philippine economic update 2015

7/23/2019 Philippine Economic Update 2015

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Philippine Economic Update 2015



Philippine economy rose 5.6% in 2015 1st-3rd QtrsPosted faster 6% growth in 3rd Qtr • Recent growth supported by strong macroeconomic fundamentals,

i.e., stable inflation, interest rates, and fiscal & external position.

• Higher growth trajectory amid “new mediocre” condition in developed

economies, and “new normal” in China and developing countries.

• Low middle-income economy with US$2,850 per capita in 2014.

Basic data: National Accounts, NSCB, various years WB Indicators 2015

6,303 6,485 6,7217,055 7,528 7,888 8,301

8,850 9,218 9,32410,036 10,403

11,11011,908

12,634

9,528

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 S1

GDP, in Bil lion Pesos at Constant Prices

2000 – 2015 Q3

GDP constant

4.4%

6.2%

5.6%

GDP /cap US$2,850

GNI /cap US$3,440

GDP /cap US$8,300 (PPP)



Manufacturing, financial, real estate slowed downConstruction and transport accelerated

Agriculture,1,428

Mining,125

Manufacturing,2,604

Construction,828

Utilities, 412

Trans &Comm, 783

Trade, 2,243

FinancialSvcs, 989

R.E. & BusinessSvcs, 1,553

Public Admin,503

Other Services,

1,174

GDP by sector (in bi llion PHP) 2014

* Others include education, health, hotels &restaurants, recreation, and others

Growth of GDP by sector, %

Sector 2014 Q1-Q3 2015 Q1-Q3

Agriculture 0.5 0.4

Mining 4.7 -3.9

Manufacturing 8.5 5.4

Construction 7.1 8.9Utilities 2.2 4.9

Transport & Communication 6.8 7.4

Trade 6.6 6.7

Financial services 6.7 5.4

Real estate & business svcs 8.4 7.0

Other services 3.8 8.2

GDP 6.0 5.6

Source: National Accounts, NSCB. November2015



Economic activities concentrated in LuzonCentral Visayas and Davao regions lead Vismin

Source: National Accounts, NSCB. May2015

Region GDP/cap, PhP

PHILIPPINES 126,579

NCR 365,629

Calabarzon 141,891

Cordi llera Autonomous 132,612

Central Visayas 113,391

Davao 107,479

Northern Mindanao 104,242

Central Luzon 104,081

Ilocos 77,929

Soccsksargen 77,662

Mimaropa 72,041

Zamboanga 70,074

Cagayan Valley 68,317

Western Visayas 66,757

Caraga 59,941

Eastern Visayas 59,654

Bicol 45,798

ARRM 30,602



Consumer spending sustainedClothing rebounded 3.9% in 3rd qtr from declines in 1st -2nd qtrs

• Food & beverages growth increased

• Above-average growth in transport, recreation, restaurants, & alcoholic bevs.

Food &beverages

Alcoholicbeverages

Clothing

HousingutilitiesFurnishings

Health

Transport

Communication

Recreation

Education

Restauranthotels Others

Consumer spending by category(in billion PHP) 2014

Growth of consumer spending by category, %

Category 2014 Q1-Q3 2015 Q1-Q3

Food & beverages 4.3 5.7

Alcoholic beverages 11.1 6.5

Clothing 5.3 -4.5

Housing & utilities 4.8 2.7Furnishings 5.9 2.0

Health 13.1 8.2

Transport 11.4 11.9

Communication 2.3 6.5

Recreation 4.0 9.2

Education 5.4 3.0

Restaurants & hotels 8.7 10.3

Miscellaneous 5.4 7.9

Total spending 5.6 6.1Source: National Accounts, NSCB. January2015

Source: National Accounts, NSCB. November2015



Vastly improved overall competitiveness

Ranked 47 nd overall.

Source: WEF Competitiveness Report 2015-2016, WB Indicators 2015

Strengths

► Market size and GDP

► Staff training

► Financial market development

► Business sophistication

Problematic factors

► Inefficient bureaucracy (77 th )

► Inadequate supply of infrastructure (90th )

► Corruption (despite 48 ranks jump to 77 th )

► Complexity of tax regulations

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

1 9 9 0

1 9 9 1

1 9 9 2

1 9 9 3

1 9 9 4

1 9 9 5

1 9 9 6

1 9 9 7

1 9 9 8

1 9 9 9

2 0 0 0

2 0 0 1

2 0 0 2

2 0 0 3

2 0 0 4

2 0 0 5

2 0 0 6

2 0 0 7

2 0 0 8

2 0 0 9

2 0 1 0

2 0 1 1

2 0 1 2

2 0 1 3

GDP (PPP) per capi ta (in t'l $), 1990-2014

Philippines Emerging and Developing Asia

Key indicators, 2014

Population (in millions) …………………………. 99.4

GDP (US$ billions) …………………………….. 284.0

GDP per capita (US$) …………………………. 2,865

GDP (PPP) as share (%) of the world total ……0.64

Global Competitiveness Index

Rank Score

(out of 140) (1-7)

GCI 2015-2016 ………………................ …47 …….. 4.4

GCI 2014-2015(out of 144) ........ ...........… 52 …….. 4.4

GCI 2013-2014(out of 148) ........ ...........… 59 …….. 4.3

GCI 2012-2013(out of 144) ........ ...........… 65 …….. 4.2

GCI 2011-2012(out of 142) ........ ...........… 75 …….. 4.1



Thank you

philippine economic update 2015

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