physician trends 2015
TRANSCRIPT
Copyright © 2015 Jackson Healthcare 2
What’s Highlighted In This Report?• Supply & Demand
• Regulatory Impact
• Compensation & Reimbursement
• Outlook & Satisfaction
• Practice Environment
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The American Association of Medical Colleges (AAMC) projects a shortfall of between 46,100 – 90,400 physicians by 2025.
SUPPLY & DEMAND
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Key Physician Shortages by 2025
• Primary Care (12,500 – 31,100)
• Specialists & Surgeons (28,200 – 63,700)
• Medical Sub-specialists (5,100 – 12,300)
Source: Complexities of Physician Supply & Demand: Projections from 2013 to 2025, AAMC
SUPPLY & DEMAND
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72 percent of physicians believe there is a physician shortage
Source: 2014 Survey of America’s Physicians by Physicians Foundation
SUPPLY & DEMAND
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Scenarios that could impact demand:
• Changing demographics
• ACA expanded medical insurance coverage
• Integrated care delivery model
• Expanded use of retail clinics
• Increased use of advanced practice nurses
Source: Complexities of Physician Supply & Demand: Projections from 2013 to 2025, AAMC
SUPPLY & DEMAND
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“…while productivity improvements (via tech and staffing) might solve the (physician) shortage for big cities with ample resources, what about the non-metropolitan areas…?”
— Randy Gott, SVP with The Advisory Board Company
Source: “Is the physician shortage a real concern? Depends on where you live,”
Advisory Board Company, Sept. 2, 2015
SUPPLY & DEMAND
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As physicians retire, local health systems struggle to replace their core medical staff.
— Randy Gott, SVP with The Advisory Board Company
Source: “Is the physician shortage a real concern? Depends on where you live,”
Advisory Board Company, Sept. 2, 2015
SUPPLY & DEMAND
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Impacts of ACA on Physician Practices
• Too early to tell (25 percent)
• High deductibles for patients (12 percent)
• Loss of patients (8 percent)
• More patients with coverage (8 percent)
• Decline in reimbursements (7 percent)
• More bureacracy (6 percent)
Source: Jackson Healthcare Survey of 1,527 Physicians between 4/18/14 – 6/5/14
REGULATORY IMPACT
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46 percent of doctors give the ACA a D or F grade
Source: 2014 Survey of America’s Physicians by Physicians Foundation
REGULATORY IMPACT
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74 percent of physicians said they felt the ACA would be overturned by Congress, with 66 percent saying it should be repealed.
Source: January 2015 Survey by LocumTenens.com
REGULATORY IMPACT
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61 percent of physicians reported an increase in overhead costs for items such as EHR and administrative costs to comply with the ACA
Source: Jackson Healthcare Survey of 1,352 Physicians (Released: June 25, 2015)
REGULATORY IMPACT
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60 percent of physicians reported more administrative work under the ACA, resulting in less time with patients
Source: Jackson Healthcare Survey of 1,352 Physicians (Released: June 25, 2015)
REGULATORY IMPACT
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REGULATORY IMPACT
Source: Jackson Healthcare Survey of 1,352 Physicians (Released: June 25, 2015)
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REGULATORY IMPACT
Source: Jackson Healthcare Survey of 1,352 Physicians (Released: June 25, 2015)
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$195,000
Average Primary Care Physician’s Compensation
Source: Physician Compensation Report 2015 by MedScape Medical News
COMPENSATION & REIMBURSEMENT
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$284,000
Average Specialist’s Compensation
Source: Physician Compensation Report 2015 by MedScape Medical News
COMPENSATION & REIMBURSEMENT
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Top 5 Compensation Increases from 2013-14
• Urology
• Invasive Cardiology
• Dermatology
• Gastroenterology
• Radiation Oncology
Source:“Doc pay resumes upward march after prior year's slowdown,” by Steven Ross Johnson, July 18, 2015, Modern Healthcare
COMPENSATION & REIMBURSEMENT
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“The past five years have seen a significant increase in the creation of alternative payment models, such as accountable care organizations, patient centered medical homes, bundled payments, gainsharing, and various other pay-for-performance formulae.”
Source: Advisory Board Company, “How physicians can adapt to compensation changes,” A Law Review Q&A, July 10, 2015
COMPENSATION & REIMBURSEMENT
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“We continue to see the expansion of compensation figures for the primary-care specialties at a rate that's surpassing that of the (other) specialties.”
— Todd Evenson, COO of MGMA
Source: “Doc pay resumes upward march after prior year's slowdown,” by Steven Ross Johnson, July 18, 2015, Modern Healthcare
COMPENSATION & REIMBURSEMENT
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Proposed updates to CMS’s Physician Fee Schedule could lead to an increase in Medicare reimbursement for physicians in 2016.
Source: “How Medicare plans to change physician pay next year,” Advisory Board Company, July 9, 2015
COMPENSATION & REIMBURSEMENT
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Reimbursement cuts were one of the top two reasons physicians cited for selling their medical practice.
Source: Jackson Healthcare Physician Acquisition Survey (June 2015)
COMPENSATION & REIMBURSEMENT
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Physician satisfaction is on the decline.
64 percent of physicians said they would choose medicine as a career again (vs. 69 percent in 2011)
Source: Physician Compensation Report 2015 by Medscape Medical News
OUTLOOK & SATISFACTION
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OUTLOOK & SATISFACTION
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Source: Jackson Healthcare Survey of 1,527 Physicians between 4/18/14 – 6/5/14
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OUTLOOK & SATISFACTION
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Source: Jackson Healthcare Survey of 1,527 Physicians between 4/18/14 – 6/5/14
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OUTLOOK & SATISFACTION
Source: Jackson Healthcare Survey of 1,527 Physicians between 4/18/14 – 6/5/14
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OUTLOOK & SATISFACTION
Source: Jackson Healthcare Survey of 1,527 Physicians between 4/18/14 – 6/5/14
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Over past five years, physician satisfaction with EHR has decreased nearly 30 percentage points.
Source: 2014 Physician Survey by American Medical Association & AmericanEHR Partners
OUTLOOK & SATISFACTION
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81 percent
% of doctors at capacity or overextended
Source: 2014 Survey of America’s Physicians by Physicians Foundation
PRACTICE ENVIRONMENT
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53 hours
Average work week for a physician
Source: 2014 Survey of America’s Physicians by Physicians Foundation
PRACTICE ENVIRONMENT
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9 – 12 Hours
Average number of hours worked per day
Source: 2014 Survey of America’s Physicians by Physicians Foundation
PRACTICE ENVIRONMENT
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22 patients
Mean # of patients seen per day
Source: 2014 Survey of America’s Physicians by Physicians Foundation
PRACTICE ENVIRONMENT
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20 minutes
Mean time spent with each patient
Source: Jackson Healthcare Survey of 1,527 Physicians between 4/18/14 – 6/5/14
PRACTICE ENVIRONMENT
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13 patients
Mean # of patients seen during hospital rounds
Source: Jackson Healthcare Survey of 1,527 Physicians between 4/18/14 – 6/5/14
PRACTICE ENVIRONMENT
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5 surgeries
Mean # performed in OR on a surgery day
Source: Jackson Healthcare Survey of 1,527 Physicians between 4/18/14 – 6/5/14
PRACTICE ENVIRONMENT
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68 percent of physicians who sold their practice reported approaching the hospital to initiate acquisition talks.
Source: Jackson Healthcare Physician Acquisition Survey (June 2015)
PRACTICE ENVIRONMENT
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Primary care practices make up the majority of acquisitions by hospitals.
Source: Jackson Healthcare Physician Acquisition Survey (June 2015)
PRACTICE ENVIRONMENT
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77 percent
# of physicians who said selling their practice was the right decision
Source: Jackson Healthcare Survey of 1,527 Physicians between 4/18/14 – 6/5/14
PRACTICE ENVIRONMENT
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85 percent
# of physicians who have adopted EHR
Source: 2014 Survey of America’s Physicians by the Physicians Foundation
PRACTICE ENVIRONMENT
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The number of physicians taking call dropped from 77 percent in 2012 to 57 percent in 2014.
Source: Jackson Healthcare Survey of 1,527 Physicians between 4/18/14 – 6/5/14
PRACTICE ENVIRONMENT
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More physicians are choosing employment over practice ownership.
Source: Jackson Healthcare Survey of 1,527 Physicians between 4/18/14 – 6/5/14
EMPLOYMENT
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5 Advantages of Employment:
• Elimination of concerns about their practice’s financial viability (71 percent)
• Less administrative work (43 percent)
• Less stress (42 percent)
• Ability to take time off (40 percent)
• Stability/security (37 percent)
Source: Jackson Healthcare Survey of 1,527 Physicians between 4/18/14 – 6/5/14
EMPLOYMENT
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