are also searching for new approachesthat can make power grids smarter and able toaccommodate large amounts of photovoltaicelectricity.

That’s easier said than done, as most gridstoday are designed to transport electricity gen-erated at large coal or gas-fired power plants.Such facilities supply electricity to the high-voltage network. The power then flows intothe medium and finally into the low-voltagegrid, the one that serves consumers. This hier-archical principle has functioned well up untilnow — but it’s not adequate for a future char-acterized by numerous small-scale electricityproducers.

20 Pictures of the Future | Spring 2011

nario, building management systems wouldshut down or ramp down certain types ofequipment when demand for electricity is highand power is therefore more expensive. Thiscould be done in the morning or in theevening when things like hair dryers, toasters,and hot water boilers are being used. Up-to-the-minute price alerts would enable buildingmanagement systems to turn on pumps andfans primarily when solar and wind power isflooding the grid and prices are falling.

Several hundred parameters and measure-ment values are fed into modern buildingmanagement systems today, including officetemperatures and fan output figures. All of thisdata will have to be linked together by loadshifting software. TUM re-searchers are now usingbuilding simulations to re-fine the corresponding cal-culation specifications.“Ideally, we will be able tointegrate these algorithmsinto existing control tech-nologies like our Desigo system,” says SiemensBuilding Technologies’ Kiauk. Just how the re-quired knowledge will be incorporated intoSiemens products has yet to be determined.“The first step is basic research,” says ChristophHielscher, head of Business Development forSmart Grid Applications at Siemens Energy.“Our goal is to make buildings intelligent andenable them to note how quickly they cooldown, how much heat they require, and whenthey can shut down certain devices in order toconserve electricity. Each building has its ownspecific characteristics.”

Load Shedding Solutions. In the U.S., elec-tricity load management has been common-place for years. Here, the focus is not so muchon fluctuating electricity production as on so-called load shedding. The U.S. faces a situationin which power plants and infrastructures thatin some cases are outdated are being pushedto the limits of their capacity. This is a problemparticularly on hot days when millions ofAmericans turn on air conditioners. In order toprevent supply bottlenecks, power companiesshut down specific consumers — i.e. they shedloads. For example, private customers whoagree to turn off their air conditioners on sev-eral hot days throughout the year are reward-ed with lower electricity rates. The same isdone for industrial companies and refrigeratedwarehouses. And as more precise weatherforecasts have made short-term alerts possi-ble, power companies have been able to in-form such consumers of the outages by e-mailor phone the day before. Some 80 percent ofall load-shedding customers are directly in-formed in this manner. This may sound compli-

cated, but a nationwide call center service is alot cheaper than building new power plants orgrid components.

As part of its strategy to automate loadmanagement operations, Siemens has ac-quired SureGrid, a company that develops loadmanagement software for central computersand communication systems. SureGrid’s cen-tral computer in Austin, Texas, can, for exam-ple, accept an order from a power company fora required amount of electricity and then auto-matically distribute this total among all theparticipating buildings in a region. This solvesthe problem of insufficient reliability. That’s be-cause when a power company requests loadshedding via e-mail, there’s no guarantee that

the customer will remember to turn off his orher air conditioner the next day. The energysupplier therefore needs to play it safe by plan-ning in more load shedding than is actuallyneeded. Automation, on the other hand, willmake load management calculations more reli-able and secure in the future.

Automation also offers another advantage.At the moment, energy suppliers must useweather forecasts to estimate roughly one dayin advance when and for how long they needto shed electricity loads. In this case as well,they plan in a buffer and ask customers to shutdown their appliances for several hours — inmost cases longer than is actually necessary.Automation would allow power companies toreact right before a bottleneck occurs, whichwould reduce the duration of a load sheddingevent.

The U.S. energy market differs greatly fromthe European market, of course. Everything inthe U.S. revolves around supply shortages,whereas Europe focuses on fluctuating electri-cal output from wind and solar facilities. Nevertheless, the U.S. is also taking an initialimportant step toward greater building intelli-gence and smart power consumption throughits automated load management systems. “Thenext step would be to implement the type ofbuilding management technology the TUMproject seeks to develop — technology that’salso very flexible and able to react to changingelectricity prices,” says Hielscher. The benefitsare obvious. If people turn off their air condi-tioners today, they start sweating — but an in-telligent load management system would in-stead simply reduce the speed of the elevatorsin their building. Tim Schröder

In the future, electricity prices maychange every 15 minutes — thushelping intelligent buildings to save.

ously tested in the simulation. “The adjustablecomponents, such as the battery and the co-generation plant respond to price signals at alocal electric power exchange,” explains Bam-berger. Prices rise if less solar energy is avail-able, causing the village’s more costly electrici-ty generation or storage systems, such as itsbattery and cogeneration plant, to begin sup-plying energy. At the same time, electricity usein the village decreases because the electricityprice influences consumption by heat pumpsand cooling units, for example (see p. 17).

“If these electronic control systems proveeffective in the simulation, we can use thefindings to test the systems in laboratory ex-periments and demonstrate their operation,”says Schäfer. The results to date have been sogood that the Siemens researchers are plan-ning to start a pilot test in a grid operated bysouthern German utility Allgäuer Überland -werk (AÜW). When that happens, tomorrow’ssmart grid will have taken another big steptoward becoming a reality. Urs Fitze

Pictures of the Future | Spring 2011 2322 Pictures of the Future | Spring 2011

The New Age of Electricity | Smart Grids

Smart grids and meters will help to manage tomorrow’s power supply systems. This will require real-time control of variables, including consumer demand. Researchers at Siemens’ smart grid testing facility in Erlangen, Germany are developing solutions, including algorithms based on simulations.

Smart Meters. What will things be like ten or15 years from now? According to Knaak, atfirst glance, the situation won’t change muchfor private or commercial electricity customers.That’s because electricity will continue to comefrom the power socket and, of course, still beavailable whenever it’s needed. But the me-chanical meters that are still widely used andoften only read once or twice a year will be rel-egated to science museums.

The grid of the future will be an informationnetwork, enabling households to run theirwashing machines at times when electricityprices are low. Appliances will be controlledfully automatically, and consumers will be ableto switch devices on or off online or commis-sion a grid operator’s energy optimization pro-gram to do so. “Consistent implementation ofsuch an approach would probably lead to sub-stantial cuts in electricity consumption,” pre-dicts Michael Moser, a department head at theEnergy Research Section of the Swiss Federal

more electricity storage systems for collectingenergy from fluctuating renewable sources.

From today’s perspective, smart grids stillsound a bit futuristic. But scientists — includ-ing those at the smart grid testing facility atSiemens Corporate Technology (CT) in Erlan-gen — are already working on a number of ad-vanced systems. Experts atthe facility are developingspecial control algorithmsand hardware componentsfor smart grids, which in-volves combining experi-ments with sophisticatedsimulations. “We are simu-lating the electricity transmission network ofan actual German village, for example, where alarge share of the energy is generated by pho-tovoltaic systems,” says Dr. Jochen Schäfer,who directs the development, testing, anddemonstration of hardware components inCT’s Smart Grid lighthouse project.

Joachim Bamberger, who manages Siemens’Smart Grid research project.

In practice, a demonstration scenario mightinvolve a cloud bank passing over the village.This causes the electricity generated by theimaginary photovoltaic systems (i.e. the elec-tricity fed into the grid by inverters) to drop

drastically. Because the village has to fully cov-er its electricity needs from local production,researchers use a battery to temporarily offsetthe decrease until a cogeneration plant can bestarted up in their Erlangen lab.

Electricity production is compared to actualneed by a trading mechanism that was previ-

At the Smart Grid Laboratory, researchers simulate

grid conditions — for example, when solar panels are

under clouds (left). Smart meters are already in use in

Arbon, Switzerland (right). Europe established its first power plantsaround 120 years ago and then gradually

expanded its systems for supplying electricitythrough power sockets. “We’ve been prettymuch muddling along blindly ever since,” saysJürgen Knaak, Managing Director of Arbon Energie AG, the local power utility company inArbon, a small Swiss town with 13,000 inhabi-tants. “Even today, neither consumers nor sup-pliers know exactly when electricity is flowingthrough power lines, or how much of it is flow-ing.” But that’s about to change in Arbon,thanks to smart meters. Since 2007, Siemenshas been replacing the town’s approximately8,700 household meters with new high-techdevices. “For the electricity industry, this is averitable revolution, comparable to the intro-duction of cell phones or the Internet,” ex-plains Knaak.

In Arbon, “blind muddling” meant therewas practically no transparency about what ac-tually happens in the town’s grid, with infor-mation in this area limited to the periodic

Office of Energy. As a result, Switzerland couldreduce its energy consumption by approxi-mately five to ten percent, thus giving con-sumers and the environment a break.

Electricity Highways. Smart meters are abyproduct of the trend toward digital powersupply systems. Grid design will pose a fargreater technological and economic challenge,because most electricity will no longer be gen-erated by a few large plants, as is the case to-day, but by many small and medium-size pro-ducers, which will sometimes only produceenergy for their own needs, and at other timesfeed power into the grid.

The grids that until now were practicallyonly one-way streets will be turned into multi-lane energy highways (see Pictures of the Fu-ture, Fall 2009, p. 12). Wind turbines, for ex-ample, will operate at full load when there isstrong wind, while natural gas and biomasspower plants will be switched on when de-mand increases. There will also be more and

In the simulation, one of the streets in thevillage was the object of particular interest.“The place has many big producers of photo-voltaic energy but only a few small electricityconsumers, which means intense solar radia-tion can create a critical situation for the grid’sstability,” explains Schäfer. In response to thisproblem, experts conducted a laboratory testin which they recreated a 1:7 scale copy of theparts of the grid in question, including energyproducers and consumers, as well as line re-sistances.

Solar cells are simulated by inverters thatget their energy from a separate grid. Thismakes it possible to set the testing conditions,such as the intensity of incident solar radia-tion. “We can now test and investigate controlalgorithms and critical situations not only insimulations, but also in real life,” reports

No Longer a One-Way Street

measurement of electricity consumption byhouseholds, businesses, and manufacturingfacilities. Much more information will be re-quired in the future, however. “The generationand supply of electricity is becoming increas-ingly complex, and we have to be able to ad-dress this challenge,” says Knaak. The “Amis”meters from Siemens that are being installedin Arbon are state-of-the-art devices that notonly measure electricity consumption, but canalso collect data from gas, water, and districtheating meters through corresponding inter-faces. This data is then forwarded to the powerutility company without delay, ensuring thatthe supplier is always fully informed of eachconsumers’ electricity needs — from individualrefrigerators in private homes all the way up tomajor industrial consumers. Around 3,300smart meters have been installed in Arbon todate, with this process scheduled to be com-pleted by the end of 2013.

As that date approaches, a new era willcommence for Knaak, bringing with it a new

business model that is meant to ensure thesuccess of his company. That’s because infor-mation will be as valuable as energy in tomor-row’s electricity market, where detailed dataon electricity consumption will make it possi-ble for utility companies to offer customizedrate models and exploit a real competitive ad-vantage.

And what about consumers? Not only willthey be better informed about where electrici-ty is being used in their businesses and homes;they’ll also be able to manage consumption ina more targeted manner. For example, Knaakcan tell the municipal utility company of theSwiss city of St. Gallen almost to the exact sec-ond when it would be least costly for it topump drinking water out of Lake Constance,and thus offer the firm a better rate model.Similarly, thanks to information furnished byreal-time metering, Arbon Energie AG shouldbe able to improve its bottom line by purchas-ing electricity when the price is particularly lowdue to generation overcapacities.

The power grid of the future will be a comprehensive and very transparent information network.

Pictures of the Future | Spring 2011 2524 Pictures of the Future | Spring 2011

The New Age of Electricity| Light Guides

Capturing sunlight and using it where it’s needed is an age-old dream. Together with a university in Nuremberg, Osram isdeveloping a lighting system that combines fiber optics withLED technology. The trick is to balance these two sources todynamically achieve the color and intensity of sunlight.

The results of the joint research project be-tween Ohm University and Osram havespawned a combination of energy efficiencyand heightened appreciation for the quality oflife associated with natural light. As innovationmanager, Feil interacts with a network ofyoung development engineers. “We have a re-search environment that’s driven by competi-tion between ideas,” he says. “You’ve got to bein touch with people. Anyone who contributesgood ideas deserves support,” he says.

Osram supports the project’s young re-searchers by providing know-how as well asthe latest LED and sensor system technology.“Open innovation” is what Feil calls it. “It’s asthough we were pushing one another for-ward,” he explains. He is always able to helpout when support is needed concerning tech-nical lighting solutions, business plans, or mar-ket analyses. What he expects for Osram in re-

Bavarian Optics. The Sollektor is expected tomake its first market appearance in the courseof 2011. By then this combination of fiber op-tics and advanced LED technology will have tobe working flawlessly. Fundamental to the suc-cess of this sensitive control system are sophis-ticated algorithms that perfectly balance thetwo components of the system.

Automatic Balancing Act. A project atSiemens Building Technology in Zug, Switzer-land, illustrates the system’s functional specifi-cations. At first sight the project room appearsto be an ordinary office with a black uphol-stered chair and a desk of light-brown woodwith a laptop on it. But this is just an experi-mental setup. Bright sunlight enters the win-dow. More light comes through a ceiling-mounted fiber-optic source resembling aSollektor — a product from Sweden that was

matically adjusted to achieve an optimal bal-ance,” says Philipp Kräuchi, who is managingthe project. “All functions must be responsiveto individual preferences regarding brightnessand contrasts. If energy consumption is to bereduced at the same time, intelligent automa-tion is indispensable.”

The next step in the research between Os-ram and Ohm University will be further devel-opment of intelligent sensor and automationtechnology with a view to optimizing the inte-gration of the Sollektor’s fiber optic compo-nents and LEDs. While the research partnersbusy themselves with this challenge, theyknow that the sophisticated building systemsthey have in mind are out of reach for develop-ing economies. Nevertheless, the Sollektor hasalready created excitement in the southern In-dian city of Chennai. Two years ago, Poiselbrought a prototype to the Indian Institute of

While a photovoltaic module first converts

sunlight into electric energy, so-called “Sollektors”

transport daylight directly (graphic). Light is

captured by 900 lenses (top right).As legend would have it, the citizens of atown called Schilda — the Schildbürger —

always had plenty of bright ideas. But they al-ways blundered when they tried to put theirideas into practice. When they were building anew city hall, for instance, they forgot an im-portant detail: the windows. So to brighten upthe interior, they collected daylight in cookingpots and carried it into the building. Unfortu-nately, it didn’t get any brighter.

The basic idea behind the Schildbürgers’ bigblunder has now been seized upon by Profes-sor Hans Poisel, a lighting expert at Georg Si-mon Ohm University of Applied Sciences inNuremberg. Over the past four years, alongwith his students, he has developed a device

turn is new momentum that may somedaygive rise to a marketable product.

Initial interest in the Sollektor is expected tobe limited to niche applications in Europe,Poisel believes. For example, it could ensurelifelike color fidelity in art galleries, for fittingrooms in upscale clothing stores, or for thevegetable sections in supermarkets. A key fac-tor will be how fast an investment can be ex-pected to be recovered through energy sav-ings. Two of Poisel’s former students havealready established their own company named

already on the market when the Sollektor proj-ect was launched in 2008. Sensors mountedbetween the rectangular light panels in theceiling continuously collect a large volume ofdata, which is used to intelligently control thebuilding’s automation system. If there is toomuch incident light, for instance, the shadescome down just enough to dim the lighting.

The experience that is being gained fromthis project flows into an EU-supported projectcalled “Clear Up.” The project’s goal is to devel-op energy-efficient technologies for residentialand commercial buildings. “Ambient condi-tions should not in any way impede anyone inthe room. So the quantities of artificial lightand daylight that illuminate the room are auto-

Let the Sun Shine In!

soon to be installed on rooftops: the Sollektor.A square plate with sides about the length ofone’s forearm supports 900 shiny lenses thatcollect sunlight and feed it into polymer fiberoptic cables like the ones used for data trans-fers. The light travels through these plasticconductors to ceiling-mounted light fixtureswhere it is emitted. What’s more, only wave-lengths that are visible to the eye are conduct-ed. Harmful ultraviolet and infrared compo-nents of the spectrum are blocked.

“When we talk about solar energy, we usu-ally think about photovoltaic or solar thermalsystems,” says Poisel. “In those methods, lightis not even fed into the system but is convertedinto other forms of energy. What we are striv-

ing to do, on the other hand, is to use this orig-inal form of energy — sunlight — without con-verting it and with low transfer losses.” In theprocess of generating electric power with pho-tovoltaics and then converting it into artificiallight, approximately 99 percent of the solar en-ergy is lost. The Sollektor, on the other hand,achieves an efficiency of over 50 percent. “Webring daylight to interiors where nature is nor-mally excluded — into the dark cave of the of-fice where people spend most of their time,”Poisel says.

It’s easy to laugh at the Schildbürgers. Nomodern architect would forget to include win-dows when planning a building. But to call ourway of lighting a building efficient would be afallacy. No sooner does the summer sun glareinto the windows than the blinds go down andthe lights are turned on. This is especially truefor regions in the southern hemisphere. Wespend 90 percent of our time in enclosedrooms, working and living under artificial light.Consequently, almost one fifth of worldwidepower consumption is spent on illuminatinginteriors — even during the day.

Daylight Plus Color LEDs. Even the savingspotential of a single Sollektor gives you an ideaof what could be achieved with widespreadutilization of daylight. When the sun is shining,the transferred light is sufficient to replacetwelve ordinary 60-watt incandescent bulbs.During the 1,700 hours the sun shines annual-ly in Germany, a single Sollektor could save upto 1,200 kilowatt hours of electrical energy.

But even the fiber optic approach has itslimits. Once the sun has set, an electric alterna-tive is indispensable. Development engineersin Nuremberg are therefore working with Os-ram to combine the best of both worlds. Theirgoal is a solution in which daylight is variablyadmixed with artificial light depending onavailable light intensity — as controlled by in-telligent sensor technology. The system can beintegrated into a single ceiling light.

Osram uses LED technology for this pur-pose. Luminous semiconductors not only re-place natural daylight, they also provide illumi-nation with a changing color temperature —which gives a boost to both comfort andhealth. In particular, the blue components ofnatural daylight affect our inner clock, as wellas our sleeping and waking rhythms (see Pic-tures of the Future, Fall 2010, p. 90). “To repro-duce this effect in the interior of a building, thecolor spectrum of the light, as well as its inten-sity, must be constantly adapted dynamically,”explains Henry Feil, Innovation Manager at Os-ram in Munich. In the morning and eveninghours, the blue component of the artificiallighting source must be reduced and red is ad-mixed.

Technology — Nuremberg’s partner university.Negotiations have taken place since then withthe Indian Railway Company, which is interest-ed in finding an efficient lighting solution forits production facilities.

While Poisel was sitting in a conferenceroom during his most recent visit, the powersuddenly failed — something that happens of-ten in India’s big cities. The overhead projec-tion image vanished from the wall and the airconditioning stopped humming. But in thebuilding next door it didn’t get dark, eventhough the blinds were closed. The Sollektoron the roof wasn’t affected by the power fail-ure. The Schildbürgers would have turned palewith envy. Stefan Schweiger

How Sollektor Compares with Photovoltaic Systems

1% (Artificial light)

50–70% (Sunlight)

=

˜

Photovoltaic

Power generation byphotovoltaics

100% Sunlight

Transmission andtransformation

Conventional lighting systems

Light

Flexible light guidance(8 fiber-optic cables)

Light concentration

Sollektor

“The new unit has been operating withoutinterruption for several months; its predeces-sor unit has been running since 2006,” saysWaidhas. “Right now, we’re optimizing opera-tional parameters such as current density, andupgrading membranes and other compo-nents.” That’s because unlike a school lab ex-periment involving nothing more than twowires in a glass of water, an industrial elec-trolyzer is an extremely complex device whosecomponents must have very special proper-ties. The front and back consist of two stainlesssteel plates that ensure no gas escapes andthat transport electricity into the interior.Sandwiched between these plates are the cellsin which water is broken down.

A Teflon-like membrane in the middle ofeach cell separates the sections in which hy-drogen and oxygen form. On the front andback of the membrane are precious-metalelectrodes that are connected to the positiveand negative poles of the voltage source. “This

Pictures of the Future | Spring 2011 2726 Pictures of the Future | Spring 2011

The New Age of Electricity| Electrolysis

Hydrogen is an optimal energy carrier and a coveted raw material. It can be obtained from waterthrough electrolysis by using, for example, surplus electricity from renewable sources. Siemens engineers are working on new electrolyzers that could be the basis of future energy storage units.

solution. “You could set up an electrolyzer at alocation where electricity from an offshorewind park reaches land, for example,” he says.“If the wind park were to produce too muchelectricity, you could use it to produce hydro-gen, which could then be stored in a cavern.” Ifdemand for power rises, the energy-rich gascould then drive a turbine to supply CO2-neu-tral electricity to the grid. If you combine theefficiency of the electrolysis (approx. 75 per-cent) with that of a gas turbine (around 60 per-cent in combined cycle operation with a steamturbine), the resulting “energy-recirculation”process would still exploit up to 45 percent ofthe original energy. “That’s not as good as apumped-storage plant, but it’s better thanshutting down windmills when demand isn’tthere,” says Waidhas.

But there’s a hitch. Flames resulting fromthe combustion of hydrogen gas would have atemperature of around 3,000 degrees Celsius.And that would cause today’s turbine blades tomelt. “In view of this, what’s technically feasi-

this methanization process can be reproducedon an industrial scale, producers could beginpumping the resulting synthetic natural gasinto storage facilities in Germany.

The country’s pipelines and caverns can ac-commodate enough gas to store a total energycontent of more than 200 terawatt-hours(TWh). This is substantiallymore than the current ca-pacity of all pumped-stor-age facilities in Germany(0.04 TWh). It also repre-sents roughly one-third ofthe country’s annual grosselectricity consumption.Alongside recirculation to turbines, methaniza-tion would also make it possible to use thenew fuel in natural gas vehicles and heatingsystems.

Hydrogen is a very attractive alternative be-cause it can also serve as a feed stock for manychemical industry processes — from semicon-ductor production to margarine hardening.

pable of working on an industrial scale. Thecurrent state of technology in this area is ondisplay at the Siemens Corporate Technologylab in Erlangen. Here, the latest generation ofSiemens electrolyzers operate completelysilently in a metal housing. The two cube-shaped devices are made of stainless steel and

held together by sturdy bolts. Black high-pres-sure pipes protrude from the silver blocks onthe right and left. Their job is to transport thehydrogen and oxygen gas produced by theunits to tanks at pressures up to 50 bars. Inter-nal temperature measurements are transmit-ted to the neighboring control units via verticalcables connected to the devices.

Siemens researchers have developed a new

electrolyzer based on special membranes that

increase the hydrogen yield. The unit is to operate

with surplus electricity from wind-power plants.Who says that far-reaching technologiescan’t be based on simple processes? Take

two electrodes, for instance, connect them tothe positive and negative poles of a voltagesource and put them in water, and presto, bub-bles appear when electricity flows through theliquid. The bubbles on the positive pole arefilled with oxygen, while those on the negativepole contain hydrogen. This process of split-ting water into its constituent elements iscalled electrolysis.

Although this may not seem earth shakingat first glance, electrolysis nevertheless has thepotential to become a key part of the energysupply networks of the future. “The larger theshare of electricity production accounted forby renewable sources such as the wind andsun, the greater will be the fluctuations in theamount of energy available,” says Dr. ManfredWaidhas from the new Hydrogen ElectrolyzerDivision at Siemens’ Industry Sector. “The prob-lem is that supply and demand must always be

ble at the moment is a hydrogen componentof 40 to 50 percent, which could be mixedwith conventional natural gas,” says Waidhas.“You could then circulate part of the steamback into the combustion chamber in order tokeep the temperature below the critical level.”Siemens researchers in Moscow are working tomake the dream of an efficient hydrogen tur-bine a reality (see Pictures of the Future, Fall2009, p.7).

Today’s turbines can be operated smoothlyusing methane, which can be produced fromhydrogen and carbon dioxide with the help ofa catalyst. Researchers working at the Centerfor Solar Energy and Hydrogen ResearchBaden-Württemberg in Stuttgart, Germany,and the Fraunhofer Institute for Wind Energyand Energy System Technology in Kassel, Ger-many, have teamed up with Austrian energycompany Solar Fuel Technology to build a pilotfacility in which hydrogen is “methanized” withan efficiency of around 80 percent. As soon as

“Today, more than 95 percent of the annualglobal hydrogen requirement is obtained fromnatural gas,” says Waidhas, who is a chemist.“With steam reforming, hydrocarbons react athigh temperatures and pressure with water,producing carbon monoxide and hydrogen inthe process.”

Electrolysis enables another alternativehere — one in which hydrogen produced fromrenewable sources could be sent via pipelinesto chemical industry centers for use as a feed-stock. Valuable natural gas would thus be con-served, and hydrogen produced from excessrenewable energy would not produce any CO2

emissions.

Electrolysis in the Lab. Waidhas and his col-leagues will first have to make electrolyzers ca-

precisely balanced in the electricity grid if over-load is to be avoided. That’s why we need elec-trical energy storage units that absorb energysurpluses and then return the energy to thegrid when it is needed.”

This is where electrolysis comes in. Theprocess uses surplus electricity from renewablesources to produce hydrogen that can then bestored as an energy carrier in subterraneancaverns in salt domes, for example — the kindsof locations that energy companies typicallyuse for stockpiling huge amounts of naturalgas.

But doesn’t proven storage technology al-ready exist in the form of pumped-storage hy-droelectric power plants? Such plants use sur-plus electricity to pump water into a basin at ahigher level. Then, when extra power is need-ed, the water is allowed to flow downwards todrive turbines that generate electricity.“Pumped-storage plants are in fact the ideal so-lution,” says Waidhas. “They have efficiencies

as high as 80 percent and their technology hasbeen used for decades.” Unfortunately, howev-er, the best locations for such installationshave already been tapped. What’s more, plansto build new facilities invariably lead to mas-sive protests.

Alternatives are therefore needed. One pos-sibility is to use batteries from electric vehicles(see Pictures of the Future, Fall 2010, p.34).However, the cost of batteries, and theamount of space they need, generally prohibitthe construction of centralized storage facili-ties. The largest such facility is in Japan. De-spite being as big as a soccer field, it can sup-ply only 30 megawatts of electricity for sevenhours. In the future, it will be necessary to de-liver several hundred megawatts — and whenthe wind drops, this output will have to beavailable for several days.

Storing Energy in Hydrogen. Waidhas be-lieves hydrogen offers the best energy storage

Electrolysis converts surplus electricity from wind-power facilitiesinto hydrogen that can be stored.

Second Wind for Hydrogen

Pictures of the Future | Spring 2011 2928 Pictures of the Future | Spring 2011

is where the water is split,” Waidhas explains.“The electrodes need to have as large a surfacearea as possible, as this guarantees a highyield.” It’s also important that large amounts ofboth electricity and water reach the electrodes.This is ensured by current collectors made ofporous sintered metal. The collectors not onlysurround the electrodes but also collect thegas and transport it upwards.

The new membrane electrolyzers fromSiemens offer several advantages over their es-tablished counterparts that use potash lye toseparate the electrodes. “Existing state-of-the-art electrodes take several minutes to react tochanges in the amount of available electricity,”says Waidhas. “Our membrane version, on theother hand, reacts in just milliseconds.” Thenew electrolyzers can be temporarily over-loaded with a maximum of three times the lev-el of their rated output. They can also operateat hydrogen pressures of 50 to 100 bars —which lowers costs and improves yield.

Coveted Gas. Waidhas and his colleaguesplan to build a demonstration unit by 2012that will fit into a container and be able to op-erate on site at a potential customer location.“All we’ll need then is a water and electricityconnection,” he explains. “The new electrolyz-er will be able to utilize a maximum of 300kilowatts of power — as opposed to our cur-rent test unit, which runs at 30 kilowatts maxi-mum.”

The electrolyzer, which produces aroundtwo kilograms of hydrogen per 100 kilowattsand hour, is already attracting interest.Siemens is working with Bayer, RWE, and tenother partners in a project called “CO2RRECT,”which is exploring methods for using carbondioxide to produce everything from chemicalfeedstocks to plastics. Here, hydrogen ob-tained from renewable sources is used as a rawmaterial.

Waidhas expects the first commercial elec-trolyzer to be ready by 2014. “That unit will beable to operate in the single-digit megawattrange and could be used, for example, by a re-gional power supplier to collect surplus elec-tricity from one or two windmills or photo-voltaic facilities,” he says.

Waidhas also believes the market for thetechnology will be enormous in the future.“Converting only ten percent of globally-gener-ated wind energy into hydrogen using electrol-ysis would result in the storage of several ter-awatt-hours of energy each year — that’s ahuge amount,” he points out. In this scenario,large electrolyzers with a capacity of 100megawatts would be built in close proximity towind parks whose excess electricity would beused to produce a universal energy carrier inthe form of hydrogen. Christian Buck

The New Age of Electricity | Tidal Power Plants

Located off the coast of Northern Ireland, the world’s first commercial tidal current power plant is producing electricity for1,500 households using energy generated by high and low tides.

The wind blows softly over the rich greenhills that dot the countryside around the

small coastal town of Strangford in CountyDown, Northern Ireland. Just a few steps awayis the natural port of Strangford Lough — adeep-blue harbor that today fully lives up to itsCeltic name Cuan, which means “the calmbay.” Nevertheless, large dark waves some-times rip through the harbor. It’s therefore nocoincidence that Strangford was called “thepowerful fjord” by the Vikings who once set-tled there. The bay is 30 kilometers long and itstotal area of 150 square kilometers makes itthe largest in the Irish Sea. It not only containspicturesque fishing boots but also a black andred steel tower that protrudes out of the waterjust off the coastline. This tower is part ofSeaGen — the world’s first commercial tidalcurrent power plant. The facility, which beganoperating in 2008, produces 1.2 megawatts(MW) of electricity solely from the power of

the tides. That’s enough to supply a town of1,500 households.

Tidal flows represent a largely untappedsource of clean energy. This underutilization isdue to the fact that the technology has re-mained in the development phase up untilnow, and installing it offshore is very expen-sive. Nevertheless, its potential is huge. Tidalcurrent power plants can be built anywherewhere the ebb and flood of the tides generatestrong currents. The list of places offering idealconditions includes Scotland, France, Canada,and East Asia.

Strangford Lough’s natural harbor is an at-tractive location for various reasons. First andforemost, it is relatively shallow. This has madeit possible to anchor the power plant at adepth of around 30 meters, explains Kai OliverKölmel, who is responsible for Ocean Power atthe Siemens Renewables Division. “Shallowwater makes it easier to anchor a facility into

the seabed,” he says. “In addition, the ebb andflow of the tides is stronger in shallow waters.For instance, the flow rate in the so-calledStrangford Narrow gets as high as four metersof water per second; SeaGen needs a flow of atleast one meter per second to generate elec-tricity.”

Underwater Electricity Factory. The Strang-ford Lough plant is operated by Marine CurrentTurbines, a British company in which Siemensacquired a ten percent interest in 2010. The fa-cility is similar to a wind turbine, the only dif-ference being that it is driven by water insteadof air. Each of its two drive trains weighs 27tons and is equipped with a rotor measuring16 meters in diameter.

The rotor blades can be turned through 180degrees, which means they can produce elec-tricity for up to 20 hours a day regardless ofwhether the tide is coming in or going out. The

tower to which the two propeller turbines areattached via a cross-member has a diameter ofthree meters. Depending on the tide, the tow-er can protrude as much as 20 meters abovethe sea. The rotors can’t be seen above the wa-ter — and it’s even possible to take a small boatdirectly past the turbine because the rotors arelocated at least three meters below the sur-face. “Maintenance is easy,” says Kölmel, “be-cause the facility can be easily accessed andthe cross-members to which the turbines areattached can be raised out of the water using ahydraulic lifting system.”

Although extensive installation costs makean investment in tidal current power plantsaround twice as high as that for offshore windpower facilities, the resulting electricity offersseveral benefits. For example, the energy den-sity of water is 800 times higher than that ofwind, which makes generating electricity withwater much more efficient. A 1.2 MW tidal

plant like the one at Strangford Lough can pro-duce as much electricity in a year as a 2.5 MWoffshore wind turbine. The electricity yieldfrom tidal facilities is also more precisely calcu-lable, which enhances planning security. Afterall, tidal currents are determined by the moonand the Earth’s gravitation, so they’re not de-pendent on the weather and can be predictedyears in advance.

The International Energy Agency estimatesthe global output potential of tidal powerplants to be as high as 800 terawatt-hours peryear — enough to supply 250 million house-holds with electricity. Marine Current Turbinescontinues to invest in tidal technologies.Among other things, the company plans tostart building a tidal turbine park near the Isleof Skye in northeastern Scotland in 2013.When it’s completed, the facility will supply upto 4,000 households with electricity from thesea. Sabine Sauter

Tapping Invisible Rivers

Tidal flows represent a largely untapped source

of clean energy. But with an energy density 800

times that of wind, water offers a highly-efficient

and reliable source of power.

Pictures of the Future | Spring 2011 3130 Pictures of the Future | Spring 2011

The New Age of Electricity | Drinking Water Production

Drinking water is becoming scarce in many coastal regions. Seawater desalination can help, but conventional processes consume huge amounts of energy. Siemens engineers have now developed an electric desalination technique that cuts energy consumption in half.

ensures that both methods are carried out un-der optimal conditions. In addition, Siemens’CEDI technique benefits from the company’sexperience as the market leader in the produc-tion of highly pure water for pharmaceuticalapplications.

The details are as follows: The salt contentof seawater is approximately 3.5 percent —but drinking water can contain a maximum ofonly one seventieth of that amount. To achievethis tremendous reduction in salt content theED and CEDI processes use powerful electricfields. Sodium chloride (salt) in seawater con-sists of charged ions, so the electrodialysisprocess channels water between two electricpoles through an area containing more than700 semipermeable membrane pairs. The lat-ter ensure a high desalination capacity. Themembranes alternate between those that al-low only positive and those that allow onlynegative ions to pass through. The ions followthe pull of the electric field through one mem-brane and are then stopped by the next one.

Water with a low salt content, which isknown as diluate, thus collects in the compart-ment between each membrane pair. Salt col-lects in the compartments on either side, andthe concentrate that forms is expelled from thesystem as wastewater. Newly developed mem-branes now make it possible to use electrodial-ysis for high salt concentrations such as thosefound in seawater. “This technology can becombined with advanced electrodeionizationtechnology to develop a marketable product inthe medium term,” says Knauf.”

After flowing through three electrodialysismodules, the salt content of the diluate falls toless than one percent. At this point, desalina-tion with electrodialysis is no longer efficient,so the next stage is a continuous electrodeion-ization process in which an ion exchange resinlocated between the membranes significantlyincreases process efficiency. The resin doesthis by absorbing ions from the salt and trans-porting them to the membranes. At the sametime, this resin also regenerates itself by ab-sorbing the positive and negative ions that areformed by the partial disassociation of the wa-ter in the strong electric field.

Lower Noise and Vibrations. The key bene-fit of this technique is that it does not requireeither a high level of vaporization energy orhigh pressure for the filtering process. Instead,only the relatively low electrical resistance ofthe membranes has to be overcome. Other ad-vantages over the most common techniquepreviously used — reverse osmosis — includethe fact that the new method is safer to oper-ate thanks to the elimination of high-pressurepumps. The procedure also generates lessnoise and fewer vibrations, is less susceptible

to corrosion because it uses plastic pipes, andrequires only minimal water treatment beforeand afterwards. In addition, the mineral con-tent required for drinking water can be set byvarying the strength of the electric field.

Other Siemens specialists are also involvedin this innovative development. Experts fromSiemens Corporate Tech-nology (CT) in Singapore,for example, are studyingthe properties of the mem-branes in order to optimizethe new materials and pro-duction technologies em-ployed. CT expert Dr. An-dreas Hauser is also contributing hisknowledge of system simulations. Over thenext three years, Hauser will work with RWTHAachen University to create an electrodialysissimulation model in a project funded by theGerman Ministry of Education and Research.

The goal is to depict processes at the molec-ular level using extremely powerful computersso as to gain a more precise understanding ofhow ions are transported through the mem-branes and what form the water flow dynam-ics take in the electric field. “The results willflow into Siemens’ product development activi-

ties,” says Hauser. Researchers will then beable to further optimize the desalinationprocess. “I’m hoping we’ll end up with softwarethat can calculate an optimal facility design foreach individual customer,” says Knauf.

Plans call for demonstration units to be setup at customer locations in Singapore, the

U.S., and the Caribbean by mid-2012. Theseunits will show that the new and economicaldesalination technique will work not only inSingapore but also at any other location, de-spite sharp regional differences in seawatersalt content. “We expect global water con-sumption to rise by 40 percent over the next15 years, which will make sustainable watersupplies extremely important,” Knauf explains.“Because of its high energy efficiency and lowCO2 balance, electrochemical seawater desali-nation can play a major role in regions suffer-ing from freshwater shortages.” Fenna Bleyl

Electrodialysis modules and seawater filters (below

left) have to be monitored regularly. High quality is

assured through periodic laboratory checks (bottom

center and right).

When it rains in Singapore, it pours. It istherefore difficult to imagine that this

tropical nation suffers from a lack of water.However, Singapore measures only 40 kilome-ters across at its widest point, which means itsland mass isn’t big enough to supply all of itsfive million inhabitants with drinking water ob-tained from either rain or groundwater. Singa-pore’s government has therefore come up withideas for solving the problem. It has trans-formed large stretches of land into reservoirs,has begun importing some of its drinking wa-ter from Malaysia, and now operates severalwastewater recycling facilities (see Pictures ofthe Future, Spring 2010, p. 44).

In addition, Singapore’s government viewsseawater desalination as an essential part of itswater management system. The problem isthat the two common desalination processes

— distillation and reverse osmosis — require alot of energy. The first uses the most energy —approximately ten kilowatt hours per cubicmeter (kWh/m3) of purified water, while thesecond is more economical, as it requiresaround four kWh/m3, most of which is used tooperate high-pressure pumps that push waterthrough extremely fine membrane filters.

Engineers at Siemens Water Technologieshave therefore been searching for an evenmore efficient technique. Back in 2008 theyset a new energy savings world record in a lab.This led to Siemens winning the “SingaporeChallenge” competition initiated by the coun-try’s government, which called for seawaterdesalination at a maximum energy consump-tion rate of 1.5 kWh/m3. Since then, Siemenshas been developing a commercial version ofits process, and in December 2010, using a

large pilot facility built with the help of the Sin-gapore Public Utilities Board, the companydemonstrated that its process uses only halfthe energy required with reverse osmosis. “Thenew method marks a revolution in seawaterdesalination,” says Dr. Rüdiger Knauf, Directorof Development at Water Technologies. “Thepilot facility shows that our technology notonly functions in the laboratory but also has adaily capacity of 50 cubic meters of water.”

Combining Two Processes. The trick behinddesalination à la Siemens lies in the combina-tion of two techniques. First, salt is removedfrom seawater using an electrodialysis unit(ED) built to handle high concentrations ofsalt. After that, water undergoes continualelectrodeionization — or CEDI — which re-moves smaller amounts of salt. This approach

“We expect global water consumption to rise by 40 percent over the next 15 years.”

Desalination: Plunging Price

Sludge Powers Water Purification Process A new biological water purification facility developed by

Siemens Water Technologies generates enough methane

gas to power its own operations. It also produces much

less sludge than conventional systems. The pilot facility

for this process, which is located at a site run by Singa-

pore’s Public Utilities Board, has been operating in an en-

ergy-neutral manner since June 2010.

The new facility’s predecessor used an aerobic (ventilat-

ed) process in which bacteria broke down impurities in water by digesting them and converting them

into new bacterial substances. This produced bacteria flakes filled with impurities — forming sludge that

is then separated and either deposited in landfills or burned. “This wastes energy, because the organic

impurities contain ten times more energy than we need to do the cleaning itself. All we have to do is use

it,” says Dr. Rüdiger Knauf, Director of Development at Siemens Water Technologies. However, sludge

concentrations in municipal sewage systems are too low to produce methane economically, so Siemens

development engineers use a trick. They charge the bacteria flakes with the organic impurities for only a

short time under ventilation. As a result, there is very little bacterial reproduction. After most of the wa-

ter is separated, the bacteria ferment the impurities into methane in an anaerobic process step. After

two aerobic steps and one anaerobic step, the sludge has been broken down so that the least possible

amount of sludge remains and the largest possible amount of methane is available for energy genera-

tion in gas turbines or combined heat and power plants.

The pilot facility now in operation cleans around half a cubic meter of wastewater per day. A convention-

al water treatment plant requires a little less than 0.25 kilowatt-hours of energy to do this, so the pilot

unit needs to generate roughly that amount of energy in the form of methane. Plans call for construc-

tion to begin in May 2011 on a pilot facility in Singapore that will be a thousand times larger than the

current unit and will be able to clean wastewater for around 2,000 residents. By comparison, a typical

urban water treatment plant accommodates water from 10,000 to 100,000 residents.

Market launch is scheduled for 2012. Existing water treatment plants could be retrofitted for the new

system, which makes Knauf confident that “the process will be a viable future water treatment alterna-

tive as energy prices rise and landfill capacity in many countries declines.”

Pictures of the Future | Spring 2011 3332 Pictures of the Future | Spring 2011

Prof. Li Junfeng (55) is the Chairman of the Academic Com-mittee of the Energy Research In-stitute and is currently serving asDeputy Director. His work focuseson renewable energy and climatechange issues such as the CleanDevelopment Mechanism (CDM)and carbon trading. He headed thefirst CDM project in China and is arepresentative in East Asia of theglobal Renewable Energy and En-ergy Efficiency Partnership.

Prof. Du Xiangwan (73) is theformer Vice President of the Chi-nese Academy of Engineering,Senior Scientific Advisor of theChina Academy of Engineering Physics, and aMember of the Standing Com-mittee of the China Associationof Science and Technology. Heserves as the deputy head of theNational Energy Advisory Com-mittee and is chairing a series ofstudies on China’s energy devel-opment strategy.

Dr. Shi Zhengrong (48) is Chairman of the Board of Directorsand Chief Executive Officer of Sun-tech, the largest producer of pho-tovoltaic (PV) panels worldwide.He is also said to be one of therichest individuals in China. Priorto founding Suntech in 2001, hewas a research director and execu-tive director of Pacific Solar, anAustralian PV company engaged inthe commercialization of next-generation thin film technology.

What role do you see for renewable energy in China?Li Junfeng: China is investing a lot in cleanenergy. We currently have more than 200 gi-gawatts of installed hydro capacity and morethan 30 gigawatts of wind, with more projectsdown the line. I think that by 2050 the shareof clean energy in China will be much largerthan many currently think it will be.Du Xiangwan: By 2050 renewable energy,including exotic forms such as marine and ge-othermal energy, could account for 25 percentof China’s total energy production. If these re-newables can be expanded, rather than build-ing coal-fired power plants with the equivalentcapacity, it could add up to a reduction ofroughly four billion tons of CO2 emissions.Shi Zhengrong: You may call me a dreamer,but I believe that one day China will be able tosatisfy all its energy needs by means of renew-able sources. It is all a question of determina-tion. If you are determined to do something,than you should be able to achieve it — espe-cially in China.

On the other hand, at the moment a large share of new capacity for electricityproduction in China comes in the form ofcoal-fired plants…Shi Zhengrong: China is still a developingcountry. We need strong economic growth,and we need to produce affordable energy toenable this growth. However, the governmentdoes realize the need for environmental pro-tection. There are strict regulations on emis-sions in place, and a lot of high technologygoes into new facilities. Coal-fired plants willbecome cleaner, but we need some time toget it right.Du Xiangwan: It is a fact that coal is not go-ing to go away overnight. It is an importantpart of our energy mix, accounting for morethan three quarters of total energy production.And new plants will be built in China. This inturn means that 100 percent renewables is anunrealistic goal. However, together with nu-clear power and natural gas, renewables willat least help us to reduce the growth of CO2

emissions over time.

The New Age of Electricity| Interviews

The pace of China’s economic growth is lifting millions of people out of poverty. However, it is bring-ing its own problems. While energy efficiency remains relatively low, demand for energy is risingrapidly. Pictures of the Future spoke with three experts about the future of China’s energy supply.Powering the Chinese Dream

Li Junfeng: I agree. Gas in particular will playan important role. It is a cleaner fuel than coal,and compared with Europe and the U.S. it cur-rently makes up only a tiny share of our ener-gy mix. We have to catch up in this area, andwe will. I am convinced that in the long runthe share of coal in China’s energy mix willgradually decrease rather than increasing.

When it comes to setting the right targetsfor reducing CO2 emissions, which of thetwo should we focus on: emissions percapita or by country?Li Junfeng: In my opinion we should base re-duction targets on emissions per capita. Anyother approach would be unjust. Take the ex-amples of China and the EU. China has approx-imately 30 provinces. The EU has 27 states —but only about 40 percent of China’s popula-tion. Why would we count China as one coun-try, but not the EU?Du Xiangwan: I think it is much fairer to cal-culate emissions per capita, since every indi-vidual should have an equal right to draw on

resources. China has a very large population.Taking aggregate figures distorts the picture. Shi Zhengrong: This is a political question.Suntech’s objective as a private company —besides being profitable — is to make a posi-tive overall contribution by enhancing the sus-tainability of energy production. Suntech hasto date delivered a total photovoltaic capacityof 2.5 gigawatts. This is equivalent to fivemedium-sized coal-fired plants. In 2010 alonewe delivered panels with a capacity of 1.5 gi-gawatts. And our production is rising, helpingto avoid CO2 emissions all over the world.

China may be the world’s largest produc-er of photovoltaic panels, but only a mi-nuscule number of them are used locally.What has to happen to make China a userrather than just a producer of PV?Shi Zhengrong: The government has to pro-vide subsidies so that manufacturers and in-vestors can make a reasonable profit. Therewould be an additional benefit in this ap-proach. Actually using the technology makes it

cheaper through economies of scale and byfostering further efficiency gains through in-novation. To reach grid parity in China, wemust bring the costs down to about ten eurocents per kWh. That’s an ambitious target, butwe can get there. And we have to be ambi-tious. In the past we only heard about theAmerican dream. Nowadays there are manyChinese dreams.

What role do power grids play in the context of increasing the share of renewables in China?Li Junfeng: The buildup of capacity in bothwind and solar power will aggravate fluctua-tions; the patterns of production are bound tochange extensively. This will require a morestable and more intelligent grid. China is cur-rently making investments in this area. In ad-dition, wind, solar, and hydro power plantstend to be in remote areas, far away from thecenters of consumption, which tend to be con-centrated on the east coast and in certain ar-eas in the south. This calls for high-voltage di-

rect current transmission lines like the one fin-ished in 2010, which links Yunnan andGuangzhou. I understand that it draws onSiemens technology.

One element in making renewables morerelevant is innovation. Do you believethat Europe and the U.S. are ahead of thegame in this regard?Du Xiangwan: Innovation is crucial to boththe U.S. and China. However, I admit that wehave not been particularly strong in this area.This does not mean we should emulate the Sil-icon Valley model. China’s problems have theirown shape — and we will come up with ourown ways of nurturing innovation to solvethem. If we take a look at research on energyin particular, it becomes clear that China has agrowing advantage. Many more new powerplants are being built on our soil than any-where else. Those who want to study new en-ergy technology at work have a good reasonto come to China.

Interview by Andreas Kleinschmidt.

electric mobility. He knows that a full chargewill power his movE for around 120 kilometersif he doesn’t drive too fast. When the “20 per-cent” light goes on, it means he’s running onreserve power. “I’ve never gotten stuck,” hesays, “but I don’t like driving with the reservelight on. So I always check Google Maps beforeI visit friends to make sure I know how far it is.”Orsolleck has developed a good sense of thecar’s range. On cold days, the battery is a littleweaker. “But you hardly notice it with the dis-tance for my commute — I always come homewith a 66 percent charge,” says Orsolleck. Nev-ertheless there is one drawback. On frosty

days, the windshield ices up because the elec-tric heater doesn’t get as hot as the exhaustheat generated by a combustion engine. It’sproblems like these that make clear just howimportant it is to conduct fleet trials underreal-life conditions. The Orsolleck family stilluses its gasoline-powered VW for longer trips— but more and more of its shorter trips aretaken with the movE. “The car is ideal for whatwe need to do in the city,” says Orsolleck. Butyou still need to consider alternatives forlonger distances, he adds, and mentions carsharing or car rental as possibilities.

Pictures of the Future | Spring 2011 3534 Pictures of the Future | Spring 2011

The New Age of Electricity | Electric Vehicles

Siemens has launched its first major fleet trials intended to test the entire conceptof electric mobility from electricity generation to battery charging and driving under everyday conditions. As many as 100 electric cars will be on the road and will be gradually equipped with charging, communication, and drive system technologies from Siemens laboratories.

56-kilowatt electric drive system, enough to re-liably power the diminutive 1,300-kilogramautomobile — assuming that the driver shiftsproperly when trying to edge into the passinglane, that is...

The after-work commuter traffic is heavy,and car after car drives by. Finally there’s abreak. The driver shifts into first and…movEglides at a frighteningly slow pace across theintersection. But wait! The driver has forgottenthat first gear is actually meant for maneuver-ing out of a parking space. If you want to sprintfrom zero, you’re better off in second gear. Hit-ting the gas pedal hard instantly pushes youback into your seat. So second gear is just finefor driving around town; it’ll even get you up to90 kilometers per hour easily. In reality, electriccars don’t even need a transmission. Still, thefirst movE models have one, as they are specialversions of the Suzuki Splash conventional ve-hicle. In just a few months, the next genera-tion of electric cars will take off in a flash with-out gear shifting.

which challenges still remain. “Driving this caris really a lot of fun,” says Orsolleck, a comput-er scientist. “My son is getting his driver’s li-cense and he’s already excited about drivingthe movE. Nothing about the car indicates itssignificance for the environment, and youngpeople simply think it’s cool.” Orsolleck was se-lected for the test program because his profileprecisely corresponded to what the companywas looking for. For one thing, the distancefrom his home to his workplace was ideal. Or-solleck lives in western Munich and commutesdaily to his job in Neuperlach, some 20 kilome-ters away in the southeastern part of the city.He used to travel by commuter train — now heguides his movE through rush-hour traffic. “Iwas thrilled by the idea of being part of the de-velopment of electric mobility,” he says.

“This market is interesting for Siemens be-cause we’ve got the needed expertise in all ar-eas — from electricity generation in powerplants to power transmission, electric drives,and end consumers,” says Andreas Romandi,

will involve the addition of new technical com-ponents. For example, Orsolleck still rechargeshis movE battery with 230-volt alternating cur-rent from a socket at home. After gettinghome in the evening, he uncoils a cable andplugs it into his car, whose battery is fullyrecharged six hours later. Soon, however, hewill have a so-called wallbox installed in hisgarage — a three-phase connection with acharging output of 11 kilowatts. This willcharge his 22-kWh battery in about two hours.The setup only requires laying a single cablefrom the house grid connection to the garage.

Fully Charged. Charging is one of the key is-sues being addressed in 4-S, whose main par-ticipants are a Siemens smart grid projectgroup and the Energy and Industry Sectors.“We want to find out how the power grid andelectric vehicles interact, which is why we’redeveloping various applications and businessmodels for vehicle-grid interplay,” says RalphGriewing, head of eCar Infrastructure at Ener-

While Klaus Orsolleck works in his

office, his electric car charges up at a station in

the company parking lot. A display in the vehicle

shows the remaining range and battery charge.

January is gray in Munich. Rain pounds onthe car roof and water kicks up under the

fenders. The noise seems louder than normal,however, because the vehicle itself doesn’tmake a sound. Instead, it glides along in com-plete silence. The small green-and-white carknown as a “movE” is one of 20 test vehiclesnow being driven by Siemens employees inMunich and Erlangen. Underneath its hood is a

gy. This includes the charging stations, whichare ready for market launch and have alreadybeen installed in several locations around Mu-nich, Erlangen, and Berlin. The utility companyin Erlangen is also involved in these activities.

The challenge is to ensure reliable commu-nication between driver, vehicle, and chargingstation. For one thing, the station needs to rec-ognize that a vehicle is actually connected,since safety considerations preclude electricityfrom flowing if this is not the case. In addition,the driver must be identified to ensure that thesupply company knows whom to bill. It’s likecell phone billing, says Griewing: “Dependingon where we are, we make calls via differentnetworks through roaming, but we only re-ceive one bill at the end of the month from ourprovider. That’s the way car battery chargingwill be billed in the future.”

Siemens is currently building a network op-eration center in Fürth, Germany that will be-gin monitoring communication between testvehicles and the electricity suppliers in mid-2011. Similar centers are already being operat-ed by car fleet providers, whose vehicles aregenerally unlocked by customers with a chipcard that also activates the onboard computer,which then establishes contact with the centervia radio. “As a systems supplier, Siemens canalso handle such functions with its operationcenter,” says Griewing. “In this case, the ownerof an electric vehicle fleet — for example, amunicipality — wouldn’t have to manage thecars itself, and this wouldmake the transition toelectric vehicles more at-tractive and convenient.”

In such a system, eachcar would be equippedwith an onboard computer— a kind of navigation sys-tem with electric mobility functionality. Driverswould use the computer to reserve chargingstation time or to request information aboutthe nearest station. The system could also noti-fy the center about defective charging sta-tions. The center, in turn, could send dataabout the current charge level to the driver’scell phone in response to questions such as: “Isthe vehicle fully charged? Can I make a quickstop at the supermarket?”

Solid Reserve. Orsolleck has gotten used tothe new ways of thinking that go along with

Klaus Orsolleck has gotten used to the idio-syncrasies of his movE, which he has beentest-driving since November 2010. About 200employees applied to take part in the largestSiemens fleet test to date, one that will includeas many as 100 vehicles by 2012. The goal ofthe “4-Sustainelectromobility” (4-S) project, asit is known, is to find out how electric vehiclescan be integrated into everyday traffic, and

4-S project manager at Corporate Technology.“Electric mobility will be a huge market in thefuture and we want to be at the cutting edgeof developments.” (See Pictures of the Future,Spring 2010, p. 92). The 4-S project addressesall the components of future electric mobilityscenarios — but not all at once, of course. The100 vehicles in the project will be put on theroad gradually, and each new project phase

Just Plug ‘er in!

An onboard computer provides infor-mation on available charging stationsand directions to the nearest one.

2020: Nearly 18 Million NewElectric Vehicles Worldwide

Sour

ce: H

SBC

Wind Power to Cover over Halfthe World’s Renewables Market

Sour

ce: H

SBC

2020: More than $1 Trillion for Low-CO2

Energy Production Worldwide

Sour

ce: H

SBC

Sour

ce: I

EA 2

010

Pure electric vehiclesPlug-in hybrids

Biofuels 18

2009

8

0

192

203

93

2020e

368

7

368

544

Heat from renewable sources

CCS

Nuclear power

Electricity from renewable sources2009

5

657

8,650

9,2262020e

0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000

in thousands of units investments in billions of US$

in %

2009

2020e

Declining Share of Fossil Energy Sourcesin the Global Electricity Production Mix

Geothermal 0.3 Wind 1Biomass and waste 1.3

Water 16

Nuclear 14

Gas 21Oil 5.4

Coal 41

Sea 0 Sea 0

2008 2035e

Coal 32

Geothermal 1

Wind 8

Solar PV 2

CSP 1Biomass and waste 4

Water 16

Nuclear 14

2020e

Water (“small hydro”) 49

Biomass 71

Solar 116

Geothermal 23 Wind 285

Gas 21Oil 1

in billions of US$

Pictures of the Future | Spring 2011 37

The New Age of Electricity | Facts and Forecasts

The trend is clear: Global demand for energy will

continue to rise sharply. The International Energy

Agency (IEA) estimates that global energy consumption

will be around 36 percent higher by 2035 than it was in

2008. This development is primarily being driven by ex-

panding economies in the emerging markets, as well as

by world population growth. Fossil resources are limit-

ed, however, and using them to provide energy causes

the biggest share of CO2 emissions.

The IEA believes this dilemma can be solved through

more efficient use of energy and greater utilization of

electrical power in applications where fossil fuels contin-

ue to dominate — assuming such electricity is produced

without emissions. “We believe electricity produced

from renewable sources will be the most important

form of final energy in the future,” says Prof. Ulrich Wag-

ner, member of the Executive Board of the German

Aerospace Center (DLR). The range of future application

possibilities for clean electricity is enormous, from

household appliances, lighting, and machines, to heat

pumps, desalination facilities, and electric vehicles. A

study conducted by the German Physical Society (DPG)

in 2010 concluded that “electricity is easy to generate

and transmit, and it can also be used very conveniently

and flexibly.” The IEA adds that for “no other form of fi-

nal energy” will there be such a sharp increase in de-

mand as for electricity. In fact, global electricity con-

Our Evolving Energy Mix

sumption could likely rise by around 70 percent by

2035, with most of the increase to be accounted for by

emerging markets such as China.

Many homes and offices around the world are still

heated with gas or oil. If electricity is to be produced in

the future with low CO2 emissions, though, it makes

sense to implement the necessary heating system up-

grades in older buildings by installing electrical systems,

according to the DPG. Because of this — and also due to

higher demand for electrical devices in countries outside

the OECD — annual electricity consumption in buildings

will rise by 1.5 percent between now and 2035, despite

energy conservation measures. The share of global fi-

nal-energy consumption accounted for by electricity will

then likely rise from 27 percent today to 37 percent.

The potential for using electricity in automobiles is

also tremendous. “Electric mobility can reduce petrole-

um consumption and prevent emissions of climate-dam-

aging CO2 and other pollutants, provided no fossil

sources are used to generate the electricity,” says the

DPG. The German government expects one million elec-

tric vehicles on the road (in Germany) by 2020, and ex-

pects five million in operation by 2030 (including plug-

in hybrids equipped with both an electric motor and a

combustion engine).

Plans in the U.S. and China are even more ambitious.

Both of these countries want to have one million electric

cars in operation by as early as 2015. A study conducted

by investment bank HSBC in 2010 estimates that the

market volume for electric vehicles will total $473 billion

by around 2020. By that time, there are expected to be

8.7 million pure electric cars and 9.2 million plug-in-hy-

brids on the road.

The key to launching the new age of electricity is to

ensure rapid de-carbonization of power generation. The

IEA anticipates that the share of the world’s electricity

produced with coal, gas, and oil will fall from 67 percent

today to about 55 percent by 2035. During the same pe-

riod, the proportion of power from renewable sources

including water, wind, and the sun will rise from 19 per-

cent to 32 percent. And these forecasts are reflected in

the outlook for the market. Siemens experts believe that

in 2020 more than half of total global investment in the

power plant market will be accounted for by renewable

energy facilities. HSBC expects the global market vol-

ume for low-CO2 energy production to increase from

$422 billion in 2009 to $1.043 trillion in 2020.

Alongside hydropower, the main sources of CO2-free

electricity in the future will be energy from the wind —

and to a lesser extent solar energy. HSBC expects that by

2020 the wind-power industry will boast the lion’s share

of the renewable energy market with a stake of $285

billion. Solar power will follow with a $116 billion share

of the market. Anette Freise

36 Pictures of the Future | Spring 2011

One of Siemens’ project partners is SixtLeasing, which manages the company’s elec-tric car fleet. If an e-car breaks down, Sixt takescare of the towing and provides a replacementcar as soon as possible. Sixt Board memberMark Thielenhaus says 4-S is a pilot projectthat’s on target and important: “The market isstill in its infancy, but we’re already seeing de-mand from company car pools,” he says, refer-ring to Munich and the Erlangen-Nurembergareas, where employees often drive back andforth between branch offices. The challenge,says Thielenhaus, lies in providing fast service.“We already have a Germany-wide network of2,500 authorized service and repair centers forconventional cars. Such a network still has tobe built for electric vehicles. We’re still experi-menting, but in two or three years we shouldsee a serious market develop,” he says.

Fast Charging. Initial experience with 4-Sshows that e-cars are ready for everyday opera-

es. Siemens is working on a solution with BMWin an induction project funded by Germany’sMinistry of Research. This will undergo testingin mid-2011 in Berlin.

Siemens researchers are also working onrapid charging features that channel electricityinto the battery with greater power. Such afunction would reduce charging times to onlyminutes. At present, the fastest Siemenscharging station — which has a power of 22kilowatts — takes around one hour to fullyrecharge a battery. That’s already double thespeed of the previous generation of chargers.

Orsolleck charges his car at the companyparking lot during the day and at a householdsocket at night. This is more than enough forhis needs — and probablythose of many other driv-ers. “We believe that elec-tric vehicles will slowlytake over the automobilemarket — initially as sec-

ies at the same time, it will overload older localtransformers,” Wietschel explains. Griewingagrees, and that’s why the 4-S project team isworking on an intelligent charging control sys-tem for ensuring that not all vehicles in an areaattempt to maximize there charging simulta-neously when drivers hook up to the grid inthe evening. Moreover, an intelligent meter ina wallbox would enable charging in line withthe latest electricity prices, whereby powerwould be cheapest when TVs and washing ma-chines are turned off at night and industrial fa-cilities have shut down.

Wietschel advises caution, however. “It hasyet to be shown that customers will go forsuch a pricing model,” he says, explaining that

they would have to pay close attention to vary-ing electricity rates: “If the economic gain ismarginal, many consumers might lose inter-est.” Still, Siemens researchers point out thatthe required intelligence can be put into thecar itself, which means the vehicle would needjust a small amount of information from thedriver to make a decision as to when electricityis cheap enough. Romandi is confident theproject will ultimately come up with the rightanswers to all of these questions. Test driversare initially leasing the vehicles at a very favor-able price for a period of 30 months; the fee in-cludes electricity, maintenance, insurance, andpotential repair center costs. Siemens continu-ally incorporates its latest research results andtechnologies into the project. It’s still notknown how much new knowledge 4-S willyield, Romandi says.

Wolfgang Geus, chairman of the Erlangenpower utility project partner, has a similarview. “We’re using electric vehicles to find outwhether all the requirements for the cars, in-cluding charging infrastructure and low-volt-age network, can be met. The challenges in-volve the influence of weather conditions onbattery performance and lifespan, chargingoptions in private and public garages, billingmodels, and load processes in the low-voltagenetwork,” he says. Siemens intends to get asmany companies as possible involved in theproject. Germany E-Cars is currently providingthe vehicles. Siemens plans to install its owninverters with a charging feature, as well asdrive system components, in the coming gen-eration of 4-S cars. This will ensure that the ve-hicles themselves will have more “Siemens in-side.” Tim Schröder

tion in and around cities. But several questionsremain open. For example: What’s the bestcharging technology? CT developers are work-ing with BMW on three charging modes — al-ternating current (AC), direct current (DC), andinduction (see Pictures of the Future, Fall2010, p. 34). The problem is that Europeanand international standards have yet to bedrawn up. The AC system has the chargingtechnology in the vehicle, which affects theprice of the car. With DC, the battery can berapidly charged in the vehicle without a charg-ing regulator, which in this case is in the charg-ing station. There’s no clear agreement at themoment as to where the charging unit shouldbe installed — i.e. in the vehicle or outside ofit. Induction charging is also a promising alter-native. Here, the battery is charged in a con-venient manner via an electric field without acable. The problem is that the energy mustbridge the air gap between the charging unitand the battery, which results in electrical loss-

ond cars for use in the city,” Romandi says. “Wealso expect around 1.5 million purely electricvehicles to be on the road in Germany by2020.” Romandi is certain the automobile mar-ket will become more varied. Hybrids — vehi-cles with both gasoline and electric motors —are expected to become the cars of choice forall types of use. On the other hand, an eco-nomical diesel might remain ideal for a sales-man on the road.

Grid Challenges. Prof. Martin Wietschel is thedirector of the Energy division at the Fraun-hofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Re-search in Karlsruhe. He believes the extensiveexpansion of electric mobility will cause prob-lems with power grids in local communities. “Iften electric cars on a street charge their batter-

Electric vehicles in Siemens’ pilot project have a

range of approximately 120 kilometers and can

be recharged in two hours using a special wallbox

installed at home.

“We expect around 1.5 million purely electric vehicles to be on theroad in Germany by 2020.”

Pictures of the Future | Spring 2011 3938 Pictures of the Future | Spring 2011

The New Age of Electricity | Biogas

Biogas power plants are booming. Siemens’ infrared spectrometry technology now makes it possible to continuallymonitor their output and thus operate them automatically.

ers” in phases three and four. These then con-vert acid into methane. “You can run into prob-lems if too large a volume of easily digestiblesubstances like sugar beets is on the menu,”Fleischer says. In this case, too much acid willform in too short a time, causing the mixtureto turn sour and the methane-producing bac-teria to become less healthy and thus less pro-ductive. Less acid is then broken down, andthat damages the bacteria even further. Thewhole process may then come to a completehalt, at which point the bacteria in the fer-menter will die.

CT’s new measuring unit transmits infraredrays into the bacterial soup via glass fiber ca-bles. The radiation that returns is measured bydetectors the size of a fist. “Fatty acids alter in-frared light in a unique way,” Fleischer ex-plains. The more acid there is in the mixture,the greater the changes. The data can also beused to determine how many of which types ofbacteria are working in the reactor, and howlarge the ratio is between solids and liquids.“This method is relatively inexpensive and ro-bust as compared to other chemical analysistechniques,” says Fleischer.

Farmers, Sewage Plants, and Landfills.The results of CT’s pilot study will generate in-terest around the world. Biogas can be easilystored, fed into the natural gas grid or, as is thecase with Götz, used on site to produce elec-tricity and heat. A study by the Trend ResearchInstitute estimates that German exports of bio-gas power plants alone will more than doubleover the next ten years.

Germany now has over 5,000 biogas units— more than any other country. “Collectively,these produce a lot of bio-methane, which,when converted into electricity, generates thesame output as two large power plants,” saysHirsch. The biggest users of the technology arefarmers looking to make extra money. Howev-er, biogas facilities can also be found atsewage plants and landfills, where they makebio-methane from wastewater and garbage.

To accelerate this trend, Siemens re-searchers plan to closely study bacteria feedwith the help of infrared lamps in order to im-prove feed quality. “Cost considerations havemade feed mixtures more and more heteroge-neous,” says Fleischer. Many biogas plant oper-ators now use food industry waste, for exam-ple. Götz has tried out robust wild plants, andeven weeds from public and private gardenscould be used to make biogas in the future,says Fleischer. Siemens experts will have to re-fine their method if the methane-producingbacteria are to be kept happy under such tryingnutritional conditions. And they’ll need a lot ofspecialized knowledge here — not to mentiongood gut instincts. Andrea Hoferichter

Josef Götz and his son regularly take samples

from a fermenter (right) and then have them

analyzed. Siemens researchers plan to use an

infrared spectrometer to evaluate the status of

biogas facilities much more rapidly online.

Thanks to years of experience, Josef Götzcan follow his gut instinct. Götz, a farmer

from Markt Indersdorf in Bavaria, also needs tocall on this experience for his biogas powerplant, as the bacteria that transform foragecrops and slurry into methane in the unit’s un-derground fermenter literally work in the dark.

This guessing game is required because un-til recently no affordable measuring techniqueexisted for continually monitoring the complexoperation of the fermenter. Creating optimalconditions for measurements is also difficult.“At the moment, we can only send samples toan external lab, so there’s a time lag until wecan make adjustments,” Götz explains.

Biogas is converted into electricity and heatin a cogeneration plant. Ideally, the plantshould generate 860 kilowatts of electricity,whereby each kilowatt hour translates into 15cents of income for Götz. But Götz can alsolose hundreds of thousands of euros if theplant fails to operate optimally. “Operationnear maximum capacity gives you the bestmethane yield,” he says.

The type, amount, and composition of thenutrients fed to the bacteria primarily deter-mine whether they develop to their most ad-vanced stage, weaken, or even die. If the latter

occurs, the entire facility will wither like a gar-den pond with too much fertilizer. This canlead to complete plant failure — a risk that vir-tually no operator is willing to take. If a plantfails, the fermenter has to be emptied,cleaned, and refilled. The entire fermentationprocess then has to be restarted, and this cantake months.

With this in mind, researchers at SiemensCorporate Technology (CT) have developed asolution in the form of measurement technolo-gy that ensures the full automation of biogasplants. The system might soon be tested withGötz’s unit. The heart of the system is a spec-trometer the size of a briefcase. The device op-erates with light in the near-infrared spectrum,which contains slightly less energy than thatemitted by a heat lamp. “The spectrometer canmeasure the acidity of the mixture in the fer-menter around the clock,” says Prof. Maximil-ian Fleischer, whose team at CT developed thedevice.

Acid concentration is a key indicator of theconditions inside a fermenter. If it exceeds acritical level, the fermenting process will shutdown. “Continual process monitoring there-fore allows biogas plant operators to react veryquickly to problems by, for instance, changing

the bacteria feed composition as soon as acidconcentrations rise,” Fleischer explains. Ifcountermeasures are to function automatical-ly, the measurement data must be interpretedand converted into clear commands such as“add corn” or “decrease slurry content.”

Achieving this kind of transparency is thejob of Volker Hirsch from the Siemens IndustrySector. “We use Simatic process controls thathave already proved their value in the chemicalindustry,” he explains. Siemens technology isnow used in Götz’s unit to collect data on tem-perature and gas composition. But Götz never-theless has to take a sample to a lab everyweek for acid analysis, a process that involvessubstantial costs and runs the risk that infor-mation will be late. That’s why Götz has highhopes for real-time measurements.

Siemens researchers first had to under-stand the details of the complex processes inbiogas facilities before they could tailor near-infrared spectroscopy to meet the require-ments of these facilities. “Methane is producedin four phases,” Fleischer explains. A differenttype of bacteria handles each phase. In thefirst two phases, bacteria break down nutrientsinto interim products such as butyric and aceticacids, which can be digested by their “cowork-

Maximum Methane

The New Age of Electricity

In Brief

Electricity is expanding its role in our daily lives

as it moves into application areas that are still

dominated by other energy sources. These range

from electric vehicles to building systems and de-

salination plants. Global electricity consumption is

therefore set to rise rapidly — by around 70 per-

cent between now and 2035, according to the

International Energy Agency. (p. 14)

Hydrogen is an ideal energy carrier and an

important raw material for the chemical industry.

The gas can be obtained from water by electroly-

sis carried out using surplus electricity from re-

newable sources, for example. Siemens engineers

are working on new electrolyzers that could form

the basis for future energy storage units. (p. 26)

In the future, intelligent buildings will au-

tonomously adjust their electricity consumption

to fluctuating supplies of solar and wind power.

One way of doing this will be to temporarily shut

down ventilation systems and pumps without

sacrificing comfort. Siemens is already working

with Munich’ Technical University on software

tools for managing building systems in line with

available electricity supplies. (p.17)

Smart electric meters are bringing the vision

of a “digital” electricity supply closer. In the Swiss

district of Arbon, for example, Siemens has been

replacing around 8,700 household meters with

new smart units since 2007. This work will be

completed by the end of 2013. Siemens re-

searchers at a smart grid test facility in Erlangen

are developing technologies for the intelligent

power networks of tomorrow. (p. 22)

Ensuring the supply of drinking water is becom-

ing increasingly difficult in many coastal regions.

But desalination by distillation or reverse osmosis

still needs a lot of energy. Siemens engineers

have now developed a new desalination method

that works using electric fields and cuts desalina-

tion energy requirements in half. (p. 30)

More and more alternatives to fossil energy

carriers are now available. These include tidal

power plants resembling underwater windmills.

Such a plant has generated a record output of

1.2 MW of green electricity off the coast of

Northern Ireland for 1,500 households since

2008. (p. 29)

PEOPLE:

Smart buildings:

Joachim Kiauk, Industry

[email protected]

Christoph Hielscher, Energy

[email protected]

Solar cooling:

Peeush Kumar Bishnoi, CT India

[email protected]

Feeding solar power into the grid:

Dr. Michael Metzger, CT

[email protected]

Smart meters / smart grids:

Dr. Jochen Schäfer, CT

[email protected]

Joachim Bamberger, CT

[email protected]

New lighting systems:

Henry Feil, Osram

[email protected]

Philipp Kräuchi, Industry

[email protected]

Electrolysis:

Dr. Manfred Waidhas, Industry

[email protected]

Tidal power plants:

Kai Kölmel, Energy

[email protected]

Desalination:

Dr. Rüdiger Knauf, Industry

[email protected]

Dr. Andreas Hauser, CT

[email protected]

Electric mobility:

Ralph Griewing, Energy

[email protected]

Andreas Romandi, CT

[email protected]

Biogas plants:

Dr. Maximilian Fleischer, CT

[email protected]

LINKS:

Karlsruhe Institute of Technology:

www.kit.edu

Fraunhofer Institute for Solar Energy Systems

ISE: www.ise.fraunhofer.de

DPG study “Electricity — Key to a Sustainable

Energy System”:

www.studien.dpg-physik.de

SeaGen tidal current power plant:

www.seageneration.co.uk

Pictures of the Future | Spring 2011 4140 Pictures of the Future | Spring 2011

Agentle breeze wafts through the narrowalleyways of the Masdar Institute on this

winter morning. Marwan Mokhtar, a student,is on his way to the Caribou coffee shop, buttakes a slight detour. He walks past his dormi-tory, the walls of which are covered withcurved concrete slabs punctuated by openingsthat let in light but keep direct sunlight out. Alittle further on, he passes the library. Here,the exterior walls are lined with insulating gas-filled plastic cushions. Mokhtar walks alongthe terrace with its view of the desert that isslowly filling up with construction sites.

The Masdar Institute of Science and Tech-nology where Marwan is studying is part of thefirst phase of Masdar City, one of the most sus-tainable cities in the world. Projected to even-tually accommodate up to 40,000 residentsand 50,000 daily commuters, the city is goingup near Abu Dhabi’s international airport, in acountry that sits on top of nearly one-tenth of

the world’s oil reserves and in a place with theworld’s highest per capita environmental foot-print.

Marwan, who is 24, is pursuing his master’sin mechanical engineering, but the degreeprogram here has little in common with thoseat many other academic institutions. All 153students at the Masdar Institute and its 40 orso faculty members are expected to devote atleast half of their time to research projects.Most of these projects are focused on renew-able energy, energy efficiency, and sustainabletechnologies. Standing on the terrace,Mokhtar points to a tower off in the distancerising up out of the desert. “My power plant isbeing built back there,” he says, exaggeratingonly slightly. “His plant” is a small experimentalsolar-thermal power plant where he is testing anew design.

There is no doubt that Masdar City is aunique urban development project. But it adds

up to more than just the large-scale use of pio-neering technologies. It is also a gigantic test-bed in which these technologies can mature.At its heart is the research-oriented Masdar In-stitute — a driver and virtual think tank for theentire project. Here, Siemens, which is slatedto build a smart power grid and supply high-ef-ficiency building systems, is partnering withMasdar to conduct research into technologiesfor smart buildings, smart grids and carboncapture and sequestration. Indeed, the compa-ny plans to move its headquarters for the en-tire region to Masdar City in order to have a lo-cal presence where things are happening. Inaddition, Siemens’ Oil & Gas Division has beenheadquartered in nearby Abu Dhabi since2010.

21st-Century Silicon Valley. What is beingbuilt here in the immediate vicinity of some ofthe world’s most productive oil wells could be-

come the Silicon Valley of the 21st century andone of the most important innovation centersfor green technologies anywhere. Who wouldhave thought that possible just ten years ago?In the first half of the last century, the region’splace on the world economic map was, at best,as a way station for maritime traffic headed to-ward Asia. Its role changed dramatically in thesecond half of the 20th century, however. Oiland gas exports brought wealth to the region.The Gulf thus became an important sales mar-ket for products from highly developed coun-tries and used its steady flow of income to ac-quire holdings in companies in Europe, theU.S. and Asia.

The development of the Gulf region’s eco-nomic model did not end there. The area isnow establishing future-oriented industries ontheir own soil. These include energy-intensivemanufacturing processes such as aluminumproduction. That the Gulf region is an attrac-

Pictures of the Future | Sustainability in the Gulf

More manufacturing, more research, more green energy. The Gulf regionis preparing for the post-oil era. The passion of the region’s young people and the technological expertise of companies such as Siemens are opening new horizons.

Opening New Horizons

The energy-efficient buildings of the

Masdar Institute are the first building blocks

of Masdar City. Over 150 students, including

Noura Al Dhaheri and Marwan Mokhtar

(bottom right), study here.

tive production location is documented by itshigh level of direct foreign investment. SaudiArabia, for instance, has benefitted from near-ly €150 billion in investment over the last 20years. And over the next ten years it plans todouble its electrical generating capacity as itcontinues to industrialize.

Siemens has been awarded a contract val-ued at over €1 billion to supply twelve high-ef-ficiency gas turbines, generators and steamturbines for the Saudi Ras Az Zawr power sta-tion. The plant, which will have an output of2,400 megawatts, is scheduled to enter serv-ice in 2014. Siemens is alsobuilding a production andservice center facility forgas turbines in Saudi Ara-bia, which will open in2012. In th future, localservice and maintenancewill be managed fromthere. This investment of several hundred mil-lion U.S. dollars is expected to create 1,000jobs and enable the creation of as many as3,000 more with local suppliers.

To prepare their own people for a diversi-fied future, the Gulf nations are investing in-creasingly in education — for example, at theSiemens-supported KAUST University in SaudiArabia (see Pictures of the Future, Spring2010, p. 108). According to MarwanKhraisheh, Dean of the Masdar Institute, “Thekey to higher productivity is education. Tradi-tionally, education systems in the Arab worldhave been based on conventional teacher-cen-tered instruction, where the professor is thesource of information. But the world of learn-ing has changed. In the future, professors willact more as guides and advisors for responsi-ble students. That is exactly the approach weare taking at the Masdar Institute.”

Khraisheh is convinced that Abu Dhabi willbecome a global research and knowledge hub.This will help to achieve the region’s statedgoal of manufacturing an increasing numberof products based on high technology, andthus preparing it for the day when its oil andgas fields begin to dry up, or when oil simplybecomes too expensive for most of us to af-ford.

Dean Khraisheh has recruited his facultymembers from some of the world’s most pres-tigious universities. For instance, Masdar Insti-tute was established in collaboration with the

prestigious Massachusetts Institute of Technol-ogy (MIT), and its students are among the bestof the best. They come from over 30 countriesand have top scores on international standard-ized admission tests. Many of them wouldhave had a good chance of being accepted attop universities in the U.S.

But Masdar Institute offers some thingsthat even Ivy League universities can’t match.Its students experience the application of thetechnologies they are researching up closeevery day — things like a cooling tower, for ex-ample, right outside of Mokhtar’s window.Fashioned after the cooling towers in tradition-al Arabian cities, it takes in air at a height of 45meters and directs it to the ground. Jets spraymist into the flow of air, and the increasinglycool air sinks further. The fresh breeze spreadsout over the entire Masdar Institute campusand makes Marwan’s morning walk to the lab

Abu Dhabi is to become a global science and technology hub — a forum for research and knowledge.

Pictures of the Future | Spring 2011 4342 Pictures of the Future | Spring 2011

more bearable in the sweltering summer heat.The electricity needed for the system is gener-ated with the help of photovoltaic panels onthe roofs of the Masdar Institute and at a solarfield, which has a capacity of 10 megawatts.

“I would never have heard about the Mas-dar Institute if it weren’t for a friend of mine,”recalls Marwan, who studied mechatronics inAmman, Jordan and already had a passion forclimate protection. He equipped the cafeteriaof his university there with solar panels. At theMasdar Institute, he spent his first year work-ing as a research assistant before beginning hismaster’s program. “Because the campus is sointernational, my friends now come from allfour corners of the world.” His goal is to be-come an engineer and build large-scale solar-thermal power plants.

Masdar instead of New York. Noura Al Dha-heri is working on a PhD at the Masdar Insti-tute. Two out of every five students at the Mas-dar Institute are women. “With my grades, Icould also have done my doctorate in NewYork, for example. I had the offers,” says AlDhaheri who is from the United Arab Emirates.“But I preferred to study here in my homecountry.” Some of her friends wonder why sheis bothering studying a strenuous technicalsubject at all. Thanks to oil and gas revenues,natives of the wealthy Emirate Abu Dhabi canearn a good living even without high academicqualifications. But as Al Dhaheri says herself,she doesn’t just want a comfortable life. “Iwant to work toward a future without oil.” Shechats briefly with her classmates, and thenleaves the Caribou for class.

Abu Dhabi is not the only gulf country withhigh ambitions — both economic and with re-spect to sustainability. The 2022 Soccer WorldChampionship will draw the world’s attentionto Qatar. This will be an opportunity to show

how even in one of the world’s most inhos-pitable regions a mega-event can be held in asustainable manner by, for example, coolingthe stadium with power from photovoltaic andsolar-thermal plants.

As knowledge, labor, raw materials and vastenergy resources come together productivelyaround the Gulf, the region is turning into anew and increasingly important hub in theglobal economic network. The gigantic air-ports in Abu Dhabi and Dubai testify to thistrend.

Cooling and Prayers. The diverse influencesthat development is bringing to the regionhave the potential of changing both the coun-tries around the Gulf themselves and their peo-ple. The Sheik Zayed mosque in Abu Dhabi, forexample, illustrates how traditions that givethe region its identity can still hold their own inrapidly changing times. The mosque is theeighth-largest in the world. Its 82 domes ofvarious sizes rise as much as 75 meters into thesky, with minarets reaching a height of 107meters. The building, whose last sections werecompleted in 2010 after roughly ten years ofconstruction, can hold up to 40,000 people.

Five times a day the mosque’s air condition-ing system ramps up before dropping backdown to a lower level. It does so in coordina-tion with prayer times, when the number ofvisitors increases. To ensure that this happenssmoothly and that no pockets of heat or mois-ture are formed in this complex building,Siemens installed roughly 8,000 sensors,many of them for temperature and humidity— a challenging task, recalls Rajesh Vaswaniof Siemens Building Automation. “The numer-ous domes make it very difficult to computethe air flows in this huge building, to say noth-ing of the extreme climatic conditions. An ad-ditional challenge was that we had to make a

particular effort to hide the building systems,”says Vaswani. In the atrium, for example, ventswere integrated into the ornamental wall dec-orations. You have to look twice to even noticethat they are there.

The modern and the traditional converge inSheik Zayed mosque, which is the largestmosque in the Emirates. This also needs tohappen in the region as a whole, which is char-acterized by an abundance of oil and gas onthe one hand and by the effects of climatechange on the other; by the wealth of manyEmirati and by the relative poverty of guestworkers; by the increasing aspirations for cre-ativity and high technologies from the regionitself and by the simultaneous wish to preservetraditional values and structures.

The future of the region lies in the hands ofyoung people like Noura Al Dhaheri. She andmany others are convinced that a future with-out oil is inevitable sooner or later. “I have ayoung son,” she says. “I want him to live in aworld worth living in and whose ecosystemsare intact. We simply have to get away fromoil.” Andreas Kleinschmidt

Pictures of the Future | Interview

Waleed Al Mokarrab AlMuhairi (36) is Chief Oper-ating Officer of MubadalaDevelopment Company, an investment and develop-ment vehicle of the govern-ment of Abu Dhabi.Mubadala makes invest-ments that are helping toestablish globally competi-tive local industries and arefacilitating the diversifica-tion of Abu Dhabi’s econo-my. Al Muhairi has workedas a consultant with McKin-sey and holds a Master’s degree from Harvard Uni-versity and a Bachelor’s degree from Georgetown University.

Investing in Intellectual Capital

What will Abu Dhabi’s economic modellook like in 2050?Al Muhairi: You will probably see a diversifica-tion away from the resource-led growth modelover the next 40 years. This means less depend-ence on oil and gas, and more dependence oninnovation and productive sectors. Some of thesectors that look set to grow rapidly are petro-chemicals, aerospace, semiconductor manufac-turing, and renewable energy, to name just afew. The common theme that ties them togeth-er is their emphasis on intellectual capital andengineering talent.

Many say that the lack of skills in the re-gion is currently the limiting factor forthis process to kick off. How can this bechanged?Al Muhairi: There are three aspects to this.First, we have to jump start our educationalsystem. The Masdar Institute of Science andTechnology is a great example of how this ishappening. We want our young men andwomen to be excited about math and science.Second, we need to remain an attractive placefor highly skilled expatriates, who are seekingemployment in the region. We want and needthe best and brightest from all over the world.Thirdly, we have to offer an infrastructure thatis both efficient and stimulating. Currently, wesee branches of the Guggenheim Museumand the Louvre being built on Saadiyat Islandin Abu Dhabi.

What is your vision for manufacturing inthe Gulf region?Al Muhairi: The type of manufacturing youwill see in Abu Dhabi will be capital intensive,and often energy intensive. It will be high-val-ue added manufacturing that builds on a highdegree of innovation. An excellent example isaluminum smelting and the manufacturingprocesses linked to it. Given the abundantavailability of natural gas as a major input fac-tor, we are in a very competitive position. An-other example is the aerospace industry. HereAbu Dhabi is not focusing on metallic compo-nents, but on advanced materials, like carbonfiber and composite materials. For these prod-ucts we are already a supplier to Airbus — ourinitial contracts are worth over US $1 billion.And we are quickly building up capabilities

and expertise in this small but highly produc-tive niche. This is not only excellent businessin itself, but also a logical move from a strate-gic point of view. After all, It’s a very goodthing to have large and thriving airline hubs inthe region.

What opportunities do you see in thearea of green tech?Al Muhairi: Abu Dhabi has set an ambitioustarget for itself when it comes to renewableenergy production: a seven percent share ofelectricity production capacity by 2020. This ischallenging by current standards but I thinkMasdar, our renewable energy and clean tech-nology initiative, is going to be at the forefrontfor delivering on this goal. Masdar invests cap-ital in those areas of renewable energy inwhich we believe we can develop a compara-tive advantage. Solar is the most obvious ex-ample. At the same time, we can use the Mas-dar Institute — of which Siemens is animportant partner — to build up our educa-tion infrastructure.

When will you personally switch to anelectric car?Al Muhairi: Once they are readily available onthe market and the necessary charging infra-structure is in place. It is good news thatSiemens and others are making good progresson this front.

Interview by Andreas Kleinschmidt.

Mubadala

Mubadala Development Company is an investment

and development vehicle of the Emirate of Abu

Dhabi with assets of approximately US $24 billion.

The company has a double mandate of delivering

both commercial and social returns on its invest-

ments, partly by fostering local industries. The Gov-

ernment of Abu Dhabi, which is the sole sharehold-

er of Mubadala, has mapped out a detailed strategy

for the diversification of the Abu Dhabi economy

with the aim of reducing its reliance on oil and gas.

This strategy, “The Abu Dhabi Economic Vision

2030,” serves as a roadmap for Mubadala.

Sheik Zayed mosque in Abu Dhabi is the eighth-largest mosque in the world. Building systems from

Siemens help to keep the temperature inside the giant building, which can hold 40,000 people, bearable.

Abu Dhabi intends to establish a world-class

healthcare system. Like the Tawam Molecular

Imaging Center shown here, many parts of this

system will use equipment from Siemens.

Computer log of the international Bound-less Research Space Station (BRSS), Head

of Station Desmond Blacc: We have a visitor to-day, the world-renowned microbiologist Prof.Aleksandr Miller. He has just joined us via holo-gram from the Russian “city of science” Skolko-vo, but we’re still waiting for the voice connec-tion to be established. We are confident thatProfessor Miller will confirm that we are stand-ing on the threshold of a new era of research. Iwould like to explain exactly why we think so.Three months ago our space probe “Science-flight” docked for the first time at BRSS afterflying through the asteroid belt between Marsand Jupiter. We then made a sensational dis-covery. Adhering to the probe’s surface weredust particles containing components of mi-croorganisms. Had we found signs of extrater-restrial life? We immediately sent a sample toour “Microcosm” research module. There we

Pictures of the Future | Spring 2011 4544 Pictures of the Future | Spring 2011

Research without Borders | Scenario 2030

2030. In the BRSS international space station, astronauts are looking for answers to the fundamental

questions of our time. They have just discovered microorganisms in space, and they sense the beginning

of a new era of research — but first the microbes haveto be analyzed. An international network of researchers

on Earth will help them in their quest.

Cosmic Mystery

Highlights46 Networking Knowledge

Many pioneering technologies arecreated through international proj-ects — with universities, research institutes, and partnerships with companies. Pages 46, 49, 50

52 Schools of ThoughtThe success of international coopera-tions can be threatened not only byprofessional disagreements but alsoby intercultural misunderstandings.That’s why Siemens has been ad-dressing this problem for years at itsLearning Campus. In an interview,Prof. Alois Moosmüller explains howintercultural misunderstandings canbe minimized from the very start.Pages 52, 54

56 Products Set to SizzleThanks to international networks,companies are discovering what consumers in emerging economies are looking for. The results include high-tech products at low-budget prices, and a combination of tradi-tional Chinese medicine with Western science. Pages 56, 58

60 Idea GeneratorsWhat‘s it like to do research in an international network? Five scientiststalk about their “research without borders.” Pages 60, 61, 62, 64, 65

74 Heading for Science CityIn three years, top researchers fromaround the world will be working inSkolkovo, a brand new science enclave near Moscow.

2030Scientists in a new space station have discov-

ered a previously unknown form of life by

means of a space probe and have sent it to

Earth for analysis by a research network.

Where do these microorganisms come from?

And will their gene sequences revolutionize

science? These questions can be answered

directly by microbiologist Aleksandr Miller,

who is present in the form of a hologram.

Pictures of the Future | Spring 2011 47

Research without Borders | Trends

To maintain an edge in innovation on the international stage companies such as Siemens need to utilize their global knowledge networks as effectively as possible. Although this presents huge challenges for researchers and developers, it offers them fascinating new opportunities.

Whether it’s CO2 separation at MIT (top), virus

research in Berkeley (center), new lighting systems

(bottom), or power grid optimization, researchers

benefit by networking their knowledge.

Networking Knowledge

ceived funding of €17.5 billion; and the cur-rent seventh program (2007–2013) has beenallocated more than €50 billion. The EU-fund-ed joint projects in which Siemens participatesare extremely varied. The “Internet of Things atWork” project, for example, has scientists un-der the direction of Siemens Corporate Tech-nology (CT) studying the Internet of the future,which will link machines rather than peoplewith one another.

Other current projects are geared towardachieving the EU’s goal of firmly establishingenergy production from renewable sources —and Siemens is participating in these as well(see p. 50). “The objective of the EU’s R&Dfunding programs is to consolidate Europe-wide knowledge in order to create a founda-tion for globally successful innovations,” saysDr. Ina Sebastian, a CT staff member in Munichwho is responsible for managing Siemens’ par-

ticipation in EU-funded projects. The companyis involved in approximately 50 such projectsat the moment. “The Commission works metic-ulously to ensure that knowledge is truly con-solidated and that two organizations don’t endup studying the same thing. This is a key in-strument for avoiding conflicts of interest anddisputes involving the use of research results,”Sebastian adds. This approach also simplifiesthe clarification of questions regarding patentapplications, ultimately ensuring that knowl-edge and intellectual property are sufficientlyprotected and that successful products can becreated as a result (see p. 75).

Global Melting Pot. Siemens’ activities in EUprograms are supplemented by its participa-tion in other research programs around theglobe. In the U.S., for example, the company isexamining new technologies for separating

world market. One such heavyweight isSiemens.

A Commitment to Innovation. For compa-nies, a long-standing and effective method forgaining an edge in innovation is to bring differ-ent sources of expertise together. That’s onereason why, since 1984, Siemens has partici-pated in framework research programs spon-sored by the European Commission. These pro-grams bring together the brightest Europeanscientists and technicians from research organ-izations, universities, and companies in orderto strengthen Europe’s international competi-tiveness. The amount of money the EU spendson these programs illustrates the high priorityit assigns to Europe’s innovation capability. Theinitial program, which ran from 1984 to 1987,was funded to the tune of approximately €3.3billion; the sixth program (2002–2006) re-

The 21st century is a very dynamic age.Globalization is continuing at a rapid pace,

and global competition is intensifying as a re-sult. This poses tremendous challenges — forcompanies as well as entire nations. Accordingto international strategy consulting firm Booz& Company, expenditures on research and de-velopment in industrialized nations such asGermany and the U.S. fell by more than threepercent in 2009 as compared to the prior year.China and India, on the other hand, increasedtheir R&D budgets by a substantial 41.8 per-cent during the same period.

In other words, the balance of research anddevelopment power is shifting away from theestablished industrialized nations to theemerging markets. At the same time, this shiftis offering R&D heavyweights in the industrial-ized nations a wealth of opportunities to con-tinue playing a major role in the reshuffled

46 Pictures of the Future | Spring 2011

can carry out research under zero gravity con-ditions while our main section rotates and cre-ates an artificial gravitational force to protectus from muscular and bone atrophy — a safetymeasure that would have been impossible tenyears ago.

But to get back to our “Microcosm”: Our Chi-nese partners are using it to carry out biomed-ical research. Together with a research networkconsisting of scientists at U.S. and Europeanuniversities, in recent years they have usedprotein analysis under microgravity conditionsto discover completely new classes of biomark-ers for the early detection of diseases and todevelop new substances for cancer therapy.They received the Nobel Prize for this work.Their success shows how gigantic amounts ofknowledge can be generated within an inter-national network of this kind and applied in atargeted fashion.

That’s an advantage from which we benefithere every day. We’re also working on minimiz-ing the potential for cultural misunderstand-ing. I intend to institute a stronger requirementfor researchers to participate in virtual intercul-tural training courses — even if these courses

only consist of lessons in how to prepare spacerations. But joking aside, I wanted to tell youabout the microbes. Our researchers are veryexcited about this incredible discovery. Theyhave analyzed the microbes’ DNA fragmentsand discussed them with our Russian special-ists in biochemistry, but they did not initiallycome to any definite conclusion. They were ex-tremely frustrated by this. Up here we’ve gotsome of the world’s best researchers in thearea of innovative alloys, whose heat resist-ance made it possible for the first fusion powerstation on Earth to begin operating two yearsago. We’ve also got first-class scientists in thearea of bone growth and the structure of cellskeletons. Together with the global researchnetwork of universities, research organiza-tions, and companies, we are answering manyof the questions that mankind is concernedwith today — the growing scarcity of raw ma-terials, climate protection, and the health prob-lems of our aging world population.

But we were simply unable to find an ac-ceptable answer to the question of what kindof life form we had discovered. That’s why wesent a microbe sample to Skolkovo on a supplyship of the Circinus class, a successor of thespace shuttle that was jointly developed by the

U.S., Russia, and China. There, the microbewas supposed to be assessed under the super-vision of Professor Miller. Would we be able tocombat disease even more effectively with thehelp of these tiny creatures, for example? Ormight they help us to discover new sources ofenergy? These were the questions we wereasking here at BRSS. My Scottish colleagueJames Farquharson made a rather cheeky com-ment at the time. He claimed to be certain thatthese were merely microorganisms from theEarth that were leading us in the wrong direc-tion. I couldn’t help betting him a bottle of finewhisky that he was wrong, and I expect to winit as soon as Professor Miller tells us his conclu-sion. Right now I can see a cross-section of themicrobe being projected as a hologram in frontof him. All we need now is the voice connec-tion… Ah, I can hear something now.”

“Kkkrrzzz…hello-krrzzz… Hello, BRSS, canyou hear me now? This is Aleksandr Miller fromSkolkovo. After weeks of research, discussions,and analyses we were able to successfully ad-dress your inquiry. Your sample does in factcontain previously unknown microbes. Actual-ly, I’d prefer to say ‘generally’ unknown mi-

crobes. As you can see inthe hologram in front ofme, they are in some re-spects different from theforms of life that areknown to us here on Earth,but nonetheless they haveone factor in common

with them. They originated on Earth. However,we estimate their age to be at least 500 millionyears. This ultraresistant species was probablycatapulted into space at one point by the im-pact of a meteorite. Despite its earthly origins,this discovery is very interesting, because itcontains some gene sequences that were pre-viously unknown to us. They could certainlyhave applications in biotechnical industry or inthe field of energy technology. We would liketo establish research projects in these areas incooperation with you. Some of our colleaguesfrom Princeton, Shanghai, Bangalore, andSkolkovo are already set to begin. We’re alsocertain of receiving financial support from theinternational research association of the Unit-ed Nations. You will receive the DNA analyses,including the protein structure and cell config-uration, in the next few days. Can we count onyour cooperation?”

“Professor Miller, this is Desmond Blaccspeaking for the entire team. We’re thrilledabout this proposal for a new cooperative proj-ect without boundaries, and we’ll be glad toparticipate. We’ll be in touch with you. End ofmessage! Entry in the computer log: I guess Iowe Farquharson a bottle of the very bestScotch whisky.” Sebastian Webel

“We have developed new substancesunder microgravity conditions for cancer therapy.”

Pictures of the Future | Spring 2011 49

Research without Borders | University Collaborations

In collaboration with top-ranking international universities, Siemens is developing groundbreakingtechnologies in a range of areas, including the intelligent and efficient management of energy. In practical terms, such intercultural cooperation can be complicated, not least because of the distances involved. But for researchers, it all adds up to an enriching experience.

Working in a team across different timezones can mean having to get up earlier

or sacrificing your lunch break,” explains Dr.Yan Lu. She works at Siemens Corporate Tech-nology (CT) in Princeton, where she has beenhead of the research collaboration with theUniversity of California, Berkeley (UCB) sincesummer 2010. Despite having to allow fortime differences, she enjoys this type of inter-cultural work. When she was writing her doc-toral thesis, she also worked with studentsfrom around the world. Only occasionally doesshe notice differences in mentality. “My pro-gram manager comes from Germany, and he’svery intuitive and straightforward; we Asiansaren’t quite so direct,” says Lu, who is from Chi-na. “But when you’re working in a team, it’svery important to know how people think andfeel.”

With her nine-member team, which com-prises researchers from China, India, Germany,and the U.S., Lu is working on a building man-agement system that uses automated load

Meeting of Minds in Cyberspace

control to respond to grid needs. This methodof handling mismatches between supply anddemand eases the burden on power grids (p.17). The interface between a power grid and abuilding system is a so-called smart energybox. The clever aspect of this device is that iteven knows how much electricity costs at anygiven moment and can therefore tailor thepower consumption of building occupants inline with their daily routines. The system is be-ing tested in a building on the Berkeley cam-pus. The university provides expertise in the re-search and development of decentralized loadcontrol systems. Siemens is responsible forcentral load management, equipping thebuilding, and analyzing project results.

There’s a good reason why Siemens is work-ing with Berkeley, which came in second in the2010 Academic Ranking of World Universities,right behind Harvard. Since 2009, Berkeley hasbeen a participant in Siemens’ Center ofKnowledge Interchange (CKI) program. CKIpromotes long-term partnerships with

renowned universities in major research fieldssuch as sustainability. “It’s a classic win-win sit-uation. The university gets to know what therelevant problems are for industry and can di-rect its own resources accordingly; and forSiemens, it’s very important to have access tobasic and applied research as well as studentsand up-and-coming researchers,” explains JackHurley, who is responsible at Siemens Corpo-

Siemens researchers in Munich are working

with MIT scientists in Boston on smart control

systems for building automation. They bridge their

6,500-km separation with videoconferencing.

48 Pictures of the Future | Spring 2011

and storing CO2 in a project funded by the U.S.Department of Energy. “Participation in suchprojects gives us access to diverse innovationand research activities,” Sebastian explains. “Atthe same time, the international networks thathave been established through projects allowus to accumulate a great deal of new knowl-

edge. All of this is part of the Open Innovationpolicy that Siemens has been extensively pur-suing for many years outside the orbit of EUprograms as well.” (see Pictures of the Future,Spring 2010, pp. 84–113)

Indeed, Siemens establishes more than1,000 new joint programs with research insti-tutes, other industrial companies, and universi-ties every year (see p. 49). The company alsomaintains strategic partnerships with severaltop universities that are geared toward joint re-search, fostering young talent, and establish-ing networks. Siemens has in fact set up “Cen-ters of Knowledge Interchange” (CKIs) at theseuniversities, each of which is headed by a KeyAccount Manager directly on site. The CEOs ofnational subsidiaries and business units, andeven members of the Siemens ManagingBoard, also serve as advocates for some of theCKI universities.

The lines between business units, coun-tries, and cultures within the company are alsobecoming increasingly blurred. “When re-searchers from different countries come to-gether, you end up with a fascinating meltingpot of knowledge,” says Dr. Tabea Arndt, a CTmanager for Superconductor Development —an area of research for numerous scientistsaround the world (see p. 7).

“Each culture brings its own unique per-spective to the table,” Arndt explains. “For ex-

ample, whereas we Europeans know a lotabout materials research, scientists from coun-tries such as Japan that have few raw materialsand extremely dense populations often spe-cialize in efficiently utilizing materials in com-pact solutions. This broadening of our horizonsthrough our innovation partners benefits the

research activities weconduct throughout theGroup every day.”

The same is also truewhen IT experts from Ban-galore work with col-leagues from Munich orShanghai on intelligent

image processing programs for surveillancecameras, for example (see p. 56), or when en-gineers from Siemens Healthcare in the U.S.and Germany get together to develop and pre-pare the world’s first full-body MR-PET scannerfor its market launch (see p. 70).

Moving into New Markets. This “researchwithout borders” offers other benefits as well.“Joint research programs with our internation-al partners also enable us to learn about re-quirements in their markets and to adapt ourprocesses and solutions to local conditions,”says Sebastian. According to Deutsche BankResearch, more than 90 percent of leadingtechnology companies pursue this type of re-search outside their home markets. The mostpopular R&D locations are the emerging mar-kets, whose specialized requirements (i.e. theneed to meet complex technical demands atlow cost) had previously prevented market en-try on a large scale.

The idea here is not to simply transfer R&Dactivities, but instead to establish new activi-ties — which is part of the basic philosophy ofcompanies such as Siemens that wish to re-main at the cutting edge of innovation andtechnology developments in the future. That’sbecause when someone in India discovers howto develop a high-tech product that can be soldat one tenth the price it would cost in the U.S.,

he or she creates an innovation that higher-priced product segments can benefit from aswell. Whether it’s medical equipment or ener-gy solutions, Siemens has been successfullydeveloping such innovations for years in itsS.M.A.R.T. program. Here as well, the companyutilizes the expertise of its global research net-work (see p. 56).

Intercultural Stumbling Blocks. Despite itsscientific and economic benefits and success-es, global cooperation does have its pitfalls,and these often have to do with human natureand interaction.

“People in each culture go about their dailybusiness and take care of things in completelydifferent ways, and they also utilize differentlearning habits as they do so,” says Dr. AloisMoosmüller, a professor for Intercultural Com-munication at Ludwig-Maximilians-Universityin Munich. “A company needs to be able todeal with that.” (see Interview, p. 52) “We fre-quently get caught up in situations in whichwe don’t understand one another. This makesjoint project work in teams more and more dif-ficult, as people become increasingly unwillingto work together constructively.”

Such disputes are anything but minor dif-ferences of opinion for Siemens — a companythat not only operates a global research net-work but also does business in 190 countries.That’s why Siemens set up its own internal“Learning Campus” training and consultingcenter in 2003 (see p. 54).

The Learning Campus thoroughly preparesSiemens employees for the dominant cultureat their future work locations once they havereceived an assignment to move abroad —whether the company is sending them to Chi-na, India, or North America. The policy pur-sued at the center has a clearly defined objec-tive: to make global teamwork more successfulby fostering intercultural understanding. Afterall, in our dynamic age no one can afford to goback to the days of the cultural ivory tower anymore. Sebastian Webel

Siemens establishes over 1,000 jointprograms with research institutes,firms, and universities every year.

Left: A Boston-Munich videoconference. Right : Development of ultrasound medical devices for the Indian market. Both are examples of Siemens’ global research network.

Pictures of the Future | Spring 2011 51

Research without Borders | Research Cooperation

Research is increasingly taking place across national borders. Indeed, many research projectsthroughout the European Union already demonstrate what can happen when Europe’s greatestminds come together. Whether it’s the Internet of things or new lighting technologies, Siemens is at the forefront of Europe’s research and innovation activities.

Uniting European Expertise

knowledge generated by such EU projects aremore valuable than an injection of capital,” Se-bastian claims.

Internet of Things. One such project is the“Internet of Things at Work” (IoT@Work), inwhich scientists under the direction ofSiemens CT study the Internet of the future,which will link machines rather than people.“Our goal is to make communication betweenindustrial machines and Internet technologiesmore intelligent,” says Project Manager Dr.Amine Houyou. The aim is to make the com-missioning and replacement of defective com-ponents as simple and fast as exchanging USBsticks in a PC. Assembly lines in the auto indus-try could then be retrofitted more rapidly, andproduction networks could respond au-tonomously to defects and reconfigurations.

This would make production more flexibleand allow manufacturers to produce variablesmall lots for different customers instead ofhaving to rely solely on mass production. Atthe same time, the Internet of things will help

to prepare factories for extreme events in thefuture. “IT security wasn’t really an issue in theearly days of the Internet,” says Houyou. “Butin our project, security solutions are developedin parallel at every step, leading to an overallconcept in the end.” For one thing, industrialfacilities will be made more secure againsthacker and virus attacks.

The European Commission selected onlyone tenth of all the applications for the IoTproject. Because of its technical excellence,Houyou’s concept was among those chosen.

With her Siemens colleagues in mind, Se-bastian searches for suitable projects such asIoT, forwards the information to them, and as-sists them with their applications. The lattercan be as long as 80 pages and must includenot only objectives, work package descrip-tions, and process phases, but also a list of pos-sible partners. After a unit has been approvedfor a project, coalition negotiations are imme-diately initiated. Each partner is granted rightsof use for the results, and patent distributionissues are negotiated in detail.

If negotiations have not concluded after sixweeks, the EU can rescind a project’s applica-tion. Houyou’s team includes security expertsfrom the European Microsoft Innovation Cen-ter and staff from City University London, aswell as Italian consulting firm TXT. Also onboard are software architecture specialists,Centro Ricerche Fiat (which is demonstratingsome of the project results at its facilities), and

Siemens researchers are participating in nearly

50 EU-funded projects focusing on everything from

machine networking (left, Fiat plant) to OLEDs

(below) that put violins in a new light.

50 Pictures of the Future | Spring 2011

rate Technology for joint projects with universi-ties in North America.

Cultural diversity within a research group isextremely productive, especially when itcomes to developing innovations. It providesmuch faster access to the latest know-how inGermany, for example, or to the requirementsof the Chinese market, or to the needs of Indi-an consumers. After all, the products that areunder development are destined for marketsall over the world. “Research without borders isvital, because products and information are ul-timately all available globally. There’s no pointworking in a vacuum,” says Professor DaveAuslander, who manages the project for Berke-ley. He is also aware of the challenges that cul-tural difference can pose to this kind of work.The first barrier is language. It’s difficult to con-duct a technical discussion with only a basicvocabulary.

“You Know…” Siemens also operates a CKI al-liance with the world-renowned Massachu-setts Institute of Technology (MIT) in Boston,which is home to some of the world’s leadingexperts in the field of control theory. “Our goalat MIT is to gather knowledge,” says Dr. DraganObradovic, who works closely with researchersthere. Based at Siemens’ Research Center inMunich, Obradovic has headed a five-persontransatlantic team since October 2008. He is atypical member of the global research commu-nity. Born in Serbia, he earned his doctorate atMIT, lives in Germany, has an Italian passport,

Multidisciplinary research is at least as oldas the Royal Society, the fellowship of

scholars and scientists that was founded 350years ago. Although the society was Britishthrough and through, it always sought to es-tablish networks with the best scientific mindsin Europe. Today, the European Union’s Frame-work Research Programs (FRP) seek to focusEurope-wide research expertise. The seventhprogram, which is currently under way, has re-ceived more than €50 billion in funding.

“Any firm that wants to play a leading rolein Europe’s research landscape has to get to-gether with other companies if it’s going tostand up to powerful American and Asian com-petitors,” says Dr. Ina Sebastian, who is respon-sible for EU Project Issues at Siemens Corpo-rate Technology (CT). Part of Sebastian’s job isto guide CT through the jungle of availablefunding opportunities. CT is currently involvedin almost 50 EU-funded projects. All in all,about 20 percent of its research activities areconducted within the framework of publiclyfunded partnerships. “The networks and

and starts even German sentences with theEnglish words “You know…”

With his fellow researchers from the U.S.,Obradovic develops intelligent control systemsthat play a vital role in the building automationsystem being developed by Lu’s team, for ex-ample, and in self-regulating control systemsfor power networks. Such systems are basedon sensors and actuators that collectively forma kind of intelligent nervous system. To processtheir output, however, an intelligent nervecenter is needed — a controller that usessmart algorithms to reliably and sensiblyprocess the wealth of measurement data gen-erated by sensor networks. This can pose bigchallenges, especially when accommodatingthe effects of intermittent sources of energysuch as the sun and wind on the power grid.Furthermore, the strain on the grid is set to in-crease in the future as more and more electriccars are hooked up for recharging. On the oth-er hand, the batteries of such vehicles can helpincrease grid stability. Equipped with an intelli-gent control system, they will also be able tofeed electricity back into the network (see Pic-tures of the Future, Fall 2010, p. 34).

“Topics like grid management are universal,so research should be global too,” saysObradovic. In addition to developing controlalgorithms, the researchers in his team are in-vestigating ways of ensuring that the requisitedata packets can be exchanged more or less inreal time and without loss. Even the pure disci-pline of mathematics can produce differencesof opinion among members of an internationalteam. “Different cultural outlooks can lead tofriction now and then. But that’s good becauseyou can learn new approaches to problems,”says Obradovic.

The roughly 6,500 kilometers between Mu-nich and Boston are not impossible to over-come for Obradovic. “We’re very much gearedto teleworking. Online chats, video confer-ences, and desktop sharing are all routine,” hesays. At least twice a year he flies over to visithis colleagues in Boston or vice versa, becauseonscreen contact is no replacement for face-to-face meetings. Personal visits make it easierto see things from colleagues’ perspectives andunderstand their working environment.

The trend toward global research is unmis-takable. Thanks to the Internet, we can com-municate with others in real time anywhere inthe world. Obradovic is already dreaming of avirtual 3D lab. In 20 years, he believes, virtualmeetings between team members around theglobe, or joint projects on online platforms willbe a fact of daily life. “You know,” he muses, “Ijust don’t know what the limits of technologyare. Someone may even come up with a betterremedy for jet lag or invent faster airplanes!”

Silke Weber

A global research team at the University of

California, Berkeley is testing a new energy

use control system for smart buildings.

Research without Borders | Interview

Intercultural Communications:Seeing the Signposts, Avoiding the Pitfalls

oriented approach. And finally, the Japanesehad a lot of discussions between themselvesbefore they presented their results, which theAmericans and the Germans interpreted as alack of independence or even as an attempt toconceal information. In other words, coopera-tion between the teams increasingly ran intodifficulties.

How did they manage to solve theseproblems?Moosmüller: We gave the employees trainingin intercultural skills, where they were askedto explain how they perceived the behavior ofthe other teams. By articulating their reac-tions, they were able to develop an under-standing of the fact that people from othercountries behave in different ways — and thatyou have to be prepared for this and deal withit. That’s very important. People are not thesame the world over. The way people goabout doing things, how they arrange theirdaily affairs, what kinds of learning habits theyfall back on — all those things are completelydifferent from culture to culture. You have tobe prepared for that.

In the light of increasing globalization,what kind of challenges are companiesand their employees going to be facing inthe future?Moosmüller: Joint research projects are al-ready doing a lot for the field of intercultural

communication. At many companies employ-ees at certain levels are expected to possessand exercise good intercultural skills. Diversityis the key. Today everyone needs to be globallyminded. However, a lot more people claim tomeet this requirement than is actually thecase. The result is that people get less supportin this area than they actually need. Further-more, there is now increasing pressure to staypositive about things. Yet in intercultural com-munication especially, it’s vital to be able totalk about difficulties as well. If there is no op-portunity to deal with problems in an honestway, you end up creating permanent prob-lems. Anyone working in an intercultural envi-ronment is going to get frustrated at times, isgoing to categorize and stereotype — that’sunavoidable.

How can companies go about dealingwith this situation?Moosmüller: Supervisors have to be pre-pared to take employees seriously, along withthe problems that inevitably crop up in inter-national projects. Measures that are helpful include the use of process monitors and theintroduction of regular meetings during whichconcrete problems can be discussed. That usesup time, but it is definitely worth the effort.Supervisors should allow time for employeesto do this — and they should also properlycommunicate this fact.

Interview by Gitta Rohling.

distance to reflect on what’s happening. That’swhy it’s crucial to a step back for a second andtake the time to think about the situation. Ifthe German engineer had discussed thee-mails with a colleague, the two of themwould certainly have worked out what theChinese businessman was getting at.

Is a moment of reflection or a discussionwith colleagues enough to ensure suc-cessful intercultural communication?Moosmüller: As a rule, it helps enormously.But it’s important to remember that intercul-tural competence is not the same thing as afamiliarity with the foreign country in ques-tion. Obviously it’s an advantage to know thelanguage and the customs of the country, butanyone who has to deal with people from a lotof different countries can’t be familiar with allthe details of each individual culture. So it’snot merely a question of knowing the rightway to hand over a business card in China, forexample. What’s really important is the abilityto reflect on misunderstandings, ask ques-tions, and adopt a different perspective. That’swhat intercultural competence is all about. It’sabout learning how to deal with differencesand diversity.

Let’s imagine a situation. Three scientistsare working on a joint project, one in Mu-nich, one in the U.S., and one in Japan —where you lectured and did research for anumber of years. How would they all getalong together? Moosmüller: There’s a very concrete exampleof exactly that situation. In the mid-1990sSiemens, IBM, and Toshiba set up a joint proj-ect with a total of 150 employees to developDRAM chips. Things got off to a great start.But after half a year a number of problemshad developed. One difficulty was that thevarious teams found the daily presentations ofresearch results boring and even counterpro-ductive. Why? The Americans, for example,presented their work in a short and snappy in-teractive manner, which the Japanese feltlacked credibility, since they wanted to havebackground information. The Germans, on theother hand, described the problem for whichthey were looking for a solution, which tendedto irritate the Americans with their solutions-

Pictures of the Future | Spring 2011 5352 Pictures of the Future | Spring 2011

Prof. Alois Moosmüller (58)holds the Chair of Inter-cultural Communication at Ludwig-Maximilians-University in Munich (LMU).An ethnologist by training, he spent five years as an associate professor at KeioUniversity in Tokyo, where he investigated how U.S. andGerman multinationals basedin Japan approach the issue of intercultural cooperation.His current research interestsare transnational communi-ties and foreign postings of employees within organizations.

What are the typical difficulties that ariseduring encounters between people fromdifferent cultures?Moosmüller: Imagine the following situation:A German engineer e-mails a Chinese cus-tomer about the latter’s forthcoming visit toGermany. In the first e-mail, the Chinese busi-nessman asks how to get from Munich to thetrade fair in Frankfurt; in a second e-mail, heinquires how often the trains run from Munichto Frankfurt; in a third, from which platformthe trains depart; and so on. The German en-gineer is at first mildly irritated, then annoyed,and finally he writes a rather curt e-mail —whereupon he hears nothing from the Chi-nese customer for quite a long time. That’s be-cause he failed to understand the real reasonfor all the questions.

The Chinese customer wants to be met atthe airport?Moosmüller: Exactly. The Chinese business-man is saying: Meet me at the airport, inviteme out for dinner, let’s talk about new proj-ects, and then you can take me, if not toFrankfurt, then at least to the main train sta-tion in Munich. When we look at this situation,we can see immediately what’s going on, butsomething like that is easy to miss in the rushof everyday business. And that’s often theproblem in intercultural communication. Weget tangled up in a moment of incomprehen-sion because we don’t have the time and the

52 Pictures of the Future | Spring 2011

Institut Industrial IT in Lemgo, which is respon-sible for IoT project automation and communi-cation technologies.

100 Million Degrees Celsius. The EU is alsofunding projects that address new methods ofgenerating energy, including nuclear fusion(see Pictures of the Future, Spring 2010,p.106). For decades, Scientists have been try-ing to harness and profitably exploit this virtu-ally inexhaustible and CO2-free energy source.But getting atoms in a fusion reactor to form aplasma requires temperatures as high as 100million degrees Celsius. Although the tempera-ture drops to a maximum of 2,000 degrees atthe reactor walls, it’s still too hot for most ma-terials. A European research and industrial con-sortium under the direction of the Max PlanckInstitute for Plasma Physics has now developednew high-performance materials. Almost 40partners, research institutes, universities, andmaterials manufacturers from six countrieshave participated in this huge project.

Participants held meetings alternately intheir home countries, which included France,Greece, and Slovakia, to exchange results. Be-tween meetings, they worked independently,while also discussing issues via e-mail or byphone as necessary andpassing along their resultsthrough desktop sharingsystems. The project’swork packages were pre-cisely distributed amongthe partners and processphases. Siemens carriedout extensive tests to find out how resistantthe materials were. The five-year project,which ended in September 2010, led to thecreation of new technologies for industrial sec-tors. Siemens’ Energy Sector, for example, islooking for heat-resistant materials for its tur-bine blades. That’s because the higher thetemperatures the blades can withstand, thegreater will be the efficiency of the powerplant in which they are installed. High-temper-ature materials can also be used for powerelectronics in trains that are exposed to ex-treme thermomechanical stress loads.

Insufficient R&D? The seventh FRP is thelargest funded project of its kind in the world.But with research and development expendi-tures totaling 2.1 percent of gross domesticproduct, the EU remains below its own R&Dtarget of three percent. It also trails its U.S. andJapanese competitors in this regard (see p.68). That’s why, if European companies wantto keep pace in the global race to develop toptechnologies, they must constantly enter intonew partnerships and be on the lookout forpotentially game-changing market trends.

Organic light-emitting diodes (OLEDs) rep-resent one such fundamental trend. At theheart of every OLED are plastic coatings a hun-dred times thinner than a human hair. Theseluminescent plastics are already used in cellphones and flat screens. The monitor market isnow dominated by Asian countries. But thatdoesn’t mean that Europe doesn’t plan to be amajor player in the lighting business.

Siemens’ subsidiary Osram introduced itsfirst OLED, the “Orbeos,” at the end of 2009.However, the product is still too expensive foruse in general lighting applications. With thisin mind, the EU’s project CombOLED (Com-bined Organic LED Technology) was initiatedto help search for new ways to lower manufac-turing costs so as to pave the way for the massproduction of OLEDs.

A consortium of companies, labs, and uni-versities led by Osram, which also receivedconsiderable support from Siemens CT, workedon the project for three years. The result wasthat a combination of wet coating and highvacuum techniques turned out to be the leastexpensive method of producing OLEDS. Wetcoating enables economical production; highvacuum techniques ensure high-quality bright-ness, efficiency, and a long lifespan.

Flat and Bright. Another EU project is fo-cused on developing light-emitting electro-chemical cells (LEECs) that are thin and flat,like OLEDs. “LEECs’ simple design leads to man-ufacturing benefits such as the ability to useroll-to-roll processing,” says CT researcher Dr.Wiebke Sarfert. Prototypes are already produc-ing light in Siemens and Osram labs, but thetechnology is still in its infancy as compared toOLEDs. Researchers are examining basic ap-proaches to creating white light, as well as theuse of roll-to-roll wet coating processes forachieving higher throughputs. The project in-cludes partners from all over Europe. Siemenshas particularly close ties to, and also ex-changes knowledge with, the University of Va-lencia, which is responsible for the project’scomponent physics. The university’s studentsare often invited to Siemens’ labs to familiarizethemselves with applied research.

No company can develop such innovationson its own, which makes it all the more impor-tant for European nations to pull together tomaintain an edge. What’s more, there’s a bigplus for participants: they get to know eachother. Silke Weber

Companies must constantly enter intonew partnerships if they want to keeppace in the global technology race.

Pictures of the Future | Spring 2011 5554 Pictures of the Future | Spring 2011

Research without Borders | Learning Campus

In order to achieve success in international markets, it’s vital to enhance one’s ability to understand foreign cultures. That’s why Siemens has been conducting intercultural training programs for more than 30 years. The Learning Campus, an internal training and consulting center,was founded in 2003 — a pioneering step toward ensuring intercultural business expertise.

due to the fact that Chinese society is develop-ing very rapidly. Things change every day, sopriorities for various activities are reassigneddaily. Now Harms no longer waits until thedeadline; she checks up more often in order tomake sure her task stays high on the list whenschedules are rearranged.

One question Tang always hears about isthe role of women. And indeed, the seminarcovers the culture of gender. “As a rule, a ca-reer woman will have no difficulties in China,”he says. “If she does the same work as hermale colleagues, she receives equal pay.”Harms knows that fromexperience. “It’s muchmore common to seewomen in technical pro-fessions in China than inGermany,” she says. Thesame cannot be said aboutIndia or Arab cultures.

Intercultural communication has been a fo-cus of academic researchers for over 20 years.At Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität in Munichthere is even a department for this discipline.Prof. Alois Moosmüller, the department chair,counsels companies to introduce extensiveprograms in intercultural skills training. “Theaim is to prepare employees for the globalbusiness world, make them sensitive to othercultures, and enable them to engage in self-re-flection,” he says (see p. 52). It’s not enough toknow that in China a business card is handedto someone with both hands, or how to prop-erly eat spring rolls, or that belching is consid-ered praise for a good meal, for example.

Indirect Communication. Experts at theLearning Campus therefore use role play andcomplex case studies to hone participants’ in-tercultural business skills. In one class, Tangplays the role of a Chinese employee and oneof the participants plays his German boss. Af-terward, Harms and the others analyze the sit-uation, deduce what is behind the behavior,and talk about feelings and the intention ofwhat was said.

“The goal is to sensitize participants to cul-tural issues. We do that through training cours-es in communication, presentation, and man-agement styles for many different countries,”says Robert Gibson, who has been teaching onthe Learning Campus from its inception. He’sreferring to matters such as one’s attitude to-ward hierarchies and the way one expresses anopinion, addresses a problem, or deals withconflict. For example, in China it’s advisable tospeak about problems indirectly and avoid go-ing on the offensive — an approach that Euro-peans, and especially Americans, are not ac-customed to. In China, indirect communicationusually gets you to your goal faster. In genuine

crisis situations, Germans often refer to thefine print of the contract, whereas Chinese tryto arrive at a balance of interests on the basisof the actual situation. Tang explains that innegotiations Germans reveal their positionstoo early, while dismissing the step-by-stepconcessions made by the Chinese as a “salamitactic.” The two cultures also differ in the waythey deal with complex issues. “One thing I’velearned is that presentations to Chinese col-leagues should start out with a detail they arefamiliar with,” says Harms. “That’s a good basisfor explaining a more complex system.” Work-

ing by means of references is a well-estab-lished component of Chinese culture. “Once Iknow that, I can organize my business activi-ties completely differently,” Tang confirms.

German employees are used to separatingprivate matters from business activities, but inmany cultures the contrary is true. “If you don’tdevelop an emotional connection with a per-son, you can’t work with him or her,” saysTang. In China, guanxi — one’s network of per-sonal contacts — is very important, and it’smainly built up outside the workplace.Whether you’re being interviewed for a job ormeeting a business partner, you should alwayscheck to see whether the person you’re talkingto knows somebody you also know. If so, theconversation will immediately become severaldegrees warmer. For people traveling to China,it’s a big advantage to know somebody therewho can integrate them into such a network.

A common language will not in itself pre-vent intercultural misunderstandings. “Justlook at British people and Americans. Theyspeak the same language but can still com-pletely misunderstand one another,” saysTang. Harms, who speaks English with her col-leagues, says, “You may think a matter is com-pletely clear, but it’s clear on two completelydifferent levels. Our trainer vividly explainedthis kind of situation, where people are talkingat cross-purposes.” It’s the difference betweenwhat people say and what they mean.

At the end of the day-long seminar, the par-ticipants go to a Chinese restaurant. In this au-thentic, relaxed atmosphere, Tang casually of-fers additional tips — for example, don’t eateverything; politely leave a bit of rice in yourbowl. Mirna Harms has repacked her imagi-nary suitcase for her next trip to China — witha much larger portion of intercultural businessexpertise. Silke Weber / Sabine Sauter

Special training courses taught by experts such as

Zailiang Tang familiarize employees with unfamiliar

communication processes and the facial expressions,

gestures, and body language of other cultures.Zao shang hao” are Zailiang Tang’s words ofwelcome to the course participants. The

eight Siemens employees who have gatheredhere at a conference hotel in Munich are listen-ing intently to the instructor, who works forthe company’s own academy — the LearningCampus. Only Mirna Harms is a little skeptical.She has been working for over a year on a proj-ect with Chinese colleagues, so what can shereally learn at this seminar on “InternationalCooperation with a Focus on China”?

For Siemens, with its local workforce ofmore than 43,000 and sales of over €5 billion,China is a key focus of international coopera-tion. This makes it all the more important forthe company and its business partners to un-derstand one another. Communication canquickly become a fiasco if it runs up againstcultural barriers. That’s why intercultural train-ing courses are an important component of in-ternal education programs — not only with re-gard to China, but also for other countries suchas India, Thailand, and the U.S.

International School of Thought

“Most cultural training courses teach toomuch culture and not enough business,” saysTang, who trains administrators, project man-agers, and technical specialists from Germanywho interact with Chinese colleagues or workin China. What should a traveler bring along toChina? “Lots of curiosity, a bit of uncertainty tokeep you on your toes — and the ShanghaiTaxi Guide iPhone app to avoid getting lost inthe city,” says Tang with a wink.

Participants in his courses aren’t given acatalogue of facts to be doggedly memorized;instead, they are taught social skills with a spe-cific cultural flavor. Understanding and beingunderstood, facial expressions, gestures, bodylanguage, and emotions are important. Howshould I behave in conversations and conflictsituations, give presentations, and engage innegotiations when I’m far from home? —those are the kinds of question participantswant answered.

Tang, the Asia expert, believes his job is toprovide participants with some basic orienta-

tion by explaining, for example, how historyand social change have shaped Chinese think-ing. Each of the workshops, which last threedays on average, begins with an overview ofChinese culture and history, which Tang clever-ly combines with information about importantindustrial locations in China.

Reading Gestures Correctly. Even MirnaHarms, a young German-Bosnian engineer, isnow listening avidly to the instructor’s expertlectures. The chief engineer of a China projectat Siemens Industry Rail Automation in Braun-schweig, she has been working daily with col-leagues from Siemens Ltd. China since Novem-ber 2009.

Together with China Railway Signal & Com-munication Corp., Siemens is equipping thefirst subway system in the metropolis ofChongqing, which, with a population of 30million, may be the world’s biggest city. Thenew subway line is expected to significantly re-lieve traffic congestion in the city. Siemens is

supplying the subway’s switch tower, traincontrol, and operation control technologies.The first 14 stations will go into operation inthe summer of 2011. Harms was initially un-sure whether the seminar would help her, asshe felt she already knew the country and itspeople since she had made several trips to Chi-na. But now she says she feels more confidentabout reading Chinese gestures. “It’s really in-teresting to see which situations I intuitively in-terpreted correctly or incorrectly,” she says.

Harms has already learned one thing. Shewould often plan something on the phonewith her Chinese colleagues and then find outthe work wasn’t finished by the agreed time. “Ifa German colleague doesn’t check up on a pro-ject’s progress, to the Chinese that means thework isn’t important, so it slides down on thelist of priorities,” Tang explains. This is partly

In China, unlike the U.S., one shouldtalk about problems indirectly and avoid going on the offensive.

Pictures of the Future | Spring 2011 5756 Pictures of the Future | Spring 2011

Research without Borders | Innovation in Emerging Markets

Working in international networks, Siemens researchers and developers are coming up with inexpensive yet sophisticated entry-level products. These products have what it takes to become market leaders, and not just in emerging economies.

New Markets in Brazil. International innova-tion processes can be used to tap into newmarket segments in Brazil too, according toSiemens engineer Thiago Pistore. He coordi-nated a Brazilian-German development teamthat made design changes to a steam turbineconceived for the European market and arrivedat the SST-300, a turbineideal for use in Braziliansugar mills.

“We had to make surethat the whole turbinecould be manufacturedin Brazil. To do that, wehad to learn to make sac-rifices here and there,” says Pistore. “The result-ing turbine is a bit less flexible and slightly lessefficient than the model it was based on. Buton the other hand, at the time of market entryit was priced at approximately thirty percentless.” (see Pictures of the Future, Spring 2009,p. 88). The modified turbine is now being soldnot only in Brazil, but in other Latin Americancountries as well.

This success was made possible thanks toexcellent cooperation between Siemens engi-neers in Brazil and their colleagues in Ger-many, who passed on their know-how. Thisknowledge transfer has helped the Braziliansto perform more of the engineering them-selves, such as complex calculations of rotordynamics. But that doesn’t mean that Germanengineers are going to have to look for newjobs any time soon. For instance, according toDr. Detlef Haje, principal engineer at a majorsteam turbine plant in Görlitz, Germany, “Theplant is about products that are engineered toorder. In contrast, our colleagues in marketssuch as Brazil and India specialize in standard-ized solutions for emerging countries — solu-tions, in other words, that can be manufac-tured with simple processes.”

A different example, the Trainguard MTtrain control system, shows that the new mar-kets being opened up with S.M.A.R.T. productsare not only in emerging economies. In order

There is a flicker, and yet again the lights goout on Hosur Road. Here at the research

site of Siemens Corporate Technology (CT) inBangalore, the power fluctuations of the elec-trical grid lead to regular blackouts. When thelights go on again after a few seconds, Dr. Zubin Varghese of Siemens CT explains thecauses of the blackouts. “India’s populationand economic output are growing at a breath-taking pace. More people, more prosperity,more air-conditioning systems. The expansionof the power grids simply cannot keep up withthis pace. When there is an overload, the net-works simply collapse,” he says.

Varghese is responsible for the develop-ment of sustainable technologies for emergingmarkets at CT in India. He and his team areworking on solutions that help raise the stan-dard of living over the long term and in afford-able ways for a billion Indians — and people inemerging economies around the world. It is of-ten the case that the solutions used in industri-alized nations are too expensive and do not ad-equately meet the needs of emerging markets.

Products Set to Sizzle

The price of a product is the key factor, accord-ing to Varghese. “When a product developerhere sees a car, the first thing he thinks aboutis how he can manage that at one tenth theprice,” says Varghese. “There are then twoways to go. You can build a vehicle with threewheels and no engine,” he says jokingly. “Oryou consider very carefully what the customerin our market actually wants and can pay for —and then develop according to these specificrequirements. The result could be a Tata Nano,for example.” More and more Indians are tak-ing a fancy to the Nano, which is consideredthe cheapest car in the world. It has become asymbol for extremely inexpensive products —from emerging markets for emerging markets.

High Tech, Low Cost. Siemens does not buildautomobiles, of course, but it does build manyother “smart” products around the world. Inthis context, “S.M.A.R.T.” stands for “Simple,”“Maintenance friendly,” “Affordable,” “Reli-able,” and “Timely to market.” In other words,these are entry-level products that are perfect-

ly tailored to the needs of certain market seg-ments (see Pictures of the Future, Spring 2009,pp. 72-105).

For example, Varghese’s team has devel-oped a low-cost, energy-saving waste watertreatment method. In India, this is quite a bigchallenge. The country produces roughly 29billion liters of waste water every day, of whichonly one quarter is treated. In addition, con-ventional treatment plants consume lots of en-ergy, because oxygen has to be pumped incontinually.

With this in mind, Siemens researchers inBangalore have built a bioreactor in which cer-tain algae and bacteria enter into a symbioticrelationship. While the bacteria generate CO2

that the algae need for photosynthesis, the al-gae emit oxygen, which is in turn required bythe bacteria for their growth. It is a perfect cy-cle — and 60 percent less energy-intensivethan conventional methods. This developmenthas kindled the curiosity of Siemens re-searchers in Germany, as similar processescould be used to fix CO2 from fossil-fuel power

plants and convert it to biomass in algae, per-haps even on a large scale one day.

“Increasingly, engineers from India, China,Brazil, Europe and the U.S. work together in in-ternational teams in which the members con-tribute what they are best at,” says Dr. Uwe Lin-nert, who heads the Sensor Systems GlobalTechnology Field at CT in Erlangen, Germany.Linnert views the research and developmentcenter in Bangalore as an integration and con-sulting center for the region — a place that,with its deep understanding of the local mar-ket, helps turn the results of research and de-velopment into innovative products.

Another result of the international coopera-tion between Varghese’s team and Siemenscolleagues in Germany is the Fetal Heart Moni-tor (FHM), a device that can monitor the heartrate of fetuses in the womb. While ultrasoundtechnology is often used for this in advancednations — where the machines can cost sever-al thousand USD — the Fetal Heart Monitor

uses special microphones instead. The result-ing device costs significantly less than ultra-sound. The idea was conceived and developedinto a product in India. The team led by Lin-nert, which is based in Germany, helped withthe development of the special microphones.“The cutting-edge research takes place wherethe cutting-edge researchers are located —which is still usually the established industrial-ized nations,” Linnert says. “But product devel-opment is increasingly taking place wherethere are fast-growing markets — in emergingeconomies, in other words,” he adds.

Other examples of successful German-Indi-an collaborative projects have included workon optical sensors and camera technology forthe Indian market. These technologies are nowhelping Indian cookie factories to greatly in-crease their quality and efficiency by identify-ing imperfectly-baked cookies in a fraction of asecond (see Pictures of the Future, Spring2009, p. 85).

to increase train throughput and therefore ca-pacity on heavily traveled subway routes, thecontrol centers need information about exactlywhere trains are located at any particular time.One possibility is to install cables. The inexpen-sive alternative, however, is wireless technolo-gy. In this case, trains report their position via a

wireless signal to receiver stations. “We’re us-ing mostly off-the-shelf components,” saysMattias Lampe of Siemens CT China. Thatmeans parts and wireless LAN equipment thatyou can buy in a normal electronics shop, suchas radio modules or antennas. The actual chal-lenge is to assemble these components into anintegrated solution that is not only inexpensivebut also reliable and safe. Siemens engineers

“A little less flexible, a little less efficient — and 30 percent cheaper.”

In developing economies, top technology and

in-depth knowledge of local needs are leading the

way in power engineering (large photo), wastewater

treatment (p. 57, left) and healthcare (right).

Pictures of the Future | Spring 2011 5958 Pictures of the Future | Spring 2011

and external partners from China, France andDenmark overcame this challenge by workingin an international team. In subway tunnels inthe Chinese cities of Beijing, Nanjing,Guangzhou, and Chongqing, a Siemens wire-less solution helped reduce the interval be-tween subway trains from three minutes tohalf that time. The system is now being usednot only in Chinese cities, but also in Stock-holm and Istanbul. Additional orders havecome in from Copenhagen and Helsinki.

One Third Cheaper. These examples illus-trate that S.M.A.R.T. products are finding theirway into industrialized countries. At the sametime, however, markets are maturing inemerging economies. As customers in suchcountries gain experience with entry-levelproducts, they begin to want more sophisticat-ed equipment. A Nano can, for example, make

Research without Borders | Chinese Medicine

Doctors plan to combine theadvantages of traditional Chinese medicine with thoseof Western science. To keepmedical technology at theforefront of these changes,Siemens is working with Chinese partners to developnew treatment methods.

When Worlds Combine

What is good medicine? Since humans be-gan to analyze their bodily functions

thousands of years ago the answer has usuallybeen: “medicine that heals.” Today, medicinehas become a truly global science, in which re-searchers systematically seek to compare vari-ous medical traditions with one another. Oneof the most intriguing fields aims to combineWestern medicine and traditional Chinesemedicine (TCM) — two schools that couldn’tbe more different, yet may also contain awealth of new knowledge for one another.

“Our efforts to combine both traditions willpresent new challenges for medical technolo-gy,” says Shen Hong, who is in charge ofStrategic Business Development at SiemensCorporate Technology (CT) in Beijing. “Foryears, Siemens Corporate Technology Chinahas been looking at ways of using moderntechnology in conjunction with TCM.” (see Pic-tures of the Future, Spring 2009, p. 81).

Following years of research conducted inconjunction with leading Chinese universities,CT is now developing the first workstation fortraditional Chinese medicine. In the future,this could provide TCM doctors with the samekind of computer-based support that doctors

using Western medicine have long enjoyed. Adatabase enables a quick description of symp-toms. At the click of a mouse, users can enteracupuncture points on a 3-D depiction of thehuman body or put together herbal mixtures.“TCM doctors have been asking for such a sys-tem for years,” says Shen. “This planned systemis intended to provide them with a solid newfoundation for their work and to offer a plat-form to collect evidence of TCM’s effectivenessin diagnosis and treatment.”

This advance is urgently needed. Althoughmore than 500,000 doctors practice TCM inover 3,000 hospitals throughout China, theirtradition, which goes back thousands of years,is still regarded as unscientific in the West. In-deed, Western medical technology has notbeen able to incorporate many of TCM’s princi-ples and treatment methods. Doctors still can’tagree on how acupuncture actually works,even though the treatment has been recog-nized widely outside of China. Western-orient-ed medical experts point out that the resultsare not reproducible. What may represent afundamental problem for these doctors is re-garded as a strength by Chinese experts, whorealize that methods that work on one patient

might not be effective on another. This fact isnot new to Western scientists because it ap-plies to many medicines, but it doesn’t make iteasier to establish cause and effect when itcomes to TCM. An additional challenge lies inthe lack of basic data. Chinese doctors observea wide spectrum of symptoms, but so far therehas been no tradition of documenting these inas much detail as is done in the West.

Four Phases. “Before we can promote TCM inthe western world, we need to answer somevery fundamental questions,” says Shen. “Thisoffers us an opportunity to go back and ques-tion our basic assumptions.” As a rule, medicaltreatments can be divided into four phases: adiagnosis is followed by a treatment and thenaftercare. The fourth phase is prevention —and that’s precisely where the strengths of Chi-nese medicine lie. In TCM there is a muchstronger emphasis than in Western medicineon identifying — at an early stage — whichfunctions have been thrown out of balance.Whereas Western doctors are mostly con-cerned with healing sick patients, Chinese doc-tors concentrate mainly on preventing healthyindividuals from falling ill in the first place.

This emphasis on prevention leads to lessmoney being spent on medical treatments. Ac-cording to the World Health Organization(WHO), only five percent of people are com-pletely healthy — but conversely, only 20 per-cent are truly sick. Three out of four people areclassified as being “unhealthy.” People in this“sub-health” category are neither completelyhealthy nor seriously ill, but suffer from prob-lems such as tiredness, headaches, dizziness orirritability. “Biochemically speaking, these peo-ple seem to be fine,” says Shen. “Western doc-tors wouldn’t find anything wrong with them.”Nevertheless, these common problems cancause a huge decline in people’s performanceand quality of life, and they can be warningsigns of more serious illnesses to come, suchas heart disease or diabetes.

To combat these dangers, Siemens hasteamed up with Chinese medical experts to de-velop a unique joint research project. At South-ern Medical University in Guangzhou in south-ern China, Western and Chinese scientists havebeen examining “unhealthy people” for years.Together with Siemens, they want to discoverhow Western and Chinese medicine can bene-fit from each other. “The study will help us de-velop medical technology to diagnose andtreat sub-health problems,” says Arding Hsu,head of CT China. “Our goal is to provide TCMwith a better scientific foundation so that Chi-nese medicine can receive greater internation-al recognition.”

In coming years, TCM doctors will be able torecord detailed information about each diag-nosis and the course of specific diseases on anIT platform that was developed for this pur-pose by Siemens. This new technology will en-able scientists to build what will probably bethe largest database for TCM-related knowl-edge in the world.

When the data needs to be evaluated, spe-cially-developed algorithms will help identifyspecific patterns of function and effect. SaysHu Wei, Vice President of Southern MedicalUniversity, “This will not only help to advanceresearch, but will also be a very good basis forour training programs.” In a further step, med-ical devices will be developed later on thatcomply with the standards of both Westernand Chinese medicine.

The project will initially run for five yearsand is the first of its kind between a Chineseresearch institution and an internationalhealth technology company. In the future, theproject will be expanded to include more part-ners. “This could become a key project for all ofthe research being done in this field,” saysShen. Scientists involved in the project seem tohave already agreed on one point: that goodmedicine not only heals but also prevents dis-eases in the first place. Bernhard Bartsch

people desire the luxury features of a premiumcar. The waterproof cell phones with flash-lights that conquered the Indian mass marketseveral years ago are now being replaced inlarge cities by more stylish devices. One exam-ple of a S.M.A.R.T. product that can be success-ful in both markets is the Multix Select DR digi-tal X-ray machine. Its price is around one thirdbelow comparable previous digital X-ray prod-ucts from Siemens — a high-tech product atlow-cost prices, affordable also for smaller hos-pitals and private practices.

Particularly high demand is expected forthis machine in emerging economies, inwhich only analog machines have been af-fordable in this market segment until now.China, for example, wants to introduce end-to-end digital processes for imaging proce-dures in provincial hospitals in order to accel-erate diagnoses and make such processesmore secure. But the Multix Select DR will al-most certainly be used increasingly in Europeand other developed markets as well — for ex-ample, as a secondary device, to make morestandard examinations possible.

The software for Multix Select DR was de-veloped using platforms established in Ger-many and Spain. Siemens engineers in Goaconcentrated on the mechanics, such as thedesign of the examination table. Project man-agement and systems integration, in turn,were handled in China.

All in all, there are ten man-years of devel-opment time invested in this product. “Devel-opment costs, local product management, andlocal added value play a major role in deter-mining market price,” says Bernd Ohnesorge,who heads the radiography products businessunit at Siemens Healthcare.

Siemens’ Multix Select DR is being manu-factured in Shanghai, which means that sup-pliers are charging low Chinese prices. Howev-er, in the case of relatively cheap machines,transportation costs make up a larger percent-age of the total price. One day, therefore, theMultix Select DR may also be produced in oth-er places where there is large demand, such asin Brazil.

As the world grows closer together and be-comes more complex, simple, functional, en-try-level solutions and S.M.A.R.T. products willincreasingly be used in addition to high-endmachines — in emerging markets as well as in-dustrialized countries. Companies that canserve both segments will have the greatest op-portunities in this diverse market, which is atonce global and local. One approach is that be-ing taken by Siemens. That approach calls forputting the best heads together and settingthem to work on innovations as a global teamso that, hopefully, bright ideas will eventuallyreplace blackouts. Andreas Kleinschmidt

Acupotomy and foot zones (below right) play

an important role in traditional Chinese medicine.

The next step is to use IT support to systemize

the knowledge of healing.

Camera systems immediately recognize imperfect

cashew nuts (top). X-ray machines from India

(middle) and China (bottom) are high-tech prod-

ucts at low prices.

Pictures of the Future | Spring 2011 6160 Pictures of the Future | Spring 2011

Charles Coushaine, 50, has played a decisive

role in turning light emitting diodes (LEDs) into

a household phenomena. He has even come up with

an LED light for poorly illuminated showers that

gets its power from water flow.

Research without Borders | LEDs

Charles Coushaine has been inventing innovative applications for halogen lamps and light emitting diodes for almost two decades.

Where do ideas come from? That’s agood question,” says inventor Charlie

Coushaine in his office at his home in Rindge,New Hampshire. Spread out in front of him arethumb-sized halogen bulbs for car headlights,light- emitting diode (LED) lamps for cars, andLEDs for key chains, for the kitchen, and evenfor the shower.

“You definitely have to have an open mindfor new ideas,” says Coushaine. But for him,this is obviously not a problem. He’s one of themost productive inventors at Osram Sylvania, aDanvers, Massachusetts-based subsidiary ofOsram, the German manufacturer of lightingproducts. For almost twenty years, first at thecompany’s site in Hillsboro, New Hampshire,and later in Massachusetts, he has developed

halogen lamps and LED bulbs for vehicles andfor domestic use. Among his creations are thefirst standardized halogen lamp for car head-lights and a turbine-powered light that can beused in the shower.

Coushaine majored in mechanical engi-neering at Northeastern University in Boston inthe 1980s. After receiving his degree, he firstworked for a company that focused on au-tomation technology. In 1988 he joined Sylva-nia, which was acquired by Siemens subsidiaryOsram in 1993. There, his first assignment wasto design high-speed automated equipmentfor putting light bulbs together.

But in 1993 the company was looking forvolunteers to design a new mechanism foraiming automobile headlights. Coushaine an-

swered the call — not because he was nolonger interested in automation technology,but because he felt compelled to try some-thing new. “Every now and then you have totake some risks,” he believes.

The greatest success that resulted from thiscareer change so far is probably the develop-ment of Joule, an LED taillight system — andthe world’s first standardized LED system forthe automotive industry. Coushaine worked to-gether with a team to develop this highly suc-cessful system. Its individual components — areflective cavity, a semiconductor crystal, wirebonds, a leadframe, and a socket — are config-ured for maximum efficiency and output. “Thissystematic approach was the greatest innova-tion for Joule,” says Coushaine.

The Idea Generator

Like all LEDs, the Joule system produces avery intense beam, lights up instantly, has longlife, and saves power. But because it was alsostandardized in line with the “plug and play”principle, it could be employed in a wide rangeof car models. Today the second generation ofJoule taillights, which provide more luminosityin smaller bulbs, is in large-scale production.They are being used in a number of automo-tive models all over the world, including theFord Mustang and models from Audi, BMW,and Volkswagen. In 2007 Coushaine and histeam received the Osram Innovation Award forJoule.

Coushaine’s expertise in the LED field waswell known within the company even beforehe received the award. A couple of years be-fore the completion of the Joule project, a col-league from the marketing department askedhim whether he could design a self-adhesiveLED lamp that customers could attach at anyspot they wished in a car’s interior. Customersurveys had shown a potential market for sucha device. Coushaine said yes, even though heactually had no time to do an additional proj-

would have to switch gears to the design anddevelopment of LED products for the con-sumer market. “As a result of this change, Inow work for only two or three months onmost projects. It’s much more playful — I canlet off steam creatively,” he says.

He usually begins by designing a model onhis computer — often at home — and thendiscusses it with his team.The draft is then sentalong with detailed func-tional specifications tocontractors in China, whobuild the device and ofteninclude changes to theoriginal design. “That’s notsurprising. They are manufacturing experts,and they regularly come up with designchanges, which we are open to as long as thespecified functionality does not change. Theyare even listed as co-authors on some patents,“Coushaine says.

With his creativity running freely,Coushaine has come up with some surprisingsolutions, such as a table runner with LED

patents and 59 protective rights families. Andthe ideas keep coming — for example, for anLED lamp with an integrated speaker that canwirelessly receive music like an MP3 player.“Retail chains have already expressed interest— you could, for example, play different musicin men’s and women’s dressing rooms,” hesays. Other ideas include battery-operated

wind chimes lit up with LEDs and a device thatsterilizes cutting boards with ultraviolet light.

Where do all these ideas come from? “Theycome from everywhere,” Coushaine, who wasnamed a 2010 “Siemens Inventor of the Year,”says with a smile. “They are formed duringconversations at the dinner table, in the bath-room, during informal chats with colleagues —and of course they also come from supervisors

ect. Nonetheless, he managed to design thelamp on weekends. His homemade conceptdesign became the “Dot-It,” a small round lightthat can be turned on and off by briefly press-ing its surface. Millions of units have been soldworldwide to date. Coushaine worked on it forseveral years parallel to the Joule project. “I’malways working on several projects at the sametime,” he says. In 2006 he was granted the Os-ram Star Award, primarily for his clever design,for which he holds a patent

Creative Brainstorming. After its successwith “Dot-It,” Osram Sylvania created the “NewVentures Group,” which designs lighting prod-ucts for residential use, and asked Coushaineto join. For Coushaine, this meant that he

lighting, folding LED flashlights, and an LEDlamp integrated into a shower head. The latterwas a response to the fact that in many homesthe shower area is insufficiently lit.Coushaine’s solution produces electricity bymeans of a tiny generator driven by a turbine.The turbine in turn is driven by water flow,which is hardly impacted by this function.

An LED Lamp with a Loudspeaker. In thisfashion, Coushaine has come up with 159 in-ventions so far and has been awarded 184

and customer surveys. But nothing works ifyou don’t have the courage to try somethingnew.“

Even when Coushaine goes hiking, he gen-erates new ideas — and he goes hiking often.Coushaine has a passion for Geocaching, akind of GPS-guided treasure hunt that is opento people of all ages, in which various objectsare hidden and their coordinates are publishedon the Internet. But merely finding the hidingplace is not enough. Once you’re there, youhave to find the little treasure chest itself —which may be concealed in a tree or under abridge. “We’ve hidden a box close to our houseas well. The theme of the box, which is filledwith small items, is of course ‘light,’”Coushaine confides. Hubertus Breuer

Charles Coushaine has 184 individual patents to his name — andthe ideas keep on coming.

Pictures of the Future | Spring 2011 6362 Pictures of the Future | Spring 2011

Research without Borders | Electromobility

Dr. Heike Barlag coordinates international electric mobility research projects at Siemens Energy.

The EU’s “Green Emotion” project is very im-portant to physical chemist Heike Barlag.

She enthusiastically explains how the projectwill standardize electric mobility in Europe. Itsmembers intend to establish a system that willallow electric vehicles in Europe to rechargetheir batteries across the whole continentthanks to standardized voltages, power sock-ets, and software. After a while, Barlag revealsthat she is actually the chief coordinator of thisextensive undertaking, which is being fundedby the EU as part of the seventh ResearchFramework Programme. Barlag will work with42 project partners from 12 countries over thenext four years and manage the EU’s €24 mil-lion funding contribution. Siemens is thelargest project partner — and the company hasestablished an interdisciplinary team that isparticipating in seven of the project’s 11 workpackages, which address guidelines for charg-

ing stations, organizing demonstration proj-ects in several model regions, and developinginfrastructure.

Barlag’s management assignment has tak-en her away from her favorite place — her re-search laboratory. She loves to assemble labequipment and test rigs. “I’ve always been in-terested in science and technology,” she says.When Barlag was just 12, she took apart thehub gears on her Dutch bicycle — and then re-assembled the complex gearbox with little out-side help. But these days she hardly has anytime to pick up a screwdriver herself. In June2010 she left her research unit at Siemens Cor-porate Technology (CT) to become a seniorproject manager at Siemens Energy Sector inFürth near Nuremberg.

She now manages several publicly fundedelectric vehicle charging infrastructure proj-ects. She continues to work closely with the CT

Plugging into Motivation

Research without Borders | Image Processing

Visvanathan Ramesh has worked for over twenty years on the science of building computervision systems. In the process, he has made rail stations and airports safer.

Visvanathan Ramesh, 48, sits in a diningroom that is reminiscent of a rustic Ger-

man restaurant at a university club in midtownManhattan. He’s thinking about a place faraway: Mumbai (then Bombay), where, in1984, he was working as a trainee atLarsen&Toubro, an Indian technology compa-ny founded by two Danes. “Young employeesworked for six weeks each in different depart-ments,” he recalls of the job. “As a conse-quence one could not get really involved any-where. So I had plenty of time on my hands —and I read a lot in the company’s research li-brary.”

This not only helped him pass the time butalso changed his future — thanks to two arti-cles he read. One was an article in ScientificAmerican magazine about the neurophysiolo-gy of vision and how evolving research proj-ects might one day help to develop computer

vision. The other article was a story aboutmedical imaging in the journal Proceedings ofthe IEEE. “Because of those articles, I immedi-ately knew that vision processing was what Iwanted to do going forward,” Ramesh says. Asa result, he decided to actively pursue his ap-plication for a degree inelectrical engineering inthe United States.

When Ramesh is ex-plaining his career, he of-ten refers to his mother’sdetermination, courage,and will to work hard. Butit was not only this kind of persistence thatshaped his path. He also felt a thirst for knowl-edge — and that brought him to a country thatat first was very foreign to him. “There werequite a few cultural differences,” he recalls.“Simple things could become difficult. For ex-

ample, my visa for the United States said that Ihad until 1-3-1985 to enter the country — andI figured that meant the first of March. But theAmerican notation puts the month before theday. Because of this, I nearly missed my oppor-tunity to go.”

Ramesh made his dream, which was bornin a Mumbai library, a reality. He attended Vir-ginia Tech in southwestern Virginia. He re-ceived his PhD from the University of Washing-ton in Seattle, and right afterwards, in 1995,he was offered a job as a research scientist

Toward Systems that See What’s Important

working on automated image processing atSiemens Corporate Research in Princeton, NewJersey. Only a few years later he was promotedand became head of the Real-Time Vision andModeling department. And his managementhas led to success. When Ramesh arrived, thedepartment had 30 employees — today thereare roughly 150, a large number of them work-ing on medical imaging.

Recognizing Danger. In recent years,Ramesh and his team have created technolo-gies for automatic image processing that arethe basis for monitoring systems in subwayand train stations, at airports, and in otherpublic spaces. They are also used for cargo andparcel screening. In addition, the majority ofdriver assistance systems would not be possi-ble without this kind of technology. For exam-ple, it can automatically search images forsigns of danger — whether a suitcase at an air-port gate appears to be unattended or burglarsare trying to break into a house.

Ramesh has developed a flexible system ar-chitecture that can be adapted to differentvideo analysis applications. What does a videosystem need in order to monitor a subway sys-tem? How do light conditions change? Whatdifficulties are involved in crowd surveillance?“It’s easy to collect vast amounts of image in-formation, but the trick is to integrate this dataand interpret it correctly. One important aspectof this is to know what is important and whatcan be ignored,” he says. Ramesh has been de-vising statistical models of these influences fora large number of scenarios in recent years. Heis responsible for over 120 inventions, 37 ofwhich have been granted patents.

The teams Ramesh works with are locatedall over the globe — in Bangalore, Munich,Graz, and other locations. “Everyone bringstheir own perspective to the table,” he says.“whether it’s a methodical German, a Chineseteam player or an entrepreneurial American. Insuch groups, everyone benefits from thestrengths of the others — assuming that one isopen to these differences. And for that reason,it’s important to have a certain sensitivity forother cultures.”

Ramesh’s global research agenda will cer-tainly continue in the coming years — thistime in the interdisciplinary field of cognitivesystems. Most recently, Ramesh has beenworking with a group of German colleagues inthe area of artificial intelligence, specifically ondiscovering how recent discoveries in brain re-search can be applied to intelligent vision sys-tems — a quarter of a century after he read anarticle in Scientific American on the same sub-ject. Hubertus Breuer

“It’s easy to collect image informa-tion, but the trick is to integrate thisdata and interpret it correctly.”

Pictures of the Future | Spring 2011 6564 Pictures of the Future | Spring 2011

Research without Borders | Steelmaking

For over 50 years, Michael Shore has been advancing rolling mill technology.

headquarters in Massachusetts — and even if Isent an idea to the U.S. it might take threeweeks until it was approved. But we often did-n’t have that much time on site. Things had tohappen faster,” he says.

One day in the early 1960s he faced exactlythis problem at a steel mill in Germany. “Therewere a lot of roll breakages in the early No-Twist mills,” he explains. “Together with thecustomer, we developed a hydraulic rollmounting device that prevented roll break-ages.” The customer went on to patent the de-vice, and the idea was so successful that Mor-gan purchased the patent shortly thereafter.

A Lifetime of Expertise. Shore got to knowdifferent management cultures in Europe,southeast Asia, and South America. But thatdidn’t change his own approach. “I have alwayswanted to be able to perform every single pro-cedure on a machine myself if I need to. And Iapproach everyone, from the common workerto the factory owner, with the same respect.”

Since the late 1960s, Morgan’s manage-ment had tried in vain to persuade him tomove to the U.S. Shore lived in an early 18th-century cottage in Cheshire, had a huge modelrailway in his house, and traveled around theworld 300 days per year. “I was very happywith my life,” he recalls. But in 1988 his son,

On a Roll Worldwide

who had moved to Worcester to work in thesales department at Morgan — the third gen-eration of Shores in the rolling mill industry —convinced him otherwise. In addition, as Shorerecalls with a laugh, “My wife figured that aftera move to the U.S. I’d only travel about 180days a year.” And since she wanted to go, heacquiesced.

As chief engineer at Morgan, he introducedimportant innovations to rolling mills. His maingoal was always to increase speed without de-creasing quality. He precisely coordinated theexact arrangement of thousands of plant com-ponents and introduced sophisticated automa-tion systems and entirely new rolling mill sys-tems.

Particularly successful was his invention ofthe Morgan Reducing/Sizing Mill, which heconceived in the early 1990s. It increases theproduction of all rod sizes by as much as60  percent because it boosts efficiency andworks very precisely. It also allows rollingprocesses to have a simplified rolling pass se-quence and allows rods to be rolled at very lowtemperatures. As a result, the rods’ surfacesare so smooth that several steps commonly in-cluded in the finishing process, such as anneal-ing and peeling, are eliminated. Today morethan 60 machines of this design have been in-stalled worldwide.

Shore also improved the rolling processwith many other inventions — for example,the Morshor system. “The idea came to mewhile I was shoveling snow,” he remembers.The system substantially boosts the productionof small-diameter rods. The smaller the diame-ter of the rods, the higher the rolling speed,but the lower the tonnage rate. As a result, arolling mill with a capacity of 150 tons perhour produces only half that amount whenrolling small sizes. Shore came up with a solu-tion in the form of two drums that serve as in-termediate storage sites downstream of the in-termediate rolling mill and feed two separatefinishing lines at 75 tons per hour, thus allow-ing a mill to reach its maximum capacity.

“I’m very lucky to have been able to work onrolling mills for 56 years,” says Shore. “Duringthis time I’ve contributed to many changes inthe industry. The machines have becomefaster and more accurate, and computer con-trol has become increasingly important.” Formany of these developments, he finds that be-ing part of Siemens was very helpful. “We cantap into a lot of the company’s expertise in au-tomation technology,” he says. But in spite ofall this progress, he is concerned that notenough young people are excited about ca-reers in design engineering. “They should real-ize that one can be wonderfully creative in thistype of career in many ways, just as I was,” saysShore. Hubertus Breuer

researchers who are developing the chargingunits for electric vehicle power stations. Theobjective here is electromagnetic inductioncharging, which uses direct current rather thanalternating current — and could reduce charg-ing times to just a few minutes. Barlag’s workrequires organizational talent and the ability toskillfully direct very diverse teams. Throughher projects she works closely with coworkersin Germany and Denmark, researchers at uni-versities, developers in the automotive indus-try, and engineers at energy supply compa-nies. “Green Emotion” is by far the biggestproject Barlag is involved in at the moment.

Different Perspectives. Heike Barlag, who is41, respects her new assignment as a projectcoordinator. “I almost feel a little too young forit,” she jokes. But she looks forward to the chal-lenge, and she knows exactly what she needsto do to make complex projects a success. “Themost important thing is communication, ofcourse,” she explains. An intense exchange ofideas and information is crucial, especially atthe beginning, in order tomake sure the results fittogether at the end. Barlagdescribes her strategy asfollows: “You have to makesure everyone involved re-ally understands whatthey’re supposed to do.”That’s why she continually checks with partici-pants to make sure no misunderstandings re-main. She is very good at getting right to theheart of things, and has never had any lan-guage difficulties with her European partnersbecause “anyone participating in an EU projectspeaks English.”

As a coordinator, Barlag also relies on herown extensive technical knowledge. She stud-ied chemistry at the University of Münster andspecialized in electrochemistry when sheworked on her PhD. She also knows a lot aboutprogramming. Her first job when she startedworking at Siemens CT in Erlangen in 2001was to develop fuel cells. “That was really basicresearch — I built electrodes, put in compo-nent production orders, and tested fuel cells inthe lab,” she recalls. In 2004 she moved to theBiosensor unit. She was eventually promotedto project manager there, and this enabled herto gain initial experience in leading interdisci-plinary groups, which now helps her to over-come typical barriers. “Physicists, chemists, bi-ologists, and engineers often have differentperspectives on things,” she says. Even an ele-mentary concept like electrical voltage canmean something different to an electro-chemist than it does to an electrical engineer,as Barlag soon found out. “I wanted to under-stand how engineers think,” she explains. “So I

mills. After receiving his diploma, he publisheda report on rolling mill technology that woundup on the desks of managers at Americanrolling mill manufacturer Morgan, which hadan office in Manchester. The company, a globalsupplier of wire rod rolling mill equipment, ap-proached him about a job.

At Morgan, Shore began study the weak-nesses of new mills on site during setup andoperation. This launched him into helping toinstall rolling mills in many countries — hespent a year in Germany, then in Spain, andlater worked in Brazil, India, Japan, and Korea.He was, so to speak, on a roll worldwide. Todayhe speaks Spanish and German fluently.

It didn’t take long for the Shore to offer nu-merous suggestions for improvements. In oneinstance, he reduced the number of wrenchesneeded for maintenance from 20 to three. In1967 he recommended that the companybuild a Stelmor conveyor with steps to regulateits speed. “It was such a good idea that it wentinto every mill,” he says. Shore calls 61 inven-tions his own, and today more than 600patents bear his name worldwide. In 2010,along with 11 other innovators from Siemens,he was named an “Inventor of the Year.”

But it was not always easy for Shore tomake major changes in the company. “I wasclose to the bottom of the hierarchy, far from

Surrounded by a collection of pictures oftrains, horses, and boats, Michael Shore is

sitting in his office at Siemens VAI in Worces-ter, Massachusetts, a world leader in the fieldof rolling mill technology and a Siemens busi-ness since its acquisition of Morgan in 2008.VAI has branches in China, Brazil, India, andGreat Britain. An electric pencil sharpener sitson the desk next to the Shore. “A remnant ofthe past. Today I mostly use mechanical pen-cils, and all design happens on the computer.But that doesn’t prevent me from sketchingideas with a pencil,” he says. On the wall is aposter illustrating two drums in a wire rollingmill, the so-called “Morshor system,” Shore’slatest invention, which was named in his hon-or. It is being tested in a plant in Brazil.

Shore was born in Yorkshire, England, in1937 and has been familiar with steel millssince boyhood, as his father worked in one. Ashe approached his graduation from a tradeschool, he had a choice between coal miningand steel rolling mills, his home region’s twodominant industries at the time. He opted forthe steel mills and became a mechanical engi-neer for metallurgy at the British Iron & SteelResearch Association (BISRA).

Curious and ambitious by nature, Shore be-gan to study mechanical engineering whileworking for BISRA. His focus was on rolling

had to learn the language of electrical engi-neering, so to speak.”

As a woman, Barlag has often felt a bit exot-ic throughout her career. However, she doesn’tbelieve her gender has been a disadvantage —even though she did encounter some preju-dices in the beginning. In fact, her father, him-self an engineer, wasn’t too pleased with herchoice of profession, and her dissertation advi-sor predicted that all of his female studentswould end up working in libraries. “Here atSiemens, it doesn’t matter whether you’re aman or a woman or where you come from,”Barlag says. Sometimes, however, someonewill call her office and think she’s a secretaryrather than the project manager — but Barlagdoesn’t take it personally. “People still have toget used to women in management positions,”she says.

Barlag’s humor and her open and uncompli-cated demeanor definitely contribute to thesuccess of her projects. And, as she haslearned, when working in internationalgroups, it’s also important to show respect for

the professional knowledge of your partners,says Barlag. Ideally, collaboration across bor-ders, disciplines, and companies should be avery enriching experience. “If you can combinethe skills and knowledge of everyone involved,you’ll get better results than if each personworks alone,” she says.

Barlag believes research without borderswill become more and more important in thefuture. “We make our money mostly with high-tech products whose development is so com-plex that companies can no longer do it bythemselves,” she says. Electric mobility is thebest example of how international collabora-tion is indispensable, according to Barlag, whosays, “It’s the only way to get a market bigenough to ensure that the development workpays off.” Inner-European borders make nosense when it comes to infrastructure projects.“Nobody is going to want to stop at a borderbecause they can’t recharge their car on theother side,” Barlag says. In addition, interna-tional collaboration saves money because it al-lows uniform standards for new technologiesto be developed at a very early stage.

Barlag is also seeing European borders dis-appear in her private life. Her husband spendshalf his time in Nuremberg and the other halfin Warsaw, where he has been managing acompany for the last ten years. Ute Kehse

“I wanted to understand how engi-neers think. So I had to learn the language of electrical engineering.”

Pictures of the Future | Spring 2011 6766 Pictures of the Future | Spring 2011

Research without Borders | Interview

Eugene Wong (75) isEmeritus Professor at theUniversity of California atBerkeley, where he servedas Chair of the Depart-ment of Electrical Engi-neering and ComputerSciences from 1985–1989.His distinguished careerincludes contributions toacademia, public serviceand business. From 1990-1993 he was the Associ-ate Director of the Officeof Science and Technolo-gy Policy, under George H.W. Bush. He was a co-founder of Ingres Corp., apioneering database com-pany, and has participat-ed in entrepreneurial ac-tivities in the U.S. and inAsia. Prof. Wong is amember of the NationalAcademy of Engineeringand a Fellow of the Ameri-can Academy of Arts andSciences. He holds a PhDin Electrical Engineeringfrom Princeton University.

Has research and development become aglobalized process?Wong: The effect of globalization is more im-portant to development than to research. Tome, research is mainly an individual activitythat involves the search for knowledge andmaking path-breaking discoveries. Globaliza-tion may mean more people are doing re-search, but the gains have been in quantity,not quality. It is development, with its empha-sis on serving the individual needs of multiplemarkets, where globalization has made a ma-jor difference.

How does globalized development affectcreativity?Wong: First of all, creativity is absolutely important in the entire enterprise, but particularly so in the front end where ideas are conceived. No good research can be conducted without a high degree of creativity.Beyond that, I would say that creativity ismuch less process dependent and much more culture dependent than other elementsin R&D. Creativity varies a great deal fromcountry to country. It is not intelligence dependent. But it is very dependent on thekind of education people get. Take China, forinstance. The gene pool is very rich. But theculture, in terms of encouraging creativity, ismuch less so. It has never fostered the abilityto think out of the box.

Are you suggesting that China isn’t asmuch of a threat as people think?Wong: It is a threat from many points of view,but not in terms of originating truly novelideas or major, new industrial sectors. Chinashows no sign of being able to do this. I be-lieve that this is very much the result of cultur-al and educational factors, and these are notthings that are likely to change overnight. Fur-thermore, the Chinese have no incentive tochange. Entirely new ideas and industries rep-resent a higher risk and require a longer laten-cy period before providing results. It is easierand quicker for China and other Asianeconomies to get into the game by exploitingnew business models than by coming up withgenuinely new technologies.

Does globalization of R&D vary from sector to sector?Wong: Absolutely. There are huge differences in terms of the extent of globalization of research and development between, say, information-technology-drivenareas on the one hand, and biotechnology on the other. For instance, although wesee ever-growing digitization of information, I don’t think nature has been digitized. Those technologies that are based on thechemical, biological and physical sciences are really a different ball game. They still follow the old rules. They are still laboratorybased. They are of course aided by computing power, but they are far less prone to being globalized.

By and large, is R&D a good investment?Wong: Historically, public funding of R&D —particularly research — has produced high so-cial returns, i.e. quantifiable socio-economicbenefits, to the communities that provide theinvestment. Some of the benefits are indirect,and education stands out as a particularly im-portant case. However, it is becoming a chal-lenge for communities around the world toprovide the opportunities for well-educatedstudents to fulfill their expectations. Ultimate-ly, creating jobs that match people’s potentialmust be both a major goal for public R&Dfunding and a central focus of public policy inevery country.

There’s a lot of discussion in the U.S. nowabout whether the country is investingenough in R&D. Is it?Wong: Well, there is a big difference betweenbeing tight fisted and being cheap. Govern-ments must never forget that what they spendon R&D is taxpayers’ money. I believe that gov-ernments are right to be tough minded, but vi-sionary, in managing this money. I believe thatfunding must be focused and strategic. Re-garding the U.S. in particular, I would say thatR&D is not one of the areas we are failing in. I think the level of innovation here is very, veryhigh, but to sustain it will require continuedgenerous funding and enlightened public policy. Interview by Arthur F. Pease.

Global Research & Development:A World of Opportunities

Research without Borders | Medical Technology

Li Pan, an expert on magnetic resonance imaging, is working at Johns Hopkins University hospital on ways to make interventional procedures visible in real time.

Iam a Chinese woman working in the UnitedStates for a German technology company,”

says Li Pan, 37, as she introduces herself at theSiemens Center for Applied Medical Imaging(CAMI) located on the Johns Hopkins Universi-ty medical campus in Baltimore, Maryland.CAMI has a long list of partners for various col-laborative projects, including universities andresearch institutions in the U.S. and Europe,hospitals worldwide, and medical technologycompanies. “The center is international, thecollaborations are international, and I’m inter-national too!” she says.

Li Pan is part of a research group of about adozen scientists and engineers. Their commongoal is to explore various imaging modalities,including magnetic resonance imaging (MRI)and computer tomography (CT), to supportsurgical interventions. For example, MRI tech-nology will soon allow doctors to follow andmonitor a catheter in real time as it movesthrough the body of a patient. The team in-cludes seven scientists working at CAMI in Bal-

timore, Siemens Corporate Technology inPrinceton, and elsewhere. The group is devel-oping new MRI techniques to assist minimallyinvasive interventional procedures such asbiopsy of tissues and ablation, which appliesradiofrequency waves to kill cancer tissues.

Scientists from all over the world come toCAMI to design research projects for Siemensscanners and negotiate collaborations.Siemens delivers the software for these proj-ects, and researchers provide feedback in orderto help the CAMI group improve their proto-types. “To date, our interventional softwarepackage has been delivered to eight coun-tries,” Pan says proudly.

“At Siemens Corporate Research, we en-counter people from all over the world,” saysPan. “Everybody brings his or her own perspec-tive and ways to deal with issues. For example,Germans tend to raise issues very directly. Ifyou are not familiar with this custom, you maymistake it for personal criticism — but withtime, you learn not to.”

In 1991 Pan enrolled for a degree course inbiomedical engineering at one of the best uni-versities in China, Tsinghua University in Bei-jing. Fascinated by math and science sincechildhood, Pan loves to do hands-on work, andTsinghua University’s teaching method alsoemphasizes that approach. Half of her class-mates at the university continued their studiesabroad after graduation, and so did Pan. Infact, she was the first Ph.D. candidate accepteddirectly from mainland China into the biomed-ical engineering program at Johns HopkinsUniversity, which is widely regarded as one ofthe best teaching hospitals in the U.S. Howev-er, when she moved from Beijing to farawayBaltimore in 1999, things did not work out eas-ily all the time.

A Leap into Cold Water. With less than per-fect English, she had to manage plenty of newtasks right after she arrived — such as findingan apartment. “At universities in China, manyof these things are taken care of for you. Here,I was on my own,” she says. Today she is theonly one of her class from Tsinghua Universitywho is still working in the field of biomedicalengineering. Others decided to do research indifferent areas or became financial analysts orcomputer scientists. Many went back to China,in some cases because of the economic boomin their home country. But Pan stayed.

When she began to study at Johns Hopkins,she encountered a different teaching style.Students were able to work with different pro-fessors of their choice and develop their ownresearch agendas. They had to think more in-dependently, and after they had decided on aresearch project for a dissertation they them-selves had to make sure they had the resourcesto carry it out.

At Johns Hopkins, Pan soon became fasci-nated by MRI technologies. In her doctoral the-sis she developed algorithms that helped toidentify heart dysfunction in real time usingMRI. After completing her dissertation in 2006,she applied to Siemens. The Siemens researchgroup that focused on interventional MRI hadmoved into a lab that was only two floors be-low Pan’s former workplace.

Pan and her colleagues, together with theirpartners in industry and research, are currentlyworking on developing an MRI-guided inter-ventional system to improve catheter-basedcardiac procedures. Her own focus within thisproject is to develop software that allowsphysicians to navigate a catheter through thebody to the heart by tracking its motion in realtime. “My hope is that these technologies willbecome clinical standards in the near future,”she says. “But for us, there will certainly beplenty of new projects to work on. Researchnever ends.” Hubertus Breuer

Paths to the Heart

Pictures of the Future | Spring 2011 6968 Pictures of the Future | Spring 2011

The importance of international research networks

that link universities, research institutes, and com-

panies has been increasing since the 1980s — and it

makes no difference whether the scientists live in

Beijing, Mumbai, Princeton, or Munich. Such networks

were initially designed to adapt products to local re-

quirements in emerging markets. But these days we’re

also seeing technology transfer from emerging markets

to the advanced industrialized nations. According to

Deutsche Bank Research, for instance, exports of R&D

services from India to the EU have increased by a factor

of 2.5 since 2004, while the volume of such services

from China has risen by a factor of three.

Strategy consulting firm Booz & Company reports

that almost two thirds of the $503 billion spent on re-

search and development by the world’s 1,000 biggest

companies in 2009 was invested in the sectors for elec-

tronics/computers (28 percent), health/pharmaceuticals

(21 percent), and automobiles (16 percent). Global R&D

investment fell by 1.9 percent in the crisis year of 2009

— and in many industrialized countries it declined by

more than three percent, as reported in the Investment

Scoreboard published by the European Commission last

year. The report examined 1,400 companies around the

world in terms of the total value of their worldwide R&D

investments, regardless of location.

Developments in China and India have been com-

pletely different. They increased their research and de-

velopment budgets by a combined 41.8 percent in the

crisis year of 2009, according to Booz & Company. The

huge extent to which the distribution of global R&D ex-

penditure has changed is also demonstrated by the UN-

ESCO Science Report 2010. Whereas in 1990 some 92

percent of total R&D activity worldwide was concentrat-

ed in just seven OECD countries, the industrial nations

accounted for only 76 percent of this activity in 2007.

The share for the U.S. was approximately one third, and

the European Union accounted for just under 25 per-

cent. The figure for Germany was 6.3 percent. Neverthe-

less, China and India are becoming increasingly impor-

tant as research locations. DB Research reports that

international companies invested almost $40 billion in

R&D units in those countries in 2007.

Industrialized nations are using government funding

to counter this trend. For example, the EU’s investment

in R&D will total €50.5 billion for the period 2007–2013.

These funds will be spent on projects for battling climate

change, developing renewable energy sources, and im-

Research without Borders | Facts and Forecasts

Emerging Markets Catching Up in Research and Development

proving health and food safety. In the U.S., Government

funding of non-military research and development is set

to increase by 5.9 percent in 2011 to $65.8 billion. Most

of this investment will be earmarked for the health sec-

tor, fundamental research, aerospace, raw materials and

environmental research, and energy and transport proj-

ects. The U.S. and Japan also provide tax breaks for R&D

activities, such as deductions for personnel costs for re-

searchers and depreciation of equipment and buildings.

According to the UNESCO Science Report, the U.S.

accounted for around one third of all the money spent

on research worldwide in 2010. Europe followed with

23 percent and China’s contribution was just under nine

percent. Nevertheless, “the world in which technology

and science was dominated by the triad of the U.S., the

EU, and Japan is gradually giving way to a multipolar

constellation,” says UNESCO General Director Irina

Bokowa.

Along with China and India, countries such as Brazil,

Mexico, and South Africa are investing more and more

in research and development. According to the Battelle

Memorial Institute in the U.S., China’s R&D expenditure

will increase from $141.4 billion in 2010 to $153.7 bil-

lion in 2011 — which will put it ahead of Japan ($144.1

billion). Many nations also plan to invest more in higher

education. India, for example, will be building 30 new

universities, and the number of students in the country

is set to increase to 21 million as early as 2012.

Scientific exchanges with China are also on the rise.

DB Research reports that the number of scientists from

abroad who visit China or work with Chinese re-

searchers tripled to almost 100,000 between 2001 and

2008. China’s government plans to make the nation a

leading scientific power by 2050. The government’s

stated goal is to increase R&D expenditure from the cur-

rent level of just under 1.6 percent of gross domestic

product (GDP) to 2.5 percent by 2020 and to provide tar-

geted funding to technology clusters that include the

energy, IT, biotechnology, and space sectors.

R&D expenditure in the U.S. is currently around 2.8

percent of GDP, according to the OECD; the average for

the 27 EU countries is 1.8 percent, while Japan spends

3.4 percent of its GDP on R&D. A total of 1.7 percent of

gross world product was spent on research and develop-

ment in 2007 — 45 percent more than in 2002. This il-

lustrates the fact that countries have come to realize

that investment in knowledge and innovation holds the

key to their future competitiveness. Sylvia Trage

U.S.

Brazil

22.520.7

35.132.6

Mexico

Canada

Italy

2.0 1.9 2.4 2.1

3.3 2.8 2.2 1.9

European Union

25.322.5

26.1

23.1

France

3.7 3.14.8 3.7

UnitedKingdom

3.7 3.2 3.9 3.4

Germany

4.9 4.37.2 6.3

Russian Federation

2.8 3.22.0 2.0

China

7.910.7

5.0South Korea

2.0 1.9 2.88.93.6

India

3.8 4.7

1.6 2.2

Australia

1.3 1.2 1.3 1.4

Japan

7.4 6.5

13.7 12.9

2.9 2.81.6 1.8

2.1 2.30.5 0.5

Share of gross world product, 2002Share of gross world product, 2007Share of world GERD*, 2002Share of world GERD*, 2007

*GERD = Gross domestic expenditure on research and development

BRIC = Brazil, Russia, India, and China

Ranking of World’sLeading R&D Investors

Toyota Motor (1)123456789

1011121314151617181920

Roche (4)

Microsoft (2)

Volkswagen (3)

Pfizer (6)

Novartis (10)

Nokia (8)

Johnson & Johnson (7)

Sanofi-Aventis (12)

Samsung Electronics (24)

Siemens (19)

General Motors (5)

Honda Motor (11)

Daimler (13)

GlaxoSmithKline (20)

Merck (25)

Intel (17)

Panasonic (14)

Sony (16)

Cisco Systems (21)

The figures in parentheses are the ranking positions for the previous year (2009).

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

R&D investment in 2010 (in € billions)

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Patent Applications: Growth in China

Share of global patent applications (in %)

Europe: Rapidly GrowingResearch Funding

University Students: China Catches Up

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Millions of new students

Patents with Partners

Patent applications from Germanythat include foreign partners (in %)

R&D Invested Abroad

Share of German companies’ external R&D expenditure invested outside of Germany (in %)

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EU 42Rest 29

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Pictures of the Future | Spring 2011 7170 Pictures of the Future | Spring 2011

Research without Borders | Biograph mMR

A new kind of medical imaging system is currently undergoing clinical use testing in Munich. Called the Biograph mMR, it is the world’s first system to combine magnetic resonance imaging andpositron emission tomography in one scanner. As a result, it is now possible for the first time to simultaneously display the position, function and metabolism of internal organs in a single image.

creasing metabolic activity, which is an indica-tor of dementia, among other illnesses. Profes-sor Hermann Requardt, CEO of the SiemensHealthcare Sector, expects the combination ofPET and MR in a single system to generate ma-jor benefits. “We can overcome the challengesto our health care systems only if we identifydiseases as early and as precisely as possible,treat them appropriately, and keep an eye oncosts,” he says. “After all, nothing is more ex-pensive than therapy that doesn’t work, or a

they work with magnetic fields — this tech-nique is especially suitable for examinations ofchildren and for follow-up examinations.

In addition to its spatial and temporal preci-sion, Biograph mMR offers the unique advan-tage of being able to simultaneously acquireMR and PET images of the whole body in about30 minutes. Previously, two separate examina-tions were required, after which the two im-ages would be combined — a time-consum-ing process with reduced precision, as patients

Doctors such as Professor Schwaiger (above in an

MR examination room) want to use the high-reso-

lution images from the Biograph mMR whole-body

MR-PET scanner to gain new insights in oncology,

cardiology, and neurology. This could result in the

early detection of diseases and the provision of

more effective treatments.

Munich’s “Klinikum rechts der Isar” univer-sity hospital has an outstanding interna-

tional reputation for scientific advances. In2008 the successful transplantation at the hos-pital of two complete arms caused a sensationaround the world. In November 2010 the hos-pital was in the spotlight again with anotherfirst when Siemens Healthcare installed theworld’s first fully integrated whole-body MR-PET system in the hospital’s Nuclear MedicineClinic. The system has been undergoing clini-cal use testing since then.

The special feature of the 3-tesla hybrid sys-tem named Biograph mMR — the “m” standsfor molecular — is that it combines two impor-tant imaging techniques in one system:positron emission tomography (PET) and mag-netic resonance imaging (MRI).

Hybrid Insights

There are a number of significant differ-ences between the ways in which these twotechniques function (see box, following page),but they both supply mutually complementaryinformation about diseases. Whereas an MRsystem can generate images of the humananatomy at millimeter-scale resolution, a PETscanner is especially useful for studying themetabolism of cells.

“The Biograph mMR now makes it possiblefor us to create whole-body images with MRand PET at the same time and to superimposethem,” says Professor Markus Schwaiger, thedirector of Klinikum rechts der Isar’s NuclearMedicine Clinic. Schwaiger has high hopes forthe clinical trials. “We’re concentrating on ap-plications in the field of oncology — on pa-tients suffering from cancer, in other words.

What interests us is the extra value the systemoffers compared with current examinationmethods. We hope it will help us make betterand more precise diagnoses,” he says.

Schwaiger’s hopes should be justified, be-cause doctors using the Biograph mMR duringan examination can see not only whether thesize of a tumor has decreased but also, for ex-ample, whether its energy consumption andthus its metabolism has slowed down. Fromthis information they can infer that the tumoris responding to medication and that the ther-apy (such as a chemotherapy) should be con-tinued.

Biograph mMR could also support the diag-nosis of neurodegenerative diseases. Thismight be accomplished, for example, by identi-fying certain areas of the brain that show de-

How Magnetic Resonance Imaging (MRI) WorksMRI is characterized by very high soft-tissue contrast, making it ideal for identifying pathological

changes in organs. This is because MRI sees the hydrogen atoms in the proteins and adipose tissue that

make up organs. A very strong magnetic field of, for example, three tesla (60,000 times stronger than

the earth’s magnetic field) can be used to align the nuclei of the hydrogen atoms with the direction of

the magnetic field lines. At the same time, a radio signal is used to slightly disturb this alignment .

When the extra radio signal is switched off, the hydrogen atoms return to their original alignment with

the applied magnetic field. Depending on the region in which the particles are located (such as the liver,

subcutaneous fat, or bodily fluid), this realignment takes varying lengths of time and can therefore be

depicted by means of MRI.

How Positron Emission Tomography (PET) Works

PET is primarily used to study metabolism in tissue cells. To this end, a tracer is first injected into the pa-

tient’s bloodstream. This is usually a type of glucose containing short-lived radioactive fluorine as a

marker. This fluorine-18-deoxyglucose, or FDG, is absorbed primarily by those cells that use glucose as

an energy source. It therefore allows cells that are characterized by high energy demand, such as tumor

cells, to be visualized, because they absorb more of the tagged glucose than other cells. Inside the cells,

the radioactive tracer decays and emits positrons that collide with electrons — their counterparts — in

surrounding tissue and emit radiation in the resulting process of annihilation. This gives rise to two gam-

ma quanta, which fly away at an angle of 180 degrees to one another. These are measured by a ring of

detectors inside a tube that surrounds the patient. If two different detectors pick up gamma quanta at

the same time, the system has therefore discovered a positron in the body of the patient on the line con-

necting these two detectors. With the ring detector, countless lines can be traced in this way. The points

where the lines intersect can be identified as areas of heightened energy consumption.

therapy to treat an illness that the patientdoesn’t even have.”

“Clinical use testing will help us to monitorthe progress of diseases. We will use the result-ing information to develop a dedicated plan oftreatment for each individual patient,” explainsSchwaiger. “Furthermore, we expect that thenew combined technology will help us to iden-tify tumors and perform biopsies with fargreater precision than would otherwise be thecase, while offering a significant improvementin patient comfort.” At the same time, the newmachine is expected to facilitate progress inthe development of new biomarkers and to de-liver insights that will help to develop newtypes of treatment for cancer, heart disease,and neurological disorders. Since MRs do notuse ionizing radiation to visualize the body —

and their organs always move, however slight-ly, between examinations. Simultaneous imag-ing by the Biograph mMR therefore enables amore precise diagnosis and is also more com-fortable for patients, since they only have to beexamined once.

Combining Forces. What did it take to com-bine MR and PET into a single system? “For onething, there were all kinds of technical prob-lems in terms of combining two very large ma-chines. But above all, we had to overcometechnological limits,” says Walter Märzendor-fer, head of Siemens Healthcare’s MagneticResonance Business Unit. To do so, Siemens’Molecular Imaging (MI) Business Unit in Hoff-man Estates, Illinois and Märzendorfer’s Busi-ness Unit in Erlangen, Germany, pooled their

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Research without Borders | Wind in Mali

How can electricity be supplied to some of the world’s poorest regions? Siemens engineer Piet-Willem Chevalier manufactureswind turbines in Mali and trains local people to build and servicethe technology. The result is a classic example of sustainability.

Do-it-Yourself Power

Mali nights are fantastic,” says Piet-WillemChevalier. “You can see countless stars

because there’s no light pollution.” Mali, acountry in West Africa, has no national powergrid and very few people can afford a dieselgenerator. That’s why Chevalier, an engineerfor dynamic wind turbine analyses at SiemensEnergy in Den Haag, wants to supply Mali withgreen electricity. Since 2008 he has beenworking in his free time on the “I love windpower” project, which trains Malians to buildwind turbines from locally available materials.

Afterwards, trainees will be able to set uptheir own companies, which will not onlymake wind power systems, but also offer re-pair service and battery charging stations.“When a solar cell breaks, you have to buy anew one — but wind power gets local peopleinvolved,” says Chevalier, who believes thattechnological and social progress go together.When asked how he got started, he replies, “Iusually work on a computer, but I wanted tobuild a small wind turbine with my ownhands.” On the Internet he found instructionsfrom Scottish developer Hugh Piggott, who

has been making wind turbines from simplematerials for decades.

“Mali is one of the world’s poorest coun-tries,” explains Brahima Bocar, who comesfrom the Timbuktu region and works forSiemens in Warsaw. “People often have to walkseveral kilometers just to get water.” In 2010Mali ranked 160th among the 169 countrieson the United Nations Human Development In-dex. Desert covers over 60 percent of thecountry.

Between 1970 and 1990 hundreds of smallwind turbines were set up in Mali to pump wa-ter, but only a few of them are still in opera-tion, says Bocar. “They were financed by for-eign organizations. When the projects wereover, no one cared about the pumps any more.The local inhabitants lacked the needed ex-pertise to maintain them. It’s not enough tosupply a product, you also have to train andmotivate people to keep it running.”

In 2008 Chevalier met Bocar at a Siemenstraining course in Denmark. Bocar talked aboutdaily life in Mali and Chevalier described thewind turbines he was building. They soon real-

Pictures of the Future | Spring 2011 7372 Pictures of the Future | Spring 2011

expertise and included a huge global networkof development partners in the effort —among them researchers from the UniversityHospital in Tübingen, Germany’s Jülich re-search center, the Athinoula A. Martinos Cen-ter in Boston, and Emory University in Atlanta,Georgia. “It was exemplary teamwork,” saysMärzendorfer.

One important approach pursued by devel-opers was to make crucial changes to the exist-ing PET detector. PET scans create gammaquanta in a patient’s body. These quanta leadto the emission of photons in the scintillationcrystals located at the front of the detector. Inthe past, these photons were electronicallyamplified by photomultipliers (electron tubesseveral centimeters long) before they weremeasured. But an MR system’s magnetic fieldwould so strongly deflect the cascade of elec-trons generated by photomultipliers that itwould be impossible to measure any clear sig-nal — a seemingly insurmountable obstacle tothe integration of the two technologies.

The solution? “In the Biograph mMR we re-placed the photomultipliers with avalanchephotodiodes (APD), which are only a fractionof the size of electron tubes,” says Dr. MatthiasSchmand, head of Siemens Healthcare’s PETDetector Research and Development program.Although the APDs likewise measure an elec-tron flow that is caused by photons, this takesplace within a semiconductor layer system thatdoes not react sensitively to external magneticfields. “At the same time, the APDs made itpossible to overcome a second hurdle: They’resmall enough to be integrated into the hous-ing of an MR,” explains Schmand.

Heading for Personalized Medicine. Beforethe Biograph mMR goes to serial production —which is initially scheduled for the Europeanmarket in the second half of 2011 — Siemensand the Nuclear Medicine Clinic at Klinikumrechts der Isar will review how the system fitsinto daily hospital routines, including trainingof personnel and patient examination schedul-ing. The German Research Foundation (DFG) isalso playing a major role in this respect by pro-viding broad financial support for research inthe area of MR-PET imaging in Germany.

In addition to the Biograph mMR in Munich,several more units will be installed during2011, with devices planned for Tübingen, Es-sen, and Leipzig. “The Biograph mMR will bean important tool for driving personalizedmedicine forward and better understandingdiseases such as Alzheimer’s,” says Märzendor-fer. A technological revolution is thus underway at the Klinikum rechts der Isar. Neverthe-less, it will not be the first time in its 177 yearhistory that this hospital sets new standards inthe medical world. Sebastian Webel

lier. “I wanted to find the right people for theproject,” he says. “I need people who want tochange their lives and set up their own busi-nesses.” None of the ten participants selectedfor the first workshop had a permanent job.They worked as day laborers; a joiner madefurniture and a welder recycled scrap metaland old cars at a junkyard.

When the preparations were completed inDecember 2009, Chevalier traveled to Mali forthe first time. It took him and the foundationtwo weeks to find the required components,although the materials were all locally avail-able. “I’m impatient, but everything’s differentin Africa, even the sense of time,” he says. Youhave to adjust to the local rhythm “or youwon’t even last four days.” Cultural differencesturned out to be the biggest problem, not thepeople’s craftsmanship, as Chevalier had origi-nally expected. “The people in Mali know howto use tools better than I do,” he says.

People Power. Another challenge was Mali’sstrict caste system, which regulates whichclasses of people are allowed to do what. Theten participants nonetheless included twowomen — a rare situation in Mali’s conserva-tive Muslim society. Every morning Gernerasked the participants to do exercises tostrengthen their team spirit. “It was a big stepforward when the men and women touchedeach other’s hands,” she says. Another obstaclewas the language, as the Malians speak vari-ous local dialects and pronounce French wordswith a strong accent. Chevalier overcamethese difficulties by creating posters to explainhow wind turbines are built. “I was initially an-noyed that no one asked questions,” he says.“But then I realized they were shy. However,their self-confidence grew after they had builttheir first wind turbine.”

Chevalier and Gerner managed to buy mostof the required materials from local merchants.Only two components had to be imported: per-manent magnets from China and polyester toinsulate the copper wires, which came fromSenegal. In workshops participants learnedhow to make wind turbines that are between12 and 20 meters tall with rotor diameters of1.2 to 4.2 meters.

A turbine with a diameter of three metershas a peak output of 900 watts and an energyyield of 150 kilowatt hours (kWh) per month,explains Chevalier. “The materials and assem-bly cost around €350, to which you have toadd the cost of the mast, batteries, and elec-tronic systems, such as the voltage regulator.Although you can buy these components inMali, our do-it-yourself technology allows us tomake them at 10 to 20 percent of the normalcost.” That reduces the cost of a turbine by sev-eral dozen euros.

“If a wind turbine is sold for €650, its elec-tricity costs about 20 euro cents per kWh,” saysChevalier. The electricity produced by a smalldiesel generator costs 80 euro cents per kWh.“You can therefore achieve the breakevenpoint after only a year,” he says. Malians whoare now getting electricity for the first time intheir lives mostly use it for lighting or torecharge their cell phones. Some also buy a re-frigerator or a TV.

But Chevalier’s project is now on hold. “Wehad big storms in August 2010,” reports Gern-er. As a result, the mast of one of the four com-pleted turbines snapped. Another three mastshave not yet been set up because Chevalier’sprivate resources have dried up. “So far I’vepaid for everything out of my own pocket anddone the work in my free time,” he says.Chevalier must therefore find new sources forfunding wind power so that Mali’s people nolonger has to live in the dark. Evelyn Runge

Dutch engineer Piet Chevalier is working

on wind power for Mali. His 900-watt turbines

are handmade locally and almost all of the

materials come from the vicinity.

ized that such open-source wind power facili-ties could transform people’s lives in Mali. Evenuneducated people can easily build the tur-bines, as the blades are made of wood that canbe sawed and chiseled into the right shape.The generator consists of coiled copper wireand the rotor spins on a car wheel hub. “Youalso need a few metal brackets and a pipe forthe mast — that’s all,” says Chevalier. It doesn’tcost much to set up the wind turbines, sinceno expensive tools are required.

Culture Shock. Chevalier subsequently con-tacted Yvonne Gerner, who lives near theprovincial capital of Mopti in Mali. Togetherwith social worker Mamadou “Baba” Traoré,Gerner initiated the Rondom Baba Foundationin 2007. The foundation has bought a hectareof land and is teaching local people agricultur-al techniques and how to work wood, leather,and metal. It was the ideal partner for Cheva-

Pictures of the Future | Spring 2011 75

Research without Borders | Patents

Thanks to a sophisticated strategy, around 58,000 patents currently protect Siemens’ expertise and technological edge.

For years LEDs offered only dim points of light.

Today, tiny lights such as Osram’s Ostar are so

bright and energy efficient that they can be used

everywhere, including headlights (below).

Protecting Success

How can you measure the value of a com-pany like Siemens? You might, for exam-

ple, look at its share price, sales, real estateand facilities, or brand value. “But the most im-portant added value for a company likeSiemens, which is striving to be a technologi-cal trendsetter, is its employees’ expertise,”says Prof. Winfried Büttner, Head of CorporateIntellectual Property and Functions and thus

ally being showered. Instead, the active man-agement of patent portfolios is more like work-ing on a house that is continuously being mod-ified and expanded. That’s because theapproximately 2,000 patents added in fiscalyear 2010 actually constitute the differencebetween the 8,000 patents that were grantedduring the year and the 6,000 patents that ei-ther expired after the usual term of 20 years or

patent strategy. Here, the crucial issue is to de-termine how business will develop in the vari-ous sectors in coming years and what tech-nologies will be required. “We try to protectour products by obtaining key patents yearsbefore production actually starts,” explains An-dreas Müller, who is responsible for Strategy atSiemens’ patent department. To do this, thecompany identifies trend-setting technologies,

the guardian of the company’s greatest assets— its patents. As of September 30, 2010,Siemens owned 57,900 patents, a figure thathas been steadily increasing in recent years. Inthe past decade the average number of inven-tions registered per researcher and developereach year has doubled. In 2010 the companyregistered 8,800 inventions for the first timeand applied for 4,300 patents.

But one shouldn’t imagine that this hugenumber of patents is like a steadily growingpile on top of which new patents are continu-

were discarded because they had lost their rel-evance for the company.

Each year, approximately 220 patent spe-cialists who work for Siemens Corporate Tech-nology worldwide collaborate with their coun-terparts in the Groups to examine all of thecompany’s patents that are older than fiveyears and weed out those that are no longerneeded. In this way, Siemens continuously ad-justs its patent portfolio to the current busi-ness situation and keeps its overview up todate. Another important factor is Siemens’

for example. The patent-related activities ofcompetitors can also provide valuable informa-tion, for example when there is a sudden in-crease in the number of a rival company’spatent applications.

Once these questions have been clarified,the department develops a customized patentstrategy that identifies technologies worthy ofpatent protection and recommends appropri-ate research and development measures.Patent experts at Siemens are currently con-ducting focused patenting work for around

74 Pictures of the Future | Spring 2011

The district of Odintsovo, located just a fewkilometers southwest of Moscow, has a

great reputation as a recreational area. The dis-trict’s village of Skolkovo, which has a popula-tion of just a few hundred, is surrounded bywoods, meadows, and farms. Nonetheless,Russian president Dmitry Medvedev has bigplans for Skolkovo, where the Moscow Schoolof Management — one of the best schools forRussia’s business elite — was opened in 2006.Medvedev now plans to build the country’smost advanced research and innovation centeron a 380-hectare site — surrounded by a newcity with up to 25,000 residents.

Medvedev has made the rapid constructionof Skolkovo a presidential priority. Ground-breaking is scheduled for mid-2011 and thenew city is to be completed in just three years.When completed, it will boast comfortable res-idential buildings, shops, kindergartens,schools, and hotels. The new city’s centerpiecewill be the Skolkovo Institute of Technology(SIT), a research facility focusing on informa-

tion technology, energy efficiency, medical en-gineering, biotechnology, nuclear technology,and aerospace systems. The Russian govern-ment plans to spend around €3 billion onSkolkovo. The project will be the core of an am-bitious modernization program designed tohelp Russia catch up with leading industrial-ized nations in terms of modern technology.

“Skolkovo will be an open, transparent, andinternationally focused innovation hub thatwill attract not only talented Russian scientistsbut also foreign experts and specialists,” saysStanislav Naumov, a former Deputy Minister ofIndustry and Trade who is now responsible forpublic relations at the Skolkovo Foundation.“The city,” he adds, “will offer the best possibleconditions for research and teaching.” The es-tablishment of SIT will mark the first time inRussia’s history that Russian scientists willwork, study, and teach alongside foreign na-tionals. The Russian government is also tryingto get foreign companies and start-ups to in-vest in Skolkovo. Foreign enterprises will be al-lowed to hold as much as 100 percent of thecompanies supported by the Skolkovo project,and can probably also expect to receive taxbreaks from the Russian government.

International Cooperation. In 2010 Siemensbecame the first major German company tolaunch a strategic partnership with the ini-tiators of the Skolkovo project. Siemens willhelp build the urban infrastructure for Skolko-vo by providing building system and watertreatment technologies, public transport sys-tem components, and solutions for energy ef-ficiency. “Skolkovo is to become a model cityfor ecology and the environment,” saysSiemens project manager Alexander Averi-anov. Siemens Corporate Research head Dr.Reinhold Achatz believes that “the focus areas

of the Skolkovo project align perfectly withSiemens’ strategy, which is geared toward dif-ferentiation and sustainability in the attractiveRussian market.” Siemens also plans to buildone of the company’s biggest international re-search centers in Skolkovo at a facility that willemploy some 200 researchers and scientists.

“The Skolkovo project is the right approachfor creating a suitable climate for internationalcooperation,” says Dr. Martin Gitsels, whomanages Siemens’ research activities in Russia.Dr. Oliver Heid, a Siemens expert in new tech-nologies and concepts, has high hopes forjoint research in areas such as particle acceler-ation. And he has plenty of respect for the ex-pertise of Russian scientists. “They’ve got agreat reputation in the fields of particle accel-eration, materials research, and mathematics,”he says. Particle accelerators are used to fighttumors with radiation therapy, for example.Researchers plan to make the devices smallerand more powerful. “That would be a majorstep in medical technology,” says Heid.

To ensure rapid development of the re-search city, the Skolkovo-Innograd Foundationwas established. Viktor Vekselberg, thefounder and owner of Renova Holding, an in-vestment firm, is the president of the founda-tion, whose council includes representatives ofSiemens. Vekselberg is not comfortable withthe description of Skolkovo as “Russia’s SiliconValley.” “Skolkovo can only mark the beginningof a long road to modernization,” he explains.“Here we want to find out on a small scale howwe can solve some of the problems facing ourcountry.” He believes that one of Skolkovo’smain purposes is to keep young skilled special-ists in Russia and make the country an attrac-tive research location for foreign scientists andcompanies — a “Russian bridge between sci-ence and business.” Thomas Veser

International research activities will begin in Skolkovo

in 2014. The city itself (see model above) is to be an

example of efficient energy use.

Research without Borders | Skolkovo

Siemens technology is being used to create a new science city in Skolkovo on the outskirts ofMoscow. The center is expected to attract researchers from Russia and abroad.

Heading for Russia’s Science City

Pictures of the Future | Spring 2011 77

Research Without Borders

In BriefIn the future, research will increasingly be con-

ducted across national borders because of the ad-

vantages of working closely with international in-

stitutes. EU research projects demonstrate what

can happen when Europe’s greatest minds come

together. In areas such as the Internet of things,

new lighting technologies, and energy fusion,

Siemens is at the forefront of Europe’s research

and innovation landscape. (p. 50)

A key factor for achieving success in interna-

tional markets is an improved ability to under-

stand foreign cultures. That’s why Siemens was

the first major German company to offer culture-

oriented training programs and has been doing

so for more than 30 years. The Learning Campus,

an in-house training and consulting center, was

founded in 2003 — a pioneering step for ensur-

ing intercultural business expertise. (p. 54)

Siemens researchers and developers are work-

ing very effectively in international networks to

develop inexpensive and functional entry-level

products . These products now have what it takes

to conquer markets, and not just in emerging

economies. (p.56)

In another example of how solutions can be

successful worldwide, Siemens is working to-

gether with Chinese partners. The objective is to

combine the advantages of traditional Chinese

medicine (TCM) with those of Western science.

To make that possible, new approaches are re-

quired for medical technology, (p.58)

Munich’s Klinikum rechts der Isar hospital is

following new paths in medical technology. A

completely new kind of medical device went into

operation at the clinic in late 2010. Called the Bi-

ograph mMR, it is the world’s first machine to

combine magnetic resonance tomography and

positron emission tomography (PET) in one sys-

tem. The combination of these two features in a

single device for the first time allows doctors to

simultaneously display images of structural

changes in organs and visualize their perform-

ance and metabolism. (p. 70)

Siemens technology is being used to create a

new science city on the outskirts of Moscow.

Known as Skolkovo, it is designed to attract re-

searchers from Russia and abroad. (p.74)

PEOPLE:

University partnerships:

Dr. Natascha Eckert, CT O UNI

[email protected]

Jack Hurley, CT

[email protected]

EU projects:

Dr. Natascha Eckert, CT O UNI

[email protected]

Learning Campus:

Zailiang Tang, CHR

[email protected]

SMART products:

Dr. Zubin Varghese, CT

[email protected]

Thiago Pistore, Energy

[email protected]

Mattias Lampe, CT

[email protected]

Whole-body MR PET:

Katja Stöcker, Healthcare

[email protected]

Mali wind power plant:

Piet Willem Chevalier, Energy

[email protected]

Portraits:

Charles Coushaine, Industry

[email protected]

Dr. Ramesh Visvanathan, CT

[email protected]

Dr. Heike Barlag, Energy

[email protected]

Michael Shore, Industry

[email protected]

Dr. Li Pan, CT

[email protected]

Skolkovo:

Alexander Averianov, Siemens One

[email protected]

Patents:

Andreas Müller, CT

[email protected]

Prof. Alois Moosmüller:

[email protected]

LINKS:

Skolkovo Foundation:

www.i-gorod.com/en

Klinikum rechts der Isar of Munich Technical

University:

www.med.tu-muenchen.de

metal coating is applied to the inside of theLED. The coating acts as a mirror that reflectsthe light generated within the chip to the sur-face, where it is outside without any loss. Morethan 40 such inventions are contained in theOstar-LED. In fact, the rapid pace of develop-ment at Osram has helped to transform suchlight emitting diodes into affordable, universallighting systems.

Siemens does not deliberately createpatents in order to allow other companies touse them for a fee. Instead, says Büttner “Weprimarily patent things that we can use our-selves,” But Siemens is nonetheless part oflarge licensing networks. For example, thecompany is involved in telecommunications,where it has developed many technologies forthe 3G mobile communications standard.These still play an important role on the mar-ket even though Siemens no longer sells cellphones. As a result, the company still makesmoney from a technology it no longer uses.

Siemens also has a clear policy with regardto “blocking patents,” which are designed pri-marily to obstruct market development bycompetitors. “Putting roadblocks in other peo-ple’s way is not part of our strategy,” says Büt-tner. Siemens nonetheless uses patents to helpprotect itself in certain areas such as shippropulsion technology. For example, Siemensexperts have developed a drive system thatdramatically reduces ship vibrations and theflickering of lighting. Anyone who has everbeen on a cruise ship is familiar with such in-conveniences, which are due to rapid changesin the output of diesel engines as they respondto minor fluctuations in the rotation of theship’s propellers. Siemens therefore developeda rotational speed control system that changesengine output more gently in order to preventvibrations in the ship’s hull and fluctuations inthe onboard electrical system while at thesame time reducing engine emissions. This in-vention and its use are protected by sevenpatents. In this field Siemens is also applyingfor patents that it currently does not use, butthat “act as barbed wire against alternative so-lutions,” explains Wolfgang Zeiler, who is re-sponsible for Siemens Marine Solutions’ patentportfolio.

Siemens’ patent experts are watching theup-and-coming Asian markets especially close-ly. Chinese companies in particular use every-thing that isn’t legally protected and some-times even go a bit further. Yet Bütt ner isconvinced that patent violations will decreasein China in the future, because Chinese com-panies will increasingly apply for patents them-selves and thus have an interest in effectiveprotection. “If you have property of your ownand something to lose, you’ll also respect theproperty of others,” he says. Bernd Müller

76 Pictures of the Future | Spring 2011

500 key technologies. They don’t wait until aninvention has been completed, but instead be-gin supporting and managing the develop-ment process in close cooperation with ex-perts from associated departments long beforea patent is applied for. If the pace of inventionin a specific area of technology is slower thanexpected, patent specialists work with devel-opers to organize invention-on-demand work-shops, where participants discuss the strategythat can support a new technology with a viewto identifying developments that might bepatented. Another possibility is to do IP bench-marking, in which the team analyzes the tech-nological status of a competitors’ patents andworks together with developers to come upwith suitable measures.

Patents for the Environment. Innovationand the pioneering spirit are key elements ofthe Siemens mindset, producing impressivetechnological advances that benefit the com-pany’s customers and the environment.Siemens is therefore rapidly expanding its en-vironmental portfolio and the range of prod-ucts and patents it has in this area. As a result,it was able to sell €28 bil-lion worth of especially ef-ficient technologies in fis-cal 2010. These solutionshave reduced the amountof CO2 emitted into the en-vironment by around 270million tons. Some 18,200patents currently protect Siemens’ environ-mental portfolio. A particularly successful de-velopment in this field is the world’s largestand most powerful gas turbine (375megawatts), which has been undergoing test-ing in Irsching, Bavaria, since 2007 (Pictures ofthe Future, Fall 2007, p. 54). Once its expan-sion into a combined cycle power plant hasbeen completed in 2011, the turbine, which isdesignated SGT5-8000H, will have an efficien-cy of over 60 percent — a world record.

Siemens has submitted patent applicationsfor this turbine since 2001, applying for an av-erage of one patent every month during peakperiods of the development process. One ofthe patent applications is for new compressorblade profiles, which were previously based onthose found in airplane engines. Given that the

turbine has the output of 17 passenger jet en-gines, these profiles are not optimal. Usingsimulations, Siemens developers found thatthe leading edge of each blade must be madethicker so that compressed air can reach itsmaximum speed sooner. Tests in a wind tunnelwere so positive that developers were able toeliminate some of the rows of blades, thus sav-ing around €100,000 in manufacturing costswhile at the same time increasing efficiency.

The resulting 8000H gas turbine is also agood example of a successful acquisition strat-egy. When Siemens purchased Westinghouse’spower plant business in 1998, it also acquiredownership of all associated patents, includingthose for a can combustion chamber in whichseveral separate combustion chambers arearranged in a ring. “We couldn’t have taken thisstep without the Westinghouse patents,” saysWillibald Fischer, Head of 8000H Develop-ment.

More Light. Another example of successfulpatenting is the Ostar light-emitting diodefrom Siemens’ Osram Opto Semiconductorslighting subsidiary. This tiny LED has a lumi-

nous efficiency of over 100 lumens per watt,which makes it far more efficient than incan-descent lamps (12 lumens per watt). The prod-uct’s luminous flux can be increased via meas-ures that channel as much light as possiblefrom its components to the outside. In Ostar-LEDs, patented precision drilling and lockingpins allow the optics to be positioned to withinfive hundredths of a millimeter above the tinychips — larger deviations would substantiallyreduce the amount of usable luminous flux.The light generated by such chips used to bereflected several times within the chip so thatonly part of it could get outside and becomevisible. Osram Opto Semiconductors solvedthis problem by developing a thin-film technol-ogy that was awarded the German Future Prizein 2007. In this manufacturing technique, a

Protecting Ideas

Today’s patenting system originated in England,

where the first patent was granted in 1617. The

right to protect inventions triggered the industri-

al revolution and has accelerated the pace of in-

novation all the way to the present day. Ger-

many’s first patent law went into force on July 1,

1877, after being signed by Emperor William I.

Its passage had been preceded by decades-long

discussions of the pros and cons of patent pro-

tection. The debate took a new turn in 1876 as

a result of an essay by Werner von Siemens,

who strongly argued in favor of such a law. As

early as 1863, Werner had written to his brother

Carl, saying, “I have launched a big campaign

against the free trade crowd who would like to

eliminate all of the patent protection laws in the

world. …Of course I will have to brace myself

against many vitriolic attacks... “

About 18,200 patents protect the environmental portfolio that earned€28 billion for Siemens in 2010.

Top row: Siemens’ Siship Drive increases passenger

comfort on ships by reducing fluctuations in the

propeller’s rotational speed. Below: World’s most

efficient gas turbine in Irsching, Bavaria.

Pictures of the Future | Spring 2011 7978 Pictures of the Future | Spring 2011

It will take a little more time and patience be-fore this new high-tech baby is born. Never-

theless, its “fathers” — scientists from DLRGesellschaft für Raumfahrtanwendungen mbH(a space applications company) at the controlcenter of the German Aerospace Center inOberpfaffenhofen near Munich — keep glanc-ing at a monitor that is already displaying thecountdown to the blastoff of the first launcherlate in 2011. That’s when the first two satel-lites of the new Galileo European satellite navi-gation system are scheduled to be launchedinto orbit from Kourou Space Center in FrenchGuyana. To date, only two test satellites havebeen launched, in 2005 and 2008. This civiliansystem — both a competitor and an extensionof the GPS (Global Positioning System), whichis now 25 years old — was planned by the Eu-ropean Space Agency (ESA) and financed by

the European Union. By 2014 at least 18Galileo satellites are scheduled to be in orbit,thus making the system operational.

Siemens scientists and engineers havebeen among those actively engaged with thenew navigation technology. At Siemens Spacein Vienna, for example, they have taken a closelook at the heart of the satellite system — theatomic clocks used in generating the naviga-tion signal. At another level, the Mobility Divi-sion in Erlangen is developing concepts forcombining the signal with existing technolo-gies to create entirely new solutions for thetransportation industry.

All Systems Go. In Oberpfaffenhofen you canlook down from a gallery through massiveglass panes into the satellite control center. It isfrom here that the first Galileo satellites will be

controlled in their orbits during tests. “We’vealready transmitted wireless commands to thefirst two Galileo satellites, which are being as-sembled in Italy and are nearly complete,” saysWalter Päffgen, who heads the control center.“For instance, we’ve gotten the satellite to acti-vate a control nozzle that adjusts its position.”Everything is ready for Galileo — and that’strue across the board, because the research todefine the three orbits in which, eventually, 30satellites of the European navigation systemwill ultimately circle the Earth, has been com-pleted. The orbits will be located at an altitudeof 23,200 kilometers (14,407.2 miles) and in-clined 56 degrees with respect to the equator.This positioning will ensure that at least eightsatellites will simultaneously provide userswith information at any given time, anywhere,even at the Earth’s poles.

One of Galileo’s major advantages is accu-racy. This is the first navigation system to beequipped with a passive hydrogen maser clock,which has a deviation of one second per threemillion years. That’s important, as satellite nav-igation depends on chronological postagemarks that are transmitted from satellites tothe ground. The receiver — for instance, a car’snavigation device — compares its clock timewith that of the satellite. The distance from thesatellite can be computed from the time differ-ential. Since the satellite knows exactly whereit is in its orbit, the receiver system can deriveits own position through simple calculations.At least four satellites are needed to provideunequivocal positional data: three for the spa-tial coordinates height, length, and width, anda fourth to correct for the inaccuracy of the re-cipient’s clock, since it is not an atomic clock.

Pictures of the Future | Navigation with Galileo

Thanks to Europe’s Galileo satellite navigation system, by 2014 it may be possible to perform navigation-based services with one-meter precision. Siemens is developing initial applications, such as an exceptionally efficient way of controlling traffic lights.

A World of Precision Services

In the near future, up to 30 Galileo satellites

will support new mobility applications ranging

from identification of the closest electric vehicle

charging station to optimization of train speeds

depending on the grade and curvature of a track.

“The atomic clocks — and the time signalsthey generate — are the heart of the satellite,”explains Hans Steiner of Siemens Space. “A de-viation of ten nanoseconds would result in aninaccuracy of several meters on Earth.” Steinerand his team plan to ensure that each atomicclock functions flawlessly before its satellite islaunched. To do this, they have developed atest system with a timing instrument that con-tains an atomic clock based on an active hydro-gen maser that is ten times more accuratethan the atomic clocks to be based on Galileosatellites. The testing device’s timing signal iscompared with that of each satellite’s clock.“It’s essential to keep potential errors from de-veloping in the first place,” explains Steiner.

With its one-meter ac-curacy, the Galileo systemis of interest to SiemensMobility, which is develop-ing applications thatwould be inconceivablewithout satellite naviga-tion technology. For exam-ple, the new technology would make it possi-ble to mail test letters containing GPSreceivers. The resulting data would let thePostal Service know how long a letter is de-layed at different locations — which wouldhighlight bottlenecks in its logistics system.This would be difficult to accomplish with thecurrent GPS-based system because if a letterwere opened or lost, the system would be hardpressed to detect where this happened. GPS issimply not as reliable. But that will changewith Galileo. “The Galileo signal always con-tains additional information that indicates howaccurate the received signal actually is,” ex-plains Dieter Geiger of Siemens Mobility. Thisis an enormous advantage, because it makesthe information stand up in court. If a valuablepiece of mail were equipped with a Galileo re-ceiver, it could later be proven — in court, ifnecessary — at what location the item hadbeen lost. If the item were additionallyequipped with sensors, it would even be possi-ble to prove where it had been opened.

Another field in which Siemens Mobility haslong been active is traffic management. “Heretoo we intend to use the capabilities ofGalileo,” says Geiger. One example is trafficlight control systems. A traffic signal controllerat an intersection could, for instance, automat-ically detect the traffic flow rate on each streetand regulate its timing accordingly (for more,see page 91). This capability is currently sup-ported by old-fashioned induction loops in theground that count passing vehicles. If thistechnology were augmented by Galileo re-ceivers, however, a bus, for instance, could re-lay its speed, direction and distance to thenearest traffic light with one-meter accuracy.

The light would then stay green until the bushad passed. Unnecessary braking would beavoided and fuel would be saved.

These and other applications are being test-ed under realistic conditions in two Galileo Testand Development Centers — Siemens’ Testand Validation Center for rail systems in Weg-berg-Wildenrath (Pictures of the Future, Fall2010, p.14) and at the Aldenhoven Test Cen-ter, which is operated by RWTH Aachen Univer-sity. Both centers are testing transmitters thatemit signals identical to those that will beemitted by Galileo satellites. At Siemens’ railtest center, engineers are investigating howGalileo receivers can be used to optimize trainspeeds and energy use. For example, in order

to avoid delays, trains must travel along curvesat a speed that makes optimal use of eachcurve’s radius, while minimizing the use ofbrakes on downhill sections.

Taking Weather into Account. It’s particular-ly difficult for a train’s engineer to stay exactlyon schedule when tracks are slick with rain. Butprecise positioning data from Galileo satellitesin conjunction with up-to-date weather datawill enable the train’s speed to adapt more ac-curately to the situation, because exact infor-mation will be available regarding the track’sgradient and level of slippage due to moisture.As a result, train travel will become safer andmore dependable.

At the Aldenhoven Test Center, where appli-cations for road traffic are also being explored,scientists are looking for ways to improve safe-ty. Since all vehicles at the facility are equippedwith Galileo receivers, drivers can be alerted in-stantly to hazardous situations. For example, ifa car moves dangerously close to another vehi-cle at an intersection, its navigation system trig-gers an alarm. Safety mechanisms in both carsare activated, seat belts tensioned, and brakepressure increased.

Siemens development engineers in Alden-hoven are also thinking a step ahead — to theapproaching introduction of electric cars.Galileo’s one-meter precision will enable driv-ers of electric vehicles to see which rechargingstations are within their range and possiblyeven reserve a charging port. “Once Galileo isin orbit, many other applications will befound,” Geiger predicts. He is convinced thatGalileo will open the door to the future of mo-bility. Helen Sedlmeier

“A deviation of ten nanoseconds would result in an inaccuracy of several meters on Earth.”

She was coming right at us. Rose. Over athousand miles of churning thunderheads,

winds well above 300 kilometers per hour, apredicted storm surge of at least seven meters,and enough rain to put half of Houston underwater.

Satellites crisscrossing North America haddetected a tropical depression in the CaribbeanSea a week earlier, and oceans of remote sens-ing data had rapidly been distilled into a warn-ing as the depression veered northwestward,skimming the Yucatán Peninsula and soaking

Pictures of the Future | Spring 2011 8180 Pictures of the Future | Spring 2011

Collective Intelligence | Scenario 2030

As a massive storm approaches the U.S. Gulf Coast, the head of Houston’s Office of EmergencyManagement briefs the mayor in an interactive chamber that collectively represents everythingthat is happening throughout the city in real time and in virtually limitless detail.

The City Speaks

Highlights85 Healthcare’s Data Mining Engine

Using matrix-like intelligence to extract key information from patient electronic health records, an Ohio medical center has slashed quality-of care evaluation time by 50 per-cent. Soon, it could be doing this in real time, setting the stage for on-the-spot decision support.

90 Interview with Prof. Thomas W. MaloneThe founding director of the MITCenter for Collective Intelligenceforesees a growing level of collabo-ration between humans and machines.

91 Green Light for Smart TrafficAutomobiles and traffic lights at intersections in Houston, Texas, will soon be able to communicate with one another in real time. Experts predict that the technology will help to optimize traffic flows, accelerate emergency responses (see Scenario),reduce collisions, and minimize noise and air pollution.

96 Wheeler-Dealer AgentsLogistics networks in the automotiveindustry are becoming increasinglycomplex. Soon, software agents mayhelp negotiate the availability ofparts — in just seconds.

99 Instant CommunitiesSiemens researchers are working onintelligent sensors that communicatewith one another and can organizethemselves without the need for acontrol center.

2030Bracing for a storm of unprecedented size, the

city of Houston’s Office of Emergency Manage-

ment automatically dispatches armies of soft-

ware agents. Fanning through the information

systems that control the city’s healthcare, traffic

management, power and wastewater systems,

the agents tailor each infrastructure’s functions

to the storm. Collectively, they produce a real-

time interactive information picture that literally

puts the entire city at the mayor’s fingertips.

up moisture and power from warm Gulf ofMexico waters.

Twenty-four hours before a single wisp ofcloud blemished the city’s characteristicallycobalt sky, our Office of Emergency Manage-ment (OEM) was preparing for the worst. Thecenter’s vast, immersive, interactive displaysshowed the storm approaching from the southas the city’s vital signs were superimposed overcomposite real-time images of the skyline likea scene from some wildly oversized intensivecare unit.

Pictures of the Future | Spring 2011 83

Collective Intelligence | Digital Universe

Automated systems will soon generate more data than all human users combined. With its growing focus on machine collective intelligence, Siemens is systematically refining thedata from its own systems into actionable knowledge. The real challenge, however, is figuring out how to alchemizeknowledge into profitable information technology businesses.

way,” says Gerhard Kress, who is a key player ina strategic Siemens project based in Munichthat is charged with re-evaluating the compa-ny’s position in terms of its implementation ofinformation, communication and softwaretechnologies. “Hardware is becoming generic.Software — standalone as well as the embed-ded software that is an integral part of almostevery Siemens product from building manage-ment systems to medical scanners — has be-come the differentiating factor. And in-depthknowledge of complex applications, be it theoperation of a steel plant, a power plant, ahospital, or a traffic management system, iswhat will drive that software and keepSiemens ahead of its competitors.”

Indeed, if the company can zero in on howto harness much of the data that its businessesroutinely generate — not just process it, butmine actionable information from it, which isthe essence of collective intelligence — it maybe able to develop a virtually limitless pipelineof new services that can make its customers’businesses increasingly successful.

One area in which Siemens is already work-ing along these lines is its Fossil Power plantbusiness, which tracks some 2,500 parameterson each of its 9,000 customer gas turbinesaround the world (see page 97). Known as“Fleet Intelligence,” this massive effort not onlytracks each turbine’s vital signs, but aggregatesdata across its life-cycle, from design and oper-ations to sales, marketing and competitive in-formation, to distill knowledge that can helpeach customer — even when rare problemscrop up. “The result of this effort,” says Dejori,“is the ability to identify, respond to, and evenpredict events more rapidly and accurately.”

And that knowledge is growing in ways thatsometimes surprise even the experts. With re-gard to Siemens’ 375-MW gas turbine inIrsching, Germany, for instance, which, incombination with a steam turbine, is expectedto achieve a world record 60+ percent efficien-cy, learning algorithms are helping to maxi-mize the system’s output. The algorithmsachieve this by not only analyzing thousandsof parameter interactions and variables persecond, but by modeling what happens be-tween those measurements. “This constitutesa new strategy that no one has deployed be-fore,” says Prof. Dr. Thomas Runkler, whoheads CT’s Munich-based Intelligent Systemsand Control Global Technology Field (GTF).“Our algorithms actually simulate this dynamicbehavior, and thus the entire system dynam-ics.” Using the resulting models, algorithms au-tonomously determine how to optimize con-trol of the system. “Here,” explains Runkler,“the system explores the data, learns whichparts of the solution space are promising, andthen develops an optimized control strategy.Considering this, it is conceivable that the sys-tem will learn enough to boost the turbine’s ef-ficiency even more over time.”

The results of this learning process have notbeen lost on Siemens’ other turbines. Thanksto the company’s common Remote ServicePlatform (cRSP), Siemens has institutionalizeda remarkably efficient knowledge acquisitionprocess. Developed with input from CT, theplatform allows highly-secure data exchangesbetween customer sites and Siemens’ remoteservice centers. “Today, every major machinefrom Siemens is connected to a business-spe-cific segment of this system,” says Volker Ganz,who heads CT’s Munich-based Product andService Innovation GTF as well as a strategic

Major sources of machine-generated datainclude everything from satellite telemetry andGPS streams to the digital output of factories,air traffic management systems, hospitals, andenergy, security, financial, and web-use data-bases. “The data intensity of these and othersources is expanding at such a rapid rate,” saysMathaeus Dejori, who heads a special projecton collective intelligence at Siemens CorporateTechnology (CT) in Princeton, New Jersey, “thatin five years the amount of data generated bymachines will outpace the amount of datagenerated by all human users.”

Value Shift. Why is this important forSiemens? “A fundamental value shift is under-

Container port or data port? As systems from logistics

to building management are automated, the amount

of data transferred among machines is growing by

leaps and bounds. Harvesting actionable information

from these sources will turn them into gold mines.

Zettabyte Gold Mine

At some point around mid 2010 our civiliza-tion streaked past an invisible yet astonish-

ing milestone. For the first time, the totality ofour digital information surpassed onezettabyte — one trillion gigabytes. And accord-ing to a study conducted by market and fore-casting company IDC, that’s just the beginning.By 2020, the study predicts, “our digital uni-verse will be 44 times as big as it was in 2009.”

Much of this expanding universe is visible.We see it every day in the firmament of socialnetwork invitations, company intranets suchas Siemens’ TechnoWeb, emails, instant mes-sages, documents, high-resolution pictures,and downloadable videos (see pages 90 Mal-one, 106 social networks, and 112 Weikum).What is far less obvious is the explosive growthin machine-generated data, which is beingdriven by the steadily-diminishing cost andsteadily-increasing power of computing andsensing (see sensors, page 99), and by ad-vances in miniaturization, wireless communi-cation, data storage, decentralized intelli-gence, and algorithms.

our agents — have tracked the message as ithas spread through all the human and ma-chine social networking sites. We estimate thatclose to 99 percent of the population and 100percent of machines and systems that could beaffected by the storm have received it. Peopleare being encouraged to leave ASAP,” I added.“They can take any route their vehicles sug-gest. We don’t expect serious traffic jams be-cause all the intersections in the region arenetworked. Whenever traffic builds in any loca-tion, directions go out to vehicle navigationsystems in real time to take alternate routes.”

“What are your critters doing aboutdrainage and flooding?” asked the mayor.

“First of all, water demand is drying up rap-idly as people leave town, which will maximizethe waste water system’s capacity to absorbrunoff and minimize flooding,” I said. “Duringthe last few minutes, our agents identified aseries of pipeline connections and valvechanges that could carry much of the storm’swater through a series of filter installationsthat were recently activated to help replenishparts of the Edwards Aquifer north of San An-tonio. They are negotiating an acre-foot pricethat will cover the cost of the energy neededfor pumping. We estimate that this will reducepotential flooding by 76 percent.”

“And speaking of energy,” I added, “demandis sinking like a stone as the city evacuates. Weestimate that in approximately 3.5 hours wewill be able to ramp down several of the olderpower plants. The big off-shore wind parks willtake up any slack, and the huge amount of ex-tra power they will generate during the stormwill be captured in hardened building storagecenters, turned into hydrogen for later use, ordistributed to charge the batteries of parkedvehicles in San Antonio and Austin. As wespeak, software agents within our wind parksare communicating with their counterpartsfrom the National Weather Service and model-ing optimum propeller speeds and angles tominimize wind damage and maximize poweroutput…”

I went on an on. I could have told her theexact speed of every propeller in every windpark, the exact number of unoccupied parkingspaces in every high-rise garage in town, thenumber of certified emergency medics avail-able, hour by hour and sector by sector, for allof Harris County. I felt such a sense of exhilara-tion at having so much information in mindthat I almost forgot to look at the sky, whichhad turned blacker and even more menacing. Ifelt the building shake ever so slightly as thefirst of Rose’s gusts of wind struck the city.

“I’m impressed with you,” said Mayor D’An-gelo as she looked at me inquisitively. “You areso lifelike. Can it be that you are only theOEM’s interface?” Arthur F. Pease

82 Pictures of the Future | Spring 2011

Based on the storm’s predicted trajectory,OEM software agents had automatically initiat-ed dialog with their counterparts in city infra-structures, ranging from traffic managementto power generation, healthcare, security, andwastewater. The agents — highly-secure, au-tonomous expert entities — can fan outthrough an infrastructure such as the informa-tion systems of all the hospitals in the area, de-termine if each facility has adequate suppliesof everything from backup power to water,trigger local agents to order what’s missing,and report any problems back to OEM Central.

“What are those little critters up to?” askedMayor Celeste D’Angelo, as if she had knownwithout a doubt that I was thinking about theagents.

“You know that traffic management infra-structure we put in a few years ago?” I said.“They’ve gone through it, intersection by inter-section, even in outlying counties, checkingthat every battery is fully charged so that thesignals will continue to operate for days even ifthe power goes down. They’ve ordered in-stallers to service or replace any batteries thattest below par. Our automated maintenancevehicles are already at work. They’ve alsochecked the traffic communication systems inall city vehicles all the way out to Dallas andAustin — everything from ambulances and firetrucks to police cars, buses and service vehi-cles. We want to be absolutely certain that anytime an emergency vehicle approaches an in-tersection it gets a green signal…”

“And what happens if some crazy guy whodecides he wants to get out of town at the lastminute tries to run a light when a priority vehi-cle happens to be going by?” asked D’Angelo.

“Then an emergency signal from the inter-section controller will contact the offendingvehicle’s management system with enoughadvance notice to switch off its engine and ap-ply its brakes automatically so that it will stopsmoothly before it reaches the intersection,” Iexplained. “With your permission, we’ll activatethat system right now. Legal had concernsabout applying it. But now that we have a de-clared state of emergency…”

“Permission granted,” said D’Angelo. Wewere inside the OEM’s display, which createdthe illusion of flying above or through the cityfrom any desired angle, while being able to seeit in almost any useful level of detail. Althoughthe brunt of the storm was still at least a hun-dred miles away and it was midday, the skyhad started to turn black and was alreadysprinkled with flashes of distant lightning.

“How’s your evacuation plan shaping up?”asked D’Angelo.

“Everyone and everything within a hundredmiles of the coast has received a prioritizedmessage from our office,” I said. “I — I mean

Pictures of the Future | Spring 2011 85

Collective Intelligence | IT in Medicine

A medical center in Ohio is implementing a remarkable Siemens data mining product. Using matrix-like intelligence to extract key information from the data pouring into each patient’s elec-tronic health record, the product has already helped slash quality-of-care evaluation time by 50%.Soon, it could be doing this in near real time — setting the stage for on-the-spot decision support.

A MedCentral radiologist dictates a report. Once

completed, the report will become part of the

patient’s electronic record, where its content will be

automatically mined for quality-of-care information.

MedCentral Health System, a 351-bedmedical community based in Mansfield,

Ohio, is running like never before. The soft-ware that’s helping to make this possible is ahospital information system from Siemensknown as Soarian, an enterprise-wide solutionthat is designed to help synchronize informa-tion throughout the entire organization. Fromthe moment a patient is admitted, Soarian cre-ates an electronic health record that includeshis or her demographics and medical history,tracks diagnostics and treatment, includingsurgery, medications and links to medical im-ages, and aggregates associated clinical, finan-cial and operational information. As this dataaccumulates, it is critical to measure and ana-lyze the outcomes of interventions andprocesses.

Soarian Quality Measures (SQM) is aSiemens product with formidable intellectualmuscle — and bottom line relevance. It is de-

The Data Mining Engine that’sRevving up Healthcare

signed to analyze how well organizations ad-here to best practice in the care of patients.SQM also measures clinical practice againstthe most current clinical guidelines, while pro-viding outcome metrics for these practices.This is set to become a critical issue for hospi-tals across the U.S. because healthcare legisla-tion will tie a hospital’s reimbursement to itsability to verify that it has met quality-of-careguidelines. “This is in stark contrast to the oldfee-for-service model in which the more youdo, the more you get reimbursed,” explainsBharat Rao, PhD, Senior Director, KnowledgeSolutions at Siemens Healthcare and the in-ventor of the patented software platformknown as REMIND (Reliable Extraction andMeaningful Inference from Non-structuredData) that drives SQM. “In the new reimburse-ment environment the idea is that the firsttime you encounter a patient, you treat themright — because by doing so you know you are

going to reduce total costs in the long term”(Pictures of the Future, Spring 2008, p. 89).

MedCentral has implemented Soarian Qual-ity Measures, a remarkable data mining prod-uct, to help propel patient care to a stunninglevel of efficiency. Unlike conventional data ex-traction tools, which evaluate only structured,discrete data, such as lab results, MedCentralleverages SQM to analyze mountains of struc-tured data, but also unstructured data such asfree text from physician dictations, and turn itinto actionable information that can help im-prove processes and outcomes. Currently usedfor retrospective analysis, MedCentral’s use ofSQM capabilities is helping staff manage alarge volume of patient data and transform itinto actionable information.

Information Avalanche. How does SQM sup-port this goal? “A patient who spends a weekor less in the hospital typically winds up with

84 Pictures of the Future | Spring 2011

program called ‘Leverage Service@Siemens.’The program, which involves all major Siemensservice organizations, is designed to acceleratebusiness innovation by transforming data intoinformation and thus increasing its potentialbusiness value. “In this context, cRSP has be-come an important differentiator for us. In-deed, it has become a business-critical back-bone for the entire company, as it connectsover 135,000 systems, representing a collec-tive monthly data volume exceeding four Ter-abytes,” says Ganz.

Similarly, in the manufacturing area, CT hasdeveloped market-based software agent tech-nologies designed to intelligently and auto-matically manage the complexity of enormousamounts of highly heterogeneous process data

dictated physician notes. The idea is to analyzequality of care in terms of how well this funda-mental performance measure achieves clinicalguidelines. The software has already slashedquality-of-care evaluation time from threemonths to two weeks. Soon, it will be doingthis in near real time — setting the stage foron-the-spot decision support services.

Genes, Diseases, and Traffic. Like astro-nauts venturing into deeper and deeper space,collective intelligence re-searchers are exploringsystems that fan outthrough the Internet uni-verse to collect and com-pare data and extrapolate

Cities are another major area in which col-lective intelligence could make a world of dif-ference. And one of the most formidable chal-lenges confronted by all cities is traffic. In thisregard, Siemens has demonstrated that it canharness the microsecond-by-microsecond dataexchanges between tomorrow’s vehicles andthe next generation of traffic-light controllersto produce actionable information that trans-lates into a range of safety-enhancing and en-ergy-saving services. In Houston, Texas, for in-

stance, a pilot program along these lines couldlead to fully networked traffic management(see page 91).

Knowledge Dividend. As amazing, auspi-cious and complex as collective intelligencetechnologies are, what may be even more of achallenge than developing and implementingthem is to figure out how, exactly, to turnthem into profit. According to Prof. HermannRequardt, CEO of the company’s HealthcareSector, the first step on that road is clear: “Iconsider collective intelligence as a way ofachieving a conglomerate premium. It will playa key role in helping us to merge our deep do-main knowledge in healthcare, energy, and in-dustry with information technology know-how. Considering the fact that 17,000 of our30,000 R&D scientists and engineers are in-volved in software development — more thanalmost any other company — we are well posi-tioned to exploit collective intelligence in sucha way as to get more out of the entire enter-prise than we can get out of the sum of itsbusiness units.”

The question is: Does Siemens possess theIT skills to alchemize its rapidly-expanding datauniverse into a universe of profitable services?“My prediction,” says Requardt, “is that in orderto harness our true potential we will have tolearn to think like an IT company in some are-nas, and we will have to partner with IT com-panies in others.” While the precise trajectoryfor achieving Siemens’ knowledge dividend re-mains to be determined, the mandate for em-barking on such a journey is unambiguous.Says Dr. Reinhold Achatz, head of Siemens Cor-porate Research and Technologies, “I think themodel of the future will be that those compa-nies that are able to generate knowledge fromdata and put it to work in an optimized waywill beat those that are not able to do so.”

Arthur F. Pease

“In five years the amount of data gener-ated by machines will outpace theamount generated by all human users.”

exchanged between suppliers and manufac-turers in automotive supply networks (seepage 96). In much the same way that softwarewithin a turbine processes large amounts of in-formation to discover ways of improving effi-ciency, auto industry software agents will sooncollaborate in large-scale virtual markets to op-timize the entire planning, order managementand delivery processes, thus enhancing vehiclepersonalization and accelerating vehicle deliv-ery to the customer.

Collective intelligence is also harnessing theimmense quantities of data generated by hos-pitals (see page 85). For instance, at MedCen-tral Health System, based in Mansfield, Ohio,Siemens’ Soarian software is using matrix-likeintelligence to extract key information fromthe vast amounts of data pouring into each pa-tient’s electronic medical record from sourcessuch as lab tests, diagnostic exams, and even

knowledge from it (see Weikum interview,page 112). For instance, in the context of theEuropean Union’s “Large Knowledge Collider”(LarKC http://www.larkc.eu/) project, SiemensCorporate Technology researchers in Munichunder the direction of Dr. Volker Tresp have de-veloped a search technology that finds and ex-tracts content from papers that refer to genes.“It then draws a kind of graphic cloud of genesand their relationships to diseases,” explainsTresp.

Following training, the system’s algorithms,which use semantics to uncover meaning, ana-lyzed 40,000 abstracts and discovered some4,800 relationships between genes and dis-eases. “One fascinating result is that we cannow use machine learning to predict new po-tential relationships that no one had thoughtof before such as one we discovered betweena gene and Alzheimer’s disease,” says Tresp.

Explosion of the Data Universe

Amount of stored data in bytes (logarithmic scale)

19861 exabyte

(1018 bytes)

10 exabytes

100 exabytes

1 zettabyte (1021 bytes)

35 zettabytes

2020: The Internetof things

2010: Web 2.0 and mobile terminals

2006: More than one million articles in Wikipedia

88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 2020

Other 3%

Music cassettes 12%

Photographs (negatives) 5%Photographs(paper prints) 8%

Video cassettes 58%

Vinyl LPs 14%

Hard disks 42%

Servers 8%

Other 6%Video cassettes 6%

CDs and Minidiscs 6%

DVDs and Blue-Rays 21%Digital tapes 11%

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Pictures of the Future | Spring 2011 87

tion for a patient, Soarian automatically checksall those factors. That is happening right here,right now.” By June, 2011, the medical centerexpects that 100 percent of its physicians willbe placing their medication orders throughcomputerized physician order entry.

Already, CPOE is helping the provider to re-duce errors and improve efficiency. “In thepast, it was hard enough to even read what adoctor wrote down,” notes Patterson. “Ascrawled order would go to a clerk. Then itwould be validated by a nurse, and finally themedication would be requisitioned. Each stepopened the door to potential clerical errors,and the entire process could easily take a cou-ple of hours. Now, a physician makes the orderdirectly in the system, and the medication isover to the patient literally within minutes.That can make a world of difference for a pa-tient who is experiencing severe pain.”

Eagle-Eyed Expert. And that’s just the begin-ning. Fred Crowgey, Director of Project ExpertCare, which covers the Soarian implementa-tion project at MedCentral, expects the soft-ware to soon be able to cross-reference thecenter’s entire patient population data. “It will

allow us to see all the salient elements fromthe database,” he says.

Furthermore, Soarian Clinicals will be ableto assist with more complex questions. For in-stance, suppose a cardiologist performing anechocardiogram test discovers that her pa-tient’s ejection fraction — the fraction of bloodpumped out of the heart in a single beat — hasdropped below 40 percent. Is this an anomalyor has it happened before? Here, for instance,Soarian would comb the entire patient recordand highlight any evidence of an abnormallylow ejection fraction.

“Under these circumstances, if it uncoveredprevious instances of low EF, the doctor wouldnormally place an order for an angiotensinconverting enzyme (ACE) inhibitor, which isdesigned to improve EF,” explains Yeater. “Butsuppose that other tests had found that the pa-tient might be suffering from chronic renal dis-ease — a condition that is a contraindicationfor the use of ACE inhibitors. Then the soft-ware would point this out to the cardiologist,and possibly suggest another class of medica-tion. So Soarian will look for elements of thiskind in the documentation, thus helping to en-sure optimized management.”

Data entered and stored in Soarian Clinicalscan be used not only to detect quality-of-careerrors in processes, but also among people.For instance, MedCentral chose to provide 250physicians with report cards — at first anony-mously, and then in an openly competitivemanner. The reports were generated usingdata available in Soarian that was then used torepresent color-coded red (bad), yellow (not sogood), and green (good) outcomes. “Duringthe anonymous phase, overall quality resultsremained the same,” recalls Patterson. “Butwhen we opened up the data and our doctorsknew their colleagues could see their results,competitive behavior really kicked in. The re-sults started looking better and better. Sincethe software documents everything, doctorscould check through reports and see why pa-tient X came back. They have found that theycan learn and improve from this information.Acceptance of the system has been total.” Inaddition to the fact that the software can stim-ulate health professionals to excel, much of itssuccess is the result of one very simple fact: It’seasy to use. “The software is intuitive,” saysYeater. “After about 35 minutes people havefigured it out.” Arthur F. Pease

At MedCentral (right), Siemens software measures and analyzes the outcomes of interventions such as angiography exams (left) and other procedures.

Thanks to advanced software, physicians’ orders are entered directly into the system, thus speeding delivery of medications to patients and reducing errors.

86 Pictures of the Future | Spring 2011

the digital equivalent of around 200 pages ofdocumentation,” says MedCentral’s Chief Med-ical Information Officer Michael Patterson, MD,who is also a practicing nephrologist. In a Soar-ian environment such as MedCentral, informa-tion pours into the patient’s electronic healthrecord from a wide variety of sources. Typically,it includes results from the lab, dictated notesfrom one or more radiologists, entries fromnurses’ stations, physicians’ orders for medica-tions, and the pharmacy.

All of this can wind up being a bit too muchof a good thing. Digital healthcare producessuch immense quantities of data that some es-sential part of the quality-of-care process mayfall between the cracks. Yet, even with elec-tronic files, it is extremely time consuming andinefficient for people to analyze content to de-termine if quality guidelines have been met.Nevertheless, in the near future, this will haveto be done in order to obtain reimbursementfrom government healthcare programs.

And that’s where SQM fits in. “SQM uses al-gorithms based on expert knowledge and se-mantic reasoning to go through all these dif-ferent systems, including the content ofdictated notes. It gathers the data, extracts theinformation that is relevant, and combines thiswith medical knowledge standards to answerone key question: Did the patient receive thequality of care that is required?” explains Pat-terson. “I am not aware of any other productthat can read and interpret that kind of data.”

Adds Rao, “On the one hand, you have anobservational record of the patient from clini-cians, and on the other you have a programthat contains the latest federally-mandatedguidelines for management of pneumonia,acute myocardial infarction, heart failure, andthe Surgical Care Improvement Project (SCIP).SQM takes these two worlds, combines them,and produces actionable information, such as‘you did this, you did not do that, you met thismeasure, you did not meet that measure.’ Andit does this automatically. It does this on the in-dividual patient level and on the level of a hos-

pital’s entire patient population in such a waythat the data can be sliced and diced to exam-ine quality of care based on objective metrics.”

“Historically, collecting this data was a hugejob,” says Janene Yeater, Vice President of Qual-ity and Planning at MedCentral. She explainsthat in the past, nurses had to find the data, en-ter it and submit it to a system. The data wouldthen go to the quality improvement depart-ment, where it would be evaluated. “All of thiscould easily take three or four months after apatient was discharged,” she says. “But sincethe introduction of SQM, we’ve been able toreduce the time it takes to assemble the datato about two weeks, while shifting our focusfrom gathering information to analyzing it.”

Heading for Real-Time Error Detection. Atechnology that could potentially shavemonths from a process sounds great. But that’snot enough. Soarian Quality Measures’ currenttwo-week abstraction timelag is set to be cut to nearzero. Before that can hap-pen, however, processquestions have to be ad-dressed. “SQM could oper-ate in real time right now,”says Rao. “But the issue isto refine it to the point that it presents theright information exactly when it’s needed.” Inview of this, “MedCentral expects to ramp upSQM to real time operation within a year ortwo,” says Patterson. “It will thus evolve frombeing a retrospective quality measurementsystem to being a concurrent quality improve-ment system. That will open up amazing newpossibilities.”

What’s next for Siemens quality reportingas it does this? For one thing, its ability to drawfrom hundreds of thousands of case historiesand results could vastly accelerate the arduousdetective work performed by physicians everyday as they seek to zero in on the right diagno-sis. “I’m the first to admit that physicians’ workis often grueling, and that we are not perfect,”

says Patterson. “But with Siemens softwaredoctors may in the future be able to simply en-ter symptoms. The system would then com-pare that information with data collected overmultiple occurrences, and help to drive the fi-nal diagnosis much faster and more accuratelythan is now possible. That would be a hugehelp.”

Yeater goes even further. She foresees thetechnology evolving to a predictive stage. “Ithink Soarian [Quality Measures] will eventuallybe used to identify which patients are at risk forcertain kinds of events. So the vision is that wewill be moving from today, where we are work-ing retroactively, to real time in the next coupleof years, to a predictive-preventive kind of carefurther down the line. And as we do that we willbe saving lives, saving money, and making theentire healthcare system far more efficient.”

What such a transition can mean in practi-cal terms is made clear considering the use of a

system such as Soarian Clinicals with its com-puterized physician order entry (CPOE) capa-bilities. Soarian with CPOE allows healthcareproviders to enter their medical orders directlyinto the patient’s electronic record. The tech-nology then leverages clinical conflict screen-ing of medication orders to compare a new or-der for a medication to the patient’s record,checking for information such as allergies orpreviously-documented reactions to the med-ication and for possible drug-drug interactions.It then notifies the physician of any possibleproblems. “When I used to order medicationsin the past, I would have to keep all thesethings in mind,” says Patterson. “Now, thanksto our database, I have support for my deci-sion-making process. When I order a medica-

The vision is that we will move fromworking retroactively, to real time, topredictive-preventive care.

Based on Siemens technology, MedCentral’s highly automated laboratory automatically extracts information from samples and feeds it into electronic patient files.

Pictures of the Future | Spring 2011 89

Collective Intelligence | Mobile Medics

In the southern Indian state of Tamil Nadu, Siemens and Christian Medical College are testing the use of cell phones to provide healthcare in rural areas. The phones transfer patients’ medicaldata to hospitals where analytical software helps to focus resources by tracking disease trends.

In rural India, specially trained healthcare

personnel collect villagers’ medical data and

forward it to mobile physicians via smartphone.

Their goal is to improve medical treatment and

reduce the high rate of infant mortality.

The bus arrived on time today. Once amonth, remote areas in Tamil Nadu, India’s

southernmost state, are visited by a doctor’soffice on wheels operated by the ChristianMedical College (CMC) in the city of Vellore.Crowds of people flock from surrounding vil-lages to consult their doctors or have bloodsamples taken. On these occasions the“ASHAs” make their appearance too. ASHAs, orAccredited Social Healthcare Activists, arewomen who volunteer to provide health edu-cation in villages, collect the residents’ healthdata, and support pregnant women before andafter they give birth.

The process of using ASHAs and bringingdoctors to villages in medical buses originatedwith the “National Rural Health Mission2005–2012” initiative, which was launched bythe Indian government in 2005. The programwas intended to improve healthcare for ruralpopulations. The Indian subcontinent suffersnot only from a severe shortage of physicians— there is a deficit of about 600,000 doctors

Tracking Illnesses in India

countrywide — but also from a large gap be-tween the urban and rural populations regard-ing the availability of health care. For every100,000 residents, there were about 4.48 hos-pitals in urban areas and 0.77 in rural areas in2005. What’s more, in 2010 there were sixtimes as many physicians in cities as in thecountryside, where about 70 percent of all In-dians live.

Prior to this health care initiative, many In-dians in the countryside had hardly any con-tact with modern Western medicine. Instead,they relied on traditional treatments known bythe acronym AYUSH — Ayurveda, yoga, Unani(an Arabic counterpart of Ayurveda), Siddha(southern Indian naturopathy), and homeopa-thy — which are practiced by AYUSH doctorstrained at universities. The ASHAs now act aslinks between villagers and the doctors in hos-pitals. Since a primary goal of the initiative isto lower the child mortality rate, only womenare used as ASHAs. ASHAs go from house tohouse at regular intervals and inquire about ill-

nesses and the health of pregnant women. To-day, they still record all the information theyobtain in a book. However, a paper-based sys-tem of this kind may be incompatible with theinformation storage media used at hospitals,which in some cases already maintain elec-tronic patient records. ASHAs also have to care-fully protect their notes from damage.

Mobile Healthcare. Three years ago, Dhan-dapany Raghavan, who heads Siemens Health-care in India, had the idea of letting ASHAsrecord medical data via cell phones. “We soonrealized that we need a competent and experi-enced partner for this, and we’re proud to beworking with the Christian Medical College,”says Dr. Zubin Varghese of Siemens CorporateTechnology (CT) in the Indian city of Banga-lore. CMC has been active in this part of Indiafor over 50 years and is very familiar with localconditions. The college has helped Siemens CTto develop a pilot project called the “Communi-ty Health Information System” (CHIS), which

has already been tested in some villages. “Dur-ing the first test phase, ASHAs tried out the cellphones,” says Prof. George Kuryan, head of theCommunity Health Department at CMC in Vel-lore. “They’re very excited about using themand the possibilities offered by the new tech-nology.” After the testing phase, 83 villageswith a total population of about 100,000 peo-ple are expected to take part in the CHIS proj-ect.

An ASHA starts her work by downloadingvillagers’ up-to-date demographic data, includ-ing some health information from a hospitalserver, to her smartphone. This tells her whatshe should look out for when examining par-ticular villagers. Later, after she has recordedall the data from a village, she transfers it viathe mobile communications network to thehospital server, or she can upload the data to alaptop the doctors have brought with them inthe bus. “In both cases, doctors first have tocheck that the data is correct before it’s stored

laypersons, such as the ASHAs, provide reliableresults, and are robust enough to operate de-pendably in adverse conditions. The top priori-ty in this regard is to provide support for preg-nant women. The devicecurrently at the most ad-vanced stage of develop-ment is the Fetal Heart RateMonitor (see Pictures of theFuture, Fall 2010, p. 44 and p. 56), a sort ofstethoscope that automati-cally measures and displays the heart rate ofan unborn child. Production of this device willsoon begin at a Siemens plant in Goa. After thetest phase of the project has been completed,the ASHAs in 83 villages in Tamil Nadu will beequipped with cell phones and, later on, withFetal Heart Rate Monitors.

In the case of premature births, it is alsocommon to monitor not just the heart and res-piratory rates but also blood oxygenation. With

ing countries like India,” says Varghese. “Sincewe need a great quantity of devices for ourlarge population, we have to supply them atthe lowest possible price. These devices also

have to be as easy as possible to use and theymust be virtually maintenance-free.”

Another challenge faced by Indian society isinfectious diseases. India accounts for a fifth ofthe world’s cases of tuberculosis — and a largeproportion of these occur in rural areas. Thebiggest problem in this context is contaminat-ed water, which is also partly to blame for thehigh child mortality rate: Every day, over 1,000children in India die of diarrheal illnesses.

Six times as many physicians prac-tice in the cities as in the country,where 70 percent of Indians live.

88 Pictures of the Future | Spring 2011

on the server. This is for quality control,” saysVarghese. The data transferred to the server isincluded directly in patient records and under-goes statistical analysis. All the software usedin the process, from the cell phone to the lap-top, was developed by Siemens CorporateTechnology.

One of the ASHAs’ focus areas is on sup-porting women during pregnancy, preparingfor birth, and providing postnatal and postpar-tum care. Most women in India give birth athome, usually under poor hygienic conditions.According to the World Health Organization,37 of every 1,000 Indian newborns died withinthe first four weeks of life in 2008. By compari-son, Germany had a mortality rate of three in1,000 newborns that year. After a delivery, anASHA therefore records data such as the baby’sweight and heart rate. If an emergency occurs,she can call a doctor on her cell phone.

Siemens CT India also hopes to provide bet-ter support to doctors by developing inexpen-sive medical devices that are usable by trained

this in mind, CT India is developing a portabledevice for ASHAs that measures respirationand a pulse oximeter, which uses sensors tomeasure the oxygen saturation of arterialblood after the skin is exposed to infraredlight.

Technology for Emerging Economies. In-creasingly, the typical diseases of modern civi-lization are spreading in India. For instance,there are already over 40 million diabetics onthe subcontinent, and each year about twomillion people suffer a heart attack. Indian au-thorities estimate that by 2020 over seven mil-lion Indians will die of chronic illnesses eachyear. The reasons for this include populationgrowth as well as the country’s rising prosperi-ty. CT developments are therefore also focus-ing on simple devices for investigating cardio-vascular illnesses, such as mobile ECG devices.Also in planning are easy-to-use systems for re-mote patient monitoring. “These devices we’redeveloping are tailored to the needs of emerg-

ASHAs therefore keep a record of all cases ofdiarrhea in their villages. Using analytical soft-ware, CT researchers can evaluate the data-base of its project partner in the hospital andpinpoint those villages in which cases of diar-rhea occur very frequently. Now that testshave been completed, the first mobile watertreatment systems from Siemens Water Tech-nology will soon be delivered to those villagesmost affected by diarrheal illnesses.

For Dr. Varghese it is already clear that theCHIS project is a successful model that can becarried over to other Indian states and to othercountries. In its next phase, the project couldbe extended to a million people in the neigh-boring state of Andhra Pradesh. But as Vargh-ese knows, there is still a long way to go beforethat happens.

Annapurna Verma, has just finished trans-ferring her data from a cell phone to a laptop.She and her fellow ASHAs are done with theirexaminations for the day, and the bus startsmoving again. Michael Lang

Pictures of the Future | Spring 2011 91

Collective Intelligence | Traffic Systems

Houston is installing systems at intersections that will allow traffic lights and vehicles to communicate with one another in real time. Based on a far-sighted traffic management programbeing developed by the U.S. Department of Transportation, these steps could set the stage for newservices based on oceans of vehicle-generated data that would optimize traffic flows, accelerateemergency response, reduce collisions, and minimize noise and pollution.

Ambulances will be among the first users of

a new traffic light management technology that

responds dynamically to the number and level of

priority of vehicles approaching an intersection .

Houston, Texas. A major storm is approach-ing. Vast areas are expected to be flood-

ed. Evacuation measures are in full swing. Yettraffic is streaming out of the city in an evenly-distributed pattern under a menacing gray-green sky. In a haze of red and blue lights, theoccasional ambulance or police car flashes by.As if by magic, the traffic lights at intersectionsturn green each time an emergency vehicle ap-proaches. Everything moves according to plan.No one wants to revisit the 2008 nightmarethat was Hurricane Ike.

Can a major metropolitan area be evacuat-ed as smoothly as this scenario suggests? Har-ris County, a 4,500 square-kilometer (1,700square miles) area that includes greater Hous-ton and, with over four million residents, is thethird most populous county in the U.S., is im-

Green Light for Vehicle-to-Infrastructure Communications

plementing a pilot plan that may set the stagefor a revolutionary way of managing traffic notonly during emergencies in southeast Texas,but year round throughout the United States.

The plan makes use of technologies nowbeing developed as part of the United StatesDepartment of Transportation’s (DOT) Intel-liDriveTM program, a research initiative focusedon the creation of safe, interoperable connec-tivity among all types of vehicles, the trafficmanagement infrastructure, and mobile de-vices. And Siemens, which is the market leaderin traffic management technology in the U.S.and a major supplier to the world automobileindustry, is a key player.

During the plan’s first stage, which has al-ready been largely implemented, Siemens Mo-bility Division’s Intelligent Traffic Solutions

(ITS) business in Austin, Texas is equipping ap-proximately 400 intersections throughout Har-ris County with a simple, inexpensive controlsystem that dynamically alters traffic light tim-ing based on an algorithm that estimates thenumber of vehicles approaching an intersec-tion at any given moment. To do so, the tech-nology uses a Linux-based computer, an an-tenna and a wireless radio reader card to tapthe anonymous addresses of smartphones innearby vehicles.

“A study in which our pilot system was in-stalled in the same boxes that house toll tagreaders in Houston produced basically identi-cal travel time estimates — without any of theexpensive tolling equipment,” says SiemensITS Innovations Manager David Miller. “It takesonly a few cars with smartphones on standby

90 Pictures of the Future | Spring 2011

Collective Intelligence | Interview

Thomas W. Maloneis the Patrick J. McGovernProfessor of Management at the MIT Sloan School ofManagement and thefounding director of the MIT Center for Collective Intelligence. He was also the founding director of theMIT Center for Coordination Science. Professor Maloneteaches classes on leadership and informationtechnology; has publishedover 75 articles, researchpapers, and book chapters;and is an inventor with 11patents. His background includes a Ph.D. and twomaster’s degrees from Stanford University, a B.A.from Rice University, and de-grees in applied mathemat-ics, engineering-economicsystems, and psychology.

New Models for Human-Machine Collaboration

What’s the promise of collective intelligence (CI)?Malone: The idea is that there are things thatare very easy for humans to do and very hardfor computers to do, and vice versa. So thequestion that CI asks is: “How can people andcomputers work together to take advantage ofwhat each does best?” That’s the promise. Re-search shows that even simple computer algo-rithms can often do a better job of predictingmany things than human experts can —things like estimating sales, economic trends,and election results. On the other hand, hu-mans are much better at identifying certainqualitative factors that can influence predic-tions.

Have you performed experiments alongthese lines?Malone: Yes. We are investigating “predictionmarkets” where participants can buy and sellpredictions about future events such as prod-uct sales. In our experiments, we let both hu-mans and software agents predict the nextplays in an American football game. We foundthat the agents were significantly more accu-rate than the humans. But we also found thathumans and agents together were more accu-rate than either alone. The next step will be tobuild prediction economies. These will includeone or more prediction markets — marketsfor information relevant to an event, and mar-kets for human and machine-based servicesthat can help participants make more accuratepredictions.

There are other CI application areas thatoffer higher probabilities of success. Forinstance, your web site refers to the pos-sibility of determining whether a growthon someone’s skin is cancerous or not… Malone: That is a project we would like to do.The idea is that the knowledge needed to re-solve the question does not necessarily haveto reside in the head of the person standingnext to the patient. My guess is that if you hadexcellent images of the growth that could betransmitted anywhere, and if you had non-physicians who classified such images all daylong, then I believe these non-physicianscould be — collectively — more accurate thana dermatologist who sees only a dozen poten-tially cancerous growths per week. Eventually,

this very specialized task may be accomplishedby an algorithm. But on the way to that goal,we may see humans and machines workingon the problem simultaneously.

Are any companies putting this kind ofnetworking into practice?Malone: Yes. For instance, Amazon Mechani-cal Turk — a crowd-sourcing marketplace onthe Internet — is designed to help softwaredevelopers build human intelligence into theirapplications. Programmers can farm out spe-cialized tasks to people, and they can do so inthe middle of programs. If, for example, youare writing a program to create a travel direc-tory, you can include a sub-routine that askspeople — for a few pennies per task — to readweb sites and find hotel phone numbers.

What implications does this problem-solving model have for business?Malone: One possibility is that much of thework that now gets done inside big companieswill be done instead by temporary networks ofpeople and computers. Compensation willrange from large sums for solving complexproblems to micropayments for things likehelping a camera at a loading dock interpretan image when something unusual occurs.There might be on-line lists of situationswhere human attention is needed, and peoplecould look for the highest paid tasks they arecapable of doing.

Can organizations improve their IQ by applying CI to their operations?Malone: We have recently done some workdesigned to measure organizational IQ. Wegave several small groups a number of tasksand looked at the factor analysis of how theyperformed. What we found was that, just as isthe case with individuals, there is a single sta-tistical factor that predicts the group’s per-formance on a wide range of tasks. It is con-ceivable that you could do this at the level ofan entire organization. It would be fascinating,for instance, to discover what Siemens’ IQ isand to investigate how we could boost it. Webelieve that it is eminently possible to changegroup intelligence. That could have tremen-dous implications for companies, universities,and governments.

Interview conducted by Arthur F. Pease.

Pictures of the Future | Spring 2011 93

partment of Transportation demonstrated afully-functional DSRC system, including road-side traffic signal controller, software, wirelessgear in the car, and the message set — inshort, all of the vehicle-to-infrastructure tech-nology — from Siemens. The signal controllerconstantly compared the approach distancebetween a BMW 7-Series and the traffic signal.“As we approached the intersection,” recallsMiller, “we could see the traffic signal repre-sented on the dashboard in a countdown for-mat: ‘I’m green, but in five, four, three, two,one seconds I’ll be red.’” Because the car andthe traffic light timing system were communi-cating in real time, Miller explains, the carknew it could not go through the light. As a re-sult, it shut off its engine at the optimal mo-ment for saving energy and used regenerativebraking to recharge the battery, while the bat-tery was used to keep cockpit systems running.“In addition,” says Miller, “the traffic signal con-trolled the cabin temperature. It knew howlong the wait would be, so it regulated power-hungry systems accordingly. Then, two sec-onds before the light turned green, it switchedon the engine.”

Traffic Lights that Talk to Your Car. Trafficlights that not only talk to your car, but opti-mize its functions? The technology used inPalm Desert has been verified to result in up toa 15 percent improvement in fuel savings onmanual-shift BMW vehicles, which automati-cally turn off their engines while the clutch isdepressed.

But the advantages don’t stop there. Thou-sands of people are killed or seriously injuredeach year in so-called “T-bone crashes” when acar runs a red light and plows into another ve-hicle. But if intersection-to-vehicle communi-cation becomes a standard feature, such acci-dents would practically disappear. “If, for

instance, a light is about to turn red and a caris approaching it at high speed, tomorrow’s in-telligent intersection will respond in one oftwo ways,” says Peebles. “It will either force thecar to stop, or it can hold the light green — asit would for an emergency vehicle — and allowthe violator to go by.”

Sound like Big Brother? Maybe. But as Pee-bles points out, “It’s great to know that yourkids are going to get to school more safely.And red light management is one of the manyways that IntelliDrive and Siemens technologywill support that.” By the same token, this tech-nology — when networked throughout an ur-ban area — can ensurethat priority vehicles getthrough in the shortesttime and can take theshortest routes. In thiscase, the vehicle-to-infra-structure system will knowwhich route an ambu-lance, police car or fire truck, for instance, willbe taking, and will clear traffic along theway in advance — something that’s safer foreveryone, according to Peebles, “because thereare lots of emergency vehicle-related acci-dents.”

On a more prosaic level, the technologycould go a long way toward keeping buses onschedule because the infrastructure will knowif a bus is running late and will give it moregreen lights, if needed, to keep it on schedule.This would, in all probability, help to improveridership. But one of the biggest selling pointsof IntelliDrive technology — and a possible sig-nificant source of revenue for Siemens — iswhat it means for the individual motorist. “Let’ssay there are no emergency vehicles going by,the busses are on schedule, and you arealone,” says Miller. “If your car is equipped withthe right device, the light will turn green just

for you!” And of course, the same goes forpedestrians and cyclists carrying an Intel-liDrive-equipped device. They will have theadded advantage of becoming electronicallyvisible to IntelliDrive-equipped vehicles — yetanother major safety advantage.

Where will all of this take us? “I think this isgoing to happen quickly,” says Miller. “Oncethe onboard devices become available and theaverage driver sees that he or she can turn thelight green, the technology will take off. It willmake driving safer. It will save fuel. And withsoftware upgrades it could lead to attractivenew services such as reserving parking based

on time-of-day and event-based variable pric-ing.”

Miller also foresees an effect on trafficgroup dynamics. “As soon as cars start to havethe light-changing feature, they will start toaggregate because many vehicle navigationsystems will see at the same time that a specif-ic route is faster than another. And this will be-come a self-fulfilling prophecy because when alight sees a platoon of vehicles coming its wayit will automatically turn green. That could bethe first step toward automated driving. In oth-er words, the system tells the cars what route itthinks is best, the cars form up and take theroute, and they affect the lights. Eventually,you’ll be able to let go of the wheel!” Long be-fore that happens, however, IntelliDrive tech-nologies will be helping cities like Houston re-spond in the safest possible way to tomorrow’sstorms. Arthur F. Pease

“When a light sees a platoon of vehicles coming its way it will automatically turn green.”

Real-time data exchanges between vehicles and traffic light control systems will improve traffic flow, increase safety, and cut pollution and noise.

92 Pictures of the Future | Spring 2011

to produce highly accurate estimates of vehicledensities and speeds.”

The data from phones is aggregated using aunique application funded by the USDOT anddeveloped by the Texas Transportation Insti-tute at Texas A&M University that runs on soft-ware developed by Siemens Corporate Tech-nology in Princeton, New Jersey. Siemenssignal controllers at intersections throughoutthe county process the resulting information toproduce highly-accurate real-time estimates ofthe number of vehicles on the road and theirspeeds, all of which is mapped onto a geo-graphical database accessible to drivers viasmartphone. During an evacuation, this sys-tem would allow each driver to choose a routewith the shortest travel time, thus conservingfuel, which can quickly become scarce underemergency conditions, and effectively dispers-ing traffic instead of concentrating it on con-gested evacuation routes.

What’s more, Siemens’ traffic signal con-trollers throughout much of Harris Countyhave been networked via fiber optic cables andconnected to Siemens servers and software atHouston’s Transtar emergency managementcenter. “Taken to an extreme, the traffic pat-terns for the entire city could be optimizedwith this technology, or tailored to meet theunique needs of an emergency. This is a classicexample of what we call collective intelligence— the aggregation of massive amounts of datato produce information that can drive newservices,” says Justinian Rosca, who leads theproject’s software integration team in Prince-ton and, together with Miller, has filed a num-ber of related patents.

Priority Treatment for First Responders.What’s next? Assuming it receives funding,Harris County plans to outfit its roughly 2000public vehicles — everything from ambulances

and police cars to fire trucks and buses — withGPS radio devices that communicate with thenewly-installed intersection control technolo-gy using a standard frequency. “One of the les-sons learned from Hurricane Ike was that dif-ferent districts in Houston had differentcommunications equipment that was not in-teroperable,” says Miller. “Clearly, with interop-erable equipment, comprehensive evacuationcoordination would be improved.” Setting thestage for accomplishing this is the recentadoption by the U.S. Federal CommunicationsCommission of a standard in the 5.9 GHz bandfor high-speed vehicle-to-vehicle and vehicle-to-infrastructure commu-nication as part of the In-telliDrive program.

Known as DedicatedShort Range Communica-tion (DSRC), this develop-ment will make it possibleto produce standardizedonboard equipment for emergency vehicles.“The equipment has a range that exceeds aquarter mile (400 meters). It will send its GPSlocation via DSRC to an application in an inter-section controller indicating that the approach-ing vehicle should receive priority,” explainsMiller. “The application is able to read ap-proach direction and speed, allowing the sig-nal timing to initiate a green light regardless ofthe speed of the approaching emergency vehi-cle.” The solution will not only ensure that firstresponder vehicles have interoperable commu-nications with the fixed infrastructure, but isexpected to cut travel time for such vehicleswhile reducing the risk of collisions at intersec-tions. Siemens is now developing such a de-vice for research purposes for the DOT. If ap-proved, it will enter a DOT “qualified productslist” for extensive testing and eventually headfor commercialization.

Primed for ITS Technologies. After the de-struction caused by Hurricane Ike, it’s easy tounderstand why Houston would want to do itsbest to prepare for the next big emergency.But what’s driving the U.S. Department ofTransportation to embrace the IntelliDrive con-cept? “For the last 60 years, our whole philoso-phy in the U.S. has been ‘build more roads,’”says Christy Peebles, who heads Siemens’Austin ITS operations. “Now, American citiesare out of space and are under pressure to re-duce pollution, noise, and, above all, improvesafety. So all of the pieces are coming together.The U.S. is therefore primed for ITS technolo-

gies.” She explains that car-to-car data links de-signed to automatically track frontal and rearproximity, for instance, are already helping toavoid accidents in situations where humanscannot respond with sufficient speed. “But themissing piece of the puzzle is vehicle-to-infra-structure communication,” she says. “Thatholds the potential for radically reducing inter-section collisions, optimizing traffic flows, andimproving fuel economy. The car manufactur-ers want it because they expect its safety fea-tures to generate demand. And they are push-ing for it through the Department ofTransportation.”

And Siemens is in an excellent position toprovide what’s needed. For instance, in an Oc-tober, 2009 field trial in Palm Desert, Califor-nia, Siemens (supported by Corporate Technol-ogy teams in Princeton, New Jersey andVienna, Austria), BMW and the California De-

Vehicle-to-intersection communication holds the potentialfor radically reducing collisions.

Siemens is now developing an onboard device for emergency vehicles that will trigger tomorrow’s intersection controllers to turn traffic lights green.

Pictures of the Future | Spring 2011 95

Collective Intelligence | City Cockpit

Siemens’ City Cockpit supports better and faster decision-making by consolidating information from a wide range of administrative systems. Mayors will now be able to keep track of multiple processes that drive their cities in real time.

Siemens’ City Cockpit in Singapore demonstrates

how today’s information systems make it possible to

have an overview of many city activities in real time.

It provides city officials with fast and simple access

to any information they need.

Mayor S. enjoys the ride to his office thismorning. He takes the bus as he always

does — part of a campaign to persuade citi-zens to use public transportation. He’s pleasedto see that ridership is up compared to a yearago. Back then, a downtown toll was intro-duced to reduce rush-hour traffic congestion,and it seems to be having the desired effect.

When he gets to his desk, the Mayor checksto see whether the impression he received onthe bus is borne out by facts. In his City Cockpithe can look up how many people have traveledto work this morning by bus or rail and howsmoothly the traffic flowed. Alongside the cur-rent statistics and graphic displays he sees ayellow light that tells him that his new trafficplan still is not working smoothly in some partsof the city. He’ll need to discuss this problemwith his traffic planners.

Mayor S. can use the City Cockpit to keephimself informed not only about the currenttraffic situation but also about many other as-pects of city life. Green lights tell him thateverything is going very well for the police, the

Real-Time Government

fire department, and the sanitation services.The light for the public offices is yellow and forthe finance department it’s red. So there’s agood reason why the whole morning has beenreserved for budget discussions.

Singapore’s Living Lab. This vision couldsoon become a reality, because a prototype ofthe City Cockpit already exists — at Siemens inSingapore. Here, state-of-the-art informationand communication technology (ICT) enablesthe mayor and other decision-makers to trackand analyze processes in their city in real time.All of the important information flows into acentral system that processes the data for con-venient display and indicates to what extentspecified objectives are being met.

The computer on whose user interface allthe data of a fictitious city converge and aredisplayed is located in Siemens’ “City of the Fu-ture,“ a demonstration center for future solu-tions that Siemens established two years agoin Singapore with support from the govern-ment of the city-state. “The City of the Future

demonstrates how ICT can be useful in master-ing the challenges that are facing cities today,”says Klaus Heidinger, who is in charge of SmartEco Cities at Siemens Corporate Technology(CT). “Singapore is an excellent location for thisCompetence Center because its government iswilling to serve as a ‘living lab’ for new admin-istrative methods.” (see Pictures of the Future,Fall 2010, p. 44)

Municipal governments from all over theworld are sending delegations to Singapore inorder to learn from the city’s experiences.More than 200 groups have already visited theCity of the Future in order to learn throughmultimedia presentations and from interactiveconsoles how clever networking of informa-tion can lay the foundations for better andfaster decision-making.

“The ICT revolution is opening up entirelynew opportunities for solving problems — forinstance, in the areas of communications,transportation, and the infrastructure,” saysAndrew Tan, General Manager of Singapore’sNational Environment Agency. “It will change

the way governments work, think, and interactwith their citizens.”

One example of this change is the fact thatin Singapore — as city officials are quick topoint out — it takes no longer than 15 minutesto process the registration of a new business.This is just one of many process optimizationsthat have earned this city its status as south-east Asia’s business hub and the affluence thatgoes with it.

Such high standards can only be met if theentire administrative apparatus stays focusedon constantly becoming more efficient and ef-fective. A vital part of this process is the estab-lishment and testing of performance criteria,which is supported by ICT solutions such asthose provided by the City Cockpit. So by mid-day the fictitious Mayor S. will be able to checkand see how his public offices have been do-ing that morning. His employees have to meetstrict targets regarding the speed at which they

implemented. In the first weeks of the newsystem’s utilization he still used to see a redlight in his computer — showing that city offi-cials were overloaded with the flood of re-quests. But training courses and the assign-ment of additional employees seem to havesolved the initial problems.

“City Cockpit makes in-formation available tomayors that would havepreviously required a staffof assistants to collect,”says Heidinger. “We pro-vide this information byworking with various types of data that alreadyexist.” For instance, traffic management sys-tems based on the use of sensors for measur-ing the number of vehicles crossing intersec-tions can help optimize the timing of trafficlights. In conjunction with information fromsubway and bus management systems, such

Ashish Lall, a management professor at theNational University of Singapore, believes thatexpanded use of information and communica-tion technology will help to structure adminis-trations more effectively, make them more ef-ficient, and foster more cooperation and

greater transparency. In areas where depart-ments have been operating more or less inde-pendently of each other, their processes will besystematically interlinked in the future. “Citymanagement via ICT calls for organizationalchanges,” says Lall. “Contradictory regulations,complicated processes, and the ‘Not Invented

“City Cockpit makes informationavailable that would have required a staff of assistants in the past.”

94 Pictures of the Future | Spring 2011

process requests and inquiries from citizens.The expectation is that responsive perform-ance by city officials will encourage citizens tosupport the community more responsibly in re-turn.

Responding within 24 hours. If a citizentakes a photo of a damaged park bench or afilthy public toilet and uploads it to a city ad-ministration web site, he or she can expect toreceive a response within 24 hours explaininghow municipal officials will deal with the prob-lem. The software used by city employees tomake such responses also records how manyinquiries are received and whether the neces-sary actions have been completed within thespecified time limit.

This information is not only available to de-partment heads but is also fed into the CityCockpit. This shows Mayor S. that the dead-lines are being met, even though the public’suse of this channel for inquiries and com-plaints regarding community matters has beenincreasing steadily since the new system was

data can create a real-time image of a city’straffic conditions, and thus provide informa-tion for improving services. The managementsystems of a city’s energy network, water sup-ply system, public finances, and public officescan be similarly correlated.

Better Decision-Making. Of course the CityCockpit doesn’t produce results on autopilot.“State-of-the-art technology can make infor-mation accessible and display it conveniently,but managers still have to make decisions,”says Seo Hian Julian Goh, a former Singaporecity planner who joined Siemens as head ofSmart City Solutions within the company’sCities Competence Center.

“Many key changes are political in natureand require sound judgment about how to useavailable resources and where priorities lie,”notes Goh. “But in every case, better informa-tion leads to better decisions.” Of course, thegathering of information must be conductedstrictly in accordance with applicable data pro-tection regulations.

Here’ mentality must be changed.” What’smore, ICT is an interactive medium that notonly improves coordination between govern-mental offices but also fosters contact with thepublic.

Returning to our City Cockpit scenario, con-tact with citizens has been so effective thatMayor S. can even check to see how many peo-ple in his city are doing their laundry at themoment. The mayor has been urging the in-stallation of digital electric meters that supportdifferentiated electric power pricing. Low elec-tricity prices in the evening hours are designedto offer incentives to households to not use ap-pliances with high power demand such aswashing machines in the daytime, when thecity’s electricity consumption is high due tobusiness and office use. And in fact, City Cock-pit gives Mayor S. a yellow light. The initiativeis starting to pay off. However, there is still alot of room for improvement in the city’s ener-gy efficiency. But thanks to this evolving tech-nology, city officials will at least know wheretheir challenges lie. Bernhard Bartsch

Pictures of the Future | Spring 2011 97

Collective Intelligence | Logistics in the Auto Industry

Logistics networks in the automotive industry keep gettingmore complex. Before long, software agents may help negoti-ate the availability of parts and their prices — in just seconds.

In the future, software agents are expected to take

over important aspects of logistics planning in the au-

tomotive industry — which would allow manufactur-

ers to deliver their cars to customers much faster.

In offshore wind farms, the front turbines get

the most wind and in the process generate wakes

of turbulence kilometers in length — which reduce

the performance of downwind rotors.

At present, customers have to wait weeks, ifnot months, before they can receive a new

car. One reason for this delay is the large rangeof options. In the case of some vehicle modelsthere are millions of possible combinations ofoptional equipment. The individual parts areordered through logistics networks that haveto be seamlessly integrated so that everythingis available at the assembly line when a car isput together.

The people who are responsible for thesenetworks are logistics planners. There areabout 100 of them at each automaker, andeach one coordinates up to 100 more plannersworking at supplier locations. Communicatingby phone and e-mail often takes a long time,which contributes to the industry’s inability todeliver cars within five days after receiving an

Wheeler-Dealer Agents

order, an ideal promoted by the EuropeanUnion in its “Intelligent Logistics for InnovativeProduct Technologies” (ILIPT) research project.

The project brings together 30 organiza-tions from the research community and theauto industry, including Daimler, BMW, Conti-nental, ThyssenKrupp, MAN, and Hella, whichhave developed methods to accelerate theplanning of supply chains. The centerpiece ofthe project is a set of market-based processesand technologies for software agents that arebeing developed by Siemens Corporate Tech-nology (CT).

Software agents are autonomous programsthat operate independently and respond to al-tered conditions — ideally almost the way aperson does, but much more quickly. They arealready being used in robots, and in the future

they will also take on the task of performingnegotiations in virtual marketplaces. The ideabehind ILIPT is that manufacturers and suppli-ers in their branching supply networks will au-tomatically coordinate their output quantitiesand delivery dates through the Internet usingsoftware agents, without violating the termsand conditions they have agreed on in theircontracts. This doesn’t put logistics plannersout of work; they still have to negotiate the ba-sic contracts and configure the negotiatingstrategies of the agents.

Lightning Logistics. These intelligent com-puter programs can even take over price nego-tiations and perform them recursively in a cas-cading fashion, in a manner analogous to thestructure of the supply chain. This means thatthe demand for parts that is predicted by anautomaker is negotiated with the supplier, thatsupplier negotiates with its own suppliers, andso forth. If two agents in this chain cannotreach an agreement, they negotiate backwardsagain in order to meet all of the specified pa-rameters. The agents also take part in auctionsif multiple suppliers are competing for thesame contract.

To ensure that agents know how much el-bow room they have when it comes to negoti-ations, they are provided with capacity limitsas input parameters. The supplier, for example,states its production capacities for certainmodules. It takes into account such constraintsas plant vacations, retooling times, and evenstrikes. If a supplier’s warehouse catches fire,the agents can re-plan the supply chain — “in amatter of seconds,” says Jan-Gregor Fischer, aCT expert for agent technologies in Siemens’Intelligent Systems and Control Global Tech-nology Field.

The availability of parts determines theirprice. For example, prices rise if parts becomescarce. To make bids in the virtual marketplace,the supplier establishes minimum and maxi-mum values that its agent must abide by in or-der for the transaction to be profitable. Thesame is true for the purchaser. These input pa-rameters are secret, of course — as they are to-day when a vendor and a purchaser sit acrossfrom one another at the negotiating table.

But there are cases when demand forecastscannot be brought into agreement with deliv-ery capacities or the prices expected by partici-pants. In this case, agents initiate a secondtype of negotiation in which they renegotiateminimum and maximum limits. Here as well,there are quantity and price constraints thatthe agents are required to heed.

High Gear Supply Chain. Agent technologiesopen up completely new possibilities. For ex-ample, customers will have many more op-

tions when choosing equipment for a dreamcar, but they will be able to take delivery in justa few days. If a customer orders his vehiclethrough the Internet, the required parts can bereserved immediately according to the “buildto order” principle. They are then delivered tothe production line without delay and assem-bled. This is not possible with the forecasting-and long-term supply contracts commonlyused today, which involve high warehousingexpenses and require that manufacturers an-ticipate demand for parts months in advance.

The supply chain of the future will have toadapt dynamically to demand. This is becom-ing all the more important because the specialplanning for individual model series no longerreflects the state of the art. The future belongsto module strategy, which puts similar compo-nents into different models — but these addi-tional dependencies can make logistics morecomplex. “Software agents can help to makethese complex scenarios manageable,” saysThomas Sommer-Dittrich, who is responsiblefor production management at Daimler Re-search in Ulm.

Agents Hit the Road. The ILIPT projectlaunched in 2004 has now been brought to aclose. The concepts that were developed forcollaborative capacity planning were integrat-ed into a software demonstrator designed byDaimler and Siemens. Siemens CT providedD’ACCORD, a market-based negotiation com-ponent, and Daimler implemented the soft-ware agents. The partners took the demon-strator on a road show during which theyshowed off the benefits of these new tech-nologies to the European auto industry.

Daimler is already using knowledge gainedfrom the project — such as software for net-work analysis — but is not yet employingagents as standard tools for logistics. In addi-tion to unresolved technical questions, such ashow to create a secure infrastructure for theagent-based systems among multiple manu-facturers, an important prerequisite for this ap-proach will be an increase in the modulariza-tion and standardization of components,particularly across multiple brands and manu-facturers, so that a market for standard bidscan be formed. “Another aspect that still has tobe resolved is how the sometimes very exten-sive certifications of products and processeswill occur in the new framework,” says Som-mer-Dittrich. “These aren’t things that can bedone ahead of time.”

Only when these issues have been resolvedwill agents be able to negotiate in market-places that include multiple companies. “That’swhen agents will bring their full value to bearand help cut costs for everyone involved,” saysSommer-Dittrich. Bernd Müller

96 Pictures of the Future | Spring 2011

Collective Intelligence | Intelligent Wind Farms

Computer models with collective intelligence can coordinateentire wind farms and gas turbines. This increases their outputand slows down the rate at which they age.

Turning Many into One

Most of us have probably been at a concertonly to find ourselves in the annoying sit-

uation of standing behind a giant person whoblocks our view. If wind turbines had feelings,they would surely be equally frustrated to findthemselves placed in the last row of a windfarm. That’s because the front rotors situatedin the undamped wind will supply more powerthan the ones in the rear. On top of that, therear turbines have to cope with kilometer-longtrails of turbulence produced by rotors in the“front row,” which cause fluctuations in poweroutput. It would thus be much better if thefront turbines were to forgo some power in fa-vor of their fellows in the rear. As a result, thewind farm would supply more energy.

With this in mind, Dr. Dragan Obradovic atSiemens Corporate Technology (CT) in Munich

has been working closely with engineers fromSiemens Wind Power to translate this insightinto software that simulates the wind and thebehavior of a whole wind farm within secondsand immediately transmits control commandsto wind turbines.

Measurements are made of the output, ro-tor speed, temperature, and other factors.Each turbine is connected via fiber optic linesto a central controller that coordinates thewhole system and, for instance, gives com-mands to change the angle of the rotorblades. “As a result, the entire wind farm func-tions as if it were a single power generatorwith collective intelligence,” says Obradovic.

For two years Siemens Wind Power inBrande, Denmark, has been testing the soft-ware at the Lillgrund wind farm off the

Pictures of the Future | Spring 2011 99

Collective Intelligence | Sensor Networks

Sensors are the eyes and ears of a growing number of systems. The data they deliver forms the basis for monitoring and controlling everything from electric blinds to entire building complexes and industrial plants. Siemens is studying ways to make sensors self-organizing. The idea is that local intelligence is more robust than centralized systems.

Dr. Rudolf Sollacher develops sensors that

exchange information about their status via wireless

networks. If one sensor fails, the others keep

working — a feature that enhances reliability.

You might say that Dr. Rudolf Sollacher isabolishing hierarchies. Sollacher, who

works at Siemens Corporate Technology (CT),studies ways in which intelligent sensors canorganize themselves in a network. Such net-works could be used in a building to collectdata on temperature, gas levels, or smoke.They would not simply pass data on to a con-trol center, but instead jointly evaluate the sit-uation. In other words, they could determinewhether a fire has broken out in the kitchen ora pot is boiling over. Such a system would bevery robust, says Sollacher, “If a central controlunit fails in a fire, the information dries up. Butif intelligence is distributed, various sensorswill continue sending data that can be used bythe fire department.”

Sensors are the eyes and ears of any intelli-gent control system, whether for automated

Instant Communities

manufacturing or monitoring major industrialfacilities. Their data is used by control systemsto make decisions and issue commands to ac-tuators such as controllers and motors. Theyform part of intelligent building blocks — so-called sensor nodes — that contain micro-processors and sometimes communication orpositioning devices. Thousands of these digitalmonitors can now be found in modern build-ings. But as their numbers increase, so toodoes the complexity involved in programmingassociated controls. After all, every sensornode has to be initialized and every function— for example, the generation of a diagnosticreport — must be programmed.

It would be much simpler and cheaper tohave a sensor network that does all this itself.With this in mind, Sollacher’s team conducteda study that showed how sensor networks can

simplify the search for building materials atconstruction sites covering as much as severalsquare kilometers. Most such materials of val-ue — things like cable spools and motors —come with radio frequency identification labels(RFID tags) that generate data that is stored ina database. But containers are moved around,machines are adjusted — and at some pointdatabases are no longer accurate.

CT’s concept uses sensor nodes consistingof a positioning device and a communicationunit. The nodes are placed on poles distributedat 50-meter intervals across a site. The nodesautonomously take distance measurements totheir neighbors so that each node knows itsposition. They then network themselves via ra-dio and register the RFID tags in their area.When a worker enters the ID number of thematerial he or she is looking for into an RFID

98 Pictures of the Future | Spring 2011

Turbine Fleet Intelligence: Tapping a Data Gold Mine

A gas turbine is a bit like a person. It ages, needs care, wears out, and sometimes may need a doctor. In

order to delay that point as long as possible, it is prudent to continuously collect patient data and use it

to derive recommendations for prolonging life. This is an ambitious agenda for turbines as well as for

human beings. Today about 9,000 gas, steam, and combination turbines from Siemens are in operation

worldwide, and more than 400 of these units are monitored on a daily basis. Each system constantly

supplies information concerning more than 2,500 parameters on average.

“This knowledge about our fleet differentiates us from our competitors,” says Craig Weeks, CEO of the

service business for fossil-fuel power plants at Siemens. This pertains not only to data collection, but also

to the intelligent combination of data, which will enable Siemens turbines to start up faster, run longer,

be more efficient and reliable, and generate fewer costs than models from the competition.

For example, utility companies appreciate gas turbines because of their flexibility. The world’s largest gas

turbine from Siemens can be started up in only five minutes and can reach its full-load output in 15 min-

utes. This capability can effectively offset the fluctuations in the increasing amounts of wind and solar

power being fed into the grid and thus boost the operators’ income. “Our aim is to ensure that Siemens

gas turbines start up faster and are more reliable and efficient than those of the competition,” says

Markus Zenker from the Siemens Power Diagnostics Center in Mülheim. If the data that continually ar-

rives from all Siemens installations in a power grid is evaluated quickly and intelligently, operators can

ideally start up gas turbines minutes earlier and thus generate more sales.

To mine the treasure that lies hidden within all the measurement data, Siemens scientists at Corporate

Technology in Princeton have combined this data with various other information sources under one vir-

tual roof. Engineers, field service personnel, and members of the marketing staff can use this “Fleet In-

telligence” in any way they wish in order to optimize operations at customers’ facilities or to initiate re-

placement of parts subject to wear, for example when a similar plant has experienced a failure. “Our ob-

jective is the ‘living turbine’ that is constantly being improved on the basis of experiences gained with

many other similar machines,” says Mike Johnson, Director of Operation & Maintenance Programs at

Siemens Energy in Orlando, Florida. But Fleet Intelligence is only one step on the path to Unified Service

Intelligence. It is expected that in 2014 an automated, interactive knowledge manager will be able to in-

stantaneously supply forecasts regarding consumers’ energy needs and upcoming repairs, and that oper-

ators will be able to use these forecasts to op-

timize their facilities. “Customers will pay for

this knowledge because it will increase their

sales and resulting profits,” says Johnson.

The fact that Siemens is ahead of the competi-

tion in data integration and the formulation of

prognoses for gas and steam turbines results

in part from its expertise in another field:

medicine. As Johnson points out, “We are ap-

plying Siemens patents in the field of medical

technology to the energy field, especially re-

garding the uniform integration of data from

various sources.”

Swedish coast. The results are expected in thesummer of 2011. “We’re sure the energy yieldwill increase by several percent,” says HenrikStiesdal, Chief Technology Officer at SiemensWind Power. “It’s as if someone who buys 20wind turbines gets an extra one for free,” addsProfessor Thomas Runkler, head of the “Intelli-gent Systems and Control” Global TechnologyField, which developed the algorithm.

Obradovic is already working on an updat-ed version of his computer models that takesturbine aging into account. Turbulence thatarises in wind streams sets off vibrations incomponents such as the rotor blades and tow-ers in the rear rows of a wind farm and makesthem age faster. “Maximizing power outputand minimizing aging are actually contradicto-ry goals,” says Obradovic, whose software willmake it possible to optimize both of these fac-tors in the future. The data gained in this waypartially underlies the mathematical modelsused to calculate the interactions between tur-bines. If rotors age too fast, their output is re-duced, or the output of the turbines in front ofthem is reduced in order to weaken turbu-lence. The idea is to prevent the “live fast, dieyoung” fate of many rock stars.

Neural Networks for Turbines. The opera-tion of gas or steam turbines for power genera-tion is even more complicated. They have toprovide a constant alternating current frequen-cy through continuous rotation. If loads areswitched on and off, or if wind farms provideless power on calm days, gas turbines mustramp up their output or current frequency willfluctuate. Sensors monitor such factors as airpressure, exhaust gas temperatures, emis-sions, and network behavior.

Volkmar Sterzing and his colleagues, whoare also on Runkler’s team, have developedneural networks that use these parameters togenerate turbine emission forecasts in sec-onds. Their software controls the fuel supplyand ensures that the turbines are always run-ning at ideal operational levels such that theygenerate the least emissions. Their neural net-works are constantly learning from the result-ing data, thus automatically optimizing turbineoperations over time.

In a few years the software is expected to bemature enough for normal operation. At theworld’s largest gas turbine in Irsching, Bavaria,1,000 neural networks monitor the system’scomponents with data from approximately 5,000measuring points. “This will lead to a measurablereduction in emissions, including during the loadchanges caused by solar parks and wind farms,”says Sterzing. In the future such learning process-es will also be used to achieve a more uniformcombustion process and thereby extend the serv-ice life of turbine parts. Bernd Müller

In wind farms, depending on wind direction, different turbines experience different loads. With the help

of simulations, experts can determine the direction of air flows and the strength of turbulence. Siemens

researchers have now developed software that makes use of this data to optimize a park as a whole.

Pictures of the Future | Spring 2011 101

drive system technologies. Given enoughmemory capacity, the nodes can function asintelligent labels that keep a “log” of all of aproduct’s attributes. Preliminary devices alongthese lines already exist in the form of RFIDchips embedded in blood bags. The units’ inte-grated temperature sensors monitor the entiretemperature chain from donation to transfu-sion. As part of the SemProM (Semantic Prod-uct Memory) project funded by the BMBF,Opgenoorth is examining possibilities for di-rectly integrating both specific product dataand pertinent information. He’s initially look-ing into passive product memory in the form ofeasy-to-operate storage units for use withthings like Simatic controllers. “When techni-cians service a controller today, they send a re-port to a central database, from which theycan also download data on the controller,” saysOpgenoorth. “We’ve equipped control cabinetswith RFID chips containing integrated memorydevices so that data can easily be read and en-tered on site.”

Opgenoorth’s team also worked with CT todevelop an intelligent label prototype knownas a “smart industrial Tag,” or siTAG, whichthey attached to a robot. Having recorded themachine’s movements and actions, the smartlabel sent the data to a handheld computer. Asa result, technicians were able to trace all thework it had performed. In the future, a mini-siTAG could even be attached to a workpiece tomonitor its processing. For instance, a motorcomponent could record the torque at whichits boreholes were drilled and quality assur-ance could use the data to identify and rejectdefective components. Quality engineerscould also recheck component processing ifmistakes were discovered at a later stage.

To ensure that such logs function properlythroughout a product’s lifecycle, SemProM isdeveloping standards such as uniform data for-mats. These will be designed to ensure that allparties in the supplier chain — in other words,manufacturers, customers, and even the ma-

chines the tags communicate with — canproperly store and interpret all data.

Corporate Technology researcher Dr. Chris-tian Seitz operates a demonstration facility inwhich a siTAG prototype measures tempera-ture and humidity. When critical thresholds areexceeded, the prototype switches signalcolumns from green to red. Seitz believes thatin the distant future, products with smart tagswill run though highly flexible manufacturinglines and stop themselves at the right station.Here they will issue instructions on how theyshould be worked — for example, regardingthe exact spot where a hole should be drilledor a part mounted.

This would allow very specialized customerrequests to be met — atrend that would lead toextremely low unit vol-umes per product variant.At present, such a feat re-quires too much retooling.But Prof. Thomas Runkler,head of the Intelligent Sys-tems and Control Technology Field at CT, be-lieves that intelligent products will one day or-ganize entire production processes bythemselves. In this scenario, an incoming or-der would automatically send a signal to ware-house components, request parts from suppli-ers, and launch production. The result wouldbe a highly dynamic system in which a verylarge number of devices would make decisions— either alone or following consultation.

Learning by Doing. Neural networks offer amathematical model for describing systemswith numerous networked decision-makingcells (see Pictures of the Future, Spring 2009,p. 54, and Spring 2006, p. 90). Originally de-veloped to depict how the human brain works,neural networks must be trained before theycan autonomously interpret diverse types ofdata. But once such a network has reachedthat stage, it can process new information.

Neural networks are ideal mathematical mod-els for collective intelligence systems. The lat-ter can be self-organizing sensor networks, in-telligent products, or even a group of stockbrokers whose decisions determine the priceof a raw material.

Dr. Hans-Georg Zimmermann, a mathe-matician and economist at CT, develops neuralnetworks that can predict such things as theprice movements of raw materials. For exam-ple, he simulates electricity prices based onthe purchasing decisions investors have madeon the basis of oil, coal, and gas prices as wellas other economic data. A total of 13 such pa-rameters are fed into his calculation. Zimmer-mann’s model currently uses data from the

preceding 440 days to calculate the develop-ment of electricity prices over the next 20 dayswith a certain degree of probability. Siemenshas been using the model for six years to buyelectricity at times when prices are cheapest. Itcan now predict the best purchasing day twothirds of the time.

Zimmermann continues to refine the modeland now also assists Siemens Procurementwith its purchases of key raw materials. Histeam is also using neural networks to predictelectricity consumption in an area covered by aspecific supplier on the basis of the behavior ofall consumers there. The greater the share ofthe future energy mix accounted for by renew-able sources whose output fluctuates with theweather, the more important such forecastswill become. Such predictions could be usedby suppliers to keep supply and demand bal-anced by shutting gas turbines on and off asneeded. Christine Rüth

Sensors that generate their own energy — by converting vibrations into electrical energy, for instance (right) — would obviate expensive wiring and be highly flexible.

Intelligent products might one day organize entire productionprocesses by themselves.

100 Pictures of the Future | Spring 2011

reader, the query is sent to all of the nodes inthe network. The target RFID unit then displaysarrows that point the worker to its location. Ifthe construction site expands, you simply in-stall additional poles and nodes.

Most sensor nodes today are linked to con-trol centers via cables. This is expensive andcomplicated, especially when many deviceshave to be hooked up, or when the units aremobile, as is the case with robots in the auto-motive industry. To get around this, re-searchers are developing radio sensors. But tobe practical, such devices will have to havetheir own energy supply while offering secureand stable radio communication. Under Sol-lacher’s direction, CT is developing technolo-gies for such radio sensor networks as part of aproject known as ZESAN, which is sponsoredby the German Ministry of Education and Re-search (BMBF).

Harvesting Energy. Sollacher, a committedmicrowatt miser, wants his sensors to be as en-ergy stingy as possible. His colleague DanielEvers is therefore studying self-powered radiosensors that literally harvest energy from theirsurroundings (see Pictures of the Future, Fall2009, p. 68). Evers adorns his sensors with so-lar cells, for example, or with piezoelectric con-verters that transform mechanical pressureinto voltage. He also equips them with ther-mo-electric materials that generate energyfrom temperature fluctuations. A sensor that’sonly a few centimeters in diameter can thusproduce several milliwatts of electricity as longas ambient energy, such as light for solar cells,is available.

This energy is collected in a capacitor untilenough has been stored to make a radio trans-mission possible. Because transmitting and re-ceiving requires a lot of electricity — from tento just under 100 milliwatts — depending onthe technology), the network usually remainssilent. In other words, the sensors go intostand-by mode — a state in which only a few

microwatts of electricity are needed to keepthem operating. Every 100 seconds or so, asensor will “wake up,” take measurements, andcommunicate with its nearest neighbor. What’smore, they forward information only if thiscommunication reveals something significant— for instance, if all neighboring sensors regis-ter higher than normal temperatures.

Such frugal exchanges of data must, how-ever, be reliable. For example, they need toovercome reflections that can block signals orbreak up data packets. Sollacher is thereforeexamining sensor nodes with several antennasthat can receive radio signals from directionswith fewer disruptions. A centrally controlledradio security system that Siemens developedin 2004 for buildingsworks a little differently. Itsnetwork consists of around15 nodes — for example,smoke detectors — thattransmit data from node tonode to a base station andthen autonomously searchfor alternative routes if they encounter deadzones.

Siemens also offers processing industriesradio-based products, says Kurt Polzer, who isresponsible for the development of the wire-less field device business at Siemens Industry.“On the one hand,” he says, “switching to radiotechnology poses risks for an industrial compa-ny. For example, if the controller technologyfails at a plate glass factory, 1,000 tons of glasscan cool down in the melt furnace. But thereare also advantages — and you can avoidproblems by simply equipping the facility withadditional radio sensors. This reduces mainte-nance costs and increases productivity andproduction quality.”

Sollacher uses a test network in his lab tostudy how self-organizing networks function.The network contains up to 80 nodes formeasuring temperature, brightness, and hu-midity. They measure distances to their neigh-

bors in order to pinpoint their own positions,autonomously assign radio channels, and reg-ularly synchronize their internal clocks. Theyalso interpret data — for example, they can de-termine mean temperatures. They do this bycomparing their measurements with those oftheir neighbors and then using the data to esti-mate an average value for the overall system.This value even includes measurements madeby nodes unknown to them. By exchangingthese estimates with their neighbors, they arethus able to quickly calculate the correct meantemperature, which can then be called up fromany sensor node.

The network uses a similar process to iden-tify simple patterns — for example, the combi-

nation of different measurement values. Sol-lacher describes the procedure as follows:“Imagine a refrigerated container that is beingmonitored by temperature, humidity, and doorsensors. If the door is closed, the temperatureand humidity should be within a certain range.If it’s open, these limits will probably be ex-ceeded.” Each sensor node utilizes predefinedranges, and then uses its actual readings tocalculate if all system parameters are withinthose ranges. Nodes exchange their estimatesand the network calculates iteratively whetheror not the system as a whole is operating prop-erly. Such functions are crucial for industrialmonitoring systems that utilize a large numberof sensors.

Intelligent Labels. Sensor nodes could alsoserve as product memory units, according toBernd Opgenoorth, whose team at Siemens In-dustry studies new industrial automation and

Norman McFarland (second photo from left) was named a Siemens Inventor of the Year in 2010 for his work on wireless sensor networks.

Every 100 seconds a sensor will“wake up,” take measurements, andcommunicate with its neighbors.

102 Pictures of the Future | Spring 2011

Dr. Dirk Heckmann (50) isprofessor of Public Law, Se-curity Law, and Internet Lawat the University of Passau.He is an expert advisor on IT Law to the German Parlia-ment and also provides hisIT-law consulting services to government ministries,state parliaments, and companies. Heckmann alsoserves as the director of theCenter for IT Complianceand Trust (CIT) at the Deutsche Telekom-Institutefor Connected Cities at Zeppelin University in Friedrichshafen, Germany.

The digital, virtual world is already an el-ement that’s here to stay in our everydaylives. But while the real world has com-prehensive statutes and laws that ensureorder and make it difficult to misuse dataor infringe on intellectual property rights,the legal situation on the Internet is notentirely clear. How do you see the currentstatus of things in this regard? Heckmann: Things could actually be simplein a formal legal sense because all of the “oldlaws” also apply to the new media — for ex-ample, the German Federal Data ProtectionAct of 1978, or German copyright law. Theselaws also apply to the Internet. The problem isthat such legislation is becoming less and lessrelevant due to the social and technical phe-nomena the Internet generates in very shortintervals. This is particularly true of the socialnetworks in Web 2.0. Companies and govern-ment authorities used to be restricted in theiractivities by the Data Protection Act, whichregulates the processing and dissemination ofInternet user data in order to protect citizens’privacy rights. But today it’s the users them-selves who willingly circulate huge amounts oftheir own personal data in forums like Face-

book, Flickr, and others. So, one question is:How far should legislation be allowed to gowhen it comes to protecting the rights of indi-viduals from their own voluntary actions? Thepace of technological change is so rapid thatlegislatures can’t keep up.

What are the major weaknesses of Internet data law?Heckmann: The Data Protection Act assumesa right of informational self-determination,but it doesn’t really fully address personal dataprotection or private autonomy. On the onehand, the law is designed to protect citizensfrom unauthorized or undesired use of theirdata. At the same time, it would actually haveto restrict an individual’s freedom of action to-day in order to provide this protection —which of course would be considered contraryto the concept of freedom in this age of infor-mation and the Internet. This dilemma is cur-rently resolved by having Internet users ap-prove the processing of their data, but suchauthorization is in the form of incredibly longlegal explanations that are routinely “agreedto” as quickly as possible with the click of amouse. That’s not self-determination.

In your opinion, how should data protection be managed? Heckmann: An interesting alternative is of-fered by technical data protection “embedded”in various applications — for example, inWLAN routers, social networks, and intelligentapplications like smart electricity meters, all ofwhich users can alter and adjust over time.This type of “protection ex-works” has beenunder development for some time both in Ger-many and at the European level. The SmartPrivacy Wheel, which I worked on, offers oneexample. This “control wheel” consists of nu-merous intelligent data protection measuresthat don’t place unnecessary burdens on on-line providers and users. That’s good becausemany users aren’t very IT-savvy and are oftenunable to take security precautions them-selves.

Can such data protection measures serveas a bulwark against dubious providers ordata thieves?Heckmann: No — the model is designed toreconcile the interests of legitimate and usefulcontent and applications on the Internet. Wedo in fact face a dilemma when it comes to

fighting computer crime. Citizens complainthat the government is monitoring their onlineactivities, but those very same individuals de-mand protection from fraud and misuse ofpersonal data. In my opinion, all of us — bywhich I mean users and legislators — need tohave an open debate relatively free of ideolo-gy if we want to be able to implement suitablemeasures. The first thing we have to do is findout what types of conflicts of interest exist.Only after we do this will we be able to estab-lish scales and standards for distributing liabili-ty and a system of data security geared towardthe Internet. Today’s inflexible laws are com-pletely insufficient for this.

Are efforts being made to create interna-tional standards for Internet law? Afterall, many of the servers we access are atdistant locations around the globe.Heckmann: If we can’t even agree on therules of behavior and value standards on thenational level, how are we going to do it inter-nationally? Along with EU-wide harmonizationof regulations like those for consumer protec-tion, we also have trade agreements and inter-national privacy laws — but these are relative-ly ineffective means of protection given theanonymity and elusiveness of some types ofInternet activity. Certain legal positions simplycan’t be implemented, especially since the le-gal framework varies in many nations, aboveall in non-European countries, and some activ-ities prohibited here aren’t even illegal abroad.In any case, it will be difficult to reach perti-nent agreements in the near future.

If the legal situation is still vague, whatoptions do users have to protect their privacy on the Internet?Heckmann: Many technical possibilities al-ready exist today — like firewalls. The impor-tant thing now is to raise awareness of the is-sue. Every Internet user needs to have anunderstanding of the potential consequencesof his or her online behavior, and users alsohave to know which type of information theywant to reveal. This all starts with Facebookand the question of who may access the pri-vate data provided to such a site. The circlehere also usually includes “Friends of Friends,”which basically means the entire world, giventoday’s very extensive networking. Anotherproblem involves the lack of knowledge con-cerning technical interconnections. For exam-ple, do people actually know what will happenwhen they click on a certain item? We live in aplug&play society whose members believethat all they have to do is flip on a computer,and everything will then take care of itself au-tomatically. We do double clicks or downloadan app from the App Store — and we don’t

even know what that actually means in termsof our data. Everything’s done fast and simplyand without questions — it’s a human weak-ness that harbors risks.

Collective intelligence involves generat-ing new knowledge from existing data bycreating links and identifying connec-tions. Who does the new knowledge thusobtained belong to — who has the rightsto it, and how are they allowed to use it?Heckmann: The right to use the ideas andmaterial benefits gained through this knowl-edge initially belongs to those who created it.However, one must also understand that thereare certain types of information whose useserves the common good and whose genera-tion is financed with taxpayers’ money —through publicly funded research, for exam-ple. In this case, it’s legitimate to restrict thecommercial use of such information by thirdparties and instead make the knowledge avail-able for free on the Internet. There are alsoother areas where government support of sci-ence and culture can place restrictions on thescope and reach of copyright law.

Is there a danger that the inflexible lawsyou mentioned might inhibit — or evenprevent — the development of new tech-nical innovations?Heckmann: Yes, there’s definitely a dangerthat this could happen. Already today, imple-mentation of many innovations is made moredifficult by unnecessary legal requirements.Take smart meters for electricity, which are animportant element of the smart grid. Siemensis very much involved in both research areas.Smart metering enables you to measure notonly how much electricity customers use eachmonth overall, but also how many kilowatt-hours they consume on specific days and atspecific times. The benefits are obvious: Sup-pliers can ease the burden on their power net-works by offering different electricity rates fordifferent times of the day, while consumerscan save money by adjusting their consump-tion habits. It’s a win-win situation — but it of-ten never goes beyond the pilot project stagedue to current data protection laws. That’s re-grettable because you can in fact use smartprivacy management measures to preventconsumers from becoming transparent, whileallowing people to enjoy the benefits of theinnovation. This example makes it clear thatlaws need to be adjusted somewhat to corre-spond to the true interests of governments,businesses, and users. Legislation shouldn’t beallowed to prevent innovation as long as suchinnovation doesn’t call into question the basiclegal consensus in our society.

Interview conducted by Sebastian Webel.

Pictures of the Future | Spring 2011 103

Collective Intelligence | Interview

Data: Where is it? Who Owns it? And Who Can See it?

Pictures of the Future | Spring 2011 105

Collective Intelligence | IT Security

The Stuxnet attack clearly showed that industrial facilities and infrastructure can be targeted byhackers. Siemens is developing strategies to address new threats from the Internet. Among otherthings, the company plans to make security updates available to customers more quickly.

More and more industrial facilities can now be

remotely monitored and controlled. But the more

open the software design is and the larger the

number of interfaces involved, the greater the

risk of intrusion.

On July 15, 2010, Siemens received infor-mation about a new computer virus — a

trojan that seemed to target only Windowscomputers. The trojan is activated only when itdiscovers Siemens Simatic automation soft-ware. Just one week later, Siemens released aprogram that removes the trojan, and at thebeginning of August Microsoft repaired the se-curity flaws in its Windows operating systemthat had made virus access possible. By theend of 2010, 24 Siemens customers from in-dustries around the world had reported thepresence of the trojan. In each case, the mal-ware was removed without affecting the au-tomation solutions involved.

Still, IT experts were alarmed. “Stuxnetmarked the first time that malware was usedto directly attack production processes,” saysJohann Fichtner, head of Siemens CERT (CyberEmergency Readiness Team), a group of ex-perts who support the company’s businessunits in warding off hacker attacks. Stuxnet

A Step Ahead of Intruders

seems to have been developed over severalmonths by professionals who put a hugeamount of effort into their undertaking. Spec-ulation has suggested that the trojan may havebeen programmed for the sole purpose of de-stroying centrifuges at the Natanz uranium en-richment facility in Iran. However, very fewpeople know what really happened. Nonethe-less, the incident raises the possibility of allkinds of different threats. After all, trojans thatsmuggle malware could cripple entire infra-structures by interrupting processes in powerplants, production facilities, and traffic guid-ance systems.

Fichtner wasn’t really surprised by theStuxnet attack, as the possibility of such an in-cident had long been proven in labs. Still,many specialists had hoped that the firewallsbetween public and internal networks wouldblock any attack from the Internet. It should bepointed out, however, that the Stuxnet mal-ware didn’t just come from the Internet; it was

also spread through the insertion of an infect-ed USB stick. “An attack like that could theoret-ically endanger millions of facilities,” Fichtnerwarns. There are differences, though. The at-tackers’ motives can vary from industrial espi-onage to sabotage. But whether the issue isdealing with attempted data manipulation, avirus, or a trojan, industry must be ready toface every threat known to the IT world.

Access to Production Data. In general, sev-eral trends in industrial automation are nowplaying into the hands of hackers. First of all,the strict separation between the office worldand the industrial realm in which machinesand facilities are controlled by special softwareis increasingly being watered down — both ina physical and a software sense. That’s be-cause plant operators want to be able to re-motely monitor and control their facilities, andbusiness units are demanding access to pro-duction data so that they can, for example,

104 Pictures of the Future | Spring 2011

The Internet is an extremely intricate and far-reach-

ing infrastructure. It’s much more than just a com-

munication medium or a source of information. Global

cooperation between companies is increasingly being

carried out via data networks as well. To get an idea of

how important this can be, consider that around 100

companies in six countries are involved in manufactur-

ing 70 to 80 percent of the parts in Boeing’s 787 Dream-

liner. According to a recent study conducted by market

experts at IDC, global data volume is set to increase

from 1.2 zettabytes today to 35 zettabytes (1021 = bil-

lion terabytes) in 2020. That figure corresponds to two

piles of DVDs stretching from the earth to the moon.

Around 75 percent of these 35 zettabytes will be

copies of original data and files, so there will be great

opportunity to save costs through compression tech-

niques and a reduction of multiple storage operations,

say IDC analysts. Experts believe cloud computing (see

p.109) will be a key aspect of the future digital world,

with over 34 percent of all data worldwide expected to

be stored via cloud services in the next few years. Cloud

computing offers services such as the provision of stor-

age capacities, programming, and analyses on external

computers, all of which are billed according to actual

use. As a result, companies will no longer have to pay

for the procurement, operation, and maintenance of

servers, software, and data storage systems, which

should significantly increase their flexibility.

A new study from the Gartner market research and

consulting firm predicts that the global market volume

for cloud services will more than double between now

and 2014, from $68.3 billion today to $148.8 billion.

Last year cloud service providers in the U.S. accounted

for 58 percent of worldwide income in the sector. The

second-biggest market is western Europe (23.8 per-

cent), followed by Japan (10 percent). Millions of private

consumers and small companies already access IT serv-

ices from the cloud, including e-mails, office applica-

tions, storage capacity, and social networks.

Medium-sized companies in particular are big users

of cloud-based services, according to another IDC study,

which surveyed 1,500 firms in 87 countries. A total of

41 percent of medium-sized companies in Latin America

now get services from the cloud; the figure in Asia is 35

percent, while in Europe only 19 percent utilize such

services. Larger companies are in many cases still con-

cerned about data and access security and compliance

with legal stipulations. However, they could be saving a

lot of money with cloud services. In Germany alone,

such savings could total around €38 billion over five

years, according to a 2010 study conducted by the Cen-

tre for Economics and Business Research.

Social networks such as Facebook and Xing and mi-

cro-blogging applications like Twitter are also very im-

portant elements of global networking. Facebook, for

example, had some 647 million users worldwide at the

end of 2010. More than 40 percent of all Internet users

in the U.S. are on Facebook, compared to only one per-

cent in India. The figure for Brazil is just under three per-

cent. China had 700,000 Facebook users at the begin-

ning of 2011; Russia had approximately 1.6 million. The

Russians and Chinese tend to use their own countries’

networks, such as VKontakte in Russia, which has more

than 86 million users, and QZone and Renren in China

(390 million and 160 million, respectively).

Social networks are also changing communication

habits at companies, where they are being used as inter-

nal platforms or for contact with customers and part-

ners. More and more companies are presenting them-

selves on virtual platforms, through which they monitor

statements about their products and brands, engage in

discussions, and search for new trends and new employ-

ees. So instead of being exposed to one-sided ads, con-

sumers themselves can now communicate with and

comment on companies.

Experts at Gartner consider the new communication

channels offered by Web 2.0 to be groundbreaking tech-

nology trends. One such trend is collective intelligence,

which Gartner defines as the voluntary and free-of-

charge creation of intellectual content by a large num-

ber of individuals. Wikis were among the first platforms

for collective intelligence, as their content can not only

be viewed by users but also altered online directly in

browsers. Sylvia Trage

Collective Intelligence | Facts and Forecasts

Cloud Services and Social Networks:Explosive Corporate Growth in Usage

2010 1.11.9 (+70%)

3.1 (+60%)

4.5 (+45%)

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

0

2007 ’08 ’09 ’10 ’11 ’12 2013

Year

In billions of euros in Germany

in billions of US dollars Which of the following Web 2.0 tools are already being used at your company?

Wikis 75%46%46%

Blogs /Chats /Forums 76%39%

45%

Social networks 60%49%

74%

Instant messaging /Voice over IP(e.g. Skype, MSN, iChat)

43%45%

61%

RSS feeds 47%29%

36%

Collaboration platforms (e.g. Sharepoint, Lotus Connection)

62%39%

30%

Social media software suites (e.g. Jive)

13%7%

11%

Large companies > 10,000 employees

Small companies < 100 employees

Social networksRSS/widgets/podcasts/mashupsBlogs/wikis

6.5 (+45%)

8.2 (+25%)

Sour

ce: B

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M, E

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ton

Sour

ce: G

artn

er

Sour

ce: F

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ter

Rese

arch

Inc.

200

8

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Middle Eastand Africa 1.2

Japan 12North America 50

Asia/Pacific 3Latin America 2

Western Europe 29

Eastern Europe 2.8

2014

0.4

0.8

1.2

1.6

2.0

in percent

Sales of Cloud-Based Services

Use of Cloud-Based Services

Investment inWeb 2.0 (firms)

Use of Wikis and Blogs inWork Environments

Midsized companies 100 — 10,000 empl.

Pictures of the Future | Spring 2011 107

Collective Intelligence | Social Media

Many people can no longer imagine life without Wikipedia,Amazon, Facebook, etc. But Web 2.0 is also changing the culture of work. Siemens uses a variety of social media to accelerate innovation and problem-solving processes.

Social networks can improve cooperation in

international teams. Such networks help to

bridge distances and cultural differences.

Enterprise 2.0

A surprise comes the next morning, whenGammie discovers e-mail messages sent by 23colleagues from Germany, India, and the U.S.As a result, he is able to type up five firm solu-tion proposals in just two days, and he eventu-ally gets the order.

Companies wishing to move innovationsforward more quickly need to enhance theirnetworking capabilities. That’s why global ITgiants like Google, IBM, Apple, and Microsofthave been employing a social networking ap-proach for many years now. In order to gather

new ideas, IBM gets thousands of employeesworldwide involved in online brainstormingjam sessions. A study conducted by the McKin-sey consulting firm found that most of themore than 3,000 companies surveyed derivean economic benefit from social media. In fact,18 percent reported that the use of such medialed to higher revenues.

Five years ago Siemens became one of thefirst companies listed on the German DAX in-dex to begin using Web 2.0 instruments in atargeted manner by establishing an internal

wiki service, employee blogs, and departmen-tal forums, all of which have led to more rapidsharing of knowledge (see Pictures of the Fu-ture, Spring 2010, pp. 84–113). Siemens’“Technoweb” forum, for example, allows any-one, from developers to office workers, to postcomplex technical questions or obtain simpleoperational assistance. The forum’s approxi-mately 9,000 registered users discuss variousissues in some 850 theme groups. As a result,the forum has accelerated work processes.

The “Urgent Request” function Alistair Gam-mie used is particularly useful. Here, a requestfor help is issued with just a click, as opposedto having to comb databases for hours, accesssearch engines, or make phone calls. The ques-tion is assigned to a targeted category and for-warded as an e-mail to all Technoweb users in-terested in the subject area, so it’s exposed to afar greater range of specialists than one’s owncircle of personal contacts. In other words, theknowledge of specialists from the farthest cor-ners of the organization can be called upon tohelp with a problem.

Top Knowledge Management. “Collectiveintelligence can be used efficiently with thehelp of social media, which also enable Group-wide employee interaction,” says Dr. ManfredLangen, who has been involved in knowledgemanagement issues at Siemens for 12 years.The company’s social media have boosted in-novation capability as well. Since 2001

Siemens has been a finalist eight times in therankings for “The European Most AdmiredKnowledge Enterprises” (most recently in2010) and has received an award for the bestknowledge management system in Europe.

Globally distributed research and develop-ment, short-term project partnerships, and in-creasing process and product complexity makeefficient knowledge filtering a must. But com-panies often lack intelligent methods for struc-turing data flows. For example, how can youfind the right experts for solving a specific

106 Pictures of the Future | Spring 2011

make seamless cost calculations. As a result,more and more facilities are being linked to theInternet and also being indirectly controlled bycommon office operating systems. Expertstherefore now face a dilemma. “Customerswant us to base our applications on open stan-dards, and of course we need to meet this de-mand,” says Georg Trummer, who is responsi-ble for IT Security at Siemens Automation.“However, this exposes us to the types of secu-rity problems every PC user is familiar with.”

There’s also another development that indi-cates we can expect to see more attacks in thefuture, and that is that cyber-invasions are be-coming more specifically targeted. In the past,virus attacks were like buckshot from a shot-gun. Hackers targeted the largest number ofcomputers possible on the Internet and hopedthey would hit a security gap somewhere. To-day cyber-criminals are more sophisticated.They send their malware to only a few comput-ers with critical security functions, usually forthe purpose of industrial espionage. Thismeans viruses and trojans remain undetectedfor a long time and can do a lot of damage be-fore they’re caught by anti-virus programs.

Office and industrial IT systems are mergingrapidly in a trend that is irreversible. Unfortu-nately, in many cases awareness of potentialthreats and the implementation of appropriatemeasures to counteract them are not increas-ing at the same pace. In the aftermath of theStuxnet attack, Siemens experts analyzed the

facilities that had been infected, including onein East Asia. “We found not only Stuxnet butalso many other viruses and trojans,” Trummerreports. This indicates that security measuresat these sites were inadequate. Specialists alsofound a telephone line that allowed dial-in ac-cess to a security-critical facility they exam-ined. Amazingly, some companies choose notto use passwords to control IT access to theirfacilities. “You simply can’t do that,” says Trum-mer.

Constant State of Alert. Siemens also has tokeep its own people constantly alert to IT secu-rity. CERT has taught hundreds of Siemenssoftware developers the principles of secureprogramming in order to prevent program-ming practices that could open a gateway tohackers. CERT experts put a high priority onthe strict separation of program codes anddata. Hackers can easily remove passwordprompts from naively programmed software,for example — exactly the kind of mistake thatCERT training seeks to eliminate.

In another measure, software providers arenow regularly providing updates for criticalservices such as plant controls. However, oper-ators of industrial facilities are generally reluc-tant to use updates because they fear that op-erations could be disturbed. So although thereare a large number of Windows updates outthere, only a few actually end up in the PCsused at industrial plants, and if they are in factdownloaded, it’s usually months — or evenyears — after they became available.

“We need to find a solution to ensure thatsecurity updates are introduced more quicklyin the future,” says Fichtner. In any case, CERTexperts are increasingly being brought in asconsultants during the software developmentphase, rather than being contacted only whena problem arises.

The challenges faced by security expertswill increase further as complex networkedsystems like smart grids become the norm.Collective intelligence will be required to makethe decentralized power grids of the future aseffective as they need to be. However, suchsystems presuppose a certain amount of truston the part of the people involved. Completelynew types of risks are conceivable in this area.Consider the following example: A homeown-er who has a photovoltaic unit on the roofcould manipulate his smart meter to show thathe has fed more power into the grid than is ac-tually the case. Preventing such fraud wouldnecessitate an intelligent detection system.The smart grid is like an organism that needsto be given an immune system, says Fichtner.“After all, the human body doesn’t trust every-thing that’s swimming around in its blood ei-ther,” he says. Bernd Müller

Johann Fichtner (top, second from left)

and his team exclude the possibility of security

flaws when they program their software.

Alistair Gammie, the Senior Director for Di-agnostics Solutions at Siemens in Swin-

don, UK, is on the verge of landing a multimil-lion euro order for diagnostic labs from aBrazilian customer. That’s because during a vis-it to one of the customer’s labs Gammie dis-covered a problem in the barcode reading sys-tem. He doesn’t have a solution that could sealthe deal, however — not yet, at least. Beforehe shuts down his computer in the evening,Gammie describes his problem in a post to thecompany’s internal forum.

Pictures of the Future | Spring 2011 109

Collective Intelligence | Cloud Computing

Memory capacity, computing power, and software are migrating from computers to the network. Cloud computing is one of the biggest trends in the information technologysector, and many Siemens business — and their customers — can profit from this development.

Cloud computing makes it possible to provide

software as a service. As a result, future IT services

will be as easy to invoice as electricity or water is

today — on the basis of consumption.

If one had to pick a buzzword for the IT sectorin 2010, it would be “cloud computing.” The

cloud, which signifies the abstraction of IT in-frastructure components such as computers,databases, and networks, is increasingly be-coming a home for hardware and software.Many companies are now discovering what pi-oneers like Google and Amazon have been of-fering for years — cloud-based e-mail pro-grams, storage capacity for photos and music,and computing capacity. These companiesnow market IT products and services on andthrough the network. Siemens too uses cloudcomputing for its businesses and customers,and a team at Siemens Corporate Technology(CT) has been addressing the topic at a specialcenter of expertise since January 2011.

The term “cloud” originates from an earlyphase of the Internet. Back in 1960, Americancomputer pioneer and artificial intelligencespecialist John McCarthy made the followingprediction: “We will someday access comput-ing power the same way we obtain water or

When the Sky’s the Limit

electricity today.” However, it wasn’t until thePC revolution and the advent of the Internetthat the right conditions for the cloud wereavailable. Things really began moving when In-ternet bookseller Amazon decided to modern-ize its data center following the bursting of thedot-com bubble. At that point, the company— like many others — discovered that only afraction of its computing capacity was actuallybeing used most of the time.

IT specialists at Amazon then decided to uti-lize emerging Web-service and virtualizationtechnology to make the company’s IT re-sources available in a flexible and efficientmanner. This worked out so well that the com-pany then launched its own Amazon WebServices on the market, offering, among otherthings, computing capacity that could be rent-ed at extremely short notice.

Different Clouds for Different Crowds. Ex-perts distinguish between three forms of cloudcomputing. The first is known as “Software as

a Service” (SaaS) — i.e. accessing software viathe network. In this setup, programs are notstored on a customer’s computer but insteadcalled up on an as-needed basis. For example,a heating company technician can use a tabletcomputer to access the latest maintenanceprogram on site at any time. A company couldalso make print drivers available on the Web,thereby allowing smartphone users to print onthe go. The second form of cloud computing iscalled “Infrastructure as a Service” (IaaS),which, as the name suggests, involves rentingcomputing power in the form of virtual hard-ware — like the type of service Amazon offers.Finally, there’s “Platform as a Service” (PaaS).Here, customers can access common develop-ment and operating system platforms. Put sim-ply, PaaS can be viewed as an operating sys-tem for an entire computer center that itself isalso able to communicate with other computercenters.

Cloud-related hardware and software serv-ices don’t have to be distributed across the en-

108 Pictures of the Future | Spring 2011

problem, so as to avoid flooding the e-mail ac-counts of all employees with your query?Siemens is working on a “Technology Atlas”that semantically links related terms and tech-nologies. Still, the perfect solution continuesto elude even the service providers who workexclusively on the automatic generation of on-tologies and the semantic modeling of infor-mation flows.

Open Innovation. Online communities arenevertheless a tried and tested instrument foravoiding knowledge silos. These communitiescan inspire product developments and safe-guard competitive advantages. “Social mediaare important for getting ideas to market morerapidly,” says Dr. Thomas Lackner, who is re-sponsible for Open Innovation at Siemens.“The consolidated knowledge of individual em-ployees and the different perspectives theybring to the table are important drivers.” A keygoal here is the strategic utilization of employ-ee expertise that has not yet been shared andthe external knowledge of partners.

being prepared for market launch. Patent situ-ations are being examined, project strategiesdeveloped, and business plans drawn up.

Younger employees in particular are veryfamiliar with social networks like Facebook,Xing, etc., which they don’t just use to discussprivate affairs. In fact, more than 20,000Siemens employees also talk about Group top-ics in their networks. This, of course, poses adanger that internal information might bepassed on. Even an offhand comment mightend up being read by the entire community —but Siemens prefers to rely on its employees’sense of responsibility in this regard.

The advantages offered by the internal blo-gosphere in particular are clear. Employees candiscuss current issues in real time wheneverthey want, share their expertise, or set up theirown blogs. Some 6,000employees are particularlyactive in this manner andoffer interesting contentwith their event, man-agers’, and experts’ blogs.

three different locations happen to be ponder-ing similar problems, the wiki network willquickly reveal this to be the case. Virtual teamsin the Group-wide wikisphere jointly composearticles and expand the Siemens glossary.There are also 70 specific wiki forums that areused for everyday problem-solving and canhelp to permanently improve work processes,products, and services, for example.

The Metals & Mining unit has a wiki forumfor service technicians that contains listings for220 mines, rolling mills, and pits from Malaysiato Bolivia. Engineers can use its digital worldatlas to zero in on individual locations, each ofwhich displays site-specific historical, geo-graphic, and technical information. The latestnews from the sites can also be viewed — e.g.which technicians are working there and what

types of measurements, repairs, or softwareconversions they’ve carried out, including allpertinent reports, photos, and charts.

This wiki forum also provides informationon visa formalities and the fastest routes todestinations, thus facilitating the work of tech-nicians who travel frequently. One can findout, for example, that a particular Bolivian sil-ver mine lies at an altitude of about 4,000 me-ters in the Andes and that the site can only bereached by private Jeep via Calama, Chile, orwith a propeller plane from La Paz, Bolivia.Such information is very helpful because it cancost a company millions if such a facility re-mains shut down for even 24 hours.

Wiki information significantly speeds upprocesses. For example, today 20 percent ofcompanies in the U.S. and Europe use blogs orwikis and other forums. The buzzword here isEnterprise 2.0 — and it’s leading to the forma-tion of a new corporate culture that’s changingthe way we work. “In ten years social mediawill have completely replaced e-mails,” pre-dicts communication expert Helmut Lehner.

According to a study conducted by McKin-sey, two thirds of the companies surveyed planto invest in social media instruments becausethey believe a shift to Enterprise 2.0 will givethem a vital competitive edge. Forrester, amarket research institute, estimates that cor-porate investment in Web 2.0 instrumentsworldwide will increase tenfold to $4.6 billionby 2013. The challenge is to logically integratesocial media into company strategies and con-cepts. For Alistair Gammie, meanwhile, usingWeb 2.0 has already paid off. Silke Weber

One way to go about this is to stage compe-titions such as the “Siemens Sustainability IdeaContest” — a platform made available globallyfor eight weeks that allowed employees tosubmit ideas online. The community employeda star-rating principle like the one used byAmazon to filter out the best ideas from the850 proposals submitted for sustainable prod-ucts and energy-saving concepts.

Bernhard Lang, a Siemens researcher inRussia, won the competition with his idea for“smart levees” — a monitoring system thatuses sensors to predict the stability of a dikedown to the last meter. Lang’s innovation isnow being operated at a test levee inEemshaven, Netherlands (see Pictures of theFuture, Fall 2010, p. 68). Other ideas are now

“With their open communication culture, blogscan lead to better awareness of developmentsat the company and more extensive sharing ofknowledge and experience,” says HelmutLehner, a Community Manager for the blogos-phere and wikisphere at Siemens. Moreover,because they’re embedded in the intranet,these networks are less exposed to Web crimi-nals, and the intellectual property they harborremains within the company.

Working in the Wikisphere. Social mediacan offer a lot to internationally operatingcompanies in particular. In addition to lower-ing communication costs, they foster coopera-tion in global teams and help to avoid projectredundancies. For example, if three teams at

Corporate investment in Web 2.0 instruments worldwide is expected toincrease tenfold by 2013.

Siemens researcher Bernhard Lang had an idea for levee sensors that won a company-wide competition.

Pictures of the Future | Spring 2011 111

has been working closely with Microsoft,whose Azure platform is being used for thesystem. “Companies can significantly reducethe cost of their own infrastructure and sup-port if they opt for Windows Azure and takeadvantage of the opportunities offered bycloud computing,” says Sanjay Ravi, who is re-sponsible for high-tech and electronics indus-tries worldwide at Microsoft.

Embedding applications into the Web alsomakes it possible to continually update them.“Up until now, Siemens has maintained com-puter centers around the world to managesoftware distribution,” says Käfer. “This re-quires buildings, IT and data security infra-structures, and people to run and monitoreverything. All of this ultimately costs a lot ofmoney, and these costs are transferred to thecustomer.” Siemens is therefore now lookinginto possibilities for using cloud computingcenters for its worldwide software distribution.In an initial pilot project with Microsoft com-puter centers, IT capacity is being rented onlywhen a software update is actually needed.

This results in both lower costs and greaterflexibility — which are among the key benefitsoffered by cloud computing. In this case, thebenefit is enjoyed by both Siemens as the soft-ware provider and by its customers. Using thecloud for other applications such as X-ray im-age processing means that customers nolonger have to purchase an expensive dataprocessing infrastructure but instead only payeach time they need a patient diagnosis. Cloudsolutions are also flexible — i.e. it makes nodifference whether a clinic only needs one CTscan diagnosis on a single day or ten.

Reliable Security. One of the biggest techno-logical challenges facing cloud computing in-volves keeping costs low even as services be-come more complex in the future. The factthat microchip performance might increase500-fold over the next 20 years does nothingto solve the problem, since the chips will still

need the infrastructure that allows them tocommunicate in order to ensure that their datais continually updated. “Even if you were ableto store and process all the data in the world ata certain point in time on a smartphone, it stillwouldn’t be enough,” says Käfer. That’s be-cause up-to-date and globally available infor-mation is becoming more and more impor-tant, and such information requires a scalableand efficient infrastructure. It’s a little like carsand roads — even a Ferrari won’t get very faron a rough farm trail. The cloud can thus alsobe imagined as a type of road network that in-cludes highways and refueling stations.

And what about securi-ty? Just how well protectedare important companydocuments if they’restored on the Web or oncomputers in a publiccloud that more or less thewhole world can potential-ly access? And what happens if they get lost —or if a server is hacked? “Above all, how canyou guarantee data protection when you re-lease sensitive data to third parties?” asksgentschen Felde, who is convinced that largecompanies are still hesitating to enter thecloud due to such data security concerns. “Se-curity considerations usually bring togetherfactors such as legal stipulations on data pro-tection, adherence to domain standards, andtechnical security measures,” says Käfer.

A more difficult task, according to Käfer, in-volves meeting the data protection guidelinesfor service providers in the event that suchfirms manage the personal data of other com-panies, or if different types of certificationsneed to be carried out. Käfer believes it’s “goodthat there’s a lively debate on cloud computingsecurity” because it increases awareness of theissue among both service providers and con-sumers. “That’s the only way essential evolu-tionary developments will be carried out,” hesays.

Legally speaking, similar security require-ments already exist for diverse Web applica-tions and for cloud computing. “Many compa-nies have been outsourcing and offshoring forquite some time, and customers remain satis-fied even though they’re not aware of it,” Käferexplains.

“Nevertheless, many companies will onlyuse private clouds for their initial cloud com-puting because a lot of legal gray areas remainin the public cloud, and companies first needto gain the associated knowledge and experi-ence,” Käfer says. However, he is convincedthat current concerns won’t stop the trend.

Statistics on growth in the cloud computingsector indicate that Käfer’s prediction is cor-rect. Although forecasts differ, analysts gener-ally agree that cloud computing is heading fora boom. According to a study that was con-ducted by the Experton Group, revenues of€1.1 billion were generated with cloud com-puting in Germany alone in 2010, and this fig-ure is expected to increase to more than €8 bil-lion by 2015. The question that arises here is:Does cloud computing represent a technologyleap similar to the one that occurred when PCsentered the working world? This, at least, is theprediction made by Achim Berg, former presi-dent of Microsoft Germany and now head ofMicrosoft’s global cell phone business. We’llstill have to wait some time to find outwhether Berg’s prediction is right — at leastuntil the current euphoria settles down. Still,Käfer is convinced that “cloud computing willpermanently change the IT world, even if thetrend might be given a new name three yearsdown the line.” Jeanne Rubner

In the future, cloud computing willmake it possible to access IT servicesas easily as electricity and water.

Diagnostic systems based on advanced IT provide doctors with precise analyses of CT scan images in just minutes via the network, thereby saving money and time.

110 Pictures of the Future | Spring 2011

tire Web or be accessible to everyone. In otherwords, there are both “public clouds” and “pri-vate clouds” (see illustration below). The latteris a closed private network that uses the sametechnology as a public cloud, but for legal rea-sons only a certain group of customers mayhave access to it. The two architectures can becombined into a so-called hybrid cloud that al-lows the benefits of both to be exploited —more specifically, efficiency and worldwide ac-cessibility on the one hand and the highest lev-els of security on the other. In cases where cus-tomer data needs to be processed in complexsimulations, data storage can be handled by aprivate cloud while calculations are carried outin a public one.

“Put simply, cloud computing provides abusiness model for making IT services availablevia the network,” says Nils gentschen Felde, acomputer scientist and network expert in the

Munich Network Management Team at Lud-wig-Maximilians-University in Munich. Dr. Ger-ald Käfer, an electrical engineer who is the di-rector of the Siemens Cloud ComputingCompetence Center, says that what may soundmundane is actually a real innovation: “Cloudcomputing offers a new technological founda-tion for providing software as a service. It’stherefore possible that we will access IT servic-es in the future as easily as we get electricityand water today — including billing on the ba-sis of consumption.”

Siemens has brought together all of itscloud activities at its Competence Center so asto be able to advise individual company Sec-tors on which applications they might be ableto offer cloud computing for. Conversely, theCenter also communicates with strategicproviders regarding what Siemens expectsfrom future industrial cloud services as a cus-

tomer. In addition, CT has a core team of cloudspecialists who call in other Siemens expertswhen they are needed. “In a certain sense, weourselves work in a cloud,” Käfer jokes. Thebenefit here, of course, is the ability to tap intoa huge pool of resources and always remainup-to-date on the latest developments.

Remote Diagnostics. In the future, the mostimpressive examples of the advantages ofcloud computing could be offered by medicalimage-processing applications and remote di-agnostics. Here’s a scenario. Let’s say a patientis sent to a hospital because a doctor believeshe or she may have a lung tumor. The patientis immediately given a CT scan. IT-based sys-tems can then automatically process and eval-uate the images, leading to an increased prob-ability of a rapid and reliable diagnosis. Often,however, small hospitals do not have such sys-tems because of their relatively high cost.

But in the future, physicians at such clinicsmay be able to purchase diagnostic systems asa cloud computing service. In this model, CTimages are made anonymous and then sent inencrypted form to a Siemens service center,where they are evaluated automatically. Thepatient’s attending physician would then re-ceive a diagnosis within a few minutes.

Welding robots in automotive plants are an-other example. PLM Software, a Siemens sub-sidiary with headquarters in Plano, Texas, of-fers a program for monitoring the quality ofrobot operations by continually recording andanalyzing data on vehicle bodies and weldspots. The program generates a report that ei-ther confirms a robot’s — and thus the prod-uct’s — quality or informs the plant manage-ment that the robot needs to be serviced orreplaced. However, the huge amount of datainvolved makes this type of monitoring ex-tremely complex and expensive — which iswhy PLM Software has been working on acloud-based solution for smaller productionlines since the summer of 2010. The company

Cloud Computing: A Variety of Patterns

Traditional IT

At one’s own companyOn demand

Provider 1…n

Private cloudVirtual

private cloudPubliccloud

Applications as a service

Integration,databases,computing time

VirtualizationMemoryComputing in a network

SaaS Software as a Service

PaaS Platform as a Service

IaaS Infrastructure as a Service

Siemens’ Cloud Computing Competence Center combines all of the company’s cloud activities. Its experts are developing new industrial cloud services.

112 Pictures of the Future | Spring 2011

Collective Intelligence | Interview

Prof. Gerhard Weikum(53) is a Director at the MaxPlanck Institute for Comput-er Science in Saarbrücken,where he heads the Data-bases and Information Systems department. Hisprevious employers includethe Swiss Federal Instituteof Technology (ETH Zurich).His special field of interest isthe automated and intelli-gent search for informationin data systems and theWorld Wide Web. Weikum isone of the world’s leadingresearchers regarding theutilization of statisticalmethods to facilitate the efficient and targeted use ofthe knowledge scatteredthroughout the Internet.Weikum, who refers to his mathematical search procedures simply as“knowledge harvesters,”works with Siemens in training doctoral candidates.

Melding Soft Data and Machine Intelligence

Your vision is to bring order to the knowl-edge that is scattered throughout the In-ternet and make it available to everyone.One of the search programs you’ve devel-oped is called NAGA — “Not anotherGoogle answer.” What’s wrong withGoogle answers?Weikum: Search engines such as Google aregreat; there’s no doubt about it. But they’restill comparatively dumb, because they’re un-able to answer complex questions. Let’s sayyour question is “Which famous scientist sur-vived his four children?” To answer a questionlike that, the best search engines will supplyyou with thousands of websites containingthe words “scientist” and “children,” but thecorrect answer is Max Planck. In other words,such engines only provide a fraction of theknowledge that is available in the Internet.

Can your software do more?Weikum: It would certainly be able to identifyMax Planck. It establishes logical, semanticconnections between concepts, and it can un-derstand the context. But regarding knowl-edge in the Internet, there are much more ex-citing issues than search engines. Take thequestion of how best to exploit the knowledgeof the many millions of people who use the In-ternet. How can we harvest the implicit hu-man knowledge that is to be found in blogs,Internet forums, and other kinds of websites?

In other words, how can we best tap thecollective intelligence of the Web?Weikum: Collective intelligence is somethingof a myth. Why should one million non-ex-perts know more than one expert? If a bunchof non-experts write a heap of nonsense,there’s no reason why that should add up tothe truth. For a long time, search engines fedwith the terms “Barack Obama” and “countryof origin” came up with the answer “Kenya,”simply because there had been lots of specula-tion in the Internet that President Obama wasnot a U.S. citizen. The challenge is therefore toseparate the wheat from the chaff and filterout the vagueness and untruths from the in-formation available in the Internet. Distillingthat information to produce collective knowl-edge only makes sense if you stick to high-quality sources. Machine systems have an ad-

vantage here in that sensors don’t lie. So inthe case of such systems, it really is true, sta-tistically speaking, that the sum of all theitems of information is more reliable than thebest single item.

Is collective intelligence therefore easierto achieve in the machine world?Weikum: That’s difficult to say. It’s just a dif-ferent kind of problem, that’s all. Just becausethousands of sensors are supplying data, thatdoesn’t mean the system is intelligent. The im-portant thing is what you do with the data.Equipping all the consumers in the power gridwith intelligent sensor systems would producea level of networking that has never beenachieved before. But that would not be intelli-gent per se.

How can we develop an intelligent overall system?Weikum: The main task we will face in the fu-ture is to make machine systems so fast and sointelligent that they can react to change in realtime. The biggest challenge here is to ensurethat a system possesses sufficient dynamismto be able to adjust to a new situation instan-taneously. That requires an enormous amountof computing power. It would be a bit like carsbeing equipped with ice sensors that could is-sue warnings in real time about which sec-tions of the road are dangerous, so that othercars can then be diverted onto alternativeroutes. A smart power grid could react in asimilar way to fluctuations in demand or ingenerating capacity. But even then, you’re stillgoing to push up against physical limits atsome point or other. Events such as black iceor a downed transmission line can throw thewhole system out of kilter. I suspect that a sys-tem is genuinely intelligent only if it alsoknows what to do in such exceptional circum-stances.

Are you saying that we need rapid adaptability in the machine world andhigh data quality in the Internet?Weikum: Yes. I think there’s a clear distinctionto be made between the social intelligence ofthe Web and the technical intelligence of in-dustrial applications. However, there are someoverlaps. Take the common practice of adding

tags to the images posted in the Internet so asto describe their content. This enables otherusers to search for such images much morequickly and precisely. A sea view, for example,could be tagged with the words “cliff,” “sea” or“sailboat.” Now, machine systems have greatdifficulties recognizing the precise characteris-tics of images — for example, of a waterfall oran image in a mist. Tagging therefore containsimplicit, collective human intelligence. Or takethe time when Internet users were asked toscan satellite images for the wreckage of amissing sailboat. Hundreds of thousands ofpeople took part. It’s possible to imaginesomething similar happening with the evalua-tion of medical images. For many years now,there have been software systems that searchCT scans and similar images for tumors or oth-er signs of morbidity. This kind of softwareworks on the basis of statistical models and isprimed by being fed with training images. It iscertainly conceivable that several hundredspecialists from the field, working in an Inter-net forum, might first annotate the individualcharacteristics of such images. That way, theirrich knowledge would be incorporated intothe image recognition software.

That kind of forum would, of course, belimited to experts. But how can we goabout using the collective intelligence ofthe Internet as a whole?Weikum: That’s precisely the difficulty. For ex-ample, at present our software only utilizesmore or less trustworthy sources such asWikipedia and news portals, which we evalu-ate according to their quality and reliability.We’re very conservative in this regard. We stilldon’t use blogs. Nonetheless, that type of fo-rum is very interesting. For example, the med-ical portals where people talk about the sideeffects of particular drugs can contain valu-able information that goes far beyond thebroad-based guidance that is contained in pa-tient information leaflets. The challenge hereis to find a way of utilizing these “soft” data inthe Internet and making them systematicallyavailable to users. Alternatively, services suchas Twitter are excellent for predicting newtrends. And they could also be an importantsource of information for service providers.Say, for example, hundreds of people tweetabout a delayed train. Car rental companies orbus operators could then advertise alternativearrangements on cell phones. The value of thecollective intelligence that is brought togetherin the Internet is largely derived from the di-versity of the information and opinions in-volved. The task that will face us in the futureis to make this knowledge available in such away that we are able to conserve its diversity.

Interview by Tim Schröder.

Collective Intelligence

In BriefIt won’t be long before automated systems are

generating more data than all their users com-

bined. The challenge remains how best to chan-

nel this flood of bits and bytes. By networking

sensors to create a kind of collective intelligence,

it should be possible to generate useful knowl-

edge on the basis of many discrete facts in such

fields as medicine, production planning, and

building systems. (pp. 83, 99)

Collective intelligence is helping specialists in a

major Ohio hospital system to provide better

care. Software from Siemens identifies key data

from electronic medical files, compares treat-

ment against the latest guidelines, and thus re-

duces quality-of-care evaluation time. This pro-

gram, which should soon be able to work in real

time, is expected to reduce errors and improve

patient outcomes. (p. 85)

Collective intelligence is also set to play a

major role in traffic management. In Houston, for

instance, Siemens has outfitted 400 intersection

controllers with systems that allow them to

change traffic light timing dynamically in re-

sponse to the numbers of approaching vehicles.

Major safety advantages are expected. (p. 91)

Logistics is an increasingly complex area of

operations in the automotive industry, where

new approaches are now being considered.

These include the use of software agents that

can autonomously negotiate prices on virtual

markets. The agents can even replan supply

chains in seconds in response to unexpected

events such as fires or strikes. (p. 96)

Advanced sensors can act like sense organs,

with tasks ranging from controlling simple de-

vices to monitoring large industrial processes.

Siemens is investigating how autonomous sensor

components are able, in the absence of a control

center, to manage communications, supply data,

make decisions, and issue commands. (p.99)

Siemens is looking at cloud computing,

whereby memory capacity, processing power,

and software are provided by an external net-

work. In the future it will be possible to buy IT

services in the same way that utilities are pur-

chased today. Siemens is concentrating its cloud

activities in a competence center and exploiting

the benefits of this worldwide trend. (p. 109)

PEOPLE:

IT in Healthcare:

Dr. Bharat Rao, Healthcare

[email protected]

Jerard Berger, Healthcare

[email protected]

Healthcare for India:

Dr. Zubin Varghese, CT

[email protected]

Houston traffic management:

Justinian Rosca, CT

[email protected]

David Miller, Industry

[email protected]

Agent technologies:

Jan-Gregor Fischer, CT

[email protected]

Intelligent wind farms:

Dr. Dragan Obradovic, CT

[email protected]

Sensor networks:

Dr. Rudolf Sollacher, CT

[email protected]

Daniel Evers, CT

[email protected]

Dr. Hans-Georg Zimmermann, CT

[email protected]

IT security:

Johann Fichtner, CT

[email protected]

Georg Trummer, I IA

[email protected]

Cloud computing:

Dr. Gerald Käfer, CT

[email protected]

LINKS:

IDC Digital Universe:

www.emc.com/collateral/demos/microsites/

idc-digital-universe/iview.htm

Large Knowledge Collider project:

www.larkc.eu

MIT Sloan School of Management:

http://mitsloan.mit.edu/

Prof. Thomas Malone:

http://cci.mit.edu/malone/

Prof. Gerhard Weikum: www.mpi-inf.mpg.de

IntelliDrive:

www.itssiemens.com/en/t_nav141.html

ILIPT-Project / EU automotive initiative:

www.ilipt.org

European Network and Information Security

Agency: www.enisa.europa.eu

Pictures of the Future | Spring 2011 113

Pictures of the Future | Spring 2011 115

Pictures of the Future| Preview

Achieving Growth with Fewer Resources

Every year, the world’s population grows by the equivalent of Germany’s popula-tion. By 2030, there will be around 1.4 billion more people on earth — and thedemand for energy, consumer goods, and water will increase correspondingly.The impact of scarcer resources is already affecting the prices of crude oil, gas,and metals. And one of our most important raw materials — drinking water — isalso becoming scarce. Solutions that couple economic growth with lower con-sumption of resources must be developed if we are to retain a balance betweendemand, supply, and environmental protection. Achieving this feat will requiremany measures, including intelligent product design, efficient industrial use ofmaterials and energy, and solutions for disassembly and recycling. In developingcountries, solutions will even include special plant oil cooking systems that willcut pollutant emissions and reduce deforestation.

Cities: Building a Better Quality of Life

Today, some 3.5 billion people live in cities; in 2030 that number will have risento almost five billion. Alone in Asia, around 100,000 people migrate to conurba-tions every day. Under these conditions, what can be done to make cities moresustainable and improve the quality of life of their inhabitants? Scientists and ur-ban planners are addressing these issues with new concepts and technologicalsolutions, many of which are being investigated and presented in a new Siemenscenter in London. For example, in tomorrow’s metropolitan areas, travel will beless necessary, and living and working conditions will improve. Researchers areinvestigating new building and communication technologies, as well as moresustainable mobility concepts that will integrate electric cars into public transitsystems. Senior citizens’ living conditions are also a target for improvement. Theobjective here is to enable seniors to live independently for as long as possible.

When Machines Learn

To an ever-increasing extent, systems inhealthcare, industry, power generation, andurban management are being challenged bythe complexity of the data they are generat-ing. To optimize their responses to constant-ly changing circumstances, machines musttherefore be able to learn from experience.The possibilities opened by this capability arevirtually limitless. For instance, can advancesin cellular imaging analysis open the door to

automated identification of cancerous tis-sues? Can smart grids learn to decipher thepatterns of energy supply and demand, in order to optimize energy use for entire re-gions? Basic research in how systems canlearn to form and refine hypotheses aboutthe meanings embedded in the data they areprocessing is beginning to provide answers.

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