physical basis of past, recent and future climate changes
TRANSCRIPT
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Physical basis of past, recent and future climate changes
Jean-Louis [email protected]
Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique (CNRS, UPMC, ENS, X)
Institut Pierre Simon Laplace.
Institut du Cerveau et de la Moelle Epinière (ICM) 11/07/2018
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Emergence of the physics of climate
Joseph Fourrier(17681830)
J. Fourrier:● Mémoire sur les températures du globe terrestre et des espaces planétaires, Mémoires de l'Académie des Sciences de l'Institut de France,1824● General remarks on the Temperature of the Terrestrial Globe and the Planetary Spaces; American Journal of Science, Vol. 32, N°1, 1837.
[Dufresne, 2006]
➢ He postulates global climate can be explained by physical laws
➢ He consider the Earth like any other planet
➢The energy balance equation drives the temperature of all the planets
➢ The major heat transfers are1.Solar radiation2.Infrared radiation3.Diffusion with the interior of Earth
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Emergence of the physics of climate
Joseph Fourrier(17681830)
J. Fourrier:● Mémoire sur les températures du globe terrestre et des espaces planétaires, Mémoires de l'Académie des Sciences de l'Institut de France,1824● General remarks on the Temperature of the Terrestrial Globe and the Planetary Spaces; American Journal of Science, Vol. 32, N°1, 1837.
[Dufresne, 2006]
➢ He envisages the importance of any change of the sun « The least variation in the distance of that body[ the sun] from the earth would occasion very considerable changes of temperature. »➢ He envisages that climate may change: « The establishment and progress of human society, and the action of natural powers, may, in extensive regions, produce remarkable changes in the state of the surface, the distribution of waters, and the great movements of the air. Such effects, in the course of some centuries, must produce variations in the mean temperature for such places ».
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Annual mean of surface temperature
January mean of precipitation
Does « global climate » make sens?
Climate : statistical properties of weather.
From Greek « klima », i.e. «sky tilt », title of surface relative to the sun
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Equilibrium temperature of a planet
Incoming solar radiation on a sphere: Fs=F0/4 = 341 W.m-2
Incoming solar radiation on a plan: F0=1364 W.m-2
Ts= 278K (5°C)
All the incoming solar radiation is absorbed : Fa = 240W.m-2
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Equilibrium temperature of a planet
Incoming solar radiation on a sphere: Fs=F0/4 = 341 W.m-2
Incoming solar radiation on a plan: F0=1364 W.m-2
2/3 of incoming solar radiation is absorbed : Fa = 240W.m-2
Ts= 255K (-18°C)
1/3 of incoming solar radiation is reflected
Global mean surface temperature is 15°C due to greenhouse effect
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Discovery of past climate changesThe hypothesis of glacial periods (18401860)
Louis AgassizJean de
Charpentier Erratic blocks
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Origin of these variations : sun or CO2 (1860-1900) ?
Svante ArrheniusJames Croll
A period described by cave paintings
Cosquer Lascaux Chauvet
Discovery of past climate changes
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© CNRS Photothèque / FAIN Xavie
© C. Lorius
Ice cores in Antarctica and Greenland
Discovery of past climate changes
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in thousands of years since the present
after [IPCC, AR5, 2013]
CO2
ΔT tropic
ΔT Antarctic
Discovery of past climate changes
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I. Emergence of climate and climate change science
II. Climate modeling
III.Climate and climate change simulations
IV.Focus on some climate phenomena
V. Climate changes and climate variability
VI.Conclusions
Outlook
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Fe
Greenhouse effect: G=Fs-Fe
Water vapour 60%CO2 26%Ozone O3 8%N2O +CH4 6%
Current greenhouse effect: G ≈ 150 W.m-2
Contribution of atmospheric gases (clear sky)
Gas radiative properties
Computation of the radiative fluxes and the greenhouse effect
Atmospheric characteristics
What radiation heat transfer theory tell us
Fs
Fo
For a doubling of CO2 concentration, green house effect increases by ≈ 3.7 W.m-2
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For a doubling of the CO2 concentration:
• the green house effect increases by 3.7 W.m-2
• the temperature increases by ≈ 1.2 K, if nothing change except an uniform increase of temperature that only impact radiation
But feedbacks exist:
• Snow and sea ice reflect solar radiation; if they decrease, more solar energy will be absorbed positive feedback⇒
• Water vapour is the main greenhouse gas; if it increases, the greenhouse effect will be enhanced positive feedback⇒
• Clouds reflect solar radiation and contribute to the greenhouse effect; if they change, the energy budget will be modified positive or ⇒negative feedback
Need of 3D numerical climate models
From radiative transfer computation to climate modelling
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Syukuro Manabe(1931-)
Jule Charney(1917-1981)
Wilhelm Bjerknes(1862–1951)
L. F. Richardson (1881–1953)
J. von Neumann (1903–1957)
Numerical climate models(numerical weather simulators)
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Large scale circulation: Meridional heat transport and the effects of Earth rotation
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©CEA
3D climate numerical models
• Physical laws (atmosphere, ocean, sea-ice....)• Discretization (temporally and spatially)• Modelling of the sub-grid phenomena, or parameterization
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I. Emergence of climate and climate change science
II. Climate modeling
III.Recent and future climate change simulations
IV.Focus on some climate phenomena
V. Climate changes and climate variability
VI.Conclusions
Outlook
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Recent changes in surface temperature
Global (ocean+continent)
over continent
[IPCC AR5, 2013]
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[IPCC 2014]
Role of human activities
[Crevoisier et al.]
eq.
nord
sud
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Role of human activities
[Global Carbon Project]
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8,6 ± 0,4 GtC y-1
+0,8 ± 0,5 GtC y-1
2,6 ± 0,5 GtC y-1
27%
4,3 ± 0,1 GtC y-1
45%
27%2,6 ± 0,8 PgC y-1
http://www.globalcarbonproject.org/ (Global Carbon Project, 2011)
Mean CO2 emissions for 2003-2012 1 GtC = 3.67 GtCO
2
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The IPSL Earth System Model
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Authorized CO2 emissions
Radiative forcings
Climate changes
Atmospheric compositionNatural and
anthropogenic forcings
IPSL-CM5A-LR
Solar and volcanoes
Green house gases and active gases
CO2 concentration
The IPSL Earth System Model
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Recent Earth surface temperature trend
[IPCC, 2013]
Simulations with natural and anthropological forcings
Simulations with natural forcings only
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Future scenarios: gaz emission and concentration
emission concentration
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Radiative forcing of future scenarios
Contribution of individual forcings to total forcing relative to 1850Values (W.m-2) Relative values (%)
Total radiative forcing (W.m-2)
2000 2100 2200 2300
0
12
8
4
CO2
CH4
N2O
O3
other
aerosols
LU
CO2
CH4
N2O
O3
other
aer
LU0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 -40 0 40 8020 60 100-20 (%)
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Global mean surface temperature change
RCP 2.6 RCP 8.5
[IPCC 2013]
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Arctic sea-ice 1970-2100September (minimum extension)
(Mill
ions
km
2 )
Mars (maximum extension)
RCP 2.6 RCP 8.5
RCP 2.6 RCP 8.5
(Mill
ions
km
2 )
IPSL-CM5A-LR
IPSL-CM5A-LR
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Sea level rise
[IPCC, 2013]
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PgC/an ppm °C
Higher scenario : emissions, concentration and temperatures continue to grow
Carbone emission, CO2 concentrations and global temperature: time constants
Courtesy L. Bopp
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PgC/an ppm °C
Higher scenario : emissions, concentration and temperatures continue to growMedium scenario : to stabilize CO2 concentration 550 ppm, emissions need to be
strongly reduced. However, temperature will continue to increase
Carbone emission, CO2 concentrations and global temperature: time constants
Courtesy L. Bopp
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PgC/an ppm °C
Higher scenario : emissions, concentration and temperatures continue to growMedium scenario : to stabilize CO2 concentration 550 ppm, emissions need to be
strongly reduced. However, temperature will continue to increaseLower Scenario : to limit a 2° global warming, CO2 concentration has to be limited to less
then 450 ppm, and emissions need be to be 0 before the end of the century
Carbone emission, CO2 concentrations and global temperature: time constants
Courtesy L. Bopp
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Temperature increase as a function of cumulative CO2
emissions.
[IPCC, AR5]
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I. Emergence of climate and climate change science
II. Climate modeling
III.Climate and climate change simulations
IV.Focus on some climate phenomena
V. Climate changes and climate variability
VI.Conclusions
Outlook
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Precipitation changes
10 3 42
∆Ts
10 3 42
∆Ts
∆Q
/Q (
%)
∆P
/P (
%)
Change of the amount of water vapor H2O vs change of the average surface
temperature
∆Q/Q (%) ≈ 7.5 ∆Ts ∆P/P (%) ≈ 1.5 ∆Ts
The change of the global average precipitation does not depend directly from the change of global average water vapor
(Vecchi & Soden, 2007)
Change of precipitation vs change of the average surface temperature
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41
63Radiation
Evaporation80
17Sensible
Absorbed byatmosphere
78
Latent Heat80
Adapted from [Trenberth & Fasullo, 2012]
The change of the global average precipitation is constrained by the radiative cooling of the atmosphere
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Precipitation changes:Geographical distribution
Relative change in average precipitation, RCP8.5 scenario (2081-2100)
[IPCC, AR5]39 CMIP5 models
High signal/noise ratio and models agree
Low Signal/noise ratio
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ΔP ≈ ω ΔQ + Q Δωω
QP
ω
Thermodynamic response(specific humidity)
Precipitations changes
Dynamic response
Precipitation changes
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Precipitation changes
At the global scale:
• Precipitation increases in some regions while deceasing in others
• the contrast between wet and dry regions is expected to increase
• same with the contrast between wet and dry seasons
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I. Emergence of climate and climate change science
II. Climate modeling
III.Climate and climate change simulations
IV.Focus on some climate phenomena
V. Climate changes and climate variability
VI.Conclusions
Outlook
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in thousands of years since the present
after [IPCC, AR5, 2013]
CO2
ΔT tropic
ΔT Antarctic
Paleoclimate changes
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Simulation of Last Glacial Maximum (LGM)
Insolation21ky BP
Ice sheet
AOGCM
cf. http://pmip3.lsce.ipsl.fr
Atmospheric compositionCO2: 185 ppmCH4: 350 ppb...
Greenhouse gas forcing ~ future climateOther main forcings: ice sheet
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Change in surface temperature
Difference between 2100 et 1990
(°C)
Model : IPSL-CM5A-LR
0 4 8-4-8 2 6-2-6
Difference between current and last glacial maximum
periods
RCP2.6
RCP8.5
Glacial
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Land-sea contrasts and polar amplification in past and future climates
Last Glacial Maximum main forcings
Greenhouse gasesCO2: 185 ppm, CH4:350 ppb …
Ice-sheets
LGM climate reconstructions
Land data (pollen and plant macrofossils): Bartlein et al, Clim Dynam 2011Ocean data (multi proxy): MARGO, NGS 2009Ice-core data: Masson-Delmotte et al pers. comm
Relationships between LGM vs higher CO2 climates? Are the large scale relationships stable? Can we evaluate them from paleodata ?
Note: all model averages calculated from grid points where LGM data is available
Example:Land sea contrasts
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Annual global mean
Surface temperature evolution:observation and models
[IPCC, 2013]
Winter mean over France
Summer mean over France
[Terray et Boé, 2013]
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Simulations
Easterling and Wehner, 2009
Climate changes and climate variability
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50-year trend in winter temperature (°C/50 yrs)For an « intermediate high » scenario
[Deser et al., 2014]
Climate changes and climate variability
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[Deser et al., 2014]
Climate changes and climate variability
50-year trend in winter temperature (°C/50 yrs)
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Internal variability and variations due to forcings
Climate variations have different origines:
Internal variability
Response to natural forcings
Response to anthropogenic forcings
variation
Natural variability
The relative importance of these various termes depends on the spatial and time average considered, and on the amplitude of the forcings
The differences between observations and models or between model results can include part or all of these terms, depending on the experimental setup
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I. Emergence of climate and climate change science
II. Climate modeling
III.Climate and climate change simulations
IV.Understanding some climate phenomena
V. Climate changes and climate variability
VI.Conclusions
Outlook
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1988: Establishment of the IPCC
1970-1980: First climate change projections with numerical climate models
1897: S. Arrhenius: first estimate of CO2 role
1937: G. Callendar: new estimate of CO2
role
Climate change was predicted before being observed
[IPCC 2013]
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First climate change projections have been confirmed by observations and are still relevant
[IPCC 2013]
4
0
2
Acc
rois
sem
ent d
e te
mp.
(°C
)
[ Hansen et al. 1981]Observations(posteriro)Mean over 10 years
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● Global warming and the dominant role of human activities is now well understood and well established
● Numerical climate modelling is based on phenomenological equations (physical, chemical…)
● If emission of greenhouse gases continue to increase, future climate changes will be dramatic compared to those that have existed for 15,000 years
●Climate change questions are evolving: moving from alerting to quantifying, describing and anticipating associated risks
●There is a major qualitative shift in the requirements regarding climate models. Importance of representing processes and understanding climate phenomena
● The more we look at regional phenomena, short time scales (decades) or extreme phenomena, the more uncertainties and natural variability become important.
Conclusions
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Thank you for your attentionThank you for your attention
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Fs
FS1−a FS.a/2
FS.a/2F0
Ts4=
F0
1−a/2
The CO2 greenhouse effect and the
« saturation » paradox
CO2 concentration (ppm)
Atm
osph
eric
abs
orpt
ion
Mean atmospheric absorption in the infrared
How can the greenhouse effect increase if the atmospheric absorption don't?
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Saturation of absorption bandsAbsorption by CO2, for a vertical column of atmosphere
Absorption spectra, for 3 CO2 concentrations and two
narrow bands
Total absorption of the two narrow bands
[Bohren and Clothiaux 2006]
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Infrared absorption of the atmosphere as a function of CO2, for different
values of H20
wavelength (μm)
Different CO2 concentrationDifferent H
2O concentration
Infrared absorption of the atmosphere
CO2 concentration (ppm)
Atm
osph
eric
abs
orpt
ion
abso
rptio
n
wavelength (μm)
abso
rptio
n
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Net solar radiation Net solar radiation FFss
temperature T
Outgoing longwave radiation FFirir
temperature T temperature Ta) b) c)
CO2 increase and greenhouse effect
FFirir= FFss
FFss
altit
ude
Z
FFirir
FFss
FFirir
FFss
FFirir
FFirir< FFss FFirir
= FFss
Z Z
Z1
Z2
Z2
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And in a simpler world? Precipitation changes in response to a uniform increase of temperature of 4K for aqua-planets
A large fraction of the spread in precipitation changes originates from fundamental problems in water-vapor-temperature-circulation interactions
[Stevens & Bony, 2013]
(%)
Precipitation changes